Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy tied for the NL lead last year with 21 victories. You know that I’m not a huge fan of win-loss records when it comes to defining a pitcher, but when a guy goes 21-4 – Clayton Kershaw went 21-5 – you have to pay attention. So why is it that some fantasy baseball players are taking Daniel Hudson before they look Ian Kennedy’s way  at the draft table in 2012? That’s a very good question. Perhaps they think, as I will argue, that Kennedy has little chance of replicating his 2011 effort.

Some facts about Kennedy’s 2011 season.

Kennedy tied for the NL lead in wins.

Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA. Only seven pitchers in the NL bettered that mark.

Kennedy struck out 198 batters. Only seven NL pitchers had more.

Kennedy posted a 1.08 WHIP. Only five NL hurlers had a better mark.

Kennedy had a .227 BAA. Only four NL hurlers were tougher to hit.

Kennedy tossed 222 innings. Only four NL hurlers threw more innings.

All of that certainly makes Kennedy seem like an elite hurler, does it not?

The strikeouts are legit. Over the last two years his K/9 mark has been 7.79 and 8.03. When a pitcher does that in more than 400-innings I’m buying it.
One of the main keys to his surge from solid to dominating last year was the fact that he stopped beating himself. Over his first 253.2 big league innings he walked 3.80 batters per nine innings, about a half batter above the big league average. Last year he chopped that number down like a lumberjack whacking weeds as his BB/9 mark shrank to 2.23. It’s hard to know if we should trust his work last season completely, an in truth, I don’t. Pitchers just don’t cut a batter from their walk rate overnight (his rate was 3.25 in 2010). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give back some of those gains. Moreover, I’d feel more comfortable expecting a BB/9 mark closer to his 2010 rate than his mark from 2011.

Kennedy is as run of the mill as it gets when we talk about GB/FB ratios. In fact, he’s never posted a league average mark of 1.10 (last year’s 0.98 rate was a career best). I will give Kennedy credit for cutting the fly ball rate a bit last year, he was three percentage points below his career norm, but unfortunately most of those batted balls ended up as line drives instead of ground balls. If he keeps that trend up in 2012 you’d have to think he would allow more hits than he did last season. In addition, his left on base percentage of 79.2 percent was huge (it was the 9th highest mark in baseball). It was four percent better than his rate from 2010 and about nine percentage points clear of the league average. That doesn’t speak to a repeat effort in the ERA column. Neither does his xFIP which places his ERA last season at 3.50. All of this data paints a pitcher who had a perfect storm last season which helped to maximize hie performance.

What do I think about Kennedy? I think he will be a solid pitcher in 2012. As I wrote above, the strikeouts are legit, an if he stays healthy long enough to toss 200-innings he’ll be a benefit in that category. I worry about his ability to keep his ratios as low as they were last season given the drastic improvement he made in the walk column, the fact that his LOB% was so high and that his GB/FB ratio was so mediocre. If you’re drafting Kennedy in 2012 make sure your expectations are reasonable. If you roster him thinking he will be a top-30 starter you have a good chance that your expectations will be met. If you think he’s a top-15 arm you’ll more than likely end up a bit disappointed in the Diamondbacks’ righty.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Misses

In my last column I broke down my greatest “hits” of starting pitchers, those that I identified and suggested you add to your stable of hurlers for the 2011 season who succeeded. Today I’ll ding myself by pointing out the hurlers that failed to deliver based on my personal expectations.

For the “hits” see PART I.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

MISSES

Josh Johnson (#8): Shoulder woes limited Johnson to just nine starts and 60.1 innings in 2011. He was spectacular when on the hill with a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, not to mention 56 Ks in 60.1 innings, but his future is cloudy as he simply cannot be counted on to take the hill every five games.

