Fantasy Beat – Playoff Time Is Here

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss the start of the fantasy football playoff season. They will discuss some strategies they use to win championships and debate which fantasy football playoff format is best.

Cecil Shorts, Montell Owens and Mike Thomas

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Comments: Greatest Hits

At the bottom of all my articles readers are encouraged to leave their thoughts on my work, to ask questions, or just to blow off some steam. I have to admit that there are some pretty good queries thrown up there at times. Today, I’ve compiled some of those thoughts into an article since I doubt most of you spend much time reading my responses unless they are to your own questions.

Jake – Is there any sort of format that you might suggest that combines a season long roto format along with some type of playoff at the end of the season?

BBGuys - Your issue of people stopping to care late in the year is common. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good answer on how to stop this. Reason being is this – playoffs take skill out of the mix and go more with luck. Do you want to give someone a “win” in a playoff week because they picked up Brandon Crawford and he had a better week than Troy Tulowitzki? Do you want to reward a 2-start James McDonald over a one start Roy Halladay? When you break the game down into playoff segments the sample size shrinks, and with it the luck factor goes up. To me, we are best served rewarding year long excellence versus weekly luck.

Mike – As much as I love Evan Longoria this year, were you tempted with Jacoby Ellsbury still available? For him to fall to #12 seems shocking to me.

*** This questions refers to The FSTA Draft that was held in Vegas during which I chose Longoria #10 overall instead of Ellsbury. Over at Fleaflicker they also have Longoria going off the board after Ellsbury.

BBGuys - Here’s the deal. Only 37.5% all all the top-15 selections the last eight years have returned top-15 production (that’s from the Baseball Forecaster). In essence, we all spend way too much time worry about our first round pick when they are more likely to fail to live up to expectations than to meet or exceed them. Second, Ellsbury’s game was his speed, and after averaging 60 SB his last two healthy seasons he saw his steal total fail to hit 40 last year. That’s a big concern for me. Third, never in his life did Ellsbury show 30 HR power. Remember, he had 20 homers in his first 349 games. Players just don’t hold on to gains like the one he showed last season. Sure Kirby Puckett and Jose Bautista did, but you get my point. I just can’t see Ellsbury holding on to his 17 percent HR/F rate. I also don’t think he’s a .320 hitter. If he goes .285-20-75-100-40 is he a first round pick? You could certainly argue that persuasively, but I don’t know if that would make him much different than Andrew McCutchen.

Marc in CO – In addition to waiting on a 1B, you also waited to pick a SS (Yunel Escobar in the 13th). Can you give us your thoughts on him in specific and the shortstop position in general in terms of draft strategy?

BBGuys - I waited on the shortstop because that’s how the draft played out. Also, since I had two second basemen, I didn’t need to worry about my MI spot, so it was as much a combination of factors as anything else. As for Escobar, I like what he brings. Not much upside power wise, he hits everything into the ground, an obviously he’s not a speed demon, but his skill set is stable. Take out 2010 and you have three nearly identical seasons in 2008-09, 2011. I’ll take .290-10-60-75-5 from my SS and be pretty happy with it since in reality he is my MI behind Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia.

Rick – Are you worried about the suspension of Ryan Braun? Do you think it will be the same old same old when he returns? Also now that this is out here are you worried that his numbers will fall off a cliff like Arod?

BBGuys – I’m not worried about Braun at all. Just expect 2/3 of his normal production for 2012 and you should be fine (just check out his rookie numbers to see how amazing he can be in limited playing time). MLB has done testing for years, so clearly we have to assume that Braun hasn’t been doing something illegal for a long time. In fact, I’m still not convinced that he took “steroids.”  Regardless, Braun is 28 this year – still very young. Arod is 36. Arod’s decline had nothing to do with getting of the juice, he was simply experience a slow down with age. Remember, Arod had 54 homers, 156 RBIs and a 1.067 OPS in 2007 – he used steroids in 2001-03.

Wesley – Hey Ray. What do you think of Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez? I feel they’re going to be good values and bounce back guys.

BBGuys - Two different stories. CarGo hit .295, went 20/20, and scored/knocked in 90 runs last year. There’s not much to “bounce back” from there. If he had played another 20 games we’d be talking about a .300-30-100-100-20 season. Expecting more than that is asking too much.

Crawford on the other hand is a prime bounce back candidate. according to Fleaflicker’s numbers, Crawford is being drafted inside the top-70 overall.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Football vs. Fantasy Baseball

It’s way too early to be talking about who to take in the first round of the 2012 fantasy baseball season (OK, it’s not way too early but it’s still early). I mean, I could swear that I’m still a wee bit faded from all the booze I inhaled over the holiday weekend when the calendar flipped to 2012. However, with the regular season in the NFL in our rear-view mirror, people are going to start to migrate back over to the world of baseball. Today, I’m going to explain why I feel that fantasy baseball is a better game than fantasy football, so grab that bottle of spiced rum you got for the holidays and pull up a chair.

(1) Fantasy Football doesn’t have enough starting positions.

In standard football leagues the starting lineup consists of 10 players: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, K, DEF

In standard fantasy baseball leagues there are nine starting pitchers and 23 overall starters. You can read more about the “standard” setup in SiriusXM Experts League Draft. I find the additional positions that need to be filled on a weekly basis more intriguing an enjoyable. Plus, I get the feeling of being able to personally mold my team based upon my choices versus just lock an loading for fantasy football.

(2) Fantasy Football is too formulaic.

Everyone knows you don’t have to take a defense or a kicker until your last two picks. In essence, you’re drafting four positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) for 95 percent of your draft. How tough is that? You have to draft five positions just for the infield in baseball.

Second, in fantasy football there’s really only two main ways to win. You can either build up a strong backfield or a strong group of wideouts. That’s totally different than baseball where you can build a power club, a speed team, a team focused just on pitching, a team focused just on pitching. There is more variability in fantasy baseball, largely because of the fact that there are more players drafted and a larger group of players in your starting lineup giving you more freedom to construct a winning lineup than the ‘just the facts ma’am’ approach in fantasy football.

(3) Fantasy football is only 16 unique snapshots.

A perfect example of what I’m talking about is that in the Livin’ The Fantasy Football League for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, I finished the regular season with an abysmal 5-8 record because I happened to play teams that scored the most points in the league against me. Despite that fact I led the entire league in fantasy points, that’s right I led the league in points, I finished three games under .500. In fantasy baseball when you lead the league in points you win the league (as it should be). A season should be about the first game to the last, not an artificially concocted series of matchups like fantasy football uses. Don’t even get me started on Head 2 Head either – I just hate it especially in fantasy baseball. Some of my thoughts on that topic can be found in Mailbag September 21, 2011.

Also, whereas fantasy football is only 16 days, fantasy baseball requires more of a commitment. If you only paid attention one day a week in fantasy baseball you would be screwed. In fantasy football you can get away with less than consistent concentration on your team.

(4) Fantasy football is a conveyor belt that takes expertise out of the mix.

In football the difference between fantasy stardom and the waiver-wire is almost always nothing more than opportunity. A perfect example is the Washington Redskins’ backfield in 2011. Tim Hightower was a top-20 RB when he was healthy at the start of the season. He got hurt. Ryan Torain came in and was a top-20 RB for one week. After the ‘Skins moved on from Torain, Roy Helu came on and was a top-20 RB. When Helu was injured late in the year Evan Royster was a top-20 RB the last two weeks of the year. The bottom line with fantasy football is that offensive systems are in place an it’s just a matter of who is in the role at the moment (some back is gonna touch the ball 15-20 times a week). Therefore, if you owned Hightower all you had to do to cover yourself was to also add Helu. It took no thought to do that, you merely “handcuffed” the starter with his backup.

In baseball, that strategy would NEVER work. If Albert Pujols is hurt you can go an add Mark Trumbo thinking that he would become the everyday first baseman for the Angels. However, Pujols is a .300 hitter with 40 homer power whereas Trumbo is a .250 hitter with 30 homer power. Just because the “backup” enters the starting lineup in baseball doesn’t mean he will be able to replace the “starter’s” production. In fact, often times the secondary player may not even be 50 percent effect as the starter. Therefore, you almost never want to simply add the “backup” in baseball – you’re usually better off looking to add someone else to fill the vacant spot. It’s like this. Football is a digital camera – you just point and shoot – whereas baseball is a Leica camera. It might take a little more work, but you have a much better chance of not only getting a better picture but also being able to manipulate the image in a way that is pleasing to you if you used the “real” camera.

Don’t get me wrong, I do enjoy fantasy football, but I’m also very happy to see the approach of the fantasy baseball season because it’s time to take my mind off cruise control and engage it in some active driving on the autobahn.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 21, 2011

There are only days left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season. With that fact, let’s look forward to 2012 with today’s mailbag piece from questions that were submitted at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Is Melky Cabrera a top-20 OF going into 2012 season and is he worthy of a keeper spot in 16 team league (keeping eight)?
– @JakobMD

This will likely be a hot button question for many heading into 2012, so why not address it in 2011.

Coming into the 2011 season, Cabrera was one of those guys that you weren’t overly happy to have as your fourth or fifth outfielder in a 12 team mixed leagues. He wasn’t going to kill you you any category, but he also wasn’t going to a big help. In fact, the best 5×5 numbers that he posted from 2005-10 would lead you to a season of .280-13-73-75-13. Again, those aren’t horrible numbers, but nothing in that line really pops. In addition, his slash line of .267/.328/.379 from 2005-10 was actually worse than the league average of .269/.337/.425. He just wasn’t anything other than average.

