2011 Positional Review – Second Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

2011 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Brandon Phillips
4 Dan Uggla
5 Chase Utley
6 Ian Kinsler
7 Rickie Weeks
8 Howie Kendrick
9 Aaron Hill
10 Martin Prado

Cano hit .302, third at the position, had 28 homers, third at the position, knocked in 118 runs, first at the position, and scored 104 runs, second at the position. Yeah, he lived up to the preseason hype.

Pedroia was phenomenal for the Red Sox hitting .307 with 21 homers, 91 RBI, 102 runs and 26 stolen bases. That effort was just the sixth, ever, for a second baseman (minimum .300-20-90-100-25).

Phillips hit .300 for the first time, scored 94 runs, blasted 18 homers and knocked in 82 runs. It was a great season even if he stole just 14 bases, his lowest total since joining the Reds in 2006.

Uggla was horrible, then electric in his first season with the Braves. Add it all up and he hit a career worst .233. However, he also scored 88 runs, hit a career best 36 homers, and knocked in 82 runs. That gave him 6-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 82 RBI and 84 runs scored. Only one other second baseman in history has ever had six such seasons (Jeff Kent), and Uggla has done it 6-years in a row – every year he has been in the league (no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years).

Utley had a decent season for a late round draft pick asked to full the middle infield spot (.259-11-44-54-14), but that knee injury just killed his season, and he’s now had back-to-back seasons that are nowhere near his established level of excellence (in 2010 he went .275-16-65-75-13).

Kinsler rebounded from a down 2010 to post his second 30/30 effort in three years. He hit only .255, but he powered a career-high 32 homers and scored 121 runs, another career best.

Weeks, against my better judgment really, came in seventh at the position at the start of the year. As I pointed out numerous times, Weeks had three season of less than 100 games, and three over 100 games coming into the year. He kind of split the difference appearing in 118 games, but the lack of times on the field limited his contributions to being a really good season, but not a great one (.269-20-49-77-9).

Kendrick saved me from a lot of flack. I ranked him pretty high this spring, and everyone called me out for it. In the end, he produced one of the better 5×5 lines at the position going .285-18-63-86-14. Do you know how many second base eligible players hit .285 with 18 homers, 63 RBI, 86 runs and 14 steals? The answer is three – Pedroia, Phillips and Kendrick.

Hill was a massive disappointment yet again, and I’m really at a loss as to why. He hit .246 with eight homers, 61 RBI, and 61 runs scored. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 31 homers a season in 2009-10. He somewhat saved his season by swiping 21 bases, nearly halfway to his career mark of 44 thefts.

Prado was a disaster in 2011. He hit 13 homers with 57 RBI which was about as expected, but he scored only 66 runs and even worse, after hitting .307 in back-to-back seasons, batted just .260. You can, at least in part, blame his BABIP which was .266, well below his career rate of .315 (his line drive rate was also a career worst at 14.6 percent, this after posting at least a 19.8 percent mark from 2008-2010).

Hit: Howie Kendrick #8
Bust: Hill #9

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August18, 2011

(1) Derek Jeter hitting .344 of late.

(2) Jeff Francoeur signs 2-year deal with Royals.

(3) Ervin Santana – dynamic last six starts.

(4) Frank Francisco the Blue Jays closer.

(5) Mike Napoli crushing it, on .290-40-100 pace.

(6) Players with homer droughts – Howie Kendrick, Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez who is struggling.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 26, 2011

(1) Buster Posey severely injured. Brandon Belt part of the callups as Giants make major changes. If you need help at the catchers position give Behind the Dish a read.

(2) Howie Kendrick to DL with leg issue.

(3) Brandon League is back at it.

(4) Andrew Bailey closing in on return.

(5) How useless are win-loss records to judge pitchers?

(6) Grady Sizemore (knee) could be back on Friday.

By Ray Flowers

Touching the Bases

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Nick Blackburn has made nine starts this year. Though he has a 3.40 ERA, his WHIP is a pedestrian 1.40. However, what’s more interesting is that he has allowed exactly five earned runs in three starts while in his other six outings he has yet to allow more than two earned runs. In fact, in five of his nine starts on the year he has allowed zero or one earned run.

