AL LABR 2013

Phoenix Arizona.

Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.

Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.

12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)

C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)

PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)

BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry

My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).

Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.

I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.

Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.

On the hill…

I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?

In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.

The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…

So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?

Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.

By Ray Flowers

Valentine’s Day Special

If you forgot to look at a calendar consider this your public service announcement for the day. It’s Valentine’s Day moron. Go out and get your special someone something special. It doesn’t have to be a diamond ring – though I’m sure those are welcomed – it just has to be something that shows you care. A box of candy (one that doesn’t look like you bought it at the convenient store on the corner would be nice). A stuffed teddy bear like the one above. Hell, if all of that isn’t happening make a card. Nothing says I care like a handmade card. Don’t worry if it looks like it was done by a seven year old. This is one time that it will seem adorable even if you have no artistic talent (for those of you who are interested in the holiday, the History Channel has a nice little section of videos discussing the day).

Before I go and get all soft on you all, and yes I have a special day about to be set in motion (my lady planned an evening for me that is a total surprise. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed it by mentioning it here in this piece), let’s get back to the world of baseball which is the real reason you came to BaseballGuys.com today, not to read my mushy thoughts on the holiday.

Grant Balfour will likely miss 4-6 weeks as he went under the knife on Thursday for a knee issue. The club hopes he will be able to return in time for Opening Day, but that’s obviously an open ended question at this point. Ryan Cook would seem most likely to take over given that he filled the role with aplomb last season in the first half. Some may have forgotten with Cook that he had 14 saves, 21 holds, a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.82 K/9 mark in 2012. That’s an elite line folks. Some will mention Sean Doolittle as a possible closing option, but the guy literally has less than 75 innings pitched in his career (he’s a converted hitter). He’s got a huge K arm, 11.41 per nine last year, and he walked only 2.09 per nine, but he’s just so inexperienced and really only has one solid pitch at the moment (he threw his fastball 87 percent of the time in ’12).

Trevor Cahill lost 10-15 lbs over the winter. Question. How does Cahill not know how much weight he lost? Did he never weigh himself before (I mean, can he see his toes now or what)? There’s obviously a benefit to getting in better shape. It should take some pressure of Cahill’s legs and give him a bit more oomph at the end of the season. Cahill pushed his K-rate to 7.02 per nine last year, a career best, and more than a batter above his career rate. If he holds on to those gains, and is able to maintain his out of this world 2.69 GB/FB ratio from last season, that ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.29) could certainly come down.

For those of you looking for some sexy Valentine’s outfits…

Rich Harden threw Wednesday and said that his surgically repaired shoulder felt pretty good. “I’m hoping it’ll feel the same when I start facing hitters. I threw mostly fastballs because I’m trying to get that feel back.” The Twins don’t know exactly yet if Harden would fit best in the bullpen or at the back-end of the rotation, but I would bet that if he’s healthy he’ll be able to get batters out. For his career Harden has struck out 949 batters in 928.1 innings.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a team as clubs are still a bit unsure about whether giving him all that cash, and giving up a first round draft pick as compensation is worth it. For more on Lohse see his Player Profile.

Adam Wainwright had a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season, solid numbers indeed but off the pace he set for himself before he had Tommy John surgery. I’m here to tell ya though, he pitched much better than it seemed. Take a look at his xFIP for a quick snapshot of how he performed: 3.32 in 2009, 3.02 in 2010, Tommy John surgery in 2011, 3.23 in 2012. His 8.34 K/9 mark is a five year best, and his 3.54 K/BB ratio was better than his 3.02 career mark. Toss in a career best 1.93 GB/FB ratio (career 1.57), and we have a guy who is primed for a huge season in 2013.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Hits

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

RELIEF PITCHER: HITS

There were three relievers, outside my top-20, that I highlighted as must adds in The Draft Guide. If you listened to me and added these three relievers, on the cheap mind you, at the end of the season you would have been left with the following scintillating numbers:

11 wins, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 246 Ks (11.48 K/9), 71 SVs in 193 IP

Oh, and I suggested taking all of these relievers as early as anyone in the industry so you were able to get phenomenal value if you did as instructed (the first man listed was the only one regularly going in the top-250 according to ADP numbers in standard mixed leagues).

