Daily Joust – Wk 20: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Coco Crisp (+28, $110,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The numbers aren’t very good. Oh the 26 steals are nice, but the .252 average and 42 runs runs scored are pretty boring. Still, someone has been swinging a good stick of late. Not only did Coco have a homer and five RBIs Sunday, he’s got 11 RBIs and 11 runs scored in August. Going a bit further back he has hit .282 with 17 RBIs and 19 runs scored over his last 27 games. Oh, and I’ve left out the best part. He’s running. A lot. After swiping 16 bags in the first half of the season he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 27 trips to the field including six in his last 15 games. He won’t get to the 49 steals he had last season but he’s just four steals from a 3rd straight season with 30 base thefts.

Gavin Floyd (+34, $240K)
Boring but stable. That could be the name on the back of Floyd’s jersey. One victory from his 10th, that would give him double-digit victories in 5-straight seasons, his ERA would be a five year high at 4.43, as would his WHIP at 1.38, but he’s pitched better than that of late, much better. Over his last nine outings he’s gone 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA. Now he’s still sporting a 1.43 WHIP, and his K/BB ratio has been 1.60 over those 57.1 innings, so it’s not like everything’s fantastic in his world.

Aaron Hill (+28, $116K)
Hill is on the cusp of some pretty impressive numbers. Hitting .298 with 17 homers and nine steals, that’s pretty darn close to a .300, 20/10 season, and that’s darn impressive don’t cha think? Over his last three games Hill has seven hits, including three homers, that have led to five RBIs and six runs scored. Hill has been pretty darn consistent as well. In 82 games during the first half of the season he hit .300 with a .355 OBP and .505 SLG. In 34 games in the second half of the season he’s hit .293 with a .349 OBP an a .496 SLG. That will play.

Chris Young (+24, $103K)
Young started out as just about the hottest hitter in the league (he hit .410 with five homers over his first 11 games). He then hit .158 in May, was hurt, hit .143 in June and he basically disappeared from fantasy relevant. This started to turn around a bit in July, he went deep four times with four steals, and he’s finally looking more Young-like. Over his last 28 games Young is hitting .270 with a .363 OBP and .539 SLG. That’s a .902 OPS over 28 games. Pretty good don’t ya think? He’s also hit five homers, scored 15 runs, knocked 16 in and has stolen four bases. Finally (he still only owned in 58 percent of leagues at Fleaflicker).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

R.A. Dickey (-39, $402K)
The best value in the game on the hill this season, Dickey has had an amazing season with 15 victories, a 2.89 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 175 Ks, in 168.1 innings mind you (a phenomenal number for a knuckleballer really). Things have taken a downturn of late though. Over his last eight outings he’s gone 3-3 with an ERA of 4.10 an a WHIP of 1.30. Given his career numbers of 4.09 and 1.34, those second half numbers certainly aren’t at all shocking. At least he’s still striking batters out with more than one an inning. Tremendous season no matter what happens from here out, but the best is likely behind him.

Eric Hosmer (-17, $60K)
There are three first basemen who have gone 10/10 this year – Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion and Hosmer. It’s a small victory for Hosmer who continues to struggle. His batting average is up .010 points from the first half. It’s still just .241. His OBP is up .024 points in the second second half. It still just .323. His OPS though is down two points in the second half at .668 as he’s hit only two homers with four doubles and a triple in 36 games. It’s going to end up being a completely lost season. Let’s just hope he catches fire to give him some confidence to build on for 2013.

Carlos Lee (-16, $88K)
With 57 RBIs, Lee is going to have to kick things up a bit to reach 80 RBIs for the 14th season (he has driven in 28 in his last 37 games). He’s hit that number each of the 13 seasons of his career. Lee is also hitting .286 which just so happens to be an exact match for his career mark. Hitting .297 the past 37 games, Lee has also walked more than he has struck out (19 to 15). The real issue with Lee is his total lack of pop. Lee has hit three homers since the start of June, that’s three long balls in 59 games. For a guy who has hit at least 18 homers each of the past 12 years, that’s pretty embarrassing.

Kevin Youkilis (-21, $59K)
In 42 games with the Red Sox he hit .233 with four homers and 14 RBIs. In 44 games with the White Sox he has only hit .241, but his OPS is more than .120 points up (.814), and he’s driven in 29 runners in 44 games. Youkilis is only hitting .195 over his last 31 games though and he’s also dealing with a sore knee and an arm injury. He continues to battle through, but injuries have been a huge detriment this year.

NFL DAILY CONTEST – CRUSADER SEASON LONG LEAGUES

“Daily Joust is taking season-long leagues to a whole new level by announcing the Crusader Season Long Fantasy Football Leagues. Each Crusader League has a 12 man entry field for the NFL season. Each Crusader League will have a $110 entry and $1,150 prize pool with $600 awarded to the overall winner.”

Does that sound interesting to you? It should.

Each week of the season you draft a team. Each week. You take Arian Foster in Week 1 and he blows out a knee. Don’t worry. You can pick up Ben Tate in Week 2. If Matt Ryan under performs, you can just go out an add Eli Manning. How interesting does that sound?

For more information on the tournament, check out the 12 Man Crusader Leagues link.

And don’t forget, when you want to sign up, use the DailyJoust/BaseballGuys page.

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 21, 2011

There are only days left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season. With that fact, let’s look forward to 2012 with today’s mailbag piece from questions that were submitted at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Is Melky Cabrera a top-20 OF going into 2012 season and is he worthy of a keeper spot in 16 team league (keeping eight)?
– @JakobMD

This will likely be a hot button question for many heading into 2012, so why not address it in 2011.

Coming into the 2011 season, Cabrera was one of those guys that you weren’t overly happy to have as your fourth or fifth outfielder in a 12 team mixed leagues. He wasn’t going to kill you you any category, but he also wasn’t going to a big help. In fact, the best 5×5 numbers that he posted from 2005-10 would lead you to a season of .280-13-73-75-13. Again, those aren’t horrible numbers, but nothing in that line really pops. In addition, his slash line of .267/.328/.379 from 2005-10 was actually worse than the league average of .269/.337/.425. He just wasn’t anything other than average.

This year that’s changed. Cabrera is two homers away from going 20/20, and he’s also hitting a career best .305. Mind you, he’d only hit better than .275 once, and had never hit 15 homers or stolen 15 bases in a season. One of the reasons for that counting category growth is that he’s posted a whopping 686 plate appearances, 158 more than he averaged from 2005-10. When a guy racks up 700 plate appearances he’s going to have solid counting numbers.

The real question I have is has he shown any skills growth? Let’s take a look.

This year his line drive rate is 20.5 percent. His career mark is 19.4 percent.
This year his ground ball rate is 47.1 percent. His career mark is 48.7 percent.
This year his fly ball rate is 32.4 percent. His career mark is 31.9 percent.

Nothing has changed there.

This year his walk rate is 4.8 percent. Not only is that well below his career rate of 7.4 percent, it’s also a career worst.

This year his K-rate is 13.3 percent. Not only is that worse than his career mark of 12.0, it’s also a career worst.

Those are not changes for the good.

This year Cabrera has a BABIP mark of .330. The owner of a career mark of .298, Cabrera’s BABIP has been under that .298 mark in each of his previous four seasons.

This year his HR/F ratio is 10.2 percent. That’s certainly not a crazy number, but it’s 40 percent higher than his 7.0 career rate. This will also mark only the second season of his career with a mark above his 7.0 percent career rate.

So what does all of that mean? It means that the reason that Cabrera has been so impressive this year is a little luck (BABIP, HR/F) and a big time result of all of his plate appearances. Throw in a declining walk rate and a rising K-rate, and the smart money would be on Cabrera failing to duplicate his 2011 efforts next season. Given that, I simply cannot suggest to anyone that Cabrera has a legitimate shot at being a top-20 outfielder in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be kept if 128 players are being protected in your league.

Thanks for the great advice and info. Came in 2nd in my 12T H2H league. Quick Q: Why do you prefer roto over H2H?
– @samuelrsantana

There are so many reasons why baseball should be rotisserie over head to head (H2H), let me count the ways.

(1) Baseball is a marathon with 162 games. H2H turns that marathon into a sprint. If you’re looking for the fantasy game to somewhat approximate the on field product, then the fantasy game should operate as a mirror image of that actual game. In baseball that means you should play a season of 1-162 games played, not some artificially contrived session of a weekly match up. Let me give you a concrete example of why this is in point #2.