I talk about skills versus role all the time. I wish the Dodgers were listening. With Vicente Padilla on the shelf, it looks like Matt Guerrier is going to get first crack at the 9th inning for the club. MG is a perfectly solid bullpen arm, there is no disputing his track record there, but really Dodgers? Has anyone ever looked at MG and said ‘now there’s a closer’? Not once. Though his K-rate is up to 7.33 – he owns a career mark of just 5.98 – he’s also walking batters at the second worst rate of his career at 3.86. He just doesn’t have the kind of stuff you look for to close out games. Kenley Jansen has that stuff – and then some. In 44.1 innings in the bigs Jansen has a K/9 rate of 14.21, a simply amazing mark. Yes he has trouble throwing strikes, he’s walked 5.71 batters per nine on the year, but his 2.64 K/BB ratio is still light years ahead of the 1.90 mark from MG this season. I understand the Dodgers reluctance to give Jansen 9th inning work, but he’s still the arm I want to add.

Ramon Hernandez lost his 11 game hitting streak Thursday night. On the year he is hitting .337 though, so don’t feel too sorry for him. His career mark by the way is .266.

I posed this question on Twitter, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of the dark haired beauty. If you had your choice, and by “you” I mean me when I make it big and head to Hollywood, would you rather date Mila Kunis or Natalie Portman?

Howie Kendrick might miss a couple of games with a tender hamstring, but he has been a force all season long for the Angels. Kendrick, who leads the AL with 19 multi-hit games on the year, is hitting .322 with seven homers, 18 RBI and four steals. He is the only second baseman in baseball to have reached all four of those marks. Do you all remember back in March when I had Kendrick ranked as my 68th best player in my Top-300? I remember quite a few people saying I was an idiot. Well, so far so good. Of course, there is always the chance that he ends up no the DL as his history would suggest, but I’m keeping the faith with the second baseman/first baseman/outfielder (this season he has appeared in 30 games at second, 12 at first and nine in the outfield).

Albert Pujols has gone 91 at-bats with a home run. Erick Aybar hit one 15 at-bats ago. In 10 seasons Pujols has never failed to hit at least 32 homers. Will this be the first year that he fails to hit 30 (he has seven in 45 games)?

Everyone loves to hate on B.J. Upton. Don’t get me wrong I get it, the guy is a total flake, fails to hustle at times, and clearly has a .10 cent head, but man does the guy have skills. After a so-so start in April, he has exploded in May for a .295 average, four homers, 16 RBI and a .918 OPS. Unfortunately he has stolen only one base on the month, but he is still well on pace to go 25/25 this year, and there just aren’t that many guys in the game who can do that.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 17, 2011

photo © 2010 Ro Datz | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Martin Prado vs. Howie Kendrick – how close is it?
– @kevingilmore3

I love this question. It’s kind of like asking – Kim Kardashian or Sofia Vergara? You really can’t go wrong either way. In fact, let’s be honest, you’d take either one home to meet mamma and feel pretty good about it.

Eligibility
M. Prado: Qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF
Kendrick: Qualifies at 2B. In most leagues he is also 1B eligible, and possibly OF (he’s played six games there this season).

Career Numbers
M. Prado: .305/.354/.454
Kendrick: .296/.331/.431

Pretty darn close, eh?

Career Numbers (per 500 ABs)
M. Prado: .305-11-60-76-3
Kendrick: .296-9-61-66-12

Pretty darn close yet again.

2011 Numbers
M. Prado: .305-6-27-28-1
Kendrick: .310-6-17-29-4

I know I’m supposed to be the expert and have all the answers, but in this case there may not be a definitive answer. Like I said, how do you choose between Kardashian and Vergara?

Ah hell, give me Vergara and Kendrick.

Jed Lowrie or Mike Aviles? Looking for a David Wright replacement.
– @itsthejohnes

I bet it would surprise a lot of people out there to learn that Aviles has more homers (five to three), RBI (26 to 18) and steals (eight to zero) than Lowrie. Don’t overlook how significant that difference in the steals department is either, it makes up for the massive gap in their batting average right now (.243 to .320).

Lowrie hit .368 in April. He is hitting .259 in May.
Lowrie had a .389 OBP in April. That mark is .317 in May.
Lowrie had a .574 SLG in April. That mark is .407 in May.
Lowrie had a K-rate of 16 percent in April. That mark is 28 percent in May.

