Player Profile: Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm‘s name likely elicits, let’s see, a yawn? Before you lock that thought into your head as to what your reaction should be when the Braves’ lefties name as mentioned remember this:

Maholm had a better ERA than Homer Bailey, Chris Capuano, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Ian Kennedy in 2012.

Maholm had a better WHIP than Ryan Vogelsong, A.J. Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Lance Lynn, Tommy Hanson and Tim Lincecum in 2012.

Maholm had more wins than Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Capuano, Roy Halladay, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley and Jeff Samardzija.

Do I have your attention yet?

Paul Maholm isn’t exciting, I will give you that. Even with all of the above data the fact of the matter is that Maholm won 13 games, had a 3.67 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but it’s not like they will lead to a fantasy championship. However, it should be noted that numbers like those, from a reserve round selection or a waiver-wire pick up, are special numbers. Are you better off spending $23 on Johnny Cueto or $3 on Paul Maholm on draft day? Obviously Cueto is a better pitcher and the one you need more to win a championship, but hopefully you see the point – Maholm is the better value add based on his draft day cost. If you can augment an expensive Cueto with a cheap as all get out Maholm, then you’ve got something. In terms of return on investment, Maholm was one of the best bargains in baseball in 2012. Can he be so again in 2013?

On the bump Maholm has been very consistent the past two seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings. In 2011 he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 innings. However, like many of the other hurlers I’ve been reviewing, it’s best to realize what Maholm is – he’s a rotation filler who won’t hurt you. Why do I say that? For some reason he can’t seem to consistently win games. Maholm owns a 66-84 career record, and even the past two years when he has pitched so well he’s gone 19-25. Wins-loses are of course a bad way to judge pitchers performances, I’m the first to admit that, but in the fantasy game they are one of the four categories that matter to starting hurlers. I should also point out that in four of the past five seasons, despite at least 26 starts each year (more than 30 in four of them), that Paul failed to reach double-digits in wins. For some reason he’s just not able to consistently post wins.

The next issue with Maholm is that he lacks a strikeout pitch. For his career Maholm owns a poor 5.71 K/9 mark, and that fact alone removes him from receiving my stamp of approval. Still, it is somewhat heartening to see that he’s coming off a career best mark of 6.67, though it should be noted that the mark is 0.61 better than ever before (back in 2008). Maholm isn’t going to turn into a league average K arm, just the way it is. Maholm does keep the walks in check, at least he has that going for him, with a BB/9 mark of 2.80 or lower in five of the past six years.

One thing that Maholm does well, very well, is induce grounders. It’s why he can be so effective without dominating hitters. Maholm’s GB-rate has been at least 49.9 percent every season of his career, and his worst GB/FB ratio for a season is a still impressive 1.69. Consequently he’s not exactly a homer magnet as his HR/9 mark has been under one each of the past five years.

Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around. He’s also a pitcher who could see his performance go down since he lacks elite skills, but not likely up. That’s why he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 6: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ryan Dempster (+14, $357K in DailyJoust salary)
Working around an injury, Dempster has taken the hill five times this year with spectacular results: 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and never allowing more than two runs in a start. He’s also posted a 3.60 K/BB ratio while striking out 36 batters in 35.1 innings. You really can’t pitch much better than he has to this point. The only negative is the anemic offensive support that he has received as he’s failed to win a game, again, despite only allowing more than one run one time (he allowed two runs to the Brewers). Shame on you Cubs.

Christian Friedrich (+77, $228K)
Was recalled to take the spot of Guillermo Moscoso in the Rockies rotation and he had a solid first start allowing two runs, only one earned, over six innings against the Padres. However, the start was against the Padres, and it was at Petco, so that makes profiling the effort difficult. This left hander has had a rough couple of years after once being regarded as one of the better lefty pitching prospects in the game. Last season he went 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA at Double-A, so it would be wise to be very wary of him turning into Lance Lynn anytime soon.

Jimmy Rollins (+11, $72K)
No player on the Phils has struggled worse than Rollins with Howard-Utley out of the mix. Hitting just .230 with one homer the only thing keeping Rollins afloat is his seven steals. For a guy with a putrid .275 OBP his 17 runs scored in 35 games isn’t bad, and it’s not like he’s going to be losing any playing time, but this has still been a painfully slow start to the year. Just a season removed from 16 homers, 30 steals and 87 runs scored, did Rollins get “old” overnight? I’m betting he didn’t.

Yovani Gallardo (+48, $243K)
After that shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (8 ER in 2.0 IP) Gallardo, as he always does, rebounded in his last two outings to allow a total of five runs while striking out 12 batters in 12 innings. In one of the odder starts to a season of any arm out there, if you remove his two starts against the Cardinals – 14 ERA in 5.2 innings – here are his numbers from his other five starts: 2.45 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP. Just don’t pitch him when he faces the Cards and you would appear to be fine.

Jake Westbrook (+52, $323K)
We’ve seen plenty of pitchers have their career revived while pitching in St. Louis, so maybe Westbrook is the next arm in that line to do so. His 1.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through six starts are special, especially for a guy with carer marks of 4.27 and 1.39. Only once in six starts has he failed to produce a quality start, and he wasn’t awful in that outing allowing four runs. Through 41 innings he has a solid 2.70 K/BB ratio, but it’s one full batter above his career rate, while his 5.93 K/9 mark is also a batter above his carer norm. Pitchers don’t usually post career bests in those numbers in their 12th big league season. Solid but unspectacular, he has nowhere to go but down from here.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Homer Bailey (-47, $162)
Blessed with a big arm, Bailey simply cannot form any type of consistency. A run of 4-straight quality starts was broken up by a stinker against the Brewers as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings. He’s also been taken deep six times in six starts helping to explain his 4.93 ERA. His current K/BB rate of 1.85 points to just how middling a performer he continues to be (over at Fleaflicker he is only owned in seven percent of leagues). It certainly doesn’t seem like his rotation spot is in serious jeopardy, but at some point the Reds are going to need to see some improvement, or at least some consistency.

Asdrubal Cabrera (-19, $96K)
Hitting .315 on the season would be a tremendous accomplishment for a guy who owns a .283 career mark. However, Cabrera was hitting .356 literally a week ago so he’s clearly slumped a wee bit. Asdrubal one one RBI in his last seven games, and he has just three homers and two steals on the season. Where is the guy that went 25/17 last year? He’s just where I said he would be in his Player Profile – he’s gone.

Ross Detwiler (-52, $247K)
Ross has made six starts, has failed to allow more than three runs in an outing, owns a 2.10 ERA an a 1.02 WHIP through 34.1 innings. It’s impossible to find any fault with his efforts so far this year. As I’ve said before he doesn’t have the underlying skills to support this hot start, but he is generating a ground ball rate of 54 percent with 6.55 K’s per nine, so maybe the landing will be a soft one even when the regression comes. So maybe he isn’t going to win the Cy Young award this season but he’s still had a wonderful start to the season.

Dan Haren (-80, $227K)
If his current owner is panicking after he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start, or because he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, now is the time to pounce. Haren is sporting a 7.33 K/9 mark, slightly better than last season, and he’s currently walking a mere 1.88 batters per nine innings (career 1.89). He’s also been saddled with a .323 BABIP which might continue, but at the same time he’s never had a mark above .311 for a season and owns a career mark of .290. I’m also pretty confident he won’t end the year with a 22.9 percent line drive rate which would be a career worst. Given time to normalize Haren should do just that.

Ian Kennedy (-36, $229K)
He was never going to match last season, so put that out of your head (see his Player Profile). Still, prior to giving up six runs in his last outing, Kennedy had a 3.23 ERA through six starts showing that’s he’s still darn likely to be a successful arm. Through seven outings Kennedy owns an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio and his GB/FB, HR/F and line drive rates are all pretty darn similar to last season, so just pass on from the bad outing the last time he took the hill and realize this is still one fine fantasy option.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 27, 2011

(1) Russell Branyan to steal playing time from Mark Trumbo?

(2) J.P. Arencebia to see a playing time boost.

(3) Homer Bailey – out with a shoulder issue.

(4) Phil Humber could be removed from the White Sox rotation.

(5) Is Carl Crawford finally back?

(6) Rockies shake it up. Release Jose Lopez, call up Eric Young Jr.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Photo by Steven Boyd

I’m continually asked a few questions over and over again.

What should my draft strategy be?
Which “sleepers” should I target late in drafts?
Which setup man will become a closer this season?
How can you give away such great information for free?
How is it possible that you’re still single?

I always have answers for those questions, at least the first four anyway, but there is a sixth question that I get all the time as well – which pitchers should I target on draft day after the top mound aces are off the board? That’s what I’m going to breakdown in this entry.

I’ve already touched on this topic previously, so I’ll quickly highlight those pieces before digging a bit deeper today.

The Strikeout: Relievers
This article breaks down the top relievers in 2010 based on K/9 marks.

The Strikeout: Starters
This article breaks down the top starters in 2010 based on K/9 marks while also delving a bit deeper by adding into the mix how a pitchers’ walk rate also needs to be looked at as well.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010 (clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are).

How to Evaluate Relievers
This article gives some hints as to what type of skills you should look at when deciding which bullpen arms to roster.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

Amongst relievers that tossed 60-innings last year, which pitchers racked up a K/9 mark over 7.50 with a BB/9 mark under 3.00? Clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are.

THE RULES

Here are the “rules” that I try follow when drafting pitchers.

STARTERS
Target at least a 6.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.30.

RELIEVERS
Target at least a 7.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.00.

There are certainly plenty of examples of pitchers who have success despite missing on one, or both, of those baselines, but if you’re asking me the optimal way to put together a pitching staff, then those are the marks I would be shooting for.

What does this mean in practical terms? It means that I would never reach for any of the following hurlers: Mark Buehrle, Rick Porcello, Carl Pavano, Doug Fister, Mike Pelfrey, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Fausto Carmona, R.A. Dickey, Trevor Cahill, Jon Garland, Derek Lowe or Randy Wells.

To be clear I’m not saying that there aren’t situations in which I would still call out these pitchers names – i.e. in a league specific scenario or very late in a mixed league draft – but there’s no chance I’m gonna target them to be one of my top four starters in a mixed league, and no, I don’t care how good they were last year.

At the other end of the spectrum here are some hurlers who I would look to call out at the end of a draft, even if they don’t seem to be as stable an option as the names I just listed. Remember, there will always be “average” guys on waivers in mixed leagues. I’m going to target high upside arms late, an if they flame out I’ll just grab one of those above guys to fill out my rotation.

Jorge de la Rosa: A dominating power hurler who has a a 8.95 K/9 mark since joining the Rockies in 2008, DLR’s issue is an inability to stay healthy and to locate his pitches at times. Given his K per inning rate the past three years, and the fact that he is a ground ball hurler, I’m willing to cut him a wee bit of slack even though his BB-rate is terrible at 4.12 per nine. Still, I’d rather take a shot on his ceiling than call out the name of a guy like Jon Garland.

Jhoulys Chacin: Like his Rockies’ teammate, Chacin dominated hitters with the K posting a 9.04 K/9 mark, but he also allowed far too many walks at 4.00 per nine. However, he also keeps the ball on the ground like DLR, and K’s plus grounders usually equals a lot of success – even in Colorado.

Bud Norris: This Astros’ hurler was 10th in baseball last year amongst pitchers who threw at least 100-innings with a 9.25 K/9 mark. He does come with a lot of risk though. First off, he often can’t throw strikes (4.51 walks per nine), and second he could always be moved back to the bullpen because he really doesn’t have very good secondary stuff. I’m still greatly intrigued by that power arm though.

Homer Bailey: A star prospect who was going to break through what, each of the last three years, it might finally be his time. Bailey posted a strong 8.26 K/9 mark last season with a 3.30 BB/9 rate, not to mention that he was able produce a 3.55 ERA an a 1.27 WHIP over his last 10 starts.

Jonathon Niese: I don’t think there will be many leagues this year where he will be taken before Pelfrey and Dickey, but I see no reason why that should be the case. Niese was really good last year until a final month meltdown when he wore out from his heavy workload (his ERA was 3.76 on Sept 18th before finishing at 4.20).

Chris Narveson: I’ve written about him before, but in case you missed it, did you realize that over his last 14 starts last year he had a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 7.33 K/9 mark with a 2.67 BB/9 rate?

Travis Wood: Rookies who post a 7.54 K/9 rate and a 2.28 BB/9 mark should certainly grab your attention, especially when the back of their ball card says that they were a 2nd round draft pick hinting that it’s not unreasonable to expect there to be enough talent to sustain that level of production.

Let me repeat my oft-heard refrain: TARGET SKILLS AND NOT ROLES

In the long run you’ll end up ahead if you follow this mantra. You’ll just have to target the right skills and have the patience to allow things to develop.

By Ray Flowers

Do Sleepers Exist?

There was an article posted today at Fanball called 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers. First off, I have a huge problem with the term “sleeper.” It’s so ingrained in our minds that when it is left out of a draft guide or preseason preview we get tons of emails asking how we could be so stupid as to not including such an article in our coverage.

Honestly though, what good is a “sleeper” article? In 1994 there was a point to it, but that time has long passed. In the “old days” before the internet blew up, data was hard to come by. Only those that really attempted to ferret it out were able to find it. However, information is everyone at this point. You can get it online for free – just like you do here at BaseballGuys – and you can find information everyone on the internet if you want to pay a few bucks. There are also shows on television dealing only with fantasy baseball, and I host a daily radio on Sirius/XM Radio where we talk about fantasy sports three hours a day (5-8 PM, EDT). The point is, with the data available in virtually every medium you could think of, there really are no true “sleepers” anymore. By draft day every player has been analyzed and worked over, so much so in many instances that a guy who was a sleeper in early January ends up being drafted in the 10th round in your mixed league draft in late March.

I think the best we can do is to put forward a list of players who are likely to be undervalued on draft day, though again, that value is completely arbitrary and will be determined totally based upon how those in your league value the players (if you buy Daric Barton in New York he might cost $7, but try purchasing him for less than $10 if you live in California).

Here are the names that were on the “sleeper” list I refered to at the top of the piece. In what follows I give my own thoughts on each (each writer took one player and gave his reasons why that guy should be a draft day target in the original piece).

Pedro Alvarez: He hit a combined 29 homers last season between Triple-A and the majors, but he also struck out a shameful 187 times. With such a poor approach at the dish, Alvarez is much more Adam Dunn than he is Ryan Zimmerman. Still, he has a shot to be a top-10 third basemen.

Mike Aviles: In his two healthy seasons he has hit better than .300. Do you know how many .300 seasons that Chase Utley has? Try two. Aviles seems capable of going 10/10 as well, and though his run producing is suspect, only nine players hit .300 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 2010.

Homer Bailey: He still needs to work on his secondary stuff, but Bailey pitched really well over his last 10 starts with a 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 59 Ks in 58.1 innings. He seems locked into a starting role with the Reds, and despite seeming like he has been around forever, Homer is just 24 years old.

Jay Bruce: He is a huge breakout candidate after his dynamic finish (.338-15-29 over his last 43 games) in 2010. However, that finish will have Bruce on everyone’s list of breakout candidates in 2011. There is no disputing that the youngster could be a huge run producer, and he has seen his walk rate improve each year, but the strikeouts are a concern.

Lorenzo Cain: He hit for average and flashed speed in 43 games after hitting .317 with 26 thefts in 84 games in the minors. Cain has hit .291 in the minors in his career, but it’s hard to envision him continuing to hit so well in a full season of work. The Royals believe in him as he was part of the package of players they received for Zack Greinke.

Starlin Castro: He was awful on the base paths with a 56 percent stolen base rate, and he closed out the year on a down note hitting .232 over his last 23 games. Someone will likely pay top dollar for a guy who might be merely solid in 2011 though he did hit .300 last year while not being able to legally pull back on a bottle of Jack.

Chris Coghlan: While his production was down in year two you can take solace in the fact he closed strong hitting .312 over his last 42 games. As a result, he is slated to start the year as the Marlins leadoff hitter. The knee he injured in a post game celebration should be fine for the start of games, but I worry about his ability to handle center field, the position he is currently slated to play.

Aaron Hill: This is the player in the review I referenced. Here is what I wrote.

“Let me construct this rather obvious case in three steps. (1) Even though he ‘struggled’ in 2010, Hill was tied for fourth amongst second basemen in homers with 26. He has 62 homers in the last two seasons, second most at the position (Dan Uggla has 64). (2) Hill has 176 RBI over the past two years, third most at second base. Clearly he is an elite power option. (3) From 2006-09, Hill hit at least .286 three times and he possesses a career .270 average. However, he hit just .205 in 2010. What in the hell happened? Hill owns a career line drive rate of 18.5 percent, slightly below the big league average (20 percent), but somehow that number dropped to a mere 10.6 percent last year. That’s roughly the equivalent to Adam Dunn hitting about 21 homers. Hill had the absolute worst LD-rate and BABIP (.196) in baseball, and there is about as much chance of that happening again in 2011 as there is of me getting a mid-season call up to the Giants. If he maintains his power from the last two years, he’ll go deep 31 times with 88 RBI, while matching his career .270 average would given him one hell of a season. Hello, Dan Uggla.”

Jonathan Niese: He made 30 starts for the Mets posting a 4.20 ERA. However, that’s somewhat deceiving; Niese had a 3.76 ERA after 28 starts before he was tanked in his last two outings (*12 ER in 8.1 innings). His numbers were sort of Doug Davis-ish with a 1.46 WHIP, 148 Ks and 62 walks in 173.2 innings. If he can locate his pitches, and keep the walks down, his ERA could easily be in the 3′s in 2011.

Jordan Zimmerman: A potential ace who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, Zimmerman is the classic “sleeper” who everyone will talk up to the point that he won’t be drafted like one. He should be 100 percent this season, and with a 8.76 K/9 and a 3.05 K/BB over 122.1 big league innings his future is definitely looking plenty bright.

By Ray Flowers

Random Thoughts

I felt like doing some random commentary today so what follows, in no particular order, follows that line of thought. – or better yet no line of thought.

I wrote about Andres Torres today in an IMPACT REPORT on Wednesday. I got a very well thought out email from a reader today which pointed out that sometimes guys get labeled as one thing (organizational depth) and never have a chance to bust out from that mold. I certainly agree, but I’m still sticking by what I said in the piece that I’m just not sold that he will be able to sustain his growth this season moving forward. One other little known fact – Torres uses the biggest bat on the Giants (35 inches, 33 ounces). Not bad for a guy who barely checks in at 190 lbs.

Yesterday I wrote about how Albert Pujols has a good chance to win the Triple Crown this season. However, as I was thinking about things today, I was struck by something rather amazing. As great as Pujols has been, and you can make the argument that no player has ever had a better 10-year run to start their career in the history of the game, it’s utterly amazing to think the following:

Albert Pujols has only led the league in average once (.359 in 2003).
Albert Pujols has only lead the league in homers once (47 last year).
Albert Pujols has NEVER led the league in RBI.

Isn’t that amazing? That means that Pujols has only led in the Triple Crown categories twice in his career. Hell, Dante Bichette pulled off that trick in 1995 when he led the NL in homers (40) and RBI (128).

Have you seen Madison Bumgarner in person? That is one big boy. Listed at 6’4″, 215 lbs, he is every bit of that. He might still get bigger too. The kid is only 21 years old (he reached that age just over three weeks ago). Don’t know how he gave up three first inning homers to the Reds on Wednesday though. Despite the rough outing, he still has an extremely bright future, and with his loose arm action I’m looking at him as a potentially dominating ace on the hill now that his fastball is back in the 93-94 mph range.

The last 30 days Garrett Jones is hitting .165, the worst mark in baseball, just ahead of the .170 total posted by Felipe Lopez. If you add up those two marks you end up at .335 which is a mere .121 points worse than the .456 mark of Joe Mauer. The previously mentioned Mr. Pujols leads the NL with a .398 mark.

Joey Votto is here to stay as a top fantasy option, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The man has a smooth stroke and isn’t afraid to go the other way. He should be a .300 hitter with 30 homers for years to come.

Brennan Boesch has scored four runs the past 30 days despite coming to the plate 104 times. That’s putrid.

I know Jose Bautista has gone deep 40 times, and dating back to last season he has 50 homers in his last 154 games, but are you buying this power surge? After all, the guy hit just 43 homers the past three years over 1,238 at-bats. So again, are you buying this? I put the over/under on his homer total at 31 for 2010.

Homer Bailey is still just 24 years old. Who knew?

Shin-Soo Choo is hitting .291 with 15 homers, 60 RBI, 59 runs and 15 steals despite spending some time on the DL this season. While that level of offensive production may not sound overwhelming, it should be pointed out that he is one of only four men in the game who are hitting .290 with at least 15 homers and 15 steals. The others are Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright and Evan Longoria.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 10, 2010

(1) Ryan Braun’s wrist an issue.

(2) The Mike Gonzalez situation explained.

(3) Jose Guillen on NL West contenders minds.

(4) Brandon Morrow to have next start moved back until Tuesday as I predicted would happen on Monday in Morrow Makes History – Sort Of.

(5) Mike Leake could lose starting spot to Homer Bailey.

(6) Rich Harden to have start pushed back at least until Sunday.

(7) Gil Meche hopes to return to bullpen this season.

(8) Nyjer Morgan’s hip is an issue.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May24, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano tosses 73 pitches in simulated game. Hopes to return to rotation next week.

(2) Erik Bedard suffered a setback this weekend. Shocking.

(3) Homer Bailey, John Maine placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.

(4) Mat Latos 0.93 ERA, 0.55 WHIP in his last four starts.

(5) Alfredo Simon hurts hamstring. Orioles may not have to turn to Cla Meredith and Will Ohman in 9th.

(6) Gordon Beckham to remain in the bigs.

(7) Mike Cameron will return to the Red Sox on Tuesday.

(8) With Clint Barmes struggling to hit, Rockies are interested in bring back Kaz Matsui.

By Ray Flowers