Top-20 RPs for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for us to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-20 Top-10 Closers for 2011 and try to explain how it is possible that two of our experts left Andrew Bailey out of their top-10.

ANDREW BAILEY

As Ted asked in his the initial report, how is it that Mike Sheets and Seth Trachtman left Bailey completely out of their top-10? I listed him at #5, so the question is, was I right or wrong? Come on, do you really think I’m ever wrong? Here are the data points that prove beyond a doubt that Bailey should be listed in front of guys like Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street and Chris Perez and firmly in the top-10 for 2011.

(1) Amongst pitchers who tossed at least 40-innings in 2010, Bailey was 5th in ERA (1.47). Moreover, and make sure you are firmly planted in your seat when you read this next sentence, Bailey has the best ERA in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125-innings. Bailey’s mark is 1.70, slightly ahead of the 1.78 ERA of Al Spalding (and yes, that is the same Spalding whose name adorns sporting apparel these days).

(2) Bailey was 12th in WHIP (0.96) in 2010. Moreover, the past two seasons, amongst hurlers with at least 125-innings pitched, Bailey is #1 in the game with a base runner per nine mark of 8.16 – slightly ahead of the 8.26 mark Mariano Rivera.

(3) Bailey had a mere 7.72 K/9 mark in 2010, but amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 125-innings the past two years Bailey’s K/9 mark of 9.05 is 28th in baseball. Moreover, amongst pitchers with at least 50-saves, that K/9 mark is is 8th.

(4) Bailey has 51 saves the past two years, the 20th best mark in baseball. That number would be higher if not for two factors. First, he wasn’t the closer for the A’s at the start of the 2009 season, and second, injury limited him to just 49 innings in 2010. Still, Bailey has 25-saves in back-to-back seasons, and only 16 men have done that.

Given all that data, I honestly can’t understand how someone who choose to leave Bailey out of their top-10, unless they are going to argue that he is an injury concern. Even then, I’m not buying that argument – Bailey must be a top-10 selection at closer in 2011.

JONATHAN BROXTON

Broxton is a dominating force on the hill. In 2009 he racked up 36 saves, posted a 2.61 ERA and an otherworldly 13.50 K/9 mark. However, he had a couple of rough patches in 2010 that resulted in him losing his closing role to Hong-Chih Kuo in the second half of the season. At the same time, the 295 lbs, 95+ mph throwing Broxton still posted some dominating marks in 2010 including:

10.54 K/9 – Better than Jonathan Papelbon (10.21), Joakim Soria (9.73), Jose Valverde (9.00) and David Aardsma (8.88) to name just a few.

2.61 K/BB – Better than guys like Brian Fuentes (2.35), Chris Perez (2.18) and Brad Lidge (2.17) to name a few.

1.46 GB/FB – Better than Joakim Soria (1.37), Brian Wilson (1.28), Francisco Cordero (1.18) and Heath Bell (1.16) to name but a few.

So why the struggles in 2010?

(1) He walked way too many guys at 4.04 per nine. In each of the previous three seasons that mark was below 3.55.

(2) He was unlucky, at least that’s what I’m calling it. Broxton owns a .328 career BABIP, a mark that he had been at or under in each of the last four seasons. So how do you explain his ’10 mark of .369? Again, I go back to bad luck being the main culprit.

I could see how some of the guys on staff would pass on ranking Broxton in their top-10, I get it. I just hope that everyone holds that view heading into next season so that I can grab Broxton in the middle rounds because I have full confidence in him posting strong totals yet again in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 27, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg scratched from start.

(2) Dan Haren (forearm) checks out OK.

(3) Huston Street injured in BP – scary situation.

(4) Adam Dunn and Nationals at standstill in contract talks?

(5) Gil Meche has shoulder surgery, done for year.

(6) Jason Bay suffering from concussion.

(7) Troy Tulowitzki returns to action.

(8) Nate McLouth sent to minors.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May11, 2010

(1) Uh oh – Brad Lidge has elbow stiffness.

(2) Franklin Morales to DL. Manny Corpas to close for Rockies.

(3) Joe Mauer back catching for Twins.

(4) Nelson Cruz back in lineup on Friday for the Rangers.

(5) Josh Beckett will miss Friday start with back injury.

(6) Ryan Braun out of lineup with sore elbow.

(7) J.J. Hardy to DL with wrist injury.

(8) Braves juggle lineup – Martin Prado and Jason Heyward to bat 1-2.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May10, 2010

(1) Jair Jurrjens felt a pop in hamstring during rehab. Will be sent for an MRI.

(2) Jason Heyward to return on Tuesday from his groin injury.

(3) Huston Street off on minor league rehab stint – should be back in two weeks with the Rockies.