You get the point.

A middle infield option who is hitting .320 is a fine addition to any squad, but what if that same player hits 12 homers and doesn’t steal a single base? That’s the pace that Lowrie is on for those of you who haven’t been keeping track.

Aviles owns a career .292 average, so where did those extra .050 points go? His BABIP is .253, only .067 points below his career level, as he has struggled to hit the ball on the screws. Aviles has posted line drive rates of 20.2, 18.9 and 18.8 percent the past three years which seems to strongly suggest that he won’t continue to struggle along at 11.6 percent. The problem right now is that he has jacked up his fly ball rate by 13 percent. Aviles would do well to remember that he is a 12-15 homer bat. If he continues to hit 50 percent of his balls sky ward success could elude him.

Lowrie is second base and shortstop eligible while Aviles is second base as well as third base eligible in almost every league, so there is no advantage there for either player. Given that Aviles is the only one who runs, and that he owns a .292 career average (Lowrie is at .266), I’m going with Aviles if I have to choose one.

Is it time to cash in on Curtis Granderson’s hot start?
– @rickyhelsel

If it weren’t for the ridiculously hot Jose Bautista, Granderson would be leading baseball in home runs as Granderson has 14 homers through 39 games putting him on pace to obliterate his career best mark of 30 long balls. Granderson is already roughly 40 percent to his carer best of 74 RBI with 31. Toss in a .993 OPS, .080 points clear of anything he has ever done before, and you should be considering selling high on the Yankees’ outfielder.

Granderson has a 53 percent fly ball rate. Not only would that be a career-high, it would blow past his 44 percent career mark. Granderson also has a 25 percent HR/F mark. He’s never posted a mark above 14.5 percent in a full season, and his current mark is nearly double his career rate of 13.2 percent. Can we reasonably expect both of those trends to continue? Not in my world.

All of the extra fly balls also create an issue in the batting average category. After hitting .249 and .247 the past two years the inclination when you see his .280 mark this year is that he has figured things out and is back on course. However, the data doesn’t really support that position. Granderson is within a percentage point of his career walk rate, and his current K-rate of 25.9 percent would be a five year worst. He’s also, partially because of the extra fly balls, posting a career worst 15.1 percent line drive rate. Putting all of that data together would seem to suggest that Curtis will have a hard time hitting .280 this season unless he changes his approach.

So would I trade him? I trade anyone on my roster if the right offer came along so I’m certainly not going to say you should hold on to a guy who it would seem is in line for a reduction in production the rest of the way.

Mark Reynolds or Brett Wallace the rest of the way?
– @gregory671

On the surface this seems like a preposterous question since Wallace is hitting .323 and Reynolds .191, but when you look a bit deeper, it’s a fair question – and no, I’m not faded from pulling back four Mai Tai’s this morning. Look at the other four fantasy categories.

Wallace: two homers, 12 RBI, 20 Runs, one steal
Reynolds: five homers, 19 RBI, 17 runs, one steal

You’re probably still skeptical. How about we look at how each guy has done in the month of May.

Wallace: .200-1-3-5 with a .600 OPS
Reynolds: .229-3-5-7 with a .800 OPS

Still not convinced, right? Does history mean anything to you? Obviously you can’t directly compare Reynolds to Wallace in that respect since Wallace has never played a full season, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t mean something when it comes to Reynolds. Yes, he is a dreadful option the batting average category, perhaps a debilitating one, but don’t forget these facts.

1- Reynolds has produced an average of 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs the past three years. All told he was first amongst third basemen in homers, fourth in RBI and second in runs from 2008-10.

2- Reynolds has hit 37 homers with 104 RBI and 96 runs since the start of the 2010 season. Those numbers place him second amongst third basemen in homers, sixth in RBI and sixth in runs scored.

Do you take a chance on a guy who seems destined to hit 30 homers while struggling to hit .240?

