Draft Day Challenge, May 14

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Joe Mauer

McCann has hit the ground a running with a .333 average, three homers and 10 RBIs in his first 21 at-bats. He’s 0-for-2 against the hot Patrick Corbin, but McCann is going so well, including 7-for-17 of late (.412), that you should be starting him regardless.

You could obviously list Mauer’s name in every one of these writeups and be fine, but he’s scalding right now. Mauer has hit .447 the past two weeks with 13 runs scored. That’s enough to overlook his “mere” .316 mark against Mr. Peavy over 29 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Edwin Encarnacion
2. Billy Butler

EE faces Barry Zito, in Toronto. That alone should make you interested. When you hear what he has done in nine plate appearances, your interest better be piqued: 4-for-7, two homers, eight RBIs. He also has two homers and six RBIs the past week.

Coming off a huge game (five hits, five RBIs), there is no reason to expect Butler to slow down against Jason Vargas considering he has six hits and three walks in 16 PAs against him. The end result is a .462 average, .563 OBP, two homers and five RBIs.

SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Neil Walker

Cano faces the all mighty King Felix Tuesday, but he’s had a ton of success in the matchup. Besides only striking out six times in 41 at-bats he’s also hit .366 with two homers and five RBIs.

Walker is back from the DL, and though he went 0-for-4 in his first game, perhaps facing Kyle Lohse will help. Walker has eight hits, to go along with five RBIs, in 20 at-bats (.400 average).

THIRD BASE
1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adrian Beltre

It’s borderline stupid to suggest playing anyone against Mr. Kershaw, but here goes. Zimmerman has four hits in nine at-bats against the lefty with nary a strikeout. He’s also starting to warm at the dish with a .318 mark and five RBIs the past week.

Going with two vets at the hot corner today. Beltre has hit .316 with five homers and 14 RBIs against Bartolo Colon over 57 at-bats. He owns him, or something like that. Beltre has also hist .346 with two homers and seven RBIs the past week.

SHORTSTOP
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jayson Nix

Oh that John Lackey. Seems like many batters enjoys seeing him on the bump anymore. Zobrist is 8-for-20, a cool .400 average, with five walks against Lackey leading to a .538 OBP.

Jeter and Nunez are down and out, so Nix is the starter at short for the Yankees. He’s produced five hits in 10 at-bats against King Felix and he’s also rapped out eight hits, and six runs, over the past week of games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jose Tabata
2. Andre Ethier

Add Tabata to the list of guys that crush Mr. Lohse. Well crush might be too strong a term, but he does have 10 hits in 21 at-bats (.476), and that’s impressive. Tabata also has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats this season.

Ethier is hitting only .254 on the year, but things are looking up. He’s hit .318 the past week, and now he gets to face Dan Haren who he has only hit .426 against in 47 at-bats (two homer,s seven RBIs as well).

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Tillman
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Julio Teheran
4. Scott Kazmir

Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last four starts and he takes on the Padres Tuesday. That’s usually a good thing, facing the Padres, right?

The last three weeks Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He faces an Angels team that has scored just 156 runs this season, the same total as the Astros.

The Braves haven’t lost a single one of Teheran’s starts this season, even if he is only 2-0 on the season. In his last three starts he has allowed a total of six runs which is impressive even if he has only 11 Ks and has allowed 25 hits (19.1 innings). He faces the D’backs.

Kazmir is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, not to mention 21 Ks, over his last 17 innings. I picked him up this week in two leagues. Must mean he’s bound to fall on his face. He faces a Phillies team that has a .619 OPS over their last eight games.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, May 2

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. A.J. Pierzynski

Wieters is always a strong option. He’s only faced Blanton three times but he has two hits. He’s also driven in five runs in his last four games.

I gotta be honest. It’s really hard to find a viable option at catcher Thursday based on matchups. Pierzynski is only 5-for-14 in his career, and he’s been hurt of late, but it’s against his former team so maybe he summons something special.

FIRST BASE
1. Mitch Moreland
2. Edwin Encarnacion

Mr. Moreland is batting .429 the past week with nine hits, including four doubles, in 21 at-bats. He faces Mr. Peavy, and their history only includes six at-bats. Moreland has stroked a hit three times, twice going deep, on his way to five RBIs.

