Mailbag: May 17, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Jason Motte for Bryce Harper. Too much?
– ErikJKatz

We’re all aware of it by now, but the attrition rate of closers this season is better than 50 percent, and that’s just stupefying. What it means is that if you can find a guy who appears to be locked into the 9th inning you better only move him if you are getting a killer deal. Motte has blown two of nine save chances, but he’s locked in for the Cardinals. Motte has pushed his K/9 rate to elite levels at 10.34, and he’s continued to be stingy with the free pass (2.30 per nine) leading to an uber-impressive 4.50 K/BB mark. That’s pretty rare territory an a great indicator that some serious success is going to be heading your way. You could claim small sample size – we’re only taking 15.2 innings for 2012 – so let’s go back to the start of the 2010 season for a broader perspective. In 136 innings Motte has a 2.25 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, 8.93 K/9 mark an a 3.55 K/BB ratio. Those are elite numbers, no?

Harper, the Golden Boy of baseball, has done about what I expected from the youngster. He’s had moments of success and failure intermixed. It’s only been 17 games, and given his age you’d have to say his start has been a success, but at the same time he’s hitting .238 and has a mere .319 OBP. The .460 SLG is solid, but people are expecting more than a homer every 32 at-bats with Bryce Harper (he has two in 63 this season). The fact of the matter is that at this point he really doesn’t profile as more than a fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

If it’s a re-draft league give me Mr. Motte.

My David Ortiz for his Jonathan Papelbon in a H2H League? My closers are David Robertson, Henry Rodriguez, Joe Nathan and Dale Thayer.
– @lilpuppy99

The reliever carousel continues…

Robertson thinks he can return in two weeks from his oblique issue, but how often do we see that happen when that part of the body is injured? Plus, if Rafael Soriano takes off and has a hot start working the 9th, will Robertson just be returned to his familiar 8th inning role?

Rodriguez is dealing with three factors. (1) He’s recently had some tightness in his forearm. (2) His performance of late has been spotty. In his last six appearances he’s walked five batters an allowed six runs over 4.2 innings. (3) Brad Lidge appears to be nearing a return to health, and Drew Storen as well (Storen could be more than a month away though).

Nathan looks pretty much as good as ever. He’s starting to hit 95-96 mph on the gun. He’s converted eight of nine save chances. His ERA is 2.87, his WHIP is 1.15, his K/9 10.91 and his K/BB 9.50. He appears to be “back.”

Thayer has locked down the 9th for the Padres going 4-for-4 in saves and pushing his career mark to one walk in 34 innings. However, as soon as Huston Street is ready to return Thayer loses his job with the Padres.

Papelbon is dominating hitters as he always does: 2.40 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.80 K/9, 4.50 K/BB, 10-for-10 in saves. Nuff said.

Ortiz (.345-8-27-27) has been spectacular so far. At the same time, there are concerns. (1) He only qualifies at DH/Utility limiting his value a bit. (2) After a blazing start that included a .405 average, six homers and 20 RBI in his first 22 games, Ortiz has slowed greatly hitting .259-2-7 over his last 15 contests. Hot starts often blind people to the facts which follow. (A) Ortiz is not a .345 hitter. In fact, three of the past four years he’s failed to hit even .275.  He won’t keep up his current pace. Do you really think he’s going to have his best line drive rate since 2005 this year? Do you also think that a guy with a career .304 BABIP is doing to post a career best .357 mark this season? (B) Despite the success, Ortiz is actually taking walks at a 10 year low, and while I’d like to believe he’s capable of offsetting that by posting a career low K-rate, I find that unlikely to be the case in his 16th big league season.

So do you trade for Papelbon given the fact that three of your four closers may not hold their current 9th inning spots in a month? Ortiz is a high price to pay given that he will be a strong producer all season, but I’d get the Phillies’ closer.

Should I pick up and stash Ubaldo Jimenez? Does he turn it around?
– @Rangerjayfilm

Since I’m sich a glass is half full type, let’s start with the positive.

