Do Sleepers Exist?

There was an article posted today at Fanball called 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers. First off, I have a huge problem with the term “sleeper.” It’s so ingrained in our minds that when it is left out of a draft guide or preseason preview we get tons of emails asking how we could be so stupid as to not including such an article in our coverage.

Honestly though, what good is a “sleeper” article? In 1994 there was a point to it, but that time has long passed. In the “old days” before the internet blew up, data was hard to come by. Only those that really attempted to ferret it out were able to find it. However, information is everyone at this point. You can get it online for free – just like you do here at BaseballGuys – and you can find information everyone on the internet if you want to pay a few bucks. There are also shows on television dealing only with fantasy baseball, and I host a daily radio on Sirius/XM Radio where we talk about fantasy sports three hours a day (5-8 PM, EDT). The point is, with the data available in virtually every medium you could think of, there really are no true “sleepers” anymore. By draft day every player has been analyzed and worked over, so much so in many instances that a guy who was a sleeper in early January ends up being drafted in the 10th round in your mixed league draft in late March.

I think the best we can do is to put forward a list of players who are likely to be undervalued on draft day, though again, that value is completely arbitrary and will be determined totally based upon how those in your league value the players (if you buy Daric Barton in New York he might cost $7, but try purchasing him for less than $10 if you live in California).

Here are the names that were on the “sleeper” list I refered to at the top of the piece. In what follows I give my own thoughts on each (each writer took one player and gave his reasons why that guy should be a draft day target in the original piece).

Pedro Alvarez: He hit a combined 29 homers last season between Triple-A and the majors, but he also struck out a shameful 187 times. With such a poor approach at the dish, Alvarez is much more Adam Dunn than he is Ryan Zimmerman. Still, he has a shot to be a top-10 third basemen.

Mike Aviles: In his two healthy seasons he has hit better than .300. Do you know how many .300 seasons that Chase Utley has? Try two. Aviles seems capable of going 10/10 as well, and though his run producing is suspect, only nine players hit .300 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 2010.

Homer Bailey: He still needs to work on his secondary stuff, but Bailey pitched really well over his last 10 starts with a 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 59 Ks in 58.1 innings. He seems locked into a starting role with the Reds, and despite seeming like he has been around forever, Homer is just 24 years old.

Jay Bruce: He is a huge breakout candidate after his dynamic finish (.338-15-29 over his last 43 games) in 2010. However, that finish will have Bruce on everyone’s list of breakout candidates in 2011. There is no disputing that the youngster could be a huge run producer, and he has seen his walk rate improve each year, but the strikeouts are a concern.

Lorenzo Cain: He hit for average and flashed speed in 43 games after hitting .317 with 26 thefts in 84 games in the minors. Cain has hit .291 in the minors in his career, but it’s hard to envision him continuing to hit so well in a full season of work. The Royals believe in him as he was part of the package of players they received for Zack Greinke.

Starlin Castro: He was awful on the base paths with a 56 percent stolen base rate, and he closed out the year on a down note hitting .232 over his last 23 games. Someone will likely pay top dollar for a guy who might be merely solid in 2011 though he did hit .300 last year while not being able to legally pull back on a bottle of Jack.

Chris Coghlan: While his production was down in year two you can take solace in the fact he closed strong hitting .312 over his last 42 games. As a result, he is slated to start the year as the Marlins leadoff hitter. The knee he injured in a post game celebration should be fine for the start of games, but I worry about his ability to handle center field, the position he is currently slated to play.

Aaron Hill: This is the player in the review I referenced. Here is what I wrote.

“Let me construct this rather obvious case in three steps. (1) Even though he ‘struggled’ in 2010, Hill was tied for fourth amongst second basemen in homers with 26. He has 62 homers in the last two seasons, second most at the position (Dan Uggla has 64). (2) Hill has 176 RBI over the past two years, third most at second base. Clearly he is an elite power option. (3) From 2006-09, Hill hit at least .286 three times and he possesses a career .270 average. However, he hit just .205 in 2010. What in the hell happened? Hill owns a career line drive rate of 18.5 percent, slightly below the big league average (20 percent), but somehow that number dropped to a mere 10.6 percent last year. That’s roughly the equivalent to Adam Dunn hitting about 21 homers. Hill had the absolute worst LD-rate and BABIP (.196) in baseball, and there is about as much chance of that happening again in 2011 as there is of me getting a mid-season call up to the Giants. If he maintains his power from the last two years, he’ll go deep 31 times with 88 RBI, while matching his career .270 average would given him one hell of a season. Hello, Dan Uggla.”

