FSTA, Pitching & Vacation

For those of you that don’t know, I’m in Chicago for the next couple of days for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Conference. It’s a coming together of the greatest minds in the industry, and me, to touch base, share business thoughts, discuss the direction of the fantasy sports industry, and to enjoy some fun together (I’m not naming names, but some of us may party a little harder than others). While at the event we will also hold the annual FSTA Experts League for Fantasy Football. It’s a 14 team PPR league, and yours truly is drafting 9th (hopefully I’ll have some better luck than I’ve had in the baseball league this season as injuries have beaten me down to 10th place). I’ll certainly try to post some thoughts from the event, but it might be hit or miss (I’m literally going to be in Chicago for less than 48 hours). In fact, this is going to be a mostly Oracle free period of about 10 days. For the first time in literally seven years I’m taking a real vacation. Yes, that is sad – no vacations in seven years. Hey, you have to work hard to get ahead. Here’s my upcoming schedule

Chicago (FSTA Event), Hawaii (beach time, maybe some booze too), San Diego (Wedding – not mine, don’t panic ladies).

I’ll try to come back with a savage tan. What am I saying, I won’t try, I will. I wonder if copious amounts of Vodka & Redbull in Chicago, and tons of Pina Colada’s and Lava Flows in Hawaii will help speed up the tan. I’m willing to try.

On to more pressing matters…

Tony Cingrani may be sent back to the minors as the Reds appear to be hopeful that Johnny Cueto (lat) will be able to return to the rotation for his next turn (Sunday). Cingrani by the way looked really sharp needing just 92 pitches to go seven innings while walking one batter and allowing two runs to the Cubs to improve to 3-0. He was as impressive as Matt Garza was pitiful (nine earned runs in five innings). Nice job rook.

Bryce Harper did not have surgery on his knee. That said, he may or may not be back on the field in June. Harper’s knee injury required a cortisone shot and the ever growing in popularity platelet-rich plasma injection. Harper will wear a brace for the rest of the week before the Nationals decide on the next step.

Kenley Jansen is now the Dodgers’ closer as it should have been from day one. For the second straight season it appears that Jansen will start the year as the setup man and then end up leading his team in saves.

Derek Jeter is visiting a doctor Thursday and he hopes his ankle gets the thumbs up so he can return to full activity. Seems like we’re looking at about six weeks of rehab work for Jeter once he gets thus thumbs up, so late July for a return? So much for Jeter missing the first week of the season this year as reports initially suggested.

Matt Kemp still isn’t running after suffering a setback with his hamstring. He’s not going to be able to return this week. It’s uncertain if he will be back next week either.

I watched Tim Lincecum throw Tuesday, and it was yuck all over again. He threw 4.2 innings and only allowed two runs that were earned (four overall), but man was it terrible. He couldn’t locate his pitches, walked the impossible to walk Starling Marte, and just couldn’t get it done. He has the stuff to get batters out. There is no doubt, none. His secondary stuff is really good (as I keep telling you). The problem continues to be his inability to consistently locate hit pitches. He’s not gone Rick Ankiel on us, but man, brutal. The biggest hit against Lincecum in this outing by the way? How about the bases loaded two run single by — Gerrit Cole. Brutal like I said. As for Cole, he throws hard (he was sitting at 95 and touching 97-98 at times), and he threw strikes (52 of 72 pitches were strikes and he didn’t walk a batter over 6.1 innings). Just like in the minors though, he didn’t generate any strikeouts as he punched out just two batters. Cole left the game without allowing a run, but the Pirates bullpen ended up saddling him with two runs on his record. All and all a great first game, but where are those strikeouts?

Jacob Turner went seven solid innings against the Brewers allowing four run (three earned) while striking out six. Through three starts this year he has a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 and maybe, just maybe, he’ll have some mixed league value in the second half.

Mike Zunino was called up by the Mariners. My thoughts.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas, The FSTA & More

I normally don’t go provocative with my titles, but I almost put “hookers” in the headline. Why is that? No, it’s not because there’s a charge on my American Express card over the weekend, but I was in Vegas for the past few days and there was a ton that went on. There were radio shows, baseball drafts, networking, booze, the aforementioned hookers, an a plethora of good times. I’ll hit on some of the highlights of the event in this piece. In Part II, I’ll break down the FSTA Experts Baseball Draft that took place and tell you how I felt my team turned out. In Part III, I’ll take a look at how others in the draft evaluated players to give you some insights on what the “experts” are thinking when it comes to a host of other players. Here we go.

