Draft Day Challenge, May 9

I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Thursday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Joe Mauer
2. Carlos Ruiz

Mauer is always a good play, period. When he sees John Lackey on the hill he becomes an elite play. Mauer is 10-for-23 (.435) with a couple of big flies against the righty.

Ruiz hasn’t exactly started out on fire since he returned from his PED suspension, and he faces Patrick Corbin who has been nails this season. Still, Ruiz has always had success against lefties (.801 career OPS) and he’s also shown a nice power stroke against lefties with 16 homers and 76 RBIs over 573 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. James Loney
2. Brandon Belt

It’s time to give Loney some props for what has been a phenomenal start to his 2013 season. Not only is he batting .417 the past week but he’s hitting .385 on the season (who’s talking about that?). He’s only 2-for-9 against R.A. Dickey but the knuckleballer has allowed 14 runs over his last 19 innings while losing 3-straight games.

Belt has been in and out of the lineup, and he’s not exactly been impressive when on the field. So why suggest starting him Thursday? He faces Julio Teheran who has allowed batters to hit .333 off him this season pushing his career mark in 54.1 innings up to .301.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Daniel Murphy

Uggla is warming up at the dish (6-game hitting streak including three homers) and he faces Ryan Vogelsong who hasn’t exactly been impressive this season (for more on Vogelsong see Mound Mayhem).

Murphy faces lefty Jeff Locke. Murphy likes to face lefties. He’s batting .327 against them this year, he hit .283 against them last year, and for his career he’s hit .281 with eight homers and 63 RBIs over the course of 427 at-bats.

THIRD BASE
1. Martin Prado
2. Miguel Tejada

Prado has been up and down this season (he’s hitting a mere .227 on the year though he does have 19 runs scored in 33 games). He hasn’t exactly hammered Cole Hamels but he has produced 15 hits while striking out only five times in 55 at-bats.

Two veterans square off when Tejada faces Freddy Garcia. In 58 previous at-bats Tejada has hit .310 with 13 RBIs. He’s also hit well this season with seven hits in 19 at-bats (.368).

SHORTSTOP
1. Maicer Izturis
2. Stephen Drew

Izturis has three hits in seven at-bats against Mr. Price of the Rays. Izturis has also hit well the past week with a .286 mark over his last 21 at-bats.

Drew is finally locked in at the dish, and it’s been a while since we could say that (he’s hit .381 with a homer and five RBIs the past week). He’s had some moderate success against Mr. Correia with a .250 average, one homer and six RBIs, but I just feel good about the matchup. Sue me.

OUTFIELD
1. Shane Victorino
2. Jose Bautista

Normally Kevin Correia gets beaten up by a lot of folks. He’s been impressive this season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the Twins but look for Victorino to have some success given that he’s 6-for-14, a .429 average, with a homer and six RBIs.

Bautista hasn’t looked “right” for a large portion of the 2013 season, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid him in what seems like a really tough matchup on paper. Bautista has hit .355 with four homers and seven RBIs in 31 at-bats against David Price who hasn’t looked like himself for much of 2013 either.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. David Price
3. Jason Vargas
4. Doug Fister

Guthrie faces his old team, the Orioles, and he’s dominated the players currently on the roster holding them to a .167 average and .460 OPS over 48 at-bats. With a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season he seems like the proverbial must-start.

Look past the 6.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP of Price this season and you will note that there is still a lot going on there that is positive. Remove Mr. Bautista from current Jays players and you will find that Price has allowed just two homers in 152 at-bats to the rest of the club and that the rest of the unit is hitting just .230 against him as he has gone 12-2 with a 2.29 ERA against the Jays.

Vargas has held current Astros batters to two hits in 27 at-bats. He also tossed a nine inning shutout in his last outing and has dropped his ERA on the year down to 3.72.

And finally for those looking at early games, Fister is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. He faces the Nationals on the road, and batters have hit just .234 against him on the road this season.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Early Season Standouts

It’s early and I continue to preach patience in the fantasy baseball game. Hopefully you’re able to heed that advice. Whether you’ve made one move or 11 thus far is irrelevant though to what follows in this piece. I’m just gonna randomly touch on some players that have stood out to me in the early going, so here goes.