(2) We all know that Albert Pujols will hit .300-30-100 (he’s on the cusp of doing it for the 11th straight season to start his career). However, we really have no idea when he will go deep, when he will produce hits, and when he will knock runners in. If you’re playing in a H2H match up what happens if Pujols hits .450 with three homers and 10 RBI? You’ll likely win that week. What happens though if he hits .150 with no homers and no RBI the following week? You would likely loose that week. Still, if Pujols followed this path, alternating greatness with putrid work, he’d end the year batting .300 with something like 39 homers and 130 RBI. That’s a phenomenal season, right? However, in H2H he’d be a killer to your club in those 13 weeks that he disappeared. Baseball is about consistency and working through the grind as much as anything. When you play H2H you remove that aspect of the game completely.

(3) Would you ever draft Gavin Floyd over Dan Haren? That’s like saying you would prefer to cuddle up with Cate Blanchett over Brooklyn Decker? However, there are scenarios where you would end up starting Floyd over Haren simply because you’re looking at one week segments (there is no scenario in which Cate would be the choice over Brooklyn). What if Haren was facing the Yankees and Floyd was pitching in Seattle and Oakland – would you start Floyd because he was a two start pitcher on the road, where he has success, in two parks that favor the hurler? Even worse, would you start a guy like Rick Porcello or Luke Hochevar over Haren if they had two starts? The answer is you might, and we’ve all made that decision at one point or another. However, does this make any sense? Of course it doesn’t.  We’re sometimes “forced” to go with an inferior pitcher merely because we need the starts to keep up with our opponent in the H2H format. In this instance we’re not rewarding the fantasy owner who rostered the players with the best skill, we’re merely rewarding those that were first two the waiver-wire to add a 2-start pitcher. There isn’t any skill in that.

I’m just going to say it: H2H has infected baseball because of it’s proliferation in fantasy football. It’s one of the worst trends to hit fantasy baseball – ever. If you want to go soft and set your lineup once a week, I can live with that. However, if you want to make baseball a one week match up against an opponent you’re bastardizing the game of baseball completely.

There, I said it.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

K-BAD 2011: PART III

In Part III of my review of the K-BAD experts draft at KFFL, I’ll wrap things up by breaking down my final eight selections and then giving a quick review of the squad I assembled. Here are some links that are pertinent to the piece as well.

K-BAD HOMEPAGE

PART I – Selections 1-10
PART II - Selections 11-20.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 21-8: Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
s a 5th outfielder, as long as he is healthy, Soriano should be fine. Looking at the available options, I just didn’t see many who could hit 25 homers while scoring/knocking in 90.

Round 22-5: Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox
I almost pulled the trigger on Floyd in the 20th round, so I pretty much had to take him in the 22nd. People always seem to neglect Floyd who has been stable, and pretty darn good the past two years.

Round 23-8: Brandon League, RP, Mariners
I’m not at all convinced that David Aardsma will be healthy and/or effective (he’s likely to miss the start of the year coming back from hip surgery). I wrote about this situation in A Hip that Makes You Hop.

Round 24-5: Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates
Honestly, this is a total shot in the dark. He’s the only catcher left on the board who I think could go .270-15-60, though he’ll need a trade to get anywhere close to that. He could be the first player I dump.

Round 25-8: James Loney, 1B, Dodgers
Boring, but I needed a corner infield option, and I certainly didn’t want to take Chipper Jones. Loney has little upside, but he does have 268 RBI the last three years which is, shockingly, seven more than Paul Konerko.

Round 26-5: Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
I wanted to bolster my pitching staff, but there are a handful of starters and relievers still available who I could go with, so I backed up my weakest hitting position by adding this speedster (my other SS is Jason Bartlett).

Round 27-8: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
Best pitcher, skill wise, left amongst relievers. Still, I gave heavy consideration to Jake McGee who could close for Rays and Clay Hensley as a handcuff to my ealier selection of Leo Nunez.

Round 28-5: Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
I wanted to add depth in the outfield with my last pick and also gave a thought to calling out Roger Bernadina, Alex Gordon or David DeJesus (though DD was taken the pick before me).

REPORT CARD

* This team has lots of speed. Pierre should push 50 steals, Upton should get 40, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see McCutchen go for at least 30. I’m also expecting 15 from guys like Utley, Braun, Bartlett and Zobrist. Barring injury, I should win this category.

