Operation Zero: The 2013 Hall of Fame Class

I’ve resisted writing about the 2013 MLB Hall of Fame candidates up until this point. Before detailing why it is insane that no players were elected to the Hall of Fame this year, I thought I would simply cut and past some of my tweets from the BaseballGuys’ Twitter feed over the past few days.

So hypocritical – people are busted weekly in NFL for steroids, no one cares. Merriman made the Pro Bowl year he got popped.

We have the Mitchell Report and what else? There’s no way to know what someone did 15 years ago.

Everyone can think what they want, I just think it’s extremely cynical just to assume everyone who is good is guilty.

Did some players use drugs to enhance their performance? Absolutely they did. Do we know everyone who did/didn’t? There is no way to know.

We have to judge players against others in their era. I’m so sick of Everyone accusing Every player of cheating w/o proof.

My point is that we have NO idea who used PEDs and who didn’t. In USA you’re innocent until PROVEN guilty.

Players in the 1970′s all used “greenies” – do we then say everyone in the 70′s is a cheater and should be downgraded?

Can’t we just say the era is tainted and move on? This PED stuff is soooo played out.

Newsflash people – players have cheated since the game was invented.

And this from Dustin Swedelson, a producer at SiriusXM (@dustinswedelson)

Remember when the writers who vote for baseball HOF’s jobs mattered again because of the steroid era? Didn’t hear them investigate then

Here’s my bottom line. We don’t know who did PED’s. We will never know. Baseball needs to decide how it will handle this. (A) We say everyone who played baseball for 15 years can’t be inducted into Cooperstown. (B) We admit that players cheated, compare them against their contemporaries, and judge them based upon their on the field merits. It’s really as simple as that folks. Without evidence, EVIDENCE, we can’t choose to exclude or include this person or that person because of a feeling. Well people can, but it’s grossly misguided and absolutely nonsensical for people to do so. So stop the madness folks. Decide everyone is out or everyone will be judged based on their performance. Short of irrefutable proof that a player cheated it’s an assault on common sense to exclude players simply because you have a “feeling” they cheated. Preposterous.

Here are the actual results of the 2013 vote.

Here are my thoughts on all the players who received at least 10 percent of the 2013 vote.

Craig Biggio (68.2 percent – 75 percent is needed for election): One of the scrappiest player of the last 30 years, Biggio came up as a catcher, won four Gold Gloves at second base, and then moved to the outfield later in his career. Other than a guy like Pete Rose, who has done that at the level of Biggio? Craig is 15th all-time in runs scored, 21st in hits (3,060) and fifth in doubles. Heck, he even went deep 291 times in his career. He should be enshrined.

Jack Morris (67.7 percent): His support continues to grow, but it’s revisionist history. The guy may have thrown a ton of innings and come up big in some big games, but my HOF has no place for a pitcher who never led the league in WHIP or ERA, and only once led his league in strikeouts (232 in 1983). Heck, he was never even the runner up for the Cy Young Award.

Jeff Bagwell (59.6 percent): My thoughts can be found in The Case for Bagwell.

Mike Piazza (57.8 percent): How in the world can the greatest hitting catcher of all-time not be in the HOF? From 1993-2002 an average Pizza season was a .322 average, 35 homers, 107 RBIs, 85 runs scored and an OPS of .969. How many elite level players ever have a season that good once? – and he did it for a decade. While catching.

Tim Raines (52.2 percent): A travesty he’s not been elected. See HOF: Tim Raines.

Lee Smith (47.8 percent): I gave my thoughts on closers in What is a HOF Closer? The 478 saves are amazing, and his longevity is impressive (13-straight years with at least 25 saves from 1983-95). I’m not overly impressive by guys that throw one inning though. I’m even less impressed by a guys save total as saves are a result of opportunity (we all know some teams use their “better” pitcher in a setup role). A 8.73 K/9, 2.57 K/BB, 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP just don’t do it for me.

Curt Schilling (38.8 percent): He was dominant in the post-season going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and that’s great, but someone shouldn’t be in or out based on 133.1 playoff innings. Won “only” 216 games but had a solid .597 winning percentage, and for his career his ERA+ was 127 meaning his 3.46 raw ERA was 27 percent better than the league average, an impressive number. He also struck better than 8.5 batters per nine, and for his career his 4.38 K/BB ratio is elite (it’s the best ever for a pitcher who threw 3,000 innings). He’s in – barely.

Roger Clemens (37.6 percent): One of the 10 greatest pitchers of all-time if you judge base on the numbers. An MVP award, seven Cy Young’s, 9th all-time in wins, 3rd in strikeouts and his ERA+ was 143, forty three percent better than the league average (his raw ERA was 3.12, his WHIP 1.17). The case against him is certainly there, but I’m still putting him in.