Chris Denorfia is a 4th outfielder who doesn’t play every day, but boy can he hit when called upon. Chris is hitting .395 in 38 at-bats this season and dating back to the start of last season he has hit .303 with a .357 OBP over 386 at-bats. He doesn’t have a ton of pop, 11 homers in that time, but he also has a sneaky 15 steals. He’s a great option in NL-only leagues.

Doug Fister improved to 3-0 Tuesday as he lowered his ERA to 2.77 (he also owns a WHIP of 1.10). Overlooked because of his flashy teammates and lack of elite numbers, some have neglected to note that Fister has been very impressive as a Tiger, and I’m not giving him props cause I have nothing else to do. Through 252 innings with the Tigers Fister is 21-11, has a 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Oh, and that 4.48 K/BB ratio is over the top good. When will he get the respect he deserves Detroit? Isn’t R E S P E C T by Aretha Franklin, one of those that made Detroit into Motown, a song that you should all be singing?

Jedd Gyorko is expected to remain the starter at second even with Chase Headley returning to action. Alex Amarista is lurking if Gyorko continues to struggle, so the question becomes will the rookie continue to struggle or will the Padres eventally turn to Amarista (don’t forget about Logan Forsythe either as he is working his way back from injury)? Jedd has flashed his solid plate discipline, his 0.73 BB/K ratio is proof of that, and he’s still getting on base at a better than league average rate with a .339 OBP even though he’s hitting .240. Still, he’s yet to go deep in 50 at-bats so many are likely disappointed with his effort.

Matt Kemp has never been at a lower place than he is right now. Kemp is hitting .185 with 17 Ks and no homers in 14 games. You know what I say? Buy that guy on the cheap. A breakout is, without question, coming.

Victor Martinez had three hits Tuesday to push his average up to .200. The guy is a .302 career hitter who has hit at least .302 his last three seasons. V-Mart will hit, jujst give him time. Remember, he missed all of last season with that knee injury and it takes some time to get back in the groove. Buy him on the cheap if you can.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Jordan Pacheco hit .309 last year. He has hit .306 for his career. He’s batting .304 this season. It’s only 582 at-bats in total for the guy, but I think it’s safe to say that he is one of the better depth plays in NL-only leagues. If he ever got full-time work…

Fernando Rodney had 48 saves last year with a historic 0.60 ERA. There’s no chance he’s gonna repeat that. I know, way to go out on a limb. So far he’s allowed five hits and walked a batter while getting just eight outs leading to a 10.13 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. It’s far too early to panic, especially after his great WBC, but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Pablo Sandoval is fat. Pablo Sandoval is loveable. Pablo Sandoval can hit. Through 13 games he is batting .320 with 14 RBIs. He’s also struck out only three times on the year.

Mike Trout is a player I’ve written extensively about. You all know my thoughts on him. If we allow that he will maintain his current pace over 150 games he would produce the following 5×5 line: .300-11-54-86-11. Obviously even I think he will do much better than that. However, I think it’s fair to be concerned that he has attempted only one steal in 14 games after running 54 times in 139 games last season.

Barry Zito… told you so. Zito was lit up for nine runs while recording eight outs Tuesday against the Brewers. That horrific outing leaves him with a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, numbers that aren’t that far off his 4.15 and 1.39 marks of last season.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what they offer, and shame on you for not knowing, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Carlos Lee vs. John Lannan: Lee is hitting, get this, .538 over his last seven games with 14 hits in 26 at-bats. You simply cannot be hotter than that. He also faces Lannan Friday night who he has hit .474 against in 19 at-bats. Seems like a match made in heaven.

A.J. Pierzynski vs. Zack Greinke: The old reliable matchup. AJP has hit .408 with two homers in 49 at-bats against the new Angel. While you’ll want to start the backstop you’ll want to avoid his slugging teammate Paul Konerko who has only nine hits in 62 at-bats (.145) against Greinke.

All Yankees vs. Kevin Millwood: I’m only sorta kidding. Look at these numbers though.

