Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.7

Another week, another series of injuries, another series of desperation moves on the waiver-wire. Well that’s not quite accurate, but the fact is that my fantasy baseball teams are struggling with injuries, just like many of yours. We’re all doing the best we can to piece together a competitive squad until health returns. Here are my moves in free agency Monday, May 13th.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Let’s go through the DL’d guys first – Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, Joel Hanrahan, Zack Greinke. I released Eric Sogard and in his place picked up Maicer Izturis. Need help up the middle badly with Jeter still on the shelf and Emilio Bonifacio forgetting that a bat is something you use to hit the baseball. Maicer has eight hits in his last six games. Two start hurler Ricky Nolasco joins the fold this week at the cost of Hanrahan who is done for the year. I purchased Izturis for $1 and went a little heavier on Nolasco at $4.
Notable bids: Heath Bell ($38 of $100), Scott Kazmir ($16), Ubaldo Jimenez ($8), Julio Teheran ($6)

LABR (12 team, AL-only): I made the huge move of adding Hank Congar for $4. Got tired of looking at Hector Gimenez doing little to nothing as my second catcher. Congar has been no great shakes, but he’s hitting .250 with an RBI over the past two weeks, and that’s actually worth adding. I know.
Notable bids: Sean Rodriguez ($2), Wilkin Ramirez ($2), Elliott Johnson ($2)

FSTA (13 team mixed): The following players are on the DL for my club: Coco Crisp, Justin Maxwell, J.J. Putz, Hanley Ramirez, Sergio Santos, Joel Hanrahan, Kevin Youkilis and Chris Young. It’s a shock I’m in 8th place out of 13 teams. I dropped Sean Marshall and added two start hurt Ricky Nolasco ($17 out of $1,000). I was outbid on Junichi Tazawa (I bid $85). I therefore ended up with Jared Burton ($26). Burton is likely the fall back if that side issue for Glen Perkins becomes something significant. Burton has a 1.69 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 18 Ks in 16 innings this season. Finally, James Loney is part of my club now ($38). Probably overpaid, but I needed something.
Notable bids: Junichi Tazawa ($208), Hector Santiago ($36), Scott Kazmir ($17), Colby Lewis ($17), Scott Feldman ($11), David Murphy ($11).

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Stephen Drew, join the club as I finally gave up on John Axford. Had to do it given the injuries I have. James McDonald is on the DL – I added Chris Tillman for $4 to take his roster spot this week as well. Still leaves me with Austin Jackson, Neil Walker, Rajai Davis, Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Putz and Zack Greinke on the DL. I feel your pain everyone.
Notable bids: The big expenditure was… Heath Bell ($22). Shocker. Junichi Tazawa was the next most expensive guy on waivers at $13. The only other player in double-digits was Marcell Ozuna ($11). No one else went for more than $5 – Kevin Slowey and Julio Teheran.

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. I added James Loney at the cost of Joel Hanrahan who is dont for the year.
Notable bids: Andy Dirks, Neil Walker, Bud Norris, Lyle Overbay, Francisco Liriano and Mitch Moreland were added.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Andrew Bailey, Gordon Beckham, James McDonald are on the DL. Dropped McDonald and added Scott Kazmir ($22). I have no faith in Kazmir, he hasn’t thrown 160 innings since 2007, but he’s rolling his last few starts and I need the innings. Beckham went adios and I added two start Week 7 mound ace Ricky Nolasco ($14). Nolasco has pitched well this season with a 3.72 ERA and 1.116 WHIP through eight starts. I also dropped Eric Sogard who has done nothing since I added him, and in return Will Venable ($27) joined the club. Venable, pretty quietly, is hitting .360 with three homers and four steals the past 12 games. He’s got five bombs and seven steals on the season.
Notable bids: Heath Bell ($171), Junichi Tazawa ($121), Jeff Locke ($41), Trevor Plouffe ($35), Mitch Moreland ($30).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): Jayson Werth, Kevin Youkilis, Cameron Maybin, J.J. Putz, Vinnie Pestano, James McDonald – all on the DL. Had to make a move on the hill, don’t know how long Putz will be down, so I dropped McDonald and added David Phelps ($2) who is a 2-time starter this week. I also added Ryan Raburn ($3), there he is again (I seem to be adding the flunky in every league. Let’s hope he continues to be effective even though the best is behind him). Pestano went bye-bye.
Notable bids: Heath Bell ($35) – there was another bid at $34. Mine was $19. Junichi Tazawa ($13). Scott Kazmir ($10). Kelly Johnson ($10), Francisco Liriano ($6).

