Player Profile: Barry Zito

The Giants won the World Championship, my thoughts can be found in Nirvana… Again, and Barry Zito was a huge part of that run to greatness. After being left off the roster in the 2010 World Series, Zito proved his mettle by throwing two dominating games against the Cardinals in the NLCS (7.2 IP, 0 ER) and the Tigers in the World Series (5.2 IP, 1 ER). This came on the heels of a season in which he won 15 games for the G-men. Is he back to being someone to target in mixed leagues?

Barry Zito won 12 games in 2010-11. He was also limited to 53.2 innings in 2011, the only time since his rookie season that he has failed to throw 180 innings in a campaign. Those facts, not to mention that he hadn’t been a pitcher anyone could count on in the fantasy game since 2006, led to Zito being on the majority of waiver-wire’s at the start of the 2012 season. However, he blazed it up out of the gates with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first four starts on his way to his most successful season as a Giants’ hurler. I already noted that he won 15 games, more than noted names like Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmerman. Heck, he won as many games as Stephen Strasburg. Does that mean that Zito is back to being someone to think about on draft day? Not really (you didn’t really think I was going to say something else, did you?).

For the fourth straight season Zito posted an ERA over 4.00. It shouldn’t be a shock given that his poor work with the Giants has ballooned his ERA to 3.93 for his career, so that 4.15 mark from last season is right in line with what expectations should be. There’s no reason to expect improvement here. This is just the type of pitcher that Zito is at this point of his career. It should also be noted that his xFIP of 4.92 was a 4-year high, and as we continue our look at Zito it will become obvious why that is.

The major league average for WHIP in 2012 was 1.31. Barry Zito had a 1.39 mark in 2012. Moreover, the last time he posted a mark as low as 1.31 was 2005. That’s an awful long time ago to not even be average. There is no reason to think his performance will improve in 2013 in this category either.

Zito struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings in 2012, a full batter below his career 6.64 mark. The 6.64 mark is bad, about a batter below the league average (7.56 in 2012), and that 5.57 mark? You know that is horrible. Does Zito augment that low strikeout total with a strong walk rate? Hardly. His 3.42 per nine mark in 2012 was a 10 year best, and it was worse than the league average of 3.05 in 2012. The resulting 1.63 K/BB ratio of Zito was only slightly off the 1.79 mark he is saddled with for his career, and both marks are pathetically low. When you combine a terrible K mark, a bad BB mark and an average 1.02 GB/FB ratio, the results are usually an average effort. And that’s what we got from Zito – we got an average pitcher who was fortunate in the win-loss column (Zito didn’t lose any of his last 14 starts, including the playoffs with his last “L” coming on August 2nd). There is no way he’ll be able to keep up that winning streak in 2013.

Give Barry Zito full kudos for coming through down the stretch an into the playoffs for the Giants. His outing against the Cardinals is cited by many around the teams as the turnaround that propelled the Giants to their second World Championship in three seasons. On the other side of that glorious finish is the fact that Barry Zito is about as boring a pitcher as there is in the fantasy game. Don’t let the name or the finish fool you into thinking anything else. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league in 2013 don’t even bother thinking about Zito on draft day, and if you are in an NL-only league he’s still nothing more than a late round roster filler because he eats up innings and has a chance at wins.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Hunter Pence

The San Francisco Giants, for the second time in three years, won the World Championship. Marco Scutaro was amazing throughout, and Barry Zito saved their bacon of excellence on the hill, but the spiritual leader of the Giants was no doubt Hunter Pence. After collecting more than 100 RBIs, in what has roundly called a “down” season, what should we expect from Mr. Pence?

It might surprise some people to note that Pence had 104 RBIs in 2012 (that includes a finishing kick of 45 in 59 games with the Giants despite hitting .219 in the city by the Bay). Not only was that total a career best it was more RBI than Buster Posey (103), the NL MVP. It was also two more RBIs than Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, five more than Jay Bruce, eight more than Andrew McCutchen and 10 more than Robinson Cano. Still, Pence’s season was disappointing. Let me count the ways.

