Back in the Saddle

For those of you that missed it, The Oracle spent three days in the hospital with a dastardly case of the flu. He’s still not even close to 100 percent, but he’s going to do his best to get back on it today. Let’s see how he does.

Tony Cingrani has shocked me with his success thus far (1.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14.00 K//9, 7.00 K/BB). I’m still not sold, which I know sounds crazy given his success. However, he cannot keep up the K-rate. He cannot keep up the walk rate (2.00 per nine). He cannot continue to hold batters to a .188 average. He cannot continue to have a BABIP of .278 with a 24 percent line drive rate. He’s also still throwing his fastball 81 percent of the time. Deal him at his apex before he pulls a Jose Fernandez (I dealt Cingrani for Chris Sale in one of my leagues – a steal if you ask me). By the way, Johnny Cueto will make his first minor league start Friday as he works his way back from a lat issue. He’s likely about two weeks away. As for Fernandez, I issued my warnings when he made the big league club. He’s 20 years old and entered the season without a single outing above High-A ball. What the heck were you expecting from him? Given those two facts, and those two alone, you should be really pleased with his five outings thus far that have led to a 8.63 K/9 mark and 1.29 WHIP. I know you aren’t but that’s your fault for having too high of expectations.

Carl Crawford will sit out Wednesday and Thursday (a day off) to nurse his tender hamstring. After a whopper of a start his production has slowed drastically, but his slash line is still elite. Seriously. Take a look: .308/.388/.516. He has a better average than Carlos Gonzalez. He has a better OBP than Paul Goldschmidt (.387). He has a better SLG than Buster Posey (.488). See what I mean?

Starling Marte has been killing it. Just look at his .327 average and .395 OBP. However, there is a real downside. The seven steals are fantastic, as is the batting average, but here comes the rug being pulled out. (1) He’s on pace for less than 15 homers. OK, you can live with that given the rest of his performance. (2) He’s on pace for about 60 RBIs. OK, you can also live with that given his overall work. (3) He’s taken seven walks in 26 games. While that is better than his pace last year of eight walks in 47 games, it’s still awful. (4) His strikeout rate has dipped from 27.5 percent last year to 22 percent this season, but neither number is great. When combined with his terribly low walk rate his 0.27 BB/K ratio this season is still dreadful (the big league average is about 0.45). The highest batting average last season by any player in baseball with a mark of 0.27 or less was .293 by Alcides Escobar. I doubt Marte will hit even that well given the stage of development he is currently at (also note that Escobar hit .254 in 2012, tis the nature of players who show no patience and strike zone judgement).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Hyun-Jin Ryu had 12 punchouts Tuesday night giving him 10.99 K/9 this season. NO ONE, not a single person in baseball, thought he was going to do that. I’m going to agree with everyone and side with this being a random run of greatness. I’m still thinking that there will be a pullback in the K-department. Been impressed by his efforts this season no doubt, but over his head is he (that was Yoda speak for those of you who missed it).

Way too early to draw any conclusions, but Mike Trout is hitting .261 with a .766 OPS. He’s on pace for about 12 homers, 95 RBIs, 90 runs and 25 steals. Since September 1st of last season he’s hit .276 with a .368 OBP and .467 SLG over the course of 56 games. He’s also hit only seven homers while stealing 11 bases.

Chien-Ming Wang will stay with the Yankees organization. Does anyone care? Maybe the Yankees do, but the last time he pitched 100 innings in the big leagues was 2007.

Player Profile: Hyun-Jin Ryu

Normally in my Player Profile series I like to write about players who are being over drafted because of unwarranted hype, or I focus on players that can be hidden gems of production because people are underestimating their value. Today I’ll do something different. I’ll write up a player who has never thrown an official inning as a professional baseball player in North America…

WHO AM I?

Hyun-Jin Ryu is a 25 year old left-handed hurler from Korea (he’ll be 26 on March 25th). The Dodgers believe that he’s a viable option for their starting rotation, and backing up their belief they shelled out a six year deal for $36 million to attain his services. The Dodgers also had to pay just over $25 million with the posting fee to obtain the rights to sign Ryu, so they’ve invested nearly $62 million dollars in the guy for the next six years. So who is this Ryu and why did the Dodgers spend so much money to acquire a guy who looks an awful lot like a fourth starter?

CAREER ABROAD

Ryu started his professional career in the Korean Baseball Organization in 2006. He was excellent going 18-6 with a 2.23 ERA and 204 punchouts in 201.2 innings and he became the first player to win ROY and MVP in the same season. He then tossed another 200+ innings while winning 17 games with 178 Ks in his second season. In 2008 Ryu competed in the Beijing Olympics including throwing 8.1 innings in the Gold Medal winning game for South Korea. On the downside, Ryu failed to toss 200-innings each season from 2008-2012, but he was an effective arm throughout. Here are his career KBO numbers (he was an All-Star every one of his seven seasons):

98-52, 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.78 K/9, 3.23 K/BB ratio over 1,269 innings
If a pitcher posts those numbers in the big leagues we have a name for him – it’s Adam Wainwright. But those numbers were compiled in the KBO, hardly a league that offers up the same level of competition as major league baseball. That leaves open the question of how his skills will translate to the majors.

* Ryu had Tommy John surgery while he was in high school, so hopefully we won’t have to be worrying about his elbow blowing up, though as we have seen pitchers sometimes do need to have the procedure done twice (think Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria).

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

SCOUTING REPORT

Ryu throws his fastball anywhere from 88-92 mph. He also throws an assortment of slow, and slower, off speed pitches. Given his build, he’s not going to be on the cover of Muscle & Fitness anytime soon, and manager Don Mattingly likened him to David Wells (he’s 6’2” and reported to camp weighing a whopping 255 lbs. which raised some eyebrows, especially when he was having trouble with some of the conditioning work – more on that below). It should also be noted that the baseball is a bit slicker in North America, so that will take some time to get acclimated, and Sandy Koufax worked with Ryu a bit on alternating the grip on his curve ball a bit to help with the transition.

2013 OUTLOOK

The Dodgers have a bunch of options than can turn to in their rotation. Obviously they didn’t lavish millions on Ryu to use him out of the pen, or to send him to the minors, so you have to think he’s going to be part of the mix. My best guess on how the rotation is going to play out follows.

The Locks
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Josh Beckett

Almost Certainly In
Hyun-Jin Ryu

Left to Battle for the 5th Spot
Ted Lilly (who I wrote about in Rounding the Bases)
Chad Billingsley
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang

Obviously the Dodgers have a bounty of arms, and it’s very likely that once they settle on the unit that a couple of these arms will be dealt to shore up other spots on the club.

If I had to guess what type of effort Ryu will offer this season I’d say that he’s appropriately slotted as the 4th starter for the Dodgers. It remains to be seen how Ryu will adapt to American culture, the minor change with the ball and the change in training methods (he famously had some issues with his first training session in camp as he struggled to complete his work. “I realized today that in America, when they do long-distance running, they run really fast,” he said.). There is also the fact that he hasn’t thrown 200 innings since the 2007 season. I’d think that Paul Maholm‘s 2012 effort (13-11, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 140 Ks) would be the high water mark for what your expectations should be for Ryu this year, but even that is likely being far too rosie in the old prediction department. I’d let someone else draft Ryu. It would be a big time shock if he emerged as an All-Star caliber player this season so he’s best left for the reserve rounds in mixed leagues. Don’t reach.

 

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

 

By Ray Flowers