Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News

Wednesday has been a day filled with plenty of news with most of it focused on the men who take the hill. There’s also a bit in here at the end about that rich guy who will patrol the outfield for the Nationals for those of you looking for a hitting fix.

Rich Harden: The flame throwing righty has reportedly agreed to a one year deal for $1.5 million to return to the club that he began his major league career with – the Athletics (there are another $1.5 million available in incentives). The deal will not become official for a couple of days yet as Harden still has to pass a physical – clearly not a given at this point. Early reports suggest that the A’s are looking at Harden as a bullpen option more than a challenger for a starting role, but you have to think they might be tempted to give him a shot at the 5th starters role. Regardless of where he pitches he is a wild card. Coming off a career worst 5.58 ERA and 7.34 K/9 marks – this guy owns career marks of 3.63 and 9.13 – Harden will be the quintessential late game flier. I’ll tell you this. Even with his average fastball sitting at just 90.5 mph last season, I wouldn’t want to face this guy coming out of the pen. Can you imagine batters trying to get their bats on that heater and his amazingly sinking change up? That sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

Cliff Lee Update: The final details of his contract are in. The Phillies will be paying the 32 year old lefty $120 million over five years. There is also a vesting option for $27.5 million (if he doesn’t reach the needed incentives in the deal, he would pickup a $12.5 million buyout meaning the deal comes to at least $135 million over the course of six years). A couple of obvious questions that need to be answered.

Does this signing make the Phillies better? Are you on crack? Of course it does. It not only does that, it makes them World Series favorites.

Does this deal give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball? Without a doubt it does.

Was this a smart deal for the team to enter into? This is a serious question that could play out very badly for the Phillies in the long run.

(1) If history is a guide, this was a terrible decision. This was the sixth $100+ million deal ever awarded to a pitcher. Here are the first five with a grade.

CC Sabathia (7 years, $161 million): So far, so good. An incomplete “A.”

Johan Santana (6 years, $135): He was great for one year and then solid in two. He had shoulder surgery and will likely miss half the year though in 201. An incomplete “B-” that grade could get much, much worse.

Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million): He’s stayed healthy and given the team innings. But all you need to know about his value is the fact that he was left off the playoff roster. An incomplete “D+”

Mike Hampton (8 years, $121 million): In a word – awful. “F.”

Kevin Brown (7 years, $105 million): Continually injured, he pitched well when healthy but for the duration of the deal he was merely average. “C-.”

(2) Does it make any sense to give a pitcher a deal that is this long when he is 32 years old? What this deal leads to is that at 35, 36 and 37 years of age Lee will be making $25 million a year. When he is 38 he will make either $12.5 or $27.5 million (depending on whether or not his option is picked up). If you think that sounds like a good idea I bet you are also the fella who would trade Chase Utley for Aaron Hill if he hit .220 in April.

The bottom line is that this signing gives the Phillies a magnificent chance to win the World Series in 2011, but they could pay a dear price in the long run for that short-term success.

Pitchers on the Market: Fausto Carmona, Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano

Greinke will be the most costly to acquire of this trio, and I touched on his situation a couple of days ago in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

Carmona is being viewed by some clubs as a cheaper fall back option if they aren’t able to get Greinke in a deal. Everyone knows that Carmona is nowhere near as impressive as Greinke, but he also won’t cost near as much to pick up. No matter where he ends up, Fausto just isn’t a very good fantasy option. While he throws an exploding sinker that can lead to wonderful outings, he is also a disaster when it comes to throwing strikes. I’ll give the guy some credit, he did knock his BB/9 mark down to a solid 3.08 last year, but he owns a 3.67 career rate and was over five per nine in 2008 and 2009. Carmona is also far from a strikeout option. In fact, despite throwing 210.1 innings last season, his total of 124 Ks was less than the totals of guys like Kevin Millwood (132) and Kyle Davies (126).

Zambrano is a very intriguing option. The most volcanic personality in the game, Big Z is as capable of throwing a no-hitter as he is likely to vent his childhood frustrations on an unsuspecting Gatorade cooler. The guy is just a flat out mess. At the same time, he rebounded from banishment in late June to allow two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 14 appearances during which time he posted a stellar 1.58 ERA. It likely wouldn’t take a hell of a lot to pry him from the Cubs given that he is due $17.85 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012 and $19.25 million on an option. Clearly if the Cubs want to move him to another club they are going to have to open their wallets big time and pay a large portion of that coin.

Jayson Werth: He was introduced officially at a press conference today, and manager Jim Riggleman mentioned that Werth might be asked to play center field against left-handed pitching. That means a couple of things. First, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina better not buy a house because they aren’t in the club’s daily plans. Second, Michael Morse could end up getting a lot more playing time than some people think in right field. Don’t overlook Morse. In 618 career at-bats he has hit .291 with 21 homers, 88 RBI and 73 runs scored. He could be a wonderful NL-only option this season.

By Ray Flowers

The Curious Case of Trevor Cahill

I admit it, I’m not always right. I’d like to think that more often than not I’ve got a handle on the world of baseball, but every once in a while I just have to throw my arms up and say I have no idea what is going on (i.e. Jose Bautista and his insane run to 40 homers). In the case of the historic excellence of Trevor Cahill I have to admit that not only did I not see it coming, I’m utterly shocked, and that doesn’t happen that often.

Here are the facts.

Cahill is second in the AL in ERA at 2.50.
Cahill is second in the AL in WHIP at 0.98.
Cahill is first in the AL in batting average against at .195.

As if that isn’t enough to knock you off your chair if you have been on a desert island with Yvonne Strahovski for the past four months (the beautiful blonde from CHUCK), how about this little whopper of historical greatness:

Trevor Cahill has made 20-straight starts in which he has thrown at least five innings while never allowing more than six hits.

While that may not sound like much, here is the context that makes that statement utterly amazing. That stretch of 20-straight starts of five innings and six or fewer hits allowed ties Nolan Ryan for the all-time modern day major league record. Think about that. I just said the words ‘all-time’ and ‘Nolan Ryan’ in the same sentence, and then related that statement to the performance of Mr. Cahill. Shocking isn’t a strong enough term to describe my reaction.

I’ll be the first to admit that scouts have long been impressed with the stuff of Cahill who, literally, has a difficult time throwing the ball straight (he gets tremendous movement on this tosses). At the same time, we all know that his current pace is nuts, don’t we?

(1) His current BAA is a joke. His stuff isn’t near strong enough to warrant a sub .200 mark (last season the best mark in baseball was .200 by Clayton Kershaw).

(2) Though he is an excellent ground ball inducer (56 percent of batted balls), there is little to no chance that Cahill will be able to continue to hold batters to a mere 14.4 percent line drive rate. Remember, the big league average is about 20 percent. Even if he substantially betters that league average mark, it’s still decidedly foolish to think he will be able to keep that LD-rate this low.

(3) His BABIP is laughably low. His .212 mark is .064 points below his mark from last season and it’s the best mark in the AL by some .044 points this year (Jeff Niemann). There is no way, none, zip, zilch, nada, that he can sustain that pace.

Does this mean that Cahill will fall flat on his face over the final quarter of the season? Not necessarily. Sometimes players are so locked in that they can outperform their skill level and taunt the gods of logic. At the same time, sooner or later the universe has a way of correcting itself (remember what happened to Fausto Carmona after his magical 2007 season?). Sooner or later Cahill is going to have to pay the Pied Piper – it’s only a matter of when his payment will be due.

By Ray Flowers

Which Pitchers Should You Avoid?

I was having a Twitter discussion today about the Angels’ Joe Saunders, and I said what I always say when asked about him – he just isn’t that good. The other guy pointed out that Saunders is fourth in wins the past two years, and while that’s true, it brought up the point that I always try to make when I talk to people about pitchers – wins are a horrid way to evaluate performance. It’s not 1967 when that’s all people cared about, it’s 2010 and hopefully we are all aware of how useless wins and loses are as a tool to evaluate a pitchers performance (consider Zack Greinke is 0-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while Casey Janssen is 3-0 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP). So what should you look at when it comes to which pitchers you might want to add if they are available or hold on to if they are struggling? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Look for high strikeout pitchers. The floor should be 6.00 per nine, but you really would like to see that number at seven or higher (extreme groundball pitchers can obviously have success with lower rates).

(2) Look for pitchers who keep walks in check. You don’t really want to add anyone with a mark higher than 3.50 per nine innings if you can help it.

(3) Look at pitchers with a K/BB mark of at least 2.00. The higher the better, ideally you’d like to be above 2.50, but be very careful of taking a shot at a guy with a mark under 2.00.

(4) Select pitchers who keep the ball in the ball yard. A HR/9 mark of 1.00 is about big league average.

(5) Power pitchers, who keep the ball on the ground, are the best options. Obviously these are always the ones that go for big bucks on draft day, so at least focus on a hurlers groundball to fly ball ratio (you’ll want it to be at least 1.25).

With those parameters, how do a few of the hotter starting pitchers in baseball this season fair? Here you go.

