2012 BaseballGuys.com Mid-Season Rankings

Back in late January the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide was offered to facilitate your quest to dominate the fantasy competition. A lot has changed since then though, an awful lot.

Carlos Santana has been a massive disappointment behind the dish.

Albert Pujols struggled mightily out of the gate.

Evan Longoria had multiple setbacks with a lower body injury.

Dustin Pedroia has been largely ineffective due to injury.

Troy Tulowitzki is on the shelf yet again.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp suffered significant injuries.

Roy Halladay was hurt.

Two-thirds of the bullpens in baseball have switched closers.

Obviously, a lot has changed since the 2012 season began.

Given those facts, I thought now would be a great time update my Player Rankings. Here’s what I’ve done.

I’ve ranked the top-40 players at the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.
I’ve ranked the top-100 outfielders.
I’ve ranked the top-150 starting pitchers.
I’ve ranked the top-75 relievers.

That’s 525 players ranked for the second half of the 2012 baseball season.

How do you get your copy of the5x5, mixed league rankings?

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $1.00 through Paypal, and The Mid-Season Rankings will be on their way to you within hours.

$1 folks – that’s it. That’s like going to iTunes and downloading a song.

It’s just that simple.

Donate to the BaseballGuys.com cause and I’ll send you an email with the PDF file containing the rankings.

There’s still time to win your fantasy baseball league this season, so let BaseballGuys.com help to guide you to that championship.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June5, 2012

(1) King Felix to have his start Wednesday skipped because of a wonky back.

(2) Johan Santana start pushed back two days. Chris Young to start for Mets Tuesday.

(3) Dustin Pedrioa (thumb) will avoid the DL.

(4) Jemile Weeks doing nothing at the dish – nothing.

(5) Alex Presley recalled by Pirates.

(6) Willin Rosario thinks he’s Adam Dunn.

(7) Mike Trout has been utterly dynamic.

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Batting

Yesterday I tackled the 2011 performance of pitchers, an if you know me you know that I’m all about symmetry. Today, I’ll break down some of the numbers that stood out for me when I looked at the hitters for 2011. Special thanks to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool).

For my review of some of the fascinating pitching numbers see A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching.

Asdrubal Cabrera hit .636 with 13 RBI last year in 11 at-bats with the bases loaded.

Miguel Cabrera led baseball with a 1.047 OPS against right handed pitching. That mark was .001 better than two other first basemen – Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder.

If you were an NL pitcher in 2011 and you were looking to get strike one under your belt then you wanted to see Jamey Carroll come to the dish. Carroll swung at only 6.9 percent of first pitches. The only other NL batter in single digits was Martin Prado (9.8). As for those that did let her rip on the first pitch three names topped 40 percent: Yadier Molina (40.7), Aramis Ramirez (40.6) and Freddie Freeman (40.1).

If you were a curveball specialist you didn’t want to see the Diamondbacks on your schedule as Chris Young and Justin Upton were 1-2 in the NL in OPS against the curveball (1.149 and 1.148). If you relied on the slider, you certainly didn’t want to see the Reds or the Phillies in the other dugout as the Phillies had three guys in the top-5 in the NL in OPS (Shane Victorino 1.111, John Mayberry 1.060 and Jimmy Rollins 1.060) while the Reds had three in the top nine (Ryan Hanigan 1.036, Jay Bruce 1.036 and Chris Heisey 1.014).

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League, and baseball, with 364 total bases. Teammate Adrian Gonzalez was second in the AL with 345 while Matt Kemp led the NL at 353.

Prince Fielder hit the longest home run in the NL at 486 feet. That’s hardly a surprise. However, the only other NL player with a homer over 480 feet was Juan Francisco of the Reds who hit on 482 feet on September 12th. No AL batter put one into the seats at a distance of at least 480 feet.

Derek Jeter failed to hit .300 as he finished at .297 for the Yankees. Blame his work against righties (.277) as he killed lefties to the tune of a .347 mark. For his career he’s hit .336 against lefties and .305 against the righties.

Matt Kemp loved seeing a lefty on the hill in 2011. His OPS of 1.142 was the best in the National League against southpaws. That mark was just behind the 1.156 OPS  of Jose Bautista against port siders, the AL leading total.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .394 batting average with runners in scoring position. He also posted a .990 OPS in those 155 at-bats. He didn’t slump much either when the situation was a runner in scoring position with two outs. In that scenario he hit .375 with a .930 OPS (72 at-bats).

Dustin Pedroia saw 3,077 pitches, the most in baseball. Only one other batter was over 2,900 and that was Curtis Granderson at 3,069.

There was only one leadoff hitter in baseball, who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances in that spot, who posted an on base percentage of .400. It was Brandon Phillips of the Reds at .417. Surprisingly the AL leader wasn’t Jacoby Ellsbury who was second at .381. The fella in the Junior Circuit with the best mark was the Royals… Alex Gordon at .383.

There wasn’t a single batter in the NL who was under the age of 26 that posted an OPS of .900. The leader was Justin Upton at .898 followed closely by Mike Stanton (.893) and Carlos Gonzalez (.889).

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Second Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

2011 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Brandon Phillips
4 Dan Uggla
5 Chase Utley
6 Ian Kinsler
7 Rickie Weeks
8 Howie Kendrick
9 Aaron Hill
10 Martin Prado

Cano hit .302, third at the position, had 28 homers, third at the position, knocked in 118 runs, first at the position, and scored 104 runs, second at the position. Yeah, he lived up to the preseason hype.

Pedroia was phenomenal for the Red Sox hitting .307 with 21 homers, 91 RBI, 102 runs and 26 stolen bases. That effort was just the sixth, ever, for a second baseman (minimum .300-20-90-100-25).

Phillips hit .300 for the first time, scored 94 runs, blasted 18 homers and knocked in 82 runs. It was a great season even if he stole just 14 bases, his lowest total since joining the Reds in 2006.

Uggla was horrible, then electric in his first season with the Braves. Add it all up and he hit a career worst .233. However, he also scored 88 runs, hit a career best 36 homers, and knocked in 82 runs. That gave him 6-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 82 RBI and 84 runs scored. Only one other second baseman in history has ever had six such seasons (Jeff Kent), and Uggla has done it 6-years in a row – every year he has been in the league (no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years).

Utley had a decent season for a late round draft pick asked to full the middle infield spot (.259-11-44-54-14), but that knee injury just killed his season, and he’s now had back-to-back seasons that are nowhere near his established level of excellence (in 2010 he went .275-16-65-75-13).

Kinsler rebounded from a down 2010 to post his second 30/30 effort in three years. He hit only .255, but he powered a career-high 32 homers and scored 121 runs, another career best.

Weeks, against my better judgment really, came in seventh at the position at the start of the year. As I pointed out numerous times, Weeks had three season of less than 100 games, and three over 100 games coming into the year. He kind of split the difference appearing in 118 games, but the lack of times on the field limited his contributions to being a really good season, but not a great one (.269-20-49-77-9).

Kendrick saved me from a lot of flack. I ranked him pretty high this spring, and everyone called me out for it. In the end, he produced one of the better 5×5 lines at the position going .285-18-63-86-14. Do you know how many second base eligible players hit .285 with 18 homers, 63 RBI, 86 runs and 14 steals? The answer is three – Pedroia, Phillips and Kendrick.

Hill was a massive disappointment yet again, and I’m really at a loss as to why. He hit .246 with eight homers, 61 RBI, and 61 runs scored. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 31 homers a season in 2009-10. He somewhat saved his season by swiping 21 bases, nearly halfway to his career mark of 44 thefts.

Prado was a disaster in 2011. He hit 13 homers with 57 RBI which was about as expected, but he scored only 66 runs and even worse, after hitting .307 in back-to-back seasons, batted just .260. You can, at least in part, blame his BABIP which was .266, well below his career rate of .315 (his line drive rate was also a career worst at 14.6 percent, this after posting at least a 19.8 percent mark from 2008-2010).

Hit: Howie Kendrick #8
Bust: Hill #9

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August18, 2011

(1) Derek Jeter hitting .344 of late.

(2) Jeff Francoeur signs 2-year deal with Royals.

(3) Ervin Santana – dynamic last six starts.

(4) Frank Francisco the Blue Jays closer.

(5) Mike Napoli crushing it, on .290-40-100 pace.

(6) Players with homer droughts – Howie Kendrick, Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez who is struggling.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Diamond

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

One guy is trying to make history while a former all-star is just trying to stay in the lineup. Another all-star could be headed to the DL, someone can’t figure out how to manage his weight properly and there are some white hot players the last two weeks that deserve a mention.

Asdrubal Cabrera has been the second most valuable shortstop in the game behind only Jose Reyes. Cabrera is on pace to hit .302 with 32 homers, 113 RBI, 108 runs and 18 steals. There is only one shortstop in the history of the game to produce a season as good as that in all five categories, and that is Alex Rodriguez who did it twice. Obviously history doesn’t bode well for Cabrera being able to keep up this pace, nor does a review of his previous levels of production. Consider his homer and RBI totals each year of his career (all levels for each season).

2006: 4 homers, 36 RBI
2007: 11-79
2008: 10-60
2009: 6-68
2010: 4-32

I don’t have any idea how you go from that to 30-100, do you?

I saw X-Men First Class last night. A really good flick, even for those of you who don’t have an affinity for superhero movies. I also learned that January Jones ain’t a bad looking lady at all. Where have I been on that one?

In one of the more vexing cases this season, Jason Bay is hitting .207 with two homers over 164 plate appearances thanks to a recent run of 23 hitless at-bats. Bay has hit at least 21 homers with 84 RBI and 78 runs scored in each of his five big league seasons of at least 145 games played. Moreover, in four of those seasons he hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI and 100 runs scored. At just 32 years old his struggles this year are befuddling to say the least. The guy has been flat out awful since joining the Mets hitting .244 with eight homers, 57 RBI and 68 runs scored in 134 games with the club.

Dustin Pedroia might need surgery on his right knee that could reportedly keep him out for four or more weeks. A career .299 hitter, Pedroia is struggling along at .247 and has looked little like the player we expect at the dish. Oddly though, he’s on pace for a career best steal total, he already has 13 (career best 20), despite the knee issue and the surgery he had on his foot last year.

Did you see the ridiculous story that Francisco Rodriguez lost 15 lbs over the last week after having two teeth removed? Even crazier than that is the ludicrous notion espoused by K-Rod that he was unaware that he lost the weight. Those two points lead me to two points. (1) Don’t they have milkshakes in New York? It’s completely asinine to suggest that K-Rod couldn’t keep his weight on cause he had teeth removed. You don’t have to eat steak to keep your weight up, especially when you have access to the elite in the medical profession to help to guide you in how  to keep the weight on. (2) How fat is K-Rod if he didn’t notice that he lost 15 lbs? If I gain or lose five pounds my clothes don’t fit.

Only two lefties are in the top-25 in terms of batting average against versus right-handed batters since the start of 2009. They both pitch in the NL. They both are in the NL West. They are Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Sanchez. For those of you with a curious bent, Kershaw is 9th on the list while the Giants lefty is one spot ahead of him in 8th.

The last two weeks…

Michael Bourn has eight steals.

Nelson Cruz has blasted six dingers leading to 13 RBI and 11 runs.

Kelly Johnson has six homers, 11 RBI and 13 runs scored.

Andrew McCutchen is hitting .417 with 10 RBI, 12 runs and four steals.

Mitch Moreland is hitting .405 with three homers.

Daniel Murphy is hitting .467.

Miguel Olivo has 15 RBI, one more than the 14 of Carl Crawford.

David Ortiz is hitting .405 with five homers, 11 RBI and 12 runs.

Corey Patterson is hitting .356 with three homers/steals and 13 runs scored.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 26, 2010

(1) Dustin Pedroia (knee) likely done for year.

(2) Ricky Nolasco to pitch through torn meniscus in knee.

(3) Jordan Zimmerman is back. Will Stephen Strasburg return?

(4) Manny Ramirez on waivers – Rangers, Rays, White Sox interested.

(5) Brad Hawpe drawing interest from Red Sox, Rays and Rangers.

(6) Jason Bay (concussion) – no updates.

(7) Jonathan Broxton still in setup role.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 19, 2010

(1) David Wright back in the lineup for Mets.

(2) Ian Kinsler to get MRI on Monday.

(3) Dustin Pedroia out with sore foot.

(4) Lance Berkman to DL. Alex Rodriguez should be back soon for Yankees.

(5) Brad Hawpe released.

(6) Pedro Feliz to Cardinals.

(7) Ryan Howard (ankle) hopes to return on Monday.

(8) Roger Clemens likely to be indicted for lying to Congress.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 17, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury yet another fractured rib.

(2) Second basemen return – Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Martin Prado.

(3) Is Justin Morneau done for the year?

(4) Mets place Francisco Rodriguez placed on disqualified list.

(5) Matt Lindstrom out, Brandon Lyon in as closer.

(6) Bryce Harper signs with Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Second Base

In my continuing trip down memory lane I’ll review the second base position to see how my prediction for the top-10 at the position panned out (the following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season).

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

1. Ian Kinsler

2. Brian Roberts

3. Chase Utley

4. Brandon Phillips

5. Dustin Pedroia

6. Dan Uggla

7. Robinson Cano

8. Mark DeRosa

9. Kelly Johnson

10. Rickie Weeks

Kinsler was injured yet again and hit a career worst .253 making this call a bust right? Well, not really. Kinsler went 30/30 with 31 homers and 31 steals, as he also knocked in 86 runners while crossing home plate 101 times. Nothing wrong that that effort at all.

Roberts is historically good, and I’ve written it before. He has produced at least 100 runs, 30 steals and 40 doubles in 3-straight years. It may not sound like much, but it is an all-time major league record for second sackers.

Utley would have been the #2 guy on the list if it wasn’t for concerns about his surgically repaired hip (remember this was back in January when we thought Utley could miss April, and yes, I would have still had Kinsler higher than Utley last season even if dude was healthy). All Utley did was go 20/20 for the first time while hitting 31 bombs with 93 RBI and 112 runs.

You are pretty darn good when you’re an afterthought after the top group despite going 20/20 in each of the past three years. If you have to “settle” for Phillips consider yourself in good hands.

Dustin Pedroia didn’t repeat his MVP effort of 2008 (.326-17-83-118-20), but that was never going to happen anyway – though he got awfully close. He settled in and had a fine season one that was well worth a top-5 selection at the position (.296-15-72-115-20).

Uggla is a beast at the dish, a fact I recounted in Player Movement Thoughts.

Cano was, simply put, amazing. He hit a career best 25 homers, knocked in his second best total of 85 runners, scored a career-high 103 runs all the while batting .320 with 48 doubles. Time to include this man in the discussion of outright stars at the position.

DeRosa was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals, and dealt with a left wrist injury that eventually required surgery when the season was over. He wasn’t great, but it’s not like a .250-23-78-78 line is weak if you play second place.

Johnson completely tanked – completely. After 2-straight years of at least .276-12-68-86-9, Johnson struggled all year hitting just .224 with eight homers and 29 RBI in just 303 ABs. Eventually the Braves turned to Martin Prado who hit .307 and now appears the favorite to start at second for the club in 2010.

I was higher on Weeks than anyone on staff. Though mid-May, I was looking like a genius. Unfortunately, Weeks was once again struck by another wrist injury, and as a result he appeared in a mere 37 games. Still, if we quadruple his effort we would end up with a .272-36-96-112-8 line which would have made me look like a genius. What could have been.

By Ray Flowers