Player Profile: Cliff Pennington

Often times we find ourselves spending all our time talking and thinking about the elite players. People always want to know who to take in the first round or when they should grab their ace on draft day.  At the same time, people rarely talk about those glue guys that often make the difference between winning and losing. Think back to the draft table in 2011. How many people cared when they called out the names of Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Jhonny Peralta? Yet when all was said and done all three had impressive seasons that helped many a squad to a championship. Today I’ll highlight one of those players who you might want to think about late in drafts (especially in mixed leagues that use the corner and middle infield positions).

Cliff Pennington, for those of you who don’t know, plays shortstop for the Athletics, you know, that green and yellow team on the west coast that seemingly trades away it’s best players year after year. A decent little ballplayer, Pennington has a couple of things going for him. First, no one really cares about him. That means he will be extremely cheap to add to your squad on draft day. He’ll also likely make a solid addition if your starter at shortstop comes down with an injury early in the year forcing you to hit the waiver-wire looking for a warm body. Second, Pennington steals bases. He’s not going to push Jose Reyes for the positional lead in steals but he’s swiped 43 bases the last two years, a total only five other shortstops can better (Reyes 69, Elvis Andrus 69, Erick Aybar 52, Hanley Ramirez 52 and Jimmy Rollins 47). In an AL-only league, or a 15 team mixed league, 20+ steals from a middle infielder is a decent addition to any club.

Now I’m not going to sit here and blow soft kisses to you to hide the fact that Pennington isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. The owner of 18 career homers, Pennington has nonetheless knocked in an average of 51 runs the past two seasons while scoring an average of 61 runs a campaign. Those numbers are all blah, I agree, but when combined they’re really not that bad a set. Guess how many shortstops, the past two years, have scored 120 runs, knocked in 100 and stolen 40 bases? Rather shockingly the answer is just four: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond and Pennington.

While consistent playing time helps with the counting numbers (Pennington has appeared in an average of 152 games the past two years), it will also allow his less than impressive batting average to drag your club down. A .259 career hitter, Cliff has hit .250 and .264 the last two years. There is some hope for a potential run at .280. After all, Pennington does own an impressive 22.1 percent line drive rate. One would expect a pretty high BABIP given that impressive LD-rate, but instead Pennington owns a .310 career mark that is only .010 points above a league average number. As we all should know by now, players set their own benchmarks in this respect, so while it seems like Pennington should post a higher BABIP maybe he won’t though his .342 mark from 2009 does give some hope. Toss in a 0.47 BB/K mark for his career though and the prospects of any substantial batting growth should be concerned a bit of a long-shot.

Pennington is not going to pull an Asdrubal Cabrera in 2012. He’s not going to morph into a difference maker, but if he shows only some slight improvement, let’s say to the .270-10-60-70-20 range, he could be an extremely useful up the middle depth play in deep mixed leagues. Don’t reach on Pennington at any point in your draft, but when you’re sitting there in the 25th round wondering whose name you should call out consider the shortstop of the Oakland Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors

I bemoan the Yankees and Red Sox all the time, and with good reason I believe. Not only does the national media seem to think that they are the only two teams in baseball, they routinely spend money like they are printing it in the basement. So far this offseason those two teams get a pass as it’s the Angels and the Marlins who are playing with Monopoly money.

The Marlins have a new stadium that cost $640 million, and for some reason that has led them to think that they are going to be able to sell it out for the next decade. Good luck with that. The fact of the matter is that the Marlins have had some great teams over the years but the fans just haven’t consistently come to the park (with so much to do in Florida, I can understand why that is the case). Will that change after the moves the team is making? It had better or this will be a disastrous situation in a few years (a cycle that they have unfortunately been through multiple times).

The Marlins fired off the first huge salvo of the the offseason when they made Jose Reyes their new shortstop. Of course, we’re now getting this back and forth from Hanley Ramirez who apparently feels disrespected that the Fish would bring in someone to play his position. Get over yourself Hanley. Reyes is a better defensive shortstop, that’s just the fact, and his addition to the lineup is a huge infusion of talent and skill. Suck it up, get back to full health, and cause some serious damage with your new running mate homie.
Cost: 6 years, $108 million

The Marlins also signed two hurlers to bolster the staff. They added Heath Bell to lock down the ninth inning on a 3-year deal with a fourth year option. They then went out and surprised everyone by adding Mark Buehrle on a four year contract when most didn’t think they were truly in on the lefty until late in the game (I will have write ups on both players in the near future in the ever popular Player Profile series). Bell is a top-10 closer, and while Buehrle has never been an elite arm, he has 11-straight seasons of 200-innings and 10 wins, and no pitcher in the game can match that feat.
Cost: Bell – 3 years, $27 million ($9 million option)
Buehrle – 4 years, $58 million

TOTAL COST: $193 million (plus $9 million option on Bell)

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

The Angels, apparently frustrated that they didn’t get to blow their wad last year on Adrian Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford, have gone totally bonkers. Not only did they grab the greatest hitter of our generation, they also added the best starting pitcher on the market for good measure.