Pence hit .253, a career worst.
Pence stole five bases, a career worst.
Pence had a .425 SLG, a career worst.
Pence had a .319 OBP, .020 points below his career average.
Pence had a career worst 21.1 K-rate (145 Ks).
Pence had 26 doubles, tying a career worst.

Why did all of this happen and should we still look at Pence with fondness in the fantasy game?

Why did a guy who had hit at least .282 the previous three seasons, one who owns a career .285 mark, hit .253? Well I already noted the career worst strikeout total, and that certainly played its part. At the same time he walked a bit more than normal and the resulting 0.39 BB/K ratio, while not a good mark, but a dead on match for his career rate. What about his ability to lash the line drive? Same as always there too. In fact, his 17.0 percent line drive rate was the third best mark of his six year career an above his 16.1 percent career mark. Well then what about his BABIP? Though his mark was still a league average .290, that was a career low and well off his normal .321 mark.

The guy might be the most consistent hitter in baseball when it comes to GB/FB ratios. In six years the mark has been between 1.50 and 1.67, and the last four years it has been between 1.60 and 1.67 (it was 1.60 in 2012). Statistically speaking, you just can’t do that, yet he has year after year. Given the totality of his approach, one would have to expect his batting average to rebound next season.

I’ve written this many times about Pence in the past, and what I wrote then still holds now. The guy will never hit 30 homers. Simply put, he hits too many balls on the ground. I just noted his GB/FB ratio which speaks to this. Pence has a ground ball rate between 51.1 and 53.1 percent the past five years. You can’t hit more than half your balls into the ground and be a big home run hitter even if you are as consistent as all get out in the HR/F category as Pence also is (between 14.7 and 16.0 in each of his six seasons). I mean seriously folks, the amount of consistency that Pence puts up year after year in the GB/FB and HR/F categories is simply astounding. It’s no shock that he went deep 24 times in ’12. Do you know how many homers he averaged from 2008-11? Come on now, you know you want to guess. If you guessed 24 you win a big sloppy kiss – not from me but from someone you are attracted to.

So let me boil it down for you.

Pence posted the same GB/FB ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same HR/F ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same BB/K ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence hit the exact same about of homers as he always does in 2012.

We can blame his batting average dip as a bit of bad luck in BABIP, an a return to the mean if you will. Pence hit a career best .314 in 2011, a number that isn’t indicative of the player he is. What does Pence hit if you add together his 2011 and 2012 batting average? He ends up hitting .283 the past two years. What is his career average again? Oh that’s right, it’s .285.

I’m telling you folks, the guy’s consistency is unbeatable. There hasn’t been a player in baseball that can match that consistency since Pence graced major league ball fields.

The only area of concern with Pence is his steal total. The first four seasons of his career he never stole less than 11 bases and never more than 18. For those four years he averaged 13.5 steals. The last two seasons he’s only stolen 13 bases. Not an extremely fast runner until he gets his wheels rolling, Pence may never steal 18 bags again, but he still has to be looked at as a 50/50 bet to get back to double-digits in 2013.

Don’t be one of the group of people that will look down on Pence in 2013. Draft him as you normally would despite the dip in his batting average and steal total last season. Chances are pretty good that Pence will be the same player in 2013 that he has always been – a darn good one.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

The world found out what anyone who has been watching baseball for the past half decade could tell you – Marco Scutaro is a “professional hitter” and a very good baseball player. However, what Scutaro did in the playoffs may have pushed his fantasy outlook up to the point that he will be a disappointing add in 2013.

The facts.

Marco Scutaro played 118 games at second base, 27 at shortstop, and 15 at third base in 2012. That kind of flexibility does nothing but add to his value, substantially in some formats.

Scutaro hit .306 in 2012. Only one second basemen hit higher (Robinson Cano at .313). Not just that, Marco was one of the best hitters in baseball after the Giants added him in a deal with the Rockies as he hit an amazing .362 over 61 games (read that again). He also knocked in a rather remarkable 44 runs while scoring 40 times with the G-Men as well. That’s a 150 game pace of 108 RBIs and 98 runs scored.