Barry Bonds (36.2 percent): There may be no more conclusive case about PED use for a player than the case with Bonds. Fourteen All-Star games, eight Gold Gloves, seven MVP awards – separated by eight years (his last of the ‘first’ cycle was in 1993 and his first in the ‘second’ cycle was 2001). First all-time in homers, 3rd in runs, 4th in RBIs, 6th in OBP, 6th in SLG and 4th in OPS. Oh yeah, he also stole 514 bags. One of the three greatest offensive forces the game ever saw. He’s out, and it’s a shame, but honestly, this call is more an indictment of baseball than Bonds.

Edgar Martinez (35.9 percent): See the argument in Is There Room for a DH?

Alan Trammell (33.6 percent): A really good player who had four Gold Gloves and six All-Star games nods. Still, he only finished as a top-5 MVP vote getter once, only had two 20 homer seasons, only one 100 RBI effort and just three seasons of more than 85 runs scored. Really good, but the Hall of Fame is for great – even if he was a very good fielder.

Larry Walker (21.6 percent): My best guess is that he will never be voted in, not because of PED use, but because people hold Coors Field, pre-humidor, against him. He finished his career with more homers than Joe DiMaggio (383 to 361), had more RBIs than Roberto Clemente (1,311 to 1,305), had more runs scored than Barry Larkin (1,355 to 1,329), a better batting average than Manny Ramirez (.313 to .312) and a better OPS than than all but 15 other men who played the game (.965). He’s also the only man since 1930 to have three straight seasons of hitting .360 (1997-99). Based upon the numbers he’s gotta be in, but with only a handful of huge run producing seasons, only four 140 games seasons, and the Coors Field effect, he’s as close as you can get for me without being included.

Fred McGriff (20.7 percent): See the discussion Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

Dale Murphy (18.6 percent): My favorite player as a kid, and even better than his work on the field is the fact that he is an amazing human being who never once had a hint of scandal. From 1980-89 here are Murphy’s ranks among all players: 2nd in extra base hits, 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs and 4th in runs. He also won 2 MVPs, was named to the All-Star team seven times and he won five Gold Gloves. One other plus. In 1980 Murphy was catcher eligible in fantasy baseball (27 games at C in ’79). He went .281-33-89-98-9. Just barely outside without a key to the door. He will have to hope the Veteran’s Committee votes him in as his 15 years on the regular ballot are up.

Mark McGwire (16.9 percent): An admitted cheater. From 1987 through his final year in the big leagues (2001), here is how McGwire ranked in a myriad of categories for that 15-year stretch: McGwire hit 580 homers, the most in baseball (Barry Bonds had 551). McGwire had 1,405 RBI, third most in baseball (Bonds had 1,494). McGwire had a .590 SLG, the third best mark in baseball (Bonds and Manny Ramirez led the way at .594). McGwire had a .985 OPS, fourth in baseball (Bonds at 1.017). I’ll leave him out since he admitted cheating, but even so, I’m inclined to cast my vote in favor of his election given his work on the field. Being honest actually works against McGwire… does that seem right to you?

Don Mattingly (13.2 percent): Mattingly had a very short peak as an elite hitter (before his back went bad), but from ’84-’89 here are his big league rankings: 3rd in AVG, 1st in 2B, 1st in EBH, 1st in RBI, 6th HR, 5th OPS. Mattingly also won nine Gold Gloves for his work at first base. A great player but he’s on the outside looking in cause his elite performance didn’t last long enough.

Sammy Sosa (12.5 percent): Everyone “knows” he cheated, but unlike McGwire he never admitted it (famously Sosa acted like he couldn’t speak English when he was called in front of Congress). From 1994-2003 here is what an “average” Sosa season looked like: .290-47-122-104-13 with a .958 OPS. Since we don’t have “proof” that he cheated, he goes in on my ballot. Remember, I’m not voting people out because we “know” a guy was dirty.

Finally, two articles.

A very informative piece from the NY Times entitled Hall of Fame Has Always Made Room for Infamy.

Jayson Stark’s Take on what the HOF has become.

By Ray Flowers

An Overlooked Star

Magglio Ordonez broke his ankle yet again and is done for the postseason as a result (the good news for the Tigers is that Delmon Young will try to play through his oblique issue). There are numerous reports that Mags might decided to hang up his spikes after dealing with constant pain in the ankle for the majority of the season (it appears that he will at least confer with doctors on Monday before making a decision about his future). If he retires, he’ll leave behind one of the better careers that few people truly respect. Let’s examine.

Many don’t know it, but Ordonez owns a career batting average of .309. From 1997-2011, the span of his career, only 13 other men who had at least 3,000 plate appearances in that time had a better batting average. If we up that total to 5,000 plate appearances he’s moves up to 10th on the list.

