Around the Horn: Jan. 21, 2010

* Bengie Molina re-signs with Giants, leaves Mets in trouble.
* Tim Lincecum asks for record $13 million, Giants submit $8 million.
* Felix Hernandez signs deal with Mariners for 5-years, $78 million (average of $15.6 annually).
* Johnny Damon to retire?
* Ben Sheets hits 91-92, throws some curves in 55 pitch outing for scouts.
* Jim Edmonds to return to active duty?
* Paul Lo Duca signs with Rockies.
* Carl Pavano gets $7 million from Twins.
* Dave Bush to get at least $4 million from Brewers.
* Brad Lidge says he is healthy after two surgeries.
* White Sox: Andrew Jones ($500K) says he is in great shape.
* Octavio Dotel close to signing with Pirates, could close.
* Dexter Fowler hires Scott Boras as agent.
* Robinson Tejada signs with Royals for $950K.

By Ray Flowers

Halladay, Lackey, Lee on Move

Huge news today all over the ball field highlighted by three of the top-15 arms in the AL switching rosters while a national icon nicknamed Godzilla also switched his address.

Lackey Joins Red Sox

My thoughts on the John Lackey to Red Sox deal? A great move that gives the club the best top of the rotation in the AL as Lackey will team with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. To read more about the move (a reported 5-year, $85 million deal) and what can be expected from Lackey in 2010 click on the link to Breaking Down: John Lackey.

My Twitter account was blowing up all day with updates on the above deal, as well as those that I’m about to discuss. You can sign up to follow me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Page. Come say hi, it’s really a great source to check in with all day for updated info while I’m busy plowing through feature length articles.

Did you catch the Fantasy Buffet Podcast this morning by the way? I think I’m pretty darn good answering the questions, at least better than running the show and asking them. Ted Carlson joined me on Monday, Kyle Elfrink was unavailable, and the show went well, but I’m clearly more effective at blabbing answers than pushing buttons. Luckily I’ll be returning to my more familiar an effective role on Tuesday. The show is Monday through Friday, 8-9 AM PST, for those of you that want to give it a listen.

Matsui to Angels

I wrote a breakdown of the Hideki Matsui to Angels’ deal that is being widely reported, and it should be posted sometime on Tuesday at Fanball. A quick synopsis follows:

1- Matsui is still a nice bat, though expecting anything more than last year’s .274-28-90 effort will likely lead to disappointment.

2- The move out of Yankee Stadium to Anaheim might not be as negative as you think.

3- The Angels might use the fact that they lost Lackey and only spent $6.5 million on a 1-year deal for Matsui to sign Jason Bay. After all, they have millions left to throw at a player and Bay would look great in the middle of that lineup.

And last but not least, the biggest deal of the day.

Halladay to Jays, Lee to Mariners

This deal has been reported by everyone, but all the details are still a bit foggy and could take another day or two to be ironed out. Here is what we think we know about the 3-way deal.

Phillies receive: Roy Halladay
Mariners receive: Cliff Lee
Blue Jays receive: C Travis D’Arnaud, OF Michael Turner, RHP Phillippe Aumont
(a late report said that Aumont was not in the deal but Kyle Drabek was).

There could be more names added to the deal, we are still trying to lock it down, but it’s a huge deal for the Phillies and Mariners.

So why did the Phillies do this, basically shipping out one top of the rotation ace for another? Here is what we think is the reason: money. Apparently Lee wanted a CC Sabathia-like deal to remain with the Phils, something like 7-years and $160 million. The Phils decided there was no way they would do that. Therefore, they parlayed Lee in the deal to bring in Halladay, who not only is a better pitcher, but one who was willing to sign a more reasonable deal with early reports being that Halladay will sign a 3-year, $60+ million deal with at least one, and possibly two, option years tacked on.

In total, the Phillies upgraded slightly on the hill, kept their payroll at an acceptable level by not giving a massive extension to Lee, and also seemingly held on to their top minor league talent that they were unwilling to move at the trade deadline when they tried unsuccessfully to add Halladay.

As for Lee, he gets to pitch in a nice pitcher’s park in the Northwest, though we’ll have to see if the club is willing to give the soon to be free agent (2010 is his last year under contract) the massive dollar figures he wants to serve as the #2 arm in their rotation behind Felix Hernandez.

All in all this was one hell of a day for the middle of December. I need to take a break now, pull back on some spiked eggnog, and truly reflect on yet another wonderful day at my job.

Cheers.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Starting Pitchers

The following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season. This list represents my top-10 starting pitchers heading into the ’09 campaign. Let this list be reason number 1,976 as to why it makes little sense to draft a starting pitcher early as they are just so volatile. What do I mean? Take a look at the list. The top guy made his fewest starts since 2002. The #5 guy was a huge disappointment. #6? He made all of one start, and #7 pitched his fewest innings since his rookie year in 2002. And it’s not like I chose crazy hurlers for my list. Of the nine Fanball employees who ranked the top-10′s at each position, here is the total of how many times each of those injured pitchers were mentioned.

Johan Santana – nine
Brandon Webb – nine
Jake Peavy – eight

Just goes to show you that taking hitters early in drafts is likely the safer play. Now on to a review of my list.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. CC Sabathia

4. Roy Halladay

5. Cole Hamels

6. Brandon Webb

7. Jake Peavy

8. Dan Haren

9. James Shields

10. Felix Hernandez

Santana won 13 games with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP though he did toss only 166.2 innings his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter in 2003. Reports are that his arm should be 100 percent by opening day 2010.

Lincecum actually improved in his second full season winning his second straight Cy Young. He lowered his ERA by 0.14 down to 2.48, his WHIP by 0.12 (down to 1.05), and held batters to an anemic .206 BAA, .015 points below his ’08 mark. The best thing going – end of story.

Sabathia had a terrific first season in pinstripes giving the Yankees exactly what they paid for. He won 19 games, struck out 197, posted a 3.37 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while eating up 230 innings. A free agent signing who delivered handsomely.

Halladay continues to be a throwback to years gone by. He tossed nine complete games, produced four shutouts, twirled 239 innings and along the way won 17 games for a poor team. He also posted a sub 2.80 ERA for a second straight year, an unheard of occurrence in the AL in this age of offense.

Hamels was terrible if you look only at the results (10-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). However, a deeper look at the numbers says that he was extremely unlucky (a .325 BABIP can be blamed – it was .289 and .270 the previous two years), and therefore he should rebound in 2010.

Webb made that one start and his year was over with a wonky shoulder that required surgery. He is back in the desert on an option year deal with the D’backs in his attempt to reassert himself as a top flight option after 5-straight years over 200-innings.

Peavy finally was moved from San Diego to the White Sox, but his year was marred by an ankle injury and later some issues with his elbow that limited him to a mere 16 starts. He posted 110 Ks and a 1.12 WHIP in 101.2 innings but will likely find success harder to come by in a hitters’ yard in Chicago.

Haren was spectacular at the start of the year (9-5, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP prior to the All-Star game) before pulling his now annual second half fade (5-5, 4.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). Still, no one in the game was disappointed with his final numbers: 14-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 223 Ks in 229.1 innings.

Shields had his worst season in three years seeing his sub four ERA rise to 4.14 while having his WHIP rise to 1.32 (it had been under 1.16 the previous two seasons). Still, he lasted more than 215 innings for a third straight year though he’ll need to reign in the free passes a bit to return to his previous levels.

Hernandez, in retrospect, should have been higher on my list, though I can’t give myself too much grief as I was the only one of the nine staffers who had him ranked in the top-10. All he did was go 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA, 217 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP. Not a bad season for a guy who doesn’t turn 24 until April 2010.

By Ray Flowers

In the News: Rumors

I finally bit the bullet and entered the Twitter world this week as BaseballGuys is now Twitter friendly. If you go to the page you can read all my brilliant one liners for the day. Here are two of my favorites from day one – one sports related, the other not so much.

“Who thought of calling dentists doctors? I can get my jaw jacked up by hitting on a gal at a bar who is there with her b/f for free.”
– I wrote that after having two fillings in my lower right jaw replaced (the old ones cracked). The good news is that I swapped out the silver for some gold. It’s not a platinum grill or anything, but way in the back there I got me some bling.

“Kung Fu Panda a workout fiend. Love the headband.”
– There is a link on the page so you can read the story about how Pablo Sandoval has dedicated himself to getting into a bit better physical shape. Here is a quote from the Panda. “The fans, I love them and want them to know I’ll always be the guy who’s working hard. I know I have to lose weight so I can play this game for a long time.”. It’s pretty crazy to think how good he could be considering (a) he was grossly out of shape last season, and (b) he really has no clue of what he is doing at the dish. After all, Pablo was second in the NL with a .330 batting average and seventh with his .943 OPS despite the issues.

THE RUMOR MILL

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported that the Giants might be in the mix for Johnny Damon since the club doesn’t have enough dough to target high end offensive weapons such as Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Seems to make sense to me. After all, Damon is 36 years old, just the perfect age for a Giants organization that just can’t seem to figure out how to construct an offense.