Kenley Jansen (#22): Jansen saved 25 games while dominating as heartily as any hurler in the game (a recent procedure should have also cleared up the ongoing concerns with his heart condition). Just take a look at these numbers: .146 BAA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.71 K/9. It seems like the only thing that can hold him back is his health.

Tyler Clippard (#29): The Nationals righty saved 32 games stepping in when Drew Storen went down with injury, and he also added 13 holds for good measure. Clippard had a rough month of September that muddied his ratios but he still had a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with well over a K per inning (84 in 72.2 IP). Year after year he just gets batters out.

Sergio Romo (#31): I’ve said, over an over an over again, that Romo is one of the 10 best relievers in baseball. Still, when Brian Wilson went down with injury the Giants turned to Santiago Casilla to close (he ended the year with 25 saves). After Casilla finally slowed down, Romo turned into 9th inning gold. No,make that platinum. Romo had 23 holds and 14 saves (in 15 chances), and posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 10.25 K/9 an a 6.30 K/BB ratio. Nothing he did this year changed my mind at all.

Some other hits… and you know they might be few and far between as the relief position this year had more turnover than just about any season I can ever remember.

Huston Street (#12): He was limited to “only” 23 saves because of injury, but he was likely the most dominating closer in baseball not named Chapman, Kimbrel, Rodney or Jansen. Street struck out 10.85 batters per nine innings, posted a 1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and allowed 17 hits, seventeen, in 39 innings of work. Only two other pitchers in the history of the game allowed fewer than his 3.92 hits per nine innings in a season of 35 innings – Mike Adams (3.41 in ’09) and Craig Kimbrel (3.88 in ’12).

Rafael Betancourt (#17): I’ve been talking him up for years, and he finally got the chance to be a huge fantasy contributor with his 9th inning role with the Rockies. Rafael closed the door on opponents 31 times, had a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, struck out 57 batters in 57.2 innings and once again impressed with his 4.75 K/BB ratio. Money.

Grant Balfour (#27): He started out the year as the closer, struggled a wee bit, and lost his job to Ryan Cook. Balfour eventually regained the role and went on an amazing run in the second half (0.76 WHIP, .131 BAA over his last 33 games). All told he saved 24 games, had 15 holds, registered nearly a K per inning (72 in 74.2 IP), and dominated with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Greg Holland (#36): Seven wins, nine holds and 16 saves for a guy who was chosen in the reserve rounds is pretty darn impressive. Add in his dominating 12.22 K/9 mark and we can overlook the unsightly 4.57 walk per nine mark he posted. If he can cut that walk rate down to the league average, this is a guy who could be a top-15 RP next year.

Jonathan Broxton (#39): He stepped up when Joakim Soria need Tommy John surgery, and on the year Broxton saved 27 game between the Royals and Reds. The 2.48 ERA was impressive, but it should be noted that Broxton, who owns a career K/9 mark of 10.96, struck out only 6.98 batters per nine this season as he decided to just get ground ball after ground ball this season (his 2.22 GB/FB ratio blew away his career 1.49 mark).

Luke Gregerson (#46): Always one of my favorite final round grabs, Gregerson was allowed to do something he had never before been tasked with – working the 9th inning. He only filled in when Street was out, but after three saves in three years Gregerson’s owners weren’t complaining about his nine saves and 24 holds. Luke posted his best ERA (2.39), and that 1.09 WHIP will play in any league. An extremely stable skill set.

