Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.10

I was away this weekend on another mini vacation (Monterey this time), but baseball never tops. Don’t think a romantic weekend away precluded me from doing my duty though. I sat there, looking at the waves crash on the beach, as I put in my bids for the waiver-wire this week. Here’s how it went down.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Sent Ruben Tejada to the DL. I know big loss right? A big loss though was losing Bryce Harper to the DL, though he didn’t exactly help out the cause last week as the Nationals lamely waited to place him onto the DL with his knee issue (lineups are set weekly in this league with the chance to remove players placed on the DL mid-week). To play shortstop Pedro Florimon Jr. was added for $1. To fill in the outfield void I was able to add Chris Denorfia for $1. Surprised as all heck to get him for only $1 in a 15 teamer. He’s hit .303 on the year and .339 the past three weeks. Maybe the fact that it’s an OBP league knocked his value down, but .349 is still playable. My final move was to drop Tyler Flowers, sorry cuz, to add Wellington Castillo for $1. Flowers just wasn’t getting it done. No power, poor OBP, little run production. Time to cut the cord. I had bid on Jason Castro two weeks ago, but my $6 bid was beat at $7.
Notable bids: Trevor Rosenthal $8 (I bid $3). Really surprised he went for that much. Daniel Descalso ($2), Jason Bay ($2), Tyler Skaggs ($1), Chris Archer ($1), and Christian Yelich ($1).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): I dropped Chris Nelson to add Kevin Youkilis back into the mix. Remember, in this league that if you remove a player from your starting lineup that isn’t injured, you lose him. Therefore, I lost Nelson to the wire (injured players have to be activated within two weeks or you lose them to the waiver-wire). It’s a restrictive league in terms of the moves you can make. At least Aaron Harang and Ubaldo Jimenez have finally started to turn things around on the hill for my club.
Notable bids: David Lough ($6), Freddy Garcia ($5), Alexander Torres ($4), Chris Dickerson ($4)

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

FSTA (13 team mixed): My DL is six players deep, or it was six deep as HanRam and Youkilis are both on the cusp of returning to active duty. Here’s what I did in terms of adding players. I dropped Ryan Roberts and added Yan Gomes ($19). Mauer/Martin are a solid duo at C, but I took a shot that Gomes will continue to be productive and play regularly with Carlos Santana being a DH/1B type a good deal of the time for the Indians. Denard Span isn’t stealing bases and he’s hit .245 over the past month. He went away for Matt Joyce ($27). For those that haven’t noticed Joyce is hitting .310 with 16 RBIs in his last 23 games. My final move was to drop WHIP killer Felix Doubront for Drew Smyly. It’s a forward thinking move since Smyly has little value as a middle reliever though he’s been great this season with a 2.08 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 36 Ks in 34.2 innings this season.
Notable bids: Nick Franklin ($211), Michael Wacha ($123), Ike Davis ($100), Chris Archer ($73), Rex Brothers ($71)

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Will the pain ever end? Probably not. Adam Dunn continues to stink. B.J. Upton showed some slight up of late but he’s stunk. Juan Pierre? Garbage. Austin Jackson on DL. Rajai Davis on DL. Great outfield huh? On the hill Axford lost his job eons ago and now Chris Perez is on the DL. I know I’m complaining, but that sinking of my OF and my closers has killed my team. Jeremy Guthrie went bye-bye while I added Edinson Volquez for $1 (Guthrie’s hot start finally evaporated). I also added J.J. Putz. He could be back in a bit, and as you saw, I’m grasping at straws for help in the bullpen. The cost was letting go of David Hernandez. I added both guys for $1.
Notable bids: Nick Franklin ($29), Michael Wacha ($15), Chris Archer ($12), Jeff Locke ($5), Vinnie Pestano ($3), Gordon Beckham ($2)

