Fantasy Beat – HanRam Dealt, Who Else?

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray breakdown some of the latest trades including Hanley Ramirez going to the Dodgers. They will also discuss some possible pitchers that could be getting traded before the deadline.

Hanley Ramirez, Ichiro, Zack Greinke (who was dealt to the Angels right after this broadcast was recorded).

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Player Profile: Ichiro Suzuki

One of the greatest runs in the history of baseball came to an end last season as Ichiro Suzuki failed to record 200-hits for the first time in his 11 year career. Is he washed up as a fantasy ace after one down season that saw him hit just .272?

Already 38 years old after a distinguished career in Japan, there are certainly concerns with Ichiro’s game heading into 2012. Let’s me start with the two biggest issues facing the venerable All-Star.

(1) Most obvious is Ichiro’s age. There simply no way anyone can put off Father Time forever, and it seemed like the old fella really dug his fingers into Ichiro last season.

(2) Ichiro’s performance suffered significantly last season. A career .326 hitter, Ichiro hit just .272 last season with only 184 hits ending Suzuki’s big league record of 10-straight 200-hit seasons.

With those two facts in place, Ichiro’s ADP is as low as it has ever been. Over at MockdraftCentral Ichiro is barely holding on to a top-30 spot in the outfield and a top-100 overall ranking. Given his struggles last season, does his current placement among outfielders make sense? Some thoughts.

Ichiro played 161 games last season, the 10th time in 11 years that he’s appeared in at least 155 games. The dude is a rock.

Ichiro scored 80 runs, just one run behind his average of 81 from 2009-10.

Ichiro knocked in 47 runs last season. Obviously that’s a terrible total, but it was his 4th straight season in the 40′s, so it was the same as usual for this lefty hitting slap hitter.

Ichiro may have hit much worse than ever before, it was his first season under .300, and his OBP fell from a previous career worst of .350 all the way down to .310 – which is below his career batting average. Still, would it surprise you to learn that he still stole 40 bases for the third time in four years despite being on base much less frequently than normal?

As for that average dip, given his style of hitting, it wouldn’t take much of a lost step to cause his average to fall. Still, I just mentioned how he was successful as always on the base paths, so a loss of speed isn’t solely to blame for the dropoff. Ichiro had a walk rate of 5.4 percent last year (career 6.2) and struck out at a 9.6 percent rate (career 9.3). Nothing changed there. His line drive rate was 19.1 percent, just below his 20.2 percent career rate. Again, not much to explain the nose dive his average underwent. It should be pointed out that he did produce a seven year high in his ground ball rate at 60 percent, and when you hit that many balls on the ground it’s pretty darn difficult to generate extra base hits (even when he did hit the ball in the air, his HR/F rate was a career worst). Ichiro, the owner of one of the more impressive BABIP marks of all-time (.351) failed to reach .316 for the first time in his career as his mark fell to .295. At his age it’s not a shock that his BABIP would start to dip, but after he posted a mark of at least .334 each of the previous five seasons his .295 mark last season really came a bit out of nowhere.

Let me ask you this. Which set of fantasy numbers would you prefer?

.272-5-47-80-40
.264-9-40-82-40

The first line belongs to Ichiro, the second to Cameron Maybin. According to ADP numbers, Maybin is being selected one pick ahead of Ichiro in the outfield, so clearly people are banking on an improvement from the younger but far less accomplished Padres outfielder (“far less accomplished” really isn’t even accurate. How about I throw the famous ‘he can’t hold his jock strap’ line out there). I’m not going to say that the majority of people are wrong in selecting Maybin over Ichiro, but it’s pretty interesting how far Ichiro has fallen at this point of his career isn’t it when a decade of excellence has him being taken off the board right behind a guy who has one full season in his major league career?

Ichiro, a leadoff man his entire career, is being asked to hit third in the order this year by the Mariners. Owner’s of one of the worst offenses in baseball, Ichiro should still be able to have success in the three hole. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that he will run a bit less but knock in more runs than he has in the recent past. I’m not so sure that he’s really going to curtail his running that much because so much of Ichiro’s game is being a mover and shaker on the base paths. Whatever the truth, Ichiro is to the point where excellence can no longer be expected. That doesn’t mean you should forget about him completely, he’s still capable of improving slightly upon last years effort (never doubt greatness), but he certainly is no longer someone you’ll want as a top option on your fantasy squad – not even close.

By Ray Flowers

Wanted – Answers

I get email questions all week. It’s a great way for me to interact with you, my faithful readers, and today I thought I would answer a couple of the questions that have come to me the past few days.

What are your thoughts on Brett Anderson the rest of the year? Is he a better pickup than someone like Chad Gaudin?
– Joe, Chrisman, IL

Kyle Elfrink and I talked about Anderson on our Fantasy Buffet podcast on Monday, a show that can be heard live every day, Monday – Friday from 8-9 AM PST. If you want to give it a listen, simply tune in to the show at the link above. I’ll restate what I basically said at the time.

Anderson was great the other day, he took a perfect game into the seventh inning, and over his last three starts he hasn’t allowed a single run while giving up only seven hits in 21 innings. That leaves him with solid AL ratios (4.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) though it would be nice to see a few more strikeouts (6.61 K/9 – it was over a batter per inning in his minor league career). He has done a good job throwing strikes, 2.36 BB/9, but he has needed to as he has allowed 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Still, I don’t see much that really stands out here. I’m also a bit concerned by the fact that he has permitted a line drive rate of just 15 percent yet he still has an ERA well above four, partly because of a very low left on base rate of 65.5 percent. If that line drive rate climbs toward the league average (20), his average BABIP (.297) could certainly rise, and if that occurs, without an increase in his LOB mark, well, that ERA could be closer to five than four by the end of the year. He is a solid AL-only option for sure, and one with mixed league relevance, though I certainly wouldn’t think we are looking at the next Mark Mulder based solely on a great 3-game run. Still, he is probably a better bet at this point than Chad Gaudin who despite the impressive K-totals (9.58 K/9), doesn’t throw enough strikes (4.95 BB/9), or flash near the consistency one looks for (in his last nine starts he has allowed two or fewer runs five times but five or more runs three times with a six and an eight run outing mixed in).

I’m in a 10 team league with 5 x 5 scoring. We start five OF, & have to keep two OF. As of now, my keepers are Ichiro & Hawpe. I am looking to pair Hawpe with maybe Chipper for an upgrade and am looking at Justin Upton, Holliday & Markakis. Markakis & Holliday are on the same team & can likely be had easier than Upton. Who should I go after of these three?
– Jim

Keeper questions are always a bit difficult. Are there salaries involved? Is there a contract length for how long you can hold on to players? Etc. Without knowing the answer to those type of things, I’ll just answer with the belief that you can keep the guys for a couple of years, and that there is no salary concern.

(1) You have to keep Ichiro. Period. Not only does he hit .300+ every year, he does so in such a massive amount of at-bats that his production is even more valuable than you would think straight away (an extra 80 at-bats versus a “normal” everyday player with a .320 is huge to a team’s overall mark).

(2) Chipper Jones has little value in a keeper league at this point of his storied career, and he hasn’t looked anything like the hitter we have seen the past three seasons this year.

(3) Trying to parlay Chipper and Brad Hawpe for an upgrade seems like a fine idea. Remember, sell high. Hawpe is a solid 25 HR, 100 RBI guy, but his .324 batting average far exceeds his .288 career mark, and the man has no speed at all.

(4) Nick Markakis has averaged 22 homers, 100 RBI and 102 runs the past two years, and he owns a .298 career average. Unlike a lot of youngsters he also flashes solid strike zone control as evidenced by his .371 career OBP. I don’t think he should be looked at as a 20/20 guy like some hoped, or even a 15/15 guy, but at the same time I could see him hit .300-20-100-100-10 for about the next decade, and that is tremendous.

(5) Justin Upton won’t be 22 until August, and that guy has tons of talent. He is hitting nearly .300 with 13 steals, and the power should grow to the 30-HR level. I still see holes in that swing, and I worry about his brutal defense in the outfield, but he is already a great player, and one who could dominate for years.

(6) Matt Holliday has been awful for three months, and everyone has just forgotten about him. I’ve received a couple of emails the past few days asking me about his value. In fact, one of the emails said that a guy was trying really hard to get the suddenly hot Ryan Ludwick – and if he couldn’t he would try to get Holliday. What? Try to get Holliday as a fall back option? That sounds crazy. Seems to me that everyone has allowed three months of struggling to erase three years of superstar performance. I know he isn’t in Colorado anymore, but really, Ryan Ludwick? I don’t care if he ends up moving to another club or staying in Oakland. If the emails I have received recently are any indication of how Holliday is being viewed out there, I’m all over acquiring that guy at a major discount.

So what would I do? I would offer Hawpe and Chipper for Holliday and ??? – I’d ask for another part because as I stated, I bet Holliday’s current owner is so down on him that he would throw someone else in if it would mean ridding himself of the former Colorado great. If not, targeting Markakis or Upton would also make a lot of sense as they certainly possesses more fantasy upside than Hawpe ever will. Some might rank the guys Upton. Markakis, Holliday, but I have a lot of faith in Matt.

By Ray Flowers

Life Just Isn't Fair

Continuing my basically week long rant against the world and “the man,” I wanted to voice some continued frustration at the plight of one of my baseball team’s, the one that I have rostered in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). For those of you who haven’t ever played, it’s a nationwide event with a grand prize of $100,000. Leagues are 15 teams, 5 x 5 scoring, with 30 spots on each roster, and we use a FAAB bidding process with no trading allowed. Because of the depth of the rosters, help off of waivers is often tough to find, so sometimes you have to just sit a struggling player on your bench and hope he comes around as there may not be any better options left to pick up off waivers. Here are a few specific gripes I have with my club which currently sits in 8th place (last year we finished one run, that’s right, one run, out of first place in my 15-team league, so I was obviously already frustrated with this league even before I drafted my team for 2009. By the way, I co-manage the team with Fanball big-wig Ryan Houston).

Dan Haren has been utterly spectacular at fourth in the NL in ERA (2.42), first in WHIP (0.86), third in innings pitched (78) and he has been the toughest starter in the league to hit with a .201 batting average against. Thanks to the suck-ass D’backs offense however, he is just 4-4 through 11 starts which is one of the main reasons our team is 14th in the league in wins. Another reason for this fact is that Joba Chamberlain has just three victories in 10 starts despite a 3.71 ERA for the Yankees. Toss in the work of Jered Weaver who has been spectacular (5-2, 2.26 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), and those three guys have pitched 207 innings, a full seasons worth, while producing a 2.70 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, all the while producing only a 12-7 record. For a little historical perspective, do you know how many pitchers have posted an ERA below 2.75 with a WHIP below 1.05 only to win 12 or fewer games in a season of at least 162 innings since 2000? Try one by Ben Sheets in 2004 (he went 12-14 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.

On offense, we needed power late as we had a ton of batting average potential (guys like Albert Pujols, Ichiro, Michael Young and Placido Polanco) so we took a shot at three guys who we thought should produce something along the lines of about 90 home runs while hitting .250 in Jim Thome, Jason Giambi and Rick Ankiel. Giambi has gone deep the past two days, but the trio has so far underperformed that I almost threw a Nerf football at the television last night out of frustration. Combined, they have hit .231 with 19 home runs and 70 RBI in 419 at-bats. Great job guys.

To be fair, we’ve certainly had a few things work out.

Our first pick, Albert Pujols, has once again been magnificent with his .343-16-45-42-7 line.

Our ninth round selection, Joe Mauer, has been flipping awesome. We did this draft in late March, and at the time no one knew what to expect from Mauer – there were even whispers about surgery and potentially missing half the season. But we felt that we could no longer pass on him in the ninth round, and he has rewarded that faith with a month and a half that none of us have ever seen from a catcher as he is batting .436 with 12 home runs, 35 RBI and 32 runs through just 31 games.

And finally, our 30th and final round pick, Marco Scutaro, who we took for his versatility (2B, SS, 3B) which can be huge in a league as deep as this one, is hitting .298 with five home runs, five steals, and 43 runs scored in 55 games. Not a bad number 436 pick eh?

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, we all know that. So let’s hope our guys all have a strong finishing kick and we can hang close enough for it to matter once we hit the month of September.

By Ray Flowers