I arrived on Saturday and went straight to the UNLV campus where I joined Jeff Mans for three hours on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. We rocked it for three hours, pulled the same trick on Sunday as well, and let me tell you the studios there rock. Thanks to Fantasy Alarm, and Jeff in particular, for letting me tag along all weekend with them. They certainly classed me up.

Thanks to Matt Deutsch, program director of SiriusXM. Not only did he and Rob Touzet run a tight ship that made all of the on-site broadcasts we did enjoyable, those two also know how to have a good time when the microphones are off.

Thanks to Kyle Elfrink and Kay Adams, my capable co-hosts. Kay was the belle of the ball, who can blame anyone for thinking that way since she is about four levels above the rest of us in attractiveness, and Kyle just did his thing like he always does – smooth my friend.

I’d like to thanks Mike Beacom an everyone at the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for awarding me the 2011 Best Baseball Series Award. I knew I was one of the three finalists but I thought I had no chance to win, so I made a bet. If I won I would have to carry around my trophy all night. You’d be surprised at how many women weren’t that impressed with the striking trophy, but the right ones were and that is all that counts. A special thanks also goes out to Peter Schoenke of Rotowire.com for nominating me for the award. Finally, thanks to Matthew Berry of ESPN. For some reason he keeps talking up my BaseballGuys’ Twitter Account as something you have to be following. If you aren’t following get on it or Matthew will be coming after you.

Thank you all.

Here are some other highlights, in no particular order, that occurred over the weekend (and yes, names have been altered to protect identities, though the stories are 100 percent accurate).

At some point we ended up at 7-Eleven and bought the king of all fruity drinks – the Blue Hawaiian by Boone’s.

I had no idea that I was such a good dancer. A highlight of the time on the dance floor was when I approached a pretty brunette. I was just about ready to get my “grind on” when an older woman barged in to cut off my path to the beauty. Turned out it was her mom. I’m not an ageist or anything, but how did I end up dancing with a 58 year old woman, in Vegas of all places? I didn’t find out if she wanted to be my sugar momma.

A lady stopped by our table at a club and offered us blow. We declined. That same lady also offered to “party” with us all night if you get my drift. We declined. When she asked us to sign her breast and buttocks with a sharpie, we happily accepted.

A certain person, let’s call him “Jeff,” and I were out at Treasure Island at about 3 AM on Wednesday morning. We were approached, not by one, but by two groups of ladies of the night. I particularly liked it when one of them said, stealing my best line, that ‘I look really good naked.’ Apparently “Jeff” an I looked like desperate marks.

When you find a bar that allows you to enter for $20 dollars and then get free drinks for the next two an a half hours you go in, even if there isn’t a single woman in there that you’d want to spend the night with. We took our own advice and probably had about 25 vodka and Red Bull’s between us.

I had no idea that people play spin the bottle after high school, but apparently when you’re in your 30′s, an in Vegas, you do still play, an in clubs no less. Why does that damn glass, no matter how many times I spin it, ever end up pointing me toward the hot gal? Where was my luck Vegas?

By Ray Flowers

Anatomy of a Draft: Vegas Style

This is the final piece of my three part series reviewing the FSTA Draft that was held in Las Vegas last week (ah, how the good times fade fast don’t they?).

Part I - I gave a review of the team I drafted in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA.

PART II - I discussed why I chose Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki in the first round in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo.

In PART III, thanks to the work of Jason Collette of Dock of the Rays, we have the answer as to who made the best selections in the FSTA Draft compared to the current ADP data (you can see the entirety of Jason’s work in the spreadsheet he put together of the draft). In what follows I’ll discuss some of the key selections that stood out, either players that I got on the cheap or guys I might have reached for according to ADP, and give my thoughts on why I made the decisions that I did.

Carl Crawford (taken 7th, ADP of 16): You can click in the link above for PART II to see why I think Crawford’s current ADP mark is way off.

