Early Season Standouts

It’s early and I continue to preach patience in the fantasy baseball game. Hopefully you’re able to heed that advice. Whether you’ve made one move or 11 thus far is irrelevant though to what follows in this piece. I’m just gonna randomly touch on some players that have stood out to me in the early going, so here goes.

Chris Denorfia is a 4th outfielder who doesn’t play every day, but boy can he hit when called upon. Chris is hitting .395 in 38 at-bats this season and dating back to the start of last season he has hit .303 with a .357 OBP over 386 at-bats. He doesn’t have a ton of pop, 11 homers in that time, but he also has a sneaky 15 steals. He’s a great option in NL-only leagues.

Doug Fister improved to 3-0 Tuesday as he lowered his ERA to 2.77 (he also owns a WHIP of 1.10). Overlooked because of his flashy teammates and lack of elite numbers, some have neglected to note that Fister has been very impressive as a Tiger, and I’m not giving him props cause I have nothing else to do. Through 252 innings with the Tigers Fister is 21-11, has a 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Oh, and that 4.48 K/BB ratio is over the top good. When will he get the respect he deserves Detroit? Isn’t R E S P E C T by Aretha Franklin, one of those that made Detroit into Motown, a song that you should all be singing?

Jedd Gyorko is expected to remain the starter at second even with Chase Headley returning to action. Alex Amarista is lurking if Gyorko continues to struggle, so the question becomes will the rookie continue to struggle or will the Padres eventally turn to Amarista (don’t forget about Logan Forsythe either as he is working his way back from injury)? Jedd has flashed his solid plate discipline, his 0.73 BB/K ratio is proof of that, and he’s still getting on base at a better than league average rate with a .339 OBP even though he’s hitting .240. Still, he’s yet to go deep in 50 at-bats so many are likely disappointed with his effort.

Matt Kemp has never been at a lower place than he is right now. Kemp is hitting .185 with 17 Ks and no homers in 14 games. You know what I say? Buy that guy on the cheap. A breakout is, without question, coming.

Victor Martinez had three hits Tuesday to push his average up to .200. The guy is a .302 career hitter who has hit at least .302 his last three seasons. V-Mart will hit, jujst give him time. Remember, he missed all of last season with that knee injury and it takes some time to get back in the groove. Buy him on the cheap if you can.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Jordan Pacheco hit .309 last year. He has hit .306 for his career. He’s batting .304 this season. It’s only 582 at-bats in total for the guy, but I think it’s safe to say that he is one of the better depth plays in NL-only leagues. If he ever got full-time work…

Fernando Rodney had 48 saves last year with a historic 0.60 ERA. There’s no chance he’s gonna repeat that. I know, way to go out on a limb. So far he’s allowed five hits and walked a batter while getting just eight outs leading to a 10.13 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. It’s far too early to panic, especially after his great WBC, but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Pablo Sandoval is fat. Pablo Sandoval is loveable. Pablo Sandoval can hit. Through 13 games he is batting .320 with 14 RBIs. He’s also struck out only three times on the year.

Mike Trout is a player I’ve written extensively about. You all know my thoughts on him. If we allow that he will maintain his current pace over 150 games he would produce the following 5×5 line: .300-11-54-86-11. Obviously even I think he will do much better than that. However, I think it’s fair to be concerned that he has attempted only one steal in 14 games after running 54 times in 139 games last season.

Barry Zito… told you so. Zito was lit up for nine runs while recording eight outs Tuesday against the Brewers. That horrific outing leaves him with a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, numbers that aren’t that far off his 4.15 and 1.39 marks of last season.

By Ray Flowers

Winners and Losers

  The 2012 season was quite the year. We saw a Triple Crown winner, Oakland stun the Rangers, and Lew Ford make a return from the baseball dead. The fantasy world was no stranger to shocks and surprises this year either. Like no other year in recent memory, the preseason rankings were flipped on their head. Many players greatly exceeded their draft day expectations, while just as many flopped. Here are the three players that disappointed the most in 2012 and the three players that gave their fantasy owners the most bang for their buck.

Disappointments

Adrian Gonzalez drew the ire of each and every one of his fantasy owners this season. He posted only 18 home runs and 108 runs batted in over the course of his disappointing 2012 season. A consensus second round pick or better this spring, Gonzalez failed to live up to his billing and even switched leagues mid-season, much to the chagrin of his AL-only owners. While he was fortunate enough to escape the sinking ship in Boston, he more than likely capsized the season of those who drafted him. Despite the fact that he added outfield eligibility in many leagues and still managed to hit .299, he was unquestionably one of the biggest busts of the 2012 season.

After years of consistent power production, Mike Napoli added batting average to his repertoire in 2011. Coming off a season in which he hit .320, Napoli was among the first catchers off the board this spring. However, if you invested in Mr. Napoli this season you undoubtedly were none too pleased with his efforts. Despite hitting in a potent Rangers lineup, he was only able to post a .227 batting average and 56 runs batted in. Couple this with the comparisons to Adrian Beltre (.321-36-102-95) and Josh Hamilton’s (.285-4-128-103) outstanding seasons and it makes his performance look even worse.

Nobody has fallen from grace quite as quickly as Tim Lincecum. After the previous four seasons in which he recorded 62 wins, well over 200 strikeouts each season, and a pair of NL Cy Young Awards, Lincecum’s 2012 season was an absolute disaster. How bad was it? He finished dead last in the NL in ERA (5.18) and WHIP (1.47) among qualifying pitchers and recorded only 10 wins, the fewest since his rookie campaign. Some have blamed a dip in his velocity for his poor results while others blame it on his unorthodox mechanics. One thing that is undeniable, however, is that The Freak did not return his draft day value at all.

Successes

Chances are if you drafted Mike Trout, you won your league in 2012. Arguably the best player in the game already, Trout posted an unprecedented rookie campaign and is a legit challenger for the AL MVP Award. While Trout was mostly an afterthought on draft day, those who remembered the name were rewarded beyond their wildest dreams as he posted a .326 batting average, 30 homers, and an AL leading 129 runs and 49 stolen bases. As good as he was in 2012, he may only be scratching the surface. Though he will mostly likely miss out on the 2012 MVP award, he almost certainly has one coming in his future.

R.A. Dickey was the story of the season in Major League Baseball. Ranked outside the top-50 starting pitchers coming into the season, all Dickey did was lead the National League in strikeouts (230) and record 20 wins. He pitched three shutouts on his way to the number one rank among fantasy pitchers in 2012 in standard scoring. While there are certainly questions about the sustainability of his success, his ability to overcome personal demons and career journeyman status in 2012 is nothing short of incredible.

This is going to be a tough read for Tigers and Angels fans. While those clubs endured issues in the back end of their bullpens, their former stopper Fernando Rodney, enjoyed a remarkable season. Kyle Farnsworth entered 2012 as the closer for Tampa but a spring injury to the big fella opened a door for Rodney, a door that he slammed shut time after time. After only one year with more than 14 saves in his career, Rodney recorded 48 in 2012 with an ERA under one. He ended the season as the number one reliever and was truly dominant all season long. Rodney was probably not drafted in most leagues, making him the best relief value of the season.

Written By Jordan Hall

To Sum Up

The 2012 regular season is over. Special congratulations should be handed out to Miguel Cabrera for winning the Triple Crown, and to the Orioles who made the playoffs winning 93 games a year after they lost — 93 games. To celebrate the end of the regular season I thought I would list some of my favorite tweets of the last 24 hours. You are all following the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, right? If you are this will seem a bit redundant, but it’s still nice to have all the tweets in one spot. Don’t make me come looking for you in the offseason. Sign up. It’s free, hopefully entertaining, an always informative.

@BaseballGuys Will Miguel Cabrera win AL MVP? 5 times a player has won TC and not been MVP: Williams (’42, ’47), Gehrig (’34), Klein (’33) & Hornsby (’22)

@MLBStatoftheDay Since the start of play on June 4, the @Athletics own a 70-37 record – the best in @MLB.

@MLBStatoftheDay Craig Kimbrel’s 0.654 WHIP is 3rd lowest in history for a pitcher with at least 50 IP, behind Dennis Eckersley’s 0.607 in ’89 & 0.614 in ’90

@MLBStatoftheDay Chase Headley is first @Padres player since Dave Winfield in 1979 to finish the season as the NL leader in RBI.

@ESPNStatsInfo Adam Dunn struck out 222 times this yr, the most in AL history and 2nd-most in MLB history (Mark Reynolds, 223 in 2009).

@ESPNStatsInfo Fernando Rodney posted an 0.60 ERA this season, the lowest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 50 IP.

@ESPNStatsInfo Cliff Lee is the 1st pitcher in the Modern Era (since 1900) to strikeout 200 batters and have 6 or fewer wins in a season.

@Jonathan_Gantt Best pitching staff ever to not make playoffs? 2012 Rays led @MLB in ERA (3.19) and opp. avg. (.228) and led AL with 1,383 Ks.

@MikeDiGiovanna Torii Hunter pulled after two ABs, closes year with .313 average, oldest player since 1957 to hit .300 first the first time.

@STATS_MLB Curtis Granderson is the fifth Yankees outfielder to hit at least 42 home runs, joining Maris, Ruth, Mantle and DiMaggio.

@beckjason In 5 seasons of AL ball, Miguel Cabrera now owns back-to-back batting titles, 2 home run crowns and 2 RBI titles.

@Haudricourt Aramis Ramirez finishes with .300 average, 50 doubles, 27 HRs 105 RBI. Not to bad as Prince Fielder’s replacement.

@richardjustice The Athletics used 16 players in clinching the AL West. GM Billy Beane acquired 9 of the 16 in the last 10 months.

@SBerthiaumeESPN Athletics join ’06 Twins, ’51 Giants as only teams whose only day alone in 1st place was the last day of the season.

@susanslusser Athletics 1st in history to win a division or pennant when trailing by 5 games or more w/ no more than 10 games left.

@PeteAbe $103 million later, Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched 668.1 innings in 6 years for the RedSox with a 4.52 ERA.

@ESPNStatsInfo Orioles are now 29-9 in one-run games. According to Elias, that’s the best win pct since 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms (14-4)

In the coming days I will start to break down players as we start the inevitable process of looking toward the 2013 season. I will also review how my teams did this year, and let’s just say I gave better advice this year to others than myself. With that I hope that everyone had a successful fantasy season in 2012. Enjoy it. Soon enough it will be time to start focusing on what lies ahead in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Monday’s Heroes

I was watching Captain America Saturday night (and don’t worry, I finished at 10 PM leaving me plenty of time to roll out an embarrass myself at the local tavern. Mission accomplished). I gotta say that Chris Evans played the role well, but I’m also concerned that he invaded the comic universe twice since he also played Johnny Storm, aka the Human Torch, in both the Fantastic 4 films. Shouldn’t a fella be limited to one set of tights? Oh, and that Haley Atwell, how amazing did she look in that red dress?

Ryan Braun has reached 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored in each of the past four seasons (including this one). Braun has scored at least 90-runs in each of his six seasons. Braun has recorded 95 RBIs in each of his six seasons. Braun has also hit at least 32 homers in five of six seasons as well. So, to sum up, the worst numbers that Braun has ever posted are 25 homers, 97 RBIs, 91 runs and 14 steals. Those are his worst numbers. Damn impressive.

Adrian Gonzalez had two homers Sunday night. Normally that wouldn’t stand out in a such a way that I would feel like I had to mention it, but we aren’t dealing with a normal situation with AGone. Why? After hitting a homer in his first at-bat with the Dodgers, Gonzalez then went 105 at-bats without hitting his next long ball. The lack of power has been a season long issue with Adrian who has 18 homers on the year. Take a look at his decline in the homer column the past few years – 40, 31, 27 and then the 18 this year. One positive is that his GB/FB, which was out of control last year at 1.45, is back where it should be at 1.13 (career 1.10). On the downside his HR/F rate has been in hiding like Punxsutawney Phil. A career 16.1 percent mark in the HR/F column was virtually replicated the past two years as Gonzalez had identical marks of 16.4 percent. This year that number has caved to 10.1 percent. That number should rebound in 2012, even if Dodger Stadium isn’t exactly a homer haven (the park is slightly above average this year with a 1.059 HR mark according to Park Factors).

Wandy Rodriguez welcome to consistency town. Oh he’s been far from consistent this year alternating patches of dominance with an inability to consistently get batters out, but at least he’s bringing it as the season wears down (4-1, 2.58 ERA over his last seven starts). So why do I use the the term “consistent?” He has 11 wins, the same total he has reached each of the last two years. He has a 3.76 ERA. His mark the last two years is 3.53. His WHIP this year is 1.28. His mark has been between 1.24 and 1.32 each year from 2007-11. His GB/FB ratio is 1.52. The past two years it’s been in the low 1.40′s. Hey, it’s not a great skills set, especially since his K/9 rate is down to 5.99, light years from the 7.78 or better mark he has posted the last five years, but he’s still a pretty darn stable option on the bump if you’re willing to go through the up and downs. Seems like many at Fleaflicker aren’t willing to put up with it.

Fernando Rodney has a 0.64 ERA in 70.1 innings. Two things. First, that ERA is more than three full runs below his career 3.78 mark. He will also finish the year with an ERA under 4.24 for the first time in  six years. Think about that. If you multiply his current ERA by SEVEN you would end up with a 4.48 ERA. His ERA the last five is 4.42. I’m speechless, and that never happens. Second, only one pitcher who has ever lived has thrown 70-innings in a season while posting a lower mark and that was Dennis Eckersley who had a 0.61 mark in 1990 for the Athletics.

Huston Street is back in action for the Padres. Street picked up a save Sunday, his 22nd of the season, he hasn’t blown even one chance this year, even though it was a bit bumpy. That’s totally beyond the point though. Street is sporting a 5-year best with his 10.95 K/9 mark, and his ERA is a career best at 0.97, two full runs below his 2.95 career mark. However, the truly astounding thing is that WHIP which is, wait for it, 0.59. That is not a misprint. In 37 innings Street has allowed 10 walks and just 12 hits. Amazing.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – 2nd Half Pitchers

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some key pitchers heading into the 2nd half and their predictions for them.

Chris Sale, James McDonald, Chris Capuano, Fernando Rodney

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO

Around the Horn: July10, 2012

FIRST HALF SURPRISES

(1) Mike Trout most valuable players since call up.

(2) R.A. Dickey #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball.

(3) Edwin Encarnacion living up to expectations.

(4) Melky Cabrera excelling for Giants.

(5) Jason Kipnis 20/30 threat.

(6) Ian Desmond the top SS in fantasy.

(7) Jake Peavy and Johan Santana putting injury woes behind them?

(8) Lance Lynn has been great, but bullpen in future?

(9) Fernando Rodney best RP in game?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 12, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

*Note: The following article is filled with plenty of questions that might seem knee jerk and laughable to you. Trust me though, these aren’t the only questions I’ve received along these lines. It’s like there is an epidemic of itchy trigger fingers in the world of fantasy baseball right now. Before proceeding to read my answers to today’s questions, I’d suggest that all of you take a moment to read Panic In the Streets.

A guy dropped Josh Johnson 2nite…
– @Gregor21

It’s been two starts covering 9.2 innings. If you were going to draft Johnson in the first place how on earth could you bail on him after two starts – when he’s healthy? The key with Johnson will be his health. If he can take the ball 30 times he’ll be a strong option – period. The only real issue with Johnson is his track record of ill health. The guy owns a 3.05 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and an 8.23 K/9 mark for his career. I’ll trust 735 innings over a poor 9.2 to start the 2012 season, won’t you?

Who is next in line for saves if Joe Nathan tanks?
– @Steverland

I’ll admit to understanding this question, though I’m still not a fan. Closers can lose their jobs much quicker than starters, and with roughly a third of all the big league teams making some type of change in the 9th inning versus what their plans were two months ago, I totally understand the trepidation anyone would have if they see one of their guys struggling in the 9th inning. At the same time, we’re talking about four innings with Nathan. F-O-U-R. In his first three of his outings of the year he allowed one hit, no walks, and one run. Sure he gave up three runs in his last outing, but he’s still sporting five Ks and no walks through four innings. Hell, Mariano Rivera gave up two runs while recording only a single out in his first trip to the hill this season. The Rangers manager, Ron Washington, said that he will give Nathan Thursday off to collect himself, but he also emphatically stated that Nathan is still his closer. Believe him. If I had to chose a backup option, I’d be thinking Mike Adams.

