What to Make of These Starters?

I was tempted to write about Brian Cushing and the whole PED issue as it pertains to football where drug use clearly isn’t taken seriously, but I have a date later tonight with a hot female friend and I didn’t want to get all worked up before it so I’ll save those comments for later in the week. Instead, I thought I would chronicle a handful of starting pitchers and give you my thoughts on whether or not they should be on your fantasy radar at the moment.

Bronson Arroyo has a 1.28 WHIP through seven starts, but that’s a dangerous number to pin your hopes on given his other numbers that include a 5.36 ERA and a 1.87 K/BB mark. In his two victories he has allowed three runs, and in his first start of the year he allowed one run to the Cardinals in eight innings, but he’s also had three outings in which he has allowed at least five earned runs making him a tough guy to roll with since you don’t know what you’re gonna get from start to start.

Luis Atilano is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA through four starts for the Nationals. Don’t be swayed by the power of the darkside though as Atilano has clearly made the same deal with Mephistopheles that Livan Hernandez has worked out. Atilano has a 0.92 BB/K mark, and while more analysis is certainly needed before pronouncing sentence on someone, he clearly isn’t someone you should be counting on even in NL-only leagues.

Doug Davis is 1-4 for the Brewers through seven starts. The good is his fantastic 8.64 K/9 mark (that mark has been 7.04 or lower in each of the past four seasons). The bad is that he s still walking everyone – his BB/9 mark is 4.86. Considering that he is giving up hits at a rate of once every three at-bats, it’s no surprise that his WHIP sits at 1.98. Even when he’s doing something right such as striking people out, he still can’t be trusted in fantasy leagues.

Kyle Kendrick has but one victory in his seven starts on the year, hardly a surprise given a 5.89 ERA and 1.55 WHIP that have led to at least four earned runs in five of his seven outings. Kendrick’s K/9 rate of 3.93 is atrocious, though it’s right on his career mark (3.92), and the resulting K/BB mark of 1.14 scream out ‘I’m in big trouble.’ When you add in six homers for a HR/9 mark of 1.47 it’s clear that Kendrick is holding on by a thread.

Nate Robertson is 3-3 in his first seven starts in the NL for the Marlins. Like the other listed above him however, I’m clearly not high on his chances of being overly successful this season. Robertson’s K/9 rate of 5.80 is below his already poor 6.09 career mark, and just like last season when he walked everyone (5.07 BB/9), Robertson has walked an average of 4.54 batters per nine this season, well above his 3.28 career mark. You simply can’t have long-term success with the 1.28 K/BB mark that he currently possesses. A large portion of his success has been derived from a career low 15.5 percent line drive rate (career 18.9) and the fact that his HR/F ratio is 9.1 percent (career 12.6). Unless he throws a whole bunch more strikes, when those last two numbers correct themselves things could get ugly in Florida.

Reds’ starting pitchers allowed five hits the past two days to the sad sack Pirates. Homer Bailey allowed four hits in a complete game shutout on Wednesday while Johnny Cueto pitched a on hitter in his shutout on Tuesday. Both hurlers warrant consideration in mixed leagues, with Cueto clearly being the more intriguing play (he has 33 Ks in 42 innings and his 2.75 K/BB mark is solid). At the same time, don’t over value what either man has done the past two days – after all they were facing the Pirates.

Finally, what do I do when I’m not sitting here at the computer banging away reports and videos on the world of sports? Of course I run night time missions that need to be filmed by infrared cameras. Think I’m kidding? Give Jed Wars – Operation Flamingo a view.

By Ray Flowers

Some Regular Season Thoughts

With Game 163 on the docket tonight, playoff fever is in the air. But before we totally succumb to that level of trepidation and elation, I thought I would hit on a few of the storylines from the regular season that popped into my noggin’ today.

Andrew Bailey isn’t getting a lot of pub when it comes to the AL Rookie of the Year award, and you can thank the fact that he played half his games in front of about 11,000 people a night out in Oakland. If he pitched for the Yankees or the Red Sox he would be a household name. Bailey saved 26 games for an A’s team that won only 75 contests, and along the way he posted a 1.84 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a strong 9.83 K/9 mark. How many hurlers posted an ERA below 1.90 with a WHIP below 0.90 and racked up at least 25 saves this past season? The answer is one – one. Mariano Rivera had a 0.90 WHIP and Trevor Hoffman had a 0.91 WHIP. They were close, but no cigar.

Homer Bailey may have finally established himself at the major league level. Over his last seven starts he went 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 42 Ks over 43.3 innings pitched. He still hasn’t really solved those control issues (3.95 BB/9 in that time), but he may just have picked up enough about the art of pitching to get by with his above average stuff.

Chris Coghlan finished sixth in the NL batting race hitting .321 as a rookie for the Marlins. Not only was he a tremendous option for his overall work – he was actually flat out amazing over the second half of the season as he hit a Joe Mauer-like .372 over his final 72 games covering 304 ABs. Moreover, if we remove May when he was finding his legs in the bigs, Coghlan hit .338 over his 438 ABs. Not a bad rookie season Mr. CC.

Pablo Sandoval has got to be 30 pounds overweight, and I swear to my maker that he is off balance on literally about 50 percent of his swings, not to mention that he obviously went to the Vladimir Guerrero school of ‘if it’s in the air I’m going to swing at it.’ Despite all that, and the fact that he entered 2009 with only 145 big league at-bats, the Kung Fu Panda was second in the NL in the batting race (.330) while socking 25 homers, knocking in 90 runs and finishing seventh with a .943 OPS. I know it’s hard to believe, but I’m telling you this kid has a lot to learn about hitting. I don’t know if that means he will improve upon his current level of production, but he can certainly improve his technique and approach, and that has to be one scary thought for hurlers.

Vincente Padilla came over to the Dodgers after going 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with the Rangers. I, for one, though this was a desperate move. I still think it was, but the fact of the matter is that it has certainly paid dividends for the Dodgers who got some terrific work from the righty in his eight appearances (4-0, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). In his last start he lasted seven innings against the Rockies striking out a season best 10 batters, and as a result he will apparently start Game 3 of the first round of the playoffs for the Dodgers. It certainly would help the Dodgers outlook immensely if they were able to get the “real” Chad Billingsley in the playoffs after he struggled pretty heavily down the stretch with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over his last 14 appearances (he did last 12 innings in his last two starts, but he went 0-1 with a 3.75 while walking nine batters). Don’t know about you, but I simply cannot count the Dodgers as a legitimate World Series contender if they are counting on Padilla to be their third starter in the playoffs.

Lastly, if you want some info about Game 163 pitting the Twins against the Tigers, give Around the Horn a read.

By Ray Flowers

Players That Are Hot

I’m tired. I had a long day filled with lots of work from writing, editing and posting of football, baseball and hockey stories, including a bunch of rather fantastic hockey articles at Fanball as well. And yes, before you ask, some of them were written by yours truly.

Joey Votto continues to bash pitchers with alacrity over the final month of the season. Votto went 4-for-5 on Wednesday night as he pushed his average up to almost .370 on the month. Votto is now hitting .308 with 22 homers and 74 RBI in a mere 433 ABs on the season. If we push those numbers out to 550 ABs we end up with a .308-28-94 line, and that would obviously suggest that a potential .300-30-100 season could be in the way in 2010 from this sweet swinging lefty.

Votto’s teammate, Homer Bailey, seems to have finally, f-i-n-a-l-l-y figured things out at the big league level. Though he has a 5.02 ERA on the year, he has finally started to throw strikes and the results have been pretty striking. After allowing two runs in six innings against the Pirates Bailey has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last seven starts while posting a 1.99 ERA. It’s a small sample size for sure, but keep his name in mind in the late rounds in 2010 as a selection of Bailey could result in a nice return.

Welcome back to hitting right-handed Carlos Guillen. Guillen went deep from both sides of the plate on Wednesday night in just his second game since returning to action from that injured shoulder, and this was just the second game that he has even attempted to hit right-handed in. This was the fourth time in his career that he had gone deep from both sides of the dish in the same game.

What is it about the second half and Adam LaRoche? You think it’s frustrating as a fantasy owner – can you just imagine just how hard it is on LaRoche when he knows, he literally knows, he is gonna stink for about two plus months before turning into a dominating force at the dish. LaRoche is hitting .355 with 36 RBI in 47 games since returning to Atlanta. Any doubt where he wants to sign when his contract is up after the season? Jeez, this is another first baseman isn’t it? I’m telling you, they are just everywhere

Another youngster, Bud Norris, has looked pretty solid this season for the Astros even if it hasn’t always been a smooth ride. He tossed six scoreless innings at the Cards on Wednesday to lower his ERA to just barely over 1.50 in his last four starts. With 54 Ks in 55.2 innings he has shown the ability to put hitters away, and as they say, you can’t teach stuff, and he’s got that in spades. A bright future this kid has (channeling my inner Yoda).

I thought that David Ortiz was washed up? He may be hitting only .234 but he has 25 homers and 88 RBI, so he has still been fairly productive despite an OPS below .800. OK, he is only sort of washed up.

Nick Punto hitting .327 in September as the Twins try and clay there way to the playoffs. Just saying.

How stupid do the Red Sox feel right now? John Smoltz worked another night of magic for the Redbirds allowing just two runs over six innings against the Astros. In six starts with Cardinals his ERA is 3.18 and his WHIP 1.00. With the Red Sox try on an 8.32 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Guess he was tipping those pitches eh? Either that or he and/or Dave Duncan made a deal with Lucifer that involved someone giving over their soul.

We got ourselves quite the race for the NL RBI crown. Here is how things stand after action on Wednesday night:

Prince Fielder – 131
Ryan Howard – 130
Albert Pujols – 129

They all play first base by the way, further proof of just how loaded that position is in the game today. No idea how the situation resolves itself, but can you really bet against Mr. Pujols when it has anything to do with baseball?

By Ray Flowers