Roy Oswalt (#13): Back woes limited him to his worst season, possibly ever. He won only nine games against 10 loses, lasted just 139 innings (his lowest total since 2003), and saw his K/9 dip to 6.02 (the worst mark of his career). He wasn’t horrible with a 3.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he was drafted to be a strong #2 hurler, not a depth play.

Chad Billingsley (#18): It’s time to give up on him becoming an elite pitcher, but he should still be better than he was this season. Chad produced a five year low with 11 victories, a career worst 4.21 ERA, a 5-year worst in K/9 (7.28) and a 5-year high in BB/9 (4.02). Simply put, he wasn’t very good, but he’s still only 27 years old and did toss 188 innings, his fourth straight year hitting that mark.

Francisco Liriano (#23): He will never be the pitcher he was before he blew his arm out, so put that thought out of your head as he’s lost three mph off his fastball since his heyday. As a result, his K/9 fell a batter and a half from his career rate, down to 7.50 per nine, and he was simply dreadful at throwing strikes walking 5.02 batters per nine innings. That’s just shameful.

Ryan Dempster (#25): The good – he threw more than 200 innings with at least 170 K’s for a fourth straight season. The bad – his ERA was awful at 4.80 and his WHIP wasn’t much better at 1.45. A lot of that has to do with his horrible start to the year, though his 3.70 xFIP was actually right in line with his previous three seasons (3.69, 3.76 and 3.74). He wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be.

Ricky Nolasco (#29): I give up. The guy has tantalizing skills including 4-straight years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.36, and his xFIP keeps saying that his ERA should be well below where it always is (5.06, 4.51 and 4.67 the last three years). I’m still gonna draft him late in 2012, but only at a point where I know he’ll give me value versus at a level that I hope he will be able to live up to.

Brett Anderson (#30): Couldn’t help this one as there was no way to predict that he would need Tommy John surgery in July. He ended the year 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (#31): He still owns hellacious stuff, see his 9.06 K/9 mark, but he rarely seems to know where it is going (see his ghastly 5.86 BB/9 mark). It’s as simple as this; until he starts throwing strikes he’s simply not someone that you can trust, at all.

John Lackey (#42): Seems like everything that could go wrong with the Boston righty did in 2011. He won 12 games, his 9th straight season of double-digits, but he threw a nine year low of 160 innings. The Sox may not have been complaining though given his 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Amazingly, his K/9 has gone down each of the last six years while his BB/9 has gone up each of the last four.

Ian Kennedy (#55): No one predicted this effort. I’ll tip my hat to the guy as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 Ks. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of repeating that effort, but he was dynamite in 2011.

Jake Peavy (#56): I thought putting him in the second half of the top-100 was being fair. Turns out, it wasn’t. Peavy only lasted 111.2 innings, posted an abysmal 4.92 ERA, and he has serious questions about whether or not he will ever be able to even take the ball 30 times a year again.

Michael Pineda (#95): Here is my quote, and my reasoning as to why he was so low in my original rankings. “I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.” I totally missed the time line which is why my ranking of him was so off.

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

By Ray Flowers

Labor Day

It’s Labor Day, so I hope all of you are pulling back on a beer, sitting poolside, and just enjoying life while I soldier on at the keyboard (I know, I’m, such a martyr aren’t I?).

Franklin Gutierrez is likely done for the year with a strained oblique muscle. He’s been bad for so long that you may have forgotten that he avereged 16 homers, 67 RBI, 73 runs and 21 steals the past two years. Well, he hit one homer, knocked in 19 runners, scored 26 times and stole 13 bases in 92 games for the Mariners this season. Yeah, that qualifies as a massive letdown. Don’t get me started on his teammate Chone Figgins (.188-1-15-24-11).

Remeber that story about Josh Hamilton not being able to see during the day time because he had light colored eyes (What’s on Tap)? Well, Hamilton has apparently settled on a routine of drops and sunglasses to help cure his woes, and it’s showing as he has hit .342 in day games since the All-Star break. I still find this story so fascinating. Is he really the only player in baseball with light colored eyes? I’m no optomitrist, but still.