Never a huge power bat, Ordonez nonetheless still hit at least 29 homers in 5-straight years (1999-2003), reached the 20 homer plateau eight times, and averaged 26 long balls per 162 games played for his career.

A rather prolific run producer, Ordonez has seven seasons of at least 150 games played and each of those seven years he knocked in at least 99 runs. His total of 1,236 RBI from 1997-2011 was the 16th best total in the game.

Put all that together and for his career Ordonez produced a pace of .309-26-108 with 94 runs scored per 162 games. That’s pretty darn good is it not? Furthermore, do you know how many players hit .300 with 275 homers, 1,200 RBI and 1,000 runs from 1997-2011? The answer is six men:

Vladimir Guerrero
Chipper Jones
Todd Helton
Manny Ramirez
Albert Pujols
Magglio Ordonez

Some more Mags facts.

He was named to six All-Star teams.

He won three Silver Slugger awards.
He’s in the top-120 in the history of baseball in batting average (.309 is 116th), SLG (.502 is 91st) an OPS (.871 is 113th).

I’m not saying anything crazy like he should one day be elected to the Hall of Fame one day, but I do think that he is one of those players who history might end up being more kind to with a little bit of distance and perspective. If he had played in another era, perhaps the 1970′s and 80′s, his numbers would have looked much more impressive. Instead, he played during the juiced ball, and juiced player era, which renders his 26 homers per 162 game pace as a less than impressive mark. However, if you need any reminder as to why he was such a good overall hitter just look back up and re-read group list of six men that he belongs to – that should help to bring you around to the realization that he was one hell of a hitter during his career.

Oh, and for those of you wondering, the high school reunion on the weekend went very well. Got to catch up with a few of the old gang, pulled back on a few Long Island’s, and was able to relieve some of my past glory (I felt like Al Bundy from Married with Children). I also caught up with my best gal friend from high school, and that was a blast. I know what you’re all thinking – your single Ray, go for it. She’s happily married so that’s a no go. Anyway, you know I already have the neighbor’s wife around if I want to go to hell for being the guy that breaks up marriages.

By Ray Flowers

Quietly Making History

Seven.

That’s the number of The Wonders of the World.

It’s also the number Mickey Mantle wore on his back.

There are seven days in a week.

Seven also happens to be the number of men who have hit 600 homers in their career.

That number will soon turn to eight.

762 – Barry Bonds

755 – Hank Aaron

714 – Babe Ruth

660 – Willie Mays

630 – Ken Griffey Jr.

626 – Alex Rodriguez

609 – Sammy Sosa

Jim Thome continues his march toward history, albeit with little of the fanfare that he deserves. Sitting on 596 home runs, Thome is about to join the elite power hitters who ever played the game. Yet no one seems to care. I find that completely vexing if for no other reason than the club is so exclusive. Add in the fact that Bonds, A-Roid and Sosa have huge clouds hanging over their heads as a results of the PED scandal, and it could legitimately be argued that only four men truly deserve to be in the group. The fifth would be Thome (there have long been whispers about Thome, but he’s never failed a test, nor is there a massive amount of evidence pointing to his guilt like there is with Bonds.
A few Thome facts…

He has hit at least 20 homers 16 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 30 homers 12 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 40 homers six times, the 5^th highest total in league history.

He has scored 100 runs eight times.

He has drive in 100 runs nine times.

He has scored more than 1,500 runs, and knocked in more than 1,600.

He’s walked more than 1,700 times in his career putting him in the top-10 all-time.

Face it, Thome has been a very good player for a very long period of time. He was never a good fielder, he lost his glove about a decade ago, but the man is one of the best in the history of the game at taking a walk and going deep. For that, he should get a lot more credit than he has received for a career that rightly should place him in the Hall of Fame one day.

And finally, how about Hideki Matsui? He recently joined the 500-HR club. The majority of his bombs were hit in Japan (332), but Matsui still became the first player to reach the total 500 homer total in a career split between Japan and the States. Congrats

By Ray Flowers

In the Bowls of Hell

I’m in Washington DC this week, before I saunter on over to St. Louis mid week. It’s a ton of fun getting a chance to spend some quality time with the great folks I work with at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. To the last person, a class act group. But I gotta tell ya, this heat is killing a kid. As a California born and raised boy, 90 is pushing the limits of my heat tolerance. As you are all likely aware, there is a historic heat wave hitting the east coast right now. The other night at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and it’s a spectacular place to view a ball game, it was 102 degrees at first pitch. I know your thinking that’s super hot for a day game, but the problem is it was 102 degrees at 7:05 PM. It’s almost too hot to live. Thank goodness there were copious amounts of beer available because what’s better when it’s hot than continuing to dehydrate yourself with booze?

