Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

Eye of the Beholder

Monday was a bit of a slow day for news, but I still was able to ferret a couple stories that I found interesting, and if a guy as interesting as me though the stories had some merit, i.e. interest, well then you can take it to the bank – they are some darn interesting storylines.

Randy Johnson will head to the DL with a strained throwing shoulder. There still isn’t definitive news on how long he will be out, but the fear is that it will be much longer than 15 days (the hope right now is for him to return in about three weeks). What that means is that the Giants will likely have to turn back to Jonathan Sanchez, a potentially dangerous situation given his often profound struggles this season (5.94 BB/9, 1.48 K/BB, 1.69 WHIP). Still, the guy has no-hit stuff, if he could ever control it.

Tim Lincecum is quite possibly the most exciting mound presence since Pedro Martinez in his prime. The flowing hair, the stuff, the presence and the stare that says “I’m going to come right at you and there is nothing you can do about it” – the kid is the stuff of legend. Adding to the visceral feel of his presence are the dominating numbers he has produced in his short career. Through 75 starts Lincecum is 34-12, good enough for a .739 winning percentage. As a result, he is just the tenth pitcher in baseball history , since 1900 anyway, to produce a winning percentage that high through his first 75 starts. As flat out dominating as he has been, would it surprise to learn that Tim Hudson was even better through his first 75 starts with an amazing 43-13 record, good enough for a .768 winning percentage?

Rick Porcello will have his nest start skipped meaning he won’t appear again until after the All-Star break. Nothing is wrong, the team is just playing it safe with their future star so that they can avoid burning him out as he has already tossed 87 effective innings (8-6, 4.14 ERA). “We always said all along we were going to pick our spots to protect him,” manager Jim Leyland said. “It has nothing to do with yesterday’s performance, I can tell you that. … To be honest with you, I’m sure he doesn’t like it, but it’s what we’re going to do to protect him.” Smart moves like this mean that the Tigers really have Porcello’s long-term interests in mind (of course they are being selfish too because they obviously don’t want to burn out their future All-Star).

So much for the Chris Ray is going to close for the Orioles when they eventually trade George Sherrill line of thought. Ray, who has been miserable this season with a 9.28 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP, has been placed on the DL with right biceps tendonitis. At this point we have no idea how long he will be out (the club is hopeful it won’t take more than three weeks), but with his ineffectiveness and now injury, the team would be crazy to count on Ray in the second half. Jim Johnson owners in AL only leagues rejoice – you might pick up a few saves after all.

Mark Teixeira is hitting just .243 with a .800 OPS on the road. He is also hitting just .257 without a single long ball in 18 games. Amazing how a guy who is this consistent year-to-year can be so streaky within a season.

There was a report from ESPN that the Braves and Brewers were discussing a potential deal for Javier Vazquez. Really? When I heard that I thought to myself that on the surface that seemed like one stupid rumor. Good to know that my “spider-sense” was dead on as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came out later in the day saying that the rumored deal was pure bolder dash. Sometimes I think that these guys just make up stories on slow news day. Still, it wasn’t a totally useless fishing expedition as the rumor did help to draw to the surface the recent comments of Ryan Braun. “Regardless of the reasons, we’ve got to find a way to throw the ball a little bit better for us to have success. When you’re constantly behind in games, it’s not easy and not fun.” How accurate was Braun’s analysis? The Brewers are currently 13th in the NL in ERA (4.47), tied for seventh in WHIP (1.39) and 11th in K/BB (1.96). They certainly could use an arm or two in that starting rotation.

By Ray Flowers

Give Me a Break

Most of the time I offer straight analysis. I figure data is data and I can analyze that and let it lead me to whatever conclusion is warranted. For those of you who read my work, I hope you not only see that directive in my work, but that you also enjoy the fact that I try to objectively analyze the situations I review. On the flip side, those who know me personally know me to be quick with the tongue, biting with my criticism, and far from shy about voicing a minority view point (thanks Mom and Dad for that for that inner confidence). In what follows I will present my normal analysis of a couple of players, and to that I will add a couple of personal diatribes. I’ll leave you to figure out which is which – I’m sure it’s pretty obvious.

Astros manager Cecil Cooper will not be receiving a vote of confidence from the front office after his club has lost seven games in a row. “I’ve been a GM now for 10 years…” GM Ed Wade said. “I don’t get into votes of confidence. I don’t think there’s any value to it.” Way to go Ed, I totally agree with you. Cooper should just do his job and the results will speak for themselves. Talk about being pampered with kid gloves. I don’t know about you, but if I continually spelled words wrong, missed my deadlines and offered poor analysis, you think I would be allowed to keep my job? A vote of confidence? What are you, six years old? Do your flipping job – if you need a pat on the back telling you that you did a good job I hear there is an opening in Mrs. Johnson’s kindergarten class. Maybe you can get a smiling face if you do really well too. Goodness gracious. I guess the millions of dollars everyone involved with sports makes isn’t enough. No, I’m not at all bitter, why do you ask?

Tom Glavine, yes he is still pitching, tossed five scoreless innings on Thursday in Triple-A. He wasn’t throwing very hard, most of his fastball were between 83 and 86 mph in the outing, but the zeros are zeros regardless of the speed of the pitch. Pretty amazing that a guy who can barely throw harder than I can continues to get batters out. Do I ever wish I was left-handed.

