Mound Mayhem

Fantasy baseball revolves around two key things – hitting and pitching (a genius statement I know). Today I’ll break down some of the arms on the hill. Which underperformering arms should you be looking at? What will the Cubs and D’backs do in the 9th inning? I know, riveting ain’t it?

Yovani Gallardo is always up and down. It’s been more down than up though this season, and that is causing concern. He does have a win in three of four outings, and he’s walked two or fewer batters in six of seven outings. The K’s haven’t been there, just 26 in 42 innings, and his velocity is down 1.5 mph from his career mark, but I’d bet on the K’s increasing as the innings pile up. He, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander are the only three hurlers with 200 Ks each of the past four years.

To see how others are evaluating Gallardo, don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Dale Sveum, the manager of the Cubs, said that Kevin Gregg will remain the Cubs’ closer even when Kuji Fujikawa returns from injury. That is a horrible decision. Gregg went for at least 22 saves from 2007-11, but he was never good. I mean they ‘he’s done it before’ argument is just a horrible one to hang your hat on Mr. Sveum. Oh, and the ‘he’s been great this year” argument is horrible as well. You can’t say that 7.1 scoreless innings matters much in the grand scheme. Here are the facts. (1) Gregg has an ERA under 4.37 in one of the past four years. (2) The last time he had a WHIP under 1.30 was 2008. (3) The last three years his K/BB ratio has been under 2.00. (4) His 0.97 career GB/FB ratio is poor. It might look good now, but the Cubs will eventually rue this decision – or maybe their bullpen is just that bad.

Just cause. The lovely Kate Beckinsale.

Ubaldo Jimenez has a 6.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He’s struck out 27 batters in 29.2 innings, and batters are hitting .219 against him. He’s also allowed two runs over his last two outings, both victories. It’s also nice to see his GB/FB ratio back in the 1.40 range after dipping all the way down to 1.00 last year. He’s still getting pounded deep, his 1.52 HR/9 mark is literally double his 0.74 career mark, but that should come back to earth, at least a little bit. He’ll never be the arm he once was but maybe he’ll end up being a solid AL-only arm before it’s all said and done (how scary is it to read his velocity number the last four years – 96.1, 93.5, 92.5 and 91.6 mph?).

Scott Kazmir has made three starts with a 6.28 ERA and 1.67 WHIP for the Indians. Consider me shocked (not really). He has struck out more than a batter per inning for those looking for a positive and his fastball has been sitting at 91 mph, not bad for a guy who couldn’t crack 88 mph in 2011. Still, please tell me you aren’t holding out hope of a return to prominence.

J.J. Putz has a forearm issue, and it sounds like there is a chance he could end up on the DL. Who takes over if that happens? It seems like the only question I get on a daily basis – who is working the 9th inning? OK, it’s not the only question, but it is literally something like a third of the questions I receive – the bullpen one. Anyway, here are the three options for the Diamondbacks if Putz is down and out.

Heath Bell saved at least 40 games from 2009-11. He sucked eggs last year (5.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). He’s been better this year but that’s not saying much (4.73 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Bell has punched out 19 batters while walking only three over 13.1 innings, so he’s actually pitched decently despite the ratios.

David Hernandez has struck out 16 batters in 15.2 innings. However, he’s also seen a big increase in his walk rate, up from 2.90 per nine last year to 4.60 per nine this year. He should see that number come down a bit. Also, like so many others who are struggling, he’s been the victim of the long ball. In 2011 Hernandez allowed four homers in 69.1 innings. Last year he allowed four homers in 68.1 innings. This season he’s allowed four homers in 15.2 innings. I’ll leave it to you to delineate the outlier.

Matt Reynolds has made 17 appearances this season without allowing a run. That’s pretty good. He’s also walked only one batter while striking out 14 in 16.1 innings. He’s rocking and rolling. He’s also left-handed and has only two saves in 182 career outings.

Hernandez is the guy I would roll the dice on, though late word is that it is Bell who will be installed as the closer if Putz hits the DL as expected.