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire, and the open waiver-wire blows chunks. Example of what happened this week. We’ve got a fella in this league who lives fantasy baseball while the rest of us are living life. As a result, he’s made 61 moves as of this writing, no one else has made more than 25 (I’m at 17 moves), and he always gets the players that are called up. Take a look at the two most recent moves he made as he added Luke Gregerson and Rex Brothers. He got both the hot adds at reliever cause of his dilligence. Amazingly, he’s only in 7th place. I dropped Brandon Morrow when he was placed on the DL and added Yan Gomes to help cover for the struggling Wellington Castillo. Since I didn’t do a write up last weekend cause I was away on a mini vacation I should also note that I added Domonic Brown and Michael Wacha last week.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Dustin Ackley was demoted. Great. I was able to slot in Martin Prado at second base and moved Hanley Ramirez off the DL to the corner infield position to cover for Prado in this league. Rickey Nolasco was added to the mix at a cost of $23. Hey, I needed an arm to cover for Brandon Morrow who was placed on the DL. It’s a never ending marathon of injury and healthy players isn’t it?
Notable bids: Yasel Puig ($202), Vinnie Pestano ($107), Luke Gregerson ($106), John Lackey ($37), Tyler Skaggs ($37), Shaun Marcum ($26)

FANBALL (13 team mixed): David Phelps is dealing with some arm woes, and though he’s still expected to pitch this week I wanted a healthy arm. In came Ricky Nolasco for $3. I bet Nolasco tanks now that I’ve added him in about half my leagues. I also let Raul lbanez go for Lucas Duda. The Mets’ outfielder has two homers and six RBIs in his last 10 games.
Notable bids: Luke Gregerson ($17), Rex Brothers ($5), Anthony Rendon ($4), Tyler Skaggs ($3), Zach Cozart ($3), Jason Bay ($3)
By Ray Flowers

Memorial Day Fun

Livin’ the life.

It’s a holiday, and though I’m back at it Monday, I did take a couple of days off over the weekend for a Memorial Day break. I went to Cambria and stayed at a wild bed & breakfast joint that was plenty o’ fun (Victoria’s Last Resort), and then drove down the coast to see Hearst Castle (this is a picture of the fancy pool with my feet as I took a break from the tour to enjoy the view). It was a nice little break away.

The Gnome loves the fire… it compliments his smoking hot bat.

Nick Franklin is up as Dustin Ackley was sent to the minors. Franklin needs to be added in every format (.324/.440/.472 in 39 games at Triple-A), while those of you holding on to Ackley might as well hit the waiver-wire and find something else that can help you out.

Oh, I went with the official Baseball Guys’ Gnome too. Some action photos of him follow.

Hanley Ramirez is running the bases. Seems like his hammy is improving. Could be back in a week to 10 days maybe?

Fernando Rodney is still awful. Five blown saves, 18 walks an a 6.05 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over 19.1 innings. His May numbers are even worse: 7.36 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, two loses, four blown saves. The team STILL says he will be the closer. Don’t get it. Meanwhile Joel Peralta has a 1.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 27 Ks in 23.1 innings…

You rang? That’s one bright colored phone.

Going great, likely to exceed expectations by a large amount, but still thy make me nervous…

Starling Marte in May: .278/.333/.444. Be wary of the approach (22 Ks, three walks in 23 games).

Carlos Gomez in May (homers be damned): .291/.319/.535. Be wary of the approach: 27 Ks, four walks in 23 games.

The Nit Wit House in Cambria which is totally made out of junk.

Finally Home

I’ve spent the last three days in the hospital with the whopper of all illnesses. Try throwing up 20+ times (literally), having cramps to bad that you can’t straighten out your fingers for nearly two hours, yeah, it was great times, and taken your first ambluance ride ever. On the slow road to recovery now though. Thanks for all the well wishes to all of you, I really appreciate it.

Some observations from my hospital bed.

Why couldn’t the Dodgers activate Hanley Ramirez 12 hours earlier? It was too late for me, and I assume you, to activate him for your weekly lineups.

Matt Cain looked like Tim Lincecum against the D’backs. In control for all but one inning of his outing. Cain’s HR/9 mark has to turn around. When it does, his performance will revert to normal expectations. Buy low if his current owner is burned out and ready to move on.

I don’t care what they say, I look really good in a hospital gown. Really good.

Nolan Arenado was called up by the Rockies and hit a home run in his second game. The hype train is rolling down the tracks and gaining steam by the minute. Be careful. Arenado was hitting over .360 at Triple-A this season, but he hit only .285 in Double-A in 2012. Could he hit .300 in the pro’s this season? Doubtful. His average should be solid, but I worry about the power. Sure he plays in Colorado, but you have to be able to lift the ball. Since the start of the 2011 season Arenado’s fly ball rate is 33 percent, which is less than the big league averagem (around 35-36 percent). It’s very difficult to be a big home run hitter with a mark that low. Two points. (1) Over the last two years, Arenado has played 134 games each season an averaged 16 homers a campaign. Sixteen. (2) Do you know how man guys hit 25 homers last year with a fly ball rate of 33 or less percent? Billy Butler, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Dayan Viciedo, Chase Headley and Adam Jones. That’s it if I didn’t miss someone in my illness induced state. Also remember, those fellas had six full months of action. The most Arenado can have is five. Might sound crazy to some, but think Joe Randa for 2013.

I need a shower. After three days, I think it’s about time.

To see how others are evaluating players like Arenado don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

DraftDay Partners with BaseballGuys

You know me, I’m a huge fan of rotisserie fantasy baseball over Head to Head. However, there’s another type of fantasy baseball game that really piques my interest and won’t cause me to start frothing out the mouth out of anger (grrrr H2H), and that is the daily fantasy baseball game. To that end, BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com for the 2013 Fantasy Baseball Season. What does that mean? Before we get to that, let me tell you a little bit about DraftDay.com and why you should be paying attention.

Did you do your draft in early March only to then learn that Chase Headley, Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, David Freese and Ryan Madson wouldn’t be ready to start the season? Do you feel like you’re already hosed when it comes to the 2013 fantasy baseball season? That’s where DraftDay.com enters the scene as something that you should really be interested in.

DraftDay allows you to play fantasy baseball every day of the season, just like traditional fantasy baseball, but you can select a new lineup on a daily basis. You’re not tied into a draft and then forced to play it out regardless of what happens. DraftDay offers daily fantasy games. Put a team together on Monday. Don’t like how that team performed? Well then just submit another lineup on Tuesday, on Wednesday etc. Heck, you can do two, three, seven, nine teams a day if you want. You literally set your lineup every day (you can even select multiple different lineups each day). You chose your lineup based on a salary cap with a $100,000 roster total and the following positions to fill: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, DH and two pitchers. The scoring system is easy to follow as well – you don’t need to understand how to calculate WAR to understand how it works.

BATTERS

Single = 5 pt
Double = 10 pts
Triple = 15 pts
Home Run = 20 pts
Run = 5 pt
RBI = 5 pt
Walk = 5 pt
HBP = 5 pt
Stolen Base = 10 pts
Caught Stealing = -5 pts
Out = -1 pts* Note – Defined by at-bats minus hits

PITCHERS

Win = 10 pts
Loss = -5 pts
Earned Run = -3 pt
IP = 3 pts*
Strikeout (K) = 3 pts
Walk = -1 pts
Hit = -1 pts
HBP = -1 pts
* Fractional scoring per out.

Pitchers Bonus:

Complete Game = 5 pts
Shut Out = 5 pts
No Hitter = 5 pts
Perfect Game = 5 pts

Simple, straightforward and easy to win. Speaking of winning… you win your contest and you get paid real cash. In fact, in most contests the top-5 finishers (at least), end up walking away with actual cash winnings. Contests run from as low as $1 dollar up to $200, with prized varying based upon the number of entrants in each contests.

Some games you might want to checkout.

Today’s contest is the $5K Moonshot with a $1,000 1st prize.

The “Mendoza Line” game where you break the 200 point threshold and split the prize.

You can even take on Ray Flowers each day in the Daily $5 game. It’s free to sign up, and if you beat The Oracle you’re eligible for $5 free dollars to spend at Draftday.

So there it is. An easy way to make a few bucks every single day of the major league season. There’s also a chance to take me on, who doesn’t want to put the hurt on The Oracle, and I’ll be writing an article on Tuesday’s and Friday’s for DraftDay giving my advice on who you should get in your starting lineups.

The crack of the bat, the smell of the grass… playball !

