Player Profile: Michael Brantley

Why am I reviewing a guy who didn’t hit .300, who didn’t steal 15 bases, who didn’t hit 10 home runs, and who didn’t record 65 runs or steals? Why “waste” an article on Michael Brantley. Let’s see if I can explain why.

Let’s start with his lack of elite production shall we. It is true that Brantley didn’t hit .300 (he batted .288). It is true he didn’t steal 15 bases (he stole 12). He didn’t drive in or score 65 (he had 60 RBIs and 63 runs scored). He also only went deep six times. But I’m telling you, there is plenty to like here. If you were in an AL-only league Brantley was a strong option in the outfield. There were even times where he was worth starting in shallow mixed leagues such as May when he hit .296, knocked in 16 runners, scored 15 times and stole seven bases (read those numbers again to let the impact sink in). And let me tell you, though it doesn’t look like it at first blush, his overall effort was actually pretty darn solid. So here’s the payoff. How many outfielders in baseball, in 2012, hit .288 with six homers, 60 RBIs, 63 runs scored and 12 steals? The answer might shock you – it’s nine, and look at the list:

Mike Trout
Andrew McCutchen
Ryan Braun
Alex Rios
Carlos Gonzalez
Martin Prado
Austin Jackson
Yoenis Cespedes
and… Michael Brantley

He’s not on par with those eight, he never will be, but it just goes to show you that if you do a little bit of everything maybe you can have some quiet value.

The good.

Brantley hit .288 in the first half. He hit .288 in the second half. He hit .310 at home.

The bad.

He hit .265 on the road as his OPS fell .133 points from his effort in Cleveland.

The good.

Brantley’s walk rate was a career best as his K-rate was a career-low. The result was an impressive 0.95 BB/K ratio that, simply put, is an excellent number.

The bad.

He has little homer power though he did rap out 37 doubles.

The good.

He knows what he does well, and he just goes out and does it. He hits line drives – 20.2 percent or better in his four seasons – and his ground ball rate has been between 47.9 and 48.7 percent the past three years.

The bad.

What you see is what you get.

Brantley will not hit 20 homers.
Brantley will not drive in 100 runs.
Brantley will not score 100 runs.
Brantley will not steal 25 bases.

But, and it’s a deserving but, he’s a good ballplayer who does a little bit of everything. He’s only played two full seasons in his young career, and the seeds of growth are here. I’m especially intrigued by the significant plate discipline growth Brantley showed in ’12. If he can continue along with a K/BB mark around 1:1, we could see Brantley sneak into the .300′s in 2013. With that, let me ask you this. I know that .288-6-60-63-12 looks pretty boring, but what if that line turns into .300-10-75-75-15 in 2013? Would you be interested then? Those numbers are possible, maybe not probable but possible, with Brantley. Given that his draft day cost will be rather inexpensive, he would seem to profile as a strong 5th outfield option in mixed leagues in 2013. Remember that on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Tomlin

Why am I bothering to write about a guy who had a 4.25 ERA in 2011? How about because he had a WHIP of 1.08 that was 7th in the American League. Yeah, that’s right, Josh Tomlin was an elite option in WHIP last season. Does that make him an elite option in the fantasy game? You already know the answer to that is no, but what if I ask this question – is Tomlin someone you’ll want to target in AL-only leagues in 2012?

Since I already mentioned it, I’ll touch on it briefly. Tomlin had a better WHIP than Michael Pineda (1.10), David Price (1.14) and Jeremy Hellickson (1.15) in the AL, while he posted a better mark than NL hurlers like Tim Hudson (1.14), Zack Greinke (1.20) and Tim Lincecum (1.21). Pretty phenomenal Mr. Tomlin.

The other aspect of Tomlin’s game that was impressive was his ability to chew up innings. Only once in 26 starts did he fail to last five innings, and just three times in 26 starts did he fail to record at least six innings. That’s pretty amazing in this day and age isn’t it?

With that I will end the happy thoughts with Tomlin. You might be saying ‘but Ray, he went 12-7 and surely he should get some love for that right?’ I would respond by saying that’s a strong record certainly helped by the fact that he worked deep into games, but wins and loses are simply not easily projectable, so I don’t pay as much attention to those two categories as others do.

As for his performance, here are my concerns.

(1) His ERA was solid at 4.25, but the big league average in 2011 was 3.94, so clearly his ERA wasn’t that good now was it?

(2) Tomlin just doesn’t strike anyone out. Look at the numbers. I want my starters to have a K/9 mark over six at a minimum (the big league average in 2011 was 7.13). Tomlin posted pathetic 5.30 mark in 2010 before his K/9 fell to 4.84 in 2011. He simply stinks in this category, so badly in fact that it nearly wipes out the positivity of his WHIP success. A starting pitcher who has an upside of 110 Ks if everything breaks right doesn’t excite me, at all.

(3) You cannot expect Tomlin to walk merely 1.14 batters per nine innings like he did in 2011 moving forward. The guy walked 21 batters in 165.1 innings as he cut in half his already impressive BB/9 mark of 2.34 from his rookie season. That 1.14 rate is not sustainable.

(4) Tomlin gets beat around the yard frequently allowing the ball to end up in the seats. After posting a 1.23 HR/9 mark in 2010, that number inched upward to 1.31 in 2011. Tomlin posted a 0.95 GB/FB ratio, well below the big league average of 1.10.

Look, here’s the simple truth.

Tomlin doesn’t strike out enough batters to be “average” in that category.
Tomlin will almost certainly see his walk rate increase in 2012.
Tomlin’s GB/FB rate is sub par.

So if you have a pitcher with those traits, do you really think that he has a chance to produce a 1.08 WHIP on a consistent basis? I have zero faith that he will be as effective in 2012 — think Trevor Cahill and the regression he faced moving from 2010 to 2011 (see his Player Profile). So, will I target Tomlin in an AL-only league? There’s no chance of that happening, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a solid option in that setup though one that has some serious warts.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Asdrubal Cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera was about as good as it gets in 2011. Cabrera was so good in fact that it can be argued, persuasively, that he was the best American League fantasy shortstop in the just completed season. Is there any chance in hell he will be able to repeat his bust out campaign in 2012?

In 2011, Cabrera hit 25 homers. Only two other shortstops had more (Troy Tulowitzki and J.J. Hardy had 30).

In 2011 Cabrera posted a .460 SLG. Only one other shortstop who qualified for the batting title bettered that – Jose Reyes (.493).

In 2011 Cabrera had 92 RBI. Only Tulowitzki had more with 105.

In 2011 Cabrera scored 87 runs. Only three shortstops had more: Jose Reyes (101), Elvis Andrus (96) and Starlin Castro (91).

In 2011 Cabrera stole 17 bases. Thirteen shortstop eligible players stole more bags, but no other shortstop who stole that many bases also hit 20 homers.

I wasn’t kidding when I said he was the best fantasy shortstop in the American League. So what’s the problem with building your team around Cabrera in 2012? Here we go.

(1) Cabrera hit .273, eight points below his career mark of .281. This doesn’t look so bad until you realize the drastic swing his performance took last season. Cabrera hit .330 in May, and then it was all downhill from there. Here are his monthly totals thereafter: .297, .266, .239 and .234. That translates to a .293 mark before the All-Star game and then .244 after the break.

(2) Cabrera hit 18 home runs from 2007-2010. That isn’t a misprint. He hit 18 homers in 1,415 at-bats before he went Kirby Puckett on everyone (I should also point out that he hit just 27 homers in 1,655 at-bats during his minor league days). How in the world was he able to blast 25 homers in just 604 at-bats last year?

(A) Cabrera had posted a GB-rate of 48.0 and 51.7 percent in 2009 and 2010. In 2011 that number tanked down to 43.8 percent. Conversely, his fly ball rate, under 31.5 percent in 2009-10, went up to 38.7 percent in 2011. Hitters don’t normally completely flip flop their performance like that in one year.

(B) In addition to all the extra fly balls, Cabrera also managed to jack up his HR/F ratio, and when I say ‘jack up’ I’m not kidding. Here are the HR/F rates of Cabrera in his first four seasons: 6.3, 6.7, 4.7 and 3.0 percent. In 2011 that mark was 13.3 percent. Cabrera doubled his previous career best folks. Established hitters don’t normally sustain jumps like.

Could A and B repeat themselves in 2012? It’s certainly possible. But I’ll tell you the same thing I said about Joe Mauer in 2009 when he hit 28 homers and I predicted that he would regress (he fell to nine homers by the way with his follow up effort) – players just don’t double their HR/F ratios from one season to the next when they’ve already established a baseline.

(C) Because of all the extra fly balls, Cabrera’s GB/FB ratio did a total flip flop in 2011 as well. In 2009-10 his mark was 1.60 and 1.65. In 2011 that mark fell all the way to 1.13. Again, players simply don’t sustain drastic changes like that very often.

Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average. However, you can say that about an awful lot of middle infielders. The real key for Cabrera will be whether or not he will be able to sustain the massive power spike he flashed in 2011. It’s possible that he will remain at that level, there are no certainties in this life, but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Grady Sizemore

“We don’t expect Grady Sizemore to play 150 to 160 games like he has in the past,” said  GM Chris Antonetti. “But we expect him to play the vast majority of games next year.” Is that the quote you wanted to read if you were hoping that Grady Sizemore would have a big bounce back season in 2012? Despite the proverbial bar being set extremely low, the Indians invested a relatively minor $5 million backing Sizemore on a one year deal to allow him to return to Cleveland (there are incentives worth $4 million based upon plate appearances an another $500,000 that he could pick up if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year award). How should Sizemore be viewed in the fantasy game for 2012? With extreme caution in my book.