Brett Myers may be forced to go under the knife to repair his injured right hip which apparently involved some fraying, and possible tearing, of his labrum in his hip. Myers continues to confound with his astronomical HR/9 mark of 2.40. Myers has actually struggled all across the board this season with a 4.66 ERA, a 6.50 K/9 and a 2.30 K/BB mark, all of which would be five year worst’s. An injury seems as good a reason as anything else to explain his struggles.

Chris Ray has been demoted to Triple-A to find out why the heck he has been so ineffective this season. I went into the issue in a bit of depth earlier today, so I wont rehash those facts here, you can read about it by simply clicking on the link to my BABIP Piece. Guess the Orioles didn’t read what I had to say before they made the decision to demote him. Ray will be back at some point, and I still wouldn’t be at all surprised to see George Sherrill traded as we get closer to the deadline. Therefore, I would still recommend holding on to Ray in all AL-only leagues, and he should be kept on your watch list in deep mixed leagues as well despite the demotion.

Carlos Zambrano was suspended for six games by MLB on Thursday for his tirade the other day. He will miss one start as a result. It’s amazing that a guy who is 27 years old, he will be 28 on next Monday if you believe that birth certificate number (I don’t), continues to have such a fantastic lack of self control akin to Sean Avery in the NHL. That act of Zambrano’s will grow really old, really quickly, if his production continues to dwindle as it has early on this season as he has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in his eight starts despite a solid 8.45 K/9 mark that would be a three year high. Shameful lack of control really no matter if he’s an All-Star or not. Make sure your kid doesn’t idolize this rotund buffoon.

By Ray Flowers

At What Cost?

Every team needs saves. Some take the chance on draft day and roster “locks” like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, while others take the chance on guys with good skills that have yet to prove themselves (names like Frank Francisco, Joey Devine and Chad Qualls). Others wait to roster closer off of the waiver-wire knowing full well that saves can be had, in standard 12 team leagues, virtually all season via free agency. In fact, according to our friends at Baseball HQ, roughly 1/3 to ½ of all closers who open the year as their teams top ninth inning ace failed to return even 50% of their draft day value by seasons end (that means if you spent $20 on a reliever he would be just as likely to earn $20 as he would be to earn $10 or less in production). Think that’s off the mark? Just look at names that little last years save leaders and think back as to how many of these guys could have been had off waivers in the month of April, 2008.

George Sherrill- 31 saves
Salomon Torres- 28
Ryan Franklin- 17
Fernando Rodney-13
Dan Wheeler- 13
Jensen Lewis- 13
Brad Ziegler- 11

My bet is that every one of those guys were available in your league last April.

The point is that guys with saves can certain be found on waivers, in fact early season breakout candidates in this realm include the likes of Ryan Franklin (seven), and Fernando Rodney (six). The question becomes, how much do you spend on guys if you are in a league that uses free agent acquisition budget’s (FAAB) and your are looking at in season moves? Here are my thoughts on the four biggest names that were likely picked up weekend.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros
With Jose Valverde likely to miss at least four weeks with a calf injury, Hawkins will likely hold down the ninth inning for the Astros, and this position was further enhanced when Doug Brocail was forced to the DL with a hamstring injury. Hawkins hasn’t recorded double-digit saves since 2004 and he has just 10 saves and 20 blown saves in that time. In fact, since 2005 Hawkins has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 K/9 mark. That’s league average across the board, but at least you know you should get a month of save chances out of him.
VALUE: Medium

Joe Beimel, Nationals
Julian Tavarez is also in the mix for saves, and Beimel is actually in the minors right now on a rehab assignment for a left hip flexor strain (he hopes to be back this week). Beimel has appeared in 224 games since the start of the 2006 season, and in that time he has only thrown 193.2 innings as more often than not he wasn’t asked to face right-handed batters. In this time frame he also owns a 4.83 K/89 mark and a 1.55 K/BB rate, terrible numbers for a reliever and putrid for a closer. He will likely get a few saves, but I just can’t see him being the answer as Joel Hanrahan certainly should get a shot to reclaim his lost job at some point.
VALUE: Low

Ryan Madson, Phillies
Only a closer if Brad Lidge is out with injury. There are concerns with Lidge’s knee, but Madson is clearly the second option even though at this point his ability to accrue saves is nil. Still, Madson is a fine addition given that his fastball has gained three mph this season (94.6) leading to a huge boost in his K/9 mark (13.09) while working with a tremendous 1.83 G/F ratio. If Lidge goes down, still a possibility, Madson gains a ton of value.
VALUE: Medium

Michael Wuertz, Athletics
Joey Devine is out for the year. Brad Ziegler is missing time with an illness. Santiago Casilla is on the DL with a calf strain. That means Wuertz has picked up a couple of saves while sporting a solid 8.56 K/9 marl and a scintillating 6.50 K/BB. Don’t expect it to continue as his control has never been remotely this good (2.18 K/BB career). When Ziegler and Casilla are healthy look for Wuertz to be nothing more than a solid middle reliever option, especially with Andrew Bailey also pitching lights out (1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 20 K in 17.2 IP).
VALUE: Low

The bottom line is that saves are available and will continue to be on there on waivers through the course of the season. Just make sure you invest wisely so as to avoid picking up a handful of saves while imploding your ratios.

By Ray Flowers