Nick Swisher .357 (42 ABs)
Mark Teixeira .379 (injured)
Raul Ibanez .373 (51 ABs)
Ichiro Suzuki .395 (81 ABs)
Robinson Cano .394 (33 ABs)
Andruw Jones .421 (19 ABs)

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Matt Harrison vs. Royals: (1) Harrison has a 12-6 record and 3.19 ERA this year. (2) He’s pitched slightly better on the road (3.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). (3) He’s facing off against Jeremy Guthrie. Seems like a solid start to me even though he’s allowed nine runs in his last two outings.

Tim Hudson vs. Astros: Hudson has long had success against the Astros with a 1.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 4-0 record against the club. He’s also won his last three starts to improve to 10-4, and he’s just not beating himself as he’s walked just nine batters in his last seven starts.

Matt Moore vs. Orioles: Moore has allowed four runs over his last three starts, and the last two times he’s taken the hill he’s struck out 13 batters while walking just two. He’s also gone 5-straight starts without allowing a long ball and he’s pitched a bit better at home this year as well (3.61 ERA, 129 WHIP in 12 starts) than on the road.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Robinson Cano vs. Felix Hernandez: Dan the difficult looking matchup. Cano has hit King Felix to the tune of a .378 average and 1.007 OPS over 37 at-bats as he has gone deep twice.

Aramis Ramirez vs. Adam Wainwright: In 47 at-bats Aramis has clearly gotten the better of the Cards’ righty with 19 hits, including seven doubles and two homers, leading to a .404 average and 1.142 OPS. Overall Aramis also has 10 hits in his last 22 at-bats (.455).

Neil Walker vs. Mike Leake:  Over the last month Walker is hitting .351 with six homers, 18 RBIs and 15 runs scored as the second most valuable fantasy performer at second base (only Brandon Phillips has been better). Walker has also killed it vs. Leake hitting .368 with a homer and eight RBIs in 19 at-bats.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Wei-Yin Chen vs. Rays: Chen made five starts in July and four of them were “quality” as he racked up 41 Ks, with a 3.15 K/BB ratio and 3.44 ERA, over 36.2 innings. He faces a Rays club that has produced just eight hits off him in two starts (.200/.319/.300 slash line against him).

Doug Fister vs. the Indians: Fister had a nice month of July that included a 3.60 ERA and 37 Ks in 40 innings on the bump. He also won four games for the Tigers and has allowed a total of six runs in his last four starts while picking up an impressive total of 31 Ks.

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Mariners: You’re pretty safe pitching anyone against the Mariners, but when it’s Kuroda, it makes even more sense. Not only has he held current Mariner’s batters to a .231 average an a .645 OPS, he’s also rolling having allowed just three runs over his last three starts and he’s also gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts.

CONTESTS

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If you’re a seasoned veteran, how about trying your hand at the $12,000 Prize “King’s Crown” MLB Tournament?

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link.

By Ray Flowers 

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano/Nick Swisher/Mark Teixeira: All three of these Yankees face King Felix, and in most cases that is a recipe for a benching. However, the three Yankees bats have had ample success against the Mariners’ ace.

Cano: .355/.429/581 with two HRs, 4 RBI in 31 at-bats
Swisher: .238/.333/.548 with 4 HRs, 5 RBI in 42 at-bats
Tex: .321/.393/.679 with five HRs, 9 RBIs in 53 at-bats

Sometimes things don’t make a lot of sense.

Casey Kotchman: Clay Buchholz has allowed only 10 hits to all the players currently on the Indians, it just so happens that six of them have been to Kotchman in 11 at-bats, and that’s good for a .545 average. Kotchman is also eight for 23 of late good for a .348 average the past eight days.

Adrian Beltre: The Rangers’ slugger is back to playing third base after dealing with a lower body injury for a while now, and he’s likely looking forward to facing C.J. Wilson given that he has seven hits in 19 at-bats against the lefty (.368/.429/.684).