This past weekend saw the HOF induction of Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar take place. While I have some doubt about the efficacy of Blyleven, there is no doubt whatsoever that Alomar was worthy of induction, a fact that I covered in The 2011 Hall of Fame Class. If you ask me, Alomar is one of the five greatest second basemen of all time so I can’t understand why he wasn’t inducted in his first year of eligibility. I’ve also written a few other pieces about the HOF, and two of them are What is a HOF Closer?, and Innocent Until Proven Guilty if you have some time to kill.

Now on to a Mailbag question…

I’ve been holding onto Desmond Jennings and now I can finally get him in my lineup. I need someone to sit between Coco Crisp, Delmon Young, Eduardo Nunez and Magglio Ordonez. Weekly lineup. Steals is not an issue for me, but in a race for R, RBI, HR still.
— Vinny

Desmond Jennings is an elite talent that I profiled back in The Prospect Trinity (the piece also discussed Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, the other two arms of the Trinity). Jennings has taken forever to get to the big league level. The Rays were reluctant to start his arbitration clock early, and then he suffered an injury down on the farm. However, he’s making up for lost time rather quickly as he he killed it since being called up to The Show going 4-for-6 with two runs and two steals making him pretty much a must add in all formats.

Looking at your group, here’s what I would suggest doing.

Magglio Ordonez is hitting .322 in July. He still isn’t showing any power, and he has no speed, but his bat should play as a 5th outfielder type in mixed leagues as long as he’s healthy.

Eduardo Nunez is hitting .333 in July, and he has stolen four bases each of the past three months. However, you say speed isn’t a big need for you which mitigates the main value add of Nunez.

Delmon Young is hitting over .300 his last 34 games, but he has only two homers and 26 RBI in over 250 at-bats.

Coco Crisp has only one steal in his last 10 games, but he’s up to 27 thefts on the year and it’s pretty hard to say adios to production like that.

I’d add Jennings and let go Mr. Nunez if you have your infield covered. If you have outfield depth, there’s really no reason to keep the limited upside of Ordonez.

By Ray Flowers

What is a HOF Closer?

We’d all like to think we could recognize greatness when we see it. When Albert Pujols unleashes his beautifully timed swing with an exquisite follow-through, you know you are witnessing greatness. When Roy Halladay is baffling hitters with pitches from all angles at all speeds going in all directions, you know you are witnessing greatness. But how do you know you are witnessing greatness when we are talking about relief pitchers who only toss an inning per outing?

This question will continue to be raised in the coming years, especially when it comes to Hall of Fame balloting as the voters try to place closers into historical context given that they have truly been a part of the landscape, at least in their current role, for barely 25 years. Is there a number of saves that guarantees election to the Hall of Fame like 300 wins for a pitcher and 3,000 hits for a batter? To this point in the voting process there is no agreed upon number for greatness. Lee Smith, who is third all-time with 478 saves, received only 45.3 percent of the vote in the latest go round (you need 75 percent to be inducted into the Hall). John Franco, who is 4th on the saves list with 424, was named only 27 ballots this year falling below five percent of the vote at 4.6 percent meaning he will no longer be eligible to be voted on during balloting. Apparently, 400 saves doesn’t guarantee you entry to the Hall.

But what about 500 saves? There are currently only two men in that club and one is Mariano Rivera with 559 saves. Will he make the Hall of Fame? Is that the dumbest question I have ever posed on BaseballGuys.com?

What about the other man with at least 500 saves, who is also the only man in history with 600 – Trevor Hoffman – who just announced his retirement from the game? Of course he will make the Hall of Fame, wont he? I say if he doesn’t get elected on the first ballot then the voters are detached from reality. Whatever you think of the save – and frankly it’s not a very good way to judge a pitchers effectiveness – the fact of the matter is that the game is run in order to get a team’s closer into the game in the 9th inning to seal a victory. Given that every team in the game follows this formula, how could you possibly not reward the men that were the best at what they do?

Hoffman led the league in saves, shockingly, only twice (53 in 1998 and 46 in 2006), in his storied career. Still, he is the all-time leader both in saves and games finished (856). Hoffman was also in the top-7 in saves 15 times in 16 seasons, only missing out in 2003 when injury limited him to nine innings. Moreover, Hoffman also had stretches of eight and six years in a row with 30-saves – the run of eight from 1995-2002 is tied with Rivera (2003-10) for the longest stretch in history. That means Hoffman racked up 14 seasons of 30 saves, the most in the history of the game (Rivera has 13 such seasons).

More than just a saves machine, Hoffman and his change-up posted an ERA of 2.87 for his career, 49.1 percent better than the league average of 4.28. Hoffman also registered a stupendous WHIP of 1.06, a K/9 mark of 9.36, and a K.BB ratio of 3.69. All of those numbers, every single one of them, speaks to Hoffman’s HOF credentials.

