Deadline Weekend

I’m on a working vacation. As almost all of you know by now, I do a daily fantasy show for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. While I do the show from the Bay Area in California, and I’m not kidding I literally do the show in my slippers at times, my co-hosts are in St. Louis while the SiriusXM studio that the show originates from is in Washington D.C. I was able to visit D.C. to meet the crew this week, and it was a great time. I’m now in St. Louis and the good times are still rolling. Some thoughts from the trip…

Went to the legendary Pappy’s Smokehouse for lunch today in St. Louis. Had quite the feast, and the staff was super friendly. Give yourself a lot of time if you go though, it took 45 minutes in line just to place our order.

It’s warm as hell back east. It’s 90 degrees in STL today an it feels cool compared to the temperatures I’ve been subjected to of late.

I toured the dome where the Rams play (thanks Amanda), and got a behind the scenes tour. Nice facility, but odd to think about a football game being played under a roof.

Speaking of the NFL, I’ve been asked multiple times about whether or not I will be ranking football players here at BBGuys. The answer to that question is – I think so. I won’t be doing much NFL writing here – though I will be writing NFL for Rotoinfo.com and FantasyAlarm.com. However, I’m thinking about doing something for the BBGuys crowd, and that is, releasing my own personal positional rankings. I’m thinking that I might do so next week, so look for information on how you can get your hands on the “Oracle’s” 2011 NFL rankings.

Some trade deadline thoughts…

Hunter Pence is as consolid a hitter as you will find. Any team would be wise to add him to the mix if the cost wasn’t prohibitive.

Ubaldo Jimenez should remain a Rockie. Don’t know why they would be looking to deal him when they control him for the next few years at a very reasonable price.

Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera are available for the right price according to reports. According to the Royals that ‘right price’ is a #3 starting pitcher. Good luck with that Royals.

The Rangers aren’t certain what is wrong with Neftali Feliz, so they are looking to add an arm to their bullpen. They appear to be a finalist in the Heath Bell sweepstakes, but the two sides are having a hard problem coming to an agreement. Late word suggests that the Rangers are now interested in the Athletics’ Andres Bailey. However, don’t you think they are gonna have to pay an awful lot to get an arm from their own division? Given that Bailey is under control through 2014 this is most likely a smokescreen being set out to get the Padres back to the dealing table.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July21, 2011

Potential Trade Targets

HITTERS: (1) Hunter Pence (2)  Ryan Ludwick (3) David DeJesus (4) Coco Crisp (5) Melky Cabrera / Jeff Francoeur (6) Carlos Beltran

PITCHERS: (1) Kevin Slowey (2) Mike Adams / Heath Bell. (3) Jason Isgrinhausen

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 19, 2011

photo © 2010 Jeremy Bronson | more info (via: Wylio)

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, and your wish is my command.

Give Ubaldo Jimenez, get Jay Bruce – thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

Ah, the case of Jay Bruce strikes again.

Bruce, the talented outfielder for the Reds, runs as hot as Jennifer Aniston in Horrible Bosses and as cold as a snake whose heat lamp has blown a bulb. Bruce was arguably the best batter in baseball in May hitting .342 with 12 homers, 33 RBI and 23 runs scored on the month (28 games). However, over his other 64 games played this year he’s hit only nine homers, knocked in 24 runs, scored 29 times and hit .,227. Yikes is right. Regardless of the nausea inducing ride, Bruce is still on pace to hit 35 homers with 97 RBI, 88 runs and 10 steals and that is some serious production. However, you take the risk of adding the “ugly” Bruce – there’s no guarantee that Jennifer Aniston is going to com and frolic for you, so there’s certain risk in adding the schizophrenic outfielder.

Ubaldo has had a renaissance of late. Over his last nine outings he had gone 5-3, but it’s his ratios that really sparkle. Over his last 59.2 innings Jimenez has a 2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and a superb 4.15 K/BB ratio. He’s completely locked in for the Rockies. As a result of his recent hot streak his numbers this season compare quite nicely to his career numbers.

2011: 8.08 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 1.39 GB/FB, 0.65 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP, 3.59 xFIP
Career: 8.09 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB, 0.57 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP, 3.83 xFIP

With the way that Ubaldo is locked in right now, and the guessing game you have to play with Bruce, I’d side with Ubaldo in this comparison.

Is it time to move on from Justin Smoak?
– @pied1

Simply put if you’re in a 10 or 12 team mixed league, the answer is yes. If you’re in a 15 team mixed league though, the answer is much more open ended because of his current struggles (obviously the homers, 12, and RBI, 43, make him a viable AL-only option even with his batting average in the dumps at .227).

After hitting .284 in April with a .920 OPS, it has been all downhill for Smoak. His run total, RBI total, batting average and OBP have declined each subsequent month since April. Moreover, since the calender flipped to May, Smoak has appeared in 64 games with a slash line of .209/.301/.372. He has hit a home run every 29.25 ABs in that time, but given that the league average slash line this season is .255/.322/.399 you can easily determine that Smoak, as a first base option, has been a huge drag on your team if he’s been in your lineup. Would I move on from Smoak in a mixed league? For certain I would. In fact, I’m so down on the guy right now, relative to the mashers at first base, that I didn’t even list him in my top-20 at first in my Rest of the Way Rankings for Hitters.

In a 13 team league 5 x 5 roto, would you stash Stephen Strasburg as keeper for 25th round pick?
– @Kossdaboss7

Word out of Washington is that Strasburg’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is going so well that he might appear in the big leagues in the month of September. Regardless of whether or not that comes to fruition, there is near 100 percent certainty that he will be back to full strength on Opening Day 2012.

Does that mean you should keep him at the cost of a 25th round selection? The answer to that is an unqualified yes. Reasonable expectations should set the upper bar at 160-innings for Strasburg next year, that’s how many innings the Nats are going to limiting their other young Tommy John survivor – Jordan Zimmerman – to this year. Still, 160 innings is plenty good enough for you to siphon off 25th round value from Strasburg. Though Strasburg only has 68 big league innings under his belt, let’s use his performance in that time as a baseline for expectations. Let’s further postulate that he returns 75 percent of his 2010 performance. What would that net you? How about a 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.14 K/9 and a 4.05 K/BB ratio. If he were to do that over 160 innings he would still more than warrant a 25th round protection.

Who is better to roster assuming they take over the closer role for their team due to trade – Mike Adams or Mike Dunn?
– @slappzilla

The rumor mill suggests that Heath Bell will be dealt out of San Diego with the assumption being that Adams will take over as the closer.

The rumor mill suggests that Leo Nunez will be dealt out of Florida with the assumption being that Dunn could take over as the closer.

However, both situations are hairy. Not only are we making decisions based upon supposition, there are issues with both replacement arms. While Adams would certainly be the first choice to take over in San Diego, the same reports that suggest that Bell will be moved are also saying that Adams is available for the right price. If Adams is dealt it seems quite possible that he could remain in a setup role. As for Dunn, there has been no official mention of who the favorite would be to take over in the 9th inning with names like Edward Mujica and Randy Choate also in the mix (and don’t forget about Steve Cishek).

So who would I suggest adding? I’m gonna say you go with the pitcher with the best skills (remember the motto, go for skills vs. role). Dunn has a nice arm with a 10.64 K/9 rate in his career, but that 6.52 BB/9 mark might even make Carlos Marmol blush. It’s damn near impossible to count on a guy who can’t throw strikes. As for Adams, here are his rankings amongst all pitchers who have thrown at least 125 innings since the start of the 2009 season:

1st in ERA (1.35)
1st in base runners per nine (7.67)
1st in hits per nine (5.22)
14th in K/BB (4.00).

Give me Mr. Adams who is, flat out, one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball when healthy.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

Last Friday I released my ROTW Rankings for Hitters to equal parts adulation and scorn. Today, I’ll further infuriate the masses by releasing my ROTW Rankings for Pitchers.

Before moving on to the rankings it should be noted that pitchers are only listed at one spot (Tim Stauffer might qualify as a reliever and starter in your league, but in the BaseballGuys.com rankings he only appears as a starter).

These rankings are my expectations for pitchers from this point forward. If Josh Johnson is healthy and at 100% percent he’d be in my top-10. However, he’s not even close to that at this point which is why he doesn’t appear anywhere close to that high on the list.