Glen Perkins (#50): Bet you that Perkins wasn’t drafted in your 12 team mixed league. At the end of the campaign he had 16 saves and 11 holds, while giving career bests in WHIP (1.04), K/9 (9.98) and BB/9 (2.05). A sneaky in-season add that paid huge dividends.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August9, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Drop disappointing Eric Hosmer for a legit power threat of Manny Machado in 16 team non-keeper points league?
– @linas2000

Manny Machado is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. Still, it’s very questionable for the Orioles to be calling up the 20 year old at this point. First, though a shortstop, the club is going to play him at third base where he has played all of two games. Second, he’s just 20 years old and owns a mere .263/.343/.428 slash line in 218 minor league games. Third, let’s just put it – is he ready for this? One GM doesn’t think so according to Jon Heyman. “I still think it’s too early to recall him. Just because he’s better than Wilson Betemit doesn’t mean it’s the right move for the kid.” To me, this move smacks of desperation by the Orioles.

Hosmer is hitting .227 with one home run in his last 26 games, and he’s just not getting it done despite the fact that we all expect him to one day. Given that your league is 16 teams you could take a shot at catching lighting in a bottle with Machado if you need to do something significant to move up in the standings. I don’t think Machado’s going to have a Josh Rutledge like impact but at this point Hosmer  isn’t getting it done.

Zack Greinke has become a matchup pitcher this year. Am I wrong?
– @keithsweat96

All depends how you look at it. On the year Greinke has a solid set of ratios (3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), has nearly a K per inning (137 in 142 frames) and his 3.81 K/BB ratio is impressive. In three starts with the Angels he has a 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a terrible 1.88 K/BB ratio. He’s also posted a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his last five starts with a 2.60 K/BB ratio. The answer depends on the strength of your pitching staff and your place in the pitching categories. If you wanted to be careful with starting Greinke I could totally understand that, but if you wanted to continue to roll with him that might also make sense as well. Manage those categories.

12 team 5x5roto. Amazing I’m asking you this, but is Jon Lester dropable at this point?
– @Only1dREWSTAR

It’s a fair question to ask given his up and down work, though I’m still inclined to say that it would be a mistake to let him go (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree). I certainly wouldn’t feel compelled to start him right now though. In five of his last six outings he’s allowed at least four earned runs, and over his last five starts his ERA is 8.79 and his WHIP 1.57. He’s also gone 0-4 and only won five games all year. The real answer to your question is who you would be picking up off waivers to take his roster spot. There might be a hidden gem or two on your waiver-wire wire even in a 12 team league, so it’s worth investigating.

Aaron Hill or Neil Walker – which one has more value ROTW? Looking more for Hits/Runs/RBI.
– @atlbravesfan_84

Let’s compare season long work.

A. Hill: .293-13-47-53-8 with a .823 OPS and 119 hits
Walker: .292-13-65-57-7 with a .811 OPS and 115 hits.

Well that didn’t help at all since they are both identical performers this year. How about we look at who is trending and take a look at the last month.

A. Hill: .269-2-7-14-1 with a .700 OPS and 25 hits
Walker: .294-7-24-15-0 with a .944 OPS and 25 hits

Again, a virtual toss up.

I’d slant things slightly toward Walker given that he is a slightly performer better right now and has been a run driving force for two months now.

Would you drop Phil Hughes for Matt Harvey?
– @ThatsAndyG

I feel like a broken record here. I don’t know how many times I can tell people that I’m not a fan of Hughes. Sure he has his moments, but at the end of the day he’s just… average. The 11 wins and 3.61 K/BB ratio are strong totals, but the 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are league average stuff. He’s also a total disaster with homers given that his GB/FB ratio is brutal at 0.67 this year and 0.75 for his career. The guy is always going to be homer prone in that ball yard in New York. Plus, remember this. Over his last 49 outings covering 281.2 innings Hughes is 23-20 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.46 K/BB. All of that is league average stuff.

My only real concern with Harvey is that the Mets plan on shutting him down around 165-170 innings. He’s at 126.1 innings right now.