* My average might be lacking a bit since I took Dunn and Reynolds. Still, they are about as powerful a 1B/3B combo as anyone could hope to have. Yadier Molina usually has a decent average versus other catchers, and Utley, Braun and Kendrick should hit .300 to keep me respectable here – I hope.

* The power of this club is strong. I should get at least 70 bombs from Dunn and Reynolds, and if I don’t get at least 60 from Braun and Utley I’d be surprised. Zobrist, Lee, Upton, McCutchen and Soriano should all also hit 20.

* On the hill, saves are a bit of a question. Soria is a star as my anchor, and Hanrahan was named the Pirates’ closer two days after I drafted him which certainly helps. If Nunez can hold on to his strikeout and ground ball gains from last season, I could have three solid closers. I also expect League to start off as the closer with Aardsma coming back from injury, and Madson is just one pitch away from an injury to Brad Lidge to being called on in the 9th inning for the Phillies.  Maybe this unit isn’t a bad as I thought.

* At the top Sabathia and Hanson are a dynamic 1-2 punch, and I’ll take Billingsley as a #3 in any league. If things come together for Nolasco he will be the best 4th SP in the league, and guys like Baker and Floyd give me a strong top-6. Still, I do regret going against my normal tradition of waiting on pitching. Even though I took two SPs in the first seven rounds I’m not convinced that my team is appreciably better than it would have been if I had waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler.

Every team has a weakness, but overall I really like the way this draft played out. I picked up a bunch of the players that I targeted, so if everyone stays healthy I should be in line for another top-3 finish… but there is a whole of baseball that has to be played before we’ll know for sure how I did.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag – May 14th

I’m in a 12-team head-to-head mixed league and my pitching has been horrendous, to say the least, to start the season. I thought it would be one of my strengths, but so far my players just haven’t lived up to expectations. We start a typical 5-man rotation and I have Verlander, Beckett, Kazmir, Floyd, Zambrano and Niemann as my mainstays. I’ve also been playing some matchups with Wade LeBlanc and Brett Myers and have added some solid arms in Colby Lewis and Derek Holland. I’m not too concerned about Beckett, but Kazmir looks very hittable and Floyd has just been plain awful. I’m also not sure if Zambrano will ever find his way back into the starting rotation. Do you think I need to make a move for another more reliable arm or will my rotation improve enough to allow me to compete?
– Mike, Boston, MA

Well Mike, I have to compliment you on rostering a tremendous group of arms. Obviously not all of these arms are currently on your roster, but I thought I would run through the 10 arms mentioned and give my quick thoughts on each before giving my recommendation.

Justin Verlander: A top of the rotation hurler. Verlander routinely throws high 90′s gas late into games, is currently sporting a solid 8.51 K/9 mark, and has allowed four earned runs in his last four starts.

Josh Beckett: His back issue seems minor. As for his performance, I have no idea where his .365 BABIP has come from (career .303), nor his inability to locate his pitches early on (his 3.51 BB/9 mark would be his worst mark since 2003 and is three-quarters of a batter above his career rate of 2.76). I think he should be fine and is a great buy low candidate – provided he is healthy.

Scott Kazmir: Will get at least one more shot at staying in the rotation for the Angels, but his performance has been troubling. His fastball speed is 90.1 mph, a career low, and the third straight year of a mph decrease. His vaunted slider? That one is down to 79.4. It was 84 mph in 2006. You cannot have success with a 1.26 K/BB mark.

Gavin Floyd: He has a 6.92 ERA but his Fielder Independent Pitching ERA (FIP) is just 4.16. The problem this year has been the walk (3.69 compared to a mark below 3.10 each of the past three years) and the fact that his BABIP rate is .371 (career .296). He is primed for a turnaround.

Carlos Zambrano: Will remain in the pen for now, but I would be shocked if that lasted all year (Carlos Silva and/or Tom Gorzelanny will eventually fail). In 27 innings this season Big Z has 32 Ks (10.67 K/9) and his current 2.67 K/BB mark is a career best. All of this has occurred despite and absurd .482 BABIP mark (career .283).

Jeff Niemann: More of what we saw last season. He won’t maintain his current ratios (2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP), not with the same K/BB (2.15 this year vs. 2/12 last year), HR/9 (0.82 vs. 0.85) and GB/FB (1.06 and 1.03) rate as last year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to match his marks of last season.