Ubaldo still alive.

So ends the positive talk.

Facetiousness aside, there’s not much to hang ones hat on here (people see to agree over at Fleaflicker as well where he is owned in only 64 percent of leagues).

A better than eight per nine strikeout guy in his career Ubaldo is currently sitting at 5.48 per nine. Part of the blame there is the fact that his 96.1 mph fastball from 2009-10 is now resting at 92 mph. You can also blame his one time 86 mph slider that now resides at 82 mph. His change up is also down from 87 mph to 83 by the way. The fact of the matter is that he’s lost four mph the past two years, and that’s alarming to say the least. Equally disturbing is that the downward movement that made Ubaldo such a special pitcher has apparently deserted him along with the speed. A one time 50+ percent ground ball arm, that number has dipped from 54.4, to 52.5, to 48.8 to 47.2 percent the past four years. This year, he’s taken another significant step back with that number dropping down to 41 percent.

Struggling to put hitters away, he’s not only been as wild as ever, he’s actually been way worse. However between 3.51 and 3.74 walks the past three years, he’s added nearly three full batters to that mark this year (6.26).  You cannot have success walking that many batters. Ask Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez.

Given his stuff Ubaldo can still get batters out and have success as a big league starter, but with his inability to throw quality strikes and to avoid walks, there’s little chance he turns things around to previous levels unless he somehow magically rediscovers his lost heat. Where’s Rumpelstiltskin when you need to make a wish?

Can David Freese keep this up? Offered Freese for Chris Young.
– @FranksYanks23

Recall above when I wrote about perception becoming reality for some people? Take the case of Freese and look at his numbers the first two months.

April: .333-5-20 with a .935 OPS
May: .222-3-8 with a .786 OPS

In April he was George Brett. In May he’s been Melvin Mora. So are you asking me if he can keep up April or May? The truth lies in the middle since he’s neither Brett nor Mora. Overall he’s appeared in 35 of 37 Cardinals games, and given his track record it’s hard to believe he will be able to keep up that pace. I also feel pretty comfortable in stating that he isn’t a 35 home run, 120 RBI bat he’s on pace to be right now. In truth, I’d be a bit surprised if he’s even a 25-95 bat given the health concerns and the lack of elite power. Also don’t overlook the fact that while his .287 batting average is a strong mark that it would actually be, barely, a four year low.

Young should be back by the end of this week or the start of next week. Before injuring his shoulder he was off to a dynamic start as he was hitting .410 with five homers, 13 RBI and two steals through 11 games. An option to go 20/20 every season, Young has long struggled to lift his batter average to the realm of respectability (he’s never hit .260 in a season). Given that he’s coming back from an injured shoulder he’s basically having to start over meaning that you’ll likely be best served to reset your expectations for Young back to where they were eight weeks ago. Forget the hot start and look at him as a fella who could be a batting average drain while being a potentially significant source of counting category numbers in the outfield.

Do you need outfield help? Are you looking for a speed boost? If so, the easy answer is obviously Young. If you’re looking for some corner infield help and batting average security, the answer is square in the other camp of Freese. Without knowing the answer to those two questions I’d go with the more dynamic talents of Young who can give me 20 steals if pushed, but there are certainly plenty of scenarios in which it would make more sense to hold on to Freese.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: May15, 2012

(1) Matt Kemp to DL.

(2) Christian Friedrich dominating.

(3) Troy Tulowitzki hurt.

(4) Nationals, Yankees, Mets having 9th inning issues.

(5) Dan Haren – buy low candidate?

(6) Jeff Neimann out with a broken leg.

 

By Ray Flowers

Relievers: Wild Wild West

We’re less than a week into the fantasy baseball season, and already people are running to the waiver-wire to address the need to fill the saves category in the fantasy game (is this a great time to bring up why we should include Solds as the fifth fantasy category in place of saves? Solds is saves+holds, and it would give middle relievers as much of a chance to be productive as a closer, so instead of worry about who to roster cause you need a closer, you could simply add the best reliever and be done with it). I’m doing to address the hottest situations of the last few days – Nationals, Rays and Red Sox – right after I break down some thoughts on how everyone should be looking at these situations.