This year that’s changed. Cabrera is two homers away from going 20/20, and he’s also hitting a career best .305. Mind you, he’d only hit better than .275 once, and had never hit 15 homers or stolen 15 bases in a season. One of the reasons for that counting category growth is that he’s posted a whopping 686 plate appearances, 158 more than he averaged from 2005-10. When a guy racks up 700 plate appearances he’s going to have solid counting numbers.

The real question I have is has he shown any skills growth? Let’s take a look.

This year his line drive rate is 20.5 percent. His career mark is 19.4 percent.
This year his ground ball rate is 47.1 percent. His career mark is 48.7 percent.
This year his fly ball rate is 32.4 percent. His career mark is 31.9 percent.

Nothing has changed there.

This year his walk rate is 4.8 percent. Not only is that well below his career rate of 7.4 percent, it’s also a career worst.

This year his K-rate is 13.3 percent. Not only is that worse than his career mark of 12.0, it’s also a career worst.

Those are not changes for the good.

This year Cabrera has a BABIP mark of .330. The owner of a career mark of .298, Cabrera’s BABIP has been under that .298 mark in each of his previous four seasons.

This year his HR/F ratio is 10.2 percent. That’s certainly not a crazy number, but it’s 40 percent higher than his 7.0 career rate. This will also mark only the second season of his career with a mark above his 7.0 percent career rate.

So what does all of that mean? It means that the reason that Cabrera has been so impressive this year is a little luck (BABIP, HR/F) and a big time result of all of his plate appearances. Throw in a declining walk rate and a rising K-rate, and the smart money would be on Cabrera failing to duplicate his 2011 efforts next season. Given that, I simply cannot suggest to anyone that Cabrera has a legitimate shot at being a top-20 outfielder in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be kept if 128 players are being protected in your league.

Thanks for the great advice and info. Came in 2nd in my 12T H2H league. Quick Q: Why do you prefer roto over H2H?
– @samuelrsantana

There are so many reasons why baseball should be rotisserie over head to head (H2H), let me count the ways.

(1) Baseball is a marathon with 162 games. H2H turns that marathon into a sprint. If you’re looking for the fantasy game to somewhat approximate the on field product, then the fantasy game should operate as a mirror image of that actual game. In baseball that means you should play a season of 1-162 games played, not some artificially contrived session of a weekly match up. Let me give you a concrete example of why this is in point #2.

(2) We all know that Albert Pujols will hit .300-30-100 (he’s on the cusp of doing it for the 11th straight season to start his career). However, we really have no idea when he will go deep, when he will produce hits, and when he will knock runners in. If you’re playing in a H2H match up what happens if Pujols hits .450 with three homers and 10 RBI? You’ll likely win that week. What happens though if he hits .150 with no homers and no RBI the following week? You would likely loose that week. Still, if Pujols followed this path, alternating greatness with putrid work, he’d end the year batting .300 with something like 39 homers and 130 RBI. That’s a phenomenal season, right? However, in H2H he’d be a killer to your club in those 13 weeks that he disappeared. Baseball is about consistency and working through the grind as much as anything. When you play H2H you remove that aspect of the game completely.

(3) Would you ever draft Gavin Floyd over Dan Haren? That’s like saying you would prefer to cuddle up with Cate Blanchett over Brooklyn Decker? However, there are scenarios where you would end up starting Floyd over Haren simply because you’re looking at one week segments (there is no scenario in which Cate would be the choice over Brooklyn). What if Haren was facing the Yankees and Floyd was pitching in Seattle and Oakland – would you start Floyd because he was a two start pitcher on the road, where he has success, in two parks that favor the hurler? Even worse, would you start a guy like Rick Porcello or Luke Hochevar over Haren if they had two starts? The answer is you might, and we’ve all made that decision at one point or another. However, does this make any sense? Of course it doesn’t.  We’re sometimes “forced” to go with an inferior pitcher merely because we need the starts to keep up with our opponent in the H2H format. In this instance we’re not rewarding the fantasy owner who rostered the players with the best skill, we’re merely rewarding those that were first two the waiver-wire to add a 2-start pitcher. There isn’t any skill in that.

I’m just going to say it: H2H has infected baseball because of it’s proliferation in fantasy football. It’s one of the worst trends to hit fantasy baseball – ever. If you want to go soft and set your lineup once a week, I can live with that. However, if you want to make baseball a one week match up against an opponent you’re bastardizing the game of baseball completely.

There, I said it.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.