Mailbag: April 26, 2011

photo © 2010 Phil Roeder | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Hanley Ramirez got traded straight up for Starlin Castro. This is vetoable correct?
– @Dorman06

I hate vetoing deals. The reason is that sometimes a team would benefit from picking up a “lesser” player in a deal. If you need steals maybe it makes sense to trade Justin Upton for Michael Bourn, even if straight up the players aren’t equal. However, deals are never done in a vacuum, so unless the deal is horrifically one-sided the best course of action is usually to just let people stupidly make bad decisions and live with them. Actually, the best course of action to avoid this issue is simply to not allow trades. That way there is no funny business going on, but most people find such leagues to be boring.

In terms of this deal, I’m going to completely reverse course. This is one of those deals that simply must be vetoed. Wind back the clock four weeks. Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall out of the top-5 in any draft, no matter what the format and Castro was lucky if he was being taken in the top-100. In each of the last four seasons Hanley has been one of the top-10 fantasy performers in the game who has averaged a 5×5 line of .319-27-83-111-36. Those numbers are Hanley’s “average” effort the past four years. Even if Castro were to maintain his current pace (.357-1-11-16-3) over 150 games this season he would end up with a 5×5 line of .357-7-75-109-20. Castro will never hit .357, but even if he does he isn’t even on pace to match a “normal” effort from Ramirez.

In this case the deal should clearly be vetoed even if Hanley is currently batting .194 with no homers.

Closers. Pick two to keep and one to shop around – Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero. Thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

The problem with questions like this is the following – almost always the player or players you should keep are the ones that will bring the most value in a deal. Therefore, do you trade the “best” guy because he will bring the most in return or do you trade the inferior guys and get lesser players in return?

Wilson is the arm you have to keep. His 9.82 ERA is a total fluke as he’s had three poor outings. Wilson still has five saves in six chances and a strikeout per inning on the young season. He’s still working his way back to full health after being slowed by a side issue in spring, but you don’t trade the majors saves leader from the past three years (127, five more than K-Rod), unless you get a huge return.

Cordero gets saves, he’s had at least 34 in each of the past four years, but his K-rate continues to plummet. After posting a 12.22 mark in 2007 we’ve seen it dip to 9.98, 7.83, 7.31 and 7.00 this season. Given that he’s walking 4.00 batters per nine this year which would be a 4th straight year of least four, you need to realize that the end is coming. Sooner or later a pitching line like that will catch up to you.

Broxton has struggled. His fastball is three mph down from where it was in 2009 (97.8), and that is a big concern. Even more concerning is his current 6.97 K/9 mark. I have to think that is a sample size thing though – he’s never been below 10.54 per nine in his career. Even more disconcerting is his 6.10 BB/9 mark. Unless you’re Carlos Marmol you cannot have success issuing that many free passes. At the same time Broxton is still generating a solid 1.56 GB/FB mark, and there is no way in the world that batters will continue to square him up this well all year (he’s allowing a 34.3 percent line drive).

Keep Wilson and Broxton. If you tried to trade the Dodger right now you likely wouldn’t get much for him anyway as people would be fixated on his ERA (4.35) and WHIP (1.84).

Should I drop Ervin Santana for Scott Baker?
– @zaktraut

It’s so funny. It’s like people have all of a sudden discovered Baker as I’m literally getting 20 questions a day about him on Twitter. Just to prove that I’m not Johnny Come Lately with Baker, I’d point you to a piece I wrote last year in October titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought in which I suggested that everyone keep an eye on Baker in 2011. Baker has always had the skills to be an elite level performer, but he has never been able to put it all together. Will he be able to this year? That remains to be seen, but it cannot be argued that he is off to a fantastic start (3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 3.00 K/BB ).

Santana has been one of those odd every year performer (look at his win totals the last five years – 16, 7, 16, 8, 17). However, he posted a four year low in his K/9 rate (6.83) last year, continued to give up his fair share of long balls (1.09 per nine) and was hit pretty hard with a 22.1 percent line drive rate. This year he’s upped the K-rate to 7.71 while dropping his walk rate way down to 2.20 per nine, but the outward results are poor (he’s 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA). Clearly he has pitched better than the results this season. Let’s compare the two righties by looking at their career numbers.

S. Baker: 4.29 ERA,, 1.27 WHIP, 7.12 K/9, 3.36 K/BB, 0.76 GB/FB, 1.19 HR/9
Santana: 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.86 GB/FB, 1.15 HR/9

I want Baker even with the career numbers showing the matchup to be a toss up. I’ve said it before. One of these years it’s all going to come together for Baker and when it does, watch out.

Would you drop Matt Thornton or Sean Burnett for Ryan Franklin?
– @JSam85

I’ve written and talked about this many times, and I always say the same thing – give me skills over role and eventually I’ll come out ahead. With the massive changes we’ve already witnessed in the 9th inning this year, I wrote about this situation in The Closer Conundrum, it’s never been more obvious to me that my position is the right one. It may not always result in saves or me winning a league, but in the long run I’ll come out ahead more times than not, especially since we have no idea what managers will do in the 9th inning.

ROLE: Right now the pitcher to own would appear to be Burnett. Drew Storen is coming hard and appears to have pretty much locked down the 9th inning job with the Nationals, but Burnett figures to at least get some work in the 9th. Thornton was so bad early on that he’s likely nowhere near the 9th for the Sox, and with Mitchell Boggs looking strong, I wouldn’t expect to see Franklin closing games any time soon.

SKILLS: You may not want to hear it given his horrible start, but the best pitcher of this group in terms of skills is Thornton, and it’s not even up for an argument. Let’s look at each hurlers numbers since the start of the 2009 season.

Burnett: 7.68 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 6.78 H/9, 10.38 BR/9
Franklin: 5.98 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 7.86 H/9, 10.75 BR/9
Thornton: 11.28 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 7.15 H/9, 10.18 BR/9

Are you going to let 6.2 innings of poor work from Thornton wipe out three fantastic seasons (from 2007-10, amongst hurlers who tossed 200-innings Thornton was 2nd in base runners per nine innings, fourth in K/9, sixth in ERA and ninth in K/BB)? I’m not. I have no idea who will be the most valuable fantasy performer, the answer to that depends totally on whether or not each hurler’s manager allows them to pitch the 9th inning, so give me the pitcher with the best skill set – Thornton, and leave Ryan Franklin alone.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Around the Blogosphere

I’m going to do something I haven’t done in a long while, and that is I’m going to link to a bunch of pieces that I think you might find interesting – similar to what we do with our Blog Roll pieces at Fanball.com and Rototimes.com. With that, here are some of the pieces that have caught my attention of late.

Offseason Moves: AL West – This piece goes over the myriad of moves by the teams in the division including the additions of Ben Sheets, Hideki Matsui, Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley. It also details two players – Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero – that switched teams but stayed in the division.

Team Poll: Oakland A’s — We’ve been reviewing each team as a staff, giving our thoughts on which players are in line to break out, fail etc. The most recent piece focuses on the team from California.

Post-Hype Sleeper: Cameron Maybin — Some of the best options on draft day are those youngsters that didn’t quite live up to the hype in their first go round. Cameron Maybin just might fit that outlook provided that his operated on shoulder is healthy.

On Nathan and Broxton — Ted Carlson does a great job in discussing just what it means to be an effective reliever year after year. Here’s a shock – it’s a lot harder than you might think.

Updated Top 10s — Interested in what one of the best minds in the business thinks about who the top-10 players are at each position. I know what you’re thinking oo, and I’m not referring to myself here.

5 Questions: Chicago Cubs — Our Cardinals blogger has begun his look around the NL Central by starting with the team most figure will represent the biggest roadblock to the playoffs for the team from St. Louis.

Breaking Down: Cabrera/Garko/Gross – I hate to toot my own horn, but you didn’t think I wouldn’t being the braggart I am did you? Per the title, I break down the recent signings of Orlando Cabrera (Reds), Ryan Garko (Mariners) and Gabe Gross (Athletics).

Pick an Ace, Any Ace – How does the Angels’ rotation of Scott Kazmir, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro look to our intrepid Angels writer?

Player Profile: Mark Teahen — The White Sox are truly counting on one of their offseason acquisitions, infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen. He’s never really been a difference maker, but hopes are high that he might finally reach that status in 2010.

Monday Notes on the Rangers — Which players are in the news for the team from the south?

Diamondback Non-Roster Players — The D’backs are bringing 17 non-rostered players to spring training. Have you even heard of any of them before?

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Diagnosis

Tuesday has been yet another day of injury reports, sprinkled with a bit of info about player performance. In what follows, my analysis will fall along those lines as well.

Jose Contreras has hurled 15 scoreless innings at Triple-A since he was sent down to work on things. Just goes to show you how large the gap is between the majors and the minors cause I really don’t think he has turned back the clock 10 years in a mere two weeks.

Mike Fontenot is 1-for-29 of late to drop his average down to .204. So much for him building on a 2008 that included a .304 average, nine home runs and 40 RBI in just 243 ABs. In fact, Fontenot has been out-produced by lightweight Ryan Theriot who has gone deep as many times as Fontenot, five, while producing one more RBI (18) while hitting .294. That’s why they play the game folks, and the bottom line is that even when you have all your ducks in a row, it doesn’t always work out like you would expect it to (Theriot entered the year with seven home runs in 1,264 at-bats).

Vladimir Guerrero is hopeful of returning from his injured pectoral muscle soon, perhaps as early as next Monday. When he returns he will likely be limited to the DH spot, that is if his rehab work goes well this weekend. As for the team’s pitching staff who recently got back John Lackey and Ervin Santana, there is potentially more good news on the way as Kelvim Escobar(shoulder) is nearing his first rehab appearance of the year next week. He hopes to be able to throw upwards of 60 pitches in the outing. He is hoping to return as a starter, but even if the club eventually decides to slot him as a reliever, his return would not only provide an emotional lift to the club, his right arm could also present favorable returns if he can return to unleashing the filthy stuff that has been his calling card.

Noah Lowry will have another surgery, this one ending his 2009 season. Apparently he will have a rib removed in the same type of procedure that Jeremy Bonderman underwent last season (thoracic outlet syndrome). According to Lowry’s agent this condition has essentially gone undiagnosed for about two years, and this procedure should finally fix what ails the lefty hurler after years of failed attempts including other medical procedures. I wish him all the luck in the world, but it remains to be seen if we will ever see him on the field in the majors ever again, the same situation that may have befallen A’s third baseman Eric Chavez who might have to end his career because of a herniated disc in his back as there is concern that any further baseball related damage could hinder his quality off life moving forward.

Carlos Quentin missed a third straight game because of his heel injury on Tuesday. With Brian Anderson back off the DL, could Quentin be headed to it soon?

Joakim Soria threw on Tuesday for the first time since hitting the DL on May 7th. Obviously that means he will not be ready to go when eligible on Saturday as he only threw off of flat ground. Reports are positive and this news still means that he will likely be back by next week, but continue to look for Juan Cruz to be the man they turn to in the ninth inning for the rest of the week. Speaking of Cruz, his 13 to 10 K/BB ratio is awful and well below his normal 1.99 K/BB rate. Why? The main reason is that his K-rate has plummeted from over 12 per nine the past two years to 6.27 this season. He is still throwing as hard as ever (94.1 mph is his average fastball speed), so expect his K-rate to rise no matter what role he fills moving forward.

I said it on the podcast his morning, and I’m feeling even more secure in the statement I made. Joey Votto’s dizziness continues on without an explanation, and it’s looking more and more like a DL stint is coming. He might avoid it, he last played on May 16th, but even if he doesn’t end up on the DL it looks like this week is pretty much shot, not to mention it remains to be seen how he will fair once he returns because it’s not like you can hit a baseball when you are even slightly dizzy.

Windy City Baseball

I ended up discussing a bunch of White Sox player’s in today’s piece (and even a Cubs’ one). Don’t worry if you aren’t a fan of Chicago baseball though as I also made sure to touch on some non-Windy City events as well.

Jose Contreras was sent to the minors after looking pitiful in six starts this season during which time he went 0-5 with a 8.19 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP. He also struck out no one (5.16 K/9) while walking everyone (4.85 BB/9). The only shock here is that he wasn’t removed from the rotation sooner. If you bought in to his hot spring, well, you should have listened to your truly who told you this would happen. By the way, the other washed up returning starting pitcher for club, Bartolo Colon, has been serviceable for those of you in AL-only leagues going 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. Of course, his K/BB is awful 1.92, and his average fastball is just 89 mph (92.5 for his career). I would be worried about the bottom falling out there as well.

Bobby Jenks sent a message to the Rangers’ Ian Kinsler on Sunday when he fired a fastball behind Kinsler. “You don’t want to see anyone getting hurt. My intentions were not to hurt the guy, like I said before, but I was protecting my guys as well.” The White Sox apparently are tired of their hitters being hit as they have been plunked 16 times this season, the fifth highest total in the majors (they have been hit by a pitch 331 times since the start of 2004 while their pitchers have only hit 270 batters). I love Jenks for standing up for his guys, but really, what does it serve to say what he did to the press? The only thing he will likely be serving is a suspension being that he admitted to throwing at Kinsler. That brings up another point – since when did throwing at a guy deserve a suspension? If that was the case back when the game was played by men, how many times would Bob Gibson have been suspended? He may never have pitched a single complete game (he amazingly threw 255 in 528 starts) if today’s rules were in effect when his menacing presence was terrorizing hitters in the 1960′s and 70′s.

Watch out for the Angels who are just half a game behind the Rangers in the AL West. The club sits about in the middle of the back in the pitching categories, but they are about to get all kinds of healthy with John Lackey and Ervin Santana likely to join the club by the end of the week. Playing .533 ball without your two best starters is certainly something. If you add into that mix two of the top-20 starting pitchers in the American League, well, you’ll have to feel pretty good about things if you cheer along with the Rally Monkey and the Angels.

Derrek Lee’s neck injury isn’t career threatening. That was the report out of the Chicago Tribune. Look, any injury to someone’s neck is extremely serious, but was the club really so concerned about Lee and his bulging disc that they thought he might have to hang up his spikes? If so, they sure did a good job of making it sound like he was merely missing a few days to rest things. He should avoid the DL and be back by mid-week according to the latest reports.

Lastings Milledge suffered a broken finger at Triple-A, an injury that will obviously remove the possibility of returning to the bigs in May, not that he deserved to be considered for a promotion anyway. Milledge is hitting only .253 in 79 at-bats as he had failed to go deep once while knocking in only four runners. Lastings did steal six bags but with an OPS of .594 it was clear that he clearly hadn’t taken the demotion as a chance to prove everyone in Washington wrong. Now it looks like a return before the end of June seems unlikely.

J.R. Towles has been sent back to the minors as the Astros are ready to activate Humberto Quintero. Towles hit only .182 with the club this year, but he was only given 11 at-bats behind Ivan Rodriguez. At some point, don’t the ‘Stros need to move this guy? Towles was hitting .344 in Triple-A this year, is just 25 years old, and owns a .302 average and .866 OPS in more than 1,100 minor-league ABs. Certainly someone can find a backup job for a bat like that behind the dish can’t they?

By Ray Flowers