I bet you might be unware of this fact but Aaron Hill is finally hitting. I know, shocking to think isn’t it? Not only has he hit .381 since he joined the surging D’backs he’s also been smoking hot of late going 11-for-22. That’s a .500 average folks. It’s not time to put behind him all the all struggles he’s shown the past two years, but he’s finally starting to perform like the All-Star level second baseman that he has shown himself to be previously.

Speaking of hot bats, have you been keeping an eye on Carlos Lee? Of course you haven’t, and why would you since he plays for the Astros. However, if you haven’t checked lately you will have missed the fact that he’s  hit, get this, .457 the past two weeks. His current hot streak has pushed him up to a pace that would nedt hit a line of .277-16-89. That’s not great production by any means, but it’s a usuable line in deep mixed leagues.

Cliff Pennington the last two weeks – .359 with 15 RBI. One word for that – wow.

Grady Sizemore has been activated from the DL. He’s hitting .237 without a single steal in 61 games this season. Remember back when he was a 30/30 performer in 2008 as he was finishing up a 4-year run of at least 22 homers, 76 RBI, 101 runs and 22 steals?

Example 1,873,279 of why being a major league pitcher isn’t always fair. Ian Kennedy leads the NL with an 18-4 record while teammate Daniel Hudson is 15-9. Those two D’back hurlers have ERAs of 2.96 and 3.53, while their WHIPs are 1.12 and 1.22. Tim Lincecum is 12-12 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while Matt Cain is 11-9 with a 2.85 ERA an a 1.07 WHIP. Speaking of poor records, Lincecum, Cain, Ryan Vogelsong (2.62) and Madison Bumgarner (3.43) are all in the top-16 in the NL in ERA (if you remove MadBum the other trio of Giants hurlers are all in the top-8). That foursome has combined to go 42-39 for the sinking Giants.

by Ray Flowers

Worth Pointing Out

Beyonce is pregnant. Add her to the list of starlets who have jumped on the bandwagon of babies of late. Is it just me or does it seem like everyone but me, who is over 25 that is, has kids? I feel like an outsider when I walk down the street. Strollers, baby wipes, crying/screaming kids… I mean, who doesn’t want that?

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

Quick, what team does Robert Andino play for? Do you even know which position? Does it matter might be the more pertinent question? The answers are Orioles, second (72 games), shortstop (23 games) and third (12), and yes. Of course a player who qualifies at multiple spots means something, but it’s what he is doing on offense right now that is so exciting. OK, I might be a tad bit optimistic by making it seem like he is excelling, but he has stolen seven bases while scoring 23 runs over his last 40 games. It ain’t great production, but if you’re in an AL-only league, or a really deep mixed league that uses middle and corner infielders, you should be aware of who he is.

Yovani Gallardo is a confounding player to own, there’s no two ways around that. Sometimes he excels at shutting down the opponent. At other points, he’s a disaster. Still, the guy can be dominating when he’s in the groove, and boy is in he the groove right now. Over his last eight starts Gallardo is 5-2. However, he’s been even better than that wonderful record would indicate with a 1.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and, most importantly, he’s just not walking anyone leading to an amazing 6.50 K/BB ratio. All told he is one of only four NL hurlers who has 15 wins, 150 Ks, a 3.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. The others are Ian Kennedy, Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay.

Carlos Gonzalez leads baseball with 30 RBI in 21 games in August. His total is one more than that of Curtis Granderson who leads the AL. Who leads baseball in homers in the month? How about Granderson, Dan Uggla and Evan Longoria who all have 10 long balls, one more than Joey Votto and CarGo have. In terms of runs scored, Granderson leads that pack as well with 27 runs in 25 games, three more than Ryan Braun who leads the NL and four more than Corey Hart who is second in the NL.