Wade LeBlanc: He simply doesn’t have the stuff to sustain his early success (1.61 ERA, 7.39 K/9), but he also shouldn’t be saddled with his current WHIP of 1.46. He has balanced out his massive .356 mark by not allowing a single home run and is a solid depth arm at the back of a rotation, though not someone you want to start in all matchups.

Brett Myers: It may not always be pretty with Myers, but in seven starts he has four “quality starts” and every time out he has gone at least six innings. He’s had success by throwing strikes (his 2.54 BB/9 mark would be a career best) and by not being beaten like a piñata deep (0.78 HR/9 versus a career mark of 1.33).

Colby Lewis: His return to the States has gone swimmingly with a 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.66 K/9 mark. You’d have to think he has been a bit fortunate given his 7.8 HR/F mark, .273 BABIP and 0.79 HR/9, but it has been a wonderful first seven starts with the Rangers.

Derek Holland: The arm of the future for the Rangers, Holland had a great first outing in which he held the A’s scoreless for six innings. He has the stuff to be successful for a decade, and it looks like the Rangers might move Matt Harrison to the bullpen to allow Holland to remain in the rotation.

To review:

Verlander is a horse.
Floyd and Beckett should rebound and be just fine.
Kazmir seems done.
Niemann is a nice arm to hold on to.
Zambrano – sooner or later I’m assuming he returns to starting.
LeBlanc is only a spot starter.
Myers is a solid depth arm.
Lewis is bringing the heat, but you might want to sell high.
Holland has tons of potential, but will he reach it in 2010?

By Ray Flowers

The Resurgence of Zito

Castigated the world over as the worst free agent signing since Kevin Brown or Mike Hampton, the Giants’ Barry Zito will never be able to live up to his $126 million deal. However, that doesn’t mean you should throw Zito into the garbage bin like some mere bit of refuse. OK, I’m a Giants fan so I’m a bit biased, but in this case there clearly is support for the contention that Zito really hasn’t been as bad as you think he has been this season. In fact, since the All-Star break, is it possible that Zito has been the best Giants starter, better than Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain? Let’s take a look at the three hurlers performances since the break.

Lincecum: 2-2, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 57.2 IP
Cain: 2-2. 2.53 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 53.1 IP
Zito: 3-2, 2.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 42 IP

Granted there is a lot more to look at with a pitcher than the few numbers I tossed out there, but the point is clearly made; Zito has pitched as well as the Giants “aces” since the All-Star break, a fact that appears to have been lost on almost everyone in the game. I mean a 2.36 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP is some serious pitching folks, and though we are only talking about seven starts, Zito has been better in those seven appearances than Cain has been this season (2.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Looking for some more data? How about this.

Over the past 30 days —

Zito has a 2.51 ERA, the 10th best mark in baseball and better than guys like Jon Lester (2.70), Johan Santana (3.19) and CC Sabathia (3.35).

Zito has a 3.43 K/BB ratio better than guys like Lincecum (3.29) and Zack Greinke (3.27).

Zito has a 1.12 WHIP better than Gavin Floyd (1.18), John Lackey (1.24) and Tommy Hanson (1.24) to name a few.

Obviously, Zito is trending in the right direction and doing so with resounding vigor.

Should you be surprised by this? Well yes, if you are one of the thousands who castigate the Giants and Zito on a daily basis because of the fact that he can burn dollar bills in the fireplace for the rest of his life and never run out of money. Still, history shows us that Mr. Zito is usually a much better pitcher in the second half after the All-Star break. Here are the career numbers.

Pre Break: 58-66, 4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.65 K/BB
Post Break: 73-38, 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.91 K/BB

Moreover, Zito has posted the best number of his career in August with a 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 58 games and his career record in September is 24-12.

Does all of this mean that Zito is better than Cain or Lincecum? What you think, I dropped some acid this morning before writing this piece? The point is that Zito has been really, really good of late and that his career record supports the position that he may indeed be a valuable fantasy part the rest of the way. Give the guy a break, it’s not like you would turn down $126 million if someone offered it to you, so don’t wish the guy ill simply because he was smart enough to sign the outrageous deal. Look at the numbers – they say that Zito should be rostered in mixed leagues and counted on for the rest of 2009.

By Ray Flowers