Should I drop Kenley Jansen for Fernando Rodney? No other current closers available on wire.
– @TheSchwan

This question is prompted by two things. (1) The inequitable way we reward relievers in the the fantasy game. (2) Worrying too much about right now and not enough about the next 150 games.

(1) We reward saves in the fantasy game. Therefore, any time a change is made in the 9th inning a virtual stampede occurs. No one pays any attention to the relievers and tries to decide if the pitcher is any good. All we care about is getting the saves. It’s why I’ve long championed changing saves to Solds in the fantasy game (Solds = saves+holds). If we used Solds we’d be more worried about rostering the better pitcher than we are about being consumed with adding the guy who is currently holding down the role of closer.

(2) Through a week of the season, Rodney has three saves and has looked solid whereas Jansen has done the same thing – albeit without the saves. As a result, Rodney’s current value in the fantasy game is higher despite the fact that he isn’t a better pitcher. In my book, especially this early in a season where I’m not desperate to chase saves, I’m going skills over role. That means I want Jansen. Think I’m crazy do you? Let’s compare some career numbers with the two hurlers.

Jansen: 15.23 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 3.54 K/BB, 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .151 BAA
Rodney: 8.20 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 1.69 K/BB, 4.26 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .242 BAA

Are you seeing what I’m seeing? Jansen betters Rodney in every category, and five of the six by a massive amount. You can roster Rodney and hope he some doesn’t revert the pitcher he has always been, but my money is on Joe Maddon realizing, sooner rather than later, that the last time Rodney was a better than average big league hurler was 2007.

I can’t keep Stephen Strasburg at the end of this year. Would you trade him for Tim Lincecum straight up?
– @SubtleStatement

This is the most reasonable question I received in the last day about Lincecum who went out and laid another egg in his second start of the season. I’m utterly amazed at how quickly people are considering bailing on Lincecum. Consider the following. (1) Lincecum has made 4-straight All-Star teams. (2) Lincecum has two two Cy Young Awards in four seasons. (3) Lincecum has never finished outside the top-10 in Cy Young Voting in four full seasons. (4) He’s the only pitcher in baseball with at least 220 Ks each of the past four seasons. No other pitcher has more than two 220 K seasons the past four years (Jon Lester and Felix Hernandez). (5) Even with his struggles this year he has 10 Ks in just 7.2 innings, and with only three walks still has a 3.33 K/BB ratio which is better than his career mark of 2.98. (6) Lincecum has done this before – struggled mightily I mean. In 2010 he went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in the month of August. He rebounded to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.

I would do this deal. It’s quite possible that Strasburg will better The Freak in both ERA and WHIP, but with the potential of 50 or more innings from Lincecum, remember the Nationals have set an innings pitched limit with Strasburg of 160, I’d take the Giants ace.

How patient should one be with Brandon Belt situation?
– @jfeiger

Great question. I’ve been on record for months now telling everyone that I didn’t see how Belt was going to get 500 at-bats this season. Most didn’t listen, everyone wants to believe that the next big thing will be the next big thing right away, but alas, the Belt situation is playing out as I expected it would. The Giants have an overpaid run producer in Aubrey Huff. Since he’s also a team leader, he figures to play almost every day, either at first or in the outfield. The Giants traded for Melky Cabrera who will play every day. They also added Angel Pagan to add a speed element that the team is sorely lacking. If all three of those guys are in the outfield than Belt can play first base. However, I’ve totally left out the Giants best defensive outfielder who just so happened to pop two long balls Wednesday in Nate Schierholtz. Obviously, this situation is going to leave one guy out in the cold every day. Given that Belt hit just .225 last year, and that he’s started out 1-for-11 this year, it appears that he is already losing ground to the other “proven” players. I’m fully aware that Belt is “the future” and that he has been given only 198 at-bats to this point of his career, but unless he turns things on quickly, or one of the other four is injured, Belt may struggle for at-bats in the early going.

What do you think about Aramis Ramirez? Buy-low trade candidate?
– @Fury5701

Remember that article I referred to at the top of the piece entitled Panic in the Streets? If you didn’t give it a read then now is the time to scroll back up to the top of the page to read it because it will point out something about Aramis Ramirez that should help you to easily answer this question.