Who will have more saves ROTS: Casilla, Balfour, Myers, Janssen?
– @BodyPillow_Pimp

I really just wanted to answer a question from “Body Pillow Pimp.” Great user name. As for the question, honestly, how am I supposed to know the answer to this one? I have no idea who will produce the most saves. We need to get past the point where we are “guessing” about who will have more saves. You shouldn’t be rostering players on a guess, you should be rostering them on skill and opportunity.

Santiago Casilla: Has a blister, a 5.40 ERA, a loss and two blown saves in his last 11 outings. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo are more likely to get the save chances ROTW.

Grant Balfour: 0.90 ERA/WHIP last 10 outings. Meanwhile, Ryan Cook has four blown saves an a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last 10 outings. The A’s still keep giving Cook the ball in the 9th though.

Brett Myers: He’s appeared in nine games with the White Sox and doesn’t have a single save chance to his name.

Casey Jannsen: He’s 14/15 this year in save chances, has a 2.11 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 44 Ks in 42.2 innings.

Should be pretty obvious who the best choice is (hint: it’s the last guy I mentioned).

Oh, an in case you were wondering what my answer is for the self asked question from my Twitter account last year – Batman or Jason Bourne ? – I’m going against the grain and saying Jason Bourne. Batman is amazing, especially in the Christopher Nolan/Christian Bale incarnation, but Batman’s success is with the gadgets money buys. Bourne improvises and gets by more on his wits than anything fancy pants he pulls out of a utility belt.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: May 26, 2011

(1) Buster Posey severely injured. Brandon Belt part of the callups as Giants make major changes. If you need help at the catchers position give Behind the Dish a read.

(2) Howie Kendrick to DL with leg issue.

(3) Brandon League is back at it.

(4) Andrew Bailey closing in on return.

(5) How useless are win-loss records to judge pitchers?

(6) Grady Sizemore (knee) could be back on Friday.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.21, 2011

(1) The FSTA Convention in Las Vegas.

(2) Where will Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon end up?

(3) The Athletics team wide makeover is impressive. Here is an additionl report on their arms in A’s Astounding Bullpen.

(4) The Yankees signed Andruw Jones to a 1-year deal.

(5) Nate McLouth to be given shot to return to starting in CF.

You can read more about the Jones and McLouth news in MLB News and Notes.

By Ray Flowers

A’s Astounding Bullpen

I know most people don’t pay close attention to baseball on the west coast, at least until the Giants won the World Series last season, but there is actually another club in the Bay Area that has, rather quietly, been working through a major transformation this offseason.

The Oakland A’s have bolstered their team in a myriad of ways. On offense they added David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui (you can read about the addition of DeJesus in Four in One, Josh Willingham in Hot Stove: Signings Galore, and Matsui in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). That’s a pretty nice upgrade on offense for the club, but it’s what they have done to bolster their bullpen that is at the center of my work today.

From the 7th inning on last year, the A’s had the 2nd best ERA in the AL just 0.13 behind the Rays’ 3.06 mark), and they were also very tough to hit allowing just 405 hits, two behind the AL leaders the Rays and Yankees (don’t neglect to realize that the A’s also led the AL in overall ERA at 3.65 and in shutouts with 17). Let’s go through the parts of what could be the best pen in the AL, and perhaps all of baseball, in 2011.

It all starts with the closer, Andrew Bailey. He had surgery on his elbow in September but should be 100 percent by the times the games count. The start Bailey has had to his career is historic. You can read about the history he has made in Top-20 RPs for 2011.

The team retained sidewinder Brad Ziegler on a 1-year, $1.25 million to avoid arbitration. It’s somewhat fair to suggest that he is a gimmick hurler, but at the same time he has a 2.51 ERA and a 2.79 GB/FB ratio over 193.2 innings pitched. He is an excellent setup man who keeps the ball on the ground and avoids the big inning.