By Ray Flowers

Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part I, Rounds 1-14

For the fifth straight year I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL.com (you can click on the link to see how everyone else in the draft evaluated their own selections). Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be your truly). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the third overall pick in the draft which was completed just wrapped up as the month of February came to a conclusion).

A little bit about the league and what to expect in the three part piece.

I’ll break down my draft, pick-by-pick. Part I will be a review of selections 1-14. In Part II I’ll review selections 15-28. Finally, in Part III, I’ll give an overview of the draft and share how my team worked out, where I missed out on players, and let you know if The Oracle made any mistakes (shockingly he made one glaring mistake).

12 teams, 28 rounds
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
9 pitchers: P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P
Bench: five spots

Round 1: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
The most consistent hitter in the game. He lacks the speed of others taken at the top of most drafts, but he makes up for it with unmatched consistent excellence. I would never have taken Mike Trout here, so I was very pleased when this future HOFamer fell to me.

Round 2: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS
If a down year is 20/20, and that player qualifies at two positions, sign me up. HanRam has been a .250 hitter the past two years, and that’s obviously a significant issue, but his ability to contribute across the board while giving me flexibility is well worth drafting at this spot, though I was secretly pining for Dustin Pedroia who went one spot ahead of me.

Round 3: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Starlin Castro
I really wanted to take David Wright here. However, with a 3B (Cabrera) and another 3B eligible player (Hanley) already on my roster with my first two picks, I couldn’t justify locking up my corner infield spot this early with a third 3B eligible player.

Round 4: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Austin Jackson, OF
For the second time in three rounds the guy I wanted was taken one spot ahead of me (this time it was B.J. Upton who I also considered in the third round). At this point of the draft I wanted to get an athletic outfielder which I was able to accomplish.

Round 5: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shin-Soo Choo, OF
I could have gone the route of Michael Bourn here, but there seem to be players falling much later with similar skills (Pierre, Revere types). In the 5th I went with another across the board talent in Choo who should thrive hitting in Great American Ballpark.

Round 6: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Martin Prado, 3B/OF
As I continue to pile up offense, I targeted a versatile hitter who qualifies at two spots. Prado’s a nice little hitter, and I know Howard Bender wanted him badly so why not take him. A .300 season with 10/15 and 100 runs seems possible.

Round 7: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yadier Molina, C
You can make a legitimate case that my team, after seven picks, has to be looked at as a club that could hit .300. It’s not often you can say that. However, Molina was my third choice as the two players I had teed up – Hill and Bumgarner – went with the two selections before my spot came up.

Round 8: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James Shields, SP
Others might be nervous with Shields as their top arm. I’m not. He’s about as stable as they come on the hill, get’s a lot of punchouts (8.82 per nine last year), and combines that skill with an increasing ground ball rate (52 percent in ’12).

Round 9: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yovani Gallardo, SP
I was faced with a real toss up between the power arm and consistency of Gallardo, and the likely better ratios but less dominating arm that Johnny Cueto brings. Since Cueto is coming back from an injury, I went with Gallardo.

Round 10: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Nick Markakis, OF
Markakis is exactly the type of player I like to target. He’s consistently solid across the board, is a veteran, and his value is depressed since he’s coming off an injury plagued season. Many don’t know that per 162 games his 5×5 line is .295-18-85-89-9. I’ll gladly take that.

Round 11: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Trumbo, OF/1B
He was amazing in the first half, then he was awful in the second. All told he hit 32 homers with 95 RBIs while batting .268. I’ll gladly take a repeat at this point of the draft from the dual position threat.

Round 12: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dexter Fowler
Will he ever learn to hit on the road? His BABIP was league leading last year so the average might fall a tad from .300, but I think there could be a 20/20 season here.

Round 13: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Ben Revere, OF
Smart to take him with Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp still on the board? Probably not, but I’m a big fan of Revere’s speed game (turns out I was right and should have waited to draft Pierre rounds later).

Round 14: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jon Lester, SP
I believe Lester will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

I’ll continue my review in my next column by looking at selections from rounds 15-28.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager had a great season last year relative to his draft day cost (think back to your mixed league draft… was his name even called out?). Not many are taking note this year given the fact that he plays for the Mariners and that nothing he does really jumps off the page, but that doesn’t mean he is someone that you should be ignoring late in mixed leagues.

First, a huge negative with Seager. Last season, in many leagues, he qualified as a second baseman (in addition to third base). Given that second sackers with strong numbers are a bit harder to find than those type of producers at third base, we secretly wish every infielder in baseball qualified at second base. Obviously, they don’t. In the case of Seager, which I pointed out in Position Eligibility Matters, Seager will only be third base eligible in most leagues in 2013 after he appeared in 138 games at third base but only 18 at second base last season (14 of those games at second were starts). That’s certainly a ding to the fantasy outlook of Seager. However, does that ‘ding’ mean people will ignore him to the point that he represents another solid draft day buy?

Quick, how many third base eligible players had 20 homers and 10 steals last year? The answer is five: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion and Seager. That mix of pop an a little speed is a solid draw when it comes to Seager. On the flip it’s fair to question how much more he has to give in either category. A look at his minor league record shows a moderate performer in both homers and steals. In 2010 Seager had 14 homers before he went deep 10 times in 2011. That’s not exactly the track record of a guy who appears likely to increase his 20 homer total from last season. It’s not like he was out of control last year though – his HR/F ratio was only 9.8 percent, a totally repeatable number, and his 42.3 percent fly ball rate was also only slightly elevated (the league average is about 35 percent). If given a chance at another 600 at-bats he could repeat the homer total of last season.

As for the steals, I’m less certain there. Not an overly fast player, he’s also shown the propensity to run himself into trouble. In 2010 he recorded 13 steals but was caught 12 times. In 2011 he stole14 bases but was caught seven times. Last year with the Mariners he stole 13 bags while being caught five times. Studies have shown that you have to steal bases with a success rate of at least 67 percent in order to not hurt your team. The last three years he has 40 steals while being caught 24 times. That’s a 63 percent conversion rate meaning he’s actually harming his team more than he is helping it. Good managers should be giving him the red light at least part of the time, though he could steal swipe lower level double digits bags again.

Seager has an 80+ percent contact rate in the big leagues, and that’s a bit above average though it’s not exactly something to write your Congressperson about. He doesn’t strikeout much but he also doesn’t walk a lot, so his 0.40 BB/K ratio through two seasons is slightly below the league average.

Seager hit poorly last season at home: .223/.307/.325
Seager hit poorly against lefties: .237/.281/.377
Seager hit poorly during the day: .228/.320/.389

I’m not saying there aren’t concerns with Seager, there are as I’ve noted, and there is also little chance that he becomes an All-Star in 2013. He doesn’t have an outstanding skill that props up his fantasy value, but if he’s allowed to take the field 150+ times again the counting numbers aren’t going to embarrass anyone. Remember Casey Blake? It always seemed like he was undervalued on draft day so you grabbed him in the late rounds in mixed leagues when there was no one else left, and by the time the season was over he always turned a nice profit for you. That’s the kind of player Seager is. You roster him late in drafts, at a point where if he fails it won’t hurt too bad, but also at a point where his 20-70-60-10 line provides you a tidy profit. That means he is nothing more than a corner infield option in mixed leagues. However, in AL-only leagues his value improves significantly to the point where you should be feeling pretty about your prospects if you can roster him at a reasonable price.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Baseball, Hockey, & Hoops Oh My!

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray are joined by the one and only Ray Flowers. They will discuss some fantasy hockey, breaking down goaltenders and the FSTA draft where Ray drafted. The guys will also make sure you get your Fantasy Basketball fix as Trevor and Justin break down waiver wire guys like; Royce White, Ed Davis, Tiago Splitter and more.

NHL Talk: Braden Holtby, Michael Neuvirth, Henrik Lundqvist, Saku Koivu, Vladimir Tarasenko, P.K. Subban, Ryan O’Reilly, Ryan Smyth, Jay Bouwmeester, Brad Boyes

MLB Talk: Hanley Ramirez, James Shields, Clayton Kershaw

A link to the 2013 FSTA Draft.

NBA Talk: Royce White, Ed Davis, Tiago Splitter, Carlos Delfino, Ed Davis

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.