Scutaro knocked in 74 runs. Six second baseman bettered that mark but only two shortstop eligible players did (Hanley Ramirez with 92, Starlin Castro with 78).

Scutaro scored 87 runs. Only four second sackers outproduced him (Cano 105, Ian Kinsler 105, Aaron Hill 93 and Ben Zobrist 88).

Scutaro then starred for the Giants hitting .328 in the playoffs including one of the hottest runs you will ever see in the NLCS when he had 14 hits in 28 at-bats (that’s .500 folks) to become a national star.

Given all of that, how can I say he will be over-drafted in 2013?

People will remember his insane week during the NLCS, the big hits throughout the playoffs, and think that Scutaro is bound for greatness. They will forget that he is 37 years old. They will forget that he has no power (he’s averaged nine homers in his eight full big league seasons). They’ll forget that he isn’t a base stealer (he did swipe nine bags in 2012 but he has just 18 steals the past three years and just one season in his career in double-digits). People will forget that the 37 year old middle infielder is coming off a career best batting average and RBI total.

Obviously it’s not all doom and gloom, and there is little reason to think that Scutaro will just fail to produce in 2013. He will produce a solid batting average thanks in part to his strong BB/K ratio (0.75 or better in 8-straight seasons) and be a nice piece in league specific setups given his obvious positional versatility. But the fact of the matter is that Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out in the fantasy game. Though he’s hit .299 and .306 the past two years, he owns a career .276 batting average and from 2004-2010 he never hit better than .282. He’s also coming off a career best .319 BABIP – he’s been remarkably consistent with a mark between .290 and .312 each of the previous four seasons – thanks to his insanely high 25.8 percent line drive rate. Given that he has never been better than 22.6 before in the line drive category, and that he owns a career rate of 20.7, it’s a pretty safe bet we’ll see some regression here.

So let’s say he hits .285 in 2013. In this day and age that’s a strong mark from a middle infielder. However, let’s also say he hit nine homers with six steals (his average the past six years). A .285 hitting second sacker with nine homers and six steals is NOT someone you would be comfortable starting in a 12 team mixed league, is it? I certainly wouldn’t feel good about that.

So what is Scutaro? He’s one of those players who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy. His multi position eligibility makes him a solid play in a league specific setup where his lack of pop and speed just won’t matter as much. In mixed leagues he’s nothing more than a middle infield option because of his lack of elite skills in any category. Scutaro isn’t a bad 24th round draft pick, but given that he’ll possibly go 10 rounds earlier than that in some leagues you would be wise to pass on his services in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Nirvana… Again

Nearly two years ago to the day I wrote the first Nirvana piece. That piece started out… “In the grand scheme of things a championship in sports means nothing, and the life of one person is also rendered insignificant when placed in the context of the world. But I gotta tell you, in this corner of the sphere that we all inhabit, there have been few things that can rival what has occurred over the last 24 hours.” And it happened, again…

For the second time in three years the San Francisco Giants were triumphant in the World Series. For a team that moved to California in 1958, legions of Bay Area fans lived through the decades of defeat. Now, they have been able to bask in the glow of greatness twice in three years. Words escape me to describe what it feels like to witness the triumph yet again. OK, maybe they don’t (you know me so well). Here are some interesting factoids from their run of excellence.

The Giants won their 7th championship, and for those that think Giants fans are used to winning remember that the team has been in existence for 130 years.

The Giants became the first NL team to win two championships in three years since the Big Red Machine won in back-to-back years in 1975-76. In fact, they are only the 5th NL team, ever, to do it (Cubs 1907-08, NY Giants 1921-22, Cardinals ’44 and ’46, Dodgers ’63 and ’65).

The Giants are the 5th team in history to win the World Series after finishing last in baseball in homers.

The Giants led the Tigers for 56-straight innings before Miguel Cabrera’s HR in the 3rd inning of Game 4. It was the second longest streak in post-season history.

Over the last seven games of the playoffs the Giants team ERA was 0.98. The starters ERA was much higher… 0.99.

Giants relievers pitched 11.2 innings in the World Series allowing two hits, two runs and striking out 17.

Tim Lincecum threw five games out of the bullpen in the playoffs and over those 13 innings he posted a 0.69 ERA while striking out 17 batters.

Buster Posey hit only .200 in the playoffs, but in the three series clinching games Posey drove in six runs while hitting two homers.

Pablo Sandoval won the World Series MVP Award as he hit .500 with three homers. Only three other men have reached both of those totals in a World Series – Babe Ruth (1928), Lou Gehrig (1928, 1932) and Hideki Matsui (2009). He still needs to lose about 45 lbs, but there is no disputing that the man can hit.

Marco Scutaro, nicknamed “The Blockbuster” by his teammates (cause he was the blockbuster addition of the trade deadline), had about as impressive four month run you will ever see from a non-elite player. Scutaro hit .362 with the Giants over 61 games and tied Derek Jeter for the major league lead with 88 hits in that time. Scutaro then went on to hit .500 in the Giants 7-game victory over the Cardinals in the NLCS, and over his last 11 playoff games he had at least two hits eight times. Fittingly it was his hit in the 10th inning that led to the Giants’ World Series victory.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Matt Cain

There are other pitchers who make more money, who have more fame, and who reach greater heights than Matt Cain (it’s pretty tough for Cain to get a footing in the national conscience when one of the five biggest stories in baseball on the hill happens to be his teammate, Tim Lincecum). At the same time, there my be no hurler in baseball who is more consistent than the Giants #2 starter who will be looking for one more big season as he heads into free agency after the 2012 season.

Cain has never won 15 games in a season, basically the bare minimum for one to be considered an ace. In fact, he’s only won in double-digit’s in four of the last six years which might lead you to think that he isn’t anything to write home about. However, if you’ve followed Cain closely over the years, you know the story – the Giants simply have an aversion to scoring runs when he is on the hill. Just take a look at his earned run averages over the past five years:

3.65, 3.76, 2.89, 3.14, 2.88

The last three years his ERA has been borderline elite, an in fact his 2.97 mark in that time frame is the sixth best mark in baseball for hurlers who have thrown at least 480-innings as he bested arms like Jered Weaver (3.03), Justin Verlander (3.06) and CC Sabathia (3.18). Unfortunately Cain has won 14, 13 and 12 games the past three years as the Giants anemic offense simply hasn’t supported him sufficiently leaving him on the outskirts looking in when talk roles around to the games greats. Still, consistency is his hallmark.

Cain owns a 1.20 career WHIP, and the last three seasons his WHIP has been 1.18, 1.08 and 1.08. Moreover, his base runner per nine mark of 10.25 is the 8th best mark in baseball the past three seasons and better than Felix Hernandez (10.51), Cole Hamels (10.55) and Tim Lincecum (10.79). He’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

Cain has struck out at least 163 batters each of the past six years. Only three others hurlers are in that group (CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren). In his last four years Cain has been over 170 Ks, and the last three years his totals have been 171, 177 and 179. Yet again, he’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

One aspect of Cain’s game that is elite is his ability to take the ball every five games. In his first full season he tossed “only” 190.2 innings, but in each of his last five seasons he has thrown at least 200-innings. In this day and age, the ability to throw 200-innings year after year is a rare trait (only six others have thrown 200-innings each of the past six years: Roy Halladay, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren and CC Sabathia).

I could go on and on with Cain, highlighting things like his remarkable 3-year run in BABIP (.263, .252 and .260), but I think the point is clear: Cain is a  borderline elite arm who will throw a lot of innings, pile up strong strikeout totals, and provide you with top of the heap ratios. He may not rack up wins with the elite, his total of 39 is tied for 12th in the game the past three years, but all of his other fantasy numbers will help you to win a championship. I must admit to some trepidation given that his GB/FB is just 0.84 for his career, and that his HR/F ratio is just 6.5 percent, but for now, pitching half his games in the pitcher’s ball yard in San Francisco will minimize those concerns. Cain shouldn’t be your #1 starter in mixed leagues, but if he is your #2 arm, you’ll be sitting in a nice spot.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7th, 2011

Rumors are flying at the Winter Meetings, but there are a few deals that have actually been completed.