The A’s surprised many by signing fireballer Grant Balfour to serve as the 8th inning bridge to Bailey (Balfour was given a 2-year deal for $8.1 million). I already broke down Balfour in Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec.29, but here is a quick recap – Balfour throws hard, strikes out a ton of batters, and is almost impossible to square up consistently if you have a bat in your hands.

So the A’s were set then, right? Not quite. They surprisingly swooped in and added another top flight arm to their bullpen in Brian Fuentes whom they agreed to a 2-year deal with (no dollar figures are known yet, but it’s been rumored to be a deal for as much as $12 million which seems high to me, but we’ll have to see). I wrote about Fuentes about a week ago in Signings and Strategy where I laid out the case that this guy is still a high level reliever despite the perception in some circles that he is no longer a strong late inning option.

The A’s didn’t sign Carl Crawford or trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but the accumulation of their “small” deals has greatly improved a club that could sneak up on many in the 2011 season.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29

I got nothing but rumors to discuss today, though I’m sure you won’t mind that given the clarity that I will bring to each free agents potential for the coming season.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels remain the most likely landing spot for Adrian Beltre. There are still rumblings out there that Beltre is seeking upwards of $85 million which seems like a crazy amount of dough to spend on a guy who is already 32 years old and one who has only one 30 homer season and just two with 100-RBI. Will the Angels bite since they missed out on their top target, Carl Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox? For more on Crawford give The End of Baseball? a read.

There are three relievers whose names are in the hopper right now as front burner type guys. Here are my thoughts on each.

Grant Balfour: On the Orioles radar, Balfour is the hardest thrower of this threesome. However, his average fastball is down two mph from its peak in 2008 when he was murder on hitters with a massive 12.65 K/9 mark as he held batters to a .143 average. He regressed in ’09 seeing his ERA almost triple to 4.81 as his K/9 rate plummeted to 9.22. While his K/9 rate was even worse last year at 9.11, he was able to cut a walk and a half off his BB/9 mark down to 2.77 (a career best) and that was a huge key to his return to success (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Somehow he has been able to avoid allowing homers year after year despite the fact that 45 percent of batted balls have gone skyward. At this point, he has proven that this is a trend to be taken seriously as his HR/FB rate has been below nine percent each of the past five years. A nice addition to any pen if expectations are kept in check.

Hideki Okajima: On the A’s radar, Okajima is coming off his worst season – by a lot. He missed his career ERA by more than a run and a half at 4.50, while his WHIP was above 1.26 for the first time in four years at a sickly 1.72. Hideki also saw his K/9 rate dip one and a half batters below his career rate of 6.46 per nine, while his BB/9 was also a career worst (3.91). Already 35 years old, someone will take a chance on a rebound from Hideki and just write off last season as an injury induced slump, though I have my doubts it was only that.

Chad Qualls: Also on the A’s radar, Qualls is the hurler from this group I would most like to see “my” team sign. How can I say that when his ERA was 7.32 last year? Am I off my rocker? Possibly, but hear me out.

(1) Qualls can be had on the cheap coming off that dreadful season, and that’s a huge check mark in his favor with middle relievers getting massive deals this offseason.

(2) From 2005-09 he was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. In that time he had never posted an ERA higher than 3.76 or a WHIP worse than 1.32 with an average effort of a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

(3) Qualls is one of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of generating ground balls with a career GB/FB mark of 2.30. Even last season, when he was awful, he still posted a strong 1.95 mark. When you induce that many grounders, success will usually follow.

(4) Despite atrocious ratios last season, Qualls still pitched pretty well – and no, I’m not still hungover from celebrating my Sirius/XM Experts League Championship in fantasy football. Look at the numbers.

2010: 7.47 K/9, 1.95 GB/FB, 16.8 LD-rate, 55.0 GB-rate
career: 7.35 K/9, 2.30 GB/FB, 17.3 LD-rate, 57.6 GB-rate

So why the struggles. How about an utter lack of anything resembling even an iota of good will?