Jonathan Niese: He made 30 starts for the Mets posting a 4.20 ERA. However, that’s somewhat deceiving; Niese had a 3.76 ERA after 28 starts before he was tanked in his last two outings (*12 ER in 8.1 innings). His numbers were sort of Doug Davis-ish with a 1.46 WHIP, 148 Ks and 62 walks in 173.2 innings. If he can locate his pitches, and keep the walks down, his ERA could easily be in the 3′s in 2011.

Jordan Zimmerman: A potential ace who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, Zimmerman is the classic “sleeper” who everyone will talk up to the point that he won’t be drafted like one. He should be 100 percent this season, and with a 8.76 K/9 and a 3.05 K/BB over 122.1 big league innings his future is definitely looking plenty bright.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 16, 2010

(1) Justin Morneau to DL.

(2) Doug Davis to DL. Yovani Gallardo likely not to need minor league work.

(3) Edison Volquez to start on Saturday.

(4) Jordan Zimmerman closing in on possibly August return.

(5) Chase Utley has cast removed.

(6) Shin-Soo Choo hopes to avoid surgery on thumb.

(7) Josh Beckett may need one or two more minor league starts.

(8) Mat Latos to DL with side strain – from a sneeze?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May17, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion activated off DL as Travis Snider is placed on it.

(2) Orioles get good news with Brian Roberts and Mike Gonzalez.

(3) Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury still working way back.

(4) Nick Johnson has wrist surgery – out 4-6 weeks.

(5) Jimmy Rollins back from DL.

(6) Mark DeRosa hopes to return next week and be effective.

(7) Doug Davis to DL giving Manny Parra a chance to start.

By Ray Flowers

What to Make of These Starters?

I was tempted to write about Brian Cushing and the whole PED issue as it pertains to football where drug use clearly isn’t taken seriously, but I have a date later tonight with a hot female friend and I didn’t want to get all worked up before it so I’ll save those comments for later in the week. Instead, I thought I would chronicle a handful of starting pitchers and give you my thoughts on whether or not they should be on your fantasy radar at the moment.

Bronson Arroyo has a 1.28 WHIP through seven starts, but that’s a dangerous number to pin your hopes on given his other numbers that include a 5.36 ERA and a 1.87 K/BB mark. In his two victories he has allowed three runs, and in his first start of the year he allowed one run to the Cardinals in eight innings, but he’s also had three outings in which he has allowed at least five earned runs making him a tough guy to roll with since you don’t know what you’re gonna get from start to start.

Luis Atilano is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA through four starts for the Nationals. Don’t be swayed by the power of the darkside though as Atilano has clearly made the same deal with Mephistopheles that Livan Hernandez has worked out. Atilano has a 0.92 BB/K mark, and while more analysis is certainly needed before pronouncing sentence on someone, he clearly isn’t someone you should be counting on even in NL-only leagues.

Doug Davis is 1-4 for the Brewers through seven starts. The good is his fantastic 8.64 K/9 mark (that mark has been 7.04 or lower in each of the past four seasons). The bad is that he s still walking everyone – his BB/9 mark is 4.86. Considering that he is giving up hits at a rate of once every three at-bats, it’s no surprise that his WHIP sits at 1.98. Even when he’s doing something right such as striking people out, he still can’t be trusted in fantasy leagues.

Kyle Kendrick has but one victory in his seven starts on the year, hardly a surprise given a 5.89 ERA and 1.55 WHIP that have led to at least four earned runs in five of his seven outings. Kendrick’s K/9 rate of 3.93 is atrocious, though it’s right on his career mark (3.92), and the resulting K/BB mark of 1.14 scream out ‘I’m in big trouble.’ When you add in six homers for a HR/9 mark of 1.47 it’s clear that Kendrick is holding on by a thread.

Nate Robertson is 3-3 in his first seven starts in the NL for the Marlins. Like the other listed above him however, I’m clearly not high on his chances of being overly successful this season. Robertson’s K/9 rate of 5.80 is below his already poor 6.09 career mark, and just like last season when he walked everyone (5.07 BB/9), Robertson has walked an average of 4.54 batters per nine this season, well above his 3.28 career mark. You simply can’t have long-term success with the 1.28 K/BB mark that he currently possesses. A large portion of his success has been derived from a career low 15.5 percent line drive rate (career 18.9) and the fact that his HR/F ratio is 9.1 percent (career 12.6). Unless he throws a whole bunch more strikes, when those last two numbers correct themselves things could get ugly in Florida.

Reds’ starting pitchers allowed five hits the past two days to the sad sack Pirates. Homer Bailey allowed four hits in a complete game shutout on Wednesday while Johnny Cueto pitched a on hitter in his shutout on Tuesday. Both hurlers warrant consideration in mixed leagues, with Cueto clearly being the more intriguing play (he has 33 Ks in 42 innings and his 2.75 K/BB mark is solid). At the same time, don’t over value what either man has done the past two days – after all they were facing the Pirates.

Finally, what do I do when I’m not sitting here at the computer banging away reports and videos on the world of sports? Of course I run night time missions that need to be filmed by infrared cameras. Think I’m kidding? Give Jed Wars – Operation Flamingo a view.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Signings: Jan.21, 2010

In this edition of Around the Horn (ATH) I’ll discuss the signings of Joel Pineiro (Angels), Doug Davis (Brewers), Octavio Dotel (Pirates), Joe Blanton (Phillies), Vincente Padilla (Dodgers), Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers) as well as situations with Aroldis Chapman and Geovany Soto.

By Ray Flowers

The Webb Conundrum

Brandon Webb, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Period. Alas, his wonky shoulder limited him to a mere four innings this season leaving the D’backs with one whopper of a decision to make in regards to the future of their organization: should they pick up the $8.5 million option on his contract, do they try to renegotiate the deal at a lower rate, or do they simply let him walk away? Before I get to what their decision appears to be, let me give some background on the situation.

(1) From 2005-2008 Webb tossed at least 220 innings each season. Webb was the only pitcher in baseball who tossed 220-innings in each season from ’05-’08 and he was one of only four who reached the 200-inning level in 5-straight years from 2004-08 (and he threw 208 innings in 2004 following up a 180.2 inning rookie season).

(2) Webb improved his victory total each season from 2004: seven, 14, 16, 18 and 22. From 2005-08 he was one of only six hurlers who won at least 14 games each season, and his total of 70 victories in that time were the most in baseball (Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana were second with 66).

(3) Webb posted an ERA below 3.60 in each season from 2004-08, a feat only two other hurlers could match (Oswalt and Santana again).

(4) Webb racked up at least 164 strikeouts in each of his six big league seasons. Only one other hurler was able to produce at least 160 Ks each year from 2003-08, and it was accomplished by the best lefty in baseball; Johan Santana.

(5) To wrap up this little review, here are the rakings of Webb in a variety of categories for the 2005-08 seasons.

927 IP, the best mark in baseball
70 wins, the best mark in baseball
3.23 ERA, the sixth best mark in baseball
727 strikeouts, the eighth best mark in baseball
10.98 base runners per nine, the 9th best mark in baseball.

Clearly, Webb was one of the most consistently excellent hurlers in the game, though he wasn’t always valued as highly as he should have been in the fantasy game.

Flash forward to 2009. Here is what we know.

Webb was unable to agree to a long-term contract with the D’backs after it was learned that tests on his shoulder showed some irregularities (the club was unable to secure insurance for the deal because of the state of his shoulder). Webb then went out, appeared in one game, had multiple setbacks in his recovery, and eventually was forced to go under the knife. Reports are that the procedure went well, there was less damage than feared, and that his recovery is on track. Given all that what are the D’backs going to do with Webb (officially they have five days after the end of the World Series to determine if they will pick up the $8.5 million option on his current deal)?