To track who has been the best at putting up 5×5 fantasy numbers in the early going make sure to visit Fleaflicker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Relievers: Wild Wild West

We’re less than a week into the fantasy baseball season, and already people are running to the waiver-wire to address the need to fill the saves category in the fantasy game (is this a great time to bring up why we should include Solds as the fifth fantasy category in place of saves? Solds is saves+holds, and it would give middle relievers as much of a chance to be productive as a closer, so instead of worry about who to roster cause you need a closer, you could simply add the best reliever and be done with it). I’m doing to address the hottest situations of the last few days – Nationals, Rays and Red Sox – right after I break down some thoughts on how everyone should be looking at these situations.

I know that everyone didn’t purchase the 2012 Baseball Guys Draft Guide, if you did you’re likely not in the predicament that some people now find themselves in, but here are a few salient bits of information that I suggested people keep in mind when putting together a team.

When choosing a reliever, target arms that:

Have a K/9 rate of 7.50 or better.
Have a BB/9 rate under 3.00
Have a K/BB rate of at least 2.50
It would also be great if they have a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or better.

* The article PITCHING TARGETS in the Draft Guide breaks these numbers down in much greater detail giving lists of pitchers that qualify.

This also brings up the point that I always preach:

Target skills, not roles.

I want the best pitchers on my team. I have no idea how/when/why a manger might change what he will do in the 9th inning. In simple terms – I don’t want a guy on my team merely cause he is the closer. I want a guy on my team who has the skills to be successful. At some point you need saves, and if you have to roster a guy with poor ratios to get them then so be it, but there is little reason to desperately try and grab “closers” with poor skills off the waiver-wire in the first week of the season. Remember that. It’s a long year, 162 games worth, and just cause a guy is set to close right now doesn’t mean he will be closing in August.

NATIONALS
Closer: Drew Storen (likely out until late April)
Replacements: Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez

This is a bad situation to jump into. It was announced today that Lidge and Rodriguez will alternate working the ninth inning game after game. If you’re in a weekly league, it’s almost impossible to use either guy given that fact. Even in a roto league, be very careful here. If Storen is back in three weeks as expected, how much are you willing to pay for 2-3 saves if you add either backup option?

RAYS
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth (elbow strain. No structural damage)
Replacement: Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, J.P. Howell, Jake McGee

Farnsworth could miss two weeks or two months, we don’t really know, though expectations are that he won’t be out long-term. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rays will go with a closer by committee situation. So what do you do here? Rodney is a disaster and his skill set doesn’t come close to matching my “rules” from above. Howell does have a strong skill set but he walks too many batters (4.19 per nine for his career), is left handed and he threw just 30.2 innings last season. That leaves Peralta as the best choice, not just by default either, but also because of his skills. The last two seasons for Peralta have led to some impressive numbers: 8.49 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 an a 4.07 K/BB. The only thing he doesn’t do is induce grounders (his GB/FB ratio for his career is atrocious at 0.66).

RED SOX
Closer: Andrew Bailey (thumb surgery, out 3-4 months)
Replacement: Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon

This is the situation that has me most surprised. Bailey goes down, he’s out at least the first half of the 2012 season, and the Sox name Aceves the closer. What ensues is a stampede to the waiver-wire to add Aceves as everyone suddenly seems to think he’s an elite closer. I’m not kidding. EVERYWHERE I look people are pushing, shoving, lying and stealing in order to add Aceves. A brief example of that is my Twitter Poll that I ran for two hours today. Of the four options people were given to add to their staff, Aceves was chosen 64 percent of the time. Why? I suggest it’s merely because he is a Red Sox (over at Fleaflicker it doesn’t seem that the craziness has taken full hold). Let’s break Aceves down.

His career K/9 mark is 6.26, well below the 7.50 mark I like to target.
His BB/9 mark is 2.70 for his career, below the 3.00 mark I like to target.
His K/BB ratio is 2.32, below the 2.50 mark I like to target.
His GB/FB ratio is 0.88, below the 1.50 mark I like to target.

Furthermore, even if you don’t like my targets, consider this.
His career K/9 mark is below the big league average.
His career K/BB ratio is one tenth better the big league average.
His GB/FB is well below the big league average.

