The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre

Let me see if I have this right Adrian Beltre.

Your contract for next season is a player option for $5 million dollars. That option moves to $10 million dollars if he picked up 640 plate appearances this season – a total you hadn’t reached since the 2006 season. On Thursday you picked up plate appearance 640 triggering the clause. On Friday, you told the team you were going to miss the last three games of the season to be with your pregnant wife who has just gone into labor.

Coincidence?

I love a good conspiracy as much as the next fella – you should see the 50+ JFK books in my library – but I’m not going to start something here other than to say I find it highly coincidental that the day after his contract option doubled Beltre decided to end his season. In truth, it matters little anyway since he is nearly certain to turn down the 1-year extension in his hope of landing one last, huge, big money deal. Does he deserve a big deal? Let’s examine his career track record before we render our judgment.

(1) Beltre will be 32 years old in April of next season. Based upon current training methods, it is reasonable to expect that he could be a useful everyday player for another 4-5 years. That would seem to indicate that he could be in line for a nice deal.

(2) Beltre is a good player, much better than he is often given credit for. He is an excellent defensive third basemen, always has been, but the quickness you need to play third base at a high level often starts to dissipate right about the age that Beltre currently is.

(3) While a strong hitter with a good track record, there is a major concern with Beltre. The two best seasons of his career, the only two that can legitimately be labeled as difference making seasons, just so happened to occur the two years he was heading into free agency. In 2004 he had arguably the greatest hitting season by a third baseman in history as he hit .334 with 48 homers, 121 RBI, 104 runs scored, 200 hits and a 1.017 OPS. This season he hit .321-28-102-84 with 189 hits an a .919 OPS.

Not once, other than those two seasons just referenced, has he ever had 100 RBI.

Not once, other than those two seasons, has he ever had 170 hits a season.

Not once, other than those two seasons, has he ever hit over .290.

Not once, other than those two seasons, has he ever posted an OPS over .850.

You’re starting to get the point right?

(4) Still, I don’t want to short Beltre who is good, just not great, hitter. From 2002 through 2010, each of the eight seasons that he had at least 500 at-bats he hit 19 homers with 75 RBI (he missed out in 2009 when he had eight homers and 44 RBI in 449 ABs). Again not great numbers, but at the same time he is the only third baseman in baseball who has pulled off the 19-75 double in eight of the past nine seasons.

In the end, just hope that your favorite team doesn’t open up the vault to sign a player who is nearing the decline phase of his career. Beltre should be a very productive player for the next handful of seasons, but do yourself a favor and look for a series of 20 homer, 80 RBI efforts or you are going to be left feeling like you got stuck with the dinner tab like Dez Bryant just did by his Cowboys’ teammates.

Three's Company

I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.

Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town

Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS

Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.

Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well

Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.

On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).

Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.

2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB

If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.

Who Am I?

I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.

I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.

I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.

I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.

Any idea who I might be?

No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?

I pitch for the Dodgers.

I’ve been in the United States for three years.

My name is Hiroki Kuroda.

Will someone please show me some respect?

Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)

By Ray Flowers

Numbers: A Look Back

Each week I write a piece entitled By The Numbers where I break down all forms of interesting information from the baseball diamond. In this entry I’m gonna take that same idea but go back in time with my time machine as I’ll list a bunch of interesting numbers and facts that pertain to players that have been immortalized in the HOF.

Luis Aparacio led the AL in steals in each of his first nine seasons in the league (his high was 56). From 1960-64 he stole 51, 53, 31, 40 and 57 bases each season. While none of those totals are outlandish, it should be pointed out that the game was played differently back then with base runners rarely attempting a steal. In fact, during that five year only one other rival was able to steal as many as 30 bases in a season.

Yogi Berra is one of the greatest hitting catchers of all-time (11 times he went deep 20 times and nine times he produced at least 90 RBI). He also won the MVP award on three separate occasions. But perhaps the most amazing number of all in his career is the fact that he struck out 12 times, twelve, in 1950 over the span of 597 at-bats. He was no slap hitter that year either producing a batting line of .322 with 28 homers and 124 RBI for the Yankees.

Sandy Koufax led the NL in ERA each of the last five seasons of his career (he had to retire with elbow problems at the age of merely 30). Three times he posted a mark below 1.90, and his five year run resulted in an overall ERA of 1.95 in that time. He also went 111-34 during that five year year of excellence for the Dodgers (.766 winning percentage).

Juan Marichal led baseball with 191 victories during the 1960′s. Three times in that decade he won at least 25 games, but he was never able to win the Cy Young award

Bill Mazeroski made the Hall of Fame despite the fact that he never hit even .285 in a season. Moreover his career mark was .260, he had a pathetic .299 OBP, and his career OPS was a frightening .267. He did however make six All-Star teams while also winning eight Gold Gloves as one of the finest fielding second basemen of all-time. It’s ironic that he is most remembered for hitting the first walk-off homer in World Series history in Game 7 when the Pirates defeated the Yankees in 1960 on his blast.

Amos Rousie is a HOF pitchers who won 246 games in his career with a 3.07 ERA from 1889-1901 (he won 30-games 4-straight seasons). Still, he was far from a control artist as he led the league in walks five straight seasons with a high of 289 batters in 1890, the most ever in a single season. At the same time you’ll want to cut the guy a little bit of slack since he tossed 548.2 innings in that season. In fact, in the five seasons that he led the league in walks, each season with at least 200 free passes, he never threw less than 444 innings. During that fateful season of 1890 his BB/9 rate was 4.74 which is actually a hair lower than the 4.78 mark that Scott Kazmir currently has to lead the “worst” list of 2010.

Hoyt Wilhelm was the first pitcher in big league history to win the ERA title despite the fact that he spent the entire season in the bullpen. In 1952, his rookie season mind you, Hoyt led the league with a 2.43 ERA and 71 games pitched. Since the NL played 154 games that year, his total of 159.1 innings was enough for him to qualify for the ERA title. He won 15 games and saved 11 on his way to another league leading figure, a .833 winning percentage.

Ted Williams won the Triple Crown in 1942 (.356-36-137) and 1947 (.343-32-114). He didn’t win the MVP in either season as he finished second in ’42 and ’47. Amazingly, Williams also led the league in OBP each season (.499 and .497) as well as SLG (.648 and .634) yet he still wasn’t awarded the trophy. Moreover, and this is truly amazing, from 1941-42, and 1946-49 (he missed 1943-45 serving in World War II), Williams led the AL in OBP and SLG in each and every season. All told, he led the AL in both slash categories an amazing nine times. As great as Albert Pujols is he has done that only one time (in 2009).

By Ray Flowers

The Curious Case of Vicente Padilla

Baseball is a wonderful game. It can make you cry sending you into the depths of despair when your team lets you down. On the flip side, the smile that emerges when your team emerges victorious — there’s not much that compares to that. Another wonderful aspect of the game is that it continues to bring forth intriguing stories. One of those story-lines as we get ready to kick off the second half of the 2010 season is The Curious Case of Vicente Padilla.

Padilla is an enigma. On his best days he is nearly impossible to hit with an assortment of hard, darting stuff, that is complimented by a 65 mph curveball. On his worst days he fails to throw strikes, looks lost on the hill, loses his focus, and can get battered by the opposition. This season for the Dodgers we’ve mostly seen the “good” Padilla. The question before us is this: which Padilla is gonna show up in the second half?

Since returning from the DL has had made five appearances. If we remove his first outing in which he gave up four runs in 5.1 innings, Padilla has pitched well enough to shame Clayton Kershaw. In those four starts, besides going 3-1, Vicente has lasted at least 6.2 innings each time, has allowed two or fewer runs each time (1.57 ERA), and has been electric with 27 strikeouts compared to a mere three walks. That’s pretty damn impressive.

Let’s take a look at Padilla’s work in 2010 compared to his career level of achievement.

2010: 8.73 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 5.40 K/BB
Career: 6.30 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 1.99 K/BB
Are you kidding with this? Pitchers don’t add two strikeouts to their career average in their 12th season at 33 years of age. The also don’t cut their walk rate in half. Furthermore, Padilla has never had K/9 rate above 7.70, has only one season above 7.0 the past eight years, and hasn’t seen a BB/9 mark below 3.15 since 2004. This data clearly points to his first half success being a fluke.

2010: 17/47/46 (Line drive, ground ball, fly ball rates)
Career: 20/46/34
This one is almost as crazy as the strikeout and walk rates. Padilla, who owns a 1.37 GB/FB ratio is his career, is all the way down at 0.80 this season. He’s also got a career low line drive mark (it’s never been below 18.4 percent), while his fly ball rate is astronomical (more than 12 percentage points above his career level). This clearly isn’t a change for the better. When that line drive rate increases, and his BABIP (.264) rises (it’s .301 for his career and has been over that mark each of the past four seasons), the ratios will adjust.

2010: 4.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Career: 4.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Padilla hasn’t posted an ERA below his career average since 2003. Think about that. For each of the past six years he hasn’t even been Padilla average which, by the way, is pretty poor. In fact, the past six years his ERA has been 4.74 which is worse than the league average of 4.40. As for his WHIP, he has been league average there for his entire career. He’s also failed to post a mark better than his career average since 2004 while each of the last three seasons he has been at 1.64, 1.46 and 1.43. He just isn’t going to be able to keep up his current pace, no way, no how.

Hopefully you’ve been paying attention. Vicente Padilla is on a wonderful hot streak right now that means he could easily be a valuable member of your starting rotation – for the moment. Sooner or later, and I’m betting sooner, his production will revert to his previous established level of mediocrity, so take my advice and play up his recent hot spell to deal him to an unsuspecting league mate who is unacquainted with the analysis we’ve just been through.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May27, 2010

(1) No new injury with Jacoby Ellsbury. A DL trip is still possible though. Victor Martinez also out with his toe issue.

(2) Carlos Zambrano has appendicitis? A report says he was taken to the hospital.

(3) Carlos Marmol on amazing K pace – a historic one.

(4) John Ely is the real deal for the Dodgers.

(5) Matt Lindstrom blows 1st save chance in 23 tries.

(6) B.J. Upton struggling terribly in May.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April14, 2010

(1) Is Jonathan Sanchez more valuable than Clayton Kershaw?

(2) Closer mayhem – what about SOLDS?

(3) Denard Span struggling, still walking.

(4) B.J. Upton showing life.

(5) Jason Kendall and Ryan Sweeney have hitting streaks.

(6) Jorge Cantu making history.

(7) Jonny Gomes continues to pound the ball.

(8) Jimmy Rollins placed on DL.

For more about the numbers of the game make sure you give the following two articles a read:

By The Numbers – Hitters

By The Numbers – Pitchers

By Ray Flowers

Finding Sanity in the Madness

It’s been a long week. I’ve been busy as hell with work trying to get all my ducks in a row so I can head off to Las Vegas next week for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, and I seem to have pulled a muscle in my chest while I was maxing out my bench press (I think I had two 10 lbs plates on both sides). I know, it’s a tough life I lead isn’t it? If the biggest worries I have are about whether or not I can do 10 reps or 12 on the bench, or whether or not I can finish that massive margarita from Paris Las Vegas (that thing is like two feet tall in the shape of the Eiffel Tower), then life isn’t all bad. I know that drink doesn’t sound too masculine by the way, but who wouldn’t want to get bombed on $20 – am I right?

Some sports related thoughts after that random opening stanza.

* So much for Lance Berkman’s knee being OK. Turns out he will need minor knee surgery which could keep him out of action for 2-4 weeks, though Berkman still insists he can make opening day. “I don’t anticipate having any lingering effects from it. They said it’s about a three-to-four-week recovery period, so I’m hoping it’s closer to three weeks and I will be ready for Opening Day.” By the way, one of my expert league teams that was drafted last week has Berkman, Brian Roberts and Russell Martin – all injured – on it. Gotta love those early preseason drafts don’t you?

** I have nothing to say about Jesse Carlson. I just loved the picture so much that I had to find a way to bring up his name. What is that, My Little Pony?

* The hype machine continues to motor along in overdrive with Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban fireballer of the Reds. He struck out two in two scoreless innings again the Dodgers on Friday, and his fastball was once again recorded at 100 mph. As they say you can’t teach heat, and with each solid outing the temptation grows for the club to open the year with him on the roster. I think it would make sense for him to start in the minors if for no other reason than to allow him time to acclimatize himself to the American way of life, but here is a very important comparison that I haven’t seen listed anywhere – Chapman is actually 19 days older than the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.

* Bobby Jenks gave up five runs while recording two outs on Friday running his spring performance to seven runs in 1.2 innings. He’s lost weight and changed his outlook to improve his life, but let’s hope he didn’t leave his focus somewhere in the offseason.

* The Mets are a disaster. Contradictory news on the health of Carlos Beltran in the offseason followed up by the latest setback with Jose Reyes are but two of the biggest issues the club is dealing with. I’m no doctor and I know they often rule things out 1-by-1 cause they themselves don’t really know what’s going on sometimes, but the club from New York certainly seems to be having an inordinate number of issues with the diagnosis of injuries and the dissemination of the results.

* Mike Napoli hit his fourth homer on Friday. The guy can rake. Problem is his defense is only so-so which has limited his ability to be in the lineup every day (Jeff Mathis has the exact opposite issue, he can field but he ain’t so good with a bat in his hands). It’s probably sheer folly, but if Napoli were to garner 400 at-bats this season, while maintaining his career levels, he would produce a season of about .256-24-66. You know how many catchers reached all three of those levels last season? The answer is one – Joe Mauer.

Here are links to some of the recent stories that I have penned for those of you who need a little something to read over the weekend.