Obviously Hoffman did his job, arguably, as well as any man who ever played the game. However, he just doesn’t have the mystic of Mariano Rivera who not only pitches for the Yankees but somehow has gotten batters our for all of these years with just a single pitch. Not only that, Rivera has been the greatest postseason pitcher the game has ever seen; Rivera is 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.71 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over 139.2 innings whereas Hoffman made just 12 postseason appearances that included a blown save in his only World Series. Hoffman spent virtually his entire career on the West Coast meaning many people may have actually seen him pitch only a handful of times, and that certainly wont help his candidacy. He also toiled away on a second division club for the majority of his career, and his success was predicated on a devastating change-up that sure didn’t impress many who were watching the game from the grandstand. All Hoffman did, day after day, was get people out.

Will that be good enough for the Hall of Fame even if those who watched him pitch never used the word “greatness” to describe his work? Time will tell, but if I had a ballot I would put a check mark next to Trevor Hoffman’s name without hesitation – he was the best to ever fill the role of closer in the history of the National League.

By Ray Flowers

The 2011 Hall of Fame Class

The Hall of Fame vote for 2011 was released today, and unsurprisingly there were two names listed highlighted by the the name of Roberto Alomar, a year after he was denied entry (to all the voters who withheld their vote for Alomar because of the spitting incident, get off your flipping high horse. I’m sure none of you ever did something of questionable moral value). You can read my reasons for having not a scintilla of doubt about the inclusion of Alomar in the Hall of Fame in Who am I? The other player selected was Bert Blyleven who was finally chosen for the Hall in his 14th year on the ballot. Here are the results of the top-5 from this year’s balloting (a player needs to be named on 75% of the ballots to be awarded a spot in the Hall).

Roberto Alomar: 90.0%
Bert Blyleven: 79.7%
Barry Larkin: 62.1%
Jack Morris: 53.5%
Lee Smith: 45.3%

* For the complete results you can visit The Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Two of my personal favorites failed to reach 45 percent of the votes in Jeff Bagwell (41.7%) and Tim Raines (37.5%). You can find my reasons for supporting Bagwell in HOF: The Case for Bagwell. As for Raines, I wrote a report titled simply HOF: Tim Raines. However, I’ve never written much about Blyleven, so I thought I would share some thoughts on his election. Some facts on Blyleven.

He was named to three All-Star teams.
He won a Cy Young Award.
He won 133 games in his first 10 seasons.
He owns a career winning percentage of .542.
He was top-10 in complete games eight times including four seasons in which he led the league.
He has an ERA+ mark of 1.14 (14 percent better than the league average).

Are you ready to have your mind blown like the first time you saw The Sixth Sense? Those aren’t numbers that belong to Bert Blyleven, they belong to Barry Zito. I’ll give you a moment to comprehend what we are working our way up to here by giving you Blyleven’s real numbers.

Blyleven was named to two All-Star games, one less than Zito.
Blyleven never won a Cy Young Award (he was 3rd in 1984-85).
Blyleven won 148 games his first 10 years, an average of 1.5 wins a year more than Zito.
Blyleven owns a career winning percentage of .534, .008 less than Zito.
Blyleven was top-10 in complete games 12 times but led the league only once.
Blyleven has an ERA+ mark of 118, slightly better than Zito’s 114 mark.

I think my point should be evident, should it not? I’m not saying Barry Zito should be in the Hall of Fame, but I think it’s rather poignant to think that Barry Zito has been the equal of Blyleven for the first 10 seasons of his career. So I ask, is there anyone out there that thinks Zito will one day deserve to be in the Hall of Fame even if he has another 10 years like his first 10? I mean really, Bert Blyleven was inducted into the Hall of Fame for being a very good pitcher for an awfully long period of time, but when did the Hall of Fame became the domain of very good ball players?

Let me hit on Jack Morris before I leave you today. Let’s compare Morris to Blyleven in some major categories and see if there are real differences between the two.

Blyleven: Two All-Star games
J.Morris: Five All-Star games

Blyleven: 0.45 career shares in Cy Young voting
J.Morris: 0.73 career shares in Cy Young voting

Blyleven: 287 wins, top-10 in wins six times
J.Morris: 254 wins, top-10 in wins 12 times

Blyleven: .534 winning percentage, ERA+ of 118
J.Morris: .577 winning percentage, ERA+ of 105

Blyleven: Hall of Fame Monitor (120), Hall of Fame Standards (50)
J.Morris: Hall of Fame Monitor (122), Hall of Fame Standards (39)

Maybe it’s just me, but I certainly don’t see a hell of a lot of difference between those two other than the fact that Blyleven does have a sizable strikeout lead (6.7 K/9 to 5.8 K/9). My point is that maybe all those Morris supporters will just have to remain patient as it appears that, with time, the voting body will eventually install him in the Hall of Fame.

ADDENDUM

I love the passionate response by everyone below in the Comments section (below). Love it. Wish everyone would share their thoughts more to make things interesting. My point was to cause everyone to get engaged with the topic, and they certainly did.

Let me be clear.

1- Zito is NOT a Hall of Fame pitcher. Period.

2- Zito is NOT as good as Blyleven when you take into count the overall performance of Blyleven over the course of 22 years.

I was merely stating that Zito had more Cy Young’s and All-Star appearances, a better winning percentage, a better K/9 mark and was tougher to get a hit off of than Blyleven. Those are facts, and you can read whatever you would like into them, but I was just pointing out that Blyleven’s efforts weren’t vastly different in many respects. I never said Zito was a better pitcher.

As for Blyleven’s accomplishments, they are historically substantial in terms of his overall workload which was immense (nearly 5,000 innings). The question continues to be – should we reward durability, or should the Hall of Fame be for the best players?

Think of it. Blyleven NEVER led the league in wins or ERA. He only led the league in strikeouts once and only once did he lead in WHIP. In addition, despite all his innings, he only led the league in that category twice. If I add that all up, I don’t know if that’s good enough for the Hall of Fame.

By Ray Flowers

Two All-Time Greats?

In today’s article I will discuss two of the best performers that the game has seen over the last 20 years. One could potentially be hanging up his spikes while the other is hoping to have his name called out in a couple of days when the Hall of Fame voting results are announced.

The Yankees Are in Trouble

Reports continue to trickle out that Andy Pettitte is legitimately leaning toward retirement (an announcement could even come within the next few days). This isn’t a salary push or anything like that, it’s simply a decision that Pettitte needs to make for himself and his family as he has apparently grown a bit weary of the toll the game has taken on his body. Here are the facts.

(1) He doesn’t need the money having made more than $125 million in his career.

(2) His place in history is secure. Pettitte has been one of the finest postseason pitchers of modern times, just take a look at the numbers: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 173 Ks over 263 innings pitched. As for his regular season work, he’s also been one of the best left-handed pitchers of recent times. Not just that, he profiles quite well amongst all lefties who have ever pitched as his total of 240 victories is tied for 12th all time with Herb Pennock and Frank Tanana. Pettitte also has a winning percentage of .635 in his career which is the 9th best mark of any left-handed pitcher in the history of baseball (min. 1,500 innings pitched).

(3) He was darn good last season, even at 38 years of age, as he went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Unfortunately he was limited to 129 innings, his lowest total of his 16 season career other than his injury plagued 2004 season. Given the struggles to stay healthy last season, it just sounds like Pettitte has had enough.

(4) If he doesn’t come back, as seems quite likely at this point, the Yankees are in big, big trouble. Here would be their projected rotation, sans Pettitte, if the season started today.

CC Sabathia: A worthy #1.

A.J. Burnett: Coming off his worst season (5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).

Phil Hughes: Won 18 games but had a 4.90 ERA after the break and has only one season of starting in
bigs.

Ivan Nova: He’s appeared in all of 10 big league games.

Sergio Mitre: Made only three starts last season and owns terrible career ratios (5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).

If you are a Yankees’ fan it’s time to pray to whomever you pray to because you desperately need Andy Pettitte to put off retirement for another year.

The Historical Place of the DH

Almost a year ago to the day I wrote a piece about Edgar Martinez and his Hall of Fame candidacy entitled Is There Room for a DH? In that piece I laid out my thoughts about the case of a man who was a Hall of Fame worthy performer, save for two significant points. (1) Martinez wasn’t given a full-time role with the Mariners until he was 27 years old, so some of his counting numbers just aren’t that impressive when placed in a historical context (he had only 309 homers, one less than Jay Buhner and 1,261 RBI, 10 less than Tino Martinez). (2) No full-time designated hitter has ever been elected to the Hall of Fame (Martinez played the field in less than 30 percent of his career games). Both points, on their own, could be enough to keep Edgar from ever being enshrined in the halls of Cooperstown.

At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account today there was some back and forth about the fact that Martinez deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. After all, DH is a position, to which I argued it’s a one way position. Martinez was a hitter, but would anyone call him a player? In my mind that means he will have a very difficult time convincing the voting body that he deserves baseball’s ultimate honor. Conversely, it can be argued that pitchers only do one thing – pitch – and no one has any complaints about hurlers making the Hall so perhaps people will be willing to overlook the fact that Martinez played most of his career without even owning a glove. In the end I wish that baseball would do the right thing and eliminate the whole debate by returning the game to its roots by riding itself of the abomination that is the designated hitter.