As I warned back on April 28th in 2011 Player Profile: Justin Smoak and Brett Wallace, I’d be wary of overestimating the hot start of Wallace. That doesn’t mean he is waiver-wire fodder, but the fact of the matter is that to this point of the season Wallace has really been nothing other than an empty batting average producer. If I needed batting average on my squad I’d take Wallace, but if I was looking at rostering the player who will have the most fantasy value from this point forward, give me Reynolds.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Mailbag: April 19, 2011

Photo by Scott Ableman

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I have one roster spot to speculate saves. In order please rank Mitchell Boggs, Sergio Santos and Drew Storen?
– @5wallace

Ever get the feeling that you’re Bill Murray in Groundhog Day? You remember the movie where Murray is forced to live the same day over and over again, right? I ask because I’ve literally answered questions about Boggs and Santos for days now, and no matter how many times I do, someone always asks again 30 minutes later. I’m tempted to say this is to be the definitive answer and never address it again… we’ll see.

A review of the White Sox bullpen

Matt Thornton: 0-2, 4 BS, 7.94 ERA, 2.82 WHIP
Chris Sale: 2-0, 1 BS, 7.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
Jesse Crain: 0-1, 0 BS, 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
Sergio Santos: 0-0, 0 BS, 0.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

Thornton still has an elite arm, but he’s been awful this year. When a guy starts out this bad it’s nearly impossible for his manager to turn back to him in the 9th unless everyone else fails.

Sale has a terrific 9:1 K/BB ratio right now, but he’s given up 11 hits in 7.1 innings and has a scant 30.2 innings in his big league career. Don’t forget, the future for this guy long-term is in the rotation.

Crain is a solid big league hurler who owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 390.1 innings, but he also has only three saves in 382 appearances.

Santos is pitching the best of any arm in the bullpen. Batters are hitting only .167 off him, and he has 11 Ks in just 8.2 innings.

A review of the Cardinals’ bullpen

Ryan Franklin: 0-2, 4 BS, 11.57 ERA, 2.14 WHIP
Jason Motte: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Trevor Miller: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Miguel Batista: 1-0, 0 BS, 1.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Eduardo Sanchez: 8 Ks in 3 IP
Mitchell Boggs: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.00 ERA, 0.67

Unlike Thornton, Franklin doesn’t own the considerable skills normally associated with locking down the 9th inning (despite his success the last two years). I had no faith in Franklin three weeks ago, and even less in him now.

Motte, thought of as the closer of the future, has struggled with locating his pitches. He’s also been unable to put away batters with only three punchouts in seven innings. He just isn’t “right” at the moment.

Miller has looked solid, but he is a lefty matchup pitcher, not a 9th inning option.

Batista is old, no good and has all of four saves the past five years. If the Cards turn to him, boy are they desperate.

Sanchez has looked phenomenal in his three innings. Still, Tony La Russa rarely relies on rookies late in games.

Boggs has looked terrific thus far with an impressive 12.00 K/9 mark and a 4.00 K/BB ratio through six appearances.

A review of the Nationals’ bullpen

Sean Burnett: 0-0, 1 BS, 2.35 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Tyler Clippard: 0-0, 2 BS, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Drew Storen: 1-1, 0 BS, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP

Burnett has done nothing to lose work in the ninth inning, and he has three of the teams four saves. However he’s a lefty, and teams usually try to avoid portsiders in the 9th.

Clippard has an impressive 13 Ks in 11 innings over nine appearances. He can go more than an inning at at time which likely means he’ll continue to function in a setup role.

Storen is the closer of the future for the Nats, and he has looked really good since the bright lights of the regular season turned on. I’m still fully confident that he will end the year as the team leader in saves.

If I was choosing between the three arms I’d align them Storen, Boggs and Santos.

Do you think Howie Kendrick will continue to hit for the power he has shown so far this year?
– @cliffbeach21

It ain’t gonna happen. The past two years Kendrick has hit 10 homers each campaign making his five homers in 16 at-bats this season a shocking development. All you need to know about what is going on here is to look at his HR/F category. In his career he is a slightly below big league average producer with a 7.9 percent mark. This year that mark is up over 35 percent. There’s no chance that will continue – zilch (to compare, Ryan Howard’s career mark is 29.5 percent). With his hot start 20 homers is possible, but thinking 15 is still a safer bet.

Mike Leake still rosterable in leagues that penalize caught stealing?
– @jeffonsports

How could I not post this question in my article? I’d suggest that you check to see if your league counts caught stealing on the same level as dollars. If so, his theft of nearly $60 dollars worth of clothes could create a hole he would be unable to recovery from.