Huston Street was believed to have been dealt to the Padres as the club from southern California was thought to have done a great job covering up for the loss of Heath Bell to the Marlins. However, reports are now circulating that not only is the deal not complete but the Rockies are still in active negotiations with at least one other team about Street. We’ll wait an see how this plays out, but it’s a certainty that Street will be dealt as the Rockies feel confident that Rafael Betancourt can handle the 9th inning.

*UPDATE: The deal sending Street to the Padres was finally ratified. Street will serve as the closer for the Padres in 2012.

Erik Bedard is an impressive hurler when he is capable of dragging his weary bones onto the field. Last season he may have gone 5-9 but he also posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and an 8.70 K/9 mark proving how effective he could be. However, the downside is that he only made 24 starts covering 129.1 innings (his biggest innings pitched mark in four seasons). The Pirates have decided to look past the litany of injuries to sign Bedard to relatively painless 1-year deal for $4.5 million. It’s a nice signing if he can stay healthy.

Frank Francisco has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Mets with reports suggesting he will be paid about $12 million. The Mets also signed Jon Rauch to help to bolster their bullpen, but the arm to target in the fantasy game is Francisco. The projected closer in 2012, Francisco owns an electric arm but he’s struggled to stay healthy and consistent when on the mound. Still, the guy has 368 Ks in 334 career innings, and the past three years he’s brought his walk total down to the major league average (3.01 per nine). He’s got a chance to be a solid closer for the Metropolitans.

Nate McLouth signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates for a reported $1.75 million. McLouth had his greatest success as a Pirate before a couple of somewhat troubled seasons in Atlanta where his production was terrible and he struggled to stay healthy. Still just 30 years old, McLouth was a fantasy standout just a few seasons ago as he averaged 23 homers, 99 runs scored, 82 RBI and 21 steals over the 2008-09 campaigns.

The Giants and Mets made a deal that saw them exchange outfielders that have followed similar paths. The deal is this: the Giants receive Angel Pagan while the Mets pick up Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The reliever, Ramirez, is a solid NL-only arm in the fantasy game, but this deal is all about the outfielders. In 2010 both were fantasy all-stars, but both slumped in 2011. Torres has more power than Pagan, but his OPS dropped to .643 last season as he looked lost for long stretches of time. Pagan, who hit .290 and stole 37 bags in 2010, fell to .262 with 32 steals last season. Given the dearth of athleticism in the Giants’ lockeroom Pagan figures to hit at the top of the order for the G-Men. For the Giants sake, I certainly hope they don’t think that adding Pagan and Melky Cabrera gives them enough offense to compliment their wonderful pitching.

Still Twisting

Albert Pujols is apparently leaning toward returning to St. Louis as reports suggest that the Cards and Marlins both offered him very similar contracts.

Prince Fielder is the bat that teams will focus on adding when the Pujols situation is resolved. I’ve been hearing that the Blue Jays, Mariners and Marlins (if they lose out on Pujols) might be the two most aggressive teams to add the portly slugger.

Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez are said to be available, but teams will have to “overpay” the Athletics to add their services. At the moment, it looks like the market for Gonzalez is more active.

Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers is the hot rumor right now. It makes a lot of sense given that Prince Fielder will not be back and that the Brew Crew do not want to have to count on Casey McGehee rebounding in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Giants, Royals Deal

The Giants added a bat, something everyone knows that they need, while dealing away a problem child who might have had the best arm on the team. The Giants also managed to do something that I always tell people not to do in the fantasy game. What boner did they pull? The sold low and bought high. Maybe they should spend some more time reading my stuff.