It’s Ryan Vogelsong week if judged by my email box. Everyone is wondering what is wrong with the Giants’ righty with the 7.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. My thoughts. (1) His 7.71 K/9 mark would be a career best. (2) His 2.50 K/BB ratio is better than his 2.28 mark of two years ago and just under his 2.55 mark from last year. (3) His BABIP is .352. That mark has been in the .280′s the past two years. (4) His 1.14 GB/FB ratio is an exact match for last year. (5) His 4.27 xFIP is barely off last years 4.15 mark. (6) His HR/9 mark is 2.06. If you add his mark the past two years you get – 1.56. That’s right, he’s currently allowing homers at double his career rate. That has to normalize at some point.
By Ray Flowers

Is It Time to Panic?

 

I get questions all day from folks. Many of them come from people who are panicked about the struggling the players they own, while some come from folks who overestimate the value of the players on their roster leading them to think they’ve got the championship in the bags. In the following piece I’ll give my thoughts on a series of players and let you know whether you should be buying or selling in the fantasy baseball game.

I’M NOT WORRIED – BUY

Matt Cain – People have lost their minds. Giving up on Cain. Why? It’s AMAZING to me how much people panic with a guy like Cain who has been so rock solid impressive the past four years. It’s like nothing I ever say gets through to some people. Sure his ERA is 6.59, but I could care less. His 8.16 K/9 mark would be a seven year best. His 1.88 BB/9 would be a career best. Pretty sure his HR/9 isn’t going to stay at 1.88 as his career mark is a mere 0.78. And then there is this. His current 3.82 xFIP mark is exactly the same as it was last year, and 0.04 above his 2011 mark. His ERA’s in those two years were 2.88 and 2.79.

Ike Davis – He’s hitting .164 with three homers and six RBIs. Last April he hit .185 with three homers and eight RBIs. He ended 2012 with 32 homers and 90 RBIs. I’m not saying he’s a lock to get there against this season, but I’m just pointing out that he started out extremely slowly last year and by the end of the year he was a productive power force.

J.J. Putz – The majors leader in blown saves with three. The issue, as it often is, revolves around location. He’s walking five guys per nine innings right now. That will come down. The last two years he hasn’t even walked 1.90 batters per nine. The other issue is homers. He gave up four taters in 2010, four in 2011 and four in 2012. He’s already allowed two in nine innings this season. For 7-straight years his HR/9 mark has been under 0.80 (it’s been under 0.68 the last four seasons). Pretty sure that number isn’t going to stay at hia current 2.00 level. Putz also has 12 Ks in nine innings.

Giancarlo Stanton – He’s hitting .200 with zero homers. Last season in April he hit .247 with one homer. He ended the year with 37 big flies in a mere 123 games. I told you all, repeatedly, that he was not a .300 hitter. I also told you I was worried about his team situation and mental health. Can’t say I didn’t warn you as I was emphatic about saying I wasn’t going to take Stanton in the top-20 this season. At the same time, you’re nuts if you’re selling this talent for .80 cents on the dollar. You should be trying to add this power monster, not deal him away.

I’M WORRIED – SELL

Tony Cingrani – Through two starts he has a 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 17 Ks in 12 innings. Wow is right. Still, he’s no lock to even be in the rotation in three weeks as Johnny Cueto rounds into shape. Plus, Tony’s still throwing his fastball 81 percent of the time through two starts. That’s a huge number. Once teams start to pick up on his motion and the movement on his fastball the results will change, and I’m pretty sure he’s not going to be able to hold onto his 64 percent ground ball rate either.

Bartolo Colon – He’s 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He’s walked one batter in 26 innings. Come on now, has he turned into Greg Maddux? Colon is striking out less than six per nine and the last time he threw 165 innings in a season was 2005.