Breaking Down: Jhonny Peralta.

Breaking Down: Cody Ross.

Breaking Down: Alfonso Soriano.

Is there anything to the belief that 27 year old players blow up merely because of their age? I give my thoughts in two pieces.

27-Year-Olds: Hitters.
27-Year-Olds: Pitchers.

These two articles give my thoughts on why you should pass on some of the guys being taken early in draft since you can likely find similar production much later on.

Taking Sides: First Base.

Taking Sides: Second Base.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 11, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes thyroid update – out 1-7 weeks.

(2) Brian Roberts (back) ready for BP.

(3) Brandon Webb likely to start year on DL.

(4) Lance Berkman continues to be bothered by knee. Will visit doctor again.
Note: After this video was made, it was announced that Berkman would have minor surgery on his knee and likely miss 2-4 weeks.

(5) Shawn Marcum looking good in camp, might start opening day for Blue Jays.

(6) David Price and his hand are OK after being hit by bat.

(7) Brian Giles decides to hang up the spikes.

Oh, and for those of you out there with teenagers – or for those of you who can’t get enough of vampires or stories of timeless love – the first trailer for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse came out today. Make fun of me all you want, you know you’re clicking on the link to check it out.

By Ray Flowers

The Week that Was

With the Academy Awards due to be handed out this weekend, I thought I would take a break from all the face time I give myself with my video segments in Around the Horn. I wouldn’t want to make the “professionals” look bad. So today all you’ll get is my razor sharp wit through the written word.

* How great is it to have baseball games, and therefore box scores, to watch/read each day? I’m fortunate as hell to have my job, who wouldn’t want to immerse themselves in sports all day, and that point is squarely driven home when I can turn on the MLB Network at 10 AM and get the chance to watch a spring training ballgame. Priceless.

* Did you catch my recent review of the Dodgers’ third baseman Casey Blake? In case you missed it, here is a morsel to get you to click on over. “Did you know that over the past three years that Blake has hit at least .270-18-78-7… only he and Alex Rodriguez can make that claim at third base.”

* Peter Gammons came out and said that Delmon Young looked great and that he thinks he has finally figured it out. I give my thoughts on the young outfielder in Breaking Down: Delmon Young. “He is also one of just 21 guys who have had at least 400 plate appearances in each of the past three years who has hit at least .284 in each of those seasons.”

* Are you as confused as I am with all the uncapped NFL stuff? Sorry I slipped there and mentioned the pigskin. I guess it’s just a left over reflex from the recently completed season.

* Can Bobby Jenks hold down the White Sox closers spot in 2010? He’s in better physical shape and is ready to attack hitters again. Read about him in Breaking Down: Bobby Jenks? “Jenks has posted at least 29 saves in each of the past four seasons. There are only seven men in the group that have accomplished that: Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero and of course Jenks.”

* Since I slipped and mentioned football above, I thought I might as well reference my NHL Trade Diary piece as well. I tell you, I literally sat at my computer for eight straight hours the day of the trade deadline writing that piece. That isn’t hyperbole either. I literally was at the ready for about seven hours and 55 minutes as I only took about five minutes out of that time to get a few drinks (juice, not booze), go to the bathroom a couple of times, and to stock up on granola bars that I ate throughout the day. What I do for my craft. You should have seen more poor back at the end of the day. Cue the violins.

* It’s not the be all end all of pitching analysis, but did you catch my creation to measure pitchers effectiveness called Average Bases Allowed? I think it should replace WHIP in fantasy leagues, even if few agree with me.

* Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes as the Yankees fifth starter? I’m already tired of the debate. Face it everyone – ALMOST EVERY HURLER WOULD BE MORE DOMINATING OUT OF THE BULLPEN. I mean seriously, how many times have you heard “…Joba loses about five mph when he starts, he just loses his willingness to attack hitters.” Um, sorry morons, he’s throwing five mph slower because he has to last for 100 pitches, not 20 like he did when he worked out of the pen. Memo to the Yankees – leave Joba in the rotation, remove the stupid Joba Rules, or just move the guy to the bullpen forever. It’s not that complicated is it?

I’m out.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Spring Training Begins

(1) Eric Gagne to sign with Rockies?
*After this video was made, Gagne signed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal.

(2) Ted Lilly having knee issues.

(3) Brad Lidge struggles due to tipping pitches?

(4) Blue Jays arms on the mend – Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum.

(5) Brian Roberts dealing with back spasms.

(6) Wade Davis – no IP limit with Rays?

(7) Cliff Lee’s foot progressing well. Should throw next week.

(8) Joel Hanrahan having elbow issues. May need surgery.

By Ray Flowers