To summarize, Aceves is a pitcher with average big league skills. Period. Just take a look at his xFIP. For his career that mark is 4.54, more than a run an a half above his 2.93 raw ERA. Simply put he’s the anti-Ricky Nolasco. Aceves is someone who has had success that he hasn’t completely deserved. Moreover, and people seem to be looking right past this, he has no experience in the ninth inning with four career saves. I’ve said it, but let me write it for you all one more time; Mark Melancon is a more highly skilled pitcher. His K-rate is better, he generates a significantly higher ground ball rate (his 2.64 GB/FB ratio last season is better than what you get when you combined Aceves’ marks the past two years – 2.52), and Melancon is the one who has experience working the 9th inning (20 saves last year for the Astros). Please heed my warning an avoid going all in on Aceves. If you do, the odds say that you will likely regret it.

By Ray Flowers

Diamond Musings

You got a chance to see my beautiful mug earlier today in Around the Horn – Slow Starts . Now you’ll get a chance to also be bored by my written word.

Alex Gordon has looked great so far justifying the Royals decision to bat him third in the lineup (I still think it’s a bad idea, but for now it’s clearly working). Through that massive sample size of 24 at-bats, Gordon is hitting .375 with a 1.067 OPS as he has scored six times and knocked in three runs through five games. Have the Royals actually, inconceivably, done something right? They have have here, but…

Luke Hochevar was the #1 pick in the country in 2006, and since then he has been a monumental bust. Completely miscast as the Royals’ opening day starter, Hochevar owns a career ERA of 5.61 and a 1.46 WHP over 399.1 innings. He also owns a poor 5.97 K/9 mark and an equally unimpressive 1.95 K/BB ratio. I know the Royals took Hochevar first overall in 2006 because of cost and signability concerns about others in the draft, but look at some of the other first round arms that were taken that year: Brandon Morrow (5th overall), Clayton Kershaw (7th), Tim Lincecum (10th) and Max Scherzer (11th). Now you know why the Royals stink year after year. Let’s give them at least some credit. It’s not like the Rockies (#2 – Greg Reynolds) or Tigers (#6 – Andrew Miller) used their picks wisely either (in retrospect of course).

I got an awful lot of flack from people about having Howie Kendrick ranked so highly this year in the Baseball Guys’ Top-300. It’s only been five games of course, but early returns are very positive as he is hitting .429 with three bombs and six runs scored. He continues to fatten up against the Rays who he has absolutely demolished in his career to the tune of .443/.483/.722 slash line over 97 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 15 while scoring 20 times in those 26 games. Yowzah.

Help me out here Angels. You head into the year with Fernando Rodney as your closer. Everyone tells you it’s a bad idea, I think even the Rally Monkey could have told you that, but you pushed on anyway going with the veteran who saved 37 games in 2009 for the Tigers. So what happens? Rodney goes out and makes two appearances and loses the job? He did walk for guys in 1.1 innings, but honestly Angels, what did you expect? I simply can’t fathom why a team would bail on a player after two games. I’m sitting here castigating people for wanting to abandon ship in the fantasy game, telling them to remain patient, and you go and do this? Fantasy gamers who drop players after a week are stupid. A major league team that demotes a player after a week is monumentally misguided, and that’s being overly kind. So what happens when Peter Bourjos goes 1-for-13, will he lose his job? If Scott Downs returns from the DL and allows runs in three straight outings will he be released? I don’t see how this move helps anyone on the team – all it does is instill fear in the players that they’ll lose their job at the first sign of adversity. Jordan Walden takes over in the 9th inning by the way, and with his dominating stuff he is a must add in all leagues if he’s still sitting on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 13, 2010

A couple of players have decided where they will be plying their talents in 2011, while a few others seem to be nearing an end to the saga of where they will play in the coming campaign.

Scott Downs: The ace lefty reliever left the cold of Toronto for the warmth of Southern California when he signed a 3-year, $15 million deal with the Angels. Downs has been a wonderful reliever since the start of the 2007 season with some rather impressive numbers that Zack Greinke would be proud to call his own – 2.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 7.80 K/9 over 236.2 innings. Downs is also a dominating force against any left-handed batter with a career .223 batting average against portsiders. Simply put, he is one of the best lefty relievers in baseball.