By Ray Flowers

Mound Mayhem

Fantasy baseball revolves around two key things – hitting and pitching (a genius statement I know). Today I’ll break down some of the arms on the hill. Which underperformering arms should you be looking at? What will the Cubs and D’backs do in the 9th inning? I know, riveting ain’t it?

Yovani Gallardo is always up and down. It’s been more down than up though this season, and that is causing concern. He does have a win in three of four outings, and he’s walked two or fewer batters in six of seven outings. The K’s haven’t been there, just 26 in 42 innings, and his velocity is down 1.5 mph from his career mark, but I’d bet on the K’s increasing as the innings pile up. He, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander are the only three hurlers with 200 Ks each of the past four years.

To see how others are evaluating Gallardo, don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Dale Sveum, the manager of the Cubs, said that Kevin Gregg will remain the Cubs’ closer even when Kuji Fujikawa returns from injury. That is a horrible decision. Gregg went for at least 22 saves from 2007-11, but he was never good. I mean they ‘he’s done it before’ argument is just a horrible one to hang your hat on Mr. Sveum. Oh, and the ‘he’s been great this year” argument is horrible as well. You can’t say that 7.1 scoreless innings matters much in the grand scheme. Here are the facts. (1) Gregg has an ERA under 4.37 in one of the past four years. (2) The last time he had a WHIP under 1.30 was 2008. (3) The last three years his K/BB ratio has been under 2.00. (4) His 0.97 career GB/FB ratio is poor. It might look good now, but the Cubs will eventually rue this decision – or maybe their bullpen is just that bad.

Just cause. The lovely Kate Beckinsale.

Ubaldo Jimenez has a 6.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He’s struck out 27 batters in 29.2 innings, and batters are hitting .219 against him. He’s also allowed two runs over his last two outings, both victories. It’s also nice to see his GB/FB ratio back in the 1.40 range after dipping all the way down to 1.00 last year. He’s still getting pounded deep, his 1.52 HR/9 mark is literally double his 0.74 career mark, but that should come back to earth, at least a little bit. He’ll never be the arm he once was but maybe he’ll end up being a solid AL-only arm before it’s all said and done (how scary is it to read his velocity number the last four years – 96.1, 93.5, 92.5 and 91.6 mph?).

Scott Kazmir has made three starts with a 6.28 ERA and 1.67 WHIP for the Indians. Consider me shocked (not really). He has struck out more than a batter per inning for those looking for a positive and his fastball has been sitting at 91 mph, not bad for a guy who couldn’t crack 88 mph in 2011. Still, please tell me you aren’t holding out hope of a return to prominence.

J.J. Putz has a forearm issue, and it sounds like there is a chance he could end up on the DL. Who takes over if that happens? It seems like the only question I get on a daily basis – who is working the 9th inning? OK, it’s not the only question, but it is literally something like a third of the questions I receive – the bullpen one. Anyway, here are the three options for the Diamondbacks if Putz is down and out.

Heath Bell saved at least 40 games from 2009-11. He sucked eggs last year (5.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). He’s been better this year but that’s not saying much (4.73 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Bell has punched out 19 batters while walking only three over 13.1 innings, so he’s actually pitched decently despite the ratios.

David Hernandez has struck out 16 batters in 15.2 innings. However, he’s also seen a big increase in his walk rate, up from 2.90 per nine last year to 4.60 per nine this year. He should see that number come down a bit. Also, like so many others who are struggling, he’s been the victim of the long ball. In 2011 Hernandez allowed four homers in 69.1 innings. Last year he allowed four homers in 68.1 innings. This season he’s allowed four homers in 15.2 innings. I’ll leave it to you to delineate the outlier.

Matt Reynolds has made 17 appearances this season without allowing a run. That’s pretty good. He’s also walked only one batter while striking out 14 in 16.1 innings. He’s rocking and rolling. He’s also left-handed and has only two saves in 182 career outings.

