Is It Time to Panic?

I get questions all day from folks. Many of them come from people who are panicked about the struggling the players they own, while some come from folks who overestimate the value of the players on their roster leading them to think they’ve got the championship in the bags. In the following piece I’ll give my thoughts on a series of players and let you know whether you should be buying or selling in the fantasy baseball game.

I’M NOT WORRIED – BUY

Matt Cain – People have lost their minds. Giving up on Cain. Why? It’s AMAZING to me how much people panic with a guy like Cain who has been so rock solid impressive the past four years. It’s like nothing I ever say gets through to some people. Sure his ERA is 6.59, but I could care less. His 8.16 K/9 mark would be a seven year best. His 1.88 BB/9 would be a career best. Pretty sure his HR/9 isn’t going to stay at 1.88 as his career mark is a mere 0.78. And then there is this. His current 3.82 xFIP mark is exactly the same as it was last year, and 0.04 above his 2011 mark. His ERA’s in those two years were 2.88 and 2.79.

Ike Davis – He’s hitting .164 with three homers and six RBIs. Last April he hit .185 with three homers and eight RBIs. He ended 2012 with 32 homers and 90 RBIs. I’m not saying he’s a lock to get there against this season, but I’m just pointing out that he started out extremely slowly last year and by the end of the year he was a productive power force.

J.J. Putz – The majors leader in blown saves with three. The issue, as it often is, revolves around location. He’s walking five guys per nine innings right now. That will come down. The last two years he hasn’t even walked 1.90 batters per nine. The other issue is homers. He gave up four taters in 2010, four in 2011 and four in 2012. He’s already allowed two in nine innings this season. For 7-straight years his HR/9 mark has been under 0.80 (it’s been under 0.68 the last four seasons). Pretty sure that number isn’t going to stay at hia current 2.00 level. Putz also has 12 Ks in nine innings.

Giancarlo Stanton – He’s hitting .200 with zero homers. Last season in April he hit .247 with one homer. He ended the year with 37 big flies in a mere 123 games. I told you all, repeatedly, that he was not a .300 hitter. I also told you I was worried about his team situation and mental health. Can’t say I didn’t warn you as I was emphatic about saying I wasn’t going to take Stanton in the top-20 this season. At the same time, you’re nuts if you’re selling this talent for .80 cents on the dollar. You should be trying to add this power monster, not deal him away.

I’M WORRIED – SELL

Tony Cingrani – Through two starts he has a 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 17 Ks in 12 innings. Wow is right. Still, he’s no lock to even be in the rotation in three weeks as Johnny Cueto rounds into shape. Plus, Tony’s still throwing his fastball 81 percent of the time through two starts. That’s a huge number. Once teams start to pick up on his motion and the movement on his fastball the results will change, and I’m pretty sure he’s not going to be able to hold onto his 64 percent ground ball rate either.

Bartolo Colon – He’s 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He’s walked one batter in 26 innings. Come on now, has he turned into Greg Maddux? Colon is striking out less than six per nine and the last time he threw 165 innings in a season was 2005.

Chris Davis – Finally fell under .400 at .382. Here are the facts. (1) He has one homer in his last 11 games. (2) He has three RBIs in his last 11 games. (3) His walk rate is double the last two years. It’s highly unlikely he sustains that growth. (4) His K-rate is 33 percent of what it has been the five years. Pretty tough to think he maintains at that level. (5) His .413 BABIP is light years ahead of his career .339 mark. Career bests in homers, RBIs and average are certainly possible given his hot start, but there is nowhere to go but down.

Ross Detwiler – Wow has he been good. Through four starts he owns a 1.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also sporting a horrific 4.50 K/9 mark. If he throws 180 innings this seasons that’s 90 Ks folks. Ninety. From a starting pitcher. He’s also lopped off a batter from his BB/9 mark from the last two years, and he’s not going to hold onto all of that. His HR/9 mark has dipped more than 50 percent from his career rate (down to 0.35). He’s not holding on to that either. Oh, and his 88.2 left on base percentage is unsustainable. Heed the warning of his xFIP (4.20). See his Player Profile.

Paul Maholm – Someone sent me a note on Twitter that they were happy to be able to deal Stanton to get Maholm. I’m serious. From his Player Profile. “Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around… he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.” Seems like most aren’t heeding my advice here either. The two biggest things that stand out: (1) His .212 BABIP is nearly .100 points below his career .304 mark. Since 2006 that number has been between .281 and .327 every year. (2) His 8.54 K/9 rate is THREE batters above his career mark which is an unsustainable pace. He’s only had one season with the mark over six the past four years.