Dan Haren for Jay Bruce- who is the better fantasy player for the rest of the year?
– @jabisamra

When you go to the store to buy a TV do you spend $1000 on that 50 inch plasma television you know will deliver solid quality since you’ve had a plasma for a decade, or do you go for the new technology and spend $1700 on a similarly equipped LCD television? That’s kind of like what is going on here.

Dan Haren is an ace – period. He’s off to a tremendous start yet again this year with a 4-0 record, 1.16 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 13.50 K/BB ratio through five appearances. Far from an April surger who doesn’t have a track record, this guy has been a star for years. From 2005-10 Haren is first in baseball with 203 starts, second in innings pitched (1,343, eight behind CC Sabathia), third in strikeouts (1,176) and tied for sixth in wins (85). There may not be a more stable arm in the game.

Bruce was a superstar at the end of last year hitting .306 with 15 homers over his last 58 games causing many to go all-in at the draft table this year. So far that bet hasn’t been rewarded with performance on the field as Bruce has managed to hit a .268 with two homers and six RBI in 14 games. He’s also continued a troubling trend in his young career – a propensity to rack up strikeouts quickly. Owner of a career strikeout rate of 25.6 percent, Bruce has performed even worse this year with a 32.1 percent mark. He’s also hit far too many balls into the air with a scary 59 percent fly ball are. Most seem to have also forgotten that coming into the year that Bruce had 12 steals and 13 caught stealing, and in more than 1,300 big league at-bats he has hit just .257 so there are plenty of warts with this youngster.

Bruce still has plenty of time to post that 30-100 season many thought was coming this year, but I’m much less certain about his 2011 outlook than I’m with the ultra consistent Haren who just keeps on doing it year after year. Take Haren.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD 2011: PART II

Yesterday in K-BAD 2011: PART I I laid out the parameters of one of the experts leagues I’m participating in this year. In addition to giving the lay of the land, I also ran through my first 10 selections. Today, I’ll continue to run through my team focusing on picks 11-20.

Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

For a review of the whole draft see the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

Round 11-8: Juan Pierre, OF, White Sox
I went for the value pick, even though that wasn’t at all my plan. I didn’t really need the steals, but this choice should allow me to finish at, or near the top in the category barring injury. Maybe Pierre’s solid average in a ton of at-bats can also help to offset the poor marks of Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.

Round 12-5: Chad Billingsley, SP, Dodgers
I wanted to take Pablo Sandoval in the 10th and 11th rounds, and told myself I would take him here if he was still available. He was, but I went with the consistency of Chad Billingsley instead. You know I’m playing to win when I take a Dodger over a Giant.

Round 13-8: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
I already have two second base eligible players, but Zobrist can play OF so it’s not an issue. Kendrick fills my need for batting average help as well – something I need with Dunn/Reynolds (a situation I also tried to address with the selection of Pierre that I mentioned above).

Round 14-5: Carlos Lee, 1B/OF, Astros
Amazingly consistent with 11-straight years of 24 homers, 80 RBI, Lee’s multi position eligibility (OF/1B) led me to calling out his name even though I still need a catcher. Hopefully I’ll be able to address my backstop with my next selection.

Round 15-8: Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals
I considered taking a catcher in the 13th and 14th rounds before finally pulling the trigger. I’d have preferred Carlos Ruiz taken one pick before me, but Molina is a solid option and honestly, there is nothing more than a hair’s difference between the two this season.

Round 16-5: Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins
Everyone has gone closer crazy the last couple of rounds leaving this potential top-25 starting option on the board. If he could ever put everything together, he could be top-15 starter. You can read more about my thoughts on Nolasco in Hot Stove: Holliday Dealings.

Round 17-8: Joel Hanrahan, RP, Pirates
I don’t know if he will close or not (I think he will), but the arm is live and over his last 33 appearances he had a 13.50 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB. NOTE: It was announced two days after I  made this pick that Hanrahan would indeed open the year as the team’s closer. For more on why I thought Hanrahan was a great reliever to target make sure to read Radiant Relievers.

Round 18-5: Scott Baker, SP, Twins
I agonized over this pick, not because I don’t like Baker, but because of trying to figure out how I would fill out my catcher and shortstop position if I took him. It’s one of the problems with “slow drafts” – you have too much time to ponder your choices.