I know that everyone didn’t purchase the 2012 Baseball Guys Draft Guide, if you did you’re likely not in the predicament that some people now find themselves in, but here are a few salient bits of information that I suggested people keep in mind when putting together a team.

When choosing a reliever, target arms that:

Have a K/9 rate of 7.50 or better.
Have a BB/9 rate under 3.00
Have a K/BB rate of at least 2.50
It would also be great if they have a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or better.

* The article PITCHING TARGETS in the Draft Guide breaks these numbers down in much greater detail giving lists of pitchers that qualify.

This also brings up the point that I always preach:

Target skills, not roles.

I want the best pitchers on my team. I have no idea how/when/why a manger might change what he will do in the 9th inning. In simple terms – I don’t want a guy on my team merely cause he is the closer. I want a guy on my team who has the skills to be successful. At some point you need saves, and if you have to roster a guy with poor ratios to get them then so be it, but there is little reason to desperately try and grab “closers” with poor skills off the waiver-wire in the first week of the season. Remember that. It’s a long year, 162 games worth, and just cause a guy is set to close right now doesn’t mean he will be closing in August.

NATIONALS
Closer: Drew Storen (likely out until late April)
Replacements: Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez

This is a bad situation to jump into. It was announced today that Lidge and Rodriguez will alternate working the ninth inning game after game. If you’re in a weekly league, it’s almost impossible to use either guy given that fact. Even in a roto league, be very careful here. If Storen is back in three weeks as expected, how much are you willing to pay for 2-3 saves if you add either backup option?

RAYS
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth (elbow strain. No structural damage)
Replacement: Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, J.P. Howell, Jake McGee

Farnsworth could miss two weeks or two months, we don’t really know, though expectations are that he won’t be out long-term. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rays will go with a closer by committee situation. So what do you do here? Rodney is a disaster and his skill set doesn’t come close to matching my “rules” from above. Howell does have a strong skill set but he walks too many batters (4.19 per nine for his career), is left handed and he threw just 30.2 innings last season. That leaves Peralta as the best choice, not just by default either, but also because of his skills. The last two seasons for Peralta have led to some impressive numbers: 8.49 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 an a 4.07 K/BB. The only thing he doesn’t do is induce grounders (his GB/FB ratio for his career is atrocious at 0.66).

RED SOX
Closer: Andrew Bailey (thumb surgery, out 3-4 months)
Replacement: Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon

This is the situation that has me most surprised. Bailey goes down, he’s out at least the first half of the 2012 season, and the Sox name Aceves the closer. What ensues is a stampede to the waiver-wire to add Aceves as everyone suddenly seems to think he’s an elite closer. I’m not kidding. EVERYWHERE I look people are pushing, shoving, lying and stealing in order to add Aceves. A brief example of that is my Twitter Poll that I ran for two hours today. Of the four options people were given to add to their staff, Aceves was chosen 64 percent of the time. Why? I suggest it’s merely because he is a Red Sox (over at Fleaflicker it doesn’t seem that the craziness has taken full hold). Let’s break Aceves down.

His career K/9 mark is 6.26, well below the 7.50 mark I like to target.
His BB/9 mark is 2.70 for his career, below the 3.00 mark I like to target.
His K/BB ratio is 2.32, below the 2.50 mark I like to target.
His GB/FB ratio is 0.88, below the 1.50 mark I like to target.

Furthermore, even if you don’t like my targets, consider this.
His career K/9 mark is below the big league average.
His career K/BB ratio is one tenth better the big league average.
His GB/FB is well below the big league average.

To summarize, Aceves is a pitcher with average big league skills. Period. Just take a look at his xFIP. For his career that mark is 4.54, more than a run an a half above his 2.93 raw ERA. Simply put he’s the anti-Ricky Nolasco. Aceves is someone who has had success that he hasn’t completely deserved. Moreover, and people seem to be looking right past this, he has no experience in the ninth inning with four career saves. I’ve said it, but let me write it for you all one more time; Mark Melancon is a more highly skilled pitcher. His K-rate is better, he generates a significantly higher ground ball rate (his 2.64 GB/FB ratio last season is better than what you get when you combined Aceves’ marks the past two years – 2.52), and Melancon is the one who has experience working the 9th inning (20 saves last year for the Astros). Please heed my warning an avoid going all in on Aceves. If you do, the odds say that you will likely regret it.

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching

Today I’m just going to fly all over the place and randomly hit on some numbers that speak to me from the 2011 season. You know me, I’m random as all hell anyway, so this may not be any different than normal despite the intro warning you of the impending zaniness. Special thanks goes to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool. Looking at my shelf I’ve got copies dating all the way back to 2001).

0 – The number of NL hurlers who received six runs of support per nine innings (the NL leader amongst qualifiers, 162 innings pitched, was Jaime Garcia at 5.92). Over in the Junior Circuit there were five guys who received at least six runs of support – Jon Lester (6.86), Ivan Nova (6.70), Max Scherzer (6.42), Rick Porcello (6.38) and Colby Lewis (6.15) . There was even one guy, Derek Holland, who was over seven runs of support per nine innings. My goodness, he was over seven and a half at 7.64 runs per nine innings, an ungodly number. Wins may not be so easy to come by for Holland in 2012, so keep that in mind on draft day.

.086 – The best batting average in baseball with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) for a pitcher. Nationals’ reliever extraordinaire Tyler Clippard was the owner of that mark. No other reliever had a mark under .125.

.228 – The OBP of leadoff batters last season against Justin Verlander, the lowest in baseball amongst hurlers who tossed at least 150 innings. Two others allowed less than a quarter of leadoff hitters to reach base in Cole Hamels (.247) and Jordan Zimmerman (.249).

6.1 – The major league leading inherited runner strand rate of the Royals’ Greg Holland. Only one other pitcher in baseball was able to post a mark in the single digits and that was Al Alburquerque’s mark of 9.7 percent. The NL leader was George Sherrill at 10.8 percent.

8 – The number of “tough loses” – defined as a Game Score above 50 when a loss was picked up – by Hiroki Kuroda, David Price and James Shields (there will be more on Game Scores below). That was the highest mark in baseball. At the other end of the spectrum we have “cheap wins,” those outings with a Game Score under 50 while a win was picked up. The leader in that dubious category was Brad Penny with six, one more than the mark of five by John Lackey.

53.1 – The percentage of pitches that were in the strike zone from Cliff Lee, the highest mark in baseball. The only other pitcher who hit the mark more than 50 percent of the time was an unlikely source – knuckleballer R.A. Dickey of the Mets at 51.0 percent.

96 – The best pitched game in baseball last year was Chris Capuano’s effort on the 26th of August if you believe in Game Scores (an invention of Bill James that takes into account everything that a pitcher does on the hill). In that effort Capuano pitched nine shutout innings, allowed just two hits, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out 13 (for more on Capuano see his Player Profile). Ervin Santana’s no-hitter on July 27th gave him a score of 94 while Justin Verlander’s no-hitter from May 7th resulted in a score of 90.

98.0 – The average fastball speed last season of the major league leader (minimum 50 innings pitched). If I gave you 37 guesses I doubt you’d settle on the right name. The most obvious name is Aroldis Chapman, but he came in second at 97.9 mph. The leader was actually the Nationals’ Henry Rodriguez. Chapman did lead baseball with 158 pitches of at least 100 mph, 31 more than Rodriguez.

133 – The most pitches thrown in a game last season by Tim Lincecum. There were two other games over 130-pitches as team continue to monitor pitch counts very closely – Chris Carpenter (132), Roy Halladay (130).

By Ray Flowers