Mike Pelfrey: 4-0, 0.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
6.58 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 1.46 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.50 G/F
Grade: 3/5
Pelfrey is one of those guys who relies on a sinker and can confound analysis a bit, but at the same time he has never struck out more than 5.57 batters per nine in a season.

Doug Fister: 2-1, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
4.33 K/9, 1.67 BB/9, 2.60 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.48G/F
Grade: 4/5
Fister will have success as long as his pinpoint control lasts. When it vanishes, he is in trouble given his poor K/9 rate and an impossible to hold on to HR/F mark.

Fausto Carmona: 3-0, 2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
4.28 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 1.08 K/BB, 0.33 HR/9, 1.38 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Carmona isn’t a strike out pitcher, he is a groundball inducing machine. Oddly, his G/F ratio is currently at a career worst level (2.49 career), but at least he has cut a full batter off his BB/9 mark from the past two seasons.

Mitch Talbot: 3-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2.39 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, 0.64 K/BB, 0.68 HR/9, 2.42 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Unless he keeps up that G/F rate, one that would land him in the top-10 in baseball this season, the lack of punchouts will sink him.

Dallas Braden: 3-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
5.70 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB, 1.20 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Only his impeccable control keeps him from having a score of 0/5. If his BB/9 rate climbs back up to his career level of 2.90, he’ll be down to 1/5.

Livan Hernandez: 3-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
2.90 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 1.25 K/BB, 0.58 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Livan is awful. I’m not even going to waste any time describing why – you can read that discussion in my Weekly Mailbag piece.

Jon Garland: 2-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
6.43 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 1.33 K/BB, 0.96 HR/9, 1.38G/F
Grade: 3/5
Considering that Garland has never posted a K/9 mark above 5.43 in his 10 previous seasons I feel pretty confident that number will regress in short order, and when it does only Petco Park will keep him from having a grade of 1/5 (it will keep the homers in check).

In the short-run you might be able to get away with a handful of these guys, but sooner or later the percentages will even out, and when they do my bet is that every pitcher on this list will suffer a substantial step back in their performance making them questionable plays in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low, Sell High

Here is a list of eight guys who I think you should look to either add to, or trade from, your fantasy baseball roster on the eve of of the 2010 season. BUY LOW: Nate McLouth, Corey Hart, Mike Aviles, Lance Berkman. SELL HIGH: Fausto Carmona, Jayson Heyward, Troy Tulowitzki, Joe Mauer.

BUY LOW

(1) McLouth – Had a terrible spring, now dealing with hamstring injury.
(2) Hart – Went 20/20 in 2007-08. Slumping, and Brewers might trade him.
(3) Aviles – Has a .300 bat, and not much in his way right now.
(4) Berkman – Likely to miss two weeks with sore knee, but it’s not serious.

SELL HIGH

(1) Carmona – Great spring, but scary K/BB ratio past two years.
(2) Heyward – Anything short of 20/20 with 100 runs seems like it would be a disappointment.
(3) Tulowitzki – I’m concerned about his ability to repeat homers and steals.
(4) Mauer – For more on Mauer click on the link to MLB Predictions- Hitters.

By Ray Flowers

The Wednesday Blahs

Wednesday is kind of a blah day. What happened last weekend is nothing but a memory now, and the plans for the coming weekend are still coming into focus. Of course in the world of baseball there is never a break until the season is completed, so I certainly have a lot of things to keep me occupied until I get the chance to get my groove on this weekend.

What’s the deal with Ronnie Belliard? He has hit .319 since joining the Dodgers (47 ABs), and he has hit .321 over his last 50 appearances. That’s pretty phenomenal production for a guy who hit just .184 over his first 51 games.

Eric Byrnes said that he will be playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic this offseason. “I miss playing baseball,” he said. “The past two years, getting 200 (at-bats), that’s not cutting it. If I can make up for some lost at-bats and get down there and play in a real competitive league, it will be beneficial.” Nicknamed “Captain America” by the faithful in the Dominican, this will be the fifth season he has played there. I wish him all the luck in the world because baseball is a better game when Byrnes and his child-like enthusiasm are flying all over the field.

Don’t worry Fausto Carmona owners, the Indians will leave him in the rotation for the rest of the season (Carmona is 3-11 with a 6.58 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP and a 5.57 BBB.9 mark). And to think, there was actually a chance that the Indians could have gone with a pitcher who could have actually given them a chance to win the game. At least they are loyal.