(4) Troy Tulowitzki will avoid DL but he will also likely miss a few days with his quadriceps injury.

(5) Oliver Perez will remain a starter for Mets despite 25 walks in 30 innings.

(6) Josh Beckett will have start pushed back to Friday with Tim Wakefield making a start.

(7) Dallas Braden perfect game anecdotes.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Ups and Downs

Day 2 of the major league season has been a bore (OK, it was Day 3, but the first day only had the Yankees and Red Sox playing, so you know what I mean). A day after all that excitement, the Albert Pujols homers, the 6-inning no-hit bid from Shaun Marcum, and the homer in his first major league at-bat from Jason Heyward, everyone was fired up. Roughly 24 hours later, it’s like your dog died. Major league baseball, in it’s unfailing wisdom, scheduled seven games for the second full day of games, but not a single one was scheduled to start before 7:10 PM EST. That’s right. A day after all of that excitement to kick off the campaign, major league baseball didn’t schedule a single day game, not one. I’m all for making a buck, but seriously MLB, how greedy can you be? Schedule a flipping day game. There is no excuse, none, that there should ever be a day in which at least one game is played during the day. I don’t care about TV rights or gate receipts, baseball was meant to be played during the day under the sun. So get with it MLB – some things are more important than the almighty dollar.

Zack Greinke hurled two run ball over six innings on Monday against the Tigers but wound up with a no decision when the bullpen blew his lead. That isn’t overly surprising for Greinke who was let down frequently last year. Amazingly, Greinke has allowed one or zero earned runs in 19 of his last 34 starts. That’s 56 percent of his starts since the beginning of the 2009 season.

Scott Kazmir was “very surprised” to learn that some shoulder weakness landed him on the DL to start the year. I’m only surprised that Kazmir still has a shoulder.

Casey Kotchman hitting third for the Mariners? Maybe they should have kept Russell Branyan after all.

Tim Lincecum was questioned about his struggles in camp both with velocity and results. After tossing seven shutout innings in dominating the Astros, no one is saying anything today.

Anyone else hate doing drafts on computers? The other day I was doing an AL-only auction and my computer crashed in the middle. I returned to learn that I missed out on Joba Chamberlain and Magglio Ordonez, two players I had been targeting in the middle rounds to get on the cheap. I did land Matt Guerrier though, and for $4, even though I didn’t have him in my queue, so I have no idea how he ended up on my squad. At least the computer didn’t give me Jason Berken for $4.

Jon Rauch has been named the closer with the Twins. He has some experience in the role and is a decent choice to fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. At the same time, he clearly shouldn’t be looked at as someone who has the job locked down. I just wish Pat Neshek was fully healthy (he is coming back from arm surgery though he has looked good so far).

Jose Reyes is still targeting a return to the Mets this weekend after an extended minor league game on Monday. In related news, the Mets are hoping that Oliver Perez can find the strike zone before then.

You gotta feel for the Giants’ Nate Schierholtz. Thought to be the man in right field after biding his time the past few years, he ended up struggling in spring and lost his starting spot to John Bowker who led the club in homers and RBI. Though you may not think things could get worse for Nate they did on Tuesday when the Giants, facing the Astros’ lefty Wandy Rodriguez, decided to go with Andres Torres in right field essentially meaning that Nate is the third right fielder at the moment. Schierholtz has the highest upside of that trio and still profiles as a decent outfield option in NL-only leagues, though I will admit the start to the 2010 season is certainly distressing.

Huston Street got good news on his injured shoulder. It doesn’t look like it will fly off at any point in the near future according to Dr. James Andrews. Street still hopes to return to the Rockies in early May, though who knows when he will be able to reclaim his ninth inning role from Franklin Morales.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Signings, Jan.19, 2010

A whole bushel of players agreed to one year deals with their teams in the past 36 hours. Which signings made sense? Which were bad idea? I’ll give my thoughts on each of the players listed below in today’s Around the Horn piece.

Twins: J.J. Hardy
Marlins: Jorge Cantu, Leo Nunez, Dan Uggla
Rays: Jason Bartlett
Cardinals: Ryan Ludwick
Rockies: Huston Street
Rangers: Josh Hamilton
Brewers: Carlos Gomez, Rickie Weeks
Dodgers: Hong-Chi Kuo, James Loney, George Sherrill

By Ray Flowers

What a Great Monday

Normally on Monday I spend most of the day going over what just occurred on the football field on Sunday. I like football, but everyone knows my passion is baseball. To that end this was no mere Monday of twiddling my thumbs as it was the first day of the Winter Meetings, and with it a torrent of rumors were flying about all day about the men on the diamond (for updates on all that is baseball – including potential player movement – check in with the BaseballGuys Twitter Page). Here are some of my thoughts on the highlights of the day.

Either the Mets or Yankees have seemingly been involved in every rumor, though as of this writing the only official move either team has made is the Yankees decision to trade Brian Bruney to the Nationals for a player to be named later (you’ll be able to read my thoughts on the deal at Fanball.com on Tuesday, so look for the piece then)

The Denver Post is reporting that the Rockies have offered a multi-year deal to infielder Clint Barmes (they also offered long-term deals to Chris Iannetta and Huston Street). I guess the Rockies didn’t read my review of Barmes in a recent Five Questions piece.

Ryan Doumit has had his name in the news of late as a handful of teams are interested in trading for the catcher. Given that he is owned about $8.5 million the next two years it’s no surprise that team’s are interested in acquiring his services giving his ability to be a difference maker on offense.

Edwin Jackson continues to have his name bandied about as a potential mover at the meetings. By the time you read this he might already be on the move. The latest rumor has both the D’backs and the Mariners as his most ardent pursuers. You can my thoughts about the hurler in Breaking Down: Edwin Jackson.

This is one rumor that I haven’t seen floated, but it makes total sense to me. The Giants, in desperate need of some pop, could target Adam LaRoche who wasn’t offered arbitration by the Braves making him a free agent. LaRoche would be able to provide his 25-HR pop while playing strong defense at first which would allow Pablo Sandoval to shift back to third base, the clubs desired location for him. LaRoche could likely be had at a reasonable price, and he likely wouldn’t have much problem lofting balls into SF Bay – do you think?

Reports suggest that Rafael Soriano might accept the Braves offer of arbitration. First, I think this is complete malarkey. Why would Soriano want to go to arbitration and sign a one year deal with his history of arm troubles? He’d be wise to sign a multi-year deal. Personally, I think this is just a negotiating ploy to scare teams into offering him more money. Second, the Braves would be extremely unhappy if Soriano accepted arbitration because (1) they wouldn’t receive draft picks to replace those they lost when they signed Billy Wager and (2) they didn’t give Wagner $7 million to split the ninth inning with Soriano. For more on Wagner give Breaking Down: Billy Wagner a read.

In closing, I’d like to invite everyone to join my Twitter following (you can access it above). While I resisted the whole Twitter phenomena for a while, I’m now posting a plenty. However, this immediate gratification cycle we are all living on now has led to some problems in accuracy. As an example, Edwin Jackson was traded to the Mets midday on Monday, that is until the reports came out that the original report had no basis in reality. Technology is fantastic, and who doesn’t want to know about your teams latest move a minute after it’s done, but the environment today is one in which everyone is pushing to break the stories, and as such there are occasions when inaccurate information is promulgated across the web (a shock I know). Don’t believe everything you read the minute you read it, and in fact, you might take up the old adage of needing two sources before blindly accepting any reported deal. Either that or just grab on to a source you trust like BaseballGuys for your baseball information.

By Ray Flowers

Playoff Baseball: NLCS

I hate the Dodgers. Always have, always will. In fact, if I met the woman of my dreams, and I mean she was perfect, yet her one flaw was that she was a Dodgers fan — I don’t know if it would work out. I loathe that team, have since I was old enough to understand baseball, and as a lifetime Giants fan that will never, ever change. Therefore, it pained me to watch the Dodgers/Phillies game.

Pedro Martinez was flat out dealing in Game 2 of the NLCS as he held his former team, the Dodgers, to a mere two hits in seven innings of scoreless work. He may barely be able to hit 90 mph on the radar gun, but that man has a better understanding of how to pitch than about 95 percent of the men out there. Too bad the bullpen blew his effort in the eighth inning when manager Charlie Manuel called on five different arms to record three outs which they did but only after they allowed three hits, two walks and two runs. I know I bag on Manuel all the time, but really, how couldn’t I? Five pitchers in one inning? Talk about over managing.

Vincente Padilla looked great today holding the Phillies to four hits and one run over his 7.1 innings to help the Dodgers even up the series with the Phillies. Still, I can’t be the only one who found it odd that the TBS announcers kept talking about him like he was the second coming of Don Drysdale. His stuff can certainly allow him to dominate, but come on now.

Anyone else looking forward to the weekend? For some reason it just seemed like this week would never end. Kind of reminds me of a horror movie with Michael Myers of Halloween fame. Come to think of it, it’s time to pull out the Original Halloween, the one from the late 70′s done by John Carpenter, and give it my yearly viewing. If you haven’t see it you must – for my money it’s the best horror film ever made, right up there with Psycho and the original Texas Chainsaw Massacre.

The day after my Stephen Jackson piece, I’m still 100 percent what I wrote in Captain Jack? I Think Not.

I’m already missing daily baseball (I love the playoffs, but only one or two games a day just doesn’t cut it for me). Something about the rhythm of the game just gets to me. The worst part is opening up the paper each day, yes I still walk outside in my slippers into the cold morning air to pick up an actual paper, and not seeing box scores. As a true fan of baseball, is there another way to more closely connect with the game than to pour through copious amounts of box scores? Not only does it take me back to my youth and discussions with my father about who was better than who, it just gives me something to do when I’m eating Wheaties for breakfast. I have to pause while I wipe a tear away.

Playoff Bullpens

I want to thank John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle for pointing out the following facts. Mr. Shea noted that in the playoffs, at least this season, teams have only been as strong as their closers. Through the first round of the playoffs, the stark contrast between the have’s and the have not’s is pretty astounding.

During the regular season, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street and Ryan Franklin had a save conversion rate of 90 percent as each man recorded at least 35 saves. How did they do in the playoffs? They were dreadful: 0-4, 10.13 ERA, 3.25 WHIP with four blown saves in just eight innings of work. Putrid isn’t a strong enough word. Do in no small part to each man’s failures, they are all sitting at home eating Doritos and drinking Red Bull right now.

How did the four closers on the winning teams do? How about a 100 percent conversion rate on saves with a 0.87 ERA in 10.1 innings.

Pretty easy to say which “position” was the most valuable one in the first round of the playoffs. Makes me long for the days when men were men and they actually pitched a full nine innings.

By Ray Flowers

A Wonderful Wednesday

In today’s The Day in Baseball entry, I’ll highlight the plight of an all-time great, alert you to a guy who has been crazy hot of late, and point out a decision, about four months in coming, that might actually, finally, end up coming to fruition.

Did you catch Marlon Byrd’s act over the past two days? In case you didn’t, let me review it for you. Byrd played in three games, went deep twice, knocked in seven runners and produced nine hits. Yeah, he is pretty much en fuego right now.

If you missed it, Adam Jones’ season is over as he was transferred to the 60-day DL with a sprained ankle. It shouldn’t require surgery, or be a long term issue, but the team realized that he would likely need something like three weeks to recover, and that would basically take them to the end of the year (plus, putting him on the 60-day DL allows the club to add another player to the roster). As a result of the injury Jones falls just short of his first 20 homer season, he finishes with 19 long balls, though a .277-19-70-83-10 season certainly isn’t anything to be upset about in his second full season.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Tim Lincecum return to the hill this weekend. He was in the dugout on Tuesday after being forced to miss the start because of a sore lower back, and he was caught smiling and moving around fairly well. As for the Giants offense, there is no word when it might be back in action. In nine games in September the G-men have recorded more than three runs just twice. Pathetic.

Could it finally be happening? Could The World’s Biggest Idiot, aka Phillies’ manager Charlie Manuel, finally be conceding that he is destroying the moral of his club by continuing to throw Brad Lidge out there in the ninth inning? “…I want to be loyal to him and things like that, but at the same time, like I told him last night, winning the game is the first priority.” Ryan Madson owners can rejoice. It looks like you might get a handful of saves out of the man you have held on to for months waiting for the Phillies to do the right thing. Of course, Brett Myers could end up swooping in to pick up a few saves chances as well, so perhaps Madson owners shouldn’t be too excited after all.

Albert Pujols hit two bombs today and is just three homers short of his first 50 season. Just spit balling here, but is it possible that 20 years from now we will be talking about Pujols as the greatest “steroid free” home run hitter of all-time? Let’s play a little game of what if. (1) Pujols is just 29 years old. (2) In nine seasons he has never hit fewer than 32 home runs in a season. (3) He has averaged 40 home runs a season over his nine year career. (4) If Pujols plays another 10 years while averaging 35 homers a season he will end up with something along the lines of 720 home runs. That would still leave him behind Hank Aaron and his 755 home runs. Just goes to show you how amazingly consistent that Mr. Aaron was in his career.

Huston Street continues to make progress with that sore biceps muscle, but the latest word out of Colorado is that he still isn’t likely to return to action this week as previously hoped. In his place, the Rockies will continue to go with Franklin Morales who has converted 5-straight save chances in his last five appearances during which time he has allowed only five base runners and not a single run. Overall Morales has a 2.60 ERA, a.1.13 WHIP and 36 Ks in 34.2 ABs, and that’s pretty darn good no matter where you are pitching.

Trivia Question: How many straight seasons has Braden Looper won at least 11 games? The answer is three – each of his seasons as a starter. Do you know how many NL hurlers have won at least 11 games each of the past three seasons if we include this season? Try seven (including Lopper): Jamie Moyer, Derek Lowe, Adam Wainwright, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis and Chad Billingsley.

By Ray Flowers