Jose Valverde – He’ll be called up and given a chance to close for the Tigers. Here are three of my Tweets about him from last night.

Have none of you seen Valverde pitch lately? ’12 = career WORST K/9 (6.26) & K/BB (1.78) hint at scary times ahead.

Valverde ’12 = LUCKY 3.3 HR/F ratio 1/3 of career. 0.77 GB/FB 2nd worst of 9 yrs. XFIP 5.01.

Jose Valverde K/9 last SEVEN years: 12.59, 10.91, 10.38, 9.33, 9.00, 8.59, 6.26.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 18, 2012

(1) Gordon Beckham hot in September. Sign of things to come?

(2) Rob Brantly streaking for Marlins at the dish.

(3) Chase Utley to play 3B for Phillies?

(4) Cliff Lee streaking for Phillies.

(5) Martin Prado scorching with 17 hits in 10 games.

(6) Nate McLouth savior in Baltimore even if no one is noticing (see Fleaflicker)?

(7) Kevin Correia getting it done.

(8) Ike Davis to be dealt by Mets?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 17: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ike Davis (+25, $104 K in DailyJoust Salary)
He’s hitting just .213. Ugh. Now the positive. He has 20 homers, the same total as Mark Teixeira. He’s driven in 60 runs, nine more than Paul Konerko. He’s hit .253 the last 49 games after hitting .170 in his first 48 games. Certain progress no doubt, but there are still two situations that you want to make sure Davis is firmly rooted to your bench. (1) He’s hit .179 with a .576 OPS against lefties this season. (2) He’s hit .151 with a .484 OPS at home. I’m not kidding. Davis has a .151 average at home, a .214 batting average and .270 SLG in 159 at-bats. Can’t get much worse than that and remain a big leaguer.

A.J. Griffin (+69, $344K)
The former college closer just knows how to pitch. Winner of each of his last three starts, each of the six times that Griffin has taken the hill this season he’s gotten exactly 18 outs while allowing no more than three runs in any outing. In fact, he’s sporting some elite ratios – including a 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP – as he’s held batters to a .205 average while posting 29 Ks, against only eight walks, in 36 innings. It’s impossible to think he will keep up this pace, but he’s been a waiver-wire gem the past five weeks.

Justin Maxwell (+14, $70K)
For those of you in NL-only leagues Justin has been a nice, reserve round gamble, hasn’t he? Maxwell has socked 10 long balls with 31 RBIs and 29 runs scored in just 172 at-bats, some pretty impressive marks given that relatively small sample size. However, he’s also hitting .227 which, unfortunately, is .015 points better than his career average. You’re really pushing it if you’re using him in mixed leagues, but he’s a valuable commodity, despite the warts, in league specific setups.

Max Scherzer (+149, $437K)
The last five times he has taken the hill he has emerged victorious four times. In his last four starts he’s allowed a total of eight runs. He’s walked an unappealing eight batters in his last two trips to the hill, but he’s offset the wildness with his huge stuff that has led to a 10.99 K/9 mark, the best in the Junior Circuit (11.58 for Stephen Strasburg to lead the NL). The K/9 mark is a career best, as is his 3.39 K/BB ratio. He needs to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard as he’s given up more fly balls than ever before, an a greater percentage of those fly balls have landed in the seats than ever before.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Mike Aviles (-14, $55K)
On the year Aviles has been a borderline top-10 shortstop option as he’s hit .252 with 10 homers, 51 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 10 steals. Unfortunately for Aviles owners, it’s gotten ugly of late. Aviles is hitting .200 over his last 50 at-bats. He’s also hitting just .194 in July. He has just two homers in his last 48 games. He’s scored just 12 runs in his last 48 games. Yeah, it might be time to explore going with another option up the middle.

Mark Buehrle (-40, $370K)
The guy has been a rock this year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 20 starts. It’s not all sugar plumbs and roses though as he’s allowed six earned runs over his last two starts (just 10 IP) as he’s walked five while striking out five. We could play this game all day, he’s killing it, he’s mortal, but in the end he is what he is – and that is a pretty darn impressive big league hurler who never gets hurt an  almost always gives his team a chance to win, even if he isn’t an impressive big league arm.

Trevor Cahill (-47, $283K)
When will they learn? The loser in two of three starts and four of six, Cahill has been the past month what he often is – a below average big league pitcher. In five July starts he has gone 2-3 with a 4.45 WE, 1.48 WHIP and 21 Ks in 30.1 innings. If that excites you have at it with Cahill, but I personally don’t understand the love affair people have with him. Working on a career best K/9 rate, it’s just 6.50, the only think that Cahill does well, the only thing, is keeping the ball on the ground. Still, even with a career best 59 percent ground ball rate his current ratios (3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) look exactly like his career numbers (3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).

Mike Trout (-24, $128K)
A chink in the armor perhaps? Trout’s average has dipped to .350, the lowest it’s been in two weeks, and he’s stolen only one base in his last 13 games. What a loser. I’d still exercise caution when it comes to telling the future with Trout given that his line drive rate is huge and likely unsustainable (25.4 percent). Ditto his BABIP of .402. He’s having a magical season no doubt, but will he finish as strong as he started?

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 24, 2011

photo © 2009 David Berkowitz | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Do you expect Dan Uggla to come back to life?
– @EadlRosa

Let me repeat my oft head comment about Uggla, though apparently I haven’t said it enough as people continually send me notes about giving up on Uggla. In each of the last five seasons, the only five seasons he has been in the majors mind you, Uggla has hit 27 homers, had 88 RBI and scored 84 runs. In the history of baseball, as long as they have been playing the game, no second baseman can match that streak. Ever. In fact, no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years. That doesn’t mean that de facto Uggla will get there again this year, it’s merely meant to illustrate his historically excellent consistency. I’m going to trust those five years over 49 games of poor performance in a Braves uniform this season when trying to determining the value of the 31 year old second baseman.

In terms of his current performance, his K-rate has been at least 25 percent each of the past four years, and he’s currently at 21.1 percent. However, he just can’t hit em’ where they ain’t. His current BABIP is .197, and that’s only .098 points below his career mark. He could pull an Aaron Hill, we saw what that meant in 2010 for the Blue Jays’ second baseman, but the odds are strong that Uggla will rebound the rest of the way.

Kevin Youkilis for Ike Davis and Dan Uggla in a 6×6 league with OPS?
– @RyanSchwep

Youkilis was injured an ineffective in April only to break out in May as he’s hit .338 with a 1.027 OPS and 17 RBI in 19 games. That run of games has upped his numbers back into the pantheon of third basemen (.275-8-32-29). Like Uggla, Youkilis is exceedingly consistent as he has hist at least .288 with a .390 OBP in each of the last four seasons. When you toss in his eligibility at first and third base, you have a player who is clearly a difference maker. In addition, because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has posted an OPS of at least .958 each of the past three years, and his mark of .964 from 2008-10 is the best mark in the American League and second in baseball (Albert Pujols, 1.074). To compare Uggla, who I mentioned above, doesn’t possess the ability to hit for an average or to get on base like Youkilis, and the best single season OPS of his career is .877.

Davis is out with an ankle issue. He has resumed some baseball related activities, but he still hasn’t begun running yet (the hope is that he could return late this week). There is always risk adding a player coming back off injury, especially so when that player has all of 652 big league at bats. I’m not going to sit here, and yes I do type these reports sitting and not standing at my homemade bar (this Manhattan is pretty good actually), and say that Davis is overrated, but I think people are a little ahead of themselves in terms of their expectations. Though he’s hitting .302 this year, he did bat just .264 last year. He’s still striking out in a quarter of his at-bats, and yet again has a below average line drive rate (17.0 percent). At that level, it’s pretty tough to posit a continuation of his current .344 BABIP. The power is legit though.

I’d keep Youkilis. He is the best player of the three, and even though I’m a big fan of Uggla’s, there’s just no way he, or Davis for that matter, will be able to match the elite level OPS of Youkilis.

I just traded Neil Walker for Jordan Zimmerman in a keeper league. Is it a good move since I needed pitching help?
– @redskinsp

Walker he been one of the better hitting second baseman in the game so far this year (.276-6-30-28-2). Unfortunately he’s striking out a bit more this season, nearly a quarter of his at-bats, and his ground ball rate is up eight percent this year (44 percent). Neither of those numbers are scary by any means, but both would seem to cap his ability to be an elite option in average or the home run department. Basically, he’s been slightly more effective at going deep this year, thanks to a 40 percent increase in his HR/F ratio, while  pretty much maintaining many of the levels he posted last season. If he is able to hold on to what he has shown over his last 155 big league we’re likely looking at a top-10 player at second base.

