(1) Orlando Hudson (hamstring) to the DL. Logan Forsythe to replace him.
(2) Brandon Lyon imploding for Astros. Time to add Mark Melancon?
(3) Andre Ethier (elbow) on shelf. Hitting streak intact.
(4) Jonathan Broxton (elbow) shut down. Who will Dodgers turn to – Hong-Chih Kuo, Vicente Padilla or someone else?
(5) Scott Sizemore starting at 2B for Tigers.
(6) Francisco Liriano’s no-hitter.
By Ray Flowers
I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.
Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town
Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).
4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS
Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.
Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well
Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.
On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.
On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.
On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).
Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.
2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB
If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.
Who Am I?
I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.
I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.
I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.
I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.
Any idea who I might be?
No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?
I pitch for the Dodgers.
I’ve been in the United States for three years.
My name is Hiroki Kuroda.
Will someone please show me some respect?
Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)
By Ray Flowers
The mighty has fallen. It may not be as depressing as the fact that the house you bought for $300,000 dollars two years ago might sell for $225,000 today, but in fantasy circles the loss was just as severe. Stephen Strasburg suffered a substantially torn ulnar collateral ligament, and what that means is that there is an exceedingly high probability that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. I already wrote about the ramifications of this situation in Five Questions: Is Strasburg Finished?, but I wanted to expand on something I only briefly mentioned in that piece – and that is the way that organizations baby their pitchers. Is there any benefit to this recent practice?
It has become a comical situation really. Teams are so worried about protecting their investments that they treat them as if they were made out of paper mache. In fact, the level of injury in today’s pitcher seems to be much higher than it was in years past despite the advent of advanced physical training and medical proficiency. How is it that guys who are bigger, stronger, more reliably trained, and more closely watched than ever before break down more quickly than at any point in the past? I just don’t get it.
In the case of the Nationals, the team counted everything Strasburg did with the attention of an auditor from the government who is trying to extract every penny from your wallet. They never let him toss more than 99 pitches in a big league game, and only twice was he allowed to log even seven innings in an outing. A lot of good that all that monitoring did for Mr. Strasburg.
At the other end of the spectrum we have his teammate, Livan Hernandez, who has never missed a buffet in his life – yet he continues to roll on basically injury free. Listed as 35 years old, he might actually be 40 for all we know, Livan continues to rack up innings year after year, and he’s now 11 innings from 13th straight season of at least 180-innings. Is Livan simply gifted with a “rubber” arm? Was he genetically predisposed to never have a serious arm problem? Has he avoided injury because his career average for a fastball is a mere 85 mph? I mean after all, Strasburg’s average change-up this season was 89.7 mph.
I have no idea what the answers are to these questions. All I know is that time after time we are smacked in the face by the fact that even though we think we have it figured out, we actually have no clue.
Strasburg had his innings pitched totals limited – almost obnoxiously so. Strasburg had hid pitch total managed fastidiously as well. Yet here we are with a torn tendon and the inevitable surgery.
Perhaps the truth is that human beings simply aren’t meant to throw a baseball over an over again at such speeds. There were hurlers in the past who could rush it up there in the high 90′s, guys like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard obviously come to mind, but there is no disputing the fact that today there are more pitchers than ever capable of tossing the old ball at speeds in excess of 95 mph. As training methods have improved, pitchers are able to get more out of their body than ever before, but perhaps we’ve gotten to the point that we have taxed the human body so excessively that sooner or later, like a taught rubber band, there will be an inevitable snap back.
If you ask me here is the simply truth – each man has a certain amount of bullets in his gun. It doesn’t matter if he stands 5’11″ or 6’6″, it doesn’t matter if he weighs 165 or 250 lbs, and it doesn’t matter if he throws 87 or 97 mph. Sooner or later everyone’s arm goes, and for every Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine we have a Francisco Liriano, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Carpenter, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria etcetera, etcetera. The real issue here isn’t training methods or velocity as much as it should be a realization that sooner or later all pitchers have to pay the price for the fame and fortune they attain.
By Ray Flowers
Today is a special day as every player in baseball will be wearing the number 42 as a tribute to Jackie Robinson, the man who broke the color barrier in major league baseball. A year ago I wrote my thoughts down about Jackie Robinson – how special a person he was, and what his lasting legacy would be. It’s still as poignant today as it was then. Here is the link to Here’s to You Mr. Robinson.
Jacoby Ellsbury can’t take deep breaths without having a sharp pain in his side. I’m no doctor, but that sounds like a serious issue with his rib cage. That return date of Friday isn’t going to happen. Ellsbury will go for more tests on Friday to determine what’s going on and if a DL stint is needed.
Jose Guillen is a man on a mission. Whether that mission is to return to relevance on the ball field, to work his way out of Kansas City, or just to be healthy again, Guillen is making noise. He has certainly placed his stamp on the season having gong deep in each of the past four games with a total of five homers and eight RBI. Don’t forget that Guillen has gone deep at least 20 times in each of his last five healthy seasons during which time he has averaged 92 RBI a season (he had only 241 at-bats in 2006 and just 281 last season). As for the last part, he obviously seems healthy, a fact that he no longer takes for granted after he literally feared for his life this offseason because of blood clots. “The doctor started talking about dying,” he said. “I didn’t even know what a blood clot was. It was so bad that I couldn’t feel my legs.” You can read more about the harrowing experience at Guillen Almost Died.
Francisco Liriano looked like the “old” Liriano today. He threw seven shutout innings against the Red Sox striking out eight. If he throws strikes this season, he could have a ton of success given that he has rediscovered about three mph on his fastball and some bite on that once nasty slider.
Bud Norris – that’s a young arm I really like. He may struggle at times since he really doesn’t have a third pitch, but when he is on, he can dominate batters. He did just that on Thursday allowing the Cardinals only a single unearned run in five innings. He whiffed nine in the victory.
I was pleasantly surprised today watching Scott Olsen pitch today. I know he gave up four runs in 5.2 innings to the Phillies, but he actually pitched much better than that – though I still wouldn’t count on him to be effective enough to be a weekly option in NL-only league. At the same time, I wasn’t at all impressed by J.A. Happ who continues to work with a massive rabbit’s foot in his pocket. Somehow he didn’t allow an earned runs despite walking six batters in 5.1 innings. He’s walked eight guys in 10.1 innings this season yet he owns a 1.65 ERA. Just like I said last year, a correction is a coming.
David Ortiz is hitting .154 with 13 Ks in 26 at-bats, and all you hear about is the fact that he could be the worst hitter in the history of baseball, which makes me wonder – why is it that J.D. Drew is basically getting a pass despite being just as awful (.143 with 13 Ks in 28 at-bats)?
I’m totally shocked that Jeff Suppan gave up four runs in five innings in his season debut. Actually the only shock is that it was only four runs.
Carlos Zambrano threw 123 pitches today — and only lasted five innings. Besides the stupidity of allowing anyone to throw that many pitches in just five innings, how could anyone let someone do that in the second week of the regular season? And people say that Dusty Baker abuses his pitchers.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Carl Crawford is no longer negotiating with Rays meaning this is almost assuredly his last season with the club.
(2) Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan receive positive news in regards to their injuries
(3) Adam Dunn working on defense at 1B for Nationals.
(4) Alfonso Soriano reporting that his knee is improving.
(5) Brad Lidge throwing – showing improvement. Still hopes to make opening day.
(6) Francisco Liriano has Twins excited with the return of his “stuff.”
(7) Jose Batista to bat leadoff for Blue Jays – uh oh.
By Ray Flowers
1- I rostered Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter at shortstop and middle infield for a total of $49 of my $260 dollar salary. Considering the paucity of top level talent at shortstop, I thought that it was a great idea to not only fill my middle infield spot with Jeter, an amazingly consistent force, but also to in essence “steal” a stud shortstop from another squad. Good luck rolling with Ryan Theriot.
2- I grabbed a couple of guys, on the cheap, who clearly have a shot at returning some nice value in 2010.
Corey Hart ($10) – Wait a second, didn’t Hart go 20/20 in back-to-back seasons before last years struggles? Given that he is just one year removed from said 20/20 work, and that he will only be 27 years old on opening day, I’d have to say that my Fanball co-workers missed the boat here. He may never have that truly monumental effort with his lack of plate discipline, but there is at least a 50/50 shot that he returns at least $15 in 2010, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number approached $20.
Johnny Damon ($10) – I guess everyone must have been staring at a hottie on the television when Damon’s name came up. Perhaps the guys are worried how his production could fall if he isn’t hitting at the top of the Yankees order in that great hitters’ park, but come on now. He has no upside, and will be 36 next season, but the guy has scored 90+ runs in 12-straight years and in each of the last 14 seasons he has appeared in at least 140 games – the third longest streak in the history of baseball. A safe pick if there is such a thing.
Johnny Peralta ($5) – Third base is really, really shallow this season. This isn’t a huge upside selection if you look at his ’09 numbers (.254-11-83), that is until you realize that he socked 44 homers with 161 RBI in 2007-08. He has the added bonus of qualifying at shortstop (41 games) and third base (105). Considering how late I grabbed him (my 20th pick I believe), I don’t think there is any reason to view this as anything other than a fine selection.
Vladimir Guerrero ($6) – It’s like no one realizes that he hit .295 with 15 homers in just 383 ABs. Give him 550 ABs and we are talking about a pace that would have led to a .295 average and 22 homers. If healthy, I really don’t see a reason he can’t go .300-20, though you do have to remember he only qualifies at DH.
Francisco Liriano ($2) – I know he will never again be the wunderkind who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and a 10.71 K/9 mark in 2006 prior to his elbow surgery, but he could easily quintuple the cost here, and that makes him a bargain basement buy with considerable upside.
So there are my thoughts on my first 2010 baseball auction, even though we still have a month and a half left in the 2009 season.
By Ray Flowers
Wednesday was one busy day in baseball as a series of deals took place. Let’s hope that this won’t be the only foray in the trade market by many of the teams involved with the trade deadline looming on Friday. Regardless, for now, we have plenty to talk about.
The big deal of the day saw the Phillies add 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee to the mix when the Blue Jays continued to ask for too much in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes. This marks the second straight year that the Indians have dealt their ace – they sent CC Sabathia to the Brewers in 2008. This is a great move for the Phils who add a terrific arm to their rotation, and they are the team to beat tin the NL yet again. To read more about this deal, give Ted Carlson’s Brother-Lee Love a read.
The Pirates have traded something like half their club over the past few weeks (not quite), and they continued to move parts around with a deal for the future that saw them send Jack Wilson and Ian Snell for a plethora of young talented, players from the Mariners highlighted by C/1B Jeff Clement. To read my thought on all the players involved, let me direct you to my piece entitled Pirates Continue to Tinker.
The Pirates, continued their day of deals by then pulling off another potentially big deal for the club down the road as they traded second baseman Freddy Sanchez to the Giants in exchange for minor league pitching prospect Tim Alderson. Here are my thoughts on the deal.
1- The Giants have greatly improve their lineup the past couple of days by adding Sanchez and Ryan Garko. Neither of these two batters are going to carry the club, but when the alternatives were Juan Uribe/Eugenio Velez/Matt Downs/Kevin Frandsen and Travis Ishikawa, obviously the club is in a much better spot now they were mere days ago.
2- Sanchez, as long as his back and knee are healthy (the knee held up the deal as doctors were consulted), should continue to be what he has always been, and that is a .300 hitter. Sanchez, who let injury and the pressure of a potential deal weigh him down the past few weeks (he has hit .176 over his last 51 ABs), should be invigorated by the move to a club that actually has a chance to make the playoffs. Another reason to expect his average to rebound somewhat is due to the fact that his line drive rate of 22.6 percent is about two percentage points below his career mark. It wouldn’t hurt if he cut his strikeout rate as well since he is currently operating at a 16.9 percent mark, a full five and a half percentage points worse than his career rate.
3- The Giants sent out their fourth ranked prospect according to Baseball America, Tim Alderson, to the Pirates in the deal (he was the Giants first round selection in 2007). A 6’6″ righty who profiles as a #2 or #3 starter at the big league level, Alderson is an extremely efficient hurler who knows his way around the strike zone. At just 20 years of age, Alderson owns a 20-6 record with a 3.07 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his 249 professional innings. He has also walked a total of just 51 batters, or less than two per nine innings, a terrific number for a youngster with a K/9 mark of more than seven.
This is a fantastic deal for the Giants in 2009, but when we revisit this deal in 2012, I have the sneaking suspicion that this deal will rank right alongside that other fine move of Brian Sabean in which he traded Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano to the Twins for 131 games of A.J. Pierzynski. Say it ain’t so Brian, say it ain’t so.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