The Deal:
Giants Receive: Melky Cabrera
Royal Receive: Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo

Cabrera had the best season of a rather undistinguished career in 2011 as he hit .305 with 18 homers, 20 steals, 87 RBI and 102 runs scored. He also racked up 201 hits to impress everyone. However, this is what I see. Cabrera had success because of the copious plate appearance total. I mean, he had 706 of them (the 11th most in baseball). As a result, he was able to post career bests in RBI, runs, hits, doubles (44), homers etc. In terms of his ratios, his BB-rate of 5.0 percent was a career worst. His K-rate of 13.3 percent was a career worst. His .339 OBP was only .008 better than his career rate. His 1.44 GB/FB ratio was just off his career mark of 1.52. His line drive rate of 20.3 percent was only slightly above his 19.4 percent career mark. He also posted a career-high of .332 in the BABIP category, .033 points better than his career average and the first time he had a mark in the .300′s since 2006. It was a strong year in terms of his fantasy value, but in terms of his real world performance his success was largely a factor of those 706 PAs and not because of growth in his game.

Sanchez was a strong performer in 2010 when he went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 205 Ks in 193.1 innings. Last season he regressed. Not only was he limited to just 101.1 innings with issues with his elbow, he also saw his K/9 mark go down half a batter (it was still an impressive 9.06), while his terrible BB/9 rate (4.47 in 2010) shot up well past pathetic into the realm of atrocious (5.86). So instead of trading him coming off his best season, the Giants held on and ended up having top deal him at his lowest point in four years. Great move guys. Sanchez still owns dominating stuff, but until he does a better job of throwing strikes it just won’t matter. If he were able to get his walk rate under control, and to this point the best BB/9 mark he’s ever had is 4.27 in 2008 – a full batter above the big league average mind you – Sanchez would be one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, he’s shown little consistency in his career and the results are a mediocre WHIP (1.39) and ERA (4.26). At this point he’s mostly potential and little substance.

Verdugo is a left-handed starter much in the same mold as Sanchez. He throws hard, his K/9 mark is in the double digits during his minor league career (11.1), but he’s also walking far too many batters leading to 4.5 BB/9 mark. When he’s locked in few can hit him, but far too often he ends up beating himself. He’s not a lock to contribute with the Royals this season either as he has thrown just 130.1 innings at the Double-A level.

If everything comes together for Sanchez the Giants will rue the day they made this deal. It will also end up looking bad if they (a) fail to sign Cabrera to a long term deal (he’s a free agent after the 2012 season), or (b) if Cabrera returns to being the hitter he was for his entire career prior to 2011. As stated, much of what Cabrera accomplished in 2011 was the result, NOT of improvements in his game, but because of all those extra plate appearances an a rather fortuitous BABIP mark. The data seem to favor a regression in the batting average (career .275), in the homer category (he’d never hit more than 17 homers in back-to-back seasons before hitting 18 in 2011), and in the steals department for Melky (he’d never stolen more than 13 bags in a season, and with 10 caught stealing last year in 30 attempts he really didn’t add anything to the offense). The Giants needed a bat and Cabrera fills that need, but let’s hope the Giants realize that they would be lucky to get a repeat effort out of Cabrera in 2012 so they still have a lot of work to do to bolster an offense that was the club’s undoing in 2011.

Final Notes

The Giants’ outfield might be Cabrera in center, Nate Schierholtz in right and ??? They could be interested in bringing back Carlos Beltran and/or Andres Torres/Cody Ross, but for now the look of the outfield is one of a second division club. If it’s Aubrey Huff in left and Brandon Belt at first base, would that make you feel any better? Me neither.

Lorenzo Cain will likely open the 2012 season as the Royals starting center fielder. After hitting .312 with 16 homers, 81 RBI, 84 runs and 16 steals at Triple-A in 2011, he’s someone to remember in the later rounds of mixed league drafts – he’s got the skills to offer a substantial season in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

The Verducci Effect

I don’t normally completely steal someone’s idea when putting together an article, but in this case I’m going to do just that. Of course I will give full accredidation, so don’t go reporting me to the principle for stealing someone’s work.