Zimmerman is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the Nationals are being careful limiting their prized righties innings when possible. After a slow start to the year in the K department, Zimmerman has been bringing the heat in his last three starts racking up 22 Ks in 18.2 innings. He’s also tossed 4-straight quality starts the last four times he has taken the hill. Jordan has also limited the walks to two or fewer in each of his last eight starts, a great sign since pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery often struggle to locate their pitches. A youngster like Walker, Zimmerman has a 8.10 K/9 an a 3.12 K/BB ratio through 176.2 career innings, and numbers like that lead to a lot of success.

Both players are solid building blocks in a keeper league. While Walker will likely be very good, Zimmerman has a shot at being a top-25 starting pitcher option moving forward. Given your stated need of pitching help, I’d feel completely comfortable in making this deal.

The rest of the way… Erik Bedard or Madison Bumgarner?
– @Lintyfresh85

I’ve said this probably 46 times the past three months – when healthy, Bedard is really, really good. However, as we all know, he spends as much time sipping a pina colada as he does climbing onto the bump. Bedard tossed 81 innings in 2008, 83 in 2009 and zero in 2010. He’s up to 45.2 this season, so you have to ask yourself, how much faith do you have in him taking the ball every five games?

Bumgarner is 1-6 so he’s pitched pretty poorly this season. Wait a second, that isn’t true at all actually. Though he has only one victory, each of the last five times he has taken the hill he has produced a “quality start” leading to a 1.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.50 K/BB ratio.

Let’s compare the two directly. Here are their 2011 numbers.

E. Bedard: 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 1.10 GB/FB
Bumgarner: 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.53 K/9, 2.06 K/BB, 1.68 GB/FB

Both are left-handed.
Both are pitching well of late.
Both pitch in great pitcher’s parks.

Do you want the up and comer in Bumgarner or the slightly more skilled, but infinitely more volatile Bedard?

As much as I love the skills of Bedard I just cannot trust him to make 30 starts, so I’d go with the Giants’ lefty.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Second Year Players

Never one to turn away from my loyal followers, I was posed a question by Eric in the Comments section of the site: could I review some of the 2011 players who are heading into their second season and give my thoughts on their 2011 outlooks? You got it Eric. Here goes.

Brennan Boesch (current ADP from MockDraftCentral – outside the top-400): Check out his 2010 splits from the first half (.342-12-49 with a .990 OPS) and the second (.163-2-18 with a .458 OPS). He’s obviously neither hitter, and in fact his season long numbers are about what you would expect given his skill set (.256-14-67 with a .736 OPS). A repeat of last seasons numbers is certainly possibly, perhaps with some incremental growth, but that will only occur if he sees as much playing time as he did last season and at this point that is far from certain to occur. And don’t forget that he hit a mere .233 against righties while scorching lefties to the tun of a .337 mark with a .951 OPS. Those numbers make it seem like a platoon situation is possible, especially if he struggles early.

Starlin Castro (164): He had a tremendous season for the 20 year old as he hit .300 in 2010 for the Cubbies. However, he also hit only three homers and stole just 10 bases, so there wasn’t huge fantasy value produced by the Cubs’ shortstop. His value at this point of his development is basically what he can offer in the batting average and steals categories. Castro is fast, but expecting the leap to even 20 steals this season might be a bit much. As for the average, it should remain stable given his speed and the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (1.76 GB/FB rate). At the same time, how much would you pay for a .300-5-50-75-15 season which would seem to be his upside in 2011. I’d rather take Jason Bartlett at pick #367 overall, some 200 selections later.

Ike Davis(268): Everyone in New York thinks Davis will become the next Mark Teixeira. Me? Not so much. Davis still has that hand hitch in his swing to worry about, he struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats in ’10, and he plays in a park that isn’t exactly a homer haven. Davis also had a poor line drive rate of under 17 percent (the big league average is about 19-20 percent) which doesn’t at all support his .321 BABIP from last season. Add that up and I think he has just as good a chance to hit .250 as he does to hit .280. Given that fact, and his rather middling power for a first baseman, I really don’t see the urge to roster him in mixed leagues unless you are talking about him as a corner infield option.

Wade Davis (395): Drafters aren’t giving Davis much love. Maybe it’s because of all the young arms in Tampa that cause Davis to get lost in the shuffle? A sturdy 6’5″ and about 225 lbs., Davis seems physically capable of handling whatever innings the Rays want to throw his way. He was solid last season with a big league average walk rate (3.32 per nine), his ERA was just a hair over four at 4.07 (a pretty good mark in the AL East), while his WHIP of 1.35 was passable. He will need to curtail his homer rate a bit, it was 1.29 per nine last season, but that could easily be accomplished if he split the difference between his fly ball rate in six starts in 2009 (36 percent) and 29 last year (44 percent). The biggest concern here is where did the Ks go? After posting an 8.74 K/9 mark in the minors he was at 8.92 per nine in ’09 with the Rays. If he can add a strikeout to his mark of just 6.05 from last year, that will go a long way to making him relevant in mixed leagues.

David Freese (396): Freese has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats after hitting .308 in the minors. Clearly, the average is legit. However, he has only five homers in the bigs and has hit a rather pedestrian 17 homers over his last 500 at-bats including his minor league work. The biggest concern with him though is his health. Freese had both of his ankles operated on, and though everyone is hoping he will be ready for opening day, there is certainly some concern (the team has already announced that Allen Craig will see more time at third in spring in case he is needed in season). At this point I’m only taking Freese as an NL-only option at the corner infield spot, but there is some upside if he’s healthy.

Austin Jackson (319): Jackson led baseball with a .396 BABIP in 2010. There is no chance he repeats that number in 2011. Yes, players establish their own baseline in BABIP, and yes, fast players often surpass the major league average in BABIP (which is about .300 by the way). Still, there is no way that he will be able to push .400 again. Honestly, I think he has a hard time pushing .350. That said, his average could dip quite a bit from his .293 mark of last season. He could steal 30 bases and hit a few more homers, but that average is gonna come down. I mean for goodness sakes, the guy struck out 170 times last year and hit four homers. That’s plain awful.

Gaby Sanchez (234): A fourth round selection in 2005, Sanchez went to college meaning that he is already 27 years old which should temper somewhat the thought that he could take a major step forward in his second full season in the bigs. We all look for power at the corner infield spot, and with Sanchez it’s much more Lyle Overbay than Prince Fielder. Sanchez had a nine percent HR/F ratio, right on the big league average in 2010. The only reason he hit 19 homers was the fact that he produced a high 46 percent fly ball rate. If that number regresses even slightly in 2011, 25 homers will be a pipe dream. Draft Sanchez expecting a repeat or slight improvement from last season, but don’t draft him expecting a breakout season.

Who is the NL Rookie of the Year?

Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.

To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:

Who is the NL MVP?

Who is the AL MVP?

Who is the NL Cy Young?

Who is the AL Cy Young?

NL Rookie of the Year Discussion

John Axford: The best rookie closer in the NL. Still he only saved 24 games, and that total isn’t impressive enough to win the award in this loaded field. His ratios were solid – 2.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP – and his K-rate was sublime (11.79 per nine).

Madison Bumgarner: Pitching well beyond his 21 years of age, Bumgarner is a huge young man (6’4″, 215 lbs) who possess the demeanor of a champion (think Kevin Brown). He only made 18 starts so he had no shot at the award, but to go 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a 3.31 K/BB mark in the heat of a pennant race when you are barely old enough to drink – this guy’s gonna be a big-time player.

Starlin Castro: The Cubs shortstop hit .300 with 10 steals over 125 games, but he also slumped at the end of the season hitting just .232 over his last 33 games. He also committed a whopping 27 errors. He was amazingly good for a guy who doesn’t turn 21 until March.

Ike Davis: Considering all the pressure he was under in New York, Davis had a pretty darn impressive first effort. He needs to work on making contact, his 138 Ks in 523 at-bats is a poor mark, but he hit a passable .264 while stroking 19 long balls with 71 RBI and 73 runs scored. That production was one more homer, and one fewer RBI, than a certain outfielder from the Braves that causes everyone to drool.

Jaime Garcia: The best rookie pitcher in the league because of his ability to do what the other didn’t, and that is to rack up innings. Garcia was shut down early when the Cardinals realized they had nothing to play for (he tossed 163.1 innings), but you cannot ignore a 13-8 record and a 2.70 ERA. His WHIP was a bit high at 1.32 and his K/BB was merely average at 2.06, but it was still a fine rookie campaign.

Gaby Sanchez: A lot better than you think he was, Sanchez may have slumped late to end the year at .273, but he still powered 19 homers while knocking in 85 runs. Sanchez also scored 72 times while slapping 37 doubles for the Marlins. He won’t win the award, but he had an excellent season.

Stephen Strasburg: Twelve of the best starts ever for any pitcher to begin his career. Unfortunately Tommy John surgery was needed to fix a bum elbow. Still, he went 5-3 with a 12.18 K/9 mark and a 5.41 K/BB rate. Toss in a 2.91 ERA an a 1.07 WHIP and you begin to understand just how historically good he was for a first year hurler.

But we all know this race is about two men: Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. Let’s just get right to the numbers.

Heyward: .277/.393/.456
B. Posey: .305/.357/..505
Most know that Posey had the better batting average, but how many realized he also had a better OPS (.862 to .849)?

Heyward: 18 homers, 72 RBI, 83 runs
B. Posey: 18 homers, 67 RBI, 58 runs
Heyward comes out ahead, but he also appeared in 34 more games. If Posey maintained his pace over the 520 at-bats that Heyward had he would have had 23 homers, 86 RBI and 74 runs.

Heyward: 6.47 RC/27, .175 ISO, .363 SECA
B. Posey: 6.18 RC/27, .200 ISO, .268 SECA
Heyward clearly has the advantage here.

Heyward: Right Field
B. Posey: Catcher

To me, the batting numbers are close enough between the top-2 options that the fact that Posey is a catcher makes all the difference. Don’t overlook the fact that Posey also batted cleanup for the Giants as the team was totally transformed from virtually the moment he was called up to the big leagues.

9- Madison Bumgarner
8- Stephen Strasburg
7- John Axford
6- Starlin Castro
5- Ike Davis
4- Gaby Sanchez
3- Jaime Garcia
2- Jason Heyward
1- Buster Posey

By Ray Flowers

Early Award Returns

I’ll certainly go into much greater depth on all of the major baseball awards between now and the time that the season is completed, but I just wanted to give a few thoughts on the races at this point as the season marches, inexorably, toward the conclusion of the regular season (go Giants).

AL MVP

Main Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko
Hamilton will lead baseball in batting average (.361), and he is hopeful of a return to action from his rib issue on Friday. Still, the guy has appeared in only two games in September and just 130 on the season. Is that really an MVP worthy campaign? There has only been one MVP who appeared in fewer than 15 September games in a non-strike season, and that was Dick Groat of the Pirates in 1960. I know it would make a great story, but I can’t give a thumbs up to a guy who didn’t do a damn thing in the seasons most important month.

NL MVP

Main Candidates: Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto
CarGo and Tulo will likely cancel each other out. The anti-Hamilton, look at their numbers in September: Gonzalez (.412-5-26-24 with a 1.131 OPS), Tulowitzki (.299-15-40 with a 1.148 OPS). If that means the decision is left to Pujols and Votto you have to think the fact that Votto’s Reds are playoff bound will tip the scales in his favor in the eyes of most voters since Votto and Pujols have had nearly identical numbers this season: Votto (.325-37-111-104-16 with a 1.029 OPS), Pujols (.313-42-117-113-13 with a 1.015 OPS). Will Pujols’ history win out over Votto’s winning record?

AL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price, CC Sabathia
The best pitcher in the AL has been Felix Hernandez, though he is a mere 13-12 because of brutal run support (the Mariners scored seven runs while he was in the game in his 12 loses). Hernandez leads the league in ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), innings pitched (249.2), quality starts (30) and he is second in WHIP at 1.06 (Cliff Lee has a 1.02 mark). Still, no starting pitcher, in a non-strike season, has ever won the award with fewer than the 15 victories that Tim Lincecum posted last season.

NL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright
Hudson ha lost four of five decisions as his ERA has gone from 2.24 to 2.76. Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break but only 4-7 since. Johnson leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA but he pitched only 183.2 innings and won just 11 games. That leaves Halladay and Wainwright to finish 1-2, with Halladay likely to win the award despite nearly identical totals: Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP), Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson
Feliz was left in the bullpen when the club realized it had a hole there (he was slated to spend at least some time in the rotation), and all Feliz has done is have the best closing season by a rookie in league history with a record 38 saves in just 41 chances. He’s also posted a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings.
Jackson has played strong defense in center field while at the same time scoring a ton of runs (102). He’s also hit nearly .300 at .299, while adding 26 steals. Do you favor pitching or hitting?

