Player Profile: Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman, the Braves’ first baseman, had a solid second season. In fact, “solid” may not quite be the correct adjective to use when describing his 2012 efforts. Some will see the drop in batting average and the nearly identical OPS and worry that he didn’t take a step forward in Year II. Some will remember the constant physical issues that hindered him included a couple of week span where his vision became an issue. I on the other hand think the seeds are being laid for a potentially bountiful payoff in 2013.

Freeman hit .282 in 2011 with a .795 OPS.
In 2012 he hit .259 with a .796 OPS.

I can see how no one would be excited about that. First off, .259 is a league average number, and slugging first baseman can’t exist with a sub .800 OPS. But, I’m telling you, Freeman really did take a few steps last season. Let’s start with the obvious.

Freeman added two homers to his 2011 total despite 31 fewer at-bats as he hit 23 homers.

Freeman added 18 more RBIs, remember, in 31 fewer at-bats.

Freeman scored 24 more times, a significant improvement.

Add those three things up and you end up with 23 homers, 94 RBIs and 91 runs scored. Know how many first baseman went 23-90-90 in 2012? Get ready to be shocked. The answer is three – Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion and Freddie Freeman – and Freeman was the only full-time first baseman to do it. That news flash alone should make you look at Freeman a second time.

Freeman cut his strikeout rate from 22.4 percent down to 20.8 percent, a small improvement, but moving in the right direction we are.

Freeman boosted his walk rate from 8.3 percent to 10.3 percent. Again, a relatively minor improvement but an improvement nonetheless. As a result his BB/K mark went from a below league average 0.37 to just slightly better than league average at 0.50.

Freeman upped his fly ball rate from 35 to 37 percent (the league average is usually right around 35-37 percent). He’ll need to boost this number significantly if he hopes to become a 30 homer bat on a consistent basis as he’s just not hitting enough fly ball. Another incremental improvement can be seen in his HR/F ratio that went from 14 to 14.8 percent.

Freeman boosted his line drive rate from an already impressive 23 percent to 26 percent in 2012. That 26 percent total was the fourth best mark in baseball. Given improvements in his walk rate, his strikeout rate and his line drive rate, how did his batting average fall? Part of the blame can be laid squarely at the BABIP god’s feet as he posted a .295 mark. Given his ability to hit liners, and his power stroke, it’s pretty shocking to see a 26 percent line drive rate lead to a sub .260 batting average. In fact, of the 10 men in baseball who had a line drive rate last season of 25 percent all of them posted at least a .319 BABIP. Moreover, here are the nine other men’s batting averages (remember Freeman hit .259).

.300 Dexter Fowler
.309 Jordan Pacheco
.281 Alejandro De Aza
.306 Marco Scutaro
.313 Robinson Cano
.281 Chris Johnson
.313 Prince Fielder
.319 Joe Mauer
.294 Alex Gordon

As you can easily tell, none of the other nine men batted less than .281. So hypothetically, let’s assume that Freeman returns to the .280 level in batting average, something that isn’t a stretch to think could happen at all given that Freeman did bat .282 as a rookie in 2011. Let’s say he takes just a wee bit of a step forward across the board in Year III like he did in Year II. Let’s say that results in a .280-25-100-90 line. How would that look on the back of his baseball card? I know you’re asking, an I’ve got the answer – eight. That’s the number of players who went .280-25-100-90 in 2012 (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones, Adrian Beltre, Edwin Encarnacion and Alex Rios). If Freeman were to get to the those levels, and I see no reason to think that such a season isn’t possible, just how effective will he be on draft day given that his cost will be so much less than the others that I just listed?

Freeman doesn’t seem to be an obvious candidate to explode, the type of guy to hit .300 with 35 homers and 115 RBIs, but that doesn’t mean that he took the step back last season that some people perceived him to. In truth, he seems primed for a third year breakout, even if it’s along somewhat muted lines compared to the superstars of the game, but even so he still could be an excellent, an I mean top shelf, first sacker in the fantasy game in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 13: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+12, $96,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
In his last four games he has gone deep twice and driven in nine runs, and for the month of June he drove the ball into the seats seven times while platting 20 runs. He’s still hitting a mere .231 on the season, and it just doesn’t appear like he is ever going to be able to be a positive producer in that category (even in June he hit just .262). Don’t worry about his leg issue. Apparently it was just cramps and he should be fine.

Clint Barmes (+11, $66K)
The guy has been a monumental failure this season, even in NL-only leagues. On the year Barmes has somehow used 225 at-bats to produce a mere .204/230/.307 line. Never really an All-Star caliber performer despite a couple of nice seasons, he was usually effective when in the lineup. Well, at least he is improving of late. After hitting .149 in April he batted .189 in May and pushed that mark to .247 in June when he had 11 RBI after knocking in just seven runners the first two months of the year.

Freddie Freeman ($19, $105K)
It seems like every week there is some new malady that he is being forced to overcome. Even with all his missed time he still has 10 homers and 47 RBI putting him on pace to better his totals from last year (21 and 76). He’s also produced at least one hit in each of his last six games as he’s knocked in six runs, scored six times, and seen his batting average climb from .247 to .266 in that time.

Yasmani Grandal (+14, $64K)
This switch hitter can sometimes get a little long with his hacks, but as we last week, when he lays into it the ball can fly (his first two big league homers came from each side of the dish). The weeks #1 pickup behind the dish, Grandal has a big enough bat that he could be able to largely keep Nick Hundley out of the mix the rest of the season (when you hit .166 over 193 at-bats like Hundley has, leading to a demotion to the minors, it may not be that hard to do).

Justin Ruggiano (+13, $91K)
Have you noticed that through 54 at-bats this season that Justin is blasting the ball to the tune of a .389 average, a .469 OBP and .704 SLG? Amazing is right. He’ll continue to be in the lineup on a daily basis until he slows down, Ozzie Guillen might have his issues but he’s no moron. Really just an NL-only option unless you’re desperate in a mixed league.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Yonder Alonso (-22, $60K)
Wait, wasn’t this guy supposed to be able to hit? Through 268 at-bats this season he has two homers and 18 RBI. Toss in 23 runs scored and two steals, and he has been one of the least productive full time performers in baseball. When you look over to the average column and find a .257 mark sitting there, thanks to a .218 mark in June, you’ll begin to realize just how disappointing his effort has been this year.

Zack Cozart (-21, $56K)
Every time this guys name is mentioned people get all excited. Why? Sure his 17 homer pace is nice for a shortstop, and if he scored 90 runs that would be great, but the guy just isn’t a good offensive performer. He’s hitting a sub par .245, and his .290 OBP is hideous. He’s only swiped two bases on the year, and despite the power he’s displayed he’s on pace for about 40 RBI. Don’t know why anyone get’s excited about that (at least over at Fleaflicker his owned percentage is pretty low).

Michael Cuddyer (-28, $70K)
Uh oh. Everyone’s darling in Colorado has hit the skids. He’s still on pace for 25 homers and 100 RBI, so the run production has been there, but he’s also seen his batting average dip to .256 and his OBP is .311 after a June he’d like to forget (.212/.257). Also a bit concerning is his 21 percent K-rate after that number has been under 18.5 percent each of the past five years and under 17 percent each of the past two years.

Chris Davis (-26, $60K)
After a horrific dry spell that saw him go eight games without a hit, Davis has rebounded a bit with four hits in his last three games. Even with the dip he’s hitting .271 with 13 homers, and those numbers, if doubled, would still be a solid season for a guy who may have fooled a few people as he was hitting .300 as recently as June 16th. He’s simply not a .300 hitter.

Kendrys Morales (-20, $60K)
Oh you dreaded hype machine. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon when Morales had a scorching week in spring training, everyone it seemed by me of course. Hey, the guy is on pace to hit about .280 with 17 homers, and those aren’t bad numbers for a guy who didn’t play a single game last year. Still, disappointments abounds with a a guy who is also on pace for a .750 OPS with 60 RBI.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Free Agent Monday

photo © 2007 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m not a huge fan of waiver-wire bingo. I think too often we go for the quick fix when slow and steady often wins the race. You know what I’m talking about. Some guy goes 5-for-8 with a homer and a steal and you’d knock over your mother to get to the computer first so you could add him to your team (I know which one of you out there would do it to, so don’t B.S. me and say you wouldn’t). So it’s with trepidation that I throw out the following names based upon their work the past two weeks. Still, it’s Monday and you need to get your lineup in shape for the week, so if you have injured players, or guys that you simply can’t stomach for another week, here are some options you could turn to.

Alexi Casilla – .432-0-5-9-5 in 44 ABs
Finally. This guy can hit and steal a base, just look at his minor league numbers at Triple-A over 168 games: .278/.370/.371 with 38 thefts. However, after hitting .281 in 2008 with the Twins he’s struggled to get significant playing time in the bigs. With the Twins in desperate need of offense you can’t think he will be sitting any time soon, though it will be interesting to see what happens when Tsuyoshi Nishioka returns from the DL. For now, Casilla is white hot, and since he qualifies at 2B and SS there could easily be a spot for him on your club.

Freddie Freeman – .378-1-7-4-1 in 45 ABs
The problem for any solid first base hitter is that first base is the land of the titans. Solid just won’t cut it unless you are in a deep league or one that starts corner infielders. However, the Braves’ rookie is doing his best to make you consider his name for a starting spot. In six of his last eight games he has at least two hits, he’s driven in seven runners in that time, and lo and behold his season long batting average is now .277 – not bad when you consider it was sitting at .220 less than a month ago (May 13th). If you need an injury fill in he seems primed to help, but again, make sure you don’t make the mistake of thinking Freddie’s ready to be a starter at first in a 12 team mixed league.

Chase Headley – .354-0-5-5-2 in 48 ABs
Most will look at Headley and see one homer and 23 runs scored and think – why even bother with this third baseman? In retort I’d point out the following. (1) Headley is hitting .280, a solid mark. He’s also working on a 15-game hitting streak. (2) His OBP is strong at .385. In fact, that’s the best mark of any NL third baseman. (3) He has seven steals. Only two third base eligible players have more – Ryan Roberts and David Wright have nine each. Headley isn’t a difference maker, but he’s a solid add if your lineup needs a boost.

Adam Kennedy – .342-1-8-7-0 in 38 ABs
Kennedy came out of nowhere to hit .289 with 11 homers and 20 steals in 2009 after it seemed like his career was heading off into the sunset. He predictably slumped last year down to .249 with three homers, but he’s back at it again in 2011. The Mariners’ offense is atrocious, so Kennedy should continue to see time until he slows down. The pending call up of Dustin Ackley is a concern, they won’t call him up to have him watch from the bench, but until then Kennedy is a moderate add for those of you who need some batting average help up the middle, and he’s always good for a few thefts.

Miguel Olivo – .350-4-13-7-1 in 40 ABs
Over the last three games he has three homers and seven RBI, and he’s posted a hit in 6-straight to raise his average .012 points. Consistent. That’s what Olivo is. I’ve said and written it before, but here it is again. Over the past five years only two catchers in baseball have 11 homers and 41 RBI each season. They are Brian McCann and Miguel Olivo.

Cliff Pennington – .349-0-3-5-1 in 43 ABs
If you are a Jimmy Rollins or Hanley Ramirez owner you might look this guys way. He’s clearly hitting well, and he’s shown the ability to swipe plenty of bases (he had 29 steals last year). He’s nothing more than a place holder in mixed leagues, but you could do worse in the short-term.

Ruben Tejada – .326-0-8-5-0 in 43 ABs
Limitations are the name of the game here. In 17 games this year he has zero homers. In 95 career games he has only one. In 17 games this year he has zero steals. In 95 games he has only two. He’s also hit a mere .232 in 272 career at-bats. OK, maybe I shouldn’t have mentioned him at all.

Ty Wigginton – .326-3-5-8-0 in 43 ABs
He somehow always goes underrated while somehow getting enough at-bats to blast 20 homers. Ty qualifies at 1B, 3B and 2B in every league, so he is a great guy to have at the end of your bench. When he’s getting regular playing time, like he is now, and is also hitting well, as he has since he returned from injury, then it makes a lot of sense to have him in your starting lineup.

By Ray Flowers