Tom Verducci is a well known writer for Sports Illustrated, and a few years back he had a discussion with pitching guru Rick Peterson that led Mr. Verducci to the position about the innings pitched increase youngsters often face from one year to the next. Ultimately what he started espousing was that youngsters who realized a significant increase in innings pitched from one season to another were at an increased risk of breaking down or seeing their productivity decrease in the following season. Ultimately the research that was undertaken led to the Verducci Effect which states the following:

Pitchers who are 25 years old or younger, who see an innings increase from one year to the next of 30 frames or more, are at a greater risk of injury or ineffectiveness in the following campaign.

Now there is some debate about whether or not you should blindly accept this postulate as an accurate depiction of what occurs on the field – Michael Weddell did a study for BaseballHQ in which he determined there really was no increased risk of a burnout or injury in the following campaign – but logic obviously leads to the position that a major increase in inning pitched from one year to the next isn’t likely to be a good thing for a developing arm. I do think that too much is made of innings pitched in some circles, to me a more effective way to look at pitcher’s workload is to track pitches per start, and perhaps even more importantly pitches per inning (those high stress, big pitch count innings can be really detrimental). However, the Verducci Effect speaks to innings pitched, so let’s work with that.

Am I overly concerned when a young arm goes from 125 to 155 innings? Not really. I would be more concerned if that 30 inning jump shot a guy from 180 to 210 innings pitched. However, that doesn’t mean I’m not concerned when that innings pitched mark begins to substantially increase. Here are some of the men highlighted by Verducci as risks in 2011.

Madison Bumgarner (21 yrs old, 214.1 IP, +73 IP): This is a scary increase total in my mind, both because of the innings pitched number, and because of the age of Madison. He is a big kid, listed at 6’4″ and 215 lbs, and his performance in the playoffs was dominating suggesting that the innings weren’t an issue (he was 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 20.2 innings). Still, his IP increase is more than double the baseline for concern with the Verducci Effect, and even if Mr. Verducci is only 50 percent right, the doubling of his suggested baseline makes me 100 percent concerned with Bumgarner.

Alex Sanabia (22 yrs old, 170.2 IP, +66.1 IP): The youngster made 12 starts late in the year with the Marlins, but only three times did he reach triple digit in pitches (with a high of 109). He did have some soreness in his arm late in the year, though there is no way to tell if that was related to the substantial innings pitched increase.

Mat Latos (23 yrs old, 184.2 IP, +61.2 IP): Here’s the big worry with Latos – he has been on this list two years in a row. Moreover, his innings pitched increase has been massive from 56 to 123 to 184.1. That’s right, his innings pitched mark has gone up more than 60-innings in each of the past two years. I don’t need the Verducci Effect to tell me those are scary numbers. You think this massive innings increase is at least party to blame for Latos’ struggles down the stretch last year (1-5, 5.66 ERA, 1.51 WHIP over his last seven starts)?

David Price (25 yrs old, 221.1 IP, +58.2 IP): The Rays are as careful as any organization in the game with how they treat their pitchers. Given that, and the fact that Price is a bit older than the others on this list, I’m not as concerned as a might be if some other hurler boosted his innings total by nearly 60 frames.

Brandon Beachy (24 yrs old, 133 IP, +57 IP): Beachy pitched only 15 innings for the Braves but he did well with a 3.00 ERA an a 9.00 K/9 mark. He did struggle to throw strikes with a 4.20 BB/9 mark, a total that was double the rate he posted in the minors (2.10 per nine). Was that because of wear and tear on his arm or because of the level of the competition? We need more data to be sure.

In the end, common sense might be the best direction to take here. Would I take Jon Garland over Mat Latos because of the youngsters massive innings increase the past two years? Of course not. However, if I was debating between Latos and Dan Haren, well, then it’s a different story.

Decisions Contemplated and Made

Why can’t one of the leagues all-time great sluggers find a job, and have the Rockies pulled the string on a series of moves that will preclude the club from being a contender for the next decade?

The Plight of Jim Thome

Jim Thome is a masher of historic proportions. He has 589 homers, the 8th most in big league history, and though he hit “only” 25 homers last season that was in a mere 276 at-bats. Given that pace, if he had come to the plate for 500 at-bats he would have hit 45 homers. Clearly the old man, he’s 39, can still mash it. Thome was exceptionally effective against righties last season hitting .302 with 19 homers and a 1.154 OPS in just 189 at-bats, a pace of 50 homers per 500 at-bats. Honestly, he was every bit the equal of Albert Pujols and last season when facing righties.

So where does all that leave him for 2011? It leaves him unemployed. The Twins remain interested in bringing back the slugger, but Thome is looking for one last substantial paycheck after playing last season for $1.7 million. He won’t be giving the Twins a hometown discount to return. This has left the door open for someone to capitalize, and it looks like the Rangers have come out guns a blazin’. I have a hard time figuring out where the at-bats would come from though. Here is what I see.

The addition of Adrian Beltre to play third base moves Michael Young to DH. Young could find at-bats literally at every position on the infield (including first base), but for now Young is slotted as the primary DH. That leaves first base in the hands of Mitch Moreland, and with rumors floating around that the Rangers wouldn’t include him in a deal to get Matt Garza, I would be hard pressed to think they really want to platoon Moreland in 2011 even if he did struggle in limited work against lefties last year (.200 in 20 ABs). And you can forget about David Murphy getting 400 at-bats unless someone is hurt. The Rangers seemingly don’t have a spot in the every day lineup for Thome – though that doesn’t mean he couldn’t match last years total with the Twins of 276 at-bats. What I do know is that if he is added to the club, the Rangers would be forced to move people around a lot, and that isn’t an ideal situation for a team with championship aspirations. Having that flexibility with positions is wonderful, but players like to find their comfort zones and really don’t want to be in and out of the lineup, using a different glove, every day.

Have the Rockies Been Financially Wise?

I don’t often spend time talking about baseball and money, though I did last month in The End of Baseball? I’m not going to bash the Yankees and the Red Sox today (for a change). Instead, I want to touch on the business model that the Rockies are currently operating under.

The Rockies have signed the two cornerstone’s of their franchise to deals worth more than $214 million as Troy Tulowitzki signed a 7-year, $134.5 million contract extension while Carlos Gonzalez re-upped for 7-years and $80 million. That is a whopping amount of cash which raises the very real possibility that the Rockies may not be able to put forth a contender for the next decade.

Last year the Rockies spent $84 million on their payroll. Though it will take a few years for the massive dollars of Tulo and CarGo to really kick in, the duo will be paid about $30 million a year over the life of their contracts. That number rises even further as the deals reach the later years as they will make $36 million in 2015, $37 million in 2016 and $40 million in 2017. Even if the club raises the payroll to $100 million in three to five years as expected, their duo will be sucking up nearly 40 percent of the payroll. To draw a parallel, the Yankees would have had to of spent $83 million on Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia to have devoted 40 percent of their team salary to two guys in 2010 (they actually made about $57 million). The bottom line is that you simply cannot have 40 percent of your payroll invested in just two players – it just doesn’t work. If either player is injured, or fails to perform like they did in 2010, the Rockies will be sunk. The reason is that so much of their resources are tied up in two players that they will be unable to substantially increase their payroll if they have other holes to fill on the roster. Will they be able to sign that veteran backup for $4 million, or will they have to go with the $500,000 youngster with only 112 big league at-bats? Will they be able to bring in a setup man of note if they have only $900,000 to spend on a bullpen arm? Of course they wont.

I wish the Rockies all the luck in the world. Denver is a magnificent town, that ballpark is a jewel, and it seems like Tulo and Gonzalez both have a shot to be All-Star’s for the duration of their deals. Still, for a team that will never be able to financially compete with the big boys I think this was a move that they may end up regretting. Take it from a San Francisco Giants’ fan that watched his team, for years, be hamstring by the contract of superstar Barry Bonds – one major contract can be tough to overcome when you don’t have endless resources, let alone two.

By Ray Flowers