Player Profile: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton is a borderline star in the fantasy game. If you take the season best marks from the elder Upton in the standard five offensive fantasy categories, you’d be staring at a guy with the following line: .300-24-82-89-44. Unfortunately, Upton also has hit a mere .257 in his career, has struck out at least 150 times in four of the last five years, and he always seems to be one play away from being benched for lackadaisical play. Currently ranked as the 20th outfielder according to MockDraftCentral, should Upton be going off draft boards earlier than his 64.5 ADP mark?

Let’s go season by season with Upton.

2007: He was one of nine players to go 20/20 with 80 RBI/Runs.
2008: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 85 runs.
2009: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 75 runs.
2010: He was one of two players to hit 15 HRs with 40 SBs and 85 runs.
2011: He was one of four players to go 20/30 with 80 RBI/Runs.

The point here should be obvious. As I mentioned out at the start of this piece, there are certainly issues with B.J., and in the fantasy game the biggest concern is certainly that poor batting average, but there is no denying that the guy can light up a fantasy score sheet. The thing that set apart Upton is that he posses solid power which he combines with elite speed. There’s simply no way around that. The past five years, here is what an “average” Upton effort has looked like: .257-17-69-84-37. For five years now Upton has nearly averaged a 20/40 season with 70 RBI and 85 runs. Those are big time fantasy numbers. Just ask yourself this question; how many guys in baseball can you say have a legitimate shot at 20 homers and 40 steals in 2012? It’s a pretty small group isn’t it?

As for his batting average, you’re just going to have to plan around that. Though he hit .300 in 2007, Upton has settled in as a guy who will struggle to get a hit every four at-bats (he’s been under .245 the past three years). What that means is that if you draft Upton you had better augment your club with a .300 hitter or two. The main reason that Upton isn’t going to hit much better than .250 is that he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats. Upton does take a walk though, even with all those punchouts he still owns a career 0.45 BB/K mark which is basically league average. Unless he suddenly figures it out at the dish, and the chance of that happening is pretty darn small at this point of his career, it just might be time to admit that Upton simply isn’t going to be someone who is going to help you in the batting average category.

In the fantasy game we like to down players for what they can’t do more than we prop them up for what they can do. Take the case of Michael Bourn. Everyone knows that he is the most consistent stolen base threat in the game, but most also look at him and say ‘he’s not a great fantasy option cause he never hits a homer and rarely knocks in a run.’ People fail to realize that his elite speed makes him at top-50 fantasy player every year. The same situation, at least partially, occurs with Upton. People get scared off by the poor batting average an overlook just how effective that Upton is on the base paths. Think of it like this. There are 10 men in baseball who have at least 130 steals the past four seasons. The only player in that group with 60 homers is Upton (he has 61). Not just that, only three men have 130 steals and more than 40 homers (the other two are Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford). Upton will never be truly elite in the fantasy game because of that lowly average, but if he were able to channel his 2007 self – the one that hit .300 – Upton could be a top-5 fantasy outfielder in 2012.

By the way, of you’re looking to do a mock draft, Fealflicker has you covered.

By Ray Flowers

Comments: Greatest Hits

At the bottom of all my articles readers are encouraged to leave their thoughts on my work, to ask questions, or just to blow off some steam. I have to admit that there are some pretty good queries thrown up there at times. Today, I’ve compiled some of those thoughts into an article since I doubt most of you spend much time reading my responses unless they are to your own questions.

Jake – Is there any sort of format that you might suggest that combines a season long roto format along with some type of playoff at the end of the season?

BBGuys - Your issue of people stopping to care late in the year is common. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good answer on how to stop this. Reason being is this – playoffs take skill out of the mix and go more with luck. Do you want to give someone a “win” in a playoff week because they picked up Brandon Crawford and he had a better week than Troy Tulowitzki? Do you want to reward a 2-start James McDonald over a one start Roy Halladay? When you break the game down into playoff segments the sample size shrinks, and with it the luck factor goes up. To me, we are best served rewarding year long excellence versus weekly luck.

