April 8: Baseball Notes

I’m all over the place today, but what better way is there to be when you want to read about everything that is fantasy related in the first week of the baseball season?

The average price for a major league ticket went up 1.5 percent this year to $26.74. That number pales to what is happening in Minnesota where the new stadium, and Joe Mauer’s $184 million deal, have helped lead to a 45 percent jump in ticket prices over last year to $31.47. The cheapest average ticket in baseball belongs to the D’backs, In addition if you are a fan of the NL West you’re in good shape – two of the six teams in baseball that saw their ticket prices go down for 2010 are the Padres (15.4 percent) and Giants (1.8 percent).

Bronson Arroyo allowed one run over eight innings against the Cardinals on Thursday. You may want to sit down before you read this, but according to Stats Inc., since July 10th of last year Arroyo has the best ERA in baseball for any pitcher who has tossed at least 100-innings at 2.01.

Frank Francisco blew the Rangers game on Thursday as he picked up a blown save and the loss as he allowed the Jays to score three times. Earlier in the game Neftali Feliz needed 13 pitches to strike out the side in his lone inning of work. It’s way too early to be talking about a changing of the guard in the 9th inning, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind.

The Yankees have been estimated to be worth $1.6 billion. You’ll only need to sell the Pirates ($295 million) five times to get close to that number.

Jonny Gomes had a walk-off homer on Thursday. Reds, please give this guy 500 at-bats. If you do, I can almost guarantee that he’ll sock 30 dingers.

Ian Kinsler is starting to make me nervous. He had a second cortisone shot today, meaning his goal of getting back on the field by mid week next week may or may not happen.

Victor Martinez likes hitting early in the year before his body gets beaten up from the rigors of catching. In April, his career batting average is .321 with 19 homers and 77 RBI in 126 games.

Don’t look now, but Magglio Ordonez has a 16-game hitting streak dating back to last season, and he has produced at least two hits in 6-straight outings. Adding his 7-for-14 start this season to his work from his last 28 games from last season nets you a .446 average. I don’t care if he hits as many homers as Juan Pierre if he can stay within 25 percent of that mark. Hell, over his last 63 games he is batting .383. Astounding.

Speaking of Mags, care to see my thoughts on the Tigers for 2010? You can also see a really serious picture of me if you click on the link to Tigers’ 2010 Season Prediction Roundup.

Vernon Wells hit his fourth homer of the year on Thursday to become the first Blue Jay in history to hit four homers in the first three games of the season. Wells hit only five homers in his final 64 games last season.

Dontrelle Willis allowed two runs over six innings on Thursday and hit 93 mph on a couple of fastballs. There is a caveat, it was against the Royals, but he walked only two batters – a very positive sign. I highly doubt he will be fantasy relevant in ’10, but it would certainly be a great story for baseball if he was.

By Ray Flowers

Free Agent Bidding

I was thinking about how the fantasy baseball free agent bidding process, and I’m continually amazed at how the process works. Before I get into why that is, let me briefly describe what I’m talking about.

Total Free Agency
Back in the day, and in some leagues still, players are on the free agent wire to be picked up at any time. While this might be the easiest way to do things and the way that most of us grew up with playing the game, the fact is this is really an unfair system. Let me give just one example that illustrates why. Let’s say you live on the west coast, and let’s posit that Brian Wilson blows his arm out at 11:45 PM in the 14th inning of the game (this is NOT true – it is only an example). On the telecast, right after the game, manager Bruce Bochy says that Jeremy Affeldt will be the new Giants closer so you run an pick him up off waivers. If you live on the east coast and are in bed because it’s 3 AM and you have a job, you are screwed. You never even had a chance to grab Affeldt.

Weekly Free Agency
Let’s assume the above scenario. However, let’s say that this happens on Tuesday night and your leagues free agency period ends on Sunday night at 8 PM, EST. That means that you have Wednesday through Sunday to put in a bid on Affeldt so that everyone has a shot. In this scenario teams are offered players based on the reverse order of the standings. That means, if you are in a 12-team league that the team in 12th place gets the first choice of free agents, team 11 second, all the way down to the first place team getting last shot. However, once a team picks up a player it goes to the back of the bus. Let’s say the 12th place team doesn’t need closers so they pick up Chris Coghlan off waivers first. They then drop to last in line and the team in 11th place would get a shot at Affeldt or whomever else they wanted and so on.

FAAB Bidding
This is the way that most of the “money” leagues do it. In this process each team is given a budget of Monopoly money, i.e. fake dollars, and they get to bid on free agents. Just like weekly free agency, most of the time there is one day a week when bids are due, though some leagues implement this FAAB process on a daily basis as well. FAAB means Free Agent Acquisition Budget by the way. This is my favorite style because everyone gets a chance at every player, provided they have any money left, and it adds an extra element of strategy to the mix. Continuing with our example, let’s say we have a $1,000 budget to work with for the year and we owned Wilson and now would like to have Affeldt. We’re not sure he will be able to hold the job down, but we need the saves, so we drop a bid of $135 dollars on him. Another team, super desperate for saves bids $210. Another team who is also desperate for saves might think Affeldt will eventually lose the job to Bobby Howry so they only bid $41 dollars on him. The point is, you not only have to identify the players you want in this scenario, you also have to identify how much is an appropriate amount to spend, because once your money is gone you can no longer bid so it makes no sense to simply toss out an outrages bid like $400 on Affeldt.

To show the diversity amongst owners, here are FAAB from Sunday the 17th on C.J. Wilson who will close until Frank Francisco returns from biceps tendonitis. Current reports have Francisco back on Friday, and the belief is that he will slide right back into the closers role. As a result, I personally bid $24 dollars on Wilson thinking I might pick up a week’s worth of saves because his work this season has been miserable (1.53 WHIP, 5.51 K/9, 1.11 K/BB) rendering him useless without saves. How did my $24 bid stack up? Well, I didn’t “win” Wilson, he went for $68 in my league, and here is what he cost in a host of the other National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues this past weekend.

C.J. Wilson $200
C.J. Wilson $53
C.J. Wilson $116
C.J. Wilson $76
C.J. Wilson $129
C.J. Wilson $97
C.J. Wilson $65
C.J. Wilson $88
C.J. Wilson $157
C.J. Wilson $249
C.J. Wilson $75
C.J. Wilson $105
C.J. Wilson $195
C.J. Wilson $54
C.J. Wilson $63
C.J. Wilson $111
C.J. Wilson $89
C.J. Wilson $106
C.J. Wilson $169
C.J. Wilson $43
C.J. Wilson $57
C.J. Wilson $54
C.J. Wilson $52
C.J. Wilson $21

As you can plainly see we had winning bids from $21 to $249, a massive spread. In my league where he went for $68, there was one other bid for a dollar more than me at $25. What his means is that the $68 dollar bid would have been a winner at $26 dollars meaning that the “winner” ended up wasting $42. Still, as you can tell from the other bids, in a good deal of leagues even the $68 bid would have come up way short.

To me, this added layer of the free agent bidding process sets leagues like this apart forcing you to use yet another skill set in order to emerge victorious in your fantasy league. If your league doesn’t use this process I highly suggest moving to it in 2010 as there is nothing like being able to bitch about getting screwed by two dollars or lording it over your friends when you are the one that came out on top.

By Ray Flowers

At What Cost?

Every team needs saves. Some take the chance on draft day and roster “locks” like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, while others take the chance on guys with good skills that have yet to prove themselves (names like Frank Francisco, Joey Devine and Chad Qualls). Others wait to roster closer off of the waiver-wire knowing full well that saves can be had, in standard 12 team leagues, virtually all season via free agency. In fact, according to our friends at Baseball HQ, roughly 1/3 to ½ of all closers who open the year as their teams top ninth inning ace failed to return even 50% of their draft day value by seasons end (that means if you spent $20 on a reliever he would be just as likely to earn $20 as he would be to earn $10 or less in production). Think that’s off the mark? Just look at names that little last years save leaders and think back as to how many of these guys could have been had off waivers in the month of April, 2008.

George Sherrill- 31 saves
Salomon Torres- 28
Ryan Franklin- 17
Fernando Rodney-13
Dan Wheeler- 13
Jensen Lewis- 13
Brad Ziegler- 11

My bet is that every one of those guys were available in your league last April.

The point is that guys with saves can certain be found on waivers, in fact early season breakout candidates in this realm include the likes of Ryan Franklin (seven), and Fernando Rodney (six). The question becomes, how much do you spend on guys if you are in a league that uses free agent acquisition budget’s (FAAB) and your are looking at in season moves? Here are my thoughts on the four biggest names that were likely picked up weekend.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros
With Jose Valverde likely to miss at least four weeks with a calf injury, Hawkins will likely hold down the ninth inning for the Astros, and this position was further enhanced when Doug Brocail was forced to the DL with a hamstring injury. Hawkins hasn’t recorded double-digit saves since 2004 and he has just 10 saves and 20 blown saves in that time. In fact, since 2005 Hawkins has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 K/9 mark. That’s league average across the board, but at least you know you should get a month of save chances out of him.
VALUE: Medium

Joe Beimel, Nationals
Julian Tavarez is also in the mix for saves, and Beimel is actually in the minors right now on a rehab assignment for a left hip flexor strain (he hopes to be back this week). Beimel has appeared in 224 games since the start of the 2006 season, and in that time he has only thrown 193.2 innings as more often than not he wasn’t asked to face right-handed batters. In this time frame he also owns a 4.83 K/89 mark and a 1.55 K/BB rate, terrible numbers for a reliever and putrid for a closer. He will likely get a few saves, but I just can’t see him being the answer as Joel Hanrahan certainly should get a shot to reclaim his lost job at some point.
VALUE: Low

Ryan Madson, Phillies
Only a closer if Brad Lidge is out with injury. There are concerns with Lidge’s knee, but Madson is clearly the second option even though at this point his ability to accrue saves is nil. Still, Madson is a fine addition given that his fastball has gained three mph this season (94.6) leading to a huge boost in his K/9 mark (13.09) while working with a tremendous 1.83 G/F ratio. If Lidge goes down, still a possibility, Madson gains a ton of value.
VALUE: Medium

Michael Wuertz, Athletics
Joey Devine is out for the year. Brad Ziegler is missing time with an illness. Santiago Casilla is on the DL with a calf strain. That means Wuertz has picked up a couple of saves while sporting a solid 8.56 K/9 marl and a scintillating 6.50 K/BB. Don’t expect it to continue as his control has never been remotely this good (2.18 K/BB career). When Ziegler and Casilla are healthy look for Wuertz to be nothing more than a solid middle reliever option, especially with Andrew Bailey also pitching lights out (1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 20 K in 17.2 IP).
VALUE: Low

The bottom line is that saves are available and will continue to be on there on waivers through the course of the season. Just make sure you invest wisely so as to avoid picking up a handful of saves while imploding your ratios.

By Ray Flowers