From 2005-2008 Sizemore was easily one of the top-10 outfielders in the fantasy game. In that four year span the average Sizemore effort resulted in 27 homers, 29 steals, 81 RBI and 116 runs scored.  Each of the four years he went at least 20/20 with 100 runs scored, and in 2008 he upped the bar to include 33 homers, 90 RBI and 38 steals (all three of those numbers were career bests). Then, the bottom fell out for Grady. He appeared in just 106 games in 2009. He followed that up with a mere 33 games in 2010. In 2011 things got better, but only marginally, as he appeared in 71 games. Injury after injury with the guys wheels kept him out of action. As a resulted of all the issues with his knees, Sizemore has not only been unable to drag his body out onto the field with any regularity, he’s also failed to generate any type of productivity when he has been on it.

Grady has stolen a mere 17 basses in his last 210 games played. Remember, this was a guy who averaged 29 steals a season over his last four healthy campaigns. Just as disconcerting for Sizemore is the fact that he not only stopped running, he stopped hitting as well. In 832 at-bats over the past three seasons Grady has batted .234 which is .029 points below the league average and .035 points below his career mark. Sizemore also produced a mere .314 OBP, .017 points below the league average and .043 points below his career mark. Finally, his SLG was .413, .006 points below the league mark and .060 points off his career mark. Don’t forget either, that when I say his “career mark” I’m including the poor numbers we’ve seen from him the last three years. If we remove those three awful years, the gap at each number grows substantially. From 2004-08 his slash line was .279/.370/.491 compared to his marks the last three years of .234/.314/.413. That’s like comparing Curtis Granderson to Vernon Wells. I also neglected to mention that he has hit a total of 18 homers over his last 832 at-bats or one every 46.2 at-bats. Prior to the onset of injury, Sizemore averaged a homer every 24.3 at-bats.

So Grady has stopped running, and it would appear he’s also stopped hitting. He’s now coming back off yet another procedure (Sizemore had surgery on his right knee in October, and he never really seemed to make a full recovery from a much more serious microfracture operation on his left knee prior to the 2011 season). While everyone is putting on a happy face, the truth is that it’s been four years since we saw the “real” Grady Sizemore. It’s been four years since he hit at the major league level. It’s been four years since he got on base at the major league level. It’s been four years since his SLG was at the major league level. It’s been four years since he stole bases at anything resembling his previous all-star levels. Now we get his own GM telling the world that the team hopes he will be able to play most of the time in 2012 but that even they aren’t expecting that to mean that he will take the field 150 times in 2012. Does that sound like a guy you want to be rolling with in your fantasy league?

Draft Sizemore at a point where you feel comfortable that his performance will match his cost. Do not draft Sizemore at a point where you think his cost will match his performance. It’s been years since we’ve seen the Sizemore that we all remember building our fantasy rosters around, an until I see that Sizemore on the field, I’m not going to reach for Grady on draft day. If you take a shot on him as your 4th or 5th outfielder in a mixed league, I’d be fine with that, but know full well that the chances of him going 20/20 with 100 runs scored in 2012 is about the same as it is that Mr. Wells will pull off that same trick for the Angels.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 13, 2011

(1) Carlos Pena finally hitting. Be wary though.

(2) Magglio Ordonez (ankle) to the DL. Brennan Boesch to take over. For more on Boesch see Buy or Sell – AL Version.

(3) Delmon Young and Logan Morrison come off the DL.

(4) Joe Nathan improving – up to serving as a setup man for Matt Capps.

(5) Grady Sizemore missing time with a knee issue for Indians.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 27, 2011

(1) Andre Ethier has record 24-game hitting streak.

(2) Dodgers have no clue in 9th inning.

(3) Carlos Santana really struggling

(4) Reliever closing in on returns – Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 16, 2010

(1) Justin Morneau to DL.

(2) Doug Davis to DL. Yovani Gallardo likely not to need minor league work.

(3) Edison Volquez to start on Saturday.

(4) Jordan Zimmerman closing in on possibly August return.

(5) Chase Utley has cast removed.

(6) Shin-Soo Choo hopes to avoid surgery on thumb.

(7) Josh Beckett may need one or two more minor league starts.

(8) Mat Latos to DL with side strain – from a sneeze?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 21, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion was demoted then designated for assignment by Blue Jays.

(2) Ryan Franklin will likely retire after the 2011 season.

(3) David DeJesus is on fire in June, and he’s also on the trade market.

(4) Mariano Rivera has retired 21-straight batters. He has lost nothing with age.

(5) The Yankees will skip the next turn in rotation for Phil Hughes.

(6) Rookie update – Carlos Santana hitting .393 in nine games. Mike Stanton hitting .233. Stephen Strasburg sets record with 32 Ks in first three starts.

(7) David Aardsma might be on the trade block, and if he is, many teams will be interested.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May27, 2010

(1) No new injury with Jacoby Ellsbury. A DL trip is still possible though. Victor Martinez also out with his toe issue.

(2) Carlos Zambrano has appendicitis? A report says he was taken to the hospital.

(3) Carlos Marmol on amazing K pace – a historic one.

(4) John Ely is the real deal for the Dodgers.

(5) Matt Lindstrom blows 1st save chance in 23 tries.

(6) B.J. Upton struggling terribly in May.

By Ray Flowers