Relievers are so tough to predict because of roles. I’ve tried to blend my expectations based upon what role a pitcher will hold (i.e. Mike Adams will close if he stays with the Padres and Heath Bell is dealt). In most cases it’s still best to target the skills and not the role, but you have to objectively consider whether or not at this point of the season whether or not the role is more valuable.

PITCHERS: Mid-Season ROTW Rankings

What’s on Tap?

photo © 2008 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

Tonight’s a big night for me as I get ready to make a big home cooked meal. What’s on the menu? Pancetta and peas, creamed corn and a main course of stir fried chicken and eggplant. I know you wish you were coming over. Don’t lie.

Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez are two of the better closers in baseball, but will they remain so for the duration of the 2011 season? Both pitchers are gearing up to be dealt by their respective clubs. You have to figure that both will be dealt to a team that will ask them to close, but what if a team like the Yankees comes a calling? Mariano Rivera is going to remain the closer for the Yanks, we all know that, so an addition in the pen would be one in which the new guy would be asked to serve as a setup man. Again, I don’t anticipate either bell or K-Rod going to a team that won’t ask them to work the 9th inning, but it’s something to keep in mind if you own either hurler right now.

Adam Dunn please wake up from your slumber. Perhaps he made a wish in a water fountain that resulted in him switching bodies with his friend who always wondered what it would be like to be a big league baseball player? I know that sounds stupid, but it is the same basic plot of The Change-Up, minus the baseball connection, a movie that will be in theaters in August (it stars Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman for all you ladies out there). Dunn is hitting .175 with seven homers in 217 at-bats. Are you kidding me? Dunn has hit at least 38 homers in 7-straight year, tied with Babe Ruth for the second longest such streak in baseball history. He’s looking like he may not even get to half that mark this season. He’s been so awful that his career OBP of .378 dwarfs his current slugging percent (.323). My goodness, his SLG is only .009 points higher than his OBP this season. You simply can’t lose your skills overnight, can you?

Do you need a laugh? If you do, and you missed this yesterday, here’s a wonderfully amusing story about Josh Hamilton who says that he can’t hit during day games because he has blue eyes.

Orlando Hudson has appeared in 1,180 games in the big leagues in a career that started in 2002. He just set a career best with his 11th theft of the year. He’s only appeared in 40 games this season. It’s pretty rare for a guy to go from stealing eight bases a year to 44 (his current pace if he played 160 games). Hudson certainly will not get there because of missed time, but it’s still remarkable to consider how out of bounds he is right now on the bases. Guys don’t suddenly take jumps like this in performance. Now where is my update on Jose Bautista again?

Speaking of Bautista he will be the Blue Jays third baseman moving forward. You can’t blame the Jays for bringing him in from the outfield, not when the third base position has produced five homers, 26 RBI and a .177 batting average this season for the team from the Great White North.

I love bacon. By itself, on a sandwich, in a salad or wrapped around some type of fish. If you disagree with my assessment that bacon is the best food on the planet then I don’t know what to tell you.

Have we all overlooked just how amazing that catcher Brian McCann is when he has a bat in his hands? McCann is currently hitting .305 with 13 homers, 45 RBI an a .903 OPS – fantastic numbers for a backstop. Since the start of the 2006 season he leads catchers in homers (120) and RBI (486). He’s also hit a robust .290 in his career.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 10, 2011

photo © 2008 Steve Paluch | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Is it time to cut bait on Corey Hart?
– @DeKampanilya

Hart’s season started late because of injury, and then the Brewers made the mistake of activating him too quickly (he had only 15 at-bats appearances in the minors and produced two hits). “Maybe we could have kept him there longer but some of that has to do with the player… Corey thought he was ready,” said manager Ron Roenicke. Clearly, Hart wasn’t ready. Through 34 at-bats he is batting .176, has a .382 OPS and hasn’t produced a single RBI. So do you drop him? Would you drop Troy Tulowitzki? If you weren’t aware, he has been  worse than Hart the past two weeks hitting just .093. Obviously Tulo is a better player than Hart, but the point should be obvious – you don’t want to panic and drop guys with track records of success because of down periods. Coming off a season in which he hit 31 homers, knocked in 102 runs and scored 91 times – something only seven other hitters in the game did last year – it would be pretty darn tough to recommend dropping Hart unless you are desperate or in a really shallow mixed league.

