(1) Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.
(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.
(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.
(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.
(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?
By Ray Flowers
I get heat all the time for putting pictures of beautiful women on my site (I even had a female follower tell me I should even things out and put a beefcake on the site. She’s obviously right, but there’s just no way I can bring myself to do it). Why do I it? Who doesn’t like to look at beautiful women? Am I right?
After that brief digression, and the shameless use of the feminine form to boost my readership, it’s time to hit on some players that are performing at levels that you may not have been aware of (hence the title of this piece).
Lance Berkman is 0-for-14 to drop his batting average to .282. In fact, the only month in which he has really impressed in the batting average category was April when he hit .388. Since then his monthly averages are .262, .221, .250 and .281. You shouldn’t be too surprised as the 35 year old Berkman hit .274 in 2009 and .248 in 2010.
Johnny Cueto leads baseball with a 2.05 ERA over 21 starts. This is shocking for numerous reasons, not the least of which being that Cueto came into the year with a 4.27 ERA over 531 innings (that mark of 4.27 was worse than the league average in that time of 4.17). Cueto is having this success despite a four year low in punchouts (6.22 per nine). Looks like all those extra grounders have been the key. In his first three seasons his ground ball rate was 39, 42 and 42 percent. This year that mark is about 25 percent up at 53.3 percent. Pretty amazing.
Ian Kinlser has 23 homers, 23 steals and 94 runs scored. With two more homers, two more steals and six more runs scored he’ll have produced just the sixth such season by a second sacker of the 21st first century of 25-25-100. It’s old hat for him. He did it back in 2009 when he hit 31 homers, stole 31 bases and scored 101 times.
James Loney is leading baseball, that’s not a typo I swear, with a .397 batting average the past 30 days (that’s .010 points clear of Derek Jeter). A monumental bust for nearly the durations of the season, Loney has come alive of late making it conceivable that he’ll reach his career norms in two categories you likely thought he had no chance of reaching. He’s hitting .277 and his career mark is .286. He also has nine homers leaving him a big month from hitting his average the past four years of 13.
Cliff Pennington (.272) is batting better than Kevin Youkilis (.266) this season. Speaking of Cliff, were you aware that he has been one of the most productive shortstops in baseball since the All-Star break? Pennington hsa hit .347, managed to plate 25 runs, and posted a .905 OPS over 41 games. I know, shocking ain’t it?
James Shields has 10 complete games this season, more than the total of the #2 and #3 men in the American League, combined. Felix Hernandez is second with five, and there is a list of six men who have recorded four complete games (Jered Weaver, Ricky Romero, Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, Derek Holland and Justin Verlander). All told that group has 39 complete games. That means those eight men are barely halfway to the all-time record of 75 complete games held by Will White way back in 1879. For the modern record, since 1900, the eight are still well behind Jack Chesbro’s mark of 48.
Chris Young, who coincidentally I picked up in a trade about when this slump started, is hitting .148 over the last 30 days, the worst mark in baseball. It’s not like we haven’t seen him struggle before as he hit .212 in 2009 and owns a .239 mark in his career. Still, he’s one homer and one steal away from a 20/20 season, and that would be the third time in five years he has hit that plateau so I’ll cut him some slack.
By Ray Flowers
Photo by Gary McCabe
I am in 5×5 roto league and have a stacked offense, but my steals are so-so. I’m considering offering Brandon Phillips and Matt Holiday for Ian Kinsler and B.J. Upton. Am I giving up too much in reliable players for a couple with questions?
– Tom, Cypress, Texas
This question brings up an obvious point some people forget at times – nothing is done in a vacuum. Sometimes trading “better” players to get “inferior” ones might be more beneficial to your spot in the standings. Remember, it doesn’t matter if you win the homer category by three or 33, you still get the same amount of points in a rotisserie league. Dealing from an overwhelming strength to shore up a weakness often makes a lot of sense.
Straight up I’d prefer Holliday over Upton – by a lot.
Straight up I’d prefer Kinsler over Phillips – but it’s pretty darn close.
In this scenario however…
Last year Phillips (16) and Holliday (nine) had 25 steals.
Last year Kinsler (15) and Upton (42) had 57 steals.
Per 162 games in their careers…
Phillips (23) and Holliday (14) average 37 steals.
Kinsler (28) and Upton (40) average 68 steals.
Clearly, if the goal is to improve your steal total, this is a move you have to make.