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By Ray Flowers

Innocent Until Proven Guilty

I don’t normally climb to the top of my ivory tower and simply bloviate, but today I’m going to do just that.

I’m getting some blow-back from people on Twitter since I posted my piece HOF: The Case for Bagwell. The reason being that there seems to be an undercurrent that Bagwell is unworthy of inclusion in the Hall of Fame because he did steroids. There are quite a few reasons that paint such a view as asinine.

(1) Bagwell never failed a drug test and was never caught purchasing drugs.

(2) Just because a guy is muscular is no reason to simply assume that he is doing Performance Enhancing Drugs (PED’s). In fact, Bagwell’s thoughts on the matter can be found in Jeff Bagwell tires of steroids talk. Bagwell himself admits that he got too big from trying to make the cover of Muscle and Fitness magazine. Instead of being smart and training like a baseball player should, he just focused on strength and bulk. Bagwell also points out that he was an obsessive weight lifter who literally spent hours in the gym every day.

(3) People are pointing to his offensive explosion in 1994 as some proof of steroid use. I got news for you folks, sometimes people just have out of nowhere performances, and it has nothing to do with PED use. See Jose Bautista in 2010 for a recent example if you have already forgotten. Speaking of Bautista, my Breaking Down piece lists all of the reasons that you should avoid counting on Bautista as a building block for 2011.

(4) Some have pointed out that Bagwell flamed out at the end of his career, to which I respond so what? Bagwell’s weightlifting effectively ruined his shoulder to the point that it was almost impossible for him to throw the ball across the infield. He simply couldn’t swing the bat at the end of his career. Secondly, he retired at 37 years of age. Back in the day almost every player was done, or nearly done, by that age. It’s only recently that players have been able to sustain success into their late 30′s.

Do I think that Bagwell did steroids? No I don’t, but honestly, that’s besides the point. The fact is that he never failed a test, so unless he comes out and admits that he took PED’s then we must presume his innocence (we still do that in the United States right? You know, the whole presumed innocent until proven guilty thing that is a foundational building block of our country).

I find it laughably pathetic that there is such rampant hypocrisy in sports.

Chargers’ LB Shawne Merriman was suspended for steroid use in 2006. That same season he was elected to the NFL Pro Bowl. Where is the outrage for that?

Michael Vick, a convicted felon for torturing and murdering dogs, has been welcomed back to the NFL with open arms to make gazillions of dollars and to be adored by millions for his football talents despite the fact that he is a deplorable human being. He was named to the Pro Bowl the other day.

But what do we do in the world of baseball? We cast baseless aspersions and impugn people’s character and reputation merely on supposition. That sickens me. Any player who has been tied to PED use in the public is roundly scorned, derided, and ultimately their place in history is tarnished to the point that their performance on the field is almost completely ignored – even though there is no proof that they did anything illegal.

Did, and do, baseball players use PED’s? With 100 percent certainty I can agree with that statement. Which players took PED’s? I have no idea, and despite what you think, neither do you. If we don’t know who took them how can we blame anyone? Do we just say that any player who suited up from 1990′s and first decade of the 20th century should be banned from the Hall of Fame?

I know that hypocrisy knows no bounds, but there will be none of it at BaseballGuys.com. Barring incontrovertible proof that would result in a conviction in a court of law, I’m going to go with the principles instilled by our Founding Fathers that all men, and women, are innocent until proven guilty.

HOF: The Case for Bagwell

With the Hall of Fame vote coming up (the results will be released on January 6th), I thought it might be nice to link to the pieces I wrote last year regarding a handful of players that were up for consideration but who failed to be enshrined. Here are those links.

Edgar Martinez – Is There Room for a DH?
HOF – Tim Raines .
Is McGriff Hall Worthy ?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood ?
HOF: Who am I ?

In addition, here is my recap on how the voting actually turned out last year in HOF: What Should Have Been.

As for the vote this year, there seems to be growing support for the candidacy of Jeff Bagwell. Should be be enshrined in the Hall of Fame?

PRO

(1) Bagwell spent his entire 15 year career with the Astros. I know this really doesn’t matter, but in the world of money grubbing by players you have to tip your hat to Bagwell for this accomplishment of staying with one club.

(2) He was the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, and in 1994 he was named NL MVP. He also finished in the top-10 in MVP voting five times on his way to 2.89 Career MVP Shares, the 35th highest mark in league history.

(3) He was named to four All-Star teams.

(4) He had 1,529 RBI – 45th all-time – and he also scored 1,517 runs, good for 62nd all-time. No player eligible for the Hall of Fame with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI isn’t in the Hall.

(5) He finished his career with a .408 OBP, the 40th best mark ever.

(6) He finished his career with a .540 SLG, the 35th best mark ever.

(7) He finished his career with a .948 OPS, the 21st best mark ever. This is a simply stupendous accomplishment for a guy who spent so much of his career hitting in the Astrodome.

(8) Bagwell led the league in runs three times – with a high of 152. In fact, he scored 143 and 152 runs in 1999-2000, and amongst first basemen only he and Lou Gehrig ever had back-to-back seasons of 140+ runs in the history of baseball.

(9) Bagwell hit .297 with 449 homers, 1,529 RBI, 1,517 runs and an OPS of .948. In the history of baseball, only 10 men have reached each of those totals in their career, and oh what a list it is: Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Mel Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams and Mr. Bagwell.

CON

(1) He spent his entire career with the Astros. Did anyone notice how great he was since they never saw him play in person or on television?

(2) The strike in 1994 ruined what was shaping up to be a historic season. Bagwell hit .368 with 39 homers, 116 RBI and 104 runs scored… in 110 games. Along the way he led the league in RBI and runs, not to mention SLG (.750) and OPS (1.201). If he had kept that pace up over 160 games he would have produced a line of .368-57-169 with 151 runs scored. If he had produced a season for the ages like that, would more people have taken notice of him?

(3) Despite his tremendous work, other than 1994, was he ever even considered the best first baseman in baseball with players like Fred McGriff, Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton around?

VERDICT

Bagwell should be a lock. In addition to being a tremendous person and teammate, he was also a dynamic player. His career totals stack up well against pretty much any man who ever played first base, and it’s not his fault there were so many tremendous hitting first basemen in the game when he played. Bagwell was also widely regarded as one of the best base runners in baseball in his career, even with less than scintillating speed, and that reputation should augment the glowing numbers. The Hall of Fame candidacy of many players has been exaggerated of late, but if Mr. Bagwell is enshrined the voting body will be making a decision that will undoubtedly stand the test of time.

By Ray Flowers

The HOF and Ubaldo Jimenez

On Sunday Andre Dawson was officially inducted into the Hall of Fame. An eight time All-Star who is one of only three men in big league history to hit 400 homers while also stealing at least 300 bases (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays are the others), Dawson also has one of the worst OBP (.323) of any player in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it’s the worst mark of any outfielder enshrined at Cooperstown, .020 points below the .343 mark of Lou Brock. Should Dawson have been elected to the HOF? I tackled that very question in The Case of Andre Dawson. If that piece doesn’t cause you some pause about whether or not the athletic outfielder should have been enshrined, perhaps Dawson vs. Alomar will prove to you, once an for all, that not only does Roberto Alomar deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but that Dawson’s credentials might be a little thin.

I actually wrote up a series of piece on players who were eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, and here are those links:

Edgar Martinez – Is there Room for a DH?
HOF: Tim Raines.
Is McGriff Hall Worthy?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?
HOF: Who Am I?

Any here are my final thoughts where I discussed the 2010 voting results.

HOF: What Should Have Been.

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Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. There, I said it, and don’t for a second try and tell me you weren’t thinking the same thing. On June 7th, a mere eight starts ago, Ubaldo had a 0.93 ERA. Heck, on June 18th it was still 1.15. However, the past six outings haven’t looked anything like his first 14 trips to the hill. Here are the numbers:

7.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.73 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.68 K/BB

The ERA is horrific, the WHIP is terrible, and that walk rate is godawful leading to a decidedly sub par K/BB mark that is well below the big league average of 2.10.

So what happened? It’s called regression people, ever heard of it? Did you really drink so much of that Ubaldo Cool Aid that you actually thought he was going to challenge Bob Gibson’s NL ERA mark of 1.12? Come on now. Did you think he was gonna keep his ERA under 2.00 all year long? I got news for you, that’s only happened twice in baseball since the 21st century began (Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 mark in 2000 and Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 mark in 2005). Again, you kid right?

The truth is that Ubaldo is simply returning to the level of “dominance” instead of the “historic” pace that he flashed early on. He still has a 2.75 ERA, his WHIP is just 1.12, he has nearly a K per inning (120 in 134.1) and he is still 15-2. How rare is that combination? If he maintains that pace for 34 starts this season we’d be looking at something like 25 wins, 200 Ks and a 2.75 ERA. How many pitchers have reached all three of those levels since 2000? It’s a small group of — zero. If we go back to 1990 there still isn’t one member of the group. How about 1980? Still none. You have to go all the way back to to Ron Guidry in 1978 to find a pitcher who reach all three milestones (25-3, 1.74 ERA, 248 Ks).

The bottom line with Ubaldo is that you should cut the guy some slack. Still, I hope you listened when I suggested you sell high on the flamethrower from Colorado because that window for peak value in a trade has been closed completely.

By Ray Flowers