2012 Positional Review – First Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE Top-10

1  Miguel Cabrera
2  Albert Pujols
3  Joey Votto
4  Prince Fielder
5  Adrian Gonzalez
6  Mark Teixeira
7  Paul Konerko
8  Eric Hosmer
9  Gaby Sanchez
10  Lance Berkman

* David Ortiz and Billy Butler were listed at DH.

Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown hitting .330-44-139. The homers and RBIs were career bests, and this was his 7th season he’s hit at least .320. The just completed season was also a third straight year of 109 or more runs scored and his 9th straight triple-digit RBI season – every full season of his career.

Pujols started out horrifically and it marred his final numbers though he still hit .285 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored. This just might be the player he is now. Even so, he’s still one heck of a hitter.

Votto didn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but did you know that Votto had a better batting average (.337 to .330), OBP (.474 to .393) and OPS (1.041 to .999) than Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera?

Fielder was everything the Tigers hoped he would be in his first season in Motown. He hit a career best .313, had a 4th straight .400 OBP effort, hit 30 homers for the 6th straight year and drove in 108 runs.

Gonzalez had only 18 homers and 75 runs scored, but he still hit .299 and drove in 108 runs. Expectations are the bane of his existence right now. Not mine, I know what A-Gone is, but everyone else’s who seems to think he is a top-15 fantasy overall option. He just isn’t and never was.

Teixeira had gone deep 30 times with 100 RBIs every year from 2004-11. That streak ended as he was held to 24-84 in ’12. However, injuries limited him to just 123 games. If he had appeared in 150 games, a total he reached each year from 2008-11, his prorated effort would have led to 29 homers and 102 RBIs meaning he was still right on pace in the counting categories.

Konerko’s slash line was once again impressive at .298/.371/.486, right in line with his career numbers (.283/.359/.499). However, he failed to hit 30 homers for the first time in three years (26), and his RBI total of 75 was the worst number he had ever posted in a season of 500 at-bats.

Hosmer was a brutal disappointment. He still led AL first sackers in steals (16) and he was just one homer from a 15/15 season. Actually, that’s not awful for a second year player is it? Keep an eye on him in 2013.

Everyone in the world missed on Hosmer who’s outward appearance tanked in his second season, but my call on Sanchez was the worst one I made in over 500 ranked players (I don’t really blame players for being hurt, so it’s hard to find as much fault with the equally pathetic Berkman). After back-to-back seasons of at least 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored he was limited to 299 pathetic at-bats hitting .217 with seven homers, 30 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

Berkman appeared in just 32 games in his worst season, perhaps the last in his career. Even with all the injuries of late, the last time Berkman appeared in less than 120 games in a season was the 2000 season.

Hit: Paul Goldschmidt (#17)
One of those I suggested targeting outside the top-10 was Goldy. The NL’s HR/SB option at first, Goldschmidt socked 20 homers and stole 18 bases. Unlike Hosmer who hit .232, Goldschmidt posted a .286 batting average in an impressive first full season.

Miss: Gaby Sanchez

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Justin Smoak and Brett Wallace

photo © 2008 Joel Dinda | more info (via: Wylio)

Both of these first sackers have been viewed as potential middle of the order threats since the day they were drafted two spots apart in 2008, and both have started out well this year after disappointing beginnings to their big league careers. Is 2011 going to be a breakout year for either or both?

JUSTIN SMOAK
Drafted: 11th overall, 2008
2010 numbers:.279-9-30-33-0 in 50 games (AAA), .218-13-48-40-1 in 100 games (majors)
2011 numbers: .302-4-14-9-0 in 19 games

When you’re the centerpiece of a deal for Cliff Lee, you had better come through.

Smoak has been thought of as a .290, 25 homer threat since being drafted by the Rangers. He flew through the minors entering Triple-A in his second professional season, and all told only has 104 games at that level (he has just 119 games in the bigs). Clearly he’s still a very raw 24 years old. Last season he looked over-matched if you judge his effort by his .218 average, but hidden inside that effort was some positivity. Despite that hideous mark, Smoak smoked the ball (you didn’t think I would be able to avoid that reference did you?) to the tune of a 23.1 percent line drive rate. With a mark like that you’d figure his BABIP would be at least .310 or .320, yet somehow he ended the year with a .255 mark. Was he unlucky? On the surface it sure seemed that way. Flash forward to 2011 and his hit rate has gone way up to .326 in the early going. However, that total isn’t supported by a strong line drive rate as it has fallen to a terrible 14.0 percent. Odd to say the least. It’s also a concern that he has struck out in a quarter of his at-bats, but that seems to be the norm in the game anymore.

In terms of his skill set, Smoak is looking good. His 0.98 GB/FB is pretty much average, but the fly balls he hits end up in the seats frequently given his career 13.8 percent HR/F rate (the big league average is 9-10 percent). Safeco is a hard park to go deep in, but it seems like Smoak may have the ability, much like Adrian Gonzalez when he played at Petco, to still power the ball into the seats even if the park doesn’t help matters at all.

Bottom Line: Smoak appears likely to be a mixed league asset this year at the corner infield position. At the same time he doesn’t appear likely to break out this season. His average should be solid, as will his power production, but this guy isn’t Mark Teixeira – he’s much more likely to give you a Gaby Sanchez like line   (.273-19-85-72-5 in 2010).

BRETT WALLACE
Drafted: 13th overall, 2008
2010 numbers: .301-18-61-64-1 in 95 games (AAA), .222-2-13-14-0 in 51 games (majors)
2011 numbers: .367-1-9-14-0 in 23 games

This man could always hit. However with about as bad a baseball ody as you could ever find, there have always been questions about his ability to play defense. Drafted as a third baseman by the Cardinals, he was moved to the Athletics, then the Blue Jays and finally to the Astros where is has settled in as a first baseman (honestly, his best “position” might be DH – though you never want to see that done with a guy who is this young).

Throughout his minor league career, Wallace has done as expected – he’s hit. In over 1,110 minor league at-bats Wallace has hit .304 with an OPS of .862 with an average of 21 homers per 500 at-bats. However, questions about his defense continued to dog him which is one of the reasons that he’s already on his fourth team.

As a major leaguer he’s only got 223 at-bats under his belt so it’s a bit tough to draw any real conclusions, but it’s safe to say that he has continued to be a solid hitter. However, his 29.1 percent K-rate bears watching, especially when pitchers learn how to get him out. How will he adjust? I’m also very concerned by his poor 0.25 BB/K ratio as there aren’t many players who can be uber successful with a rate like that. There’s also the little matter of that unsustainable .374 career BABIP mark.

Bottom Line: Wallace does a lot of things well, and there is little reason to think he’ll be anything other than a full-time player for the Astros. While he might hit for a better average than Smoak, he isn’t likely to match the power production of the Mariners first sacker. A valuable NL-only option, be careful not to overestimate his value in mixed leagues because of his hot start.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: First Base, Third Base

You’re killing me.

I say that with all due respect mind you. Let me tell you what I mean.

I sit at my computer all day, every day, typing away answering emails, writing articles, researching etc. It’s a rather sad existence at times (who am I kidding, how great is it that I get to work in my slippers?). I’m used to long days, 12 hours is often the norm, so I’m not unfamiliar with onerous work schedules. So what did I mean when I led off this piece with “you’re killing me?”

Simply put, my mailbox has been flooded with requests for the FREE player capsules I’m giving away. I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to you, the reader, that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com – Fantasy Baseball Blog.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

FIRST BASE / THIRD BASE
Again, to lighten the workload a bit, I figured I would combine corner infielders (1B, 3B) today.

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Derrek Lee
When healthy he has rarely been great but he is almost always very good. In each of his last 10 healthy seasons he has hit at least 19 homers with 70 runs and 70 RBI. Those numbers don’t sound exciting, but since 2000 his total of 10 such seasons leads all first basemen. Age is catching up with him, and he never runs anymore, but he is a safe option if you don’t reach.

Aubrey Huff
Huff and the Rally Thong helped lead the Giants to the World Series, and they’ll both be back for two more years in San Francisco. One of only four first basemen to hit .290 with 25 homers, 85 RBI and 100 runs, Huff rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to post his 7th 20-homer season and his 6th season of 85 RBI. If you pay for a repeat you should be on fairly solid ground.

Pablo Sandoval
Thinking the way to major league success was paved with pizza and profiteroles, Sandoval’s weight was/is a major issue. The Giants have put Pablo on notice that if he can’t see his toes, he could be sent to the minors. Just a year removed from an all-star caliber season, Sandoval would benefit from a more patient approach. Can weight loss help that?

The Corner Infielder code is: Plentiful Power

One last thing. For those of you looking for some baseball talk, you can click on this link to the DSD Podcast. I talked with Aaron and Karter about Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and other topics around major league baseball.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez

I get it. A big bat gets paid bazillions of dollars, leaves the worst hitting park in baseball, and that transforms the player into a dynamic offensive weapon. I certainly buy that to a point with Adrian Gonzalez, but it seems like most of my fantasy brethren have been hitting the hookah pipe a bit too frequently when it comes to estimating Gonzalez’s fantasy value in 2011.

Over at Fanball in a well written article by Greg Ambrosius entitled NFBC: The Rise of A-Gone, Gregg points out how voters are loving them some Adrian Gonzalez because of the move out of Petco and to Fenway Park. Greg gives the data simply: before the Trade Gonzalez went 27th or 29th in the 15 team mixed league drafts for the NFBC. After the trade to Boston that number jumped to 20, 18, 16, 14 and 11.

Does that meteoric rise make any sense? Greg does a great job in the piece laying out the statistical reasons that seem to be behind the rise in Adrian’s ADP numbers. Greg also points out a rather interesting number that some may not be aware of – in each of the past four seasons Gonzalez has gone deep at least 20 times on the road (he never hit more than 14 at home). Does this mean he is a lock for 40 homers? I think “lock” is too strong a term for a guy who has hit 40 homers only once in his career. Why? I think it will surprise many people to learn that Fenway wasn’t exactly a homer heaven for left-handed batters last season. Seriously. Here are the Park Indices number for left-handed hitting batters, in the homer category, for 2011 for Petco and Fenway (100 is neutral, under 100 favors pitchers, over 100 favors hitters).

Petco: 64, 16th in the NL
Fenway: 86, 9th in the AL

The truth of the matter is that Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all with a mark of 88 the past three years, 12th in the American League. Shocked aren’t you?

Beyond that, there are two major issues that concern me.

First of all, Gonzalez had shoulder surgery and while everyone believes he will be at or near 100 percent this season it’s quite possible that he will not be allowed to swing a bat until March. Do you really want to spend a first round pick on a guy who will only have a month of hacks under his belt before games count?

Second, what about the wealth of talent at first base in 2011? If you look at the Fanball Staff Rankings you will notice that I’m the lowest of the ranking members in terms of my placement of Gonzalez as I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix even with some of his struggles last season since he still had 32 bombs and posted a .401 OBP (Gonzalez was at 31 and .393 by the way). Kevin Youkilis is also coming back from surgery but I might be convinced to move him behind the Red Sox new first baseman. Finally, the move of Adam Dunn to the White Sox would appear to give him a legit shot at 45 homers if not more. After all, U.S. Cellular Field in Chitown is first in Park Indices for homers the past three years, and fourth for left-handed batters.

Add all of that up and I’m gonna let someone else take Gonzalez with the 16th pick. I’ll happily wait 20 selections to roster Adam Dunn.

And finally, in the I told you so file…

Edgar Renteria was disrespected, or whatever he said, when the Giants offered him a 1-year deal for $1 million. Guess he had a right to feel that way. It looks like he got a deal from the Reds for $3 million. I don’t know if that makes him seem smart, or if that means the Reds are just lost?

By Ray Flowers