2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Hits

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

RELIEF PITCHER: HITS

There were three relievers, outside my top-20, that I highlighted as must adds in The Draft Guide. If you listened to me and added these three relievers, on the cheap mind you, at the end of the season you would have been left with the following scintillating numbers:

11 wins, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 246 Ks (11.48 K/9), 71 SVs in 193 IP

Oh, and I suggested taking all of these relievers as early as anyone in the industry so you were able to get phenomenal value if you did as instructed (the first man listed was the only one regularly going in the top-250 according to ADP numbers in standard mixed leagues).

Kenley Jansen (#22): Jansen saved 25 games while dominating as heartily as any hurler in the game (a recent procedure should have also cleared up the ongoing concerns with his heart condition). Just take a look at these numbers: .146 BAA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.71 K/9. It seems like the only thing that can hold him back is his health.

Tyler Clippard (#29): The Nationals righty saved 32 games stepping in when Drew Storen went down with injury, and he also added 13 holds for good measure. Clippard had a rough month of September that muddied his ratios but he still had a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with well over a K per inning (84 in 72.2 IP). Year after year he just gets batters out.

Sergio Romo (#31): I’ve said, over an over an over again, that Romo is one of the 10 best relievers in baseball. Still, when Brian Wilson went down with injury the Giants turned to Santiago Casilla to close (he ended the year with 25 saves). After Casilla finally slowed down, Romo turned into 9th inning gold. No,make that platinum. Romo had 23 holds and 14 saves (in 15 chances), and posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 10.25 K/9 an a 6.30 K/BB ratio. Nothing he did this year changed my mind at all.

Some other hits… and you know they might be few and far between as the relief position this year had more turnover than just about any season I can ever remember.

Huston Street (#12): He was limited to “only” 23 saves because of injury, but he was likely the most dominating closer in baseball not named Chapman, Kimbrel, Rodney or Jansen. Street struck out 10.85 batters per nine innings, posted a 1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and allowed 17 hits, seventeen, in 39 innings of work. Only two other pitchers in the history of the game allowed fewer than his 3.92 hits per nine innings in a season of 35 innings – Mike Adams (3.41 in ’09) and Craig Kimbrel (3.88 in ’12).

Rafael Betancourt (#17): I’ve been talking him up for years, and he finally got the chance to be a huge fantasy contributor with his 9th inning role with the Rockies. Rafael closed the door on opponents 31 times, had a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, struck out 57 batters in 57.2 innings and once again impressed with his 4.75 K/BB ratio. Money.

Grant Balfour (#27): He started out the year as the closer, struggled a wee bit, and lost his job to Ryan Cook. Balfour eventually regained the role and went on an amazing run in the second half (0.76 WHIP, .131 BAA over his last 33 games). All told he saved 24 games, had 15 holds, registered nearly a K per inning (72 in 74.2 IP), and dominated with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Greg Holland (#36): Seven wins, nine holds and 16 saves for a guy who was chosen in the reserve rounds is pretty darn impressive. Add in his dominating 12.22 K/9 mark and we can overlook the unsightly 4.57 walk per nine mark he posted. If he can cut that walk rate down to the league average, this is a guy who could be a top-15 RP next year.

Jonathan Broxton (#39): He stepped up when Joakim Soria need Tommy John surgery, and on the year Broxton saved 27 game between the Royals and Reds. The 2.48 ERA was impressive, but it should be noted that Broxton, who owns a career K/9 mark of 10.96, struck out only 6.98 batters per nine this season as he decided to just get ground ball after ground ball this season (his 2.22 GB/FB ratio blew away his career 1.49 mark).

Luke Gregerson (#46): Always one of my favorite final round grabs, Gregerson was allowed to do something he had never before been tasked with – working the 9th inning. He only filled in when Street was out, but after three saves in three years Gregerson’s owners weren’t complaining about his nine saves and 24 holds. Luke posted his best ERA (2.39), and that 1.09 WHIP will play in any league. An extremely stable skill set.

Glen Perkins (#50): Bet you that Perkins wasn’t drafted in your 12 team mixed league. At the end of the campaign he had 16 saves and 11 holds, while giving career bests in WHIP (1.04), K/9 (9.98) and BB/9 (2.05). A sneaky in-season add that paid huge dividends.

 

By Ray Flowers

Readers Probes: Ogando and Twins’ Pen

photo © 2011 Mike LaChance | more info (via: Wylio)

 

I’m doing something today that I never do. I’m going to address two the questions from the COMMENTS section in an article today because I thought the conversation would be beneficial to all. I’ll directly quote the response of the readers, and then give my thoughts.

 

Yesterday in the July 5th Mailbag, I gave a less than glowing review of my outlook with Alexi Ogando. Reader Tom gave a differing viewpoint.

“As always, loved the piece. I just wanted to play devil’s advocate with Ogando for a moment with you, though. There are 2 main areas of worry: durability and performance.

With durability, we wonder about the huge jump in innings and getting tired as the season progresses. We’ve seen him tire lately, but the staff is aware and will rest him until July 19th (missing one start). Considering he’s a RP conversion, it might help to look at his teammate C.J. Wilson, with whom they did the same thing last year. Wilson’s previous high in innings was 73.2, but they had him finish with 228 last year (including playoffs). Did C.J. tire? Actually, he got better as the year progressed until September hit. Was it tiring or just regression from his really good numbers? Also, with C.J. (a RP convert), his K-rate was only mid 6′s through July, but then saw a large uptick into the end of year. We could be seeing the same thing with Ogando as well. He started throwing his slider more and bam…season high K’s. He could keep the K-rate at or above 8 as long as he throws the slider approximately 30 percent of the time or more.