Mike – As much as I love Evan Longoria this year, were you tempted with Jacoby Ellsbury still available? For him to fall to #12 seems shocking to me.

*** This questions refers to The FSTA Draft that was held in Vegas during which I chose Longoria #10 overall instead of Ellsbury. Over at Fleaflicker they also have Longoria going off the board after Ellsbury.

BBGuys - Here’s the deal. Only 37.5% all all the top-15 selections the last eight years have returned top-15 production (that’s from the Baseball Forecaster). In essence, we all spend way too much time worry about our first round pick when they are more likely to fail to live up to expectations than to meet or exceed them. Second, Ellsbury’s game was his speed, and after averaging 60 SB his last two healthy seasons he saw his steal total fail to hit 40 last year. That’s a big concern for me. Third, never in his life did Ellsbury show 30 HR power. Remember, he had 20 homers in his first 349 games. Players just don’t hold on to gains like the one he showed last season. Sure Kirby Puckett and Jose Bautista did, but you get my point. I just can’t see Ellsbury holding on to his 17 percent HR/F rate. I also don’t think he’s a .320 hitter. If he goes .285-20-75-100-40 is he a first round pick? You could certainly argue that persuasively, but I don’t know if that would make him much different than Andrew McCutchen.

Marc in CO – In addition to waiting on a 1B, you also waited to pick a SS (Yunel Escobar in the 13th). Can you give us your thoughts on him in specific and the shortstop position in general in terms of draft strategy?

BBGuys - I waited on the shortstop because that’s how the draft played out. Also, since I had two second basemen, I didn’t need to worry about my MI spot, so it was as much a combination of factors as anything else. As for Escobar, I like what he brings. Not much upside power wise, he hits everything into the ground, an obviously he’s not a speed demon, but his skill set is stable. Take out 2010 and you have three nearly identical seasons in 2008-09, 2011. I’ll take .290-10-60-75-5 from my SS and be pretty happy with it since in reality he is my MI behind Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia.

Rick – Are you worried about the suspension of Ryan Braun? Do you think it will be the same old same old when he returns? Also now that this is out here are you worried that his numbers will fall off a cliff like Arod?

BBGuys – I’m not worried about Braun at all. Just expect 2/3 of his normal production for 2012 and you should be fine (just check out his rookie numbers to see how amazing he can be in limited playing time). MLB has done testing for years, so clearly we have to assume that Braun hasn’t been doing something illegal for a long time. In fact, I’m still not convinced that he took “steroids.”  Regardless, Braun is 28 this year – still very young. Arod is 36. Arod’s decline had nothing to do with getting of the juice, he was simply experience a slow down with age. Remember, Arod had 54 homers, 156 RBIs and a 1.067 OPS in 2007 – he used steroids in 2001-03.

Wesley – Hey Ray. What do you think of Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez? I feel they’re going to be good values and bounce back guys.

BBGuys - Two different stories. CarGo hit .295, went 20/20, and scored/knocked in 90 runs last year. There’s not much to “bounce back” from there. If he had played another 20 games we’d be talking about a .300-30-100-100-20 season. Expecting more than that is asking too much.

Crawford on the other hand is a prime bounce back candidate. according to Fleaflicker’s numbers, Crawford is being drafted inside the top-70 overall.

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Batting

Yesterday I tackled the 2011 performance of pitchers, an if you know me you know that I’m all about symmetry. Today, I’ll break down some of the numbers that stood out for me when I looked at the hitters for 2011. Special thanks to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool).

For my review of some of the fascinating pitching numbers see A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching.

Asdrubal Cabrera hit .636 with 13 RBI last year in 11 at-bats with the bases loaded.

Miguel Cabrera led baseball with a 1.047 OPS against right handed pitching. That mark was .001 better than two other first basemen – Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder.

If you were an NL pitcher in 2011 and you were looking to get strike one under your belt then you wanted to see Jamey Carroll come to the dish. Carroll swung at only 6.9 percent of first pitches. The only other NL batter in single digits was Martin Prado (9.8). As for those that did let her rip on the first pitch three names topped 40 percent: Yadier Molina (40.7), Aramis Ramirez (40.6) and Freddie Freeman (40.1).

If you were a curveball specialist you didn’t want to see the Diamondbacks on your schedule as Chris Young and Justin Upton were 1-2 in the NL in OPS against the curveball (1.149 and 1.148). If you relied on the slider, you certainly didn’t want to see the Reds or the Phillies in the other dugout as the Phillies had three guys in the top-5 in the NL in OPS (Shane Victorino 1.111, John Mayberry 1.060 and Jimmy Rollins 1.060) while the Reds had three in the top nine (Ryan Hanigan 1.036, Jay Bruce 1.036 and Chris Heisey 1.014).

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League, and baseball, with 364 total bases. Teammate Adrian Gonzalez was second in the AL with 345 while Matt Kemp led the NL at 353.

Prince Fielder hit the longest home run in the NL at 486 feet. That’s hardly a surprise. However, the only other NL player with a homer over 480 feet was Juan Francisco of the Reds who hit on 482 feet on September 12th. No AL batter put one into the seats at a distance of at least 480 feet.

Derek Jeter failed to hit .300 as he finished at .297 for the Yankees. Blame his work against righties (.277) as he killed lefties to the tune of a .347 mark. For his career he’s hit .336 against lefties and .305 against the righties.

Matt Kemp loved seeing a lefty on the hill in 2011. His OPS of 1.142 was the best in the National League against southpaws. That mark was just behind the 1.156 OPS  of Jose Bautista against port siders, the AL leading total.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .394 batting average with runners in scoring position. He also posted a .990 OPS in those 155 at-bats. He didn’t slump much either when the situation was a runner in scoring position with two outs. In that scenario he hit .375 with a .930 OPS (72 at-bats).

Dustin Pedroia saw 3,077 pitches, the most in baseball. Only one other batter was over 2,900 and that was Curtis Granderson at 3,069.

There was only one leadoff hitter in baseball, who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances in that spot, who posted an on base percentage of .400. It was Brandon Phillips of the Reds at .417. Surprisingly the AL leader wasn’t Jacoby Ellsbury who was second at .381. The fella in the Junior Circuit with the best mark was the Royals… Alex Gordon at .383.

There wasn’t a single batter in the NL who was under the age of 26 that posted an OPS of .900. The leader was Justin Upton at .898 followed closely by Mike Stanton (.893) and Carlos Gonzalez (.889).

By Ray Flowers

On the Cusp

You remember back in April when Kay Adams bet me that Willie Bloomquist would steal at least 26 bases this season, one more than his career best? Willie ain’t gonna make it. What a shock. Bloomquist has 19 steals on the year, only 12 after the month of April, and for the first time ever he has been caught more than six times with 10 CS. @heykayadams on Twitter better get ready to sing that Neil Diamond song and to make that video she promised she would if she lost.

Melky Cabrera has 18 homers and 20 steals. So the team will push him hard the final couple of days to give him a shot at 20/20, right? Wrong. The Royals have already said that as soon as he gets to 200 hits that they will shut him down to give others some playing time. Cabrera has 199 hits making his dream of 20/20 likely nothing more than a pipe dream. Don’t worry Royals’ fans. Jeff Francoeur pulled off the 20/20 trick with 20 homers and 22 steals. That outing was shocking given that the last time he hit 20 homers was 2006, and that he had never swiped more than eight bases in a season. Since I mentioned both of those Royals outfielders, why not mention the third as well. Alex Gordon had the breakout season that was long predicted of him as he hit .303 with 23 homers, 87 RBI, 101 runs and 17 steals. How good was that trio of outfielders? Their average 5×5 line was .297-20-87-91-20. How amazing is that?

Albert Pujols is trying to extend his major league record run of .300-30-100 to 11-straight seasons. He’s already at 37 homers, but after going 0-for-7 the past two days his average has dipped to an even .300. He’ll need to keep the hits coming while knocking in two runs to extend his streak (he has 98 RBI on the year). He’s also scored at least 100 runs in 10 of 11 seasons. The one time he missed was 2007 when he scored 99 times.

Ben Zobrist has had an uneven season no doubt, but in the end he has been highly productive. The question now is will he get to some significant statistical milestones this year. He has 19 homers, 89 RBI, 97 runs and 20 steals. A big final couple of days could give him a 20-90-100-20 season. Since 2000, there have only been three players in the AL East who have reached all four of those totals in one season: Alex Rodriguez did it three times, Alfonso Soriano twice, and Bobby Abreu once.

Last week in Exclusive Clubs, I listed a whole bunch of players with unique power/speed combos. With three days left in the season, there have been some changes.

Jacoby Ellsbury went deep three times the last two days for the Red Sox and he now has 31 homers and 38 steals. What a bounce back season.

Matt Kemp has 37 homers and 40 steals. He could, could, sneak into the 40/40 club.

Ian Kinsler went deep twice in the last four games and he also swiped four bases. That leaves him one steal from a second 30/30 effort in three seasons.

By Ray Flowers

Exclusive Clubs

Every fellas dream is to be at some club surrounded by Playmates. I’m not embarrassed to say it, and neither should you be. However, it merely takes some cash or knowing the right people to get into that club – there’s no skill involved (you’d better have a lot of cash or some serious “game” if you want to stay in that club). You can’t say the same thing about the men listed below who unlocked the door to their clubs based solely upon their skills.

THE 30/30 CLUB

Ryan Braun has 31 homers and 31 steals. The homers aren’t a surprise, he averaged 32 a season his first four years in the big leagues. The steals are a surprise however. He stole at least 14 bases each of his first four seasons but his previous career best was 20 back in 2009.

Matt Kemp has 34 homers and 40 steals. That’s a career best in homers as he has upped his homer total every season of his career (seven, 10, 18, 26, 28 and 34). It’s also a career best steal total and the third time in four years he’s swiped at least 34 bags.

THE 25/25 CLUB

Jacoby Ellsbury is two homers away from joining the 30/30 club. He has 28 homers and 37 SB. He had 20 homers over his first four seasons and swiped 120 bases in his last two healthy season. Yeah, it’s been a confusing season.

Ian Kinsler has 29 homers and 25 steals. This is the second time in three years that he has reached those totals. He went 30/30 in 2009.

THE 40/20 CLUB

Curtis Granderson is having a masterful season for the Yankees highlighted by a career best 41 homers and 24 steals on the base paths (he needs two more steals to match his career best). His most impressive number this season though might be his 133 runs scored.

THE 30/20 CLUB

Justin Upton has 31 bombs and 21 steals. Not bad for a 24 year old who could get even better.

THE 20/30 CLUB

B.J. Upton isn’t the player that his younger brother is, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a highly productive ball player. B.J. is the owner of 21 homers and 30 steals for the Rays.

THE 20/20 CLUB

Carlos Gonzalez has 26 homers and 20 steals. It’s his second straight 20/20 effort.

Andrew McCutchen has 23 homers and 22 steals for the Pirates. He joined the club for the first time in 2011.

Chris Young, a teammate of Justin Upton, recently joined the club. He has 20 homers and 20 steals, the second straight year he has pulled off the trick and the third time in his career.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 14, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to some questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I’m solid in the power categories but need steals and runs. Should I trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury?
– @mushinske

Clearly you’ve got a deal here that would meet your needs.

Ellsbury has been his old dynamic force this season as his body is finally healthy. Jacoby has easily been a top-10 overall performer given his 5×5 line (.318-7-33-49-24), pretty much the same situation that existed in his last two healthy seasons of 2008 and 2009 (his 2011 totals are projections).

2008: .280-9-47-98-50
2009: .301-8-60-94-70
2011: .318-17-83-124-60

He won’t hit 17 homers this season, it’s not likely at least given that his current HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent (the mark was 7.0 and 4.6 percent in 2008-09). He’s also striking out more than ever before with a 17.0 percent whiff rate (career 13.6 percent) and it’s hard to fathom that he will be able to keep up his current LD-rate (25.5 percent) and BABIP (.362). Still, as long as he stays healthy it’s not difficult at all to envision him matching his level of performance from 2008-09.

Howard is well on his way to another 30 homer, 100 RBI season with 13 bombs and 53 RBI in 65 games. Howard has gone 30-100 each of this five full seasons in the big leagues, so it doesn’t take much analysis to suggest another such season appears to be in the cards. On the negative tip though, Howard has 11 steals in his career and hasn’t hit .280 since 2006. In the land of titans, that being the first base position, Howard is always a fine option, but his production doesn’t stand out if he is hitting 35 homers with 120 RBI versus the level of production he offered from from 2006-09 (4-straight years of 45-136).

Given your needs I give you my blessing to consummate this deal, though I wont be giving you a 20.5 carat ring like Kris Humphries did when he popped the question to Kim Kardashian.

Is there any way I should drop Yunel Escobar for J.J. Hardy who’s been heating up lately?
– @mattromeo

Escobar has battled the injury monster a couple of times this year, but he’s appeared in 61 of 66 games for the Blue Jays as he has re-established himself as a bona fide big league hitter after last years el floppo (.256-4-35). He’s already hit more homers this season than last, he has seven, and his total of 24 RBI is just 11 behind his putrid total from last season. Escobar was hitting .300 a few weeks back but he’s slumped to .129 in 31 June at-bats. Still, he’s third at the position with a .360 OBP and his 38 runs place him sixth, and he’s on pace (I know how everyone loves “pace” talk) to end the year with a line that looks pretty similar to what he has done in the past.

2008: .288-10-60-71-2
2009: .299-14-76-89-5
2011: .277-17-58-93-5

Escobar’s currently drawing more walks than ever before (11.4 BB-rate vs. career 9.6 percent), and his line drive rate is a mere 12.8 percent (career 18.1), so it would seem very reasonable for you to expect Escobar to continue along at his current rate of production, especially when he starts lashing a few more line drives.

Hardy hit 50 homers and posted 154 RBI in 2007-08 as one of the most powerful shortstops in the game (he was second at the position in homers and third in RBI). However, a variety of injures hit him the past two seasons as he averaged just 108 games player per year. Over those 216 games he hit just 17 homers while knocking in 85 runs as his production fell off the proverbial map. Injuries have once again limited him this season, he’s appeared in just 36 games, but the old power stroke is back as he has six homers and 19 RBI.

I don’t question the skills with Hardy. His BB/K rate, line drive rate, HR/F, BABIP — all of that is pretty standard fair for him when you compare his current numbers to his career rates. He is hitting a few more fly balls and a few less grounders which has helped aid the power output, but the concern over his health is what eats at me.

I’d keep Escobar. I have more faith in his ability to stay on the field than the oft-injured Hardy.

Scott Baker or Jordan Zimmerman going forward?
– @cstarlodi

It’s like everyone is all of a sudden coming to the conclusion that these two guys are both pretty good hurlers. In March when I released my Top-100 Starting Pitchers I had Baker at 53 and Zimmerman at 54. It may not seem like much now, but back then I got a lot of push back on those rankings. Obviously I’m not surprised that they have had success this season.

I get daily question about Baker, a fact I mentioned this in a piece yesterday titled Pointing Out the Obvious, and I’m not sure why that is. Baker is currently sporting a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, solid numbers but still not career bests (he had a 3.45 ERA in 2008 and in 2008-09 his WHIP was 1.18 and 1.19). He is sporting a career best 8.39 K/9 mark, a batter plus over his career rate (7.19), and though he’s never posted a mark over eight before, he does have the skill to sustain this level. He is walking more batters than ever before  (2.47 per nine), but his K/BB ratio is 3.39, just off his 3.37 career rate, because of the strikeout boost. The rest of his pitching line is pretty standard stuff for him which means solid production all-around.

Zimmerman started a bit slowly, especially in the strikeout column, but he has really turned things on his last eight outings during which time he has 47 Ks in 51.2 innings. With only 11 walks in that time his K/BB ratio since the start of May is an excellent 4.27, and check out his ratios – 2.26 ERA an a 0.99 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. His fly ball rate is a bit elevated this season though he’s been able to offset that fact with his HR/FB rate of 2.9 percent. He’s not likely to keep that up given that his career mark is right on the big league average at 9.5 percent, so that ERA could climb a bit, but this is a stable/strong skill set.

So who would I prefer to have on my roster? I’m going to suggest going with the veteran in Baker. Not only do we have a bit more of a track record with him, we also don’t have to worry about his innings pitched total being capped later in the year, a fact that any Zimmerman owner will have to deal with as the Nationals try to limit the workload on their young start who is returning from Tommy John surgery.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 6, 2011

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury has a 14-game hitting streak.

(2) Roy Halladay and David Price dominating.

(3) Roy Oswalt back acting up. Could he be DL bound?

(4) Jonathan Broxton to the DL.

(5) Joe Mauer still a few weeks away.

(6) Josh Hamilton could be back at end of May.

(7) Eric Hosmer called up by Royals. Who is Eric Hosmer?

By Ray Flowers

BABIP – An Early Look

photo © 2010 Chelsea N. | more info (via: Wylio)

You hear the term Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) mentioned along in the analysis of players, and today I’m going to break down a few of the players whose current BABIP marks are outstanding for one reason or another.

WHAT IS BABIP?

BABIP, also referred to as a player’s hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is one caveat with BABIP; it removes home runs from the equation, because technically the ball isn’t in play on a home run. Here is the simple formula in play for the measure:

(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

The major league average is in the .290-.300 range, but it should be pointed out that players tend to set their own baselines, and even if their batting averages are similar, they can have differing BABIP marks. Example:

Ichiro Suzuki has a .330 career batting average, Albert Pujols .330.
Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP, Pujols .313.
(Part of the reason for that is that Pujols hits 40 homers a year, and they don’t count toward a player’s BABIP mark).

With that brief intro, here are some early season outliers. To be fair, there really isn’t enough data to draw on for players in 2011, so this is more of a comparison looking at established levels than it is an indictment or thumbs up for the batters work through a couple of weeks of the big league season.

IN NEED OF TLC

.094 – Jorge Posada
Remember when I wrote that .290-.300 is the big league average? I don’t really need to break down how unlucky Posada has been this year then do I?

.162 – Jacoby Ellsbury
Players with big time wheels often exceed the big league average by a substantial amount because their legs allow them to beat out balls that the average player simply can’t. This situation makes Ellsbury’s low BABIP even more odd, especially since he has a .315 career mark. Ellsbury’s situation is bound to change, but he really needs to cut down on his Ks with 14 in 55 ABs this year or it won’t really matter.

All of the following batters are mired in terribly slow starts that will turn around in short order if history is an accurate guide.

.167 – Jason Heyward
.169 – Angel Pagan
.176 – Ian Kinsler
.179 – Carl Crawford
.182 – Brett Gardner
.183 – Chone Figgins
.185 – Dan Uggla
.197 – James Loney

The oddest name on that list might be Figgins. First off he has speed which, as mentioned, always helps. Second, his current mark is barely 50 percent of his career mark of .335. Third, he’s been hitting the ball hard with a line drive rate of 20.7 percent. It’s not quite up to his career level of 23.2, but it’s better than the big league average of 19-20 percent. Add that all together and it appears that Figgins is a great buy low candidate.

MIGHT BE TIME TO MOVE

The following players have marks that are out of this world right now, ones that hey have no chance in hell of being able to extend out for the course of the season (Austin Jackson led baseball with a mark of .396 last year). You might consider selling high on some of these guys, especially the ones that aren’t “household” names (obviously you’d only move the top-3 names on the list if you received a whopping package in return).

.500 – Matt Kemp
.456 – Andre Ethier
.444 – Joey Votto
.431 – Maicer Izturis
.426 – Alex Gordon
.421 – David Freese
.421 – Colby Rasmus
.410 – Travis Hafner
.410 – Nick Hundley

The last two names on the list deserve a mention.

Everyone is jumping on the Hafner train, and I fear that sucker is about ready to veer off the tracks. Maybe he is finally healthy after years of not being physically capable of playing everyday, but as a DH only eligible player he’s really going to clog your roster up if he stops hitting. Hafner’s career BABIP is .318, and only once in the last four years has he even reached that level.

Hundley is a catcher, so if he goes out there and hits .250-15-65 people will be happy, but some people seem to have the feeling that he might be the next V-Mart. He isn’t, not by a long shot. In his three previous seasons Hundley posted marks of .288, .303 and .293 in the BABIP column, so do you really think he’s going to be able to sustain a mark that is .100 points clear of that?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April8, 2011

(1) How imminent are the injury returns of Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy and Domonic Brown?

(2) Are the Red Sox in panic mode already? It seems like they might be.

(3) How good is Starlin Castro at just 21 years old?

(4) How out of control is Derek Lowe? Is he “breaking out?”

(5) Can Willie Bloomquist continue his torrid pace?

By Ray Flowers

Arbitration Avoided

It only seems like every player in baseball signed a contract today.

A whole heaping ton of players avoided the arbitration process today by agreeing to contracts with their current clubs. I wont bore you to tears breaking down names like Boone Logan (1-year, $1.2 million), but I will discuss the deals for some of the bigger names guys who agreed to remain with their teams without having to go through the acrimonious arbitration process.

Chad Billingsley ($6.275 million): In each of the past four years he has won 12 games, only four others have done that, and in each of the past three years he has at least 170 Ks (only 10 others have done that).

Matt Capps ($7.15 million): The Twins wanted to keep a reliever who could close in case that Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) isn’t ready to fill the role 100 percent of the time in the early going. They therefore agreed to a deal to keep Capps, who had 42 saves last year. This is a smart baseball move that gives the Twins a terrific fall back option if Nathan isn’t ready, but in terms of real world dollars, it’s a pretty awful move for the Twins. This isn’t the Yankees we are talking about, so the $18.4 million the club has invested in their 8th and 9th inning arms is exorbitant.

John Danks ($6 million): Evolving into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, Danks made $3.45 million last year. Amongst AL lefties the past two years he is 6th in ERA (3.75), 5th in base runners per nine innings (11.43), fifth in strikeouts (311) and fourth in wins (28).

Jacoby Ellsbury ($2.4 million): After playing only 18 games in 2010 this is a lot of money for Ellsbury. However, if he returns to health, pushes .300 with 90 runs and 50 steals, it will be a massive bargain for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza ($5.95 million): I broke down the Garza and his talents in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

J.J. Hardy ($5.85 million): A decent figure for both sides if Hardy is healthy. If he is in fact fully functional, he could hit .270 with 20 homers, and there are only a handful of shortstops who can match that.

Phil Hughes ($2.7): A reasonable sum to be sure if he is indeed a third starter. Hughes won 18 games with a 1.25 WHIP last season, but he was decidedly average in the second half of the year (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

Kendry Morales ($2.975 million): He could be a top-10 option at first base this season, so don’t forget about the guy who blew his knee out celebrating a walk-off home run in his last game of the 2010 season.

Jonathan Papelbon ($12 million): Yikes. You have to think he will be taking a pay cut next year when he becomes a free agent, but because of the arbitration process the Red Sox were basically forced to pay way to much money for a guy who, it can be argued, is coming off his worst season in five years as the closer. Luckily it’s the Red Sox who seem to have a printing press for bills in the basemen of Fenway.

Martin Prado ($3.1 million): The plan is for him to play left field. His bat is likely miscast for that role – at least in terms of it providing a lot of fantasy value – but for 2011 at least he will still qualify as second and third baseman leaving him with a ton of value. Oh yeah, he also hit .307 in 2009, .307 in 2010 and owns a career average of, you guessed it, .307.

Carlos Quentin ($5.05 million): He might always struggle to repeat his terrific 2008 season (.288-36-100-96 in just 130 games), but he has a nice power bat. If he can stay healthy he could be Adam Dunn Jr. hitting .250 with 30 homers.

Cody Ross ($6.3 million): He made $4 million last season when he had a merely average regular season (.269-14-65-71-9). However, he had big hit after big hit in the postseason (.294-5-10) which basically forced the Giants hand. He isn’t a good bet for anything other than an ordinary .270-20-75 season.

By Ray Flowers