Player Profile: James McDonald

On fantasy baseball draft day 2012 no one was buying Pirates’ hurlers. A.J. Burnett was hurt, Erik Bedard would be hurt soon (he always is – though surprisingly he wasn’t in 2012), and while James McDonald owned a good arm he’d yet to flash it consistently at the big league level. At the All-Star Break lots of people had interest in Pirates’ hurlers. Burnett was 10-2 with a 3.68 ERA, and McDonald was out of control good channeling Doug Drabek as he was 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (Bedard made it through the half healthy but he went 4-10 with a 4.80 ERA). Things went south for the entire Pirates team in the second half, and no player typified that derailment better than McDonald who limped to the finish with a 3-5 record, 7.52 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last 13 outings. So who is McDonald? Is he the first half superstar, the second half loser, or the pitcher who overall went 12-8 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 151 Ks in 171 innings pitched?

I usually don’t do this, but I’m going to give my answer before breaking down the player. Is McDonald an elite hurler? Certainly not. Is he so bad that he should be in Double-A? You know the answer to that is also a big fat no. That means, of the three categories I offered, that James is closest to the pitcher we saw for the duration of the 2012 season. I’m thinking Edwin Jackson like here, and if you owned McDonald you know what I mean as he was, at times, spectacular, and at other times spectacularly bad. Many will overlook McDonald on draft day because of his painful to contemplate second half numbers, but do yourself a favor and look at his season long numbers for the true picture. In fact, let’s compare his 2012 effort to his 2011 season. I know there isn’t one person in the world that would call McDonald consistent based upon his 2012 effort, but in reality, his season-to-season work was extremely consistent in a few key categories.

2011: 171 IP, 4.21 ERA, 0.92 GB/FB, 11.0 HR/F, 7.47 K/9
2012: 171 IP, 4.21 ERA, 0.99 GB/FB, 11.3 HR/F, 7.95 K/9

Remarkable isn’t it? And this brings up the point of perception. If you owned McDonald in the first half and kept your head about you, there was an understanding that McDonald was pitching well over his head and that at some point you would bail on him when things went south. If you turned away from logic and expected McDonald to keep up his first half run in the second half you were left as one angry, dispirited person. For the first group the perception is that McDonald just slowed down to become the pitcher he is (after all, look at the similarity in the numbers I listed above). If you were in the second ground you think that McDonald isn’t even a big league hurler, that he’s garbage, and that you would be a fool to look at him in 2013.

As I said at the top, I think the overall performance we saw last season is more of the hurler that McDonald is. His catastrophic failures in the second half, in my eyes, present a solid buy low opportunity in 2013. In addition to the similarities between his 2011 and 2012 numbers in a myriad of categories, there are a few other reasons to view McDonald’s 2012 season with a positive eye despite his deplorable finish.

McD recaptured half a K per nine innings over his 2011 mark, and his 7.95 mark is a strong number that is in excess of his 7.78 career mark. McDonald also cut his walk rate down to 3.63, about half a batter better than 2011. Those two moves allowed his K/BB ratio to go from a pathetic 1.82 in 2011 to a borderline passable 2.19 in 2012 (it was just under three tenths off the league average). As a result of the reduction in walks, his WHIP also went from an unacceptable 1.49 to 1.26 in 2012. That’s a better than league average number. Though his ERA was the same in both years, his SIERA and xFIP both say that the events under his control painted him to be a slightly better performer in 2012. Incremental growth from a guy in his second full season as a big league starter is encouraging.

I think McDonald can improve upon the numbers he posted the last two seasons. I also think that his draft day value will be beaten down by that dreadful second half so that McDonald will end up being available at a point in nearly every draft where he couldn’t help but represent a strong buy low option.
By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August28, 2012

(1) Erik Bedard released by Pirates. Kevin Correia to take over.

(2) Mark Teixeira out 1-2 weeks with calf strain.

(3) Felix Hernandez tosses 5th shutout. Amazing in second half.

(4) Tyler Colvin hot again.

(5) Brett Jackson driving ball into seats. Still striking out.

(6) Luke Gregerson Padres new closer?

(7) Dice-K on waivers. Roy Oswalt passes through waivers.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Frown – Upside Down

How fun is fantasy baseball? Instead of bemoaning the struggles of certain players, why don’t we turn that frown upside down and see if there might be some players who have failed to live up to expectations to this point of the season that might be able to lend a boost to our fantasy squad moving forward. That’s a noble goal is it not? I’ll also talk about a former Cy Young winner who may have finally turned the corner, a reliever you’ve never probably heard of who leads baseball in wins, and a former fantasy superstar who is slowing improving physically in his attempt to come back from a mysterious knee injury.

Daniel Bard picked up his first win of the season Monday night, while pitching out of the bullpen, but he is still currently scheduled to make his start on Friday against the White Sox. The Red Sox though may have no other choice than to slot Bard in as their 9th inning arm (even though Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox manager, said that moving Bard back to the pen full time “doesn’t look like a great temptation.”). Bard has 13 Ks in 12.1 innings this season, but he’s also 1-2 with nine walks allowed an a 1.70 WHIP. Even if he had been successful as a starter, the Sox would still have to consider him for the 9th inning since they just can’t afford to give away games late. Alfredo Aceves, Vincente Padilla, Franklin Morales, Justin Thomas… boy do the Sox miss Andrew Bailey. If Bard is on waivers he’s worth adding in the hope that he’ll be asked to work the 9th greatly improving his fantasy value – even though the Red Sox are currently saying that isn’t going to happen.

Erik Bedard is 0-4 though he does have a 2.62 ERA after allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. Wins may be tough to come by for the lefty in Pittsburgh, but I’ll continue to say it – when healthy he can be a mixed league option worthy of pretty much being an every game starter.

Chipper Jones didn’t start again on Monday. He continues to be a daily disaster, you never know when he’s going to be playing, but he also continues to be might successful when on the field. No only is he hitting .276 with two homers and eight RBI in nine games, but he has a .870 OPS. That’s a better number than guys like Miguel Cabrera (.857), Adrian Beltre (.826), Alex Rodriguez (.800) and Jose Bautista (.771).

Tim Lincecum was much better in his fourth start of the season Monday (5 IP, 1 ER, 8Ks, 5 BBs). I got a chance to watch nearly every pitch he tossed, an I liked what I saw. His pitches were darting all over the strike zone, but he wasn’t locked in as he missed the target on many of the pitches. Still, this was an improvement over the way that he opened up the season, so you have to be feeling pretty good if you didn’t panic and decided to hold on to him (or if you dealt to add him).

Kyle Lohse is up to 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA. I’m still not buying it. No way he continues to hold batters to a .170 batting average, and as impressive as his control was last year (2.01 BB per nine), the man isn’t going to continue to walk one batter every 13 innings. Now is the perfect time to sell high. If you don’t, just make sure you remember me when his performance tanks in relation to his current levels.

Vodka and Red Bull – nectar from the gods? Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm would agree.

Vulture wins anyone? Robbie Ross has worked five games covering 5.1 innings. All he’s done is rack up three wins. Do you even know what team he is on? Try the Rangers. This is just another example of why it is virtually impossible to predict wins in the fantasy game – Robbie Fricken’ Ross is tied for the major league lead with three victories.

Chase Utley (knee) did some things Monday, and that included fielding grounders. Though he is said to be feeling stronger and making progress, he also admitted that while BP cause him no discomfort that fielding those grounders was still bothering him. There is no timetable in this continually vexing situation that the Phillies have not been able to clarify in the least (apparently Utley doesn’t want his medical information shared, which is his right of course, but it sure plays havoc with what reasonable expectations should be this year). There’s been some discussion of Utley possibly playing some first base when he comes back, though Jim Thome and Ryan Howard obviously can’t play anywhere else on the diamond. I’ll bet that Utley’s bat still has some juice left in it, but it’s growing harder and harder to hold on to him in 12 team mixed leagues unless you have a DL spot.