Ogando’s innings [high was] about 71 (including minors), so about the same as Wilson had. A big difference between them is that Ogando has much better control. Because of that, he has many less stressful innings and likewise receives less wear and tear on the arm. It isn’t so much about innings as it is a) total pitches and more importantly b) innings with stressful pitch numbers (the innings where 30+ pitches are thrown). As far as performance goes, yes he will see a correction in BABIP. The reason why it is lower at the moment is because of the contact he induces (weak off the bat). That is why his BABIP against line drives and flies is better than league avg and that his HR/9 is better. Will it stay at .247 (present), no. But it is possible for it to remain in the .280′s (Wilson career .289). Also consider that the league-wide BABIP is about .290 this year vs historically always being .300. Also consider that since the beginning of June, Ogando has carried a .310 BABIP and 57 LOB percent…while his ERA/WHIP have been 3.95/1.28. This includes arguably the roughest stretch in performance of his career.

Is it crazy to think this is just a little regression to the mean and nothing more (considering Ogando carries a career 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP)? And if this is the rough stretch (and still a decent pitcher), I wonder how he’ll be with some rest, more sliders, and a better idea of how to pitch as he gains experience. I’m not willing to say he is elite, but he is certainly up there. And just think, Tim Lincecum is going through a rough stretch as well. Over the last 30 days, he is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. But we’re not going to write him off. Considering that Ogando’s rough patch isn’t that bad and other than those few games, he was amazing…maybe we should give him the benefit of the doubt. There is precedent with his own teammate as recent as last year that this could hold up over a full season. Maybe lightning does strike twice.”
– TOM

Tom – No one ever brings it more in their analysis here than you do. I applaud the effort you put in, must have taken  you a good half hour or more to break down everything with Ogando. Great work – you’re a model for everyone that just writes ‘nuh uh’ in their responses.

I will not dispute the main factual arguments you presented, but I will question the comparison that you drew. It’s easy to compare Ogando to Wilson in that both are converted relievers for the Rangers, but it’s pretty darn hard to directly compare the two. First, Wilson had trained for years in America and had been a big league pitcher for years. Even if his innings total was low, you have to think he was better trained, or shall we say prepared, than Ogando. Second, they are different types of pitchers. Ogando’s GB/FB rate is 0.95 over his two seasons while Wilson’s mark is 1.67. That’s a massive difference that clearly swings things in Wilson’s favor. Third, let’s take a look at your pitch contention. This season Ogando has thrown an average of 3.93 pitches per plate appearances and 15.9 pitches per inning. Last season, during Wilson’s big innings pitched bump, he tossed 4.05 pitches per plate appearance and 16.9 pitches per inning. I’m not measuring “stress” at all with those numbers, but those numbers are pretty close (Wilson’s been better this year at 3.85 and 15.8). Fourth, you can’t really compare two pitchers to one another. You can look at historical averages and draw come basic conclusions (.290-300 BABIP for a league average for example), but that doesn’t mean that Ogando will be in that range (as you already know) – he could end up setting a baseline above, or more likely, below it.

The problem with Ogando is that we simply do not know what to expect. Given traditional measures of analysis and historical trends, the pendulum would have to favor me in this argument. Does this mean I will be “right” about Ogando? I wouldn’t have written what I did if I didn’t believe it, but that doesn’t mean I’m always going to be right.

 

“Ray, is Glen Perkins a save candidate now with another save Tuesday for the Twins? Need to pick up a pitcher, either the injury prone Rich Harden or Perkins? Thanks.”
– JIM

Jim – The Twins closing situation is up in the air. Matt Capps is struggling, he will not be given a saves chance today if one arises, and even if he rights the ship he could be traded at some point (I touched on this situation yesterday in the Mailbag piece referenced above).

Joe Nathan is improving as he’s looked good since he returned from the DL with four straight scoreless outings in which he hasn’t allowed a single batter to reach base via a walk while allowing only one hit. The Twins obviously are looking at returning him to the 9th inning, but is he ready to assume that role right now?

Perkins has two saves in 112 career games. He’s also left handed, and many managers prefer to avoid port siders in the 9th because of matchups, but here’s the biggest issue – he’s never been this good before.(1) His K/9 is up over four full batters. I know he is working out of the bullpen right now versus spending all his time starting, but can he really go from a five per nine type of hurler to a guy with more than a K per inning? Count me doubtful there. (2) He has a 4 year low in his walk rate (nearly a full batter above his normal rate). (3) In 30.1 innings he hasn’t allowed a single home run (his career rate is 1.16 per nine). There’s just no way that I can look at him and trust him to be a closer, and I don’t think the Twins will see is differently. I’m not saying he wont get a few looks in the short term, I think he might, but he’s not likely to have long term success in that role with his skill set and current level of performance which is so drastically out of line with his previous five seasons in the big leagues.

Do I suggest adding Perkins or Harden? Depends on your need (does your team lack for relief or starting pitching?). Harden has great skills, but he has played this game with us all before. Just when we buy that he is “back,” injury strikes. If you need save help add Perkins. Even if he picks up only a few it might help you move up the standings a spot or two. I just don’t trust Harden’s being able to take the ball every five days the rest of the way. If it doesn’t work out with Perkins, you should still be able to find starting help on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers