Player Profile: Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm‘s name likely elicits, let’s see, a yawn? Before you lock that thought into your head as to what your reaction should be when the Braves’ lefties name as mentioned remember this:

Maholm had a better ERA than Homer Bailey, Chris Capuano, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Ian Kennedy in 2012.

Maholm had a better WHIP than Ryan Vogelsong, A.J. Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Lance Lynn, Tommy Hanson and Tim Lincecum in 2012.

Maholm had more wins than Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Capuano, Roy Halladay, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley and Jeff Samardzija.

Do I have your attention yet?

Paul Maholm isn’t exciting, I will give you that. Even with all of the above data the fact of the matter is that Maholm won 13 games, had a 3.67 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but it’s not like they will lead to a fantasy championship. However, it should be noted that numbers like those, from a reserve round selection or a waiver-wire pick up, are special numbers. Are you better off spending $23 on Johnny Cueto or $3 on Paul Maholm on draft day? Obviously Cueto is a better pitcher and the one you need more to win a championship, but hopefully you see the point – Maholm is the better value add based on his draft day cost. If you can augment an expensive Cueto with a cheap as all get out Maholm, then you’ve got something. In terms of return on investment, Maholm was one of the best bargains in baseball in 2012. Can he be so again in 2013?

On the bump Maholm has been very consistent the past two seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings. In 2011 he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 innings. However, like many of the other hurlers I’ve been reviewing, it’s best to realize what Maholm is – he’s a rotation filler who won’t hurt you. Why do I say that? For some reason he can’t seem to consistently win games. Maholm owns a 66-84 career record, and even the past two years when he has pitched so well he’s gone 19-25. Wins-loses are of course a bad way to judge pitchers performances, I’m the first to admit that, but in the fantasy game they are one of the four categories that matter to starting hurlers. I should also point out that in four of the past five seasons, despite at least 26 starts each year (more than 30 in four of them), that Paul failed to reach double-digits in wins. For some reason he’s just not able to consistently post wins.

The next issue with Maholm is that he lacks a strikeout pitch. For his career Maholm owns a poor 5.71 K/9 mark, and that fact alone removes him from receiving my stamp of approval. Still, it is somewhat heartening to see that he’s coming off a career best mark of 6.67, though it should be noted that the mark is 0.61 better than ever before (back in 2008). Maholm isn’t going to turn into a league average K arm, just the way it is. Maholm does keep the walks in check, at least he has that going for him, with a BB/9 mark of 2.80 or lower in five of the past six years.

One thing that Maholm does well, very well, is induce grounders. It’s why he can be so effective without dominating hitters. Maholm’s GB-rate has been at least 49.9 percent every season of his career, and his worst GB/FB ratio for a season is a still impressive 1.69. Consequently he’s not exactly a homer magnet as his HR/9 mark has been under one each of the past five years.

Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around. He’s also a pitcher who could see his performance go down since he lacks elite skills, but not likely up. That’s why he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

Friday June 22 7pm EST – 2012 MLB All Star Joust.

This contest has been running for the past six weeks and Jousters have been playing every day to see who will qualify. If you were the winner of a $1 Page Thomas or $2 Squire Williams All Star Joust Qualifier, then you have earned a seat in the All Star Joust. The winner of All Star Joust will receive $1500 CASH plus 2 tickets to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th.

$2,000 MLB All Star Joust Freeroll
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Please check the list of Qualifiers to see if you are in All Star Joust

$1,000 King James “BEAT MOBYDICKLER” MLB Tournament
- 1st place $400 and Tournament Badge
- Winner gets seat in $15,000 Super Joust III in September
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To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link and look for the “Crown” icon along with “Super Joust Qualifier” in the contest line.

Daily Joust – Wk 10: Did We Learn Anything?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Clay Buchholz (+112, $339,000 in Daily JoustSalary)
He’s got a 5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and the last time he was worth anything in the fantasy game was 2010. Still, the seeds of improvement are here. Over his last three starts he has allowed four runs and four of the last five times out he’s allowed two or fewer runs. A big key? He’s reigned in the walks with only four in his last three starts. Still, I’m not a huge fan. I just don’t like his overall game.