Miguel Bautista started Game 1 of the Mets/Giants doubleheader Monday. You remember back in 2005 when, a year after going 10-13 with a 4.85 ERA, that the Blue Jays asked Bautista to close leading to 31 saves? Since then he has four saves — in six years.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7th, 2011

Rumors are flying at the Winter Meetings, but there are a few deals that have actually been completed.

Huston Street was believed to have been dealt to the Padres as the club from southern California was thought to have done a great job covering up for the loss of Heath Bell to the Marlins. However, reports are now circulating that not only is the deal not complete but the Rockies are still in active negotiations with at least one other team about Street. We’ll wait an see how this plays out, but it’s a certainty that Street will be dealt as the Rockies feel confident that Rafael Betancourt can handle the 9th inning.

*UPDATE: The deal sending Street to the Padres was finally ratified. Street will serve as the closer for the Padres in 2012.

Erik Bedard is an impressive hurler when he is capable of dragging his weary bones onto the field. Last season he may have gone 5-9 but he also posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and an 8.70 K/9 mark proving how effective he could be. However, the downside is that he only made 24 starts covering 129.1 innings (his biggest innings pitched mark in four seasons). The Pirates have decided to look past the litany of injuries to sign Bedard to relatively painless 1-year deal for $4.5 million. It’s a nice signing if he can stay healthy.

Frank Francisco has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Mets with reports suggesting he will be paid about $12 million. The Mets also signed Jon Rauch to help to bolster their bullpen, but the arm to target in the fantasy game is Francisco. The projected closer in 2012, Francisco owns an electric arm but he’s struggled to stay healthy and consistent when on the mound. Still, the guy has 368 Ks in 334 career innings, and the past three years he’s brought his walk total down to the major league average (3.01 per nine). He’s got a chance to be a solid closer for the Metropolitans.

Nate McLouth signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates for a reported $1.75 million. McLouth had his greatest success as a Pirate before a couple of somewhat troubled seasons in Atlanta where his production was terrible and he struggled to stay healthy. Still just 30 years old, McLouth was a fantasy standout just a few seasons ago as he averaged 23 homers, 99 runs scored, 82 RBI and 21 steals over the 2008-09 campaigns.

The Giants and Mets made a deal that saw them exchange outfielders that have followed similar paths. The deal is this: the Giants receive Angel Pagan while the Mets pick up Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The reliever, Ramirez, is a solid NL-only arm in the fantasy game, but this deal is all about the outfielders. In 2010 both were fantasy all-stars, but both slumped in 2011. Torres has more power than Pagan, but his OPS dropped to .643 last season as he looked lost for long stretches of time. Pagan, who hit .290 and stole 37 bags in 2010, fell to .262 with 32 steals last season. Given the dearth of athleticism in the Giants’ lockeroom Pagan figures to hit at the top of the order for the G-Men. For the Giants sake, I certainly hope they don’t think that adding Pagan and Melky Cabrera gives them enough offense to compliment their wonderful pitching.

Still Twisting

Albert Pujols is apparently leaning toward returning to St. Louis as reports suggest that the Cards and Marlins both offered him very similar contracts.

Prince Fielder is the bat that teams will focus on adding when the Pujols situation is resolved. I’ve been hearing that the Blue Jays, Mariners and Marlins (if they lose out on Pujols) might be the two most aggressive teams to add the portly slugger.

Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez are said to be available, but teams will have to “overpay” the Athletics to add their services. At the moment, it looks like the market for Gonzalez is more active.

Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers is the hot rumor right now. It makes a lot of sense given that Prince Fielder will not be back and that the Brew Crew do not want to have to count on Casey McGehee rebounding in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Deadline Deals

The trade deadline came and went. Some big names were dealt while others need not change their address labels for their mail. A few thoughts on some of the bigger names that were dealt are below.