Is this signing a prelude to the Angels also adding power-armed Rafael Soriano as many thought? The answer would appear to be no. It turns out the Angels are likely done spending on their bullpen and will instead go with a bullpen by committee in 2011. “If we need one or two guys at times to get the last out, we’re going to do it but I don’t think the committee’s going to be very large,” Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia said. Fernando Rodney would appear to be the leader in the clubhouse for the spot, though if the matchup dictates we could easily see Kevin Jepsen, Jordan Walden and Mr. Downs working the ninth inning.

Matt Garza: This impressive right-handed arm is apparently up for auction, and the Cubs are looking at picking up the impressive righty. Why Garza over another available righty, Zack Greinke? As Ken Rosenthal pointed out in Gauging the Value of Garza vs. Greinke, the reason the Cubs, or any team, would be more interested in Garza is the fact that he is in a more financially agreeable position with the end result being he will be paid, over the next three seasons, about what Greinke will make over the next two. Garza also has five playoff starts in his career – Greinke has none – and Matt has pitched very well when the pressure has been on (2-1, 3.48 ERA), and you know teams love to see success in the second season. Both pitchers are solid options who have pitched well the past three years. Here are the numbers for 2008-10.

M.Garza: 34-31, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.10 K/9, 2.32/BB
Greinke: 39-32, 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.37 K/9, 3.74 K/BB

Either one would be a tremendous coup for whichever team acquires their services. From an on-field assessment Greinke would appear to be the better hurler, but in terms of the dinero it will take to sign their checks the next three years the more prudent course of action would be to pull the trigger on Garza.

Bill Hall: The Dodgers appear to be in the lead for his services with a report suggesting that they would even make him their starter in left field against right-handed pitching. For the Dodgers sake let’s hope that report was inaccurate. There might even be a bidding war on the horizon as the Astros too are interested in adding the versatile Hall. To think, all a guy has to do is hit worse than the league average (.247), never get on base (.316) and always strikeout (more than 30 percent of the time) to get paid millions of dollars to play professional baseball. These teams do realize that Hall has hit .225 with a .687 OPS over his last 1,082 at-bat don’t they? The versatility he brings is nice, and he does have some pop with 41 homers over those 1,082 ABs, but there is no way you can legitimately make the argument that he should be an every day player on a club that hopes to make the playoffs.

Brendan Ryan: No longer needed in St. Louis after the Cards brought in Ryan Theriot, Ryan was dealt to the Mariners for RHP Maikel Cleto. Ryan, widely regarded as a plus defender, Ryan hit a mere .223 with a sickly .573 OPS lasts season in more than 430 at-bats for the Cards (perhaps the wrist injury that required surgery was more of an issue than he let on). In a career of more than 400 games in the bigs, Ryan has hit .259 with a .658 OPS, though at least he has flashed some speed (39 steals). Can he hit enough to play everyday? The jury is still out. What we do know is that he will be given a chance to earn a starting job either at second or short for the Mariners. Here is what this move means for the Mariners.

(1) Chone Figgins will likely move back to third base this season. This is a great bonus since he will obviously qualify at second and third, as well as middle infield and corner infield, in fantasy leagues. He hit an awful .259 but he still stole 42 bases in 2010, so bump him up in your rankings a bit with this news.

(2) Dustin Ackley is going to have to impress in spring training to make the club. Despite a strong AFL effort that ended up with him taking home league MVP honors (he led the league in average at .424, OBP at .581 and SLG at .758), Ackley isn’t going to be handed a starting spot at second base, he is going to have to earn it. If Dustin doesn’t prove he belongs, Ryan will play second base.

(3) If Ackley proves capable of handling the rigors of second base and major league pitching, Ryan will then compete with Jack Wilson for the starting spot at shortstop. Wilson was no better than Ryan at the dish hitting .249 with a .598 OPS, and injuries limited him to 193 at-bats. He still plays decent defense, but why wouldn’t the Marinres go with the younger Ryan if everything else was equal?

As for Cleto, the 21 year old has hit 100 mph on the radar gun, but he had a terrible 6.16 ERA in Single-A ball last season and is one of those “projects” that teams simply take a flier on in case it comes together. “Cleto has a power arm,” GM John Mozeliak said. “He’s someone that could project as a back-of-the-bullpen talent with additional development and experience.”

In closing, for continued updates on the machinations of the world of baseball make sure you follow the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page.

By Ray Flowers