Currently the D’backs have a couple of big ticket items in the rotation in Dan Haren ($7.5 million this season) and Dough Davis ($8.75 million this season) and with dead weight like Eric Byrnes ($11 million next season), they are likely getting a bit nervous about their payroll given that across the street Coyotes of the NHL are in dire financial straights (Davis will be a free agent at the end of the year, so they will save a little there if they let him go). With those concerns, paying over $8 million to a guy coming off a season of four innings doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense – these aren’t the Yankees – so it may not happen. In fact, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that he believed that the club will try to sign Webb to 1-year, incentive laden deal instead of simply giving him $8.5 million for 2010.

Time will tell if that ends up being the right call or not, but if it was my money I’d tell Webb to sign on the dotted line with an incentive laden deal, probably one with a second year added on for some security in case he returned to full health, and let er’ rip (this may actually be Arizona’s thinking). But hey, I just write about this stuff and don’t sign anyone’s checks, though judging from the way that some sports teams run their organizations maybe that shouldn’t be the case. I will work for food and a roof over my head too, so if any organization out there needs a hand, just let me know.

By Ray Flowers

Ramblings of a Madman

Rambling – seems to be one of my talents anymore. I counted up all the words I have typed over the first half of the 2009 calendar year and the number falls somewhere between 750,000 and 1.5 billion. I didn’t get an exact count because I fell asleep and hit my head on the keyboard before I woke up. When I was able to focus my eyes, there was a really long number with a bunch of numbers that I didn’t recognize, something like 543,575,345. Rather than recount, I thought I would go with a rough guess, kind of like the United States when we do a census report.

Which D’backs starter has had worse luck so far this season, Dan Haren or Doug Davis?

Haren: 7-5, 2.19 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Davis: 3-8, 3.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Haren has certainly been vastly superior, but it’s not like Davis remotely deserves that atrocious record that he is saddled with.

What’s the deal with all these struggling guys getting a “mental” day off? I know it’s happened for years, after all it is pretty difficult to hit a 95 mph fastball or an 86 mph slider. Guess I’m just jealous as I get no love from my bosses who tell me ‘tough titty’ when I claim that I need a mental break. OK, they don’t say that, in fact they tell me that it wouldn’t hurt to take some time off from time to time, but it’s always fun to complain isn’t it? Regardless, it’s not like I have a girlfriend to occupy my time, and what other reason is there to avoid talking sports?

Paul Maholm has seen his ERA go up over a full run in less than a month from 3.61 on June 11th to 4.69 after getting blasted for six runs in 4.1 innings on Thursday. Hopefully you sold high on him when I suggested doing so. I’d give you the link where I wrote that, but you are just going to have to take my word for it since I write so much on a weekly basis (see above) that I have a hard time keeping things straight. OK, not true, I keep everything straight, though sometimes I do forget where my thoughts are listed amidst the fury of postings that I crank out everyday.

Anyone out there care about what “John and Kate Plus 8″ do with their lives? I swear, there has been more media coverage over the impending divorce of those two and how it will effect their eight children than there has been coverage over the passing of the King of Pop, Michael Jackson. Anyone can have a doctor put a bunch of embryos in their belly, but it takes some true talent to do what Jackson did. Why don’t we, and I include myself in this since I just mentioned them, let John and Kate just go back to their miserable lives and cover something truly newsworthy with our time?

Further proof that the Mets are having problems. Tim Redding was hit hard on Thursday to the tune of five runs while recording just seven outs. Redding now sports a 6.99 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP through eight starts. So tell me again, why is Oliver Perez being looked at as a bullpen option and not a starter? I know Oliver has all kinds of issues, chief among them locating his pitches, but if the team is going to go with the vanilla Redding on the hill, and that experiment will almost certainly end after this outing, doesn’t it make more sense to go with the guy who could throw a no-hitter any time he takes the hill in Perez? I’m just saying.

That Joey Votto kid continues to flat out rake. He had four more hits on Thursday to push his average up to .366 on the year thanks to 15 hits in 38 at-bats (.395) since returning from his DL stint because of depression.

Did you all see the flurry of NHL deals that occurred the first day of free agency. Crazy busy with some rather huge names switching teams. If you want to read my thoughts on those moves I can remember where I wrote them since I just finished putting the piece together. To read those thoughts give Frozen Pucks – Free Agent Edition, Part I a run through.

By Ray Flowers