Encarnacion has blasted five homers, driven in eight runs and has scored seven times the past seven days. He’s only 1-for-11 against Ryan Dempster.

SECOND BASE
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Omar Infante

Pedroia is hitting .435 the past week. He’s hitting .330 on the year. He’s hit .309 in his career against lefties. He faces lefty J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays.

The Tigers face Jordan Lyles in his first appearances of the 2013 season (he owns a 5.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 235.1 big league innings). Infante is batting .381 with two homers and seven runs scored over his last 23 plate appearances.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2.Manny Machado

Headley went deep Wednesday and he could keep the good times a rollin’ Thursday against Travis Wood a hurler he has beaten for six hits, including two big flies, in 12 at-bats.

Machado faces Mr. Blanton. Machado also has scored seven times the past week while batting, get this, .406 with an OPS of 1.112. He’s hot, hot, hot.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Yuniesky Betancourt

Andrus has had a disappointing start to the year. But things are slowly improving. He’s hitting .292 the past week and he faces Peavy whom he has four hits against in 12 at-bats.

Betancourt has four homers and seven RBIs in the past week. It’s a mirage. Maybe he can keep it going for another day against J. Westbrook whom he has gone 8-for-22 against in his career (.364).

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. B.J. Upton

Markakis faces the very hittable Joe Blanton Thursday, a righty whom he has rapped six hits against in 12 at-bats (he also driven in four runs).

It all starts today. Upton remembers he’s an elite talent. He faces homer prone Dan Haren who has, shockingly, given up homers to Upton. In 31 at-bats Upton is hitting .323, but it’s the five homers that really stick out.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Kyle Kendrick
2. Travis Wood
3. Ervin Santana
4. Jake Westbrook

Kendrick is the type of pitcher I avoid in roto leagues, he’s got soft skills, but if you’re looking at a one day matchup it’s not always so clear cut. Over his last four starts he is undefeated with a 1.29 ERA an a WHIP under 1.00. Now he faces the Marlins. He’s also 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA against the Marlins since 2010. Nuff said.

Wood has lasted at least six innings in all five of his starts and never allowed more than two earned runs. The Padres are not an offensive juggernaut by any means either.

Santana is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP the past three weeks. He plays in an early game, so hopefully you get this news on the quick. He faces a Rays club that is 10th in the AL in runs, is batting .244 with a .311 OBP, and one that has had long stretches of ineffectiveness.

I wrote earlier this week to sell Jake Westbrook in Surgers and Slumpers, so why am I suggesting you start him Thursday? Remember, we’re talking one start here, not 25. Westbrook does have an ERA under 1.00, and he faces Wily Peralta of the Brewers who hasn’t exactly been lights out. Westbrook also has a 3.06 ERA in his eight career starts against the Brew Crew.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to the site.

By Ray Flowers

FanDuel Contest: $3000 Friday Tournament

Every Friday at BaseballGuys.com, I relay to you how you can sign up for a daily fantasy baseball game courtesy of FanDuel.com. Today is no different. I’ll spend a bit of time detailing how you can win some cash, and then I’ll give away all my secrets by letting you know who should, or shouldn’t, be in your lineup. Oh, and finally, I’m also going to be in the league, so you will get a shot to take down the obnoxious Ray Flowers.

* NOTE: This information about who to play on Friday is clearly something those of you in standard roto leagues should be looking at as well. Let’s just say guys like Prince Fielder and Dustin Pedroia may not be guys you want in your lineup Friday.

$3000 Friday Fantasy Baseball Tournament

You got $10 laying around? Do you want to spend it on a hot dog and beer? Sure you could do that, but in 15 minutes it would be gone. Well, until the hot dog starts repeating on you in about an hour an a half that is. Why not take that $10 and try to win part of the $3000 cash prize given away by FanDuel.com? Here’s what you do.

Sign up using this link.

Select your salary cap roster by 7 PM EDT, Friday.

Watch the games tonight. Pick up your cash (there are 37 spots that pay out… and even the 37th finisher doubles their initial investment).