Out of nowhere, an I’m talking something akin to the admission by Darth Vader that he was Luke Skywalker’s father, the Angels swooped in and signed Albert Pujols after everyone in the media had him going to the Marlins or Cardinals. The Angels offer was $40 or so million more than the other two teams were reportedly willing to spend. The result is that Pujols will receive the second largest contract in baseball history behind only the 10 year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees. Already 31 years old, I think it’s foolish to give Pujols a 10 year deal, but that’s what it took to obtain his services and Angels’ owner Arte Moreno would not be denied his prize this offseason.
Cost: 10 years, $250-260 million

Needing a compliment for their new toy on offense, the Angels also signed the best pitcher on the free agent market, C.J. Wilson (for my thoughts on what Wilson brings to the table, give his Player Profile a read). Given that estimates all offseason penned Wilson as a pitcher who wanted, and was likely to receive, $100 million, can it be said that the Angels actually got a bargain here? A rotation of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Wilson and Ervin Santana sounds mighty impressive and should cause plenty of AL teams to be Nervous Nancies heading into the 2012 season.
Cost: 5 years, $75 to $77.5 million

TOTAL COST: $325 to 337.5 million

Can money by a championship? We’ll find out as money is flying around this offseason with no regard to the fact that the United States economy is not exactly booming right now. Time will tell, but as we’ve seen many times in sports, throwing money around isn’t always the answer.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Shortstop

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2011 SHORTSTOP Top-10
1 Hanley Ramirez
2 Troy Tulowitzki
3 Jimmy Rollins
4 Jose Reyes
5 Derek Jeter
6 Alexei Ramirez
7 Stephen Drew
8 Elvis Andrus
9 Yunel Escobar
10 Rafael Furcal

Ramirez had a four year run going of hitting at least .300 with 21 homers, 67 RBI, 92 runs and 27 steals. He didn’t reach a single one of those numbers in 2011 (.243-10-45-55-20). He eventually had surgery on his injured shoulder, and the hope is that he will be ready for the start of the 2012 season.

Tulowitzki hit 30 homers and powered a career best 105 runners across the plate as he hit .302 and posted a third straight OPS of over .900 at .916. However, he also scored a three year low with 81 runs, and he failed to record double-digit steals for the first time in three years with nine.

Rollins rebounded from an injury induced slump in 2010, but the numbers were still far from the elite totals that he had posted in the past (.268-16-63-87-30). At 32 years old he can still be a mighty productive player, but keep your expectations in check when drafting him in 2012.

Reyes wants someone to show him the money. He went out and hit .337, the best mark in the NL, and he scored 101 runs for the Metropolitans. That run scored mark was impressive given that he appeared in only 126 games, but he stole “only” 39 bags, a disappointing total for a guy who stole at least 56 bases each year from 2005-2008.

Jeter hit six homers, the first time he ever failed to go deep 10 times, and he also scored a career worst 84 runs. On the positive tip he produced 61 RBI, an 8th straight year of at least that number, an a late run at the dish resulted in him hitting .297 on the year.

Ramirez always seems to be slumping, but in the end there are few more productive, and consistent, performers at the position. For the fourth time in four years he hit 15 homers with 68 RBI, and he scored 81 runs, swiped seven bags, and hit a passable .269.

Drew fractured his right ankle and as a result suited up for just 86 games. He was productive when on the field with five homers, 45 RBI and 44 runs scored, but he simply didn’t play enough to be worthy of much of anything this season.

Andrus slightly improved his average up to .279, the same trick he pulled off with his OBP of .347 (both three year bests). Andrus also posted 3-years bests in runs (96), hits (164), doubles (27), RBI (60) and steals (37).

Escobar had a lost 2010 season causing many to forget, or at least overlook, him on draft day. I wasn’t one of those who walked by without looking. Escobar ended up producing a season that fell right in line with his 2008-09 efforts as he hit .290 with 11 homers, 48 RBI, 77 runs scored an a .782 OPS for the Blue Jays.

Furcal had yet another injury filled an unproductive season split between the Dodgers and the Cardinals hitting just .231 with eight homers, 28 RBI, 44 runs and nine steals in just 87 games. Per game he was  productive in the counting categories, but for a second straight year the 34 year old Furcal failed to appear in 100 games.

Hit: Yunel Escobar #9

Bust: Rafael; Furcal #10
It’s too easy to list Hanley Ramirez, and since we all know how pathetic he was, it doesn’t serve much purpose to blast him here again. We all know he was the biggest bust in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Braun: Best of the Bunch

On March 16th, I know most of you can’t remember as far back as September 16th, but trust me on March 16th I wrote a piece that I titled Who is #3? At the time there was a pretty general consensus that Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez were the top-2 options in the fantasy game. Proving yet again that this is far from an exact science, Pujols had a solid but unspectacular season for him (.299-37-99-105-9), whereas Ramirez struggled mightily before finally succumbing to shoulder surgery (.243-10-45-55-20 in 92 games).

Since there was no consensus as to who should have been drafted #3 overall I went through a bunch of names up for consideration at that spot in the above linked piece before I settled on Ryan Braun. Before I get to Braun and what was obviously a spectacular call by me (I’m so modest), let me list the reasons why I was concerned with the other options, and then give the figures to back up what I thought.

“Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.”
Looks like the boozing just isn’t an issue after all. He hit a robust .344, and though he hit 30 homers with 105 RBI the homer total was a five year low while his RBI total was the worst he’s ever had in eight full seasons.

Troy Tulowitzki: “…I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years .“
He played more games than I thought he might, 143, but injuries limited him to three year lows in runs scored (81), steals (nine), OBP (.372) and SLG (.544). He still had a great year though.

Carlos Gonzalez: “…hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.”
He was even worse in 2011 on the road hitting .252 with a .757 OPS. He still had a great year considering he played in 127 games (.295-26-92-92-20), but everything predictably regressed.

Evan Longoria: “ I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think.”
50/50 here. Third base was even more shallow than we thought as everyone was injured at one point or another. With a late season power surge he finished the year with 31 homers and 99 RBI to place himself amongst the best at the position, but he also hit a career worst .244 and stole a career low three bags.

“What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.”
Both players had great efforts, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it, but neither rose to the level of being the #3 selection.

Votto: .309-29-103-101-8 with a .947 OPS
Cano: .302-28-118-104-8 with a .882 OPS

“Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me. “
Halladay was typically grand, but he may not have even been the best pitcher on his own team (Cliff Lee posted virtually identical numbers).

All of that leads to Ryan Braun. Here are the points I made with Braun (you can get more detail from the initial piece).

(1) Consistency/Across the board production.
For the 5th straight year he hit better than .285 with more than 25 homers, 97 RBI,  91 runs and 14 steals. He produced a 5×5 line of .332-33-111-109-33 in what was his best season of a stupendous career.

(2) Health.
The previous three seasons Braun had appeared in 151 or more games. He missed out in 2011, but I’ll take the 150 total he played in every year.

(3) Upside.
I mentioned in the previous piece that if you took the career bests for Braun in the main five fantasy categories you’d end up with a season of .324-37-114-113-20. How did he do in 2011? He bettered the average at .332. He fell just short in the homer, RBI and runs scored categories with 33, 111 and 109. Still, that’s pretty damn close ain’t it? The kicker is that he went for 33 steals, just one less than he posted in 2009 and 2010.

Braun wasn’t just the best choice as the #3 selection this year, he actually ended the year as the second best fantasy performer behind only Matt Kemp (.324-39-126-115-40). And you wanted to drafted Troy Tulowitzki…

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September17, 2011

(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?

(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.

(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?

(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 28, 2011

photo © 2008 William Holtkamp | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Carlos Pena or Michael Bourn ROTW?
– @F_Naud

There is a fundamental misunderstanding in how to evaluate players in many instances as people have a hard time placing a value on a player who does nothing but steal bases (i.e. Bourn). Here’s some knowledge that should help.

(1) From 2008 to 2010 there were 14,533 home runs and 8,728 steals (for every homer hit there were 0.6 stolen bags the past three years). Obviously steals are the scarcer commodity and therefore, the more valuable in a straight up comparison.

(2) Not only are steals more difficult to come by, they are more tightly grouped in a smaller number of players. From 2008-2010 there were 256 individual seasons of 20 homers. In that same time frame there were 118 individual seasons of 20 steals. That’s better than a 2-to-1 margin in favor of the 20 homer hitter.

Given these facts, steals are more valuable than homers in the fantasy game in terms of their inherent value in a vacuum because of their scarcity. Of course there are five offensive categories, so you can’t just compare A to B and get the picture in 1080p in HD, but you get the point.

Bourn is an elite base stealer. He’s swiped at least 52 bases while scoring at least 84 runs the past two years, totals that make him a boon to fantasy clubs even if he averaged a mere three homers and 37 RBI over the two years. Let’s take a look at how Bourn ranked, in terms of his fantasy value, at two of the biggest providers in fantasy baseball the past two years.

Bourn 2009: # 26 overall at CBS, #76 overall at Yahoo
Bourn 2010: #68 overall at CBS, #126 overall at Yahoo

Let’s compare that to Pena, a slugging, sloth like, average killer.

Pena 2009: # 147 overall at CBS, #99 overall at Yahoo
Pena 2010: #370 overall at CBS, # 287overall at Yahoo

Both sites use player raters that evaluate players a bit differently, but it should be clear that they are both saying that an elite speed option like Bourn is immanently more valuable than a slugging first baseman like Pena who kills your batting average.

You can find homers all over the place at first base, so a guy like Pena has no business being in a discussion for a 1-for-1 deal for an elite base stealer like Bourn.

I traded Hanley Ramirez for Michael Morse & Martin Prado. Have J.J. Hardy to replace. Good trade? 12 team h2h.
– @brianrkiel

Hanley is on fire, finally, with eight hits in five games. Oddly, some seem to have forgotten that he is an elite talent because of injury and poor production this year. He has no shot at matching the numbers that were expected from him, the numbers that made him a top-5 selection in all drafts this year, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be an elite level performer in the second half of the season.

Morse has been an absolute beast this year hitting .303 with 15 homers and 46 RBI in just 231 at-bats. Since he qualifies at first and outfield he is even more valuable that if he was just rooted at one position. He’s also had success wherever he has played his games with a .303/.345/.545 line at home and .303/.361/.576 slash line on the road. Prado is an established .300 hitter who qualifies at multiple positions on the diamond. His staph infection also appears to be under control, and he’s just about ready to start ramping up his physical work. He should be back before the All-Star break.

As for your replacement at shortstop, Hardy has been great this year – when on the field. He’s clearly brittle, injuries are part of his game, so you should be wary of depending too heavily on him. A solid power bat, there’s little change he will be able to remain at his current pace that would net 30 homers in a full season, and since he’s never hit higher than .283 and owns a career .265 average you also should be concerned about his ability to hit .304 all year long.

If Prado was healthy and hitting .300, I don’t think anyone would accept just Hanley for that duo with Ramirez underperforming so badly. At this point of the year you have to be pragmatic though. I’d accept the deal under the proviso that it’s a risk since the health of Prado is uncertain at the moment.

I give up Matt Joyce and Neil Walker for Brandon Phillips. Thoughts?
– @Lukdabeast

Joyce has predictably fallen on hard times hitting .176 with one homer in June, but let’s not overlook the fact that he’s on pace to hit .300 with 20 homers and 80 RBI (he’s at .313-10-38 through 71 games). Everyone would have taken that at the draft table. Walker has been a disappointment to some as he’s hitting .252 with a .711 OPS a year after hitting .296 with a .811 OPS, but it’s hard to be too down a second sacker who is on pace to go deep 15 times with 100 RBI and 80 runs scored isn’t it?

Phillips has gone bonkers of late hitting .500 over his last 32 at-bats to bring his season long mark up  to .299. Yes his power is down with only six homers on the year, but he is still on pace to better 85 RBI and 100 runs scored. It is odd though that a guy who has stolen 23 or more bags in four of five years isn’t even on pace for double-digit thefts.

There is no disputing that Phillips is the elite level performer of these three. It’s tough to give up all the counting stats that you lose if you deal Joyce and Walker, but I’d give the thumbs up for this deal provided you had an option you could easily slide into the vacant outfield spot.

Who closes for the Phillies with Ryan Madson on DL?
– @WestheUmpire

First it was Brad Lidge, then Jose Contreras, then Ryan Madson as the arm the Phillies were going to count on in the 9th inning.

Lidge is on the DL with an elbow issue, and after a cortisone shot last week he’s finally back at it and rearing to go. The club hopes he will be able to return before the All-Star break. Contreras just went on the DL, again, this time for a strained forearm that will likely keep him out for about 4-6 weeks. Madson was placed on the DL today with a bruised hand that is causing him some numbness. At this point, it’s not clear when he will be back, so a return in 15 days isn’t guaranteed.

So who do the Phillies turn to? I think it has to be Antonio Bastardo, the lefty who has all of two saves in his career. Bastardo has been nails this year with a 0.96 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over 28 innings as he has used his fastball-slider combo to great effect. With a 10.61 K/9 mark he certainly has the ability to generate outs, but there are a couple of major concerns. (1) His BB/9 mark is 4.18, and that is far from ideal. (2) He allows 57 percent of batted balls to go in the air. Given that number it’s a shock that his HR/9 mark is only 0.64. It could easily rise, substantially. (3) As good as his stuff is, there’s no way Bastardo is going to be able to hold batters to a .120 average all year, especially when you notice that his BABIP is .153.

Given the total uncertainty with the Phillies’ bullpen it makes all the sense in the world to add Bastardo in any situation if you need help in the saves category, even if there is no certainty whatsoever about how long he will be asked to close, or how he will handle the pressure of the 9th inning.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 21, 2011

photo © 2008 Rich Anderson | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

If you had to pick one would you choose Chris Carpenter or Tim Hudson?
– @we3kings00

Carpenter has frustrated everyone who owns him. Four times in his past 10 starts he has allowed at least 10 hits, and five times in that stretch at least four earned runs have crossed the plate leading to a 4.47 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the year. However, I still see positives here, and I was writing about them all the way back on May 12th in Buy or Sell – NL Version. Here is why I’m still bullish on Carpenter.

(1) His K/9 rate is 7.11. That would be a five year high.

(2) His fastball velocity is 92.3 mph, higher than the 91.4 from 2010 and better than his career 91.6 mph mark. It doesn’t seem like he is injured.

(3) His BB/9 rate is 2.19, nearly a half a batter below his career 2.59 mark. As a result, his K/BB ratio is 3.25 which would be his second best mark in five years.

(4) His HR/9 mark is 0.91 and his HR/F mark 10.1. His career rates are 0.92 and 10.3.

(5) His xFIP is 3.34 and his career mark is 3.41.

So why is he struggling? He’s currently allowing his fewest grounders since 2002 leading to a 1.44 GB/FB ratio that is well below his 1.78 career mark. He’s also been battered to the tune of a 23.4 percent line drive rate and a .327 BABIP. Given that Carpenter owns a 19.1 career line drive rate and a .297 BABIP, it would seem like he’s probably due some regression. Also, his current left on base percentage of 67.5 percent would be his first time under 71.7 percent since 2000 (minus his six inning 2007 season).

Hudson twirled a gem Monday to even his record at 6-6. People get so fixated on one thing at times, and with Hudson it was his 4.08 ERA heading into the outing. With eight shutout innings that mark has now dipped to 3.73. Hudson also has a superb 1.09 WHIP. Is that surprising? Hardly, not when you consider that Hudson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his career. If we remove his 2009 season when he hurled only 42.1 innings because of injury, here is what we find.

Hudson has won at least 11 games in each of his 11 full seasons.

Hudson has posted an ERA over 4.00 just twice in 11 years. Nine times that mark has been under 3.65.

Hudson has posted a WHIP below 1.27 eight times.

Hudson is as consistent as any hurler in the game over the past decade plus, and his only real failing is that he doesn’t strike batters out (he’s punched out more than six batters per nine only once in seven years).

Both pitchers are solid veteran arms that should have plenty of value the rest of the way. Hudson might be the “safer” option, but I’d still choose Carpenter who offers more upside in the strikeout category, not to mention that I think his ratios also have a good shot at improving the ROTW.

Should I deal Stephen Drew and Jordan Walden to get Hanley Ramirez?
– @noneedforreason

What do you do with an injured player? It’s a question that is at the fore of everyone’s minds. Think of it. Of the top-25 players coming into the year, here are the guys who have been on the DL: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez. It’s been simply amazing.

Ramirez is back for the Marlins, but he’s still not playing day games after night games because of his wonky back, and he’s also been dropped to sixth in the batting order. It really does no good to analyze his work to this point since it’s so clearly been inferior to his career levels in pretty much every conceivable way. With his continued struggles to get healthy, it’s a fair question to ask if he will be able to flash his elite skills this season, and even if he does, how long will it take him to get there?

I dislike making deals in which I give away the “best” player in the group. I also dislike making deals in which I give up an elite player. However, at this point, I wouldn’t look down my nose at someone who took Drew and Walden for Hanley, especially if that club could use help in the bullpen. I’d like to see if I could get more because HanRam is still an elite talent, but I would understand why someone would make a move. Given that, I’d probably end up withdrawing this offer leaving Hanley on the other squad.

Jon Jay looks like he’s gonna play every, so Jay or Angel Pagan as 4th outfielder until Albert Pujols gets back?
– @metsthoughts

Jay has hit .304 with eight homer, 41 RBI, 64 runs scored and seven steals in 450 big league at-bats. Clearly he has the bat to garner significant work in the big leagues. However, he’s never been a big homer bat, his high was 12 in 2008, and that will not change if he continues to operate with a 1.97 GB/FB ratio which is his career mark (that number is through the roof this season at 3.21). While he will steal the odd base, Jay’s not likely to challenge Vince Coleman’s team records for thefts.

Pagan snuck into the top-50 overall last year with a wonderful 5×5 line of .290-11-69-80-37. He’s not going to match those totals this season after a slow, injury filled start, but he’s cranked things up in June hitting .297 with 11 RBI and five steals, production that mirrors his level from last season. He’s done a great job controlling the strike zone with three more walks than punchouts, and he only figures to see his totals improve when the Mets get back David Wright and Ike Davis from injury.

I’d take Pagan. Neither player will kill you in average, and neither has more than moderate power either, but Pagan has the wheels to easily outdistance himself from Jay.

Everyone in those 10 team mixed leagues with three starting OFs and no MI or CI are killing me.
– @BaseballGuys

Obviously this isn’t a question, and I’m quoting myself (how narcissistic is that?). Still, I just had to vent a bit. I get questions about 15 team leagues, dynasty leagues, NL-only leagues that also use the AL central (that’s not made up) etc. However, the one that really gets me is when people are asking for advice for their 10 team mixed league that starts only three outfielders and does not use middle or corner infielders. I addressed this situation recently in Player Pools where I tried to explain why 10 team mixed leagues are just too shallow.

And finally, I know it’s not a question, but I thought you would all enjoy the sentiment from @justintime56 who had an interesting take on the Albert Pujols injury…

I blame La Russa for Pujols’ injury. Should have played him @ 3B… he only needed one more start at third for eligibility.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Mailbag: April 26, 2011

photo © 2010 Phil Roeder | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Hanley Ramirez got traded straight up for Starlin Castro. This is vetoable correct?
– @Dorman06

I hate vetoing deals. The reason is that sometimes a team would benefit from picking up a “lesser” player in a deal. If you need steals maybe it makes sense to trade Justin Upton for Michael Bourn, even if straight up the players aren’t equal. However, deals are never done in a vacuum, so unless the deal is horrifically one-sided the best course of action is usually to just let people stupidly make bad decisions and live with them. Actually, the best course of action to avoid this issue is simply to not allow trades. That way there is no funny business going on, but most people find such leagues to be boring.

In terms of this deal, I’m going to completely reverse course. This is one of those deals that simply must be vetoed. Wind back the clock four weeks. Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall out of the top-5 in any draft, no matter what the format and Castro was lucky if he was being taken in the top-100. In each of the last four seasons Hanley has been one of the top-10 fantasy performers in the game who has averaged a 5×5 line of .319-27-83-111-36. Those numbers are Hanley’s “average” effort the past four years. Even if Castro were to maintain his current pace (.357-1-11-16-3) over 150 games this season he would end up with a 5×5 line of .357-7-75-109-20. Castro will never hit .357, but even if he does he isn’t even on pace to match a “normal” effort from Ramirez.

In this case the deal should clearly be vetoed even if Hanley is currently batting .194 with no homers.

Closers. Pick two to keep and one to shop around – Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero. Thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

The problem with questions like this is the following – almost always the player or players you should keep are the ones that will bring the most value in a deal. Therefore, do you trade the “best” guy because he will bring the most in return or do you trade the inferior guys and get lesser players in return?

Wilson is the arm you have to keep. His 9.82 ERA is a total fluke as he’s had three poor outings. Wilson still has five saves in six chances and a strikeout per inning on the young season. He’s still working his way back to full health after being slowed by a side issue in spring, but you don’t trade the majors saves leader from the past three years (127, five more than K-Rod), unless you get a huge return.

Cordero gets saves, he’s had at least 34 in each of the past four years, but his K-rate continues to plummet. After posting a 12.22 mark in 2007 we’ve seen it dip to 9.98, 7.83, 7.31 and 7.00 this season. Given that he’s walking 4.00 batters per nine this year which would be a 4th straight year of least four, you need to realize that the end is coming. Sooner or later a pitching line like that will catch up to you.

Broxton has struggled. His fastball is three mph down from where it was in 2009 (97.8), and that is a big concern. Even more concerning is his current 6.97 K/9 mark. I have to think that is a sample size thing though – he’s never been below 10.54 per nine in his career. Even more disconcerting is his 6.10 BB/9 mark. Unless you’re Carlos Marmol you cannot have success issuing that many free passes. At the same time Broxton is still generating a solid 1.56 GB/FB mark, and there is no way in the world that batters will continue to square him up this well all year (he’s allowing a 34.3 percent line drive).

Keep Wilson and Broxton. If you tried to trade the Dodger right now you likely wouldn’t get much for him anyway as people would be fixated on his ERA (4.35) and WHIP (1.84).

Should I drop Ervin Santana for Scott Baker?
– @zaktraut

It’s so funny. It’s like people have all of a sudden discovered Baker as I’m literally getting 20 questions a day about him on Twitter. Just to prove that I’m not Johnny Come Lately with Baker, I’d point you to a piece I wrote last year in October titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought in which I suggested that everyone keep an eye on Baker in 2011. Baker has always had the skills to be an elite level performer, but he has never been able to put it all together. Will he be able to this year? That remains to be seen, but it cannot be argued that he is off to a fantastic start (3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 3.00 K/BB ).

Santana has been one of those odd every year performer (look at his win totals the last five years – 16, 7, 16, 8, 17). However, he posted a four year low in his K/9 rate (6.83) last year, continued to give up his fair share of long balls (1.09 per nine) and was hit pretty hard with a 22.1 percent line drive rate. This year he’s upped the K-rate to 7.71 while dropping his walk rate way down to 2.20 per nine, but the outward results are poor (he’s 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA). Clearly he has pitched better than the results this season. Let’s compare the two righties by looking at their career numbers.

S. Baker: 4.29 ERA,, 1.27 WHIP, 7.12 K/9, 3.36 K/BB, 0.76 GB/FB, 1.19 HR/9
Santana: 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.86 GB/FB, 1.15 HR/9

I want Baker even with the career numbers showing the matchup to be a toss up. I’ve said it before. One of these years it’s all going to come together for Baker and when it does, watch out.

Would you drop Matt Thornton or Sean Burnett for Ryan Franklin?
– @JSam85

I’ve written and talked about this many times, and I always say the same thing – give me skills over role and eventually I’ll come out ahead. With the massive changes we’ve already witnessed in the 9th inning this year, I wrote about this situation in The Closer Conundrum, it’s never been more obvious to me that my position is the right one. It may not always result in saves or me winning a league, but in the long run I’ll come out ahead more times than not, especially since we have no idea what managers will do in the 9th inning.

ROLE: Right now the pitcher to own would appear to be Burnett. Drew Storen is coming hard and appears to have pretty much locked down the 9th inning job with the Nationals, but Burnett figures to at least get some work in the 9th. Thornton was so bad early on that he’s likely nowhere near the 9th for the Sox, and with Mitchell Boggs looking strong, I wouldn’t expect to see Franklin closing games any time soon.

SKILLS: You may not want to hear it given his horrible start, but the best pitcher of this group in terms of skills is Thornton, and it’s not even up for an argument. Let’s look at each hurlers numbers since the start of the 2009 season.

Burnett: 7.68 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 6.78 H/9, 10.38 BR/9
Franklin: 5.98 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 7.86 H/9, 10.75 BR/9
Thornton: 11.28 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 7.15 H/9, 10.18 BR/9

Are you going to let 6.2 innings of poor work from Thornton wipe out three fantastic seasons (from 2007-10, amongst hurlers who tossed 200-innings Thornton was 2nd in base runners per nine innings, fourth in K/9, sixth in ERA and ninth in K/BB)? I’m not. I have no idea who will be the most valuable fantasy performer, the answer to that depends totally on whether or not each hurler’s manager allows them to pitch the 9th inning, so give me the pitcher with the best skill set – Thornton, and leave Ryan Franklin alone.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Who is #3?

Photo by Benjamin Kabek

There is pretty much a consensus this year that Albert Pujols should go off the board first overall, and Hanley Ramirez seems to be locked in as the #2 selection in most peoples minds. After that, let the games begin.

Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.

Some think it should be Troy Tulowitzki because of his massive production from a scarce position (shortstop). I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years.

Some say Carlos Gonzalez. The guy hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.

Some say Evan Longoria. I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think (not if guys like Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are still on the board after 125 names have been called out).

What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.

Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me.

I think the clear option at #3 overall is Ryan Braun, a guy who has an ADP of about nine. Here is my argument for why Braun should be #3 (in fact, I’ll go you one further and say that I think Carl Crawford should be taken  4th overall – see the Top-300 for 2011).

THE CASE FOR BRAUN

(1) Consistency
In four big league seasons, Braun has never hit less than .285.
He has never hit fewer than 25 homers.
He has never had fewer than 97 RBI.
He has never scored less than 91 runs.
He has never stolen less than 14 bases.

That means in four seasons in the majors Braun has never produced a batting line of less than .285-25-97-91-14. Last year there were only four men in all of baseball who hit all of the marks (Braun, Pujols, Votto and CarGo), and those are the four year lows for Braun.

(2) Across the Board production
I went through the numbers above but just so it registers like it should…

Over the past four years there have been only 16 seasons of .285-25-97-91-14. Braun has fully a quarter of them meaning every other player in baseball has a grand total of 12 such seasons, or on average just three a year. Moreover, only three other men in the game have had two such seasons the past four years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.

(3) Health
Braun played only 113 games as a rookie, but that was because he was called up during the season from the minors. The past three years he has dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises, but each of those years he has appeared in at least 151 games. The last three years only 12 players have appeared in at least 151 games each campaign. It doesn’t matter how great you are, if you aren’t on the field your overall production just won’t stack up the elites of the game.

(4) Upside
Braun has just under four full seasons in the big leagues and he is only 27 years old. I don’t buy into the “27 year old breakout” hype, but the fact is that Braun could easily still have more to give at the dish. That is particularly intriguing given that his best 5×5 numbers thus far would result in a 5×5 effort of .324-37-114-113-20. Do you know how many such seasons have been produced in the 20th century? The answer is none. Moreover, over the last twenty years those five marks have only been reached in one season on three occasions: Ellis Burks (1996), Larry Walker (1997) and Barry Bonds (1993).

You could raise arguments such as position scarcity and the fact that Braun has seen his ground ball rate rise substantially the past two years as reasons to pass on Braun at the number three overall spot, but to me it’s pretty clear that he would seem to have the least risk of any of the players who are consistently going in the top-10 after Pujols and Hanley are off the board. In my mind that is a huge factor that should be taken into consideration when you think about who you are going to take if you have the #3 spot on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What Stands Out?

With the fantasy sports world just about over football – for those of you that have already moved on the Superbowl is in a week – mock drafts for baseball are really starting to heat up. Today, in preparation for our discussion on the Fanball Fantasy Drive (you can hear the show every day, from 5-8 PM EDT, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 – you can call in with your questions on any fantasy sport), I thought I would point out some of the interesting ADP trends that stuck out for me when I was reviewing things over at MockDraftCentral this morning.

Third Base Going Early

Almost the first term out of everyone’s mouth this draft season seems to be “position scarcity.” There are a couple of positions that seem pretty top heavy with shortstop and third base being at the head of the list. When looking at the ADP information we find fourth third basemen going in the top-20 selections: Evan Longoria (ADP of 5 overall), David Wright (10), Alex Rodriguez (16) and Ryan Zimmerman (20). I completely agree that those are the top-4 third sackers on the board, but I really wonder if it’s worth reaching on Longoria as a top-5 option. Just compare his numbers last season to Zimmerman.

Longoria: .294-22-104-96-15
Zimmerman: .307-25-85-85-4

Longoria certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’d lean toward Zimmerman in the second versus Longoria that early given the return on investment (ROI) opportunity.

The Top-5 Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (4), Jose Reyes (26), Jimmy Rollins (43), Derek Jeter (48) – that’s your top-5. Only two other shortstops are in the top-100: Elvis Andrus (71) and Alex Ramirez (100).

Hanley Ramirez OPS dropped .101 points last year. He’s also seen his homer total dip from 33 to 21 the last three years while his runs scored marked has gone from 125 to 92. Is he really the no-doubt #2 man overall?

Reyes 17 picks ahead of Rollins? I’m not buying that. You can read about my thoughts on those two in Top-10 SS for 2011. I also don’t think that Jeter is a bad pickup this year (The Value of Jeter). At the same time, Ramirez hit .012 points higher than Jeter, with eight more homers, three more RBI and just five fewer steals last season – and he is available 52 picks later.

Only One SP in Top-20

Only one starting pitcher is going in the top-20, and that is the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. Most people tend to eschew starting pitching early in drafts because there is more volatility with pitchers from year to year. At the same time, with hitting on the decline, perhaps pitchers should be taken a bit earlier? Nah. Only two other hurlers are going in the top-34: Tim Lincecum (21) and Felix Hernandez (27).

* Riddle me this – which one of these pitching lines would you want most?

12-9, 3.18 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.00 WHIP in 212.1 IP
13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP
11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 183.2 IP

Those numbers belong to Cliff Lee (37), Clayton Kershaw (51) and Josh Johnson (66). Are you sure you want to reach that early for Mr. Lee?

Hell, do you want Lincecum (21) over Kershaw (51) given what each will cost you?

Lincecum: 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 212.1 IP
Kershaw: 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP

* When are most teams jumping in and taking their #1 starter? Look at picks 53-66 for that as eight of those 14 picks are being spent on starting pitchers.

People Waiting on RPs

Not surprisingly, the best closer in the history of baseball is being drafted first at the position as Mariano Rivera has an ADP of 61. Only four other relievers are going in the top-100 with a clear grouping of three others being taken ahead of everyone else: Carlos Marmol (71), Brian Wilson (77), Joakim Soria (78). After that, we have to wait until Heath Bell at 96.

People Waiting on Catchers

Five catchers are being taken in the top-100 as people seem acutely aware of the fact that injuries can bite backstops at any time. Moreover, only six catchers are going in the next 100 picks meaning that in standard 12 team, 1 catcher leagues, someone is waiting until after the 200th selection to take first catcher. Currently, the 12th and 13th catchers off the board are Yadier Molina (215) and Carlos Ruiz (221). Those are the two catchers I selected in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA (that league starts two catchers).

* Catchers going in the 300′s that could be decent bargains in 2011: Chris Iannetta (337), Yorvit Torrealba (372) and J.P. Arencebia (374).

You can read more about Torrealba in Californian’s on the Move, and if the dumba– Rockies would just give Iannetta regular at-bats, he could be a fantasy beast. Per 541 at-bats in his career, Iannetta has produced an average of 25 homers and 91 RBI. Think Mike Napoli-lite.

By Ray Flowers