There is obvious risk however. Holliday will hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI while Upton could hit .230-15-60. I personally think Upton has a legit shot to be a dominating force this season, he’s a 20/40 threat in my mind, but their reliability grades couldn’t be more different. I’d also make the argument that the upside with Kinsler is immense, we saw what he could do in 2009 when he went 30/30, but he’s also played more than 130 games just once in five seasons. As for Phillips the ceiling may not be as high as it is with Kinsler, but he has averaged a mighty impressive 21 homers and 24 steals the past five seasons.
Given your situation, and your stated need for speed, I can support this deal as long as you have enough batting average strength to take on the potential downside that Kinsler and Upton could bring.
What do you think of the outlook for Edinson Volquez this year? I have him as a $3 keeper in my $100 salary cap auction league. I have an owner with Cole Hamels ($9) that is interested in Volquez. Would you recommend trading Volquez for Hamels?
– Tom, Baltimore, Maryland
Edison Volquez was a star in 2008 with a 17-6 record, a 3.21 ERA and a mouth watering 206 Ks in 196 innings. He struggled in 2009 before being shut down due to an elbow issue that led to Tommy John surgery, and last season he wasn’t much better in his return to the bigs. In fact, over his last 21 starts the only thing that stands out is his still impressive K-rate: 8-5, 4.33 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.13 K/9. He’s also really struggled to throw strikes with a walk rate of 5.37 per nine the past two years. No matter how dominating your stuff is you simply cannot succeed long term when you issue that many free passes. Some of that lack of control can be blamed on the injury and working his way back into shape, but even when Edinson dominated in ’08 he still had a BB/9 rate of 4.27, a full batter above the big league average.
Hamels, for some reason, gets about as much love as Paris Hilton at the Academy Awards. Last year Hamels was 12th in the NL in ERA (3.06), had the same WHIP (1.18) as Clayton Kershaw, Johan Santana and Chris Carpenter, and had a career best 211 Ks, 6th in the league. Flat out, this guy is an ace, even if he doesn’t always get the love that he should in fantasy leagues. He is a safer and vastly superior option when compared to the Reds’ Volquez.
But what of the cost? Converting the dollars to the standard $260 scale, Volquez would be $8 and Hamels $23. Obviously Volquez is a tempting hold given that his cost is 1/3 of Hamels. Would I pay $23 for Hamels in a keeper league? I would. Would I pay $8 for Volquez in a keeper league? I actually answered yes before I finished typing the previous sentence. Without knowing how long players can be kept, if there are any salary increases in successive years, how much money you have invested in your other players, and without knowing who else is on your staff, I’d keep Hamels. If everything breaks right for Volquez we’ve seen that he can be an elite level producer, but Hamels is already there. I know the cost is significant, but in this case I’d go with the higher priced ace from the Phillies and sleep more comfortably at night.
I’m a football convert trying to get into fantasy baseball this season. My question is about draft strategy. Which positions should I target early – like a RB in football – and which should I leave until the end – like a kicker?
– Wilson, Nashville, Tennessee
I get a version of this question every once in a while, and I’m afraid my answer always disappoints – there is no single way to do a baseball draft. There are general rules, and I’ll get to them in a second, but there is nothing like there is in football where you can basically say go running back and wide receiver in the first two rounds and defense and kicker in the last two. There are many reasons for this.
First, there are more positions to fill in fantasy baseball. There are six main starting positions in football (QB, RB, WR, TE, DEF and K) while there are eight in baseball (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, SP and RP). Seceond, there are more players drafted in fantasy baseball – sometimes as many as 10-14 more. Third, there is less certainty in some respects. In football when a RB goes down you know who the team will turn to for 20 touches the next week. In baseball, when a starter goes down, there is often a mix and match scenario that takes place, in addition to there being nothing akin to the replacement player being given a ton of touches and work at the goaline. Simply put – the situation is more variable in baseball.
As for some general rules, here is what I would suggest.
(1) Never draft a closer in the first couple of rounds. Don’t wait until the last round like you would with a kicker, but there is no reason to jump into the closer mix until the middle rounds of a draft.
(2) I would not take a starting pitcher in the first round. Moreover, in most scenarios, I wouldn’t take a starting pitcher in the first five rounds of a draft. This is not a hard and fast rule of course, but I rarely deviate from this plan unless I’m in a scoring setup which favors pitchers. In a standard 5×5 setup, there will be plenty of pitching available in the middle rounds.
(3) I would never take a catcher in the first round. I probably wouldn’t take one in the first couple of rounds actually. Catchers are so susceptible to injury, especially foul tips to their hands or issues with their knees, that consistency from them is elusive. It’s also not at all rare for a starting catcher to play 75 to 80 percent of their teams games, and that dampens the ability for them to post strong counting totals (especially in the RBI and runs scored columns).
(4) While paying attention to position scarcity early on, at least in the first couple of rounds I’m still targeting the best players with my first few selections. As an example, I’m not going to draft Jose Reyes in the second round if players like Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen are still there. Reyes might play shortstop, a position that is in arguably thinner than the outfield, but if I have Kemp, Upton and McCutchen ranked ahead of Reyes on my draft board, I’m still going to go with the outfielders.
Have fun with it – and welcome to the world of fantasy baseball.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
l probably touch on plenty of Average Draft Position data over the coming month plus as we get ready for the start of the regular season. Today, I’m gonna look at the data from Mock Draft Central and point out some of the more vexing things I’m currently seeing.
Is Andre Ethier really a top-11 outfielder like he is being drafted (ADP of 40)? The dude has a beautiful swing, you’ll get no argument from me there, but there are some serious concerns with me if you are thinking of going with Ethier in the top-40 or so picks. (1) He’s only had one season of 25 homers. (2) He’s only had one season of 85 RBI. He’s only had one season of 400 at-bats in which he hit .295. (4) He’s never stolen more than six bases. So let’s boil that down. How much would you pay for a .295-25-85 season with six steals? Aubrey Huff hit .290 with 26 homers, 86 RBI and seven steals last year and his ADP this year is 111. I’m just saying.
Rickie Weeks is going off the board eight picks before Ian Kinsler and 70 before Kelly Johnson. Huh. I know Kinsler is an injury waiting to happen, but really, is he any more of a risk than Weeks? In three of the his six seasons Weeks has failed to appear in 100 games. Kinsler has appeared in at least 100 games in each of his five seasons. Let’s compare the performance of each man per 162 games.
Weeks: .253-22-67-113-23
Kinsler: .281-24-83-115-28
Johnson: .269-18-70-91-11
I snuck Johnson in there at the end to show that he is likely the best option of all three if you are talking about a return on your investment. I wouldn’t put his upside anywhere near to the other two, but there could be value in selecting him five rounds later. By the way, I’m not sold on anyone taking Weeks before Kinsler.
I get why people are scared off from Mark Reynolds, I mean the dude hit .198 last year. But should he be going off the board at pick 129? Over the past three years, here is how Reynolds ranks amongst third sackers: he is first with 104 homers, fourth with 284 RBI, second with 264 runs scored and third with 185 extra base hits. Are you really sure he isn’t a better value than the Pirates up and coming slugger Pedro Alvarez who is going off the board with an ADP of 88? Alvarez hit only .256 last year, Reynolds is .242 for his career, and Alvarez struck out 119 times in just 347 at-bats. I really don’t see too much difference there.
Alex Gordon is barely cracking the top-400 right now, and with good reason after he hit a mere .215 in 242 at-bats with the Royals last season. Still, the guy was the #2 overall selection in the 2005 Draft, he’s just 27 years old, and I think the Royals will give him a legit shot at everyday playing time making him a terrific AL-only option with some mixed league appeal (if you grab him really late). Don’t overlook that Gordon punished Triple-A pitching last year to the tune of a .315-14-44-59-7 line in a mere 68 games. It’s now or never time for him, and he knows it.
Roy Oswalt led the NL in WHIP last season (1.03) and he is going off the board as the 27th starting pitcher with an ADP of 101. Let’s compare, for giggles, his work last season to that of Zack Greinke who is going off the board in the top-10 amongst starters with an ADP of 51.
Oswalt: 13-13, 2.76 ERA, 193 Ks, 1.03 WHIP, 3.51 K/BB in 211.2 IP
Greinke: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 181 Ks, 1.25 WHIP, 3.29 K/BB in 220 IP
Surprised? I’ll give Greinke a boost in value since he will now be in the NL, and he clearly is the one of the duo who has more “upside,” but really, does that justify the fact that he is going off the board 50 selections ahead of Oswalt? Not in my mind.
If you have any questions drop me a line at rflowers@fanball.com, and make sure you follow me on Twitter at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter account.
By Ray Flowers
Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 Second Basemen for 2011 and explain why I favor Chase Utley over Robinson Cano.
For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.
Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?
UTLEY OVER CANO
Am I the black sheep or what? It seems like every time we look at these staff rankings I’m the maverick out there saying something no one else agrees with. To be honest I had zero intention of stirring up any controversy, it’s just how things played out.
So why in the world would I list Utley #1 when everyone else on staff had him #2 behind the Yankees’ Cano? Here are my thoughts.
Both players have a history of excellence at the dish, though I still say Utley has the higher ceiling here. The data.
Cano has:
* Hit at least .297 in five of his six seasons and owns a .309 career average.
* Hit at least 14 homers in each of his six seasons.
* Knocked in at least 72 runs in each of the past five seasons (he had 62 as a rookie).
* Scored at least 70 runs in five of his six season.
* Produced at least 155 hits in each of his six seasons.
* Hit at least least 34 doubles each of the past six seasons. In fact, he is fifth in baseball with 240 doubles since the beginning of the 2005 season.
Now for Utley who has:
* He has hit at least .275 each of the past six seasons and owns a .293 career average.
* Hit at least 22 homers in five of the past six seasons.
* Knocked in at least 93 runs in five of the past six seasons.
* Scored at least 93 runs in five of the past six seasons.
* Produced at least 158 hits in five of the past six seasons.
* Hit at least 28 doubles in five of the past six seasons. In fact, he is 14th in baseball with 216 doubles since the beginning of the 2005 season.
Remember, Utley was limited to just 115 games in 2010 because of injury or those columns above would almost certainly read all six seasons instead of five of six (he hit .275-16-65-75-13, 20 doubles and 117 hits in 115 games).
Let’s do a more direct comparison between the two.
From 2005-09 Utley averaged 29 homers a season. Cano has only one season in his career with 29 homers.
From 2005-09 Utley averaged 101 RBI a season. Cano only has one season in his career with more than 97 RBI.
From 2005-09 Utley averaged 111 runs a season. Cano has never scored 105 runs in a campaign.
From 2005-09 Utley averaged 15 steals a season. Cano has never stolen more than five bases in a season.
Are you catching my drift here? More directly, here are each man’s totals, per 162 games, over their careers.
Utley: 29 homers, 105 RBI, 109 runs, 15 steals
Cano: 21 homers, 91 RBI, 92 runs, 4 steals
I’m sure some will argue for the difference in the batting average of the two pushing the Yankees’ second sacker ahead of Utley, admittedly Cano has Utley beat there (career: .309 to .293), but I would counter with the following. Utley has a career OBP of .380. Cano has only one season in his career in which he can match that (.381 in 2010). Utley also owns a .514 SLG in his career, well clear of the .489 mark of Cano.
Don’t get me wrong I love Cano, but I think he is coming off a career best season which will drive up his price. He is also on the Yankees, and that always makes guys more expensive. I’m more than willing to give up a few batting average points for the better production in the other four fantasy categories that Utley will likely offer in 2011, so you can go ahead and take Cano first.
And finally, why no Howie Kendrick love (I was the only one to mention him in the top-10)? I got news for everyone, not only does Kendrick own a .295 career average, he had more homers (10) than Ian Kinsler (nine), more RBI than Kelly Johnson (71), more runs than Juan Uribe (67 to 64) and more steals than Utley (14 to 13) in 2010. I’ll gladly take Kendrick as my second basemen in 2011.
By Ray Flowers
With the 2010 World Series set to start today I will go through the lineups of the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers to see which club has the advantage.
Oh, and if you are in search of that link for the NL Rookie of the Year, well, there you go.
By Ray Flowers
The first round of any fantasy draft is huge. There’s no surer way to ruin your fantasy season than to blow your first round pick on an under performing player, or one who ends up injured. At least that is conventional wisdom around most parts. However is it true when so many first round choices, year after year, fail to live up to expectations?
Here is a review of the first round for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft we did for our 2010 Annual Fantasy Baseball Magazine. How did our top-15 choices play out now that the 2010 season is complete (the NFBC’s main event is made up of 15-team leagues)?
One final note, in parenthesis is the ranking that each player finished the 2010 season with according to our Player Rater tool. If a player has “miss” after his name, he failed to finish in the top-50.
1- Albert Pujols (2nd)
In 10 years he has never, not once, failed to go at least .312-32-103-99. This year he was far better at .312-42-118-118-14.
2- Hanley Ramirez (11th)
He was a bit disappointing with just 21 homers an a mere .300 average, but he still went 20/30 while scoring more than 90 runs.
3- Alex Rodriguez (48th)
Potentially never has such a powerful season – 30 homers and 125 RBI – seemed so disappointing. A-Rod hit only .270, scored just 74 runs and stole a piddly four bags.
4- Ryan Braun (12th )
He failed to hit 30-homers for the first time with 25, but he still hit .304 with 103 RBI, 101 runs and 14 steals. He has been dynamic in his four year career.
5- Chase Utley – MISS
Injury limited him to 115 games, and the results was his first season with less than 22 homers, 93 RBI and 93 runs scored in six seasons (.275-16-65-75-13).
6- Mark Teixeira – MISS
He hit a terrible .136 in April and never really got on track finishing at .256 (career .286). He still was able to put up another 30-100 season though (33-108) while scoring 113 runs.
7- Miguel Cabrera (5th)
If not for Mr. Pujols, Mr. Cabrera would be seen by more fans for what he is – a player on his way to the Hall of Fame. Cabrera was second in the AL with a .328 average, third in homers with 38, and first in RBI with 126. Plus, he was my choice for the AL MVP (give Who is the AL MVP a read).
8- Matt Kemp – MISS
I predicted he would fall in 2009. I was just a year early. Kemp hit a poor .249, whiffed 170 times and was caught stealing 15 times as he had more than one run in with the coaching staff in L.A. He did have value though with 28 homers, 89 RBI and 82 runs scored.
9- Ryan Howard – (49th)
He hit 31 bombs with 108 RBI, but it was the first time in five years that he failed to go deep 45 times with 136 RBI.
10- Jacoby Ellsbury – MISS
The biggest bust of 2010 as he appeared in just 18 games.
11- Carl Crawford (3rd)
About to be a very rich man in free agency as he yet again was an all-around beast (.307-19-90-110-47).
12- Adrian Gonzalez (34th)
He plays in a terrible park for hitters, and did hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI and 87 runs, but most were expecting more after he averaged 35 homers, 106 RBI and 98 runs the previous three seasons.
13- Prince Fielder – MISS
If I said Fielder hit 32 homers and scored 94 runs, you’d be nonplussed but pleased. However he slumped to .261 and drove in just 83 runs a year after platting a career best 141 runs so it was clearly a disappointing effort.
14- Ian Kinsler – MISS
I had the pick here, and I felt good about taking Mr. 30/30 with my first selection. Alas, his season was one of injury including that stubborn ankle issue that really held him down early in the year. A season of .286-9-45-73-15 is solid for a second sacker — if he was your 14th round pick, not the 14th player taken overall.
15- Evan Longoria (22nd)
Almost matched his draft day cost as he pushed his average up to .294 with 46 doubles, five triples and five steals (all career bests). He did produce a 3-year low in homers (22) while losing nine RBI (104) and four runs (96) from his ’09 effort.
Of these 15 guys, do you know how many returned first round value according to our Player Rater? The answer is a mere five: Braun, Cabrera, Crawford, Pujols and Ramirez.
All of this just goes to show you that the old adage that drafts are won or lost in the first round may not be true because I bet a whole bunch of people won leagues taking one of the 10 guys mentioned here who didn’t finish in the top-50 this season.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Josh Hamilton out of lineup with knee injury.
(2) Alex Rodriguez likely to return on Sunday.
(3) Ray’s call up Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings.
(4) Ian Kinsler (groin), Lance Berkman (knee) back off DL.
(5) Yovani Gallardo says he is OK despite awful results.
(6) Jason Kendall needs shoulder surgery.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Aroldis Chapman to be called up on Tuesday.
(2) Manny Ramirez officially a White Sox player.
(3) Colby Rasmus (calf) back in the lineup.
(4) Nelson Cruz (hamstring) back from DL.
(5) Freddy Sanchez super hot at dish.
(6) Jose Tabata impressing with Pirates.
(7) Carlos Lee finally hitting his stride.
(8) Daniel Hudson a star for D’backs.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Dustin Pedroia (knee) likely done for year.
(2) Ricky Nolasco to pitch through torn meniscus in knee.
(3) Jordan Zimmerman is back. Will Stephen Strasburg return?
(4) Manny Ramirez on waivers – Rangers, Rays, White Sox interested.
(5) Brad Hawpe drawing interest from Red Sox, Rays and Rangers.
(6) Jason Bay (concussion) – no updates.
(7) Jonathan Broxton still in setup role.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