The Mariners reportedly have some interest in uber-talented yet continually injured Rich Harden. If healthy he could be a top-10 pitcher, but we all know there is no way that happens right? He sure would form a potentially lethal 1-2 punch with Felix Hernandez though.

The rumors are true with Tim Hudson – he did sign a 3-year deal to remain with the Braves. I broke down the deal and his 2010 outlook in Around the Horn. As an aside, you can read the same piece for my thoughts on what will happen to Milton Bradley.

The Royals are looking to move Mike Jacobs. Apparently, when you hit .228 with a .297 OBP teams sour on you pretty quickly. The Royals may also try and move Alberto Callaspo, potentially to the Dodgers for catcher A.J. Ellis. The Royals really don’t have a catcher with both John Buck and Miguel Olivo near certainties to move on (Olivo already had his option declined). In addition the Royals picked up Chris Getz to play second in the recent mark Teahen deal. All of this seems a bit odd though considering that Callaspo hit .300 with 73 RBI last season while not being eligible for arbitration until after next season.

Jason Schmidt will reportedly call it a career. His shoulder just never rebounded to the point where he was able to do anything on the hill. I’ll never forget his two year run in San Fran in 2003 (17-5, 2.34 ERA, 208 K, 0.95 WHIP) and 2004 (18-7, 3.20 ERA, 251 K, 1.08 WHIP). Until I saw Tim Lincecum pitch, I had never witnessed a Giants’ hurler who was as filthy or as potentially lethal as Schmidt.

By Ray Flowers

2009 NL All-Star Team

Who were the best fantasy options in the National League in 2009? There are names that certainly jump to mind, guys like Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez, but there were also a couple of tricky calls as I filled out my ballot for the best that the Senior Circuit had to offer in 2009.

If you want to catch my thoughts on who I filled out my American League team with, click on the link to 2009 AL All-Star Team.

CATCHER:Brian McCann

Whether or not he could see at what he was swinging at (he will undergo another LASIK procedure for his eyes this offseason), McCann made enough loud contact to lead NL catchers in homers (21) and RBI (94) while hitting .281, He also managed to lead all catchers with a .834 OPS. This was the fourth straight year that he has knocked in at least 87 runs.

FIRST BASE:Albert Pujols

It’s not a tough call at all when you are talking about the best right-handed hitter of our generation, and flat out the most dominating offensive weapon at the dish in baseball in 2009 regardless of position. Pujols hit 47 homers, knocked in 135 runs, scored 124 times and even swiped 16 bases. He also finished third in the NL in average (.327), first in OBP (.443) and first in SLG (.658). That pretty much says it all.

SECOND BASE:Chase Utley

Though his average slumped to .282, Utley was one of just two second sackers in the NL who went 20/20 (the other was Brandon Phillips) as he socked 31 dingers while swiping a career best 23 bags. Utley also crossed home plate 112 times while knocking in 93 on his way to while posting a .905 OPS. That’s a hell of a season no matter where you play defense.

THIRD BASE:Mark Reynolds

I was this close to going with Pablo Sandoval. After all, the Kung Fu Panda bettered Reynolds in AVG (.330 to .260), OBP (.387 to .349), SLG (.556 to .543) and OPS (.934 to .892). Still, Reynolds went 40/20 while scoring 98 runs and knocking in 102, so he won out in the end.

SHORTSTOP:Hanley Ramirez

There is no debate here whatsoever. Hanley hit a league leading .342, socked 24 big flies, knocked in 106 runs, scored 101 of his own and swiped 27 bags as he posted a .954 OPS. No one, other than Troy Tulowitzki (.297-32-92-101-20), was even considered.

OUTFIELD:Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth

Braun hit .320 and led all NL outfielders with 114 RBI and 113 runs. Kemp went 20/20 while hitting .297 with 101 RBI and 97 runs. Werth also went 20/20 as he hit .268 with 36 homers with 99 RBI and 98 runs. Michael Bourne, an extremely unlikely name, almost made the cut with his 61 steals, a .285 average and 97 runs scored.

STARTING PITCHER:Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter

That’s the order these top-3 should be ranked in as well, a fact I discussed previously in The NL Cy Young Race .

RELIEF PITCHER:Jonathan Broxton

Really, is there any doubt here? Sure Heath Bell (42), Francisco Cordero (39), Ryan Franklin (38), Brian Wilson (38) and Trevor Hoffman (37) each had more than Broxton’s 36 saves, but Broxton led the group with seven victories while his 0.96 WHIP was third. However, it’s the 114 Ks that set him apart – no on else in the aforementioned group recorded even 85 punchouts.