Derek Jeter injured his knee when he fouled a ball off it over the weekend. He’s likely to miss a few days with the injury. The setback comes at an awful time for Jeter as he has pushed his season long average up to .296. How has he done that? Jeter is hitting .344 over his last 39 games and over his last 23 games he’s been as good as just about any hitter in baseball posting a .398 batting average in August. The only batters with a better average in the month are Aramis Ramirez (.409) and Alex Avila (.400).

Joe Mauer is out of the Twins’ lineup Monday, the fifth straight game he has missed. This is yet another example of why I tell people all the time to avoid spending an early draft pick on a catcher – they are just so injury prone. Mauer is still hitting a passable .287, though that is light years from his .324 career mark, and he has all of one home run making him less valuable that a guy like Ryan Hanigan who is hitting .270 with six homers and four more RBI (29 to 25). Think back to draft day – was Hanigan even drafted? Even if he was, it was likely 20 rounds after Mauer went off the board.

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

photo © 2006 Mark A. Vargas | more info (via: Wylio)

You pull on your trunks, slap on your flip flops and head to the beach. It’s sunny outside so the weather must be wonderful. Why wouldn’t you play hooky? However, you get to the beach, grab your Frisbee and set out for your spot on the sand right next to that hottie wearing the black bikini only to realize that though it’s sunny out there that it’s actually about 63 degrees. Come to think of it, there is also about a 18 mph wind blowing. All of a sudden your day of lotion, sun and relaxation just doesn’t look as promising as it did 35 minutes ago when you left your crib.

The point is this – perception isn’t always reality.

In what follows I’ll point out some situations that I’m sure will blow your mind when you realize what you “thought” was going on may not exactly be what is really going on.

Matt Joyce has floundered so much this season that he is on pace for 11 homers and 57 RBI. Whoopee do. However, did you notice that he is hitting .346 on the year or that he is hitting .419 with a 1.210 OPS over the last two weeks?

Ian Kennedy started the year slowly and that makes you think his effort in 2010 was a bit fluky, right? If you thought that you would have missed out on the fact that over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP.

Jed Lowrie is hitting a robust .350 on the year and has been a terrific find thus far (we would all agree). Still, were you aware that over the past two weeks that Lowrie was hitting all of .267 with a .277 OBP in 45 at-bats? Or how about this. Lowrie has no homers and one RBI in his last 10 games. So much for him being the savior, right?

Brad Penny stinks and there is just no need to pay any attention to him. After all, he has seven walks and allowed 12 earned runs over his first two starts of the year. Well, of late he has looked like an All-Star with a 1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 3.20 K/BB ratio over his last three starts

Juan Rivera is hitting only .212 on the year and has been a massive disappointment for the Jays, right? Not so fast. Rivera is actually hitting pretty well right now with a .317 mark over the past two weeks during which time his OPS has been a strong .905.

Troy Tulowitzki bashed seven homers with 14 RBI in his first 12 games and was looking like the NL MVP. Since then he has gone deep, uh, not a single time in 15 games. He only has three RBI in those 15 contests as well. He’s also hit .225 with a .569 OPS over his last 40 at-bats.

I think you get the point.

We are talking about a handful of at-bats or starts with players, and that just isn’t enough data to paint an accurate portrait in most cases. As humans who have busy lives we’ve learned to draw conclusions based upon the data presented to us. If that snap shot was ‘Troy Tulowitzki is mashing the ball as well as any shortstop in the history of baseball” it’s most likely how you stereotyped him for the 2011 season. Maybe that will end up being the case and you’ll be right, but even with that hot start of his the truth is that over the last two weeks there are 20 shortstops who have have produced more fantasy value. Don’t mistake me here, I’m not saying that I have any doubt in Tulo’s greatness, my point is that it’s a long season and before you go formulating an opinion on players make sure that you have enough data at your disposal to make that call.

Now where is my SPF 30?

By Ray Flowers