Jimmy Rollins (taken 33, ADP of 42): The last of the elite shortstops on the board was my second choice with my third round pick with the first one being Ryan Howard (he was taken 32nd). For my thoughts on Rollins see Top-10 SS for 2011.

Brandon Phillips (59 taken , ADP of 35): A nice value given where he was drafted, and because he was the last of the top shelf second sackers left on the board. Coming off a “down” year he still scored 100 runs, hit 18 homers, stole 16 bags and batted .275. I’ll take a repeat of that while knowing that he went .276-20-98-78-25 in 2009.

Aramis Ramirez (taken 85, ADP of 104): Aramis is scaring some people off with his down 2010 effort that included a bunch of time on the shelf (he had just 465 at-bats). Would it surprise you to know that he still had 25 homers, the same total as Ryan Zimmerman and three more than Evan Longoria? Heck, his RBI total of 83 was only two less than Zimmerman and Mark Reynolds.

Dan Haren (taken 98, ADP of 52): The steal of the draft? I almost took Haren in the 6th round, then the 7th, before finally selecting him in the 8th. From 2008-10, Haren is only of only three hurlers to win at least 12 games, with an ERA under 3.95 and at least 200 Ks each season. The others are two pretty strong hurlers – Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

Joakim Soria (taken 111, ADP of 78): Drafting at this point of the year is tricky, you don’t even know who the 9th inning arm will be for some clubs, and that was reflected in the draft as most of the experts waited on taking their first closer. I still remember being burned last year when I took Joe Nathan early “knowing” he was a lock for 35 saves. Hopefully this call works out better.

Aaron Hill (taken 124, ADP of 180): I needed power, so I’m not worried about having overshot Hill’s ADP by so much. With guys like Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts and Howie Kendrick the best options left on the board at second, and already having a roster loaded with speedy guys, I needed pop and Hill was the best option left to fill that need. After all, Hill is second at the second base position the last two years with 62 homers and third with 176 RBI.

Carlos Lee (taken 163, ADP of 132): A solid choice for two reasons. First, he also qualifies at first base giving me some depth behind Prince Fielder and another option as a corner infielder. Second, while his bat is slowing, Lee still hit 24 homers with 89 RBI last season. That makes it 11-straight years with 24 homers and at least 80 RBI.

James Shields (taken 189, ADP of 173): He might have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball last year. Shields went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA despite a career best K/9 mark of 8.28 and a superb K/BB ratio of 3.67. If things normalize he should be back on track and that means posting an ERA of about 4.00 with a 1.25 WHIP and about 175 Ks, a point I made, in depth, in Breaking Down: James Shields.

Scott Baker (taken 228, ADP of 183): He may never put it all together, but we’ve all have a crush on someone that doesn’t really make sense (I don’t even want to hear who some of you have fantasies about). Still, I can’t help but think if he ever put it all together that he could be a difference maker. If we take the best numbers of career and combine them we end up with 15 wins, a 3.45 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 162 Ks.

Carlos Zambrano (taken 241, ADP of 331): I guess no one is buying his unbelievable finish to 2010 (8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 Ks over 74 IP)? There are valid concerns about his workload and his absolutely bonkers personality, but the guy can still pitch when he’s healthy and motivated.

Ryan Madson (taken 280, ADP of 400): One of the best right-handed setup men in baseball. Madson is second in line to take over the 9th inning in Philadelphia, and you can argue that he is coming off his best season with career bests in K/9 (10.87), BB/9 (2.21), K/BB (4.92) and WHIP (1.04). Now if he can just avoid trying to beat things up when he is angry.

Nate McLouth (taken 293, ADP of 400): The man gets no respect. The Braves say he will open the year as the starter in CF, he is just 29 years old, and he went 26/23 in 2008 and 20/19 in 2009. You can hear more of my thoughts on McLouth in Around the Horn: January 21, 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo

I’m still hearing some snickers about my decision to roster Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki with the 7th overall selection in the FSTA Draft that was just held in Las Vegas (for a review of my squad click on the link to Vegas Baby, and the FSTA). I still think it was the right decision, so I thought I would lay out my thoughts on the matter to show why I shouldn’t be castigated by the masses for taken the speedster over the shortstop.

