Relievers: Wild Wild West

We’re less than a week into the fantasy baseball season, and already people are running to the waiver-wire to address the need to fill the saves category in the fantasy game (is this a great time to bring up why we should include Solds as the fifth fantasy category in place of saves? Solds is saves+holds, and it would give middle relievers as much of a chance to be productive as a closer, so instead of worry about who to roster cause you need a closer, you could simply add the best reliever and be done with it). I’m doing to address the hottest situations of the last few days – Nationals, Rays and Red Sox – right after I break down some thoughts on how everyone should be looking at these situations.

I know that everyone didn’t purchase the 2012 Baseball Guys Draft Guide, if you did you’re likely not in the predicament that some people now find themselves in, but here are a few salient bits of information that I suggested people keep in mind when putting together a team.

When choosing a reliever, target arms that:

Have a K/9 rate of 7.50 or better.
Have a BB/9 rate under 3.00
Have a K/BB rate of at least 2.50
It would also be great if they have a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or better.

* The article PITCHING TARGETS in the Draft Guide breaks these numbers down in much greater detail giving lists of pitchers that qualify.

This also brings up the point that I always preach:

Target skills, not roles.

I want the best pitchers on my team. I have no idea how/when/why a manger might change what he will do in the 9th inning. In simple terms – I don’t want a guy on my team merely cause he is the closer. I want a guy on my team who has the skills to be successful. At some point you need saves, and if you have to roster a guy with poor ratios to get them then so be it, but there is little reason to desperately try and grab “closers” with poor skills off the waiver-wire in the first week of the season. Remember that. It’s a long year, 162 games worth, and just cause a guy is set to close right now doesn’t mean he will be closing in August.

NATIONALS
Closer: Drew Storen (likely out until late April)
Replacements: Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez

This is a bad situation to jump into. It was announced today that Lidge and Rodriguez will alternate working the ninth inning game after game. If you’re in a weekly league, it’s almost impossible to use either guy given that fact. Even in a roto league, be very careful here. If Storen is back in three weeks as expected, how much are you willing to pay for 2-3 saves if you add either backup option?

RAYS
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth (elbow strain. No structural damage)
Replacement: Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, J.P. Howell, Jake McGee

Farnsworth could miss two weeks or two months, we don’t really know, though expectations are that he won’t be out long-term. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rays will go with a closer by committee situation. So what do you do here? Rodney is a disaster and his skill set doesn’t come close to matching my “rules” from above. Howell does have a strong skill set but he walks too many batters (4.19 per nine for his career), is left handed and he threw just 30.2 innings last season. That leaves Peralta as the best choice, not just by default either, but also because of his skills. The last two seasons for Peralta have led to some impressive numbers: 8.49 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 an a 4.07 K/BB. The only thing he doesn’t do is induce grounders (his GB/FB ratio for his career is atrocious at 0.66).

RED SOX
Closer: Andrew Bailey (thumb surgery, out 3-4 months)
Replacement: Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon

This is the situation that has me most surprised. Bailey goes down, he’s out at least the first half of the 2012 season, and the Sox name Aceves the closer. What ensues is a stampede to the waiver-wire to add Aceves as everyone suddenly seems to think he’s an elite closer. I’m not kidding. EVERYWHERE I look people are pushing, shoving, lying and stealing in order to add Aceves. A brief example of that is my Twitter Poll that I ran for two hours today. Of the four options people were given to add to their staff, Aceves was chosen 64 percent of the time. Why? I suggest it’s merely because he is a Red Sox (over at Fleaflicker it doesn’t seem that the craziness has taken full hold). Let’s break Aceves down.

His career K/9 mark is 6.26, well below the 7.50 mark I like to target.
His BB/9 mark is 2.70 for his career, below the 3.00 mark I like to target.
His K/BB ratio is 2.32, below the 2.50 mark I like to target.
His GB/FB ratio is 0.88, below the 1.50 mark I like to target.

Furthermore, even if you don’t like my targets, consider this.
His career K/9 mark is below the big league average.
His career K/BB ratio is one tenth better the big league average.
His GB/FB is well below the big league average.

To summarize, Aceves is a pitcher with average big league skills. Period. Just take a look at his xFIP. For his career that mark is 4.54, more than a run an a half above his 2.93 raw ERA. Simply put he’s the anti-Ricky Nolasco. Aceves is someone who has had success that he hasn’t completely deserved. Moreover, and people seem to be looking right past this, he has no experience in the ninth inning with four career saves. I’ve said it, but let me write it for you all one more time; Mark Melancon is a more highly skilled pitcher. His K-rate is better, he generates a significantly higher ground ball rate (his 2.64 GB/FB ratio last season is better than what you get when you combined Aceves’ marks the past two years – 2.52), and Melancon is the one who has experience working the 9th inning (20 saves last year for the Astros). Please heed my warning an avoid going all in on Aceves. If you do, the odds say that you will likely regret it.

By Ray Flowers

December Hot Stove

Here is a look around baseball with some exceedingly witty commentary from yours truly.

Quick Hitters

Lance Berkman – The Athletics seem to have him in their sites. He met with the club earlier this week, and a 1-year deal, similar to the kind that Ben Sheets signed with the club last year, seems to be coming down the pipe (Lance wants something like $8 million a year). Don’t count out the Rockies though – there is mutual interest there, though there may not be enough dough.

Ian Desmond – Apparently the Nationals are considering moving Desmond to help add depth to their starting rotation. He led baseball with 34 errors at short, but his future is very bright as he was one run from being one of only 22 players to hit 10 homers, with 60 RBI, 60 runs and 15 steals in 2010 and that was in his first big league season. Why trade that?

Adam Dunn – He wanted 4-years and $60 million – he got 4-years, $56 million from the White Sox. I have no issue with those numbers, not in the least. Neither should anyone else. I know he can’t play defense, but since 2004 Dunn is second in baseball with 282 homers, ninth in RBI (709), 15th in runs (657), fourth in extra base hits (496) and he’s sporting a .914 OPS which is higher than Hanley Ramirez (.905), Chase Utley (.901) and David Wright (.899) in the same time frame.

Zack Greinke – If he ends up with the Yankees that will be the worst match since the Yankees brought in Javier Vazquez – twice. Greinke would crumble in New York and if I was a praying man I would speak to the man upstairs that this proposed deal doesn’t come to fruition.

Kevin Gregg – He declined the Blue Jays offer of arbitration which will lead to the Jays getting a supplemental draft pick. Gregg should earn a multi-year deal from someone. You may not be aware of it, but Gregg is one of only seven pitchers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the past four years, and his total of 121 saves in that time is 11th overall.

J.P. Howell – He’ll be unavailable to start the 2011 season after shoulder surgery in May (he says he could be back by mid-April), and he hasn’t thrown a big league pitch since 2009. While its premature to think his career might be in jeopardy, you have to be concerned for the lefties future. I wish him luck with is long road back to the bigs.

Jose Lopez – He’ll be non-tendered by the Mariners, hardly a shock given that he is coming off his worst season in five years (.239-10-58-49-3 in 593 at-bats). Given that he owns a career slash line of .266/.297/.400 one can’t think that, in this economic environment, that he will find anyone willing to back up the money truck.

Jamie Moyer – The 48 year old lefty had Tommy John surgery on Wednesday that will knock him out of the 2011 season. Still, he isn’t ready to give up on his dream of 300 career victories (he has 267 wins). Moyer says he will target a return to action in 2012. If you aren’t rooting for him you must be related to Ebenezer Scrooge.

Oliver Perez – Reports out of the Mexican Winter League are that Perez is consistently sitting at 88 mph, with his fastball, but that he has been able to get his heater up to 91-92. He’s also thrown 10-straight scoreless innings. Add that up and I’m 100 percent positive that he will more than justify the $12 million he is to be paid in 2011 (dripping sarcasm). Goodness gracious.

Mark Prior – The Rangers are said to have interest in the one time phenom. Reports are that Prior has gotten his fastball back into the 91-92 mph territory, and with that speed he could have success as an arm out of the pen. He will never reach the heights that were once predicted, but I’m certainly rooting for him. Amazingly, he is still just 30 years old.

Robinson Tejeda – This is just the type of guy that teams should take a shot on. Why are the Royals willing to deal the cannon armed Tejeda who had a 3.54 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 61 innings last season? Because they are the Royals of course. Dating back to July 25th of 2009 Tejeda has posted a 2.97 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 8.84 K/9 mark over 112 innings. Who couldn’t use that?

Brandon Webb – Every team in baseball seems to be in on the sinker balling righty. Someone will give him a heavily incentivized deal to pitch for them in 2011, but if you talk to scouts they will tell you that his performance late in 2010, as he continues his attempted comeback from a shoulder surgery, was poor at best. Don’t forget that he has tossed all of four innings the past two years.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Uncertainty

Today I’m going to explain why it makes sense to trust yourself, and why your first “call” is likely the one that you should almost always go with. I’ll also touch on the plight of the injured Athletics, and a couple of NFL quick hitters that I just had to voice my thoughts on.

The Athletics can’t hit (they are last in the AL with a .233 batting average and just 75 runs scored), and they are also dealing with injuries all over the infield to the likes of Nomar Garciaparra and Mark Ellis (both have calf concerns) and the never ending health concerns of Eric Chavez. All of this likely means that Bobby Crosby could return to the lineup on a daily basis, especially if both Garciaparra and Ellis end up with long stays on the sidelines (they will at least be DL’d for 15-days). Crosby isn’t hitting his weight this season (.179 in 28 ABs), this after hitting .226 in 2207 and .237 in 2008. The A’s are in bad shape if they have to given Crosby 400+ ABs this season. Heck, if they give the at-bats to Jack Hannahan are they any better off since he owns a career line of .229/.317/.360 in 595 ABs?

Don’t you hate it when you don’t trust yourself? This weekend in the $100,000 NFBC tournament, I had a decision to make on who to add to my pitching staff when the A’s finally announced that Joey Devine was done for the year with elbow surgery. With Devine’s injury, he was the top closer I took on draft day, I’m left without a full-time closer in the 15 team league (30 players per squad). Ryan Franklin has been a great find, he was taken in the 25th round, but it’s tough to call him a full-time closer with the way Tony La Russa manages the Cardinals.

Anyway, I had to make a decision on who to add to my squad, knowing that I badly needed saves. I had three main choices I was considering: J.P. Howell, Santiago Casilla and Ryan Madson. Clearly Howell isn’t in line for saves in Tampa, but it was still hard to ignore his performance since the start of last season that includes some great work that I detailed in my Chopping Block article, including the best ERA in baseball since the start of the 2008 season amongst hurlers who have thrown at least 95-innings. Madson, he has been a lock the past two years producing an identical ERA of 3.05, and WHIP marks of 1.27 and 1.23. Solid skills, and a stable role, but no saves with Brad Lidge around. That left me with Casilla as my top choice since I have little faith at all that Brad Ziegler will be able to hold down the closers role all year. Casilla is off to a solid start with a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in his 11.1 innings, and he has allowed only three hits. If he can avoid his late season failures that have become too common place, and Ziegler is slowly figured out by batters as I assume he will be, then Casilla becomes a very sneaky and cheap pickup with saves potential (I only spent $12 out of a $1,000 FAAB budget to grab him). Now comes word that Lidge is dealing with a knee injury that shouldn’t, but could, end up with him spending some time on the DL. In fact, according to our injury expert Rick Wilton, this type of injury not only often leads to a stint on the DL, it even ends up leading to surgery in a minority of cases (you can read more about his injury analysis in The Baseball Injury Report.

All of this just goes to show you that trusting your gut is always the right move. In this case, that would have been to take Madson or Howell who are likely to me much more stable options than Casilla. If Lidge ends up needing time on the DL, care to guess how much Madson will go for in FAAB this week? I’m betting the bidding would hit at least hits triple digits. Oh, and yeah, that was a report you read this morning on Casilla injuring his calf on Tuesday night right? He will likely be shut down for a couple of days as a result. What is it I always preach– take skill over role? I should have taken my own advice.

I love how the Raiders do their own thing without a care in the world about what others think. Too bad they are never right.

Some team is going to give Michael Vick a shot once his prison sentence and NFL suspension are completed. Not only do I hope that team receives coal in their stocking come the holiday season, I hope the organization goes into a tailspin and doesn’t make the playoffs for a decade. The man is a deplorable human being, and for once I would like the owners in the NFL to stand up for what is right versus what could make them money. I can tell you this – there will be a whole lot of P.E.T.A (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) rallies everywhere Vick goes, and there rightly should be. Sometimes P.E.T.A is way too rabid for my tastes, but in this case, I stand with them.