The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 23, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account. Keep em coming ladies and gents.

1st place in saves, up 12 on next guy. Bad idea to drop Neftali Feliz and pick up an SP? I have Craig Kimbrel and Drew Storen as my active RPs.
– @silaPssoR

A 30 save closer gets about five saves a month (there are six months in a season). There are roughly five weeks left in the regular season. Let’s say that equates to seven saves. If you have two guys operating at that level, Kimbrel and Storen certainly have been elite save options, then you  would record 14 saves the rest of the way from that duo even if you let Feliz go (for more on how amazing that Kimbrel has been this season see Best Duo Ever?). Since the fella in second place is 12 saves behind he’s going to have a long way to go to catch you since. I’d say that unless both Kimbrel and Storen crap out (not likely), and unless the guy in second place has four quality saves men on his team, that you would be safe making the move away from Feliz to add a quality starter for the stretch run. Just hope the fella in second doesn’t add Feliz.

Freddy Garcia or Mike Minor ROTW?
– @BobOfBowie

Garcia has had a rather remarkable season for a guy who was left for dead, that is when he isn’t playing with steak knives (he should return to pitch on Saturday for the Yankees). Despite a league average WHIP of 1.31, Garcia has managed to win 10 games while posting a solid 3.16 ERA. He was also on a role allowing three or fewer earned runs in nine of 10 outings before the setback. Still, his K/9 is poor (5.96), his K/BB league average (2.19) and his GB/FB ratio poor (0.90). He simply doesn’t grade out very well when you break down his skills.

Minor has pitched well since being recalled to the bigs. Over his last three outings he has gone 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. More impressively he has racked up 20 Ks and allowed just four walks in those 17.1 innings. Add in his last start in June and he’s struck out 29 against five walks while posting a 2.96 ERA the last four times he’s taken the hill. It’s taking him a while to get going, Brandon Beachy kind of stole his thunder in Atlanta (more on that in a minute), but Minor is starting to flash the skills that made him one of the top left-handed youngsters headed into the season.

Minor is the better arm, the “upside” play that everyone loves to target. However, he’s quite possibly going to lost his spot in the Braves’ rotation. With Jair Jurrjens already back, and Tommy Hanson (shoulder) about a 10 or so days away, Minor doesn’t appear likely to remain a starter. If you need the wins go with Garcia, but realize the better pitcher at this point is actually Minor.

Add Brandon Beachy and drop Ubaldo Jimenez?
– @TheGregFocker

Beachy continues to impress this season. Since July 20th he has made six starts and allowed more than two earned runs just one time. In fact, his ERA in that stretch is 2.48, his WHIP 1.07, his K/9 rate 9.7 and his K/BB ratio is 3.25. He’s clearly locked in right now.

As for Jimenez, yikes. Things weren’t great in Colorado (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but they’ve gone horribly wrong with the Tribe (7.29 ERA, 1.81 WHIP). Over his last six outings he’s allowed fewer than four earned runs just one time. He’s also failed to last more than five innings five times. That’s right, he’s gone more than five innings just once since July 20th. He’s still striking guys out, he has 22 in his last 21 innings, but it’s too little to get excited about at this point.

As much as I want to believe in Ubaldo, to turn to him given his track record and the lack of it with Beachy, there’s simply no objective way that I can say choosing Ubaldo over Brandon right now makes any sense.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Wrap Up

I know it’s a bit late to put a bow on the World Series, but I was out of town at the Arizona Fall League looking at the rookies that will make their mark in the coming campaigns (you can read my thoughts in AFL Impressions). So, before we leave the 2009 baseball season and start looking toward the 2010 campaign, here are some of my closing thoughts on how things played out with the Yankees and the Phillies in the Fall Classic.

The Yankees have won 27 World Series. If you add up team’s #2-4 on the list you end up with a mere total of 26 championships – St. Louis (10), Oakland (nine) and Boston (seven). Moreover, the Yankees ended the third longest drought in franchise history at eight seasons without a championship. The two longer streaks were 17 (1979-95) and 14 (1963-76) seasons. By the way, the Nationals, Rangers, Rays, Mariners, Padres, Brewers, Astros and Rockies are still looking for their first championship.

Cliff Lee became the first pitcher since Don Newcomb in 1949 to have a game of 10 or more strikeouts and zero walks (in fact, he tossed back-to-back such outings in the NLCS and his first series start). In his two starts against the Yankees, Lee struck out 13 batters, walked just three and went 2-0.

Andy Pettitte is the all-time leader in post-season victories with 18. Pettitte also used the 2009 playoffs to become just the third pitcher in history to emerge with a victory in all three clinching games (division series, league championship and World Series). The other hurlers are Derek Lowe in 2004 and Freddy Garcia in 2005. Still, this talk that Pettitte is one of the greatest clutch pitchers of all-time is ludicrous. Sure he leads the way in the win column, but don’t overlook the fact that he has made 40 starts in front of some dominating offenses. Sample size people, look it up if you don’t understand what I’m talking about (Some People Never Learn is a good place to start).

For all this talk that Alex Rodriguez is a choke artist, it may be time to change that broken record. After all, the guy hit .365 with six homers, 18 RBI and 15 runs scored in 15 playoff games. On yeah, he was pretty good at getting on base (.500 OBP) and piling up bases as well (.808 OPS). With this amazing post-season A-Rod how owns a .302/.409/.568 line in 199 post-season at-bats, numbers that are almost an exact duplication of his career line during the regular season (.305/.390/.576).

If you want to talk about chocking under pressure, the very thought of which I find to be complete poppycock – like and MVP performer will suddenly just devolve into a sniveling morass of failure merely because it’s the playoffs – your gaze would have to fall on Ryan Howard. The big fella hit only .174 in 23 at-bats in the Series with a whopping total of 13 strikeouts, the most ever in the World Series. After striking out eight times in his first nine post-season games this year, Howard simply hit a rough patch at the absolute worst time.

Derek Jeter has played 138 post-season games in his career, basically just a bit under a full major league season. How has he done? To the surprise of no one he has been terrific with a .313 average, 20 homers, 55 RBI, 99 runs and 16 steals. Pressure, what pressure?

Hideki Matsui was awarded the World Series MVP in part because of his .615 average (8-for-13), the third highest ever in the Series (Billy Hatcher hit .750 in 1990 while Babe Ruth hit .625 in 1928). Matsui also knocked in eight runs to tie the World Series mark which was, fittingly, last reached by Reggie Jackson in 1978.

And finally I’ll close my coverage by calling on the best post-season closer in history in Mariano Rivera. The Yanks’ closer has posted an amazing 0.99 ERA in 36.1 World Series innings, and shockingly that number is merely 5th amongst guys who have tossed at least 30-innings in the Series. Here are the men who are ahead of him.

0.83 – Harry Brecheen in 32.2 IP
0.87 – Babe Ruth in 31 IP
0.89 – Sherry Smith in 30.1 IP
0.95 – Sandy Koufax in 57 IP

Rivera is tremendous, but he has a ways to go if he wants to match the dominance that Koufax showed, or that of Christy Mathewson who posted an utterly amazing 1.06 mark over 101.2 innings.

By Ray Flowers