Round 19-8: Jason Bartlett, SS, Padres
I don’t love this pick, but I think Bartlett was the best SS left on the board and he’s the guy I’ve been targeting since I made the choice to pass on SS earlier. I’ve written this before, but I really don’t think, at the end of the day, that there will be much difference between Starlin Castro, who was taken in the 14th round in this draft, and Bartlett in terms of fantasy production in 2011.

Round 20-5: Leo Nunez, RP, Marlins
This is the type of guy you end up having to take a chance on when you don’t roster the top flight closers. I feel good enough about my offense to roster the risk. If he hadn’t struggled at the end of the year, he likely would have been taken at least five rounds earlier. After all, Nunez had a 9.83 K/9 mark, a 3.38 K/BB ratio and a strong 1.79 GB/FB ratio. If he repeats in those three categories this season, he should be able to rack up another 30 saves.

In Part III of this series I’ll review my final eight selections and give a few closing thoughts on the draft.

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What is It?

This is the time of year when everyone is firing off their top-whatever lists ranking players in fantasy baseball. Those lists certainly have value as they give you an idea of what the “experts” are thinking in terms of player value, but they are really only half the story. Just because I have Howie Kendrick as my 11th second baseman, doesn’t tell you two things. (1) It doesn’t tell you where he is being drafted (maybe everyone else has him 16th?). (2) It doesn’t tell you when he is being drafted? That’s where ADP comes into play.

What is ADP? Simply put, it means Average Draft Position. What is that? It’s just what it says – in a standard draft when, on average, is the player being drafted? This information is crucial. Let’s return to our example of Howie Kendrick.

Again, let’s postulate my rankings system has Kendrick at 11th amongst second basemen. Therefore, you would most likely want to draft Kendrick after the top-10 second sackers were out of the way right (duh)? Now I trust my own draft list so I would have a lot of confidence in it on draft day, but I would be foolish not to check out what others were thinking. The best way to do this is to look over ADP information from a source, something like Couch Managers for example. That site offers draft software which enables people to do as many mock drafts as time permits. After those drafts, the site then compiles all the data and presents its ADP data based up on all the drafts for a specific time frame. This way you can average out the Anaheim crazy who drafted Kendrick 5th at the position as well as those leagues that are scared away by his poor track record of health causing him to fall to 22nd. The resulting number would be his “average” draft position (how convenient given the title of this piece, no?) This is the real world information you need in order to know where he is being drafted at the position as well as where he is being drafted overall.

Let’s take a look at the actual data.

Currently, Kendrick has an ADP of 173 according to Couch Managers. This means that he is going 173rd overall in standard leagues. So, if you are trying to decide if you should take him with the 122nd pick overall, you’d likely be able to wait at least another round or two before being pressed into having to make a decision. If you think Kendrick can be the 122nd most valuable player you can certainly draft him at that spot, but the ADP information allows you to understand that you don’t need to draft him that early – that is if you buy into the law of averages and what others are doing.

Secondarily, ADP data obviously gives you an understanding of where amongst the hierarchy at the position a player is being selected. Again, if I have him at 11th yet his ADP value shows him to be going 18th at the position as he is according to Couch Managers, I may be able to wait a bit longer before pulling the trigger on the Angels’ second sacker.

Third, ADP data is also useful because it can help to solidify some tiering thoughts in your mind. As an example, at second base Dan Uggla has an ADP of 87, 11th at the position. The 12th man on the list, Asdrubal Cabrera, isn’t being drafted until 120th overall. That means the average fantasy drafter clearly sees a big gap in the perceived value of second basemen with 33 spots in the overall rankings separating #11 from #12. Useful information, right?

In future pieces I’ll break down some of those players that I think are going off the board too early, as well as some of those that might be great draft day bargains, but I wanted to make sure we were all on the same page when it came to ADP data before I moved into the nitty gritty of it.

And finally, in case you missed it, one of the greatest sports stories I have ever come across showed up today, and I would be remiss if I didn’t direct you towards it. It involves a wiener, a guys eye, and a mascot, and if you think that sounds oddly enticing do yourself a favor and click on the link to Living Up the Nickname. Trust me, you won’t regret spending a few minutes on this one.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers