ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Reds Deal to Add Latos

It’s been a few days since the Reds and Padres swung a huge deal, and with the dust settled I thought it would be a good time to investigate both sides and see if there was a winner and loser,

Padres Receive: Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger

Reds receive: Mat Latos

Reds Haul – The Reds got the most productive player in the deal in Latos. A legitimate rising star, Latos went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 189 Ks as a 22 year old in 2010. Last year the record was reversed, he went 9-14, while his ERA (3.47), and WHIP (1.18) went up. He also struck out four fewer batters in 9.2 more innings, but that’s a wash.

For the past two years Latos has been one of the better right-handed pitchers in the NL. He’s also very young which means he’s a nice addition for a team in Cincinnati that needs cost certainty with their players. As for what to expect from Latos, there are some issues to keep an eye on. With only two seasons of data to rely on I’m admittedly guessing a bit here, but I don’t like to see his K/9 rate and ground ball rate go down while his BB/9 rate and line drive rate went up in his second full season. I also don’t like the fact that he’s leaving one of the best pitchers park’s in baseball for a yard that clearly favors the hitter. This is especially concerning given that his 1.03 GB/FB rate for his career is league average. Since Great America ballpark is the most homer happy park in the NL according to Park Indices, he might have a hard time keep that ERA in the low 3′s.

Padres Haul – Where to begin.

Volquez is a mess. Oh he owns a solid arm he did go 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA  and 206 Ks in 2008, but the last few years he has struggled to throw strikes (the last three years his BB/9 mark has been above 5.00). Until he does a better job of location his pitches, it’s going to be very difficult to count on him as anything more than a 5th starter. Still, he moves to Petco which should rectify his homer woes, and when you factor in that he has posted an impressive 1.75 GB/FB ratio over his last 171.1 innings, you can see there is a chance that he could post some top-shelf pitching totals with half the Padres games at Petco.

Alonso hit .330 with a .943 OPS in 88 at-bats last season and he projects as a solid bat at first base (he’s been tried as on outfielder, but he really doesn’t have the athleticism for it). Alonso has also hit .296 with a .842 OPS in 192 games at Triple-A seemingly proving that his time is now. The addition by the Padres is a bit odd though given that they already have Anthony Rizzo as their first baseman of the future. Maybe they work out a way for the duo to play together – possibly Alonso in that outfield role – but the winds are suggesting that the Pads might deal Rizzo this offseason.

Grandal is a switch hitter who is close to being ready for the bigs (his addition likely ends the future with the Padres for Nick Hundley). Grandal hit .303 with 14 homers, 69 RBI and a .401 OBP as he flew through three minor league levels last season. His time will come, likely in 2013.

Boxberger is the least exciting name in the group, though it’s not like he doesn’t have a big arm. After all, he’s struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings in his 153.2 innings as a big league hurler. He worked as a starter in 2010, but last year he was moved to the bullpen.

Winner – Come on now, it’s not even close. I have no idea what the Reds were doing in this deal. They dealt away Volquez, who already has a season on his record that is equivalent to what Latos has posted the last two years. They dealt away Alonso, a bat that many predict could hit .300 with 20 homers year after year. They dealt away a catching prospect in Grandal who was the 12th overall selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft. We’ve heard the Reds say, ‘but we have Joey Votto at first base and Devin Mesoraco is an even better option at catcher than Grandal,’ but even so, you don’t just give up talent because you have depth. Maybe this deal will result in the Reds winning their division in 2012, but moving forward this has the ring of the type of deal that the Giants made years ago when they sent Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April7, 2011

(1) Lastings Milledge released by the White Sox. Will he ever reach his potential?

(2) Edinson Volquez struggling to find the strike zone – again.

(3) Logan Morrison has a bright future, but what is his value this season?

(4) Michael Bourn tweaks groin. Does that mean he’ll stop running?

(5) Yunel Escobar has head injury. Hopefully it’s minor after his hot start.

(6) Vlad Guerrero – he can still hit despite his slow start.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 9, 2011

Photo by Gary McCabe

I am in 5×5 roto league and have a stacked offense, but my steals are so-so. I’m considering offering Brandon Phillips and Matt Holiday for Ian Kinsler and B.J. Upton. Am I giving up too much in reliable players for a couple with questions?
– Tom, Cypress, Texas

This question brings up an obvious point some people forget at times – nothing is done in a vacuum. Sometimes trading “better” players to get “inferior” ones might be more beneficial to your spot in the standings. Remember, it doesn’t matter if you win the homer category by three or 33, you still get the same amount of points in a rotisserie league. Dealing from an overwhelming strength to shore up a weakness often makes a lot of sense.

Straight up I’d prefer Holliday over Upton – by a lot.
Straight up I’d prefer Kinsler over Phillips – but it’s pretty darn close.

In this scenario however…

Last year Phillips (16) and Holliday (nine) had 25 steals.
Last year Kinsler (15) and Upton (42) had 57 steals.

Per 162 games in their careers…

Phillips (23) and Holliday (14) average 37 steals.
Kinsler (28) and Upton (40) average 68 steals.

Clearly, if the goal is to improve your steal total, this is a move you have to make.

There is obvious risk however. Holliday will hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI while Upton could hit .230-15-60. I personally think Upton has a legit shot to be a dominating force this season, he’s a 20/40 threat in my mind, but their reliability grades couldn’t be more different. I’d also make the argument that the upside with Kinsler is immense, we saw what he could do in 2009 when he went 30/30, but he’s also played more than 130 games just once in five seasons. As for Phillips the ceiling may not be as high as it is with Kinsler, but he has averaged a mighty impressive 21 homers and 24 steals the past five seasons.

Given your situation, and your stated need for speed, I can support this deal as long as you have enough batting average strength to take on the potential downside that Kinsler and Upton could bring.

What do you think of the outlook for Edinson Volquez this year? I have him as a $3 keeper in my $100 salary cap auction league. I have an owner with Cole Hamels ($9) that is interested in Volquez. Would you recommend trading Volquez for Hamels?
– Tom, Baltimore, Maryland

Edison Volquez was a star in 2008 with a 17-6 record, a 3.21 ERA and a mouth watering 206 Ks in 196 innings. He struggled in 2009 before being shut down due to an elbow issue that led to Tommy John surgery, and last season he wasn’t much better in his return to the bigs. In fact, over his last 21 starts the only thing that stands out is his still impressive K-rate: 8-5, 4.33 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.13 K/9. He’s also really struggled to throw strikes with a walk rate of 5.37 per nine the past two years. No matter how dominating your stuff is you simply cannot succeed long term when you issue that many free passes. Some of that lack of control can be blamed on the injury and working his way back into shape, but even when Edinson dominated in ’08 he still had a BB/9 rate of 4.27, a full batter above the big league average.

Hamels, for some reason, gets about as much love as Paris Hilton at the Academy Awards. Last year Hamels was 12th in the NL in ERA (3.06), had the same WHIP (1.18) as Clayton Kershaw, Johan Santana and Chris Carpenter, and had a career best 211 Ks, 6th in the league. Flat out, this guy is an ace, even if he doesn’t always get the love that he should in fantasy leagues. He is a safer and vastly superior option when compared to the Reds’ Volquez.

But what of the cost? Converting the dollars to the standard $260 scale, Volquez would be $8 and Hamels $23. Obviously Volquez is a tempting hold given that his cost is 1/3 of Hamels. Would I pay $23 for Hamels in a keeper league? I would. Would I pay $8 for Volquez in a keeper league? I actually answered yes before I finished typing the previous sentence. Without knowing how long players can be kept, if there are any salary increases in successive years, how much money you have invested in your other players, and without knowing who else is on your staff, I’d keep Hamels. If everything breaks right for Volquez we’ve seen that he can be an elite level producer, but Hamels is already there. I know the cost is significant, but in this case I’d go with the higher priced ace from the Phillies and sleep more comfortably at night.

I’m a football convert trying to get into fantasy baseball this season. My question is about draft strategy. Which positions should I target early – like a RB in football – and which should I leave until the end – like a kicker?
– Wilson, Nashville, Tennessee

I get a version of this question every once in a while, and I’m afraid my answer always disappoints – there is no single way to do a baseball draft. There are general rules, and I’ll get to them in a second, but there is nothing like there is in football where you can basically say go running back and wide receiver in the first two rounds and defense and kicker in the last two. There are many reasons for this.

First, there are more positions to fill in fantasy baseball. There are six main starting positions in football (QB, RB, WR, TE, DEF and K) while there are eight in baseball (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, SP and RP). Seceond, there are more players drafted in fantasy baseball – sometimes as many as 10-14 more. Third, there is less certainty in some respects. In football when a RB goes down you know who the team will turn to for 20 touches the next week. In baseball, when a starter goes down, there is often a mix and match scenario that takes place, in addition to there being nothing akin to the replacement player being given a ton of touches and work at the goaline. Simply put – the situation is more variable in baseball.

As for some general rules, here is what I would suggest.

(1) Never draft a closer in the first couple of rounds. Don’t wait until the last round like you would with a kicker, but there is no reason to jump into the closer mix until the middle rounds of a draft.

(2) I would not take a starting pitcher in the first round. Moreover, in most scenarios, I wouldn’t take a starting pitcher in the first five rounds of a draft. This is not a hard and fast rule of course, but I rarely deviate from this plan unless I’m in a scoring setup which favors pitchers. In a standard 5×5 setup, there will be plenty of pitching available in the middle rounds.

(3) I would never take a catcher in the first round. I probably wouldn’t take one in the first couple of rounds actually. Catchers are so susceptible to injury, especially foul tips to their hands or issues with their knees, that consistency from them is elusive. It’s also not at all rare for a starting catcher to play 75 to 80 percent of their teams games, and that dampens the ability for them to post strong counting totals (especially in the RBI and runs scored columns).

(4) While paying attention to position scarcity early on, at least in the first couple of rounds I’m still targeting the best players with my first few selections. As an example, I’m not going to draft Jose Reyes in the second round if players like Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen are still there. Reyes might play shortstop, a position that is in arguably thinner than the outfield, but if I have Kemp, Upton and McCutchen ranked ahead of Reyes on my draft board, I’m still going to go with the outfielders.

Have fun with it – and welcome to the world of fantasy baseball.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Happy V-Day

In honor of Valentine’s Day – and for those of you who are without a sweetie don’t worry, I feel your pain – I thought I would review the big league pitchers who have last names that start with “V.” I know, how original right? Here are my thoughts on their value for 2011.

Jose Valverde, Tigers: Consistently going off the board as a top-12 closing option, Valverde has at least 25 saves in each of the past four seasons – something only five others have done (Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez). Valverde also has more K’s than innings pitched in his career (533 in 449) while posting a WHIP under 1.20 in each of the past four years. Injuries are always a concern, as is his explosive personality, but the guy still brings it (career .205 batting average against).

Jason Vargas, Mariners: This hurler had a solid set of ratios last year with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 192.2 innings, helping many a club to win a fantasy championship given that he was a waiver-wire pickup. At the same time, a repeat seems unlikely. His K/9 rate was just 5.42 leading to a slightly below average 2.15 K/BB mark (league in 2010: 2.17), and his 0.77 GB/FB ratio is a concern. That last mark troubles me. Somehow Vargas allowed 47 percent of batted balls to go skyward, a high mark. If that happens again, he’ll have no shot keeping his HR/9 mark below 1.00 (it was 0.84). Look at it this way – his HR/F rate last year was 6.1 percent, this after 3-straight years of at least 11.7 percent. Tread carefully.

Javier Vazquez, Marlins: He was never going to have success in the pressure cooker with the Yankees, or in the American League. Will he rebound from his 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP now that he is back in the NL? I think he has to considering that he owns a career ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.26. However, I’m concerned that his K/9 dropped to 6.92, the first time its been below 8.00 since 2004 (when he was also with the Yankees). Add in the fact that his average fastball dipped below 91 mph for the first time since 2004 (it was 88.7) and that his BB/9 rate was 3.72 (career 2.42), and I’m not expecting a full rebound, just a moderate one.

Jonny Venters, Braves: Most assume that Craig Kimbrel will open the year as the closer for the Braves, but Venters figures to be heavily involved in the late innings. Venters, a lefty, dominated as a rookie last year with a 10.08 K/9 mark, though he needs to work on the walks (4.23 per nine). If he can cut down the walks while maintaining his insanely high 4.15 GB/FB ratio, he’ll be a late inning ace for years to come.

Justin Verlander, Tigers: An ace, it would be a surprise if he fell outside the top-15 amongst starters and the top-75 overall. Verlander has been a complete beast the last two years after a bit of a hiccup in 2008 as he has 37 wins (4th in baseball), 488 strikeouts (2nd in baseball behind Tim Lincecum’s 492), a 9.46 K/9 mark (6th in baseball) and a 3.41 ERA (22nd in baseball). Told you he was a stud.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: He reportedly turned down a 4-year deal because he didn’t think the Reds offered enough money (he is playing on a $1.6 million 1-year deal). While he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, there continue to be concerns about his ability to throw strikes (he has a walk per nine rate well in excess of five the past two years). His arm is dynamic, he’ll strike out a guy per inning, and if he throws strikes we already know what the upside looks like (17-6, 3.21 ERA, 206 Ks in 196 IP in 2008).