So sign up, enjoy the night of games, and then win some cash. Maybe you’ll be able to buy a hot dog and a case of beer for your next Friday night.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

The Sky is Falling

A hypochondriac is someone who is obsessed by the idea that they have an illness of some kind when, most of the time, there is no actual condition to be concerned with. I bring that up because in the world of fantasy baseball it seems like there is an epidemic of hypochondria akin to the zombie apocalypse that is portrayed in the television show The Walking Dead. People are freaking out. I’m talking, losing their minds type of situations.

The world is ending.
Life is meaningless.
Resistance is futile.

In what follows are a sampling of the questions I’ve been receiving at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account. Am I being over dramatic with my lead in to this piece? You tell me after reading the following questions/thoughts I’ve received.

I have Erick Aybar at SS but want to improve and have been offered Jed Lowrie for my Joe Mauer.

How long do I hold on to Edwin Encarnacion? He is killing my average.

I know early season, but do you drop Yovani Gallardo for any of these: Clay Buchholz, Hisashi Iwakuma, or Hyun-Jin Ryu?

Do I dump Roy Halladay for Barry Zito, Ervin Santana, Jhoulys Chacin, or Phil Hughes?

Drop Hiroki Kuroda for Alex Cobb? Points league.

Edwin Jackson worth a drop to grab Garrett Richards?

Someone dropped Jason Kipnis in a first year keeper, keep 15.

I get Matt Kemp for Chris Davis. Good move?

I’m not kidding… that’s what you folks are sending me. Let’s go tweet by tweet, quickly though, since there is no reason to spend too much time dealing with this junk.

Lowrie has never played 100 games in a big league season. Mauer is a career .322 hitter who has made five All-Star teams, won four Silver Slugger awards and he is the 20th ranked player in baseball in career WAR among active players (according to BaseballReference).

Encarnacion has gone 2-for-27 leading to a sickly .074 average. Last season he went 1-for-22 from May 3rd to May 9th and he hit .280 on the season. He also hit 42 homers with 110 RBIs.

Gallardo has won 14 games each of the past three seasons, and he’s struck out 200 batters in 4-straight seasons. None of the other three names listed has ever struck out 200 in a season, and only one has even a single season of 14 wins. Oh, and two of them entered the year with less than 20 combined big league starts while the other has made 20 starts twice in the last five years.

Halladay looked bad in camp, and has been similarly poor in his first two starts, but really? There’s a reason that Zito, Santana, Chacin and Hughes weren’t drafted in mixed leagues until the rounds hit the legal drinking age on draft day (folks over at Fleaflicker are staying the course with Halladay as he’s still owned in 92 percent of leagues).

I really like Cobb and his potential, but Kuroda is coming off a season of 16 victories, a 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 167 Ks. Let me know when Cobb reaches a single one of those numbers over a full season.

EJax or Richards? Do I really need to even say anything?

Kipnis was dropped in a league with 15 keepers? Asinine.

Do you trade a flawed hitter on an immense run of success in Davis for an MVP caliber talent that has a season in which he was the greatest fantasy player in the land in Kemp?

Do you see why my blood pressure sometimes goes up, why I’m occasional obnoxious on Twitter, or why I’m frequently dressing down callers on my radio show?

Seriously folks. Let me harken back to an old catch phrase: take a chill pill. Let things marinate. Exercise patience. Life isn’t that bad. Trust your draft. Trust your instincts. Trust me. Stay the course. If you do, you’ll come out in a better place on the back end. Trust me.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Baseball is Back & NBA Sticks Around

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss their Fantasy Hoops disappoints this season. They talk about the players that ruined their seasons and guys that under performed. They also get back to the baseball diamond talking about a few guys they have been wondering about heading into their drafts.

NBA: Dwight Howard, Reggie Evans, Gerald Wallace, Brook Lopez, Al Harrignton, Harrison Barnes, Clay Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins, Meta World Peace

MLB: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Pablo Sandoval, When to draft pitching?

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Player Profile: Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager had a great season last year relative to his draft day cost (think back to your mixed league draft… was his name even called out?). Not many are taking note this year given the fact that he plays for the Mariners and that nothing he does really jumps off the page, but that doesn’t mean he is someone that you should be ignoring late in mixed leagues.

First, a huge negative with Seager. Last season, in many leagues, he qualified as a second baseman (in addition to third base). Given that second sackers with strong numbers are a bit harder to find than those type of producers at third base, we secretly wish every infielder in baseball qualified at second base. Obviously, they don’t. In the case of Seager, which I pointed out in Position Eligibility Matters, Seager will only be third base eligible in most leagues in 2013 after he appeared in 138 games at third base but only 18 at second base last season (14 of those games at second were starts). That’s certainly a ding to the fantasy outlook of Seager. However, does that ‘ding’ mean people will ignore him to the point that he represents another solid draft day buy?

Quick, how many third base eligible players had 20 homers and 10 steals last year? The answer is five: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion and Seager. That mix of pop an a little speed is a solid draw when it comes to Seager. On the flip it’s fair to question how much more he has to give in either category. A look at his minor league record shows a moderate performer in both homers and steals. In 2010 Seager had 14 homers before he went deep 10 times in 2011. That’s not exactly the track record of a guy who appears likely to increase his 20 homer total from last season. It’s not like he was out of control last year though – his HR/F ratio was only 9.8 percent, a totally repeatable number, and his 42.3 percent fly ball rate was also only slightly elevated (the league average is about 35 percent). If given a chance at another 600 at-bats he could repeat the homer total of last season.

As for the steals, I’m less certain there. Not an overly fast player, he’s also shown the propensity to run himself into trouble. In 2010 he recorded 13 steals but was caught 12 times. In 2011 he stole14 bases but was caught seven times. Last year with the Mariners he stole 13 bags while being caught five times. Studies have shown that you have to steal bases with a success rate of at least 67 percent in order to not hurt your team. The last three years he has 40 steals while being caught 24 times. That’s a 63 percent conversion rate meaning he’s actually harming his team more than he is helping it. Good managers should be giving him the red light at least part of the time, though he could steal swipe lower level double digits bags again.

Seager has an 80+ percent contact rate in the big leagues, and that’s a bit above average though it’s not exactly something to write your Congressperson about. He doesn’t strikeout much but he also doesn’t walk a lot, so his 0.40 BB/K ratio through two seasons is slightly below the league average.

Seager hit poorly last season at home: .223/.307/.325
Seager hit poorly against lefties: .237/.281/.377
Seager hit poorly during the day: .228/.320/.389

I’m not saying there aren’t concerns with Seager, there are as I’ve noted, and there is also little chance that he becomes an All-Star in 2013. He doesn’t have an outstanding skill that props up his fantasy value, but if he’s allowed to take the field 150+ times again the counting numbers aren’t going to embarrass anyone. Remember Casey Blake? It always seemed like he was undervalued on draft day so you grabbed him in the late rounds in mixed leagues when there was no one else left, and by the time the season was over he always turned a nice profit for you. That’s the kind of player Seager is. You roster him late in drafts, at a point where if he fails it won’t hurt too bad, but also at a point where his 20-70-60-10 line provides you a tidy profit. That means he is nothing more than a corner infield option in mixed leagues. However, in AL-only leagues his value improves significantly to the point where you should be feeling pretty about your prospects if you can roster him at a reasonable price.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Positional Eligibility Matters

The Tigers announced, through GM Dave Dombrowski, that Victor Martinez will not catch in 2013 as the Tigers plan to let Alex Avila and Brayan Pena handle the tools of ignorance. This decision has a whole bunch of fantasy implications that need to be investigated an understood, so I will use V-Mart as my primary discussion point on positional eligibility before listing a whole series of other players who may or may not be worth an extra bit of emphasis on draft day because of the positions on the field that they are, or aren’t, qualified for in the fantasy game.

(1) If V-Mart doesn’t catch in 2013 and only suits up at DH what does that do to his positional eligibility in your fantasy league? Usually we just look back to the previous season and see if the guy played 20 games at a position. If he did, then we just lock him into eligibility for that position. However, Victor didn’t play a single game last year after he injured his knee (he tore his ACL and had surgery. Current reports suggest that he should be good to go for Opening Day). Does that mean he will only be DH eligible in 2013, or does your league do what I think is the correct thing to do which is to look back at the last season the player actually appeared in the big leagues? If we take that tact and look back at 2011 we find that Martinez did appear in 26 games as a catcher and therefore should be catcher eligible in 2013. This is a vital question to answer – where does Martinez qualify in 2013? As a catching option Martinez is a potentially elite play. As a DH only player he’s merely a solid option. Huge difference in value as a result of where he qualifies.

(2) If he really isn’t going to catch, what happens in interleague play when the Tigers face an NL club? Obviously he isn’t going to play first base with Prince Fielder there. Does that mean when the Tigers are forced to play an “NL game” that Victor will merely be limited to pinch hitting duties? Does that negate the potential benefits he should derive from being a full-time DH since he won’t be able to start for stretches of time? Also, how will he respond to being out of the starting lineup for days at a time when the Tigers face those NL clubs? A few points to consider when it comes to evaluating the expected levels of production that one should expect from Martinez in 2013. Obviously, there’s a lot to think about with a guy like V-Mart beyond what should one be expecting from his bat (I would assume that he will return as a very impressive hitter, though what exactly that means is a tad uncertain. I’d be looking at his 2010 effort as my baseline, and in that season he hit .302 with 20 homers and 79 RBIs. Don’t forget that the 34 year old sat out an entire season last year, and that is significant even if many will try to minimize its importance).

Here are some other key players to think about in terms of how their positional eligibility effects their value. Remember, the standard for most leagues is 20 games played at a position the previous year.

Mike Aviles is only shortstop eligible after appearing in two games at second and one at third.

Jose Bautista will only qualify as an outfielder in 2013 after appearing in only one game at third and four at first in 2012.

Brandon Belt appeared in only four games in the outfield losing eligibility there.

Emilio Bonifacio plays all over the place and he should do the same thing for the Blue Jays in 2013. Here are his games played totals from last season: outfield (51 games), second base (15 games). So much for his second, third and shortstop eligibility from ’11.

Billy Butler appeared in only 11 games at first base in 2011 causing him to be DH only eligible in 2012. He rectified that situation by appearing in 20 games at first in 2012.

Chris Davis lost third base from his ledger (zero games), but he is still eligible at first and the outfield.

Edwin Encarnacion is only first base eligible in 2013. He suited up just one time at third base last season.

Adrian Gonzalez fell just short of qualifying in the outfield with 18 games in right field.

Mike Morse appeared in only one game at first base.

Trevor Plouffe has a nice power bat but he qualifies only at third base (95 games) heading into the season. He should be a starter in the outfield for the Twins in 2013, but he appeared in only 17 games in the outfield, four at second and one at short last season.

Martin Prado appeared in 119 games in the outfield, 25 at third, 13 at shortstop, 10 at second and four at first base.

Hanley Ramirez appeared 98 times at third and 57 times at shortstop. Don’t forget that also means that he is eligible to fill the middle and corner infield spots.

Mark Reynolds appeared in 108 games at first but only 15 at third base.

Kyle Seager qualifies at third base (138 games) but not at second (18 games, 14 starts).

Mark Trumbo may or may not qualify as a first baseman for you. He appeared in 21 games at first base last season but only 16 as a starter. Does your league use starts or appearances as the benchmark? Make sure you check it out.

Michael Young appeared in 41 games at first and 25 games at third base. He was only a second sacker 16 times.

Ben Zobrist is a money play in 2013. Not only does he produced impressive numbers at the dish, but he also qualifies at second (58 games), outfield (71 games) and, here’s the kicker, shortstop (47 games). That ability to fill three roster spots is golden and certainly bumps up his value substantially, especially in deeper leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Edwin Encarnacion

Jason Collette of Rotowire.com and Cory Schwartz of MLB.com and I all have an unhealthy love for Edwin Encarnacion (fittingly, Cory outbid me for Encarnacion last year in Tout Wars – I was the runner up bidder. Cory, by the way, was sitting immediately to my left at the draft while Jason was sitting immediately to my right recording the results, real time, for the internet audience). For years the three of us pushed people to draft EE, and for years we looked only mildly intelligent. However, with one fell swoop EE made us all look like geniuses with not only his best season but one of the better all-around seasons by a third baseman in the 21st century. What can Edwin do for an encore, and will Jason, Cory and myself be pushing him as hard in 2013 as we have the past few years?

Looking just at the results, EE had a HOF type season for a third sacker as he hit .280 with 42 homers, 110 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 13 steals. In the history of baseball there have been six seasons of .280-40-110-90-10 at the third base position (Alex Rodriguez did it twice, then single season efforts from Ken Caminiti, Dick Allen, Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones and EE). Honestly there have only been five such seasons by full time third sackers as EE appeared in only one game at third base in 2012 (he was eligible at the position in fantasy after appearing in 36 games at the hot corner in 2012). So while putting him in that group is sort of cheating, it doesn’t take away from a spectacular season for the fantasy game in 2012. Let’s look at his skill set and see where we should set expectations for a guy who, in his 8th season, exploded onto the scene.

EE is never going to be a batting average booster. His .280 batting average in 2012 was the second best mark of his career, he hit .289 in 2007, and only once from 2008-11 did he hit even .270. Why? Pretty simple really. He’s just not a great hitter – the 2006 season was the last time he posted a line drive rate of 20 percent, and his career BABIP is .280. Neither of those two numbers is anything close to being something to be proud of. On the plus side EE usually doesn’t give away too many at-bats, he’s only struck out 100 times once and his K-rate has been under 16.5 percent the past three years (a solid number in today’s game). Last season was the first time that he really took to the walk as his 13 percent walk rate was well above his nine percent mark entering the year. If he continues along those lines his outlook would remain strong (his 0.89 BB/K ratio from 2012 dwarfs his previous career best of 0.60).

Moving on from the average, what about the power output? Always a fly ball hitter, one of the other reasons his average has never risen to the level of excitement, EE owns a 45 percent career fly ball rate (about 10 percent above league average). In ’12 Edwin had a 49.5 percent fly ball rate, the third highest mark of his career, and that certainly played a part in his homer explosion. There are two other major factors. The most obvious being an 18.7 HR/F ratio, fifty percent better than his 12 percent career mark entering last season. So Encarnacion hit more fly balls than normal and those fly balls reached the seats more often than at any previous time in his career. Add in the fact that he appeared in 151 games, a career best and his first season over 140 games since 2008, and you have another pertinent reason for his growth – he was on the field more than ever before (his total of 644 plate appearances was 62 more than ever before). That certainly helps one to produce in the counting categories.

Let’s keep things simple here. For seven seasons EE teased. In year eight he became a superstar. What that means is that for 87.5 percent of his big league career he has been solid, and 12.5 percent of the time he has been elite. Teammate Jose Bautista followed a similar path and backed up his breakout season with another impressive campaign (he was on his way to a second strong follow up before injuries limited him to just 92 games in 2012). Will Edwin be able to follow that same path? Remember the following before you go all in with EE in ’13.

He had never hit 27 homers before going for 42 last year.
He had never driven in 80 runs before going for 110 last year.
He had never scored 80 runs before going for 93 last year.
He had never stolen more than eight bases before going for 13 last year. He stole a grand total of 12 bases in the previous four seasons (2008-11).

Heading into the 2013 fantasy campaign Edwin Encarnacion’s value is limited off the hop – the only position he will qualify for is first base. That really hurts his value. Add in the fact that he took such a substantial step forward in year eight that it must at least be considered that 2012 will go down as a career best effort. The pendulum hasn’t swung completely, I’m not going to suggest avoiding Edwin after pleading for people to draft him for five years, but I will exercise a word of caution with Edwin. I find it hard to believe he will be able to replicate his 2012 numbers. If you draft him hoping for 80 percent of last year’s production I’d be OK with that, but you will almost certainly have to draft him earlier than that projection would lead you to considering the hype he will likely draw at the draft table.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Baseball Finale

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray take a look back at the season that is almost over. They discuss surprises. Mistakes they made to begin the season, and predictions that did AND didn’t come true.

Raul Ibanez, J.D. Martinez, Bryan LaHair, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Rickey Romero, Edwin Encarnacion, Chase Headley, A.J. Pierzynski, R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Kris Medlen.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Around the Horn: July10, 2012

FIRST HALF SURPRISES

(1) Mike Trout most valuable players since call up.

(2) R.A. Dickey #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball.

(3) Edwin Encarnacion living up to expectations.

(4) Melky Cabrera excelling for Giants.

(5) Jason Kipnis 20/30 threat.

(6) Ian Desmond the top SS in fantasy.

(7) Jake Peavy and Johan Santana putting injury woes behind them?

(8) Lance Lynn has been great, but bullpen in future?

(9) Fernando Rodney best RP in game?

By Ray Flowers