NL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Jamie Garcia, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez
One of the strongest rookie classes in recent memory. As much as people seem to want to hand the award to Heyward, there are a couple of salient points that Heyward apologists have to deal with. (1) Sanchez has one more homer with 19, while he has knocked in 12 more runs (83) then Heyward. Heck, Sanchez is only batting .003 points lower at .276. How many people think Sanchez should win the award? That’s exactly why Heyward’s candidacy isn’t as strong as some profess. (2) Buster Posey has only two fewer homers and seven less RBI than Heyward despite appearing in 35 fewer games. Posey also has a .020 point lead in OPS, and he is a catcher. I’m admittedly biased as a Giants fan, but I just don’t get all this Heyward talk.

By Ray Flowers

Wacky Wednesday

Wednesday is a weird day. It’s the middle of the five day work week for most, but for me its just another day (I can’t remember the last time I actually worked only five days in a week). In fact, I can’t remember the last time that I took a real vacation – it’s been years. That signals a couple of things. (1) I’m the best employee of all-time. (2) I need to get a life. (3) I really need to get a girlfriend so I have a reason to take some time off. With that off my chest – I wonder if that was some Freudian comment related to #3? – let me get to some comments about what is going on across the field of baseball on this day.

* Milton Bradley ahs been activated from the restricted list and is back in the lineup on Wednesday for the Mariners. Hopefully he won’t fall asleep in the dugout between innings with Ken Griffey Jr. I put the over/under at a Bradley outburst or injury at nine days.

* Ike Davis will be the Mets’ cleanup hitter for the foreseeable future according to Adam Rubin of ESPN. Makes total sense doesn’t it? I mean Davis is hitting .241 over his last 16 games, has one homer in his last 11 games and has 17 Ks in his last 54 at-bats. Do the Mets ever do anything that makes sense?

* Am I the only person in America who thinks that Chris Berman of ESPN has an expiration date that we are about eight years past?

* Trevor Hoffman will spend the next few days working on his mechanics to see if he can fix whatever in the hell is causing him to look like the best batting practice pitcher in baseball. Quickly, here is what I see. He has allowed 69 percent of batted balls to go in the air, 20 percent above his career rate. Combine that fact with a 20.0 percent HR/F mark, almost triple his career rate (6.7 percent), and it’s easy to see why he has struggled, that and the fact that he has almost doubled his walk rate. He’s actually throwing his fastball at 85.4 mph, a mere tenth of a mile below his career 85.5 percent mark. While people continue to deride the location of his pitches, it is odd to see that the percentage of pitches he has thrown outside the strike zone that have been hit is 66.7 percent, a massive increase over his career rate of 51.6 percent. You could probably get him for nothing at this point, and that’s something I would do since I don’t think he is done being an effective big league hurler. It wouldn’t hurt to pick up Carlos Villanueva though since he should at least get a shot a few saves in the short-term thanks to his 11.76 K/9 rate and 1.06 WHIP over 19 appearances this season.

* What the hell are the Rockies doing with Chris Iannetta? The Rockies claim they have a plan to get the young bopper back in action with the big club, but at this point I’m wondering if that outfit is being led by Elmer Fudd. I mean really. Iannetta is hitting .375 with five homers, 21 RBI and a 1.205 OPS in 14 games in Triple-A. You think he should be in the majors given those numbers? Morons (and yes I’m upset because I have Iannetta wasting away on one of my rosters).

* Freddy Sanchez has been activated from the DL for the Giants. He’ll likely end up being eased back into action. There is no truth to the rumor that the average age of the Giants’ infield will be high enough to get them a senior citizen discount on the Grand Slam breakfast at Denny’s.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 4, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes visits doctor, but still healthy. Turns out it had nothing to do with his hamstring.

(2) Hank Blalock deciding between Rays and Marlins. Neither is offering full-time role.

(3) David Aardsma tweaks groin. Not a major issue, but brings up how useful Brandon League might end up being.

(4) Ike Davis Mets’ first basemen of future. Can Daniel Murphy hold him off in the present?

(5) Max Scherzer struggles for Tigers in first outing.

(6) Brandon Webb frustrated with speed of comeback from shoulder surgery. No setbacks reported but he feels like he has “stagnated” in the process.

Here are some links to a few of my most recent pieces at Fanball.com which are free to view.

Crawford vs. Ellsbury.

Average Bases Allowed – Starters.

Average Bases Allowed – Relievers.

By Ray Flowers