Chris Volstad, Marlins: One game over .500 (27-26) over nearly 420 career innings, Volstad is a ground ball hurler who depends on his defense and the ball ending up in his fielder’s gloves. He won’t strike out many (5.62 K/9 career), his walk rate is merely average (3.33 per nine), his HR/9 mark is average (1.05) as is his BABIP (.289 in his career). That’s a whole lot of average. Volstad can eat innings, and he is still young, but there is little in his pitching line that suggests he will ever be a top echelon arm.

MLB Grab Bag

The MLB Grab Bag is in full effect today. I’m going to meander around the world of baseball today, and I might even through in some none baseball stuff too.

I keep getting questions about Jose Bautista. Let me state it again – he has zero chance of repeating his 2010 effort. Obviously he will regress, the question is how much? I’m looking at a .260-30-90 type effort – though I really hate trying to predict the actual numbers. For more on the situation give Breaking Down: Jose Bautista a few minutes of your time.

I’m still nauseated by the Alex Rodriguez, Cameron Diaz food-feeding incident from the Super Bowl. Click on A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest for a rundown of the whole scene.

AUDIO: Looking for 10 minutes of superfantastic baseball talk? If you are make sure you listen to my interview with the Davis Sports Deli where we chatted about Albert Pujols, the state of the Red Sox and Yankees, why the Royals just can’t figure it out and just how good the Rangers offense could be.

I wrote about the signings of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott and Orlando Cabrera over in MLB News and Notes: February 11. A quick review – Its a good deal for the Rangers. Weaver is a stud. Marcum is on the verge of becoming a fantasy star. Guthrie is likely a better pitcher than you think. Luke Scott, so-so. Orlando Cabrera is nothing more than a place holder.

I can’t help it. Every time Katy Perry’s California Gurls comes on the radio I end up bobbing my head. Man, I gotta get a date.

Nick Swisher is changing from his long time agent over to the Dark Lord of the Sith – Scott Boras. I’ve got four thoughts on this matter. (1) The timing of this is odd. Swisher is under contract fort this season at $9.0 million, and he has a $10.25 million club option for next season. (2) Swisher had a strong season last year. He should be productive this season, he always is, but I don’t think he will be able to replicate some of the numbers he put up last year. For more on the outlook of Swisher for 2011 give my 2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher a read. (3) Scott Boras is flat out amazing. (4) Speaking of the Dark Lord, did you catch the best commercial of the Super Bowl, you know, the one with the young Darth Vader discovering the power of The Force?

There’s just no way that the Cardinals and Albert Pujols don’t work out a contract extension is there? If it doesn’t happen, could he join the San Francisco Giants? I admit it, it’s a total pipe dream with less chance of becoming a reality than me finding the woman of my dreams and getting married this weekend in a wildly romantic setting overlooking the Pacific Ocean. Can’t blame a kid for dreaming though can you?

I was a great hitter but my defense was, to be kind, poor. I’m 21st all-time in OBP and 25th in SLG while my overall OPS of .974 is the 15th best mark ever posted in the history of the game. Who Am I?

Did you see the report that Edinson Volquez turned down a 4-year deal from the Reds? The dude must have some serious stones. There’s no mention in the report of how much he was offered, but here is a quote from Volquez. “They were offering me a contract for four years, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I didn’t feel it was right for me..” It’s unclear if Volquez was saying that they offered him four years like Cueto or if they offered him the same exact deal for $27 million. Either way, I’m surprised that Volquez didn’t jump on the deal unless it was a total low ball offer. Volquez will make $1.6 million this season as he bets on himself and his continued return to prominence.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 10, 2010

(1) Johan Santana done for year – shoulder surgery.

(2) Cliff Lee (back) to start on Sunday vs. Yankees.

(3) Josh Johnson (shoulder) will throw on Saturday.

(4) Josh Hamilton showing scant improvement with ribs.

(5) Edinson Volquez back in rotation for Reds.

(6) Justin Upton (shoulder) still sitting.

(7) Former QB Pat White signs with Royals.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 30, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman to be called up on Tuesday.

(2) Manny Ramirez officially a White Sox player.

(3) Colby Rasmus (calf) back in the lineup.

(4) Nelson Cruz (hamstring) back from DL.

(5) Freddy Sanchez super hot at dish.

(6) Jose Tabata impressing with Pirates.

(7) Carlos Lee finally hitting his stride.

(8) Daniel Hudson a star for D’backs.

By Ray Flowers