Jonny Gomes (+24, $79K)
The guy has power. He has five homers this year in 107 at-bats, and dating back to last season he has gone deep 19 times in 418 at-bats. At the same time he has hit .211 in that time – he’s hitting .215 this year – though he does have a rather impressive .333 OBP given his lowly average. He’s nothing more than a depth option in AL-only leagues since he’s really not a very good hitter against right-handed pitching.

Ian Kennedy (+97, $329K)
Kennedy has allowed a total of one run in his last two starts as he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13.2 innings. Kennedy was never going to match his performance from last year (21-4 record). Wasn’t gonna happen. Still, his K/9 rate of 8.44 is up from last season (8.03) while his BB/9 rate is the same at 2.26. Honestly though, he’s pitched pretty similar to what he offered last year (xFIP was 3.50 last year, this year it’s 3.86).

Miguel Montero (+19, $84K)
Montero has two homers and seven RBI over his last five games signaling that perhaps he is finally on the cusp of returning to the hitter everyone thought they were drafting this year. A season after hitting .282 with 18 homers and 86 RBI, Montero’s power is way down (four HR) while his average is also lagging (.249). I still believe he could be the hitter he was last year the rest of the way. Time will tell.

Wei-Yin Chen (+89, $264K)
He’s pitched well in his first 11 big league starts with a 3.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Still, his K/BB is 2.32. His GB/FB is 0.90. His BABIP is .283. His HR/9 is 0.94. The end result? That’s a whole lot of league average numbers isn’t it?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Dexter Fowler (-25, $91K)
Hitting .281 with a .382 OBP, people are starting to get a wee bit nervous with Fowler after 9-games without a homer and nine Ks in his last four games. Perspective people. Has he been cold for a week? For sure. Was he insanely hot the week before? You know this. He’s on pace for a 20 homers, 75 RBI, 90 run, 15 SB season. Hold fast.

Mike Moustakas (-19, $75K)
Hitting .273 with a .336 OBP, Moose has been solid but not great. The nine homers and 28 RBI put him on pace to be a top level option at third base in the power department, but he’s also hit only one homer in 10 games, and in 54 at-bats against lefties he has a .583 OPS. Still has a ways to go, but a solid start.

Ivan Nova (-74, $219K)
He’s 8-2 and he has a rather amazing, for him, 69 Ks in 77.2 innings (his 8.00 K/9 mark is more than two an a half batters above his career rate entering the year). He’s also allowed just one run in 15 innings over his last two starts. At the same time he’s got a 4.64 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and he’s allowed five or more earned runs in five of his last nine starts and his ground ball rate is on the decline (52 percent his first two seasons down to 47 percent). Tread carefully.

Bud Norris (-49, $182K)
On May 25th Norris had a 3.14 ERA. Now? That number is 4.65 as he has been blown up for 16 runs over his last three starts (12.1 innings). Obviously he’s struggling to get batters out at the moment, but he’s also struck out 18 batters in that time so he’s still providing some value. He’s likely not a 3.14 ERA guy, but I also don’t think he’s a 4.65 guy either.

Buster Posey (-20, $75K)
Hitting .290 with a .810 OPS, Posey is just about back to the hitter he was in 2010 when he took the Bay Area by storm. Still, that’s if we look at his overall game because after hitting .353 in April he’s hit a mere .256. He’s a legit .290 hitter though, so don’t expect his average to fall much further.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 6: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ryan Dempster (+14, $357K in DailyJoust salary)
Working around an injury, Dempster has taken the hill five times this year with spectacular results: 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and never allowing more than two runs in a start. He’s also posted a 3.60 K/BB ratio while striking out 36 batters in 35.1 innings. You really can’t pitch much better than he has to this point. The only negative is the anemic offensive support that he has received as he’s failed to win a game, again, despite only allowing more than one run one time (he allowed two runs to the Brewers). Shame on you Cubs.

Christian Friedrich (+77, $228K)
Was recalled to take the spot of Guillermo Moscoso in the Rockies rotation and he had a solid first start allowing two runs, only one earned, over six innings against the Padres. However, the start was against the Padres, and it was at Petco, so that makes profiling the effort difficult. This left hander has had a rough couple of years after once being regarded as one of the better lefty pitching prospects in the game. Last season he went 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA at Double-A, so it would be wise to be very wary of him turning into Lance Lynn anytime soon.