By Ray Flowers

2009 AL All-Star Team

With the baseball regular season wrapped up, I thought I would spend a few minutes detailing for you the 2009 Fantasy All-Star Team for the American League. It’s certainly not an easy call naming just a handful of guys, I’m sure some of you will disagree with some of my choices, but here is my best effort to give you the names of the best guys the Junior Circuit had to offer.

CATCHER: Joe Mauer

Duh. When you lead the league in average (.365), OBP (.444) and SLG (.587) there is nothing this guy didn’t do in 2009.

FIRST BASE: Mark Teixeira

This was a really close race between Tex and Miguel Cabrera, but the Yankees’ slugger pulled just slightly ahead.

Teixeira: .292/.383/.565 with 39 homers, 122 RBI and 103 runs
Cabrera: .324/.396/.547 with 34 homers, 103 RBI and 96 runs

SECOND BASE:Ben Zobrist

While it pains me to pass on Robinson Cano (.320-25-85-103-5) and Aaron Hill (.289-36-108-103-6), I’m going to go with Zobrist who played 91 games at second base. Zobrist hit a strong .297, flashed a lot of power (27 homers, 91 RBI) and stole more bases than the other two combined (17).

THIRD BASE:Evan Longoria

He led the position with 33 homers and 113 RBI while coming in second in runs (100). Despite all that he hit 20 homers with only 58 RBI over his last 106 games. Chone Figgins was a hell of a backup option (.298-5-54-114-42).

SHORTSTOP:Derek Jeter

The Yankees’ captain led his position in average (.334) and runs (107) while at the same time hitting 18 homers with 66 RBI and 30 steals making this a rather easy call. Jason Bartlett might have caught him if he had stayed healthy for more than 137 games (.320-14-66-90-30).

OUTFIELD:Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Bobby Abreu

Ellsbury led baseball with 70 steals. Crawford managed to swipe 60 bags while hitting 15 homers and, knocking in 96 runs – all the while hitting .305. Abreu batted .293 with 103 RBI, 96 runs and 30 steals of his own. Tough to leave off Jason Bay (.267-36-119-103-13) and Adam Lind (.305-35-114-93-1), but their all-around games left them just on the outside.

STARTING PITCHER:Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez

I already broke down this battle in a previous piece titled The AL Cy Young Race .

RELIEF PITCHER:Joe Nathan

I’m skipping over the league leader in saves (Brian Fuentes had 48) as well as the man who is widely regarded as the best closer of all-time (Mariano Rivera) to go with the Twins’ hurler. Why? Nathan had 47 saves, a 2.10 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 89 Ks on the year while limiting batters to a .171 BAA, that’s why.

By Ray Flowes

The AL Cy Young Race

Yesterday I tackled the NL Cy Young Race, so for the purpose of symmetry it only made sense that I would address the AL situation. Being someone who likes a completed circle as much as the next guy, here is my take on the Junior Circuit’s race for the top pitcher of the year award.

While there were three men up for the award in the NL, I see a field of five men vying for the award this season in the AL. I’ll give each guys numbers and then add a few thoughts why the are deserving, and not deserving, of the award.

Zack Greinke
16-8, 2.16 ERA, 242 K 1.07 WHIP in 229.1 IP
Reasons for: Led the AL In ERA and WHIP while finishing second in Ks, fifth in IP and second in batting average against (.230). Also posted a tremendous 4.75 K/BB mark. He also showed an amazing ability to remain consistent posting virtually identical numbers before (2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and after (2.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) the All-Star game.

Reasons against: He won only 16 games for a team that won only 65 contests.

Roy Halladay
17-10, 2.79 ERA, 208 K, 1.13 WHIP in 239 IP
Reasons for: Third in the league in ERA and second in WHIP. Halladay was also second in innings (one behind Verlander), though he still led the circuit in complete games (nine) and shutouts (four). That total of CGs is more than the total of seven posted by Verlander, Sabathia and Hernandez. He had a hiccup in August (2-4, 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) but was great in September (4-2, 1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).

Reasons against: His team wasn’t as bad as Greinke’s Royals, but the Jays won just 75 games. Plus, as good as his numbers were, there were others who were better in almost all categories except for CGs.

Felix Hernandez
19-5, 2.49 ERA, 217 K, 1.14 WHIP in 238.2 IP
Reasons for: Tied for the league lead with 19 victories and finished third in innings pitched. Pretty quietly he also came in second in ERA, third in WHIP and fourth in strikeouts while leading the league with a .227 BAA. Was also fantastic in both the first (9-3, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and second (10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) half.

Reasons against: No one ever sees him pitch since he is on the Mariners. Will he be punished because his team was barely better than average (85 victories) and because people on the east coast rarely stay up late enough to watch him pitch?