Mike Adams, Rangers: I keep saying it – there isn’t a better right-handed reliever in baseball (1.12 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.44 K.BB).

Erik Bedard, Red Sox: As injury prone as any player in the game, Bedard is nearly always successful when on the hill. Just 4-7 his record figures to do a 180 with the Red Sox offense behind him. He had better pitch well though, and stay healthy, as Clay Buchholz (back) is likely done for the year.

Carlos Beltran, Giants: He has only two hits in 17 at-bats with the Giants but he figures to settle right in and be the best run producer on the club.

Michael Bourn, Braves: You know you suck, and yes I’m talking to you Astros, when you deal the best base stealer in the league (39 thefts), a guy who is hitting .303 and one who is also under contract for 2012 (arbitration eligible). His value goes up with a better lineup around him.

Doug Fister, Tigers: This guys a solid big leaguer. He has a strong 1.17 WHIP, while his ERA is also good at 3.33. You can’t blame him for his 3-12 record since the Mariners offense is just pathetic, but Fister offers little to excite in the fantasy game. He goes out and give you six innings, he’s actually done it 14-straight starts though only nine of those outings fall into the “quality start” category. His value goes up slightly with the deal since he might actually pick up a few wins.

Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: How in the world is Furcal hitting .196? Pathetic. He has hit better since the All-Star break at .217, but that’s like saying your traded in your Yugo for a Festiva. He’s still got talent and if he hits at the top of the order he has a bushel of bats behind him to knock him in.

Edwin Jackson, Cardinals: I gave my thoughts on Jackson last week in Deals a Startin. I’ll add this. I was in St. Louis when Jackson made his first start, and listening to the media and fans you’d have thought they added Bob Gibson to the staff. Jackson has a good arm, and when locked in he can be a solid option, but it seems like expectations are way out of whack with this guy.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: From June 1-July 19th he allowed three of fewer runs in 10-straight starts. Unfortunately he’s allowed nine runs over his last two outings. His velocity is still down three mph, and moving to the AL isn’t going to help his outlook.

Derrek Lee, Pirates: Lee will replace Lyle Overbay at first, and he has been hot of late hitting .298 with a .906 OPS and 13 RBI over his last 15 games.

Ryan Ludwick, Pirates: Leaving Petco should be a big boost to his offense, but it’s not like he has been killing it all year on the road (.258/.300/.389).

Hunter Pence, Phillies: He’s having a fine year but his OBP isn’t great at .355, his SLG of .468 is only 39th amongst players with 400 plate appearances, and his BABIP is high at .365. Still, can’t fault the Phillies at all with this add though it does tank the value of Domonic Brown who was sent to Triple-A.

Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: I gave my thoughts on Colby last week in Deals a Startin. Let’s say that I like the game, question the head, and wonder if he will ever reach the level that his talent dictates he should. Still, he just might get there in Canada where no one even knows they play baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June30, 2011

(1) Mark Ellis now a Rockie. How does that effect NL-only leagues?

(2) Ty Wigginton on fire for the Rockies.

(3) Josh Johnson shoulder update.

(4) Derek Jeter hopes to return Monday from calf injury.

(5) Erik Bedard to DL, Rich Harden off it.

(6) Chris Davis to get shot with Rangers?

PS – Congratulations to Crissy who won the DraftStreet.com competition last night.

By Ray Flowers

Ray’s Random Musings

photo © 2011 Matthew Straubmuller | more info (via: Wylio)

Daniel Bard has allowed leadoff hitters to bat .300 against him (30 ABs). The rest of the time batters are hitting .133 (98 ABs).

Erik Bedard pitched 81 innings in 2008. He pitched 83 innings in 2009. He didn’t throw a single pitch in 2010. He’s already up to 90 innings this season. Oh, he’s looked great with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.50 K/9 mark, but you’re playing with a lighted charcoal briquette with bare hands, and you’re gonna get burned. I’d recommend pushing hard to deal him. Maybe he holds on all year and has a fantastic season, but there’s no way I’d be counting on that, not with his track record of ill health. Oh by the way, he was placed on the DL about two hours ago with a bad knee. At least it’s not his arm. The Mariners expect him to be back in two weeks.

Carlos Beltran is on pace for a season of .280-22-105-80, pretty amazing actually given his physical  woes. Unfortunately he’s also on pace for a mere six steals. Still, after he hit only 17 homers with 75 RBI and 71 runs the last two years there shouldn’t be a single complaint with this guy.

The last 28 days Brennan Boesch is hitting .380 with six homers, 13 RBI and 21 runs scored. That recent surge puts him on a pace that would lead to a season of .300-20-80-100. Is he that type of hitter? The HR and RBI marks are totally acceptable rates, but the runs and average not so much. Boesch doesn’t strike out a ton, but he also doesn’t walk much as evidenced by his 0.49 BB/K rate that is league average. He also owns a slightly below league average line drive rate of 18.5 percent. Neither of those measure says .300 average. His BABIP is a little high at .329, and though it is a sustainable mark, unless he keeps it up there he’s going to have a hard time hitting .280 let alone .300. Also, not many guys score 100 runs when they have an OBP under .360 (his current mark is .357). Only five guys pulled off that trick last year: Austin Jackson, Derek Jeter, Martin Prado, Brandon Phillips and Carl Crawford.

Cliff Lee is working on a scoreless streak of  32 innings, and he’s the first lefty since 1994 to have three straight shutouts (Randy Johnson). But his success goes deeper than that.

* For the month of June, Lee won all five of his starts.

* For the month of June his ERA was 0.21. No NL pitcher has had a monthly ERA that low since Orel Hershiser in 1998 (0.00 in September). Lee’s 0.21 ERA for the month was also the sixth best mark, minimum 40 innings pitched, in the NL since 1912. That’s kind of a long time.

Wily Mo Pena has three homers in 25 at-bats with the D’backs. He blasted 21 homers in 237 at-bats in the minors. That effort puts him on pace to bash 48 homers in 524 at-bats this season. I’m just saying.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 24, 2011

photo © 2009 David Berkowitz | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Do you expect Dan Uggla to come back to life?
– @EadlRosa

Let me repeat my oft head comment about Uggla, though apparently I haven’t said it enough as people continually send me notes about giving up on Uggla. In each of the last five seasons, the only five seasons he has been in the majors mind you, Uggla has hit 27 homers, had 88 RBI and scored 84 runs. In the history of baseball, as long as they have been playing the game, no second baseman can match that streak. Ever. In fact, no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years. That doesn’t mean that de facto Uggla will get there again this year, it’s merely meant to illustrate his historically excellent consistency. I’m going to trust those five years over 49 games of poor performance in a Braves uniform this season when trying to determining the value of the 31 year old second baseman.

In terms of his current performance, his K-rate has been at least 25 percent each of the past four years, and he’s currently at 21.1 percent. However, he just can’t hit em’ where they ain’t. His current BABIP is .197, and that’s only .098 points below his career mark. He could pull an Aaron Hill, we saw what that meant in 2010 for the Blue Jays’ second baseman, but the odds are strong that Uggla will rebound the rest of the way.

Kevin Youkilis for Ike Davis and Dan Uggla in a 6×6 league with OPS?
– @RyanSchwep

Youkilis was injured an ineffective in April only to break out in May as he’s hit .338 with a 1.027 OPS and 17 RBI in 19 games. That run of games has upped his numbers back into the pantheon of third basemen (.275-8-32-29). Like Uggla, Youkilis is exceedingly consistent as he has hist at least .288 with a .390 OBP in each of the last four seasons. When you toss in his eligibility at first and third base, you have a player who is clearly a difference maker. In addition, because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has posted an OPS of at least .958 each of the past three years, and his mark of .964 from 2008-10 is the best mark in the American League and second in baseball (Albert Pujols, 1.074). To compare Uggla, who I mentioned above, doesn’t possess the ability to hit for an average or to get on base like Youkilis, and the best single season OPS of his career is .877.

Davis is out with an ankle issue. He has resumed some baseball related activities, but he still hasn’t begun running yet (the hope is that he could return late this week). There is always risk adding a player coming back off injury, especially so when that player has all of 652 big league at bats. I’m not going to sit here, and yes I do type these reports sitting and not standing at my homemade bar (this Manhattan is pretty good actually), and say that Davis is overrated, but I think people are a little ahead of themselves in terms of their expectations. Though he’s hitting .302 this year, he did bat just .264 last year. He’s still striking out in a quarter of his at-bats, and yet again has a below average line drive rate (17.0 percent). At that level, it’s pretty tough to posit a continuation of his current .344 BABIP. The power is legit though.

I’d keep Youkilis. He is the best player of the three, and even though I’m a big fan of Uggla’s, there’s just no way he, or Davis for that matter, will be able to match the elite level OPS of Youkilis.

I just traded Neil Walker for Jordan Zimmerman in a keeper league. Is it a good move since I needed pitching help?
– @redskinsp

Walker he been one of the better hitting second baseman in the game so far this year (.276-6-30-28-2). Unfortunately he’s striking out a bit more this season, nearly a quarter of his at-bats, and his ground ball rate is up eight percent this year (44 percent). Neither of those numbers are scary by any means, but both would seem to cap his ability to be an elite option in average or the home run department. Basically, he’s been slightly more effective at going deep this year, thanks to a 40 percent increase in his HR/F ratio, while  pretty much maintaining many of the levels he posted last season. If he is able to hold on to what he has shown over his last 155 big league we’re likely looking at a top-10 player at second base.

Zimmerman is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the Nationals are being careful limiting their prized righties innings when possible. After a slow start to the year in the K department, Zimmerman has been bringing the heat in his last three starts racking up 22 Ks in 18.2 innings. He’s also tossed 4-straight quality starts the last four times he has taken the hill. Jordan has also limited the walks to two or fewer in each of his last eight starts, a great sign since pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery often struggle to locate their pitches. A youngster like Walker, Zimmerman has a 8.10 K/9 an a 3.12 K/BB ratio through 176.2 career innings, and numbers like that lead to a lot of success.

Both players are solid building blocks in a keeper league. While Walker will likely be very good, Zimmerman has a shot at being a top-25 starting pitcher option moving forward. Given your stated need of pitching help, I’d feel completely comfortable in making this deal.

The rest of the way… Erik Bedard or Madison Bumgarner?
– @Lintyfresh85

I’ve said this probably 46 times the past three months – when healthy, Bedard is really, really good. However, as we all know, he spends as much time sipping a pina colada as he does climbing onto the bump. Bedard tossed 81 innings in 2008, 83 in 2009 and zero in 2010. He’s up to 45.2 this season, so you have to ask yourself, how much faith do you have in him taking the ball every five games?

Bumgarner is 1-6 so he’s pitched pretty poorly this season. Wait a second, that isn’t true at all actually. Though he has only one victory, each of the last five times he has taken the hill he has produced a “quality start” leading to a 1.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.50 K/BB ratio.

Let’s compare the two directly. Here are their 2011 numbers.

E. Bedard: 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 1.10 GB/FB
Bumgarner: 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.53 K/9, 2.06 K/BB, 1.68 GB/FB

Both are left-handed.
Both are pitching well of late.
Both pitch in great pitcher’s parks.

Do you want the up and comer in Bumgarner or the slightly more skilled, but infinitely more volatile Bedard?

As much as I love the skills of Bedard I just cannot trust him to make 30 starts, so I’d go with the Giants’ lefty.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.