2010: 16.8 LD-rate, .399 BABIP, 53.0 LOB%
career: 17.3 LD-rate, .309 BABIP, 71.9 LOB%

Clearly, this guy left his rabbit’s foot at home last year. His BABIP mark was the worst in baseball amongst pitchers who threw 50-innings, despite better than a career average line drive rate. That will not repeat in ’11. Qualls also went from a slightly better than average pitcher in terms of stranding runners to being an abysmal failure as he was, again, the worst pitcher in baseball in that category (min. 50 IP). Given the totality of his work last season I’m betting on a strong rebound after last year’s dismal showing that, quite simply, makes no logical sense.

By Ray Flowers

Cry Baby Cry

We all can whine about the plight of our teams. I’m sure you all have a story about how you missed on the guy you wanted to draft by one selection, or the guy you drafted seems to think that the aim of the game is to swing and miss rather than ripping line drives all over the field. I get it, believe me. So I’m gonna let the tears flow today and let you know how upset I’ve become with a few of the guys I have selected for my various fantasy baseball teams in 2009.

Mike Aviles: I certainly didn’t think he was going to hit .325 again, but .183? Currently on the DL with a strained right forearm, Aviles will only need to go 20 for his next 20 to raise his average up to .300 when he returns. I feel that’s doable – you?

Grant Balfour: Last year 1.54 ERA and a 12.65 K/9. This year, 5.48 ERA and a 8.61 K/9. A regression was coming, but to half of last year’s value?

Chris Davis: Twelve home runs is great. A .194 batting average, not so much. He could set a record for futility as well as he is whiffing 46.7% of the time. That’s right, he already has 77 Ks this season in 165 ABs, or more strikeouts that Albert Pujols has had in any of the last seven seasons.

Joey Devine: The potential closer a year after posting a 0.59 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, Devine didn’t throw a single regular season pitch before being sent to the DL and ultimately requiring elbow surgery costing him the entire season. Thanks Joey, not like I was counting on you for 30 saves or anything.

Rafael Furcal: Glad you had him in your top-5 at shortstop now that he is hitting .253 with one home run and three steals?

Corey Hart: What happened to that breakout campaign? After back-to-back 20/20 seasons he is barely on pace to go 20/10, though he is almost certain to set a career high in Ks with 50 in 48 games, almost halfway to last year’s worst of 109 in 157 games.

Howie Kendrick: The man can hit .300 in his sleep. He must be in a coma since he is batting .225.

Brandon Morrow: The Mariners’ reliever has a strong 8.22 K/9 mark. Oops. That’s his walks per nine inning mark. How amazingly putrid is that? By the way, his K/9 mark is 10.57.

Ricky Nolasco: So bad he was demoted to the minors where he has dominated in two starts. He has been exceedingly unlucky as his BABIP is astronomical at .402, but that doesn’t help to wick away the tears after he has posted a 9.07 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP through nine starts.

Alexei Ramirez: How had has he been this year? Despite the fact that he is batting .329 over his last 70 at-bats, the man is still hitting just .253 on the year. He is on pace for 30 steals, but the 10 home run pace is pretty awful for a guy who hit 21 last year in just 480 at-bats.

Alex Rios: Is he ever going to put it all together? His career best numbers across the board are .302-24-85-114-32. Currently he is on pace to hit about .275-22-80-80-12.

Jimmy Rollins: Hitting just .230 on the year, Rollins has only three home runs giving him 14 taters in his last 769 at-bats dating back to the start of 2008. Will you finally believe now that his 30 home run season of 2007 was a fluke?

Andy Sonnanstine: Luckily for him I drafted Nolasco or he would be feeling a lot more of my wrath for going 3-5 with a 7.66 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.

Rickie Weeks: Out for the year with wrist surgery. What could have been considering he was on pace to hit more than 30 home runs with about 100 RBI and 100 runs.

Chris Young: 25/25 as a rookie. 20/10 as a second year player. On pace for 10/10 as a third year player. Flipping great.

By Ray Flowers