Jimmy Rollins (+11, $72K)
No player on the Phils has struggled worse than Rollins with Howard-Utley out of the mix. Hitting just .230 with one homer the only thing keeping Rollins afloat is his seven steals. For a guy with a putrid .275 OBP his 17 runs scored in 35 games isn’t bad, and it’s not like he’s going to be losing any playing time, but this has still been a painfully slow start to the year. Just a season removed from 16 homers, 30 steals and 87 runs scored, did Rollins get “old” overnight? I’m betting he didn’t.

Yovani Gallardo (+48, $243K)
After that shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (8 ER in 2.0 IP) Gallardo, as he always does, rebounded in his last two outings to allow a total of five runs while striking out 12 batters in 12 innings. In one of the odder starts to a season of any arm out there, if you remove his two starts against the Cardinals – 14 ERA in 5.2 innings – here are his numbers from his other five starts: 2.45 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP. Just don’t pitch him when he faces the Cards and you would appear to be fine.

Jake Westbrook (+52, $323K)
We’ve seen plenty of pitchers have their career revived while pitching in St. Louis, so maybe Westbrook is the next arm in that line to do so. His 1.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through six starts are special, especially for a guy with carer marks of 4.27 and 1.39. Only once in six starts has he failed to produce a quality start, and he wasn’t awful in that outing allowing four runs. Through 41 innings he has a solid 2.70 K/BB ratio, but it’s one full batter above his career rate, while his 5.93 K/9 mark is also a batter above his carer norm. Pitchers don’t usually post career bests in those numbers in their 12th big league season. Solid but unspectacular, he has nowhere to go but down from here.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Homer Bailey (-47, $162)
Blessed with a big arm, Bailey simply cannot form any type of consistency. A run of 4-straight quality starts was broken up by a stinker against the Brewers as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings. He’s also been taken deep six times in six starts helping to explain his 4.93 ERA. His current K/BB rate of 1.85 points to just how middling a performer he continues to be (over at Fleaflicker he is only owned in seven percent of leagues). It certainly doesn’t seem like his rotation spot is in serious jeopardy, but at some point the Reds are going to need to see some improvement, or at least some consistency.

Asdrubal Cabrera (-19, $96K)
Hitting .315 on the season would be a tremendous accomplishment for a guy who owns a .283 career mark. However, Cabrera was hitting .356 literally a week ago so he’s clearly slumped a wee bit. Asdrubal one one RBI in his last seven games, and he has just three homers and two steals on the season. Where is the guy that went 25/17 last year? He’s just where I said he would be in his Player Profile – he’s gone.

Ross Detwiler (-52, $247K)
Ross has made six starts, has failed to allow more than three runs in an outing, owns a 2.10 ERA an a 1.02 WHIP through 34.1 innings. It’s impossible to find any fault with his efforts so far this year. As I’ve said before he doesn’t have the underlying skills to support this hot start, but he is generating a ground ball rate of 54 percent with 6.55 K’s per nine, so maybe the landing will be a soft one even when the regression comes. So maybe he isn’t going to win the Cy Young award this season but he’s still had a wonderful start to the season.

Dan Haren (-80, $227K)
If his current owner is panicking after he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start, or because he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, now is the time to pounce. Haren is sporting a 7.33 K/9 mark, slightly better than last season, and he’s currently walking a mere 1.88 batters per nine innings (career 1.89). He’s also been saddled with a .323 BABIP which might continue, but at the same time he’s never had a mark above .311 for a season and owns a career mark of .290. I’m also pretty confident he won’t end the year with a 22.9 percent line drive rate which would be a career worst. Given time to normalize Haren should do just that.

Ian Kennedy (-36, $229K)
He was never going to match last season, so put that out of your head (see his Player Profile). Still, prior to giving up six runs in his last outing, Kennedy had a 3.23 ERA through six starts showing that’s he’s still darn likely to be a successful arm. Through seven outings Kennedy owns an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio and his GB/FB, HR/F and line drive rates are all pretty darn similar to last season, so just pass on from the bad outing the last time he took the hill and realize this is still one fine fantasy option.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: H2H Matchup

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray are ready to find out who is the best host on the Fantasy Beat! They discuss the 16 team Mixed 5×5 Head to Head League they are both in and just drafted. Justin and Trevor compare their opening day rosters to see who will have an edge entering the season.

Listen to the Audio.

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy tied for the NL lead last year with 21 victories. You know that I’m not a huge fan of win-loss records when it comes to defining a pitcher, but when a guy goes 21-4 – Clayton Kershaw went 21-5 – you have to pay attention. So why is it that some fantasy baseball players are taking Daniel Hudson before they look Ian Kennedy’s way  at the draft table in 2012? That’s a very good question. Perhaps they think, as I will argue, that Kennedy has little chance of replicating his 2011 effort.

Some facts about Kennedy’s 2011 season.

Kennedy tied for the NL lead in wins.

Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA. Only seven pitchers in the NL bettered that mark.

Kennedy struck out 198 batters. Only seven NL pitchers had more.

Kennedy posted a 1.08 WHIP. Only five NL hurlers had a better mark.

Kennedy had a .227 BAA. Only four NL hurlers were tougher to hit.

Kennedy tossed 222 innings. Only four NL hurlers threw more innings.

All of that certainly makes Kennedy seem like an elite hurler, does it not?

The strikeouts are legit. Over the last two years his K/9 mark has been 7.79 and 8.03. When a pitcher does that in more than 400-innings I’m buying it.
One of the main keys to his surge from solid to dominating last year was the fact that he stopped beating himself. Over his first 253.2 big league innings he walked 3.80 batters per nine innings, about a half batter above the big league average. Last year he chopped that number down like a lumberjack whacking weeds as his BB/9 mark shrank to 2.23. It’s hard to know if we should trust his work last season completely, an in truth, I don’t. Pitchers just don’t cut a batter from their walk rate overnight (his rate was 3.25 in 2010). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give back some of those gains. Moreover, I’d feel more comfortable expecting a BB/9 mark closer to his 2010 rate than his mark from 2011.

Kennedy is as run of the mill as it gets when we talk about GB/FB ratios. In fact, he’s never posted a league average mark of 1.10 (last year’s 0.98 rate was a career best). I will give Kennedy credit for cutting the fly ball rate a bit last year, he was three percentage points below his career norm, but unfortunately most of those batted balls ended up as line drives instead of ground balls. If he keeps that trend up in 2012 you’d have to think he would allow more hits than he did last season. In addition, his left on base percentage of 79.2 percent was huge (it was the 9th highest mark in baseball). It was four percent better than his rate from 2010 and about nine percentage points clear of the league average. That doesn’t speak to a repeat effort in the ERA column. Neither does his xFIP which places his ERA last season at 3.50. All of this data paints a pitcher who had a perfect storm last season which helped to maximize hie performance.

What do I think about Kennedy? I think he will be a solid pitcher in 2012. As I wrote above, the strikeouts are legit, an if he stays healthy long enough to toss 200-innings he’ll be a benefit in that category. I worry about his ability to keep his ratios as low as they were last season given the drastic improvement he made in the walk column, the fact that his LOB% was so high and that his GB/FB ratio was so mediocre. If you’re drafting Kennedy in 2012 make sure your expectations are reasonable. If you roster him thinking he will be a top-30 starter you have a good chance that your expectations will be met. If you think he’s a top-15 arm you’ll more than likely end up a bit disappointed in the Diamondbacks’ righty.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Misses

In my last column I broke down my greatest “hits” of starting pitchers, those that I identified and suggested you add to your stable of hurlers for the 2011 season who succeeded. Today I’ll ding myself by pointing out the hurlers that failed to deliver based on my personal expectations.

For the “hits” see PART I.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

MISSES

Josh Johnson (#8): Shoulder woes limited Johnson to just nine starts and 60.1 innings in 2011. He was spectacular when on the hill with a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, not to mention 56 Ks in 60.1 innings, but his future is cloudy as he simply cannot be counted on to take the hill every five games.

Roy Oswalt (#13): Back woes limited him to his worst season, possibly ever. He won only nine games against 10 loses, lasted just 139 innings (his lowest total since 2003), and saw his K/9 dip to 6.02 (the worst mark of his career). He wasn’t horrible with a 3.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he was drafted to be a strong #2 hurler, not a depth play.

Chad Billingsley (#18): It’s time to give up on him becoming an elite pitcher, but he should still be better than he was this season. Chad produced a five year low with 11 victories, a career worst 4.21 ERA, a 5-year worst in K/9 (7.28) and a 5-year high in BB/9 (4.02). Simply put, he wasn’t very good, but he’s still only 27 years old and did toss 188 innings, his fourth straight year hitting that mark.

Francisco Liriano (#23): He will never be the pitcher he was before he blew his arm out, so put that thought out of your head as he’s lost three mph off his fastball since his heyday. As a result, his K/9 fell a batter and a half from his career rate, down to 7.50 per nine, and he was simply dreadful at throwing strikes walking 5.02 batters per nine innings. That’s just shameful.

Ryan Dempster (#25): The good – he threw more than 200 innings with at least 170 K’s for a fourth straight season. The bad – his ERA was awful at 4.80 and his WHIP wasn’t much better at 1.45. A lot of that has to do with his horrible start to the year, though his 3.70 xFIP was actually right in line with his previous three seasons (3.69, 3.76 and 3.74). He wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be.

Ricky Nolasco (#29): I give up. The guy has tantalizing skills including 4-straight years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.36, and his xFIP keeps saying that his ERA should be well below where it always is (5.06, 4.51 and 4.67 the last three years). I’m still gonna draft him late in 2012, but only at a point where I know he’ll give me value versus at a level that I hope he will be able to live up to.

Brett Anderson (#30): Couldn’t help this one as there was no way to predict that he would need Tommy John surgery in July. He ended the year 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (#31): He still owns hellacious stuff, see his 9.06 K/9 mark, but he rarely seems to know where it is going (see his ghastly 5.86 BB/9 mark). It’s as simple as this; until he starts throwing strikes he’s simply not someone that you can trust, at all.

John Lackey (#42): Seems like everything that could go wrong with the Boston righty did in 2011. He won 12 games, his 9th straight season of double-digits, but he threw a nine year low of 160 innings. The Sox may not have been complaining though given his 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Amazingly, his K/9 has gone down each of the last six years while his BB/9 has gone up each of the last four.

Ian Kennedy (#55): No one predicted this effort. I’ll tip my hat to the guy as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 Ks. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of repeating that effort, but he was dynamite in 2011.

Jake Peavy (#56): I thought putting him in the second half of the top-100 was being fair. Turns out, it wasn’t. Peavy only lasted 111.2 innings, posted an abysmal 4.92 ERA, and he has serious questions about whether or not he will ever be able to even take the ball 30 times a year again.

Michael Pineda (#95): Here is my quote, and my reasoning as to why he was so low in my original rankings. “I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.” I totally missed the time line which is why my ranking of him was so off.

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

By Ray Flowers

Labor Day

It’s Labor Day, so I hope all of you are pulling back on a beer, sitting poolside, and just enjoying life while I soldier on at the keyboard (I know, I’m, such a martyr aren’t I?).

Franklin Gutierrez is likely done for the year with a strained oblique muscle. He’s been bad for so long that you may have forgotten that he avereged 16 homers, 67 RBI, 73 runs and 21 steals the past two years. Well, he hit one homer, knocked in 19 runners, scored 26 times and stole 13 bases in 92 games for the Mariners this season. Yeah, that qualifies as a massive letdown. Don’t get me started on his teammate Chone Figgins (.188-1-15-24-11).

Remeber that story about Josh Hamilton not being able to see during the day time because he had light colored eyes (What’s on Tap)? Well, Hamilton has apparently settled on a routine of drops and sunglasses to help cure his woes, and it’s showing as he has hit .342 in day games since the All-Star break. I still find this story so fascinating. Is he really the only player in baseball with light colored eyes? I’m no optomitrist, but still.

I bet you might be unware of this fact but Aaron Hill is finally hitting. I know, shocking to think isn’t it? Not only has he hit .381 since he joined the surging D’backs he’s also been smoking hot of late going 11-for-22. That’s a .500 average folks. It’s not time to put behind him all the all struggles he’s shown the past two years, but he’s finally starting to perform like the All-Star level second baseman that he has shown himself to be previously.

Speaking of hot bats, have you been keeping an eye on Carlos Lee? Of course you haven’t, and why would you since he plays for the Astros. However, if you haven’t checked lately you will have missed the fact that he’s  hit, get this, .457 the past two weeks. His current hot streak has pushed him up to a pace that would nedt hit a line of .277-16-89. That’s not great production by any means, but it’s a usuable line in deep mixed leagues.

Cliff Pennington the last two weeks – .359 with 15 RBI. One word for that – wow.

Grady Sizemore has been activated from the DL. He’s hitting .237 without a single steal in 61 games this season. Remember back when he was a 30/30 performer in 2008 as he was finishing up a 4-year run of at least 22 homers, 76 RBI, 101 runs and 22 steals?

Example 1,873,279 of why being a major league pitcher isn’t always fair. Ian Kennedy leads the NL with an 18-4 record while teammate Daniel Hudson is 15-9. Those two D’back hurlers have ERAs of 2.96 and 3.53, while their WHIPs are 1.12 and 1.22. Tim Lincecum is 12-12 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while Matt Cain is 11-9 with a 2.85 ERA an a 1.07 WHIP. Speaking of poor records, Lincecum, Cain, Ryan Vogelsong (2.62) and Madison Bumgarner (3.43) are all in the top-16 in the NL in ERA (if you remove MadBum the other trio of Giants hurlers are all in the top-8). That foursome has combined to go 42-39 for the sinking Giants.

by Ray Flowers

Worth Pointing Out

Beyonce is pregnant. Add her to the list of starlets who have jumped on the bandwagon of babies of late. Is it just me or does it seem like everyone but me, who is over 25 that is, has kids? I feel like an outsider when I walk down the street. Strollers, baby wipes, crying/screaming kids… I mean, who doesn’t want that?

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

Quick, what team does Robert Andino play for? Do you even know which position? Does it matter might be the more pertinent question? The answers are Orioles, second (72 games), shortstop (23 games) and third (12), and yes. Of course a player who qualifies at multiple spots means something, but it’s what he is doing on offense right now that is so exciting. OK, I might be a tad bit optimistic by making it seem like he is excelling, but he has stolen seven bases while scoring 23 runs over his last 40 games. It ain’t great production, but if you’re in an AL-only league, or a really deep mixed league that uses middle and corner infielders, you should be aware of who he is.

Yovani Gallardo is a confounding player to own, there’s no two ways around that. Sometimes he excels at shutting down the opponent. At other points, he’s a disaster. Still, the guy can be dominating when he’s in the groove, and boy is in he the groove right now. Over his last eight starts Gallardo is 5-2. However, he’s been even better than that wonderful record would indicate with a 1.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and, most importantly, he’s just not walking anyone leading to an amazing 6.50 K/BB ratio. All told he is one of only four NL hurlers who has 15 wins, 150 Ks, a 3.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. The others are Ian Kennedy, Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay.

Carlos Gonzalez leads baseball with 30 RBI in 21 games in August. His total is one more than that of Curtis Granderson who leads the AL. Who leads baseball in homers in the month? How about Granderson, Dan Uggla and Evan Longoria who all have 10 long balls, one more than Joey Votto and CarGo have. In terms of runs scored, Granderson leads that pack as well with 27 runs in 25 games, three more than Ryan Braun who leads the NL and four more than Corey Hart who is second in the NL.

Derek Jeter injured his knee when he fouled a ball off it over the weekend. He’s likely to miss a few days with the injury. The setback comes at an awful time for Jeter as he has pushed his season long average up to .296. How has he done that? Jeter is hitting .344 over his last 39 games and over his last 23 games he’s been as good as just about any hitter in baseball posting a .398 batting average in August. The only batters with a better average in the month are Aramis Ramirez (.409) and Alex Avila (.400).

Joe Mauer is out of the Twins’ lineup Monday, the fifth straight game he has missed. This is yet another example of why I tell people all the time to avoid spending an early draft pick on a catcher – they are just so injury prone. Mauer is still hitting a passable .287, though that is light years from his .324 career mark, and he has all of one home run making him less valuable that a guy like Ryan Hanigan who is hitting .270 with six homers and four more RBI (29 to 25). Think back to draft day – was Hanigan even drafted? Even if he was, it was likely 20 rounds after Mauer went off the board.

By Ray Flowers