CC Sabathia
19-8, 3.37 ERA, 197 K, 1.15 WHIP in 230 IP
Reasons for: Pitches for the Yankees and lead the league with 19 victories. Third in the league in BAA (.232), fourth in ERA, fourth in WHIP and seventh in strikeouts.

Reasons against: Sure he led the league in victories and gave the Yankees all they hoped for when they back up the money truck, but his numbers, other than the wins, just don’t measure up to the others.

Justin Verlander
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 269 K, 1.18 WHIP in 240 IP
Reasons for: Led the majors with 269 Ks while his innings pitched total also paced all of baseball. He was also very effective in both the first (10 wins, 3.39 ERA, 1.19 WHP) and second half (nine wins, 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) showing season long dominance.

Reasons against: Had a great bounce back season and no one was more dominating, but at the same time his ratios were a bit behind the others.

So how do I rank these guys? Just like in the NL, I think the choice is obvious.

5. Sabathia – Too much attention given to wins and being a Yankee.
4. Verlander – Ks and innings are great, but not good enough.
3. Halladay – He was a lot better than most give him credit for.
2. Hernandez – In many other years he would be the choice.
1. Greinke – The most dominating hurler in the league, period.

By Ray Flowers

Greinke for Cy

I’m sure I will address this issue in more depth as we move forward, perhaps in an even longer piece if the people who vote on the end of the year awards vote as I fear that they will. But the bottom line, no matter how you break this thing down, the answer is always the same: there is only one option for the AL Cy Young award, and his name is Zack Greinke of the Royals.

Here is what I know, the irrefutable data that we have to review.

(1) Greinke leads the AL in ERA at 2.14. In fact, he leads baseball with that mark (Tim Lincecum leads the NL at 2.30).

Since 2000, do you know how many AL hurlers have produced an ERA below 2.20? Try one, and that was Pedro Martinez in 2000 when he posted a 1.74 ERA in one of the greatest performances in the modern era. Moreover, since 1980 only two AL hurlers who qualified for the ERA crown have posted a better ERA, Pedro (he also had a 2.07 marl in 1999) and Roger Clemens (1.93 in 1990, 2.05 in 1997).

(2) Greinke leads the AL with a 1.06 WHIP. CC Sabathia is second with a 1.13 mark.

(3) Greinke is second in the AL with 224 Ks, in just 210.1 innings mind you, good for a 9.58 K/9 mark (Justin Verlander leads the way with a total of 239 punchouts).

(4) Greinke is third in the AL in innings pitched with those 210.1 innings (Roy Halladay has tossed 214 innings, Sabathia 213.1).

(5) Greinke has tossed six complete games. Only one other AL hurler has thrown more than four, and that is the league leader Roy Halladay who has tossed seven.

(6) Only four times in his 30 trips to the hill has Greinke failed to last six innings in an outing. Think about that. Eighty-seven percent of the time when he has taken the hill he has gone at least six innings. The four times he failed to he still pitched five innings. Moreover, Greinke has tossed 24 quality starts, the second best mark in the AL behind Felix Hernandez.

So to review, Greinke is first in ERA and WHIP, second in strikeouts, third in innings, second in complete games and second in quality starts. And you think someone else deserves to be the AL Cy Young winner?

As I started with off the top, hopefully the guys that vote for the award don’t say ‘yeah, that’s great, but he only has 14 victories’ and vote for someone else. At least it doesn’t look like anyone is going to hit the 20 victory plateau and that should help. Newsflash guys, wins are a horrific way to judge a pitchers effort. I can’t even believe I still have to say that, but some people still don’t seem to get it.

How do I handicap the race? Here are my top-5 with a couple of weeks left.

5 – Roy Halladay. If not for his struggles in August (2-4, 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) he would likely be vying for the second spot.

4 – CC Sabathia. He leads the league in wins (17) while posting a tremendous set of overall numbers: 3.42 ERA, 178 Ks, 1.13 WHIP in 213.1 innings.

3 – Justin Verlander. A bit more dominating than Sabathia with his league leading 239 Ks, Verlander also has a slightly better ERA (3.34) while posting a strong WHIP (1.17).

2 – Felix Hernandez. Another unsung hero. Hernandez is second in the league with an ERA of 2.52, fourth in K (193), fifth in WHIP (1.15) and fifth in innings pitched (207.1).

1 – Zack Greinke. You read about why this guy should be the clear cut winner above despite having “only” 14 wins.

One last note. ESPN has a tool called the Cy Predictor, and while I frequently disagree with things that are spoken or written about at ESPN, I have to admit that it looks like they got it right this time as Greinke leads their list as well.

By Ray Flowers