Chris Davis – Finally fell under .400 at .382. Here are the facts. (1) He has one homer in his last 11 games. (2) He has three RBIs in his last 11 games. (3) His walk rate is double the last two years. It’s highly unlikely he sustains that growth. (4) His K-rate is 33 percent of what it has been the five years. Pretty tough to think he maintains at that level. (5) His .413 BABIP is light years ahead of his career .339 mark. Career bests in homers, RBIs and average are certainly possible given his hot start, but there is nowhere to go but down.

Ross Detwiler – Wow has he been good. Through four starts he owns a 1.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also sporting a horrific 4.50 K/9 mark. If he throws 180 innings this seasons that’s 90 Ks folks. Ninety. From a starting pitcher. He’s also lopped off a batter from his BB/9 mark from the last two years, and he’s not going to hold onto all of that. His HR/9 mark has dipped more than 50 percent from his career rate (down to 0.35). He’s not holding on to that either. Oh, and his 88.2 left on base percentage is unsustainable. Heed the warning of his xFIP (4.20). See his Player Profile.

Paul Maholm – Someone sent me a note on Twitter that they were happy to be able to deal Stanton to get Maholm. I’m serious. From his Player Profile. “Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around… he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.” Seems like most aren’t heeding my advice here either. The two biggest things that stand out: (1) His .212 BABIP is nearly .100 points below his career .304 mark. Since 2006 that number has been between .281 and .327 every year. (2) His 8.54 K/9 rate is THREE batters above his career mark which is an unsustainable pace. He’s only had one season with the mark over six the past four years.

Jose Valverde – He’ll be called up and given a chance to close for the Tigers. Here are three of my Tweets about him from last night.

Have none of you seen Valverde pitch lately? ’12 = career WORST K/9 (6.26) & K/BB (1.78) hint at scary times ahead.

Valverde ’12 = LUCKY 3.3 HR/F ratio 1/3 of career. 0.77 GB/FB 2nd worst of 9 yrs. XFIP 5.01.

Jose Valverde K/9 last SEVEN years: 12.59, 10.91, 10.38, 9.33, 9.00, 8.59, 6.26.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June20, 2012

(1) Troy Tulowitzki having more tests run. Is his season in doubt?

(2) Mark Trumbo mashing with the big boys. Can’t keep it up, can he?

(3) Barry Zito caving – what a shock.

(4) Should you be worried about Ryan Cook? Maybe?

(5) Aramis Ramirez, predictably, is heating up.

(6) Shaun Marcum says elbow is alright.

(7) Bullpen updates: Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz and John Axford struggling while Carlos Marmol’s arrow is going up.

 

By Ray Flowers

Top-50 Relief Pitchers

Photo by Nick Fisher

 

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a collaborative effort with Paul Sporer. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers and relievers.

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

In this entry I’ll breakdown my top-50 relievers for 2011.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target as values in drafts. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-50 RELIEVERS

1 Brian Wilson

2 Joakim Soria

3 Heath Bell

4 Carlos Marmol

5 Jonathan Papelbon

6 Jonathan Axford

7 Neftali Feliz

8 Mariano Rivera

9 Andrew Bailey

10 Joel Hanrahan

11 Chris Perez

12 Jose Valverde

13 Matt Thornton

14 Jonathan Broxton

15 Huston Street

16 Brad Lidge

17 J.J. Putz

18 Francisco Rodriguez

19 Leo Nunez

20 Ryan Franklin

21 Drew Storen

22 Francisco Cordero

23 Craig Kimbrel

24 Joe Nathan

25 Frank Francisco

26 Jake McGee

27 Kevin Gregg

28 Fernando Rodney

29 Brandon League

30 Brandon Lyon

31 Hong-Chih Kuo

32 Ryan Madson

33 Luke Gregerson

34 Aroldis Chapman

35 Matt Capps

36 Jonny Venters

37 Rafael Soriano

38 Evan Meek

39 Kenley Jansen

40 David Aardsma

41 Daniel Bard

42 Mike Adams

43 Chris Sale

44 Scott Downs

45 Koji Uehara

46 Joba Chamberlain

47 Brian Fuentes

48 Kyle Farnsworth

49 Alexi Ogando

50 Tyler Clippard

 

* I’d feel really comfortable with any of the top-15 closers on this list, then things start to get a bit spotty.

* Brad Lidge (16) has the full trust of his manager Charlie Manuel, so as long as he is healthy, even if his ratios are sub par, you have to think 30 saves are a given.

* J.J. Putz (17) has the skills to be an elite reliever – if he’s healthy.

* K-Rod (18) is a disaster off the field. On it, there are concerns about whether or not the Mets will limit his work late in the year since he has a clause in his contract that will give him $17.5 million in 2012 if he finishes 55 games this season.

* Leo Nunez (19) has all kinds of questions surrounding him after a late season collapse last year. Still, the guy got more than a K per inning last season and had a GB/FB ratio of 1.79. If he repeats those numbers, success will follow.

* Francisco Cordero (22) has Aroldis Chapman (34) to worry about, but I would be more concerned about the fact that his K/9 rate has fallen off a cliff. Look at his marks the past four years: 12.22, 9.98, 7.83 and 7.31.

* Young arms with strong skill sets can be found in the 20′s highlighted by Craig Kimbrel (23) and Jake McGee (26). Can Kimbrel throw enough strikes to hold off Jonny Venters (36) in Atlanta? Will McGee open the year as the Rays’ closer? I don’t know as the club might go with Kyle Farnsworth (48), but I expect McGee to have the better year.

* Good luck finding betters arms than hurlers 31-34: Hong-Chih Kuo, Ryan Madson, Luke Gregerson and Aroldis Chapman.

* Don’t forget about Mike Adams (42) in San Diego. I’m not certain that if something happened to Heath Bell that it wouldn’t be he, and not Gregerson, who would pitch the 9th inning.

* If the Rangers do the unexpected and ask Neftali Feliz (7) to fill a starting role, Alexi Ogando (49) could get a long look as the 9th inning arm since the club sent Frank Francisco (25) to the Blue Jays this offseason.

CATEGORY TARGETS

I’m a man of my word. On The Drive yesterday on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (5-8 PM EST, Sirius211, XM147), we received a call from Jeff in North Carolina. He asked me what “targets” he should look to attain when building a team in a 12-team league (i.e. how many homers he would need to hit to win a 12-team league). As I said on the air I would get him an answer, and here it is in the form of a link to an article written by fantasy baseball expert Shawn Childs. Enjoy.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7, 2010

With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.

Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.

Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?

Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.

Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.

Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.

Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.

Why is No One Paying Attention?

Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 9, 2010

(1) Drew Stubbs is a fantasy ace.

(2) Jose Valverde right elbow tenderness.

(3) Bobby Jenks has ulner neruitis.

(4) In my By the Numbers piece today, I gave a bunch of interesting numbers. Here is a review of a few including history possibly being set by Mat Latos, Dan Uggla and Carlos Pena.

(5) Carlos Gonzalez on fire – but poor on the road this season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 5, 2010

(1) Russell Martin could be done for year.

(2) Carlos Santana is done for year.

(3) Kevin Youkilis done for year.

(4) Kris Medlen likely done for year.

(5) Matt Capps, Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde all blow games.

(6) Jason Bay not close to a return.

(7) Will we see Carlos Delgado again?

(8) I love numbers, and in By the Numbers I point out some off the most interesting ones I’ve come across in the past 24 hours.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 22, 2010

(1) Angels deal for Alberto Callaspo, give up Sean O’Sullivan and William Smith. Rick Ankiel activated.

(2) Jamie Moyer has sprained UCL (grade 2), might need TJ Surgery.

(3) Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly on the block.

(4) Edison Volquez lit up by Nationals.

(5) Josh Johnson, 13-straight starts two or fewer earned runs.

(6) Bobby Jenks removed from closers role.

(7) Brian Roberts could return as early as Friday.

(8) Jacoby Ellsbury takes BP.

By Ray Flowers