Raul Ibanez off waivers? Yeah, I’m that desperate.
– @Chris_Rinaldi

Ibanez had an 0-for-35 stretch recently, and the results of that slump are clearly evident in his .222 batting average for the season. At the same time, the guy has completely turned things around of late with five multiple hit games in his last seven outings. In fact, over the last seven days Ibanez is hitting .462 with two homers and five RBI as he is on his way to putting that massive slump to bed. However, there are concerns with Ibanez. First, he will be 39 years old next month and coming off his worst HR total (16) in six years and his worst RBI mark (83) in seven years. Second, Domonic Brown is closing fast hitting .367 with four bombs, 10 RBI and 11 runs in 13 minor league games as he works his way back from injury. Will Brown eat into Ibanez’s playing time? He may not if Ben Francisco continues to struggle so mightily (he has one hit in 18 at-bats in May), but both Ibanez and Francisco could be put on notice shortly when Brown is called up.

Ibanez is a veteran run producer and manager Charlie Manuel is nothing if not supportive, sometimes to a fault, of his veterans. There isn’t much reason to think that Ibanez can’t replicate the numbers he posted last season (.275-16-83), even with his slow start, so you’ll have to decide how much value there would be in your league for an outfielder like that.

Chris Iannetta and John Buck are on a tear lately. Which would you rather own?
– @chillmodious

Back in January I broke down Buck in How to Evaluate a Player. You can read that piece to find out why I felt that Buck didn’t appear likely to replicate the numbers he posted last season (.281-20-66-53). So far this season I’ve been sort of right. Buck is hitting a poor .236, though predicting a regression in his batting average was the easy to do after last season, but the counting numbers have been solid. If Buck were to maintain his current pace over 409 at-bats, the total he received last year with Toronto, here is how his 2011 effort would stack up.

2010: .281-20-66-53
2011: .236-15-63-59

While admitting my initial thoughts of a regression appear to be taking hold, I’m surprised at the fact that Buck has done as well as he has this year. At the same time, Buck has three homers and eight RBI in his last 10 games, or his numbers would look awful. He still isn’t getting on base (.317 OBP), but I will commend him for his BB/K mark which is 0.52. Of course, only once in his career has that mark been 0.40, and for his career it’s 0.28, so it’s doubtful to hold up. So in the end, I’m still sticking with the regression I predicted three and a half months ago.

I’ve long been a fan of Iannetta. He’ll never hit for a strong average, he is currently batting .247 and striking out 35 percent of the time, but he has always had plenty of power (five homers in just 77 ABs) and he has always known how to work the count (his OBP is a whopping .414). The difference between these two backstops boils down to this for me. Iannetta is younger (by three years), hits in a better park and knows how to take a walk. Sooner or later those factors will overcome a grip it and rip it hitter like Buck. While their numbers look pretty similar at this point, I’d offer this slant. Let’s compare each hitters career numbers, per 400 at-bats, and see what we end up with.

J. Buck: .243-15-56-47 with a .302 OBP and .723 OPS
Iannetta: .235-19-67-55 with a .358 OBP and .799 OPS

Give me Iannetta who has slightly more power, a much better eye, is younger and hits in the better ball park.

I need Closer. Would you deal Robinson Cano for Heath Bell and Grady Sizemore?
– @mattsenatore

Cano was drafted as the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. He’s done little to dissuade anyone from that view as he is hitting .290 with eight homers, 24 RBI and 18 runs scored. For those of you who love “pace” talk – that would equate to a season long fantasy line of .290-40-121-91-10. Uh yeah, that’s pretty good. Clearly you would only move Cano if the return was substantial.

Bell just lost his streak of 41-consecutive save chances converted, but he has still been dynamite yet again. Through 14 appearances Bell has posted a 1.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and has converted eight of nine save chances. His strikeout mark is down almost two full batters from his career mark (7.71 compared to 9.45) and he is walking more batters than ever before (his current BB/9 mark of 3.86 is well above his career rate of 3.03), but I would take those two numbers to be more of a reflection of a small sample size than declining skills. With all the turnover in the 9th inning this year, there can’t be any argument whatsoever that Bell is one of about 10 “locks” at the backend of bullpens right now.

Sizemore started out on fire (he hist .378 in April), and then slumped miserably of late (.143 in May). In total, he’s hitting .288 with a .342 OBP. For his career he has hit .273 with a .363 OBP, so he’s pretty much right on track there. However, he’s really upped the homer pace with five bombs in 73 at-bats leading to a mark of one homer every 14.6 at-bats. Given that he hit one every 25.3 at-bats over his first 3,259 at-bats, you’d have to assume that rate will regress moving forward. However, the biggest concern with Sizemore is his utter lack of thefts. Sizemore has attempted only one steal and he was unsuccessful. It’s no a shock that he has curtailed his running since he is coming back off major knee surgery, but there is a massive difference in terms of the value of a player if he is swiping 20+ bases, as Sizemore did from 2005-08, compared to the a guy who just isn’t running.

I’d hold on to Cano. He’s as certain as any hitter in baseball to meet his lofty projections as an elite option. Sizemore, until he starts running, simply isn’t close to being an elite level fantasy outfielder. Bell is elite, but with seemingly half the teams in the league switching things up in the 9th inning on a daily bases you have, and will have, plenty of options to turn to if you need save help moving forward.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Top-20 RPs for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for us to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-20 Top-10 Closers for 2011 and try to explain how it is possible that two of our experts left Andrew Bailey out of their top-10.

ANDREW BAILEY

As Ted asked in his the initial report, how is it that Mike Sheets and Seth Trachtman left Bailey completely out of their top-10? I listed him at #5, so the question is, was I right or wrong? Come on, do you really think I’m ever wrong? Here are the data points that prove beyond a doubt that Bailey should be listed in front of guys like Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street and Chris Perez and firmly in the top-10 for 2011.

(1) Amongst pitchers who tossed at least 40-innings in 2010, Bailey was 5th in ERA (1.47). Moreover, and make sure you are firmly planted in your seat when you read this next sentence, Bailey has the best ERA in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125-innings. Bailey’s mark is 1.70, slightly ahead of the 1.78 ERA of Al Spalding (and yes, that is the same Spalding whose name adorns sporting apparel these days).

(2) Bailey was 12th in WHIP (0.96) in 2010. Moreover, the past two seasons, amongst hurlers with at least 125-innings pitched, Bailey is #1 in the game with a base runner per nine mark of 8.16 – slightly ahead of the 8.26 mark Mariano Rivera.

(3) Bailey had a mere 7.72 K/9 mark in 2010, but amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 125-innings the past two years Bailey’s K/9 mark of 9.05 is 28th in baseball. Moreover, amongst pitchers with at least 50-saves, that K/9 mark is is 8th.

(4) Bailey has 51 saves the past two years, the 20th best mark in baseball. That number would be higher if not for two factors. First, he wasn’t the closer for the A’s at the start of the 2009 season, and second, injury limited him to just 49 innings in 2010. Still, Bailey has 25-saves in back-to-back seasons, and only 16 men have done that.

Given all that data, I honestly can’t understand how someone who choose to leave Bailey out of their top-10, unless they are going to argue that he is an injury concern. Even then, I’m not buying that argument – Bailey must be a top-10 selection at closer in 2011.

JONATHAN BROXTON

Broxton is a dominating force on the hill. In 2009 he racked up 36 saves, posted a 2.61 ERA and an otherworldly 13.50 K/9 mark. However, he had a couple of rough patches in 2010 that resulted in him losing his closing role to Hong-Chih Kuo in the second half of the season. At the same time, the 295 lbs, 95+ mph throwing Broxton still posted some dominating marks in 2010 including:

10.54 K/9 – Better than Jonathan Papelbon (10.21), Joakim Soria (9.73), Jose Valverde (9.00) and David Aardsma (8.88) to name just a few.

2.61 K/BB – Better than guys like Brian Fuentes (2.35), Chris Perez (2.18) and Brad Lidge (2.17) to name a few.

1.46 GB/FB – Better than Joakim Soria (1.37), Brian Wilson (1.28), Francisco Cordero (1.18) and Heath Bell (1.16) to name but a few.

So why the struggles in 2010?

(1) He walked way too many guys at 4.04 per nine. In each of the previous three seasons that mark was below 3.55.

(2) He was unlucky, at least that’s what I’m calling it. Broxton owns a .328 career BABIP, a mark that he had been at or under in each of the last four seasons. So how do you explain his ’10 mark of .369? Again, I go back to bad luck being the main culprit.

I could see how some of the guys on staff would pass on ranking Broxton in their top-10, I get it. I just hope that everyone holds that view heading into next season so that I can grab Broxton in the middle rounds because I have full confidence in him posting strong totals yet again in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Miss Something?

I came across a note today on Twitter, and if you aren’t following Baseball Guys on Twitter shame on you. Here is the note from the official MLB twitter feed: “Congrats to @Padres closer Heath Bell on 2010 MLB Delivery Man of the Year Award. Converted 47 of 50 save opportunities, MLB-best 94%.” Wait a second, did I miss something? What about the majors saves leader, Brian Wilson? Let’s compare the two relievers from the NL West.

Wilson had 48 saves. Bell had 47.
Wilson had a 1.81 ERA. Bell had a 1.93 ERA.
Wilson had a 1.18 WHIP. Bell had a 1.20 WHIP.
Wilson had a .220 BAA. Bell had a .221 BAA.
Wilson had an 11.21 K/9. Bell had a 11.06 K/9.
Wilson had a 3.13 BB/9. Bell had a 3.60 BB/9.
Wilson had a 3.56 K/BB. Bell had a 3.07 K/BB.
Wilson had a 86.1 LOB%. Bell had a 81.1 LOB%

Am I missing something here? Did they really erase the fact that Wilson was a better pitcher in 2010 and give Bell the award because Wilson had two more blown saves (five to three), or because he had three fewer wins (six to three)? Please tell me they didn’t. You tell me, am I off here? If I am, I just don’t see it.

Cliff Lee is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in seven postseason starts. In those starts he has struck out 54 in 56.1 innings while walking just six batters. This season, in two starts against the Rays, he struck out 21 while not walking a single batter in 16 innings.

A.J. Burnett is slated to get a start in the ALCS against the Rangers. He was truly brutal down the stretch with a 1-7 record and 6.61 ERA over the final two months of the year. He also went 4-14 with a 6.48 ERA over the final four months of the season. On the year he went 10-15 with a 5.25 ERA, and that is the worst ERA by any Yankees’ hurler in history who tossed at least 180-innings. In history folks. So why is he starting in the playoffs? It can’t be because he had a 2.50 ERA with 17 Ks in 18 innings this season against the Rangers, can it?

Bryce Harper will see some action in the Arizona Fall League. The 17 year old, he’ll be 18 on Saturday, has been placed on the “taxi squad” of the Scottsdale Scorpions which means he will play two days a week. Despite all the hype and hoopla, Harper is likely two years away from the majors as is, and he will begin the 2011 season in Single-A. More on the phenom can be found at All Nats All the Time.

With Billy Wagner heading into retirement as the most dominant left-handed closer in big league history (I don’t care if he finished his career with two fewer saves than John Franco), the Braves will now turn to a new face in the 9th inning, an it almost certainly will be Craig Kimbrel. If you aren’t in a keeper league and don’t know who this kid is take note – the dude has absolutely filthy stuff. Kimbrel tossed 20.2 innings for the Braves this season positing a 0.44 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. With an average fastball over 95 mph he struggled with control walking nearly seven batters per nine innings (6.97 per nine). However it’s that heat that makes Kimbrel special, and it led to a K/9 rate this season of 17.42. If you’ve never heard of a mark that high before I understand why – it’s the highest mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 20-innings in a season. Told you he was someone you need to know for 2011.

By Ray Flowers

First Half Pitching Stars

We have a great tool called the Player Rater at Fanball. I write a weekly article where I breakdown the top-50 fantasy performers in the game, and you can find the actual Player Rater Tool by clicking on the link. This week I did things a bit different. Since we are at the half way point of the season I broke down the top-10 guys at each position, versus the top-50 overall, and you can read that breakdown at MLB Player Rater: Midseason Stars. In the current piece here at BaseballGuys I’ll break down the top-20 hurlers in the fantasy game as major league baseball gears up for the All-Star Game.

1- Adam Wainwright
He is second in the NL with a 2.11 ERA and a total of 13 victories, while he is second in innings pitched (136.1) and third in WHIP (1.00). The dude is a flat out ace.

2- Josh Johnson
All the early season talk of the #3 man on the list has obscured the fact that JJ leads baseball with a 1.70 ERA and the NL with a 0.96 WHIP. Also, he’s allowed more than one earned run just once in his last 11 starts (he gave up two runs on June 26th).

3- Ubaldo Jimenez
The numbers are spectacular highlighted by by his big league leading 15-1 record and his 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Clearly he’s not affected by the altitude in Colorado.

4- Roy Halladay
Halladay leads baseball with 148 IP, the third highest total in the NL in 15 years at the All-Star break, and his ratios are phenomenal (2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). So how is he only 10-7? Come on Phillies offense, get to it.

5- Billy Wagner
What’s up with that retirement talk Billy? There is no need to contemplate hanging them up given his outstanding work that includes 20 saves, a 1.21 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP an a .156 BAA in 37.1 innings.

6- Mat Latos
Did you know that he is third in baseball with a 0.97 WHIP? Latos also has a 2.45 ERA for the Padres, but the team will likely be cautious with him in the second half because of innings pitched concerns.

7- Mariano Rivera
Amazingly, the guy just never seems to slow down. Is he getting even better with age? His numbers suggest it might be possible: 1.05 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .137 BAA and 20 saves.

8- Rafael Soriano
His K-rate is well off the pace at 7.75 (career 9.68), but otherwise the rest of his performance has been pretty special including a 1.60 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and a stupendous 23-for-24 save conversion mark.

9- Jon Lester
The first lefty starter on the list, Lester overcame a slow start to produce a line that any starter in baseball would be proud of. Lester is 11-3 for the Sox, and ratios like a 2.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are rarely seen in the AL East.

10- Cliff Lee
The newest prize in the Rangers’ corral, Lee leads baseball with a 0.95 WHIP. He’s also posting an unfathomable 15.17 K/BB rate. The best mark in the history of the game for a hurler who qualified for the ERA title is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

11- Jose Valverde
He is 19-for-20 on saves and is sporting sparkling ratios of a 0.92 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. Also, how in the world is it possible to hold batters to a .125 average through 39 innings?

12- Heath Bell
The NL leader with 24 saves has a fine 1.88 ERA, though his 1.33 WHIP would be his worst mark since moving to San Diego (it was 1.21 in 2008).

13- David Price
The AL starter in the All-Star game, Price leads the junior circuit with 12 victories. It would be a shock if he were able to hold on to that 2.42 ERA, he just hasn’t pitched well enough to really deserve that mark.

14- Jonathan Broxton
Despite an irregular usage pattern – long periods of nothing followed by intensive work – Broxton has emerged with a continuation of his 2009 season, and that is a great thing. He has 19 saves, a 2.11 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and an impressive 12.91 K/9 mark leading to a striking 7.86 K/BB rate.

15- Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 and 38 saves the past two years, and just past the halfway point this season he has converted 23 of 25 chances. He also has an impressive 50 Ks in 37.2 innings, a total that goes along swimmingly with his 1.91 ERA.

16- Joakim Soria
No one pays any attention since he pitches for the Royals, but Joakim has 25 saves, the best total in baseball. He also has a 2.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, numbers that are slightly worse than his career averages (2.13 and 0.99).

17- Andy Pettitte
He always wins games so his 11-2 record isn’t a total shock, but his 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are since over the last four seasons he hasn’t produced an ERA better than 4.05 or a WHIP below 1.38.

18- CC Sabathia
With 12 victories he has already posted a 10th straight season of at least 11 wins. He’s also near the top of the AL in ERA (3.09) and WHIP (1.14) which is a yearly occurrence at this point.

19- Leo Nunez
He entered the year with question marks but he has answered them. His 1.55 GB/FB ratio is a career best (career 0.94) and his K-rate is way up to 9.08 (career 6.78). It’s almost as if he is a new pitcher (potential alien abduction?). The work has led to a 1.04 WHIP and 20 saves.

20- Jered Weaver
Don’t even try lying and say that Weaver was your choice to be leading baseball in strikeouts at the All-Star Break (he has 137, six more than Tim Lincecum). That 1.08 WHIP of his is also fourth in the AL. Only his 8-5 record has held him back from being more of a national story.

By Ray Flowers