Hernandez is the guy I would roll the dice on, though late word is that it is Bell who will be installed as the closer if Putz hits the DL as expected.

It’s Ryan Vogelsong week if judged by my email box. Everyone is wondering what is wrong with the Giants’ righty with the 7.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. My thoughts. (1) His 7.71 K/9 mark would be a career best. (2) His 2.50 K/BB ratio is better than his 2.28 mark of two years ago and just under his 2.55 mark from last year. (3) His BABIP is .352. That mark has been in the .280′s the past two years. (4) His 1.14 GB/FB ratio is an exact match for last year. (5) His 4.27 xFIP is barely off last years 4.15 mark. (6) His HR/9 mark is 2.06. If you add his mark the past two years you get – 1.56. That’s right, he’s currently allowing homers at double his career rate. That has to normalize at some point.
By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

RELIEF PITCHER: HITS

RELIEF PITCHER: MISSES

Do I really have to do this? I’m going to look like a buffoon listing all the misses. At least misery has some company here as pretty much every other preseason rankings list you will look at will be filled with just as many, more if I may be fair, misses as injuries an ineffectiveness killed the position this year. Never seen anything like it actually.

Players who were injured:

(#4) Mariano Rivera
(#7) Brian Wilson
(#9) Andrew Bailey
(#10) Sergio Santos
(#13) Drew Storen
(#25) Kyle Farnsworth

This group of arms threw a total of 88 innings in 2012. Last year that six-some saved a total of 202 games, an average of 34 per man. This year they totaled 18 saves.

Just plain misses:

Heath Bell (#8): I should have listened to myself when I was ranking relievers. Here is a direct quote from my Player Profile for Heath Bell writing on December 19, 2011. “Did the Marlins solidify the 9th inning or did they add a slightly overweight, skill deteriorating righty who might be a mighty expensive setup man by the end of the contract?… there are enough cracks in the armor here that you should be wary of Bell having yet another stupendous season… but his days as an elite closer are likely much closer to the end of the story than the introduction.” Shame on me for not trusting, well, myself.

Brandon League (#14): He lost his closing job with the Mariners and was eventually dealt to the Dodgers as he fell from 37 saves to a mere 15. His walk rate exploded causing his K/BB ratio to fall from 4.50 in ’11 to 1.64 in ’12, and that was a huge reason his effort tanked, not to mention that his GB/FB ratio, while damn impressive at 2.19, was well below his 2.80 career rate. Looks like the Dodgers are planning on him being their closer after giving him more than $22 million for three years. Sorry Kenley Jansen, who apparently has lost the gig despite being the second most dominating pitcher in baseball the past two years (Craig Kimbrel).

Jordan Walden (#19): The Angels always have a strong closer, so it was fair to think Walden would fill that role given that he saved 32 games in 34 chances in 2011. Walden finished 2012 with one save as he never rebounded from a slow start an injury. His 11.08 K/9 mark was impressive and he actually upped his K/BB ratio from 2.58 to 2.67 despite his failings in 2012. By the by, Ernesto Frieri was the dominating Angels’ arm as he had 23 saves, a 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP an a 13.36 K/9 mark over 66 innings (11.2 of those innings were with the Padres).

Jim Johnson (#32): The major league leader with 51 saves, only the thirteenth 50-save season in baseball history. I can rest comfortably knowing no other expert worth a salt had Johnson ranked much higher than I did. Johnson actually had three year lows in K/9 (5.37) and K/BB (2.73), but thanks to some luck and a massive 2.93 GB/FB ratio he just got batters out. Don’t expect a repeat in 2013.

Mark Melancon (#40): Ghastly. Putrid. Pathetic. Choose your adjective. Melancon was hideous in April allowing five homers and 11 runs in his first four outings (49.50 ERA, 6.00 WHIP). He actually pitched  better later in the year posting 28 Ks an a 1.18 WHIP over his last 29.2 innings, but the damage was already done. At least I was right about Alfredo Aceves (see his multiple blow ups, 10 loses and eight blown saves).

Rafael Soriano (#59): I was the conductor of the David Robertson train this year, and he performed very well (2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12.02 K/9). After Rivera was hurt Robertson was installed as the Yankees’ closer. Unfortunately, an injury then also struck Robertson opening up the door for Soriano. Rafael not only stayed healthy throwing 67.2 innings, he also performed as if he was channeling Rivera with a 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 42 saves in 46 chances. If only Robertson hadn’t gotten hurt…

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 12, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Would you trade Rickie Weeks for Francisco Liriano and Stephen Drew? I need pitching depth after many injuries.
– @lqmattson

Weeks has been awful this year hitting .199 with a .658 OPS. Still, he’s immensely talented, has stayed healthy (always an issue for him), and he simply can’t remain this awful for an entire season. He just can’t (don’t forget that he is coming off back-to-back seasons of 20 homers, 75 runs and an exactly similar .269 batting average each campaign). Looks like the turnaround has already started too as he’s hitting .297 with two homers, seven RBIs and 10 runs scored the past two weeks.

Liriano has literally brought his ERA down three full runs over his last seven outings. During those seven trips to the hill he has a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 52 Ks in 49.1 innings. Walks are still a concern, his 4.38 BB/9 mark is about a batter above where we’d like to see it, but the point is pretty obvious – he’s locked in right now and in five of those eight outings he has allowed zero or one run. He’s not the Liriano we all remember dominating hitters in 2006, but he clearly looks like he is back to being the 2010 version of himself and not the dreadful hurler we saw in 2011 and for the first two months this season.

Drew is never going to live up to expectations, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fantasy weapon at shortstop. Remember, from 2007-2010 Drew was a top-10 shortstop even if none of his numbers really jump off the page. Even last year his 162 games would have produced a season of roughly 10 homers, 85 RBI, 80 runs and eight steals – solid numbers to be sure. However, he only appeared in 86 games due to that catastrophic injury to his ankle, and he’s just back out on the field with the big league club having appeared in nine games with poor results (.179 with a .440 OPS). Obviously he will improve, but until he reaches the point where he starts to produce, consider me to be a bit wary (users at Fleaflicker also appear to be in a wait and see approach).

You can do this deal if you need pitching depth as you said, and if the plan includes Drew serving as a backup middle infielder. However, if Drew has to start right now, it’s hard to suggest making this move because even though Weeks has struggled this year, he appears to be heating up and he is clearly the healthier, more ready player to attack the start of the second half. This would be a deal you make solely based on need.

Would you want Cody Ross or Todd Frazier in 14 team h2h dynasty league?
– @MacVincent1

Remember when you had a crush on that gal in high school? You know, that cute gal who thought you were great because you were so funny and smart – yet she always ended up dating some loser who treated her terribly? That gal keeps trying to “date” Cody Ross, I keep telling telling her it’s a bad idea, and she keeps doing it anyway. Newsflash people – Jacoby Ellsbury should be back Friday. Obviously he’s going to play everyday. Carl Crawford should be back in about 2-3 weeks. If healthy, he’s playing everyday. Since David Ortiz is locked in at DH, that means the Red Sox will have the following players vying for time in right field: Ryan Sweeney (rumors suggest the Red Sox are trying to trade him), Daniel Nava, Ryan Kalish, Scott Podsednik and Ross. Yeah, it’s gonna get crowded. I would be remiss if I also didn’t note that Ross is hitting just .264. He’s striking out at a career worst level. He’s batting .238 with a .750 OPS against right handed pitching. Sure he has 20 homer, 75 RBI upside, but really this is a pretty boring skill set that could potentially be in for a playing time squeeze soon.

Frazier has his own problem, chiefly the presence of Scott Rolen. A potential HOF candidate, Rolen was at one point the best all-around third basemen in baseball. That was 2004 though. A broken down shell of his former self, Rolen simply cannot hit any longer as his body has worn down, and through 42 games he is batting .178 with a .302 SLG. Why the Reds continue to play him semi-regularly makes no sense, not with Frazier hitting so well. A third baseman, the Reds have used Frazier a bit in the outfield to get his bat in the lineup, something they should do on a daily basis considering that he’s hitting .278 with nine homers, 29 RBIs an a .901 OPS through 180 at-bats this season.

To me, this is an easy decision. In a keeper league you have to go with Frazier who actually profiles as a very similar hitter to Ross. Two main facts tip the balance to Frazier. First, he plays third base. Second, he’s six years younger.

Do you still think Matt “Harrison is just blah”?
– @theYankeeHajny

I recently answered a question on Twitter about Harrison saying he was “blah.” Of course, it’s hard to give an accurate answer in 140 characters, you get even less space when you are responding to a question, but my point was this (even if my less than eloquent initial response didn’t directly say it). Harrison may have a 3.10 ERA, but that mark really should be a run higher. If it was, his xFIP is 3.95 and his left on base percentage is elevated at 78 percent, we’d be talking about a pitcher with a league average ERA. A solid ground ball arm (51 percent of batted balls are grounders), Harrison is pretty awful in the K column with an average of 5.56 Ks per nine innings, a batter an a half below the league average. So if he’s a league average ERA arm, and below average in K/9, then he’s totally dependent on his record and WHIP leading him to fantasy prominence. He’s 11-4 this year and 25-13 since the start of last season, so he’s looking pretty good in the win column, though we all know that wins-loses don’t always follow based upon a pitchers performance (just ask Cliff Lee who is 1-5 despite a 3.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.06 K/9 and 4.90 K/BB mark). Harrison does have a solid WHIP at 1.24, but given his skill set it would seem at least a 50/50 bet that the mark will creep into the 1.30′s in the second half which is once again league average.

Harrison is a wonderful real world arm, but he’s just not that exciting from a fantasy perspective if we’re talking about a standard 5×5 setup.

Eric O’Flaherty – regressing or bad luck? I’m in a points league with Solds.
@eoin_daly

Boy expectations can be rough.

O’Flaherty was dynamic last year with a 0.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 67 Ks in 73.2 innings. There’s simply no way that anyone keeps up that pace year to year. This season he’s working on a 2.87 ERA. His career mark is 3.11. His WHIP is 1.34. His career mark is 1.29. His K/9 is 7.47. His career mark is 7.00. His K/BB ratio is 2.17. His career mark is 2.16. Moreover, his 64 percent ground ball rate is not only massive, its 11 percentage points better than his career mark. The only real downer for him at this point is a more than doubling of his HR/F mark (from 6.00 in his career to 16 percent this year). When that number normalizes, and it should, we’re likely to see his ratios improve a bit. O’Flaherty has been fine based on his career numbers, and solid regardless of his “regression.” Last season was simply one of those for the ages type of efforts and he was never going to repeat that success this season.

As for Solds, that is the category that I keep pushing for relievers. With all the turnover in the 9th inning, literally two-thirds of all closers from opening day have changed this year, isn’t it time we move on from the antiquated recording of points for relievers that relies so heavily on the save? Why not just use Solds (saves + holds) as a better representation of relievers value? You wouldn’t have to roster a guy like Heath Bell with his 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP for his save total, you could instead roster a guy like O’Flaherty who has pitched much better even if he doesn’t have the saves total to prove it (O’Flaherty has a Solds make of 15, just six behind the 21 mark of Bell).

CONTEST – Have you signed up yet for a chance to take me on in a one day fantasy baseball battle, 1-on-1? Click on the link to the DailyJoust contest to get more details.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Player Profile: Heath Bell

One of the best closers in the game, Heath Bell is moving from the left coast to the right coast as his days in San Diego have ended. As you are well aware at this point, Bell signed a 3-year deal to close for the Marlins worth $27 million (there is an option of $9 million for 2015). Did the Marlins solidify the 9th inning or did they add a slightly overweight, skill deteriorating righty who might be a mighty expensive setup man by the end of the contract (one thing we do know for certain is that the Marlins new uniforms are awful looking, hideous actually)?

There is no disputing the fact that Bell has been one of the best closers in baseball the last three years. Each of those seasons saw Bell produce at least 42 saves making him the only arm in the game with at least 40-saves each of the past three campaigns. Obviously, it’s hardly a surprise that his total of 132 saves leads baseball the past three years (the Giants’ Brian Wilson is second with 122 of those suckers). Bell clearly knows how to shut the door on opponents when given the chance. However, I’m a bit nervous when it comes to Bell. Why? You know I’m gonna tell you…

Bell saw his ERA rise by half a run last year to 2.44, but that doesn’t concern me. ERA’s can be artificially low or high with relievers because of their low innings pitched totals. If we take things to the next level and look at his xFIP we see a 3.67 mark, nearly half a run above his career mark and the second worst total of his career. It’s pretty easy to see why his xFIP was elevated last year – he simply didn’t pitch as well as we’re used to seeing.

(1) Bell’s K/9 rate in 2011was 7.32, a career worst, and 1.90 below his career rate. That’s a scary dip. Bell cut his BB/9 rate down to 3.02, a 4-year best actually, but still 0.01 above his career rate. The result was a K/BB of 2.43, more than half a batter below his career level and a career worst number. Concerns about here.

(2) Bell was greatly aided by Petco Park during his career as a Padres’ reliever. Bell allowed only eight homers over his last three seasons when he hurled 202.1 innings. That’s really not a sustainable rate for a guy who has posted a GB/FB ratio of about 1.25 the past three years. If a few more of those flies reach the seats, Bell’s ERA will go way up. Speaking of batted balls, Bell has seen his ground ball rate dip the past couple of years, and his 43.3 percent mark in 2011 was a career worst. This is another somewhat troubling trend.

(3) Bell had a .261 BABIP in 2011, .040 points below his career rate. Given that he also permitted a line drive rate of 21.3 percent, a 5-year high, a pretty strong case can be made that Bell’s fantasy numbers last season were better than they should have been.

None of the above signals that the end of Bell’s run of success is going to be in May of 2012. However, there are enough cracks in the armor here that you should be wary of Bell having yet another stupendous season. I’m not saying that it isn’t possible that he will go off once again, he’s been an elite option for three years now, but I will say this – the trends that we’ve seen from Bell do not paint the picture of a man who still possesses his former elite level skills. Not as young as you might think he is, Bell is already 33 years old and coming off his worst season in three years. Barring injury he’ll likely continue to rack up saves, and a top-10 type closing season still seems quite probable, but his days as an elite closer are likely much closer to the end of the story than the introduction.

By Ray Flowers

Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors

I bemoan the Yankees and Red Sox all the time, and with good reason I believe. Not only does the national media seem to think that they are the only two teams in baseball, they routinely spend money like they are printing it in the basement. So far this offseason those two teams get a pass as it’s the Angels and the Marlins who are playing with Monopoly money.

The Marlins have a new stadium that cost $640 million, and for some reason that has led them to think that they are going to be able to sell it out for the next decade. Good luck with that. The fact of the matter is that the Marlins have had some great teams over the years but the fans just haven’t consistently come to the park (with so much to do in Florida, I can understand why that is the case). Will that change after the moves the team is making? It had better or this will be a disastrous situation in a few years (a cycle that they have unfortunately been through multiple times).

The Marlins fired off the first huge salvo of the the offseason when they made Jose Reyes their new shortstop. Of course, we’re now getting this back and forth from Hanley Ramirez who apparently feels disrespected that the Fish would bring in someone to play his position. Get over yourself Hanley. Reyes is a better defensive shortstop, that’s just the fact, and his addition to the lineup is a huge infusion of talent and skill. Suck it up, get back to full health, and cause some serious damage with your new running mate homie.
Cost: 6 years, $108 million

The Marlins also signed two hurlers to bolster the staff. They added Heath Bell to lock down the ninth inning on a 3-year deal with a fourth year option. They then went out and surprised everyone by adding Mark Buehrle on a four year contract when most didn’t think they were truly in on the lefty until late in the game (I will have write ups on both players in the near future in the ever popular Player Profile series). Bell is a top-10 closer, and while Buehrle has never been an elite arm, he has 11-straight seasons of 200-innings and 10 wins, and no pitcher in the game can match that feat.
Cost: Bell – 3 years, $27 million ($9 million option)
Buehrle – 4 years, $58 million

TOTAL COST: $193 million (plus $9 million option on Bell)

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

The Angels, apparently frustrated that they didn’t get to blow their wad last year on Adrian Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford, have gone totally bonkers. Not only did they grab the greatest hitter of our generation, they also added the best starting pitcher on the market for good measure.

Out of nowhere, an I’m talking something akin to the admission by Darth Vader that he was Luke Skywalker’s father, the Angels swooped in and signed Albert Pujols after everyone in the media had him going to the Marlins or Cardinals. The Angels offer was $40 or so million more than the other two teams were reportedly willing to spend. The result is that Pujols will receive the second largest contract in baseball history behind only the 10 year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees. Already 31 years old, I think it’s foolish to give Pujols a 10 year deal, but that’s what it took to obtain his services and Angels’ owner Arte Moreno would not be denied his prize this offseason.
Cost: 10 years, $250-260 million

Needing a compliment for their new toy on offense, the Angels also signed the best pitcher on the free agent market, C.J. Wilson (for my thoughts on what Wilson brings to the table, give his Player Profile a read). Given that estimates all offseason penned Wilson as a pitcher who wanted, and was likely to receive, $100 million, can it be said that the Angels actually got a bargain here? A rotation of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Wilson and Ervin Santana sounds mighty impressive and should cause plenty of AL teams to be Nervous Nancies heading into the 2012 season.
Cost: 5 years, $75 to $77.5 million

TOTAL COST: $325 to 337.5 million

Can money by a championship? We’ll find out as money is flying around this offseason with no regard to the fact that the United States economy is not exactly booming right now. Time will tell, but as we’ve seen many times in sports, throwing money around isn’t always the answer.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 5th, 2011

I intended to do a video today but for some reason, likely the incessant partying I’ve been doing at bars of late, my voice decided to rebel leaving me sounding like Peter Brady of the Brady Bunch.

Jose Reyes and the Marlins have agreed to a 6-year, $106 million deal. He’ll likely bat leadoff for the Mets, an it appears almost certain that he will play shortstop for the Marlins moving Hanley Ramirez to third base. Obviously adding third base eligibility for Hanley would substantially increase his value, especially in those leagues that use middle and corner infielders. Reports are good that Hanley’s rehab with his shoulder are going well. The real issue here is will he allow his feelings to be hurt and mope because he’s being asked to switch positions, or, will he come into camp healthy and with his head on straight, ready to team with Reyes as the most dynamic top of the order duo in the game?

Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder: Everyone is waiting for these two big fish to choose a home. I find it impossible to believe that the Marlins are still in on Pujols despite what reports say (are they really going to dish out more than $275 million in contracts this offseason? Don’t forget, they have already added Heath Bell). The Cubs might offer to make Pujols the highest paid player on a yearly basis, even if they aren’t willing to give him 8-10 years like he would like. Fielder, seems like he’s just laying in the weeds waiting for his $150 million.

C.J. Wilson wants $100 million. It’s looking like he could get it too. Reports suggest that the Marlins and Angels, and two other mystery clubs, already have offers on the table for Wilson. The best hurler on the market, I broke down his prospects for 2012 in his Player Profile.

Aramis Ramirez is the best third baseman in the market, and after the two first baseman I mentioned above, he’s the best bat available on the infield. The Angels, Brewers and Phillies are all believed to have serious interest in Aramis after the 33 year old hit 26 homers with 93 RBI last season for the Cubs.

Jimmy Rollins hit 16 homers, knocked in 63 runs, scored 87 times and stole 30 bases for the Phillies proving that he is far from washed up. At 33 years of age he realizes this will be his last big contract, and he’s looking at someone to give him five years on a deal. The Phils have repeatedly stated that they will not go five years to keep him.

Rafael Furcal had an appendectomy last week. He will be fine for the start of the season, now he just needs to find a place to play. He’s seeking at least a two year deal, not an unreasonable request for the 34 year old.

Josh Willingham has nine teams interested in his services if you believe the report by Jerry Crasnick (I have no reason whatsoever to doubt the veracity of the report). Why all the interest in a guy who hit .246 with just a .332 OBP in 2011? Because the guy can power the ball. Josh hit 29 homers with 98 RBI last season and figures to have a few more years of production near that level if he can stay healthy enough to remain on the field (he’s averaged just 121 games a season the past four years).

Hiroki Kuroda wanted to remain with the Dodgers, but with the Dodgers signing Chris Capuano to a 2-year deal the belief is that the Dodgers no longer have an interest in bringing back the righty. Rumors have long circulated that is was L.A. of bust for Kuroda – meaning he was would return to Japan if the Dodgers didn’t bring him back – but teams like the Angels, Cubs and Rockies are known to have an interest.

Nate McLouth might end up back where it all started. After failing miserably in his time in Atlanta, the oft injured outfielder apparently is drawing some interest from his former team in Pittsburgh. Just 31 years old an only two seasons removed from 20 homers, 19 steals, 70 RBI and 86 runs scored, McLouth is the ideal cheap signing that could yield an excellent return on investment.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August26, 2011

(1) Giants/Padres deal for Heath Bell doesn’t materialize. Giants left with wounded Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo.

(2) Johan Santana likely done for year (possibly Jonathan Niese as well). Jose Reyes hopefully back next week.

(3) Indians place Josh Tomlin/Michael Brantley on DL. Shin-Soo Choo hurt. Jim Thome now an Indian.

(4) Curtis Granderson having a historic season for the Yankees.

(5) Travis Snider wrist injury ends his season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August25, 2011

(1)  Tommy Hanson – more tests on shoulder.

(2) Aramis Ramirez – absolutely on fire.

(3) Waiver-wire claims: Jim Thome, Heath Bell, Carlos Pena. For more see Waiver-Wire Claims.

(4) Carlos Ruiz has 5-straight two hit games.

(5) Matt Wieters showing signs of improvement.

(6) Carl Crawford finally hitting like… Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers

Waiver-Wire Claims

Players get placed on waivers all the time late in the year. After the trade deadline passes at the end of July, players can still be dealt, but instead of it being a sure thing, there are a lot more hoops to jump through in order for a player to switch squads. In essence, here’s what happens.

(1) A player is exposed to waivers.

(2) Teams have the chance to claim the player in order of their record from worst to best.

(3) Once a team claims a player they have a 48 hours to work out a deal.

(4) If a deal is not worked out, then the player stays on his current team and can be “pulled back” from waivers with no penalty. If that player is put on waivers yet again, he cannot be pulled back a second time.

(5) If a player passes through waivers with no team putting in a claim, then that player can freely be traded to any team in the league.

For more on the process see Jayson Stark’s explanation.

Though waiver claims are private, the information always leaks out. Current claims would appear to be in place for the following players.

Heath Bell: Claimed by the Giants
The Giants have Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson on the DL. The team has expressed optimism that both arms will be fine in short order (Romo could even return by the end of the week), but this move suggests otherwise. Still, it should be pointed out that teams often put in claims on players to “block” that player from going to another team. The Giants could merely have claimed Bell with no intention of working out a deal for him just so teams with better records than them (i.e. the Diamondbacks) wouldn’t have the chance to claim Bell. It could also mean that there is serious concern about the condition of Wilson’s elbow.

Jason Kubel: Unknown Claim
Kubel has appeared in only 80 game because of injury but that hasn’t diminished his on field work that sees his current “pace” as .290-18-90 over 160 games. Kubel has hit only .252 over his last 103 at-bats, but he would bring a strong bat to the outfield of a contending team. He’s even hit lefties well with year with a .829 OPS, a shockingly impressive number for a guy who owns a .692 OPS against left handers in his career.

Carlos Pena: Unknown Claim
In each of the past four years Pena has hit 28 homers with 84 RBIs. This season he has 23 homers and 67 RBI. However, he’s also hitting .223 this year, though that isn’t at all unexpected given his batting average numbers the past three years (.247, .227 and .196). He has the power to hit it out of any yard, and he knows how to take a walk which has led to a career .350 OBP, a rather impressive number for a guy who has hit .239 in more than 4,000 at-bats.

Wandy Rodriguez: Claimed by the Rockies
The Astros might be willing to move Wandy given that he is owed $37 million the next three years, but they are going to have to get some talent back for him (i.e. this isn’t being viewed as a pure salary dump move). The Rockies could certainly use a big league read arm like Wandy’s to take up the space vacated by the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez out of town.

Jim Thome: Unknown Claim
The perfect wavier-wire claim type, Thome would likely be moved into a reserve role with a contending team which would greatly diminish his fantasy value. Still, as he has shown of late, the guy can still hit as he’s batting .290 with six homers, 21 RBI an a .947 OPS over his last 29 games.

By Ray Flowers