Review: First Round, 2010

The first round of any fantasy draft is huge. There’s no surer way to ruin your fantasy season than to blow your first round pick on an under performing player, or one who ends up injured. At least that is conventional wisdom around most parts. However is it true when so many first round choices, year after year, fail to live up to expectations?

Here is a review of the first round for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft we did for our 2010 Annual Fantasy Baseball Magazine. How did our top-15 choices play out now that the 2010 season is complete (the NFBC’s main event is made up of 15-team leagues)?

One final note, in parenthesis is the ranking that each player finished the 2010 season with according to our Player Rater tool. If a player has “miss” after his name, he failed to finish in the top-50.

1- Albert Pujols (2nd)
In 10 years he has never, not once, failed to go at least .312-32-103-99. This year he was far better at .312-42-118-118-14.

2- Hanley Ramirez (11th)
He was a bit disappointing with just 21 homers an a mere .300 average, but he still went 20/30 while scoring more than 90 runs.

3- Alex Rodriguez (48th)
Potentially never has such a powerful season – 30 homers and 125 RBI – seemed so disappointing. A-Rod hit only .270, scored just 74 runs and stole a piddly four bags.

4- Ryan Braun (12th )
He failed to hit 30-homers for the first time with 25, but he still hit .304 with 103 RBI, 101 runs and 14 steals. He has been dynamic in his four year career.

5- Chase Utley – MISS
Injury limited him to 115 games, and the results was his first season with less than 22 homers, 93 RBI and 93 runs scored in six seasons (.275-16-65-75-13).

6- Mark Teixeira – MISS
He hit a terrible .136 in April and never really got on track finishing at .256 (career .286). He still was able to put up another 30-100 season though (33-108) while scoring 113 runs.

7- Miguel Cabrera (5th)
If not for Mr. Pujols, Mr. Cabrera would be seen by more fans for what he is – a player on his way to the Hall of Fame. Cabrera was second in the AL with a .328 average, third in homers with 38, and first in RBI with 126. Plus, he was my choice for the AL MVP (give Who is the AL MVP a read).

8- Matt Kemp – MISS
I predicted he would fall in 2009. I was just a year early. Kemp hit a poor .249, whiffed 170 times and was caught stealing 15 times as he had more than one run in with the coaching staff in L.A. He did have value though with 28 homers, 89 RBI and 82 runs scored.

9- Ryan Howard – (49th)
He hit 31 bombs with 108 RBI, but it was the first time in five years that he failed to go deep 45 times with 136 RBI.

10- Jacoby Ellsbury – MISS
The biggest bust of 2010 as he appeared in just 18 games.

11- Carl Crawford (3rd)
About to be a very rich man in free agency as he yet again was an all-around beast (.307-19-90-110-47).

12- Adrian Gonzalez (34th)
He plays in a terrible park for hitters, and did hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI and 87 runs, but most were expecting more after he averaged 35 homers, 106 RBI and 98 runs the previous three seasons.

13- Prince Fielder – MISS
If I said Fielder hit 32 homers and scored 94 runs, you’d be nonplussed but pleased. However he slumped to .261 and drove in just 83 runs a year after platting a career best 141 runs so it was clearly a disappointing effort.

14- Ian Kinsler – MISS
I had the pick here, and I felt good about taking Mr. 30/30 with my first selection. Alas, his season was one of injury including that stubborn ankle issue that really held him down early in the year. A season of .286-9-45-73-15 is solid for a second sacker — if he was your 14th round pick, not the 14th player taken overall.

15- Evan Longoria (22nd)
Almost matched his draft day cost as he pushed his average up to .294 with 46 doubles, five triples and five steals (all career bests). He did produce a 3-year low in homers (22) while losing nine RBI (104) and four runs (96) from his ’09 effort.

Of these 15 guys, do you know how many returned first round value according to our Player Rater? The answer is a mere five: Braun, Cabrera, Crawford, Pujols and Ramirez.

All of this just goes to show you that the old adage that drafts are won or lost in the first round may not be true because I bet a whole bunch of people won leagues taking one of the 10 guys mentioned here who didn’t finish in the top-50 this season.

By Ray Flowers

Tuesday’s Travels

There’s no theme to my madness today. I’m just going with a stream of consciousness vibe here as I get ready to run around the block, lift some weights, and watch the Sharks hopefully move to a 3-0 lead over the Red Wings.

* Rick Ankiel was placed on the DL today, retroactive to May 3rd, with a strained right quadriceps muscle. He will be replaced on the active roster by Kila Ka’aihue. Of course, the Royals blew this one by giving Ankiel two pinch hitting at-bats on Saturday and Sunday after holding him out of the starting lineup since April 24th. This is yet another reason why the Royals fail to ever win (poor roster management). If you don’t know who KK is, he is a slugging first basemen who has an OPS over 1.000 this year in Triple-A. What position did the Royals just say they wanted Alex Gordon to learn? They also said they wanted Gordon to pick up an outfielder’s glove, so I won’t lambast them for that decision.

Since I’m on a role I might as well keep going with Royals talk. Mike Aviles has been called up from the minors and will start in place of Yuniesky Betancourt on Tuesday. Aviles hit .284 in some limited work at Triple-A this year, and the dude can flat out hit (he owns a .293 career mark in 540 at-bats with the Royals). Betancourt started out hot but he’s hit only .240 over his last 50 at-bats, and his defense has slipped in recent years as well. Aviles certainly could lock down the starting job at short if he starts out hot, so make sure he isn’t floating on waivers in your AL-only league.

* Kyle Blanks update: he still can’t hit. He has 18 strikeouts in his last 29 at-bats leading to an inconcionable K-rate of 44.4 percent on the year. He is so lost that it’s to the point that the team must send him to Triple-A since he is a walking disaster right now.

* Watching Tim Lincecum vs. the Marlins right now. He just struck out Cameron Maybin on a poor swing before getting Chris Coghlan to swing over a pitch by about 18 inches. He then gave up a hit to Hanley Ramirez before punching out Jorge Cantu for three Ks in the first inning. Dude is just amazing.

* Vin Mazzaro will replace Justin Duchscherer for one start. That is if you believe that Duke’s hip will respond quickly to the cortisone shot he just got. Don’t consider me to be one of those that believes that will happen. That means Mazzaro is a must add in AL-only leagues. He didn’t look great after a hot start last year, but a spot it the rotation is a spot in the rotation.

* Two pitchers going in opposite directions with health. Jair Jurrjens probably won’t make his start on Saturday because of a strained hamstring. He injured the hammy last Thursday and still isn’t ready to thrown in the pen (Kris Medlen could pick up the start). Carlos Silva, dealing with a wrist issue, didn’t need a cortisone shot in his wrist so he will make a start for the Cubs on Friday instead of needing another day of rest. I still want Jurrjens every time over Silva despite these health revelations – and I don’t even love Jurrjens which tells you all you need to know about my thoughts on Silva.

* Lincecum started the second inning punching out Dan Uggla on a 94 mph at the knees. He didn’t even get a swing off. Same thing just happened to John Baker.

For more of my thoughts on some things that shook out on Tuesday give Around the Horn a read where I discuss Jeff Clement, Austin Jackson, Chris Davis, Juan Pierre and the Phillies’ bullpen (Ryan Madson will miss at least eight weeks after having surgery to repair the toe he broke kicking a chair last week).

By Ray Flowers

Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers

The Ideal First Round

We are still months away from the 2010 major league season, shoot, we aren’t even to the World Series yet, but that doesn’t mean that I’m not knee deep in baseball data right now as we are beginning to put together out first 2010 Baseball Magazine (it should be out in time to stuff your holiday stocking). Given that, combined with our recent purchase of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship which uses 15 team leagues, I thought I would run through my ideal first round for 2010. It won’t be the last time I do this leading up to the actual draft weekend, but sitting here today this is how I see things playing out.

1- Hanley Ramirez
How is this for a three year average from a shortstop: .325-29-85-117-38. His steal total is dipping (51, 35 and 27), but the average has been over .330 two of the past three years and he knocked in 106 runs batting third this season.

2- Albert Pujols
I know, I know. How could he not be #1? At this point I’m putting him #2 because of his most recent elbow operation and the slight concern I have about that. You can read my thoughts on the matter at Is Perception Reality?

3- Alex Rodriguez
Showing, once again, what he can do when the stars align. If we add in the eight playoff games he has played this year he has produced a .293-35-111-88-15 line in just 132 games this season.

4- Ryan Braun
Strikes out too much without drawing walks (his 0.35 BB/K mark for his career is well below the 0.50 major league average), but he has managed to hit .308 in his three seasons. Doesn’t have the speed of Kemp (though he had 20 steals in ’09), but of the two this is the guy would could hit 40 homers with 120 RBI and a .330 batting average.

5- Matt Kemp
I don’t like the large K totals (153 and 139 the past two years), but how can I argue with a guy who in his second full season hit .297-26-101-97-34? 30/30 is the next step.

6- Miguel Cabrera
The best right handed power hitter in the AL who hasn’t been linked to performance enhancing drugs, Cabrera has hit at least .320 in four of five seasons while also knocked in at least 112 runs five times in six years.

7- Chase Utley
Shrugged off the hip surgery to produce spectacularly. He went 20/20 for the first time (31 homers, 23 steals), scored 100-runs for the fourth straight year and has now gone at least .280-22-93-93 in each of the past five seasons.

8- Ian Kinsler
How many players went 30/30 this past season? One, and he plays second base for the Rangers (he had 31 homers and 31 steals). Even though he hit only .253 he still scored 101 runs with 86 RBI.

9- Tim Lincecum
The best pitcher in the game. Period.

10- Ryan Howard
Wildly deficient in steals (10 career) and average (only once over .280 the past four years), but with 4-straight 45 homer, 135 RBI seasons who cares?

11- Jacoby Ellsbury
Major league steals leader (70) doesn’t have the power of Crawford, but he has more steal upside, has scored at least 94 runs each of the past two years, and upped his average .021 points in just his second full season (.301).

12- Carl Crawford
Even with a late season fade he still set a career best with 60 steals, his fifth 50+ steal season in seven years, while scoring 96 runs, hitting 15 bombs, and batting .305.

13- Mark Teixeira
I don’t think he takes the next step to outright greatness, but in that park, and with that lineup around him, he is as close as a guy can be to a completely lock to hit 30 homers with 100 RBI and a batting average of .280+ (6-straight years).

14- Roy Halladay
Yes Zack Greinke was better last season, but at the same time Halladay has been the most consistently excellent pitcher in the game the past four years. There is also the growing specter of Halladay being dealt, and that would likely help him in the “W” category much more than Greinke will be aided pitching for the Royals.

15- Mark Reynolds
Reynolds was the only man who hit 40 homers while knocking in 100 runs and stealing 20 bases. Reynolds set a major league record with 223 Ks, so I still worry about his ability to match his .260 mark from last season, and honestly, I would never take him this high, though some might even put him higher on the list so I added him, grudgingly, to the list.

By Ray Flowers

The NL MVP Race

If you say the NL MVP should go to anyone other than Albert Pujols you have taken one too many hits of the hookah pipe. Still, I find it a bit distasteful too only review some of the award races, and since I’ve already gone over the NL Cy Young and the AL Cy Young, I thought it prudent to continue my way around the big time baseball awards for 2009.

With that, here is my top-10 ballot for NL MVP. It’s a tough call choosing just 10 guys, but at least I know the difference between BABIP and batters eye, whereas I would posit the position that well over half the people who vote for the award think those two terms come from the proposed healthcare initiative in Congress.

One final note. I do NOT believe that pitchers should be eligible for the MVP. They have their own award, so leave this one to the hitter’s fellas.

10 – Derrek Lee
Not much went right for the Cubs this season, but after a brutal start (.189 with one homer in April), Lee rebounded to hit .306 with 35 homers, 111 RBI and 91 runs scored.

9 – Mark Reynolds
Yes he set a major league record with 223 strikeouts, an unmitigated disaster, but at the same time he socked 44 long balls, knocked in 102 runs, finished just two runs shy of scoring 100 times and stole 24 bases. That’s a terrific season even if you hit just .260.

8 – Matt Kemp
Though he slumped in the end hitting just .224 over his last 30 games, Kemp was the main man in a lineup that missed Manny Ramirez for 50-games. Kemp hit .297 with 26 homers, 101 RBI, 97 runs and even stole 34 bases. Just imagine how good his numbers might have been if he didn’t have 250 of his at-bats in the seventh and eight holes.

7 – Ryan Howard
For the fourth straight year he had at least 45-homers and 135-RBI (he had 45 and 141). Even though he also posted 180-Ks for the fourth straight year, he managed to tie his career best of 105 runs while posting a .931 OPS for the Fighting Phils.

6 – Pablo Sandoval
Pablo for President. Sandoval finished second in the league with a .330 batting average, hit 25 homers, knocked in 90 runs and had a .943 OPS that was seventh in the Senior Circuit, and he did all this in a lineup of hitters that couldn’t hit .300 in a high school game (OK, maybe college).

5 – Ryan Braun
His numbers (.320-32-114-113-20) are better than the man ahead of him on the list, but Braun is a middling defender who only impacts the game on one side of the field. Still, few do it better with a bat in their hands.

4 – Troy Tulowitzki
Undoubtedly the major reason the Rockies turned their season around, Tulo hit .226 with five home runs the first two months (46 games) before going bonkers at the dish leading to a .297-32-92-101-20 line. Those are tremendous numbers for anyone, let alone when they belong to the man that just might be the best defensive shortstop in the National League.

3 – Prince Fielder
Prince socked 46 long balls, knocked in major league best 141 runs (tied with Howard) and managed to hit .299 with 110 walks leading to a .412 OBP the fifth best mark in the NL. He was also one of two men to top a grand in OPS with his mark of 1.014

2 – Hanley Ramirez
Didn’t match his previous totals in the steal department (27) but he led the NL in average (.342), had a higher OPS (.954) and Ryan Braun (.937), scored 101 times while knocking in 106 and also socked 24 long balls. Another tremendous season it was for the Marlins’ shortstop.

1 – Albert Pujols
Duh.

Pujols led the majors with 47 homers and an OPS of 1.101 OPS, and he also knocked in 135, scored 124 times, stole 16 bases for good measure led the NL in OBP (.443) and the majors in SLG (.658). The man is flat out historic.

By Ray Flowers

Trying to Focus

I’m tired, a bit hungry, wondering when/if I will meet the love of my life and generally dealing with an overall malaise as the NFL season gets under way. Now I’m also dealing with a shoulder I strained while lifting weights the other day – I think it was during that grueling set of bench pressing 95 lbs – so yes, I’m in a sad state. Let’s see how that translates to my entry today. I’m betting there will be some biting analysis.

Troy Glaus is now out of action with a sore oblique. Apparently pinch hitting was too much for the guy as Glaus has but three hits in 17 at-bats this season. For a guy who had back-to-back 40-homer seasons in 2000-01, and one who has averaged 34 homers per 550 ABs in his career, this year has been a flippin’ waste of time. Thanks Troy.

Another youngster with a luminous future has been shut down do to workload concerns. Brian Matusz of the Orioles has thrown his last pitch of the season. The 22 year old tossed 157.2 innings this season, deemed by the Orioles as more than enough. Though disappointed, Matusz was still proud that he was able to ascend the minor league ladder to force the club to promote him to the bigs. “It was never in the plan for me to be here this year,” he said. “I’m really proud that I went out and didn’t give them any choice but to bring me up. I really learned a lot and am proud of my progress.” I’m proud of my progress too Brian, but I’m not looking over my shoulder as I’m fairly sure that Fanball won’t shut me down as ownership seems to be operating under the belief that I’ve got the stamina to type articles well into the month of December.

Magglio Ordonez will make $18 million next season – $18,000,000 – when he picks up a handful of plate appearances to trigger next seasons extension. What did he do for that dough? He has hit all of .294, just slightly off his .311 career mark, and his .365 OBP is also barely off his career mark as well (.371). Still, the guy has undershot his OPS by more than .100 points (.769 compared to .883) and with seven home runs and 40 RBI in 401 ABs he will end up with the worst numbers of his career in a season of at least 400-plate appearances. Goodness gracious, the man averaged 24 home runs and 115 RBI the past three years meaning he hasn’t even offered 50 percent of his “normal” production this year, yet he will still make more money next year than the total 2009 salaries of everyone who will read this article in the first hour after it is posted. Only in America, isn’t that what Don King says?

Apparently Jose Valverde is worse off than me right now. He has a 101 degree fever which has him unavailable to pitch leaving closing duties to LaTroy Hawkins. The veteran righty has 11 saves on the season, with four blown ones, and has also picked up 17 holds in what has been a rather fine season.

Delwyn Young was hitting .312 as recently as August 19th. Alas, the man has forgotten how to hit, and no, that isn’t hyperbole I’m using – he literally has forgotten how to hit. Young hasn’t produced a hit in 10 games during which time he is 0-for-24, and going back a bit further he has produced just five hits in 59 at-bats (.085) to drop his overall average down to .268. Think of this: if we quadruple his batting average the past couple weeks, quadruple it, we are left with a batting average of .340 which is still some .021 points behind the NL leading .361 batting average of Hanley Ramirez. That’s a frightening statement to make with Halloween still a month and a half away.

By Ray Flowers

Monday Mailbag Mania

We all have questions. Some relate to what to wear or what to do with that snooty boss, while others are directed toward what type of libation they will be sipping on when the day ends? Alas, this is a baseball blog, so the questions we will answer here pertain to the diamond.

I am in a keeper league where I can keep up to 5 players.

Our league has a position for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF, CF and UTL. Our scoring system includes- hits, Runs, HR, RBI, K, SB and fielding percentages. Can you please let me know who you would keep from the list below?

Geovany Soto, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton
Bench- Carlos Beltran and Ryan Doumit
* I have great SP’s but I do not ever keep pitchers.

I traded throughout the year to get David Wright, Sizemore and Hamilton. My original thought is to keep Ramirez, Wright, Sizemore, Morneau and Hamilton. I like to keep younger players since it is a keeper league but I hate to lose Holliday.
– Bryan

What a club. That is just about the most awesome compilation of talent any league has either seen. Either (a) your pitching is atrocious, (b) you made some very astute deals, or (c) there are only six teams in your league. Here are my thoughts on who I would keep, in reverse order.

5 – Justin Morneau
How many fantasy gamers would complain about a guy who owns a career .285 mark and has produced at least 84 runs and 111 RBI in 4-straight years? If he keeps up his current pace he will make it 4-straight years.

4 – Grady Sizemore
It was either Grady or Carlos Beltran. If both were healthy they would both be up for consideration, 20/20 seasons just aren’t that easy to find. Still, with the breakdown of players in your lineup per position (LF, CF, RF), I can’t suggest keeping both since they both play CF. With Morneau as the UT there is only room for one of the CF’s on your club. Sizemore does strike out a ton, but given that he is younger he is the choice here.

3 – Matt Holliday
Hitting .636 as a Cardinal and .380 since July first, Holliday has his overall numbers up to .297-11-57-54-13 this season. What that means is that despite an abysmal start that he has a shot of a 20/20 season with a .300 batting average. Also, if he signs long-term with the Cards, hitting next to Pujols for the next five or whatever years, they have a word for that and it’s Yahtzee! Holliday may not be a 35-140 guy, but I could easily see a .300-30-100-100-15 season next year in St. Louis, can’t you? Not may left fielders in baseball can rival that.

2 – David Wright
A completely up and down season. Some will see the paltry six home runs, I see the 21 steals. Some will see the .218 July average, I see the .318 overall mark. The bottom line is that the home run dip is an anomaly, no way that a guy who owns a HR/F rate of 14 percent in his career can reasonably be expected to continue along his current 6.1 percent rate.

1 – Hanley Ramirez
The second most consistent player in the game? He won’t score 115 runs for the fourth straight season, and he won’t steal 30 bases for a fourth straight year either, but when you are hitting .348, are on pace for a 20/20 effort and play shortstop, your still a flat out stud.

David Price and Aaron Harang are killing me. Jonathan Sanchez is available. So are Joe Blanton and John Lannan. Drop either/both, and if so, who should I pick up?
– Jim

David Price: 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, Price has been a disaster. He does have a 9.17 K/9 mark, but with a 5.60 BB/9 mark he just hasn’t been able to have success or go deep into games.

Aaron Harang: Over his last six starts Harang is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA. Moreover, he has lost his last seven decisions to drop his overall mark to 5-11. His 7.80 K/9 mark is strong, as is his 3.67 K/BB mark, but too many homers (1.35 per nine) and an inability to get hitters out (.298 BAA) have been hugely detrimental to his overall performance.

Jonathan Sanchez: Tossed a no-hitter and was added in ever league he was available. However, he hasn’t been remotely solid since with a 6.55 ERA and three homers allowed in his last two starts. Overall he continues to be plagued by an inordinate amount of walks (5.12 per nine) which negates his strikeouts (9.23 K/9) and leads to poor overall performance (4.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).

Joe Blanton: Though he is 7-4 with a 4.11 ERA on the year, Blanton has won his last three decisions and has allowed just four runs in those four outings (1.21 ERA). Overall, his K/9 rate is way up at 7.76, leading to a strong 3.00 K/BB mark.

John Lannan: 5-2 in his last seven decisions, only once in his last 11 starts has Lannan allowed more than three earned runs. That’s an amazingly consistent run of production is it not? The guy doesn’t strike anyone out (3.65 K/9), and therefore his K/BB is awful (1.34), but that sinker of his just keeps on diving leading to a 1.70 G/F rate which has led to all his success.

If you aren’t in a keeper league, Price just doesn’t hold much value right now. As for Harang, too many loses in a row have thrown his value into a tailspin, and Blanton owns the same skill set right now while being on a hot streak. I would drop both pitchers and replace them with Blanton and Lannan, and honestly, I can’t believe I just typed that sentence.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries Are Part of the Game

Another day, another top fantasy option has come down with an injury. In fact, you were almost as likely to take a player who has spent time on the DL or on the bench this year with your first round pick as you were likely to draft a healthy player. Just look at how many of the top-15 options heading into the year have dealt with injury.

Miguel Cabrera tweaked a hamstring on Thursday and will be held out of the lineup on Friday though word is that he might be able to pinch-hit if needed. No Cabrera owner can be too upset since their man has hit .354 with 10 home runs, 38 RBI and 34 runs scored so far this season – provided this doesn’t become a DL-type thing.

Hanley Ramirez: He has battled through a variety of injuries all year, and though he is hitting a robust .342, he has only eight home runs and eight steals on the year.

Jose Reyes: The latest news says that his injured calf is now an injured right hamstring tendon. Whether or not that is the same injury and the Mets have kept it under wraps is unknown, but the bottom line is that he is on the DL and the New York Post is reporting that he could miss up to six weeks with the injury. He was hitting only .279 with 11 steals in just 36 games, woeful production for a top-5 pick.

Ryan Braun: Like Hanley, Braun continues to play through a variety of bumps and bruises. Still, he has produced hitting .316 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI, though that pace leaves him barely on pace to produce his third straight 30-100 season. He has only gone deep twice in 19 games which leads me to think he physically ain’t right.

Grady Sizemore: Dude has been lost all year, and now we know why – his elbow is jacked up. Grady hasn’t had surgery on his elbow yet, but it looks like it might be required despite the fact that an MRI didn’t show any structural damage. Sizemore has gone 20/20 in 4-straight year and he could still reach that level since he has nine home runs and seven steals so far provided he doesn’t go under the knife, but his .223 average and .726 OPS show just how awful he has been.

Alex Rodriguez: Had hip surgery and as a result didn’t take the field until May 8th. He is only hitting .250 and doesn’t have a single steal, but he has gone deep seven times with 22 RBI in 26 games.

Josh Hamilton: Like Sizemore, Hamilton may need surgery to fix what ails him. Hamilton is currently on the DL with a strained abdominal muscle. He could be back in two weeks, or he could miss up to two months if he needs surgery. He was hitting only .240 with a .746 OPS though he had drive in 24 runs in 35 games.

Here are some further notes of interest on Friday…

David Ortiz is having his eyes checked since he reported having dry eyes of late. You would think that someone would have checked out his vision a long while ago given his putrid work at the dish this year which includes a .187 average and one home run through 187 ABs. Perhaps some new spectacles will help?

J.J. Putz will be on the shelf for an estimated two months, possibly more, as he will have his elbow operated on to clean some things up. If he comes back as expected, and the team is able to get Billy Wagner back as well, no one will want to face the Mets in September if they can go Putz-Wagner-Francisco Rodriguez in the 7-8-9 innings. I know I wouldn’t.

Brad Penny apparently is on the Braves radar as they look to add some pitching depth. First off, the Red Sox would likely entertain the idea of moving Penny since John Smoltz appears on the cusp or a return to the rotation. The Sox also have Justin Masterson who can start if needed, and don’t forget about Clay Buchholz who continues to toil away in Triple-A simply dominating hitters with his filthy stuff to the tune of a 4-0 record with a 1.74 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and a 4.75 K/BB mark. If you ask me, Penny is the worst option out of those four, so why not move him? If the Braves wanted to add a veteran arm, why didn’t they just hold on to Tom Glavine? For his part, Penny is a very deceiving 5-1 this season thanks to a ton of run support as he has posted a 5.63 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5.63 K/9 and a 2.00 K/BB. My disdain for Penny is well chronicled going back a couple of seasons, and nothing I have seen from him this season has changed my mind one bit.

Oh, and one last note. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on the Fantasy Buffet, our Monday through Friday podcast at Fanball.com, recently did a 1-on-1 interview with the Jets’ running back Leon Washington. Listen for that interview on Monday during the 11AM-12PM time slot that we do the show. You can access the interview at the link posted above on Monday.

By Ray Flowers

Friday's Fantasy Notes

As we head into what will be a glorious weekend of sports that includes NBA and NHL playoffs and game after game of MLB action, here are a few of the stories that really piqued my interest as I prepare myself to hit the shower and shave the old beard in my attempt, however feeble, to impress the ladies with my presence this weekend.

Rich Harden lasted just 3.2 innings on Friday against the Marlins as he was pounded for six hits, four walks and five runs as he left with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through his five starts. Amazingly, he has 37 K in his 24.2 IP, good for a stupendous 13.50 K/9 mark despite all the struggles with the strike zone. He is a real mixed bag right now. He has lasted six innings in three of his starts but has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in the other two.

One is going up, the other going down. Hanley Ramirez finally returned to the action on Friday, his first appearance since injuring his hand on Monday when he was hit by a pitch. He struck out in his lone at-bat. Down south in Texas, Josh Hamilton and his sore rib cage has finally resulted in the team placing him on the DL (retroactive to April 27th meaning he will be eligible to return on May 12th). As a result, Andruw Jones just may be looking at an increase in playing time, and as crazy as it sounds, he might actually deserve it. Through 32 at-bats this season he is batting a fantastic .344 with a 1.304 OPS thanks to a total of three home runs and five doubles. He has also scored 12 runs in only 11 games, and just maybe he has turned the corner after looking about as useful as pocket lint last season.

When was the last time you caught Bull Durham starring Kevin Costner, Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon? Do yourself a favor if its been a while, see it again. When the talk about classic sports movies, there may be no finer example on celluloid about baseball.

Ryan Theriot hit one home run last season in 580-AB. On Friday he went deep for the first time this season, in just his 22nd game, as he socked a grand slam. At the other end of the spectrum we have Carl Crawford who has the most at-bats this season without going deep (92). Only slightly better than him is Alex Rios who has gone deep just once in 101 ABs and Jacoby Ellsbury who has one tater in 94 ABs. As for Rios, what the hell has happened to his power at the dish? After going deep 24 times in 2007 Rios regressed to just 15 long balls last season and now sits with a grand total of 16 home runs in his last 736 at-bats. I don’t want to write the guy off, especially since I drafted him in multiple leagues this season, but that lack of pop is distressing, especially considering that he has swiped a mere two bags in 24 games this season.

The matchup everyone was hoping to see this NHL post season will happen as the Washington Capitals will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 2. Three of the most luminous stars in the game will face off in Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While Crosby has been great in his young career, his star is in danger of being eclipsed due to the play of Ovechkin and Malkin, two of the three finalists for the Hart Trophy this season (the NHL MVP). It will be one hell of a series with other stars like Mike Green and Alexander Semin also involved, so if you are one of those people who still are unsure about the game of hockey, this could certainly be the series that pushes you to the opinion of this writer – it is a great game, perhaps the best that can be viewed in person with it’s combination of skill, speed and physicality.