Jeff Baker/Geo Soto: The two Cubs batters face the always moderately effective Randy Wolf (if you’re looking for a cheap play, Baker is your guy. Look at how many teams over at Fleaflicker have him rostered). The duo has combined to hit four homers with 13 RBI in 54 at-bats against Wolf with Soto hitting three of the bombs with a .333 average while Baker has hit .417 in the matchup.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Chris Capuano is undefeated through six starts with a 2.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 36 Ks in 36.2 innings. He faces a Rockies club that has hit just .235 against him, and Capuano is 5-1 in his career at Dodger Stadium where the game will take place.

Gio Gonzalez faces a Reds club that he has held to a .109 batting average over 14 innings. The Reds hitters have only managed to bat .109 against Gio who has allowed just three runs in his last five outings this season.

I know I wrote earlier about three hitters from the Yankees that have had a lot of success against Felix Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean King Felix is a bad play Saturday. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his outings at the new Yankees Stadium.

Johan Santana has been fantastic this year with a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 34 strikeouts through 31 innings. He faces the Marlins Saturday, a team that he has gone 6-1 against with a 1.46 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 81 punchouts in 68 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Michael Bourn/Jack Wilson: In 25 at-bats against Adam Wainwright Bourn has hit .320 whereas Wilson has hit .364 in 22 at-bats against the righty from St. Louis.

Omar Infante: The guy just keeps on hitting everyone, including going deep with a greater frequency than we’ve ever seen from the slap hitter. Infante has had immense success against the Mets’ R.A. Dickey with 12 hits in 25 at-bats, good for a  .480 batting average.

Andrew McCutchen: Hitting .330 through 28 games, McC has only two bombs on the year, though they have come in the past five days. McCutchen faces J.A. Happ Saturday, a hurler who he has beat around for three homers and five RBI in just 22 at-bats (he has also hit .364 against Happ).

David Wright: This guy has flat out murdered the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco. Wright, in 57 at-bats, has hit .386 with a 1.118 OPS. He’s also gone deep four times with 13 RBI against the perpetually underachieving Nolasco who has actually performed pretty well this year.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

R.A. Dickey faces a Marlins club that continue to struggle to score despite the talent they possess. Dickey shut down the Marlins earlier this season with a one run, seven inning effort that led to a victory. Dickey was bombed in one start this season but in five of his six outings this season he has produced a “quality start.”

Doug Fister faces the Athletics, arguably the worst offense in baseball. Fister also tossed seven shutout innings in his first start back from the DL to up his season long mark to 10.2 shutout innings. Fister has enjoyed plenty of success in his career against the Athletics with a 5-3 record in 10 outings. Fister has also posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over those 60 innings.

Shaun Marcum is 3-0 with a  2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three games against the Cubs. Rather amazingly he also has 17 Ks and just one walk in 20 innings against the Cubbies.

Adam Wainwright is 6-0 with a  2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP against Braves in 44 innings. Wainwright has also gone 2-0 with only five runs allowed in his last three starts this year as he rounds into form as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

CONTESTS

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday May 5th starting at 7pm EST.

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To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on this link.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Doug Fister

For four months in 2011 Doug Fister was who we thought he was. Then, mysteriously, he was dealt to the Tigers and somehow he channeled his inner Greg Maddux. What pitcher should we be expecting in 2012 – the solid innings eater or the historically elite control artist we saw in Motown?

This 6’8”, lanky right-hander (he weighs 210 lbs) was a moderate option on the hill for his two and a half year run with the Mariners. Sure he posted a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his 378 innings, but he also went 12-30, allowed more hits than innings pitched (389) and struck out just 5.2 batters per nine innings (remember, the major league average is about seven per nine). So, how did this league average arm, over 60 games mind you (59 starts), suddenly morph into an elite hurler with the Tigers?

I don’t put much stock in W-L records, you all know that by now, but Fister did go 8-1 in his 11 games with the Tigers. Brushing that aside, what about his performance on the hill? Fister posted a 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP for the Tigers. Uh, yeah, not sustainable, but you already knew that. Even the most optimistic of prognosticators would probably say that a 2.83 ERA and 1.03 WHIP are wildly out of control expectations for Fister, and those numbers are his year long totals from 2011. Hopefully you come to BaseballGuys regularly and I don’t have to say anything more than this – there is no way that Fister remotely approaches those ratios in 2012, it just isn’t going to happen.

So how did Fister have all that success with the Tigers?

First off, the competition wasn’t exactly elite. In his 11 appearances with the Tigers he faced the Orioles once, the Rays once, the Athletics once and the Indians four times. Those teams weren’t exactly offensive powerhouses.

Second, Fister didn’t allow many long balls dropping his already impressive career HR/9 rate of 0.7 down to 0.5. Fister generates a good deal of ground balls, 46.5 percent for his career, but he’s also been aided in keeping the ball in the yard by favorable home pitching environments (don’t forget that the porous infield defense the team figures to run out there this season could also hurt Fister). Last season Comerica Park was completely neutral in terms of the long ball with a Park Indices mark of 100 (the number 100 signifies that the park was exactly neutral not favoring either the hitter or the pitcher) which doesn’t explain why he was so fortunate in the HR/9 column. A regression is coming perhaps?

Third, Fister pushed his poor 5.5 K/9 mark with the Mariners, which was an exact match for his career rate, up to 7.3 with the Tigers. It’s pretty darn rare that any hurler is able to add two batters to his K/9 mark, especially when we have nearly 400 innings at the lower rate. I’m not saying that Fister won’t be able to hold on to  some of that in 2012, but the smart money would certainly be on that mark dipping back down into the six’s if not the five’s.

Fourth, and this is the most remarkable part of his 2011 work, he simply didn’t walk anyone with the Tigers. A career 1.9 BB/9 arm with the Mariners – an excellent mark given that the big league average is about 3.1 – Fister dropped that mark to 0.6 per nine as he walked a total of five batters in 70.1 innings. Remember when I mentioned Greg Maddux earlier? Widely regarded as one of the best pitchers of all-time (mostly for his pinpoint control), Maddux had a 1.8 BB/9 mark for his career an only once did he ever post a BB/9 mark under 1.0 (it was 0.8 in 1997). Simply put, Fister has as much chance of repeating that number over a full season as I do of convincing you all that I know exactly how many base hits that Brandon Inge will rack up this year.

Fifth, I’m all about K/BB ratios and how important they are (see my recent work on SWIP), but come on now. Fister’s 11.40 mark was, get this, four times greater than his career mark of 2.76. Speaking of SWIP, even with all of Fister’s success at keeping the free passes completely removed from his game, his SWIP mark of 0.50 was barely better than the league average of 0.45.

The bottom line with Fister is this. He was out of his mind locked in the final two months of 2011. He has no chance to produce at that level over 30 starts in 2012. None. Could he match his season long totals from last season? It’s certainly possible. Still, a 6.07 K/9 mark is nothing to get excited about in the fantasy game (his 2011 season long total). Second, his xFIP says he was a 3.61 ERA arm last season, not the 2.83 mark his raw ERA suggested. Third, his BABIP was down .030 points from 2010 despite the fact that he gave up more line drives than at any point in his three year career (the 20.4 line drive was a bit above the big league average of 19-20 percent while his BABIP was below the big league average of about .300). Those two factors don’t point to him holding batters to a .237 batting average yet again (don’t forget that Fister could also be handicapped by what figures to be a less than average group of defenders in the infield).

Fister is a solid reserve round add but he unlikely to match the overall totals he posted last season with no chance at all of continuing the elite level production he offered as a Tiger in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 6, 2011

The season might be wrapping up, but there are still fantasy championships to be won. At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account people continually send in questions in search of answers. Hopefully my answers are helpful.

I’m so sick of Tim Stauffer. If I hadn’t reached my season acquisition limit I would never have him pitching.
– @iamfantasyking

Perception is a witch (you know what word really should be there).

I’ll grant you that two of the last five times that Stauffer has taken the hill he has gotten lit up (16 ER in a mere 4.2 innings), and that would kill anyone’s fantasy squad. Hell, the guys seen his ERA go up a full run over his last 10 outings. Who wouldn’t be ticked off? Still, I’m gonna say it’s been a successful season, and so should you.

Stauffer had never made more than 14 starts in a season his big league career and he’s up to 29 this season. That’s led to 173.2 innings, more than double his previous career best of 82.2 innings. Give him a check mark here.

For his career he owns a 3.97 ERA. This season his ERA, despite his recent downturn is 3.83. Give him a check mark here.

For his career he has a 1.32 WHIP. This season his WHIP is 1.27. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his K/9 mark is 6.11. This season his K/9 mark is 6.06. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his BB/9 mark is 3.08. This season his BB/9 mark is 2.64. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his HR/9 mark is 0.98. This season his HR/9 mark is 1.04. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his GB/FB ratio is 1.49. This season his GB/FB mark is 1.83. Give him a check mark here.

The point should be obvious. Stauffer has been the same pitcher he has always been, just over twice as many innings as normal. In my mind, that means he has had a successful season (especially when you consider things like the fact that he has a better ERA than Chris Carpenter and Zack Greinke while posting a better WHIP than Matt Garza and Wandy Rodriguez). The timing of his recent struggles is horrible for those fighting for a fantasy championship, but in totality Stauffer has pitched pretty darn well this season.

Is Steve Cishek worth it for saves while not blowing up WHIP/ERA or is Jonny Venters a better options for cheap wins?
– @Chaka606

The Marlins’ closer, Leo Nunez, has decided to suck wind for the second straight season in the second half. Nunez has seen his 3.51 first half ERA jump to 6.38 (he’s allowed 11 ER in his last 10.2 innings), and his BAA go from .221 to .307 since the All-Star break. Oddly, he’s only walked three batters in 20 outings, but he’s been bit by the long ball allowing four homers. As a result he has three saves in his last 11 outings while he has also blown three chances. His last save was August 16th. Cishek has picked up two saves in his last four outings as he gains a foothold in the 9th, and on the year he has a 1.24 WHIP and 47 Ks in 45.1 innings. However, he too has hit a bit of speed bump of late allowing six hits, three walks and four runs in his last 4.1 innings.

Venters continues to be an astronomically effective setup man who picks up the odd save (five on the year). He’s also vultured six victories against one loss. However, it’s his ratios that really stand out. On the year, and we’re talking 77.2 innings, Venters has a 1.39 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .160 BAA and 87 punchouts. That level of production just isn’t seen by anyone other than the elites in the game. To be quiet honest, his performance this year is superior to all but a handful of closers in the game – if that. He’s been flat out amazing.

All of that analysis misses the point. Wins are hard enough to predict for starting pitchers, in fact I would argue that no one can effectively predict them. As for wins from a reliever, you’re better off trying to guess how many times a day that everyone in the world sneezes. There is certainly no way to predict wins from a reliever, and you certainly shouldn’t add one trying to add to the win column for your team.

Secondly, the worry about blowing up your WHIP or ERA at this point of a season, if we are talking about relievers, is negligible at best. Let’s say your team has thrown 1,200 innings and it has allowed 450 runs leading to an ERA of 3.38. We can agree that the last month of work from Nunez is about as bad as it gets, right? So let’s add in 11 runs and 10.2 innings to the mix to give us 1,210 innings and 461 runs allowed. The result is a 3.43 ERA. I’m not saying that isn’t enough of a downturn to lose you a spot or two in your standings, but how often do relievers allow a run an inning over 10 innings? Not often is the correct answer, and with less than a month left in the regular season, it will be tough for most relievers to toss more than 10 innings the rest of the way.

The bottom line is that you needn’t worry too much about any reliever crashing your ratios at this point of the season.

Jeff Niemann or Doug Fister going forward?
– @MoonSetGallery

In 19 starts for the Rays this year Jeff Neimann has posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He’s also picked up a victory in five of his last seven outings. However, he’s started to allow a lot of homers, seven in his last seven outings, while his ERA is up to 4.01 in that stretch. That’s still a passable number of course, and his 3.03 K/BB ratio for the year says it isn’t all smoke and mirrors as he’s posting three year bests in K/9 (7.00) and BB/9 (2.31). His GB/FB ratio is also a career best at 1.27. All of that says that his current level of production could be sustainable.

Fister has been a solid pitcher in his big league career with a 3.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but the prevailing wisdom was that his production would take a slight dip outside of Safeco which so heavily favors the pitcher. That assumption has been wrong as Fister has taken off since he joined the Tigers. One of the biggest reasons is that his run support, which was under two runs with the Mariners, is approaching 4.7 in his seven starts with the Tigers. It’s also helped that in his seven outings he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once leading to a 4-1 record, 2.64 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s actually pitching like a new man with his new team (how appropriate). In addition to all of that just mentioned goodness, Fister has walked three batters in 44.1 innings. Three. That’s led to a BB/9 mark of 0.61. That mark was 1.97 in Seattle. He’s also struck out more batters with a 7.31 per nine mark compared to his 5.49 mark with the Mariners.

We may only be talking about a month plus of work, but Fister is performing at a near elite level since he joined the Tigers so ride that wave until his season hits the beach.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Deadline Deals

The trade deadline came and went. Some big names were dealt while others need not change their address labels for their mail. A few thoughts on some of the bigger names that were dealt are below.

Mike Adams, Rangers: I keep saying it – there isn’t a better right-handed reliever in baseball (1.12 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.44 K.BB).

Erik Bedard, Red Sox: As injury prone as any player in the game, Bedard is nearly always successful when on the hill. Just 4-7 his record figures to do a 180 with the Red Sox offense behind him. He had better pitch well though, and stay healthy, as Clay Buchholz (back) is likely done for the year.

Carlos Beltran, Giants: He has only two hits in 17 at-bats with the Giants but he figures to settle right in and be the best run producer on the club.

Michael Bourn, Braves: You know you suck, and yes I’m talking to you Astros, when you deal the best base stealer in the league (39 thefts), a guy who is hitting .303 and one who is also under contract for 2012 (arbitration eligible). His value goes up with a better lineup around him.

Doug Fister, Tigers: This guys a solid big leaguer. He has a strong 1.17 WHIP, while his ERA is also good at 3.33. You can’t blame him for his 3-12 record since the Mariners offense is just pathetic, but Fister offers little to excite in the fantasy game. He goes out and give you six innings, he’s actually done it 14-straight starts though only nine of those outings fall into the “quality start” category. His value goes up slightly with the deal since he might actually pick up a few wins.

Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: How in the world is Furcal hitting .196? Pathetic. He has hit better since the All-Star break at .217, but that’s like saying your traded in your Yugo for a Festiva. He’s still got talent and if he hits at the top of the order he has a bushel of bats behind him to knock him in.

Edwin Jackson, Cardinals: I gave my thoughts on Jackson last week in Deals a Startin. I’ll add this. I was in St. Louis when Jackson made his first start, and listening to the media and fans you’d have thought they added Bob Gibson to the staff. Jackson has a good arm, and when locked in he can be a solid option, but it seems like expectations are way out of whack with this guy.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: From June 1-July 19th he allowed three of fewer runs in 10-straight starts. Unfortunately he’s allowed nine runs over his last two outings. His velocity is still down three mph, and moving to the AL isn’t going to help his outlook.

Derrek Lee, Pirates: Lee will replace Lyle Overbay at first, and he has been hot of late hitting .298 with a .906 OPS and 13 RBI over his last 15 games.

Ryan Ludwick, Pirates: Leaving Petco should be a big boost to his offense, but it’s not like he has been killing it all year on the road (.258/.300/.389).

Hunter Pence, Phillies: He’s having a fine year but his OBP isn’t great at .355, his SLG of .468 is only 39th amongst players with 400 plate appearances, and his BABIP is high at .365. Still, can’t fault the Phillies at all with this add though it does tank the value of Domonic Brown who was sent to Triple-A.

Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: I gave my thoughts on Colby last week in Deals a Startin. Let’s say that I like the game, question the head, and wonder if he will ever reach the level that his talent dictates he should. Still, he just might get there in Canada where no one even knows they play baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Waiver-Wire Adds

photo © 2008 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

You’re in a 12 team league that starts 14 hitters and nine pitchers with five or six guys on your bench. If you are in a setup such as this the following guys might be available for you to add. The question is – should you?

Mike Adams: The best pitcher in baseball? Through 14 innings he hasn’t walked a better and has allowed three hits. That’s a 0.21 WHIP folks. Toss in a 0.64 ERA and the guy been utterly amazing. He’s worth a look in a 12 teamer while pitching like this just don’t expect too many saves since Heath Bell is currently working on the 6th longest consecutive save streak in big league history (40).

Alberto Callaspo: He might be hitting .301, but he’s really nothing more than a replacement level player. Callaspo has never hit more than 11 homers in a season, and he has all of 10 steals in his career. His average won’t hurt you, it sits at .280 for his career, and it is impressive that he’s currently sporting a substantial increase in his walk rate which has led to a .381 OBP, some .051 points clear of his career rate. Unfortunately he likely only qualifies at third base, but with all the injuries at that position he might be worth a short-term add.

Doug Fister: This hurler owns a solid 1.28 WHIP during his young career, and his ERA also sits below four at 3.92. Unfortunately his K/9 rate is just 5.19, so there is little in the way of upside here. Fister’s xFIP last year – a measure designed to show what a pitchers true ERA should be (including normalization for ballpark) – says that his mark last year was 4.10, that it is 4.16 this year and 4.18 for his career. Given that his ERA’s his first two years were 4.13 and 4.11, do you really think he has a good shot to keep his ERA below three this year (it’s currently 2.70)?

Kosuke Fukudome: He lit up April hitting .383/.486/.400. So the initial thought is that he must finally have figured it out. Probably not. He’s still being platooned sitting against lefties (only six at-bats against southpaws this year), and if you look at his career April is always his best month of the season. Moreover, its the only month he has hit better than .280 (.338), his only one with an OBP over .382 (it’s .448) an a SLG over .455 (it’s .507). History says you should expect things to go south pretty soon.

Todd Helton: The Rockies’ first sacker is a legitimate option at the corner infield spot, especially with guys like Daric Barton and James Loney struggling. Helton isn’t likely to reach his totals from 2009 (.325-15-86-79) but it’s doubtful he’ll be as bad as he was last year either (.256-8-37-48). As long as his back doesn’t betray him his bat can play as a depth option.

Phil Humber: His spot in the rotation isn’t secure with Jake Peavy nearing a return, but Humber has performed admirably. However, he doesn’t strike anyone out (5.85 per nine), and there is little chance that he will be  able to continue to keep his HR/9 so low (it’s 0.56) and there is no chance he’ll keep his hit rate down at .212 (that’s some .065 points below his career rate).

Conor Jackson: A first round draft pick with beautiful stroke, Jackson was a solid performer from 2006-08 as a guy who was hitting .290 with 15 homers and 70 RBI. He then picked up West Valley Nile River Mekong Delta Virus or whatever it’s called. It ruined his 2009 and 2010 seasons. Playing time is an issue this season, the A’s have seemingly 47 hitters on their roster, but Conor is looking just like his old self hitting .298 with a .375 OBP and his normally stellar BB/K ratio (1.00). He’s worth an add if he continues to play every day.

Jason Marquis: He’s 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA. Come on, seriously though? Marquis will take the ball every five games, throw a lot of innings, and produce double-digit wins. He does it every year he is healthy. He also owns a career ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.42 over more than 1,500 big league innings. He’s totally on his game right now and might be worth a spot start or two in the short-term, but you can’t count on him to be anything more than your last starter – and even that may not be a deal you’ll want to make in a mixed league.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May3, 2010

(1) Alex Gordon to work on versatility in minors.

(2) Brad Lidge not ready to close – who will for Phillies?

(3) Jimmy Rollins likely to miss at least two more weeks.

(4) Joe Mauer to DL with heel injury?

(5) Javier Vazquez to have start skipped.

(6) Brian Wilson back to health in San Francisco.

(7) Should you still sell-high on Garland and Fister? Here’s a quick shorthand note – yes.

By Ray Flowers