2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Hits

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

HITS

Brandon Morrow (#21): He was exactly the pitcher I expected him to be this year with impressive ratios (2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), an a solid K-rate (7.80, though that was about two batters below what I also expected, so it wasn’t a 100 percent hit). The only issue was lack of health as he was able to make only 21 starts.

Gio Gonzalez (#27): Led the majors in wins (21), had his first sub three ERA (2.89), a career best WHIP (1.13) and his first 200 K season (207). Was the second best left hander in the NL behind Clayton Kershaw and seems like a lock to end the year as a top-5 performer in NL Cy Young voting.

Max Scherzer (#28): A frustrating own at times due to his up and down performance from start to start, Scherzer ended up having one hell of a season. Not only did he win 16 games but he also posted a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, his claim to fame was the punchout. Scherzer had the second most strikeouts in baseball with 231 (eight behind teammate Justin Verlander), and his K/9 mark of 11.08 was the 19th best single season mark in the history of the game (min. 162 IP). Only Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Kerry Wood, Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, Hideo Nomo and Curt Schilling ever bettered the K/9 mark.

James McDonald (#66): He always had the arm but never the consistency. While you can still make that argument after his epic second half collapse (7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP over his last 13 outings), he was so good in the first half (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 100 Ks in 110 IP), and was so cheap on draft day (he likely wasn’t drafted until the 25th round or later in mixed leagues), that his overall effort was still solid (12 wins, 1.26 WHIP, 151 Ks in 171 IP).

Jonathon Niese (#62): Niese won a career best 11 games, had a career best 3.40 ERA, an after 3-years with a WHIP in the 1.40′s he dropped that number down to 1.17. Two years running now he has also posted a K/BB ratio of better than 3:1. He’s not likely to improve upon his 2012 numbers, but he doesn’t need to in order to be a solid depth arm in mixed leagues.

Chris Capuano (#72): Some will see the three victories and 4.76 ERA over his last 15 starts. That is being shortsighted. What should be seen is his overall effort, his best since 2005. Finishing just five outs short of his first 200-inning season since 2006, Capuano won 12 games with a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (both ratios are career bests). Like Niese, he’s now posted a K/BB ratio of 3:1 in each of the last two years.

Chris Sale (#73): Sale tossed 33.2 innings in 2010, 71 in 2011, and then a whopping 192 in ’12. There were issues most of the year with his arm – he was moved to the bullpen at one point and was given extra rest between starts when the White Sox could – but in the end the effort was a truly dominating one for the young lefty as Sale won 17 games, posted 192 Ks in 192 innings, and had two sparkling ratio numbers (3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). The massive IP increase is a concern, but this is one dynamic skill set.

Bronson Arroyo (#89): For the 8th straight year Arroyo threw at least 199 innings, and for the 4th time in five seasons he won at least 12 games. He also posted a 3.74 ERA, his best mark in six years, while his WHIP of 1.21 was just the second time that mark has been under 1.25 since 2007. He doesn’t strike anyone out, his 5.75 K/9 mark is bad, but he’s a solid innings eater who won’t kill your ratios in mixed leagues.

Ivan Nova (#103): From my Player Profile on Nova before the year started. “… pitchers can have a ton of extended success with a skill set like this, but that doesn’t mean they should be guys you target in the fantasy game… Keep expectations in check with Nova, and that means realizing Nova is a 4/5 starter in mixed leagues and nothing more.” The good – Nova won 12 games and had 153 Ks displaying a yet unforeseen ability to strike batters out (his K/9 mark hadn’t hit 5.60 in his first two seasons but somehow rose to 8.08 in 2012). The bad? He allowed a ton of homers (1.48 per nine), saw his ERA skyrocket (5.02), and that WHIP was a career worst as well (1.47). He was exactly what I thought he would be, despite so many other fantasy folks pushing him as a better option than I thought he would be.

Jeff Samardzija (#108): One of the keys to my NL LABR team’s success (I purchased him for a mere dollar at auction), JS had a sensational first season as a starter for the Cubs. For more on Samardzija see my September 13th Mailbag column.

Tom Milone (#112): A strong end game grab who came into the year with just 26 innings of big league experience. He struck out a few more batters than expected (a 6.49 K/9) and he simply didn’t beat himself (1.71 walks per nine) leading to an impressive 3.81 K/BB ratio. The rookie lefty won 13 games, had a 3.74 ERA an a 1.28 WHIP for the cost of peanuts on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat: At the Break

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray break down some guys to be grabbing in keeper and dynasty league and talk about a few players and what they expect from their 2nd half.

Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Ivan Nova, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes and more…

Listen to the Audio.

Daily Joust – Wk 10: Did We Learn Anything?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Clay Buchholz (+112, $339,000 in Daily JoustSalary)
He’s got a 5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and the last time he was worth anything in the fantasy game was 2010. Still, the seeds of improvement are here. Over his last three starts he has allowed four runs and four of the last five times out he’s allowed two or fewer runs. A big key? He’s reigned in the walks with only four in his last three starts. Still, I’m not a huge fan. I just don’t like his overall game.

Jonny Gomes (+24, $79K)
The guy has power. He has five homers this year in 107 at-bats, and dating back to last season he has gone deep 19 times in 418 at-bats. At the same time he has hit .211 in that time – he’s hitting .215 this year – though he does have a rather impressive .333 OBP given his lowly average. He’s nothing more than a depth option in AL-only leagues since he’s really not a very good hitter against right-handed pitching.

Ian Kennedy (+97, $329K)
Kennedy has allowed a total of one run in his last two starts as he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13.2 innings. Kennedy was never going to match his performance from last year (21-4 record). Wasn’t gonna happen. Still, his K/9 rate of 8.44 is up from last season (8.03) while his BB/9 rate is the same at 2.26. Honestly though, he’s pitched pretty similar to what he offered last year (xFIP was 3.50 last year, this year it’s 3.86).

Miguel Montero (+19, $84K)
Montero has two homers and seven RBI over his last five games signaling that perhaps he is finally on the cusp of returning to the hitter everyone thought they were drafting this year. A season after hitting .282 with 18 homers and 86 RBI, Montero’s power is way down (four HR) while his average is also lagging (.249). I still believe he could be the hitter he was last year the rest of the way. Time will tell.

Wei-Yin Chen (+89, $264K)
He’s pitched well in his first 11 big league starts with a 3.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Still, his K/BB is 2.32. His GB/FB is 0.90. His BABIP is .283. His HR/9 is 0.94. The end result? That’s a whole lot of league average numbers isn’t it?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Dexter Fowler (-25, $91K)
Hitting .281 with a .382 OBP, people are starting to get a wee bit nervous with Fowler after 9-games without a homer and nine Ks in his last four games. Perspective people. Has he been cold for a week? For sure. Was he insanely hot the week before? You know this. He’s on pace for a 20 homers, 75 RBI, 90 run, 15 SB season. Hold fast.

Mike Moustakas (-19, $75K)
Hitting .273 with a .336 OBP, Moose has been solid but not great. The nine homers and 28 RBI put him on pace to be a top level option at third base in the power department, but he’s also hit only one homer in 10 games, and in 54 at-bats against lefties he has a .583 OPS. Still has a ways to go, but a solid start.

Ivan Nova (-74, $219K)
He’s 8-2 and he has a rather amazing, for him, 69 Ks in 77.2 innings (his 8.00 K/9 mark is more than two an a half batters above his career rate entering the year). He’s also allowed just one run in 15 innings over his last two starts. At the same time he’s got a 4.64 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and he’s allowed five or more earned runs in five of his last nine starts and his ground ball rate is on the decline (52 percent his first two seasons down to 47 percent). Tread carefully.

Bud Norris (-49, $182K)
On May 25th Norris had a 3.14 ERA. Now? That number is 4.65 as he has been blown up for 16 runs over his last three starts (12.1 innings). Obviously he’s struggling to get batters out at the moment, but he’s also struck out 18 batters in that time so he’s still providing some value. He’s likely not a 3.14 ERA guy, but I also don’t think he’s a 4.65 guy either.

Buster Posey (-20, $75K)
Hitting .290 with a .810 OPS, Posey is just about back to the hitter he was in 2010 when he took the Bay Area by storm. Still, that’s if we look at his overall game because after hitting .353 in April he’s hit a mere .256. He’s a legit .290 hitter though, so don’t expect his average to fall much further.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Starters

Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP

Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.

34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45

Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.

2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.

Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)

0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).

0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.

0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.

0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).

0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).

0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.

Some names that stood out, for good or bad.

0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.

0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.

0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.

0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).

0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ivan Nova

Ivan Nova won 16 games in 2011 and he pitches for the Yankees. Is that enough to get excited about this young righty heading into 2012?

When you pitch for the Yankees, everyone knows your name. When you win 16 games and only lose four outings, everyone really knows your name. When you go 8-0 in your last 11 starts, there isn’t a person in baseball who doesn’t know your name. Given all of that, I return to the question I just posed – how excited should you be about adding Nova to your roster for the upcoming season?

First off, and I say this all the time, broken record style, there is no way to predict wins and loses. Nova could pitch better than he did in 2011 and his record could end up being 10-13. You just never know. Second, Nova will be overvalued in 2012 because of his win total and the fact that he pitches for the Yankees, so don’t buy into that hype because if you do, you’ll likely end up being pretty disappointed. Why? Here are some reasons.

(1) Nova had a decent ERA of 3.70. Still, that’s not much better than the big league average of 3.94 in the ERA category in 2011. Additionally, Nova’s xFIP was 4.16 suggesting that his ERA might have been a wee bit artificially low.

(2) Nova had a decent WHIP of 1.33. Still, that’s worse than the big league average of 1.32.

(3) Nova had only 98 Ks last season in 165.1 innings pitched which equates to a 5.33 K/9 mark. That mark is nearly two full batters below the 2011 big league average of 7.13 per nine. As a general rule I never target a pitcher with a K/9 mark under 6.00 (really 6.50 in most cases). That doesn’t mean I won’t draft a guy with a K/9 mark that is worse than that benchmark, but I will never target an arm that can’t get out of jams via the punchout.

(4) Nova walked an average of 3.10 batters per nine innings. That is merely 0.01 better than the big league average.

So to wrap that little review up Nova was barely average in ERA and BB/9, while he was worse than big league average in WHIP and K/9 in 2011. Given the importance of strikeouts in standard 5×5 leagues, the deficiency in that category limits Nova’s value substantially. Add in the fact that wins are so variable, and that is another strike against Nova.

On the plus side, I have to give Nova credit for his impressive 1.83 GB/FB ratio, the result of an impressive sinker that resulted in nearly 53 percent of batted balls being pounded into the earth. Don’t get me wrong, pitchers can have a ton of extended success with a skill set like this, but that doesn’t mean they should be guys you target in the fantasy game. Tell me, which pitcher would you rather have rostered in 2011?

Ivan Nova: 1.83 GB/FB, 5.55 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP in 165.1 IP
Pitcher B: 1.77 GB/FB, 5.38 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 IP

Are there a lot of you out there who are going to rush to draft Pitcher B, Paul Maholm, in 2012?

Keep expectations in check with Nova, and that means realizing Nova is a 4/5 starter in mixed leagues and nothing more.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 16, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I get questions every day with people asking me to give my sage advice. Here are my answers to some of those queries.

I’m losing ground in saves. I have Brett Lawrie and Martin Prado for my last Util. spot. Would you trade either for Kevin Gregg?
– @we3kings00

One word – no.

Brett Lawrie is killing it. The uber prospect has hit .343 with three homers, eight RBI and a 1.121 OPS. Given the hype that he entered the league with after similarly crushing Triple-A pitchers (.353-18-61-64-13 in 69 games), his value has to be sky-high right now. He won’t keep up the average, that .375 BABIP is pretty darn high, and he’s hitting too many fly balls (50 percent) while converting to large a percentage of them for homers (23.1 percent). Still, this amazing start hints at the talent that Lawrie does possess and explains why everyone was falling all over themselves look to add him to their squad this year.

Martin Prado qualifies at third base in outfield in all leagues, and though he hasn’t played second this season, he appeared in 98 games there last year so he should be good to go there as well. As we get deeper into the season injuries are always an issue, as is potential playing time loss for some veterans to youngsters. That gives a guy like Prado, who qualifies at three spots, even more value because he can fill in all over the field. A career .300 hitter, Prado is at .274. I would expect that number to rise a bit. The reason is three fold. First, his BB.K rate of 0.70 is better than his career 0.58 rate thanks to a career low K-rate. Second, though his GB/FB ratio is 1.48, right on his 1.38 career mark, he’s managed a line drive rate of 14.7 percent. A career 19.3 producer in that category, he’s posted at least an 18.9 percent mark the last four years. Third, his BABIP is just .278. Now that isn’t surprising given his line drive rate, but again it is out of the norm for a guy who owns a .322 mark in his career. Like I said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit .300 from here on out because those numbers will eventually normalize (hopefully it will happen before the season ends).

Let’s break down the save. A 30 save performer averages five saves a month (the season is six months long). Therefore, it should be relatively easy to determine your chances of moving up, or moving down by using that as a baseline. Gregg has 17 saves likely meaning he will fall short of that 30 level. Not just that, he might be the worst full time closer in the American League. That’s not hyperbole either. Amongst AL hurlers with at least 15 saves he is last in WHIP (1.57) and second to the bottom in ERA at 4.11 (Matt Capps is last at 4.38). Gregg also leads the group with 30 walks leading to a simply putrid K/BB ratio of 1.30. That’s just pathetic. He’s also pitching poorly of late with a 6.17 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 1.22 K/BB ratio over his last 13 outings. I want nothing to do with him.

If you’re dealing either of your two hitters you should be aiming much higher than the bespectacled one from Baltimore.

Jason Kipnis, Mike Carp, or Delmon Young for power ROTW?
– @KenCaeti

Kipnis has certainly started off his career with the proverbial bang. He’s gone deep six times in 68 at-bats, a pace that would net him 44 homers over 500 at-bats. Considering that he hit all of 32 homers over his first 1,050 professional at-bats… do I need to even finish that sentence? It’s early so it’s tough to draw any conclusions, but Kipnis is going to have to cut his 29 percent K-rate quickly or that average (.279) could head south. With little hope of being a base stealing asset, Kipnis is likely to settle in as a moderate mixed play option the rest of the way at second base unless he can somehow sustain his unsustainable homer pace (look no further than his 38 percent HR/F ratio for a reason that he has no chance to keep this up).

Carp is totally out of control, an I mean totally. A .200 hitter his first 15 games in the majors this season, Carp has morphed into Adrian Gonzalez since the All-Star break. In 24 games he is batting .371, has six homers, has knocked in 26 runners and has posted a 1.041 OPS.  The question is, how long will it be before he realizes that he isn’t Adrian Gonzalez? His 19 percent HR/F ratio is a bit elevated, and with less than 34 percent of his batted balls ending up in the air, it would be a stretch to expect the power to continue at this rate, especially given his home park (still, he has flashed 30 homer power in the minors, so there is a reasonable expectation that the power will continue). More concerning is the 30 percent line drive rate and .411 BABIP mark. Ty Cobb couldn’t match that.

All of a sudden everyone wants to know about Young with his surprising deal to the Tigers. He should see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, and the move out of Minnesota should help as well since that’s a tough park to hit in. Still, he’s been a huge disappointment this season. Oddly though, he’s exactly matched his .312 BABIP from last season though he’s lost .029 points in batting average (.269), and his 0.32 BB/K mark is only 0.03 off of last year. Also, his 18.4 percent line drive rate is two tenths off his career norm, and his 1.31 GB/FB ratio is pretty close to his 1.44 career mark. What I’m saying is that he would appear to have a decent shot to improve his batting average the rest of the way.

So who to add? Young is the most accomplished hitter, but he’s no power threat – at all. Kipnis has been the best power bat of the trio of late, but there is simply no way he can sustain his pace. Therefore, if your goal is to add power to your lineup, I’d suggest adding Carp. Heaven help us.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Ivan Nova for rest of season?
– @tonyistheone

Sanchez has had a fine season and produced a great return on your investment. However, he’s performed poorly of late allowing at least four earned runs in four of five games. He’s also gone 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last six starts. Is he simply wearing down? It’s tough to be too hard on the guy as he has still exceeded his career K/9 rate by two batters (9.41) while dropping a full batter off his walk rate (2.58). He deserves better than his 6-6 record, and his ERA according to xFIP should be closer to three (3.05) than his actual ERA of 4.00.

Nova may or may not remain in the rotation for the Yankees. The good news fore Nova is that A.J. Burnett has a 6.17 ERA and 1.83 over his last six starts, Freddy Garcia doesn’t know how to use a kitchen knife (he cut his finger and had to miss a start) and Phil Hughes is all over the map looking good one outing then getting bombed (it looks like Hughes will likely be sent to the bullpen leaving Nova in the rotation). Nova has a win in seven of his last eight outings, and five times in that stretch he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs. Though he’s pitching better than Sanchez right now he’s giving away four strikeouts per nine (5.37) and is walking more batters (3.28 per nine). He makes up for it with an impressive 55 percent ground ball rate, and pitching for the Yanks obviously affords him a better chance to pick up a “W”.

If your goal is to target wins, something that is always a risk, then go with Nova. If you’re trying to move up, or maintain, your spot in the strikeout column, then Sanchez is the choice. How is that for an  answer?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Two All-Time Greats?

In today’s article I will discuss two of the best performers that the game has seen over the last 20 years. One could potentially be hanging up his spikes while the other is hoping to have his name called out in a couple of days when the Hall of Fame voting results are announced.

The Yankees Are in Trouble

Reports continue to trickle out that Andy Pettitte is legitimately leaning toward retirement (an announcement could even come within the next few days). This isn’t a salary push or anything like that, it’s simply a decision that Pettitte needs to make for himself and his family as he has apparently grown a bit weary of the toll the game has taken on his body. Here are the facts.

(1) He doesn’t need the money having made more than $125 million in his career.

(2) His place in history is secure. Pettitte has been one of the finest postseason pitchers of modern times, just take a look at the numbers: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 173 Ks over 263 innings pitched. As for his regular season work, he’s also been one of the best left-handed pitchers of recent times. Not just that, he profiles quite well amongst all lefties who have ever pitched as his total of 240 victories is tied for 12th all time with Herb Pennock and Frank Tanana. Pettitte also has a winning percentage of .635 in his career which is the 9th best mark of any left-handed pitcher in the history of baseball (min. 1,500 innings pitched).

(3) He was darn good last season, even at 38 years of age, as he went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Unfortunately he was limited to 129 innings, his lowest total of his 16 season career other than his injury plagued 2004 season. Given the struggles to stay healthy last season, it just sounds like Pettitte has had enough.

(4) If he doesn’t come back, as seems quite likely at this point, the Yankees are in big, big trouble. Here would be their projected rotation, sans Pettitte, if the season started today.

CC Sabathia: A worthy #1.

A.J. Burnett: Coming off his worst season (5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).

Phil Hughes: Won 18 games but had a 4.90 ERA after the break and has only one season of starting in
bigs.

Ivan Nova: He’s appeared in all of 10 big league games.

Sergio Mitre: Made only three starts last season and owns terrible career ratios (5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).

If you are a Yankees’ fan it’s time to pray to whomever you pray to because you desperately need Andy Pettitte to put off retirement for another year.

The Historical Place of the DH

Almost a year ago to the day I wrote a piece about Edgar Martinez and his Hall of Fame candidacy entitled Is There Room for a DH? In that piece I laid out my thoughts about the case of a man who was a Hall of Fame worthy performer, save for two significant points. (1) Martinez wasn’t given a full-time role with the Mariners until he was 27 years old, so some of his counting numbers just aren’t that impressive when placed in a historical context (he had only 309 homers, one less than Jay Buhner and 1,261 RBI, 10 less than Tino Martinez). (2) No full-time designated hitter has ever been elected to the Hall of Fame (Martinez played the field in less than 30 percent of his career games). Both points, on their own, could be enough to keep Edgar from ever being enshrined in the halls of Cooperstown.

At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account today there was some back and forth about the fact that Martinez deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. After all, DH is a position, to which I argued it’s a one way position. Martinez was a hitter, but would anyone call him a player? In my mind that means he will have a very difficult time convincing the voting body that he deserves baseball’s ultimate honor. Conversely, it can be argued that pitchers only do one thing – pitch – and no one has any complaints about hurlers making the Hall so perhaps people will be willing to overlook the fact that Martinez played most of his career without even owning a glove. In the end I wish that baseball would do the right thing and eliminate the whole debate by returning the game to its roots by riding itself of the abomination that is the designated hitter.

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By Ray Flowers