Bartolo Colon was released by the White Sox on Wednesday, and this could signal the end of the road for the one-time ace. Colon averaged 17 victories a year from 1998-2005, but since 2006 he has only been able to stay healthy long enough to make 48 appearances on his way to earning 14 victories. All told, Colon has won 153 games with a 4.10 ERA in a solid major league career, though we are all left to wonder just how well he could have done if he just dropped some weight and took better care of that body of his.

How good has this Josh Johnson kid been? On Wednesday he held the Cardinals to just one run over six innings to improve his record to 15-4 while dropping his ERA to a terrific 3.01. This was the sixth straight outing in which he didn’t go seven innings, but given that only once in that time he has allowed more than three earned runs, he has still given the Marlins a chance to win every time he has taken the hill. He is now 5.2 innings from his first 200-inning season as well.

Hiroki Kuroda continues to pitch well, something the Dodgers desperately need from a starting rotation that includes an injured Clayton Kershaw (out another week after hurting his non-pitching shoulder running into a wall during batting practice) and a struggling Chad Billingsley (an ERA of six in his last four appearances which has led to the team skipping his next turn in the rotation). Kuroda held the Pirates to but one run over six innings on Wednesday, the tenth straight start in which he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. Moreover, over his last three starts, he has an ERA of 2.84.

The Red Sox-Angels game just got underway. Glancing at the starting lineup every single one of the top-8 batters in the Angels’ lineup were hitting at least .287 and Juan Rivera was the only batter below .297 in that group. Do you think the players on the club make fun of Mike Napoli and his .269 average?

The Giants face the Rockies tonight with Matt Cain on the hill, and with a victory the Giants would move to within 1.5 games of the Rocks. Let’s hope it happens so that we can have a wild finish for the NL Wild Card.

Who is your AL home run leader since June 5th? I could give you 45 guesses and I bet you still wouldn’t come up with the right answer so I’m just going to tell you – it’s David Ortiz who has hit 23 homers in that time to lead the Junior Circuit. His last home run, on Tuesday night against the Angels, was his 270th as a DH, the all-time record (passing Frank Thomas).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag – Which Hurler to Keep?

What to do with players in keeper leagues is one of the more difficult calls to make each season. Do you hold on to a guy who likely won’t help you this year but may be a future all-star in order to pick up that guy that could put you over the top this season? Do you trade your leading veteran slugger for an up and coming hurler with tons of upside? In today’s column I’ll address the question of keepers from two different angles – how do these hurlers grade out for the remainder of 2009 as well as moving forward?

I am in a keeper league, salary not a consideration. How would you rank these 3 pitchers: Fausto Carmona, Clayton Richard, Ian Snell

a) for the remainder of this season
b) as longer term keepers
— Don, Connecticut

I have to compliment Don for looking at this situation in both short and long term, exactly what you should be doing in keeper leagues. Here are my thoughts on each hurler before I grade them out.

Fausto Carmona: Flat out awful. Here is what I see, hopefully you will all agree, quickly, that my analysis is on point. Carmona was 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2007 and that was the worst thing that ever happened to him given that it completely skewed the way that people view him. Talk about the planets aligning. I would be utterly shocked if Carmona ever produced a line remotely close to that one again. Why the dubious point of view? What does the number 1.39 say to you? To me it says plain awful when it’s put in the context of being his K/BB ratio for his career. To refresh your memory we look at 2.00 as the level we want our hurlers to reach (it’s the major league average), and Carmona isn’t even in shouting distance at this point. Moreover, that number has been 0.82 since the start of the 2008 season, and yes math whizzes, that means Carmona hasn’t even been 50 percent of average the past year and two-thirds. I don’t care how much sink you get on a 93 mph fastball you cannot, c-a-n-n-o-t have success in the big leagues with a number like that even with an impressive 2.69 G/F rate in his career.

Clayton Richard: This is a hurler who should clearly benefit from a chance of scenery moving from the move offensive minded AL to the NL. In addition, a move from the ballpark in Chicago to the one in San Diego is akin to trading in your Ford Festiva for Shelby Cobra (those are cars by the way). Richard has upped his K/9 rate this season to 6.82, more than a batter above his rookie mark last season though at the same time he has added a batter and a half to his nine inning walk rate completely negating his strikeout growth. In truth, it’s even worse than that as the struggles with the walk have dumped his K/BB rate down to 1.73. Still, Richard has shown a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground with a ground ball rate of over 49 percent in his brief career. The move to Safeco could really help this area of his game as it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see that Petco Park will help to reduce his HR/F rate of 11 percent a wee bit, and with that his ERA should fall. Richard has also done a very good job of late at limited runners from crossing the plate with five runs allowed over his last four starts (1.65 ERA).

Ian Snell: Awful with the Pirates, Snell asked to be demoted to Triple-A to work on his game while at the same time telling the team he had no interest ever pitching for the Pirates again. Snell went down to the minors and simply dominated like never before posting a 0.96 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.33 K/9 and a 3.62 K/BB mark over 37.1 innings. Snell had a nice first start with the Mariners before imploding in his last outing (three runs, six walks and only four outs). Since the start of last season, a span of 48 starts covering 252.1 innings, Snell owns a 5.06 BB/9 mark, a pathetic 1.35 K/BB mark an ERA of 5.42 and a WHIP of 1.72. Face it, no matter how dominating he looked in the minors, Snell just cannot get big league hitters out on a consistent basis because for some reason he simply cannot control the strike zone at all.

For the Rest of 2009
1- Richard
2- Snell
3- Carmona

For 2010
1- Richard
2- Snell
3- Carmona

Snell has the best stuff of the three, but without more strikes it won’t matter.

Carmona has a sometimes dominating sinking fastball that records copious amounts of grounders, despite all the walks (6.03 per nine this season).

Richard is young, pitches in the best environment in baseball for a home ball yard, and also pitches in the National League.

Add up those facts and I would, at this point, say that Richard is the best bet, at least until the other two hurlers remember that throwing strikes is the name of the game.

By Ray Flowers

Friday Musings

I’m depressed. My Sharks, and yes I’m still claiming them even after the stinker they laid last night, now trail the Ducks 1-0 in their first round series after falling to their rivals from the south 2-0 in Game 1. Look, everyone knows that you can’t win every game, but that doesn’t mean it takes the sting out of things when the inevitable occurs. Still, the way it happened almost made me physically ill. The Sharks, who led the NHL in points (117) as well as posting the best record in the league at home, they lost only five games at the “Tank” all year in regulation (they went 32-5-4), looked awful in an embarrassing shutout loss. They had better bring it in Game 2 on Sunday, and by bring it I mean they had better bring a passion and dedication to sacrifice and lay “it” all on the line, something that they all said they were ready to do this year but barely flashed at all in Game 1. Disappointing.

Joba Chamberlain was awful today needed 93 pitches to make it through only 4.2 innings. Maybe he was drunk. OK, that was tasteless and I want to say I’m sorry, but come on Joba, you’re killing me with these up and down performances. Either bring it or head back to the bullpen. Scratch that. Stay in the rotation. I don’t have much use for my second starting pitcher hurling 98 mph cheese in the 8th inning.

Alex Gordon’s hip surgery was a success and he could be back on the filed shortly after the All-Star break according to initial projections. I can just hear all those people who took my advice and grabbed him to be their starter at third base this season saying something like ‘that’s just dandy.’

Mike Pelfrey will likely be scratched from his next start due to lingering concern over forearm tendonitis. Does anyone in a mixed league care? I’m not ready to predict a Fausto Carmona like fall for Pelfrey this season, but at the same time I really don’t see much of a difference in either guy’s stuff or outlook. Think I’m full of it? Check out the numbers.

Carmona (’07): 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 0.67 HR/9
Pelfrey (’08): 3.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.93 K/9, 1.72 K/BB, 0.54 HR/9

Carmona (’08): 5.44 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.33 K/9, 0.83 K/BB, 0.52 HR/9
Pelfrey (’09): OK, it wouldn’t make any sense to list his numbers after just two starts and 10 IP, but the point is that both players rely on sinkers and their defense, and neither one excites me for fantasy purposes. I see Pelfrey at risk, if this injury issue lingers at all, of having a substantial drop off in his performance from last season.

Chris Perez laid a fat pitch in at the knees right over the plate to Alfonso Soriano in the bottom of the eighth inning. As a result, the Cards went from 7-6 lead to an 8-7 deficit as Soriano deposited the pitch in the bleachers. Give the quickness with which Tony LaRussa has made decisions this year we may never see Perez pitch with the Cardinals every again. That statement is clearly hyperbole, but at the same time this outing likely will mute the rush to the waiver-wire to add the since recalled reliever. Speaking of relievers in this game, that Carlos Marmol kid is flat out filthy. His fastball was “only” registering 94 on the gun in his battle with Ryan Ludwick, but for a guy who has a 20-game hitting streak and also one who blasted two home runs earlier in the day he looked completely overmatched in the at-bat. It was good morning, good afternoon and goodnight for Ludwick, all on fastballs that he missed by plenty. Still don’t really get why the Cubs aren’t using Marmol in the ninth every time the need arises and not just here and there like today (what does Kevin Gregg have on Lou Pinalla?).