(1) Crawford is as consistent as any performer in the game. Not only is he consistent from year to year, his performance is elite. At Fanball there is a tool called the Player Rater which we use to rank players fantasy value in any given season. Here is a review of where Crawford ranked amongst hitters over the past seven years using the following parameters: a 12-team mixed league using standard 5×5 scoring with 14 hitters, nine pitchers and a $260 salary cap (based on a 67/33 split of spending on hitters and pitchers).

2004: 13th overall, $25.17
2005: 10th overall, $29.44
2006: 6th overall, $31.31
2007: 11th overall, $29.03
2008: 104th overall, $8.77 (he was limited to just 109 games played)
2009: 4th overall, $33.58
2010: 3rd overall, $37.86

You can click on the following link to find the actual Player Rater Tool.

Honestly, I almost feel like I can end the debate on who I should have taken 7th overall with just those numbers. It’s alright if you admit that you are shocked by those totals by the way. Since 2004, I defy you to find a more consistently excellent player than Crawford (other than Albert Pujols of course). In his last six healthy seasons, Crawford has been no worse than the 13th best offensive performer in the fantasy game. Moreover, if we remove his injury shortened 2008 effort we find that his average “finish” in his last six healthy seasons is 7.8. What pick did I take Crawford again? Oh yeah, #7.

(2) Crawford will be a part of an excellent offense in Boston. It’s not like Crawford’s teammates in Florida were terrible by any means, but the Red Sox work pitchers about as hard as any offense in baseball. Plus, Crawford should love slapping balls off the Green Monster which means we should set the floor at .300 for his average. After all, Fenway was the best park in the American League last year in terms of hitting doubles according to Bill James’ Park Indices (it was 22% above “average” in the category).

(3) Speed kills. Crawford is pretty much a mortal lock for 45 steals having hit that mark in each of the seven seasons in his career in which he played at least 140 games. If he can stay healthy you can book the steals. Unlike others who slap the ball around the field and run like the dickens (guys like Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis and Michael Bourn - the only men in the game who exceeded or matched Crawford’s steal total of 47 in 2010), Crawford also has some pop. He’s never hit 20 homers but he has averaged 15 homers a season his last five healthy years. Last year Pierre, Gardner, Davis and Bourn hit a combined 13 homers.

(4) I know Tulowitzki plays shortstop, and there is something to be said for position scarcity, but his track record isn’t enough to prove to me that he deserves to be a top-10 option – despite the generally prevailing wisdom that says he not only should be a top-10 guy but that he could even be a top-5 overall option. Consider the following points.

(A) Twice in the last three seasons Tulowitzki has failed to play even 125 games. Remember, only once in eight years has Crawford failed to appear in 140 games.

(B) As talented as Tulowitzki is, I worry a bit about his performance. The last two seasons Tulo has produced line drive rates of 18.4 and 15.0 percent. The big league average is about 19-20 percent. I’m not saying Tulowitzki won’t continue to hit around .300, but there aren’t many guys in the game that hit .300 with line drive rates that low.

(C) Tulo doesn’t strike out too much, his career K-rate is 19.1 percent, but he also doesn’t walk too much either (9.5 percent BB-rate). Again, this isn’t a condemnation of Tulo, but a 0.56 BB/K mark for his career isn’t terrific. A little more patience at the dish would serve him well.

(D) As great as Tulo was last year to end the season when he hit .323 with 18 homers and 61 RBI over his last 60 games, he was merely really good over his first 62 games (.306-9-34). Are you certain he isn’t the first half guy? There is nothing wrong with a .300-20-80 season from a shortstop, but you don’t draft a guy in the top-10 is those are the numbers you expect.

To me, the decision to take Crawford over Tulowitzki was a no brainer. You can talk position scarcity all you want with Tulo, and it is certainly a valid point, but I would counter that with Crawford’s consistently excellent stolen base marks. I’d also fall back on the main point I made at the start of this piece – Carl Crawford has been an elite performer in six of the past seven seasons, and when I say elite there is no hyperbole involved. Tulo may one day get to that level, but for now this battle royale between Crawford and Tulowitzki ends with CC scoring a knockout in the 7th round.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers