Review: First Round, 2010

The first round of any fantasy draft is huge. There’s no surer way to ruin your fantasy season than to blow your first round pick on an under performing player, or one who ends up injured. At least that is conventional wisdom around most parts. However is it true when so many first round choices, year after year, fail to live up to expectations?

Here is a review of the first round for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft we did for our 2010 Annual Fantasy Baseball Magazine. How did our top-15 choices play out now that the 2010 season is complete (the NFBC’s main event is made up of 15-team leagues)?

One final note, in parenthesis is the ranking that each player finished the 2010 season with according to our Player Rater tool. If a player has “miss” after his name, he failed to finish in the top-50.

1- Albert Pujols (2nd)
In 10 years he has never, not once, failed to go at least .312-32-103-99. This year he was far better at .312-42-118-118-14.

2- Hanley Ramirez (11th)
He was a bit disappointing with just 21 homers an a mere .300 average, but he still went 20/30 while scoring more than 90 runs.

3- Alex Rodriguez (48th)
Potentially never has such a powerful season – 30 homers and 125 RBI – seemed so disappointing. A-Rod hit only .270, scored just 74 runs and stole a piddly four bags.

4- Ryan Braun (12th )
He failed to hit 30-homers for the first time with 25, but he still hit .304 with 103 RBI, 101 runs and 14 steals. He has been dynamic in his four year career.

5- Chase Utley – MISS
Injury limited him to 115 games, and the results was his first season with less than 22 homers, 93 RBI and 93 runs scored in six seasons (.275-16-65-75-13).

6- Mark Teixeira – MISS
He hit a terrible .136 in April and never really got on track finishing at .256 (career .286). He still was able to put up another 30-100 season though (33-108) while scoring 113 runs.

7- Miguel Cabrera (5th)
If not for Mr. Pujols, Mr. Cabrera would be seen by more fans for what he is – a player on his way to the Hall of Fame. Cabrera was second in the AL with a .328 average, third in homers with 38, and first in RBI with 126. Plus, he was my choice for the AL MVP (give Who is the AL MVP a read).

8- Matt Kemp – MISS
I predicted he would fall in 2009. I was just a year early. Kemp hit a poor .249, whiffed 170 times and was caught stealing 15 times as he had more than one run in with the coaching staff in L.A. He did have value though with 28 homers, 89 RBI and 82 runs scored.

9- Ryan Howard – (49th)
He hit 31 bombs with 108 RBI, but it was the first time in five years that he failed to go deep 45 times with 136 RBI.

10- Jacoby Ellsbury – MISS
The biggest bust of 2010 as he appeared in just 18 games.

11- Carl Crawford (3rd)
About to be a very rich man in free agency as he yet again was an all-around beast (.307-19-90-110-47).

12- Adrian Gonzalez (34th)
He plays in a terrible park for hitters, and did hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI and 87 runs, but most were expecting more after he averaged 35 homers, 106 RBI and 98 runs the previous three seasons.

13- Prince Fielder – MISS
If I said Fielder hit 32 homers and scored 94 runs, you’d be nonplussed but pleased. However he slumped to .261 and drove in just 83 runs a year after platting a career best 141 runs so it was clearly a disappointing effort.

14- Ian Kinsler – MISS
I had the pick here, and I felt good about taking Mr. 30/30 with my first selection. Alas, his season was one of injury including that stubborn ankle issue that really held him down early in the year. A season of .286-9-45-73-15 is solid for a second sacker — if he was your 14th round pick, not the 14th player taken overall.

15- Evan Longoria (22nd)
Almost matched his draft day cost as he pushed his average up to .294 with 46 doubles, five triples and five steals (all career bests). He did produce a 3-year low in homers (22) while losing nine RBI (104) and four runs (96) from his ’09 effort.

Of these 15 guys, do you know how many returned first round value according to our Player Rater? The answer is a mere five: Braun, Cabrera, Crawford, Pujols and Ramirez.

All of this just goes to show you that the old adage that drafts are won or lost in the first round may not be true because I bet a whole bunch of people won leagues taking one of the 10 guys mentioned here who didn’t finish in the top-50 this season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 17, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury yet another fractured rib.

(2) Second basemen return – Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Martin Prado.

(3) Is Justin Morneau done for the year?

(4) Mets place Francisco Rodriguez placed on disqualified list.

(5) Matt Lindstrom out, Brandon Lyon in as closer.

(6) Bryce Harper signs with Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 2, 2010

(1) Martin Prado to DL with pinkie injury.

(2) Andrew Bailey hopes to return to action this weekend.

(3) Jorge Cantu will share time at 1B with Mitch Moreland.

(4) James McDonald to start for Pirates in place of Daniel McCutchen.

(5) Joe Mauer continues to miss time with sore shoulder.

(6) Corey Hart signs 3-year, $26.5 million deal.

(7) Jacoby Ellsbury still working at Triple-A.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 22, 2010

(1) Angels deal for Alberto Callaspo, give up Sean O’Sullivan and William Smith. Rick Ankiel activated.

(2) Jamie Moyer has sprained UCL (grade 2), might need TJ Surgery.

(3) Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly on the block.

(4) Edison Volquez lit up by Nationals.

(5) Josh Johnson, 13-straight starts two or fewer earned runs.

(6) Bobby Jenks removed from closers role.

(7) Brian Roberts could return as early as Friday.

(8) Jacoby Ellsbury takes BP.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 12, 2010

(1) The Fanball Fantasy Drive – XM 147, Sirius 211. For more on the show make sure you give I’m a Star a read.

(2) The Home Run Derby – my thoughts.

(3) The All-Star Game.

(4) Jose Reyes potentially to DL with oblique injury.

(5) No timetable on a return for Victor Martinez (thumb).

(6) Red Sox trying to make nice with Jacoby Ellsbury.

(7) Brian Roberts headed out on minor league rehab assignment.

(8) Blue Jays might be offering their entire bullpen in trade.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 10, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury to rest for 2 weeks with new fracture.

(2) Nelson Cruz (hamstring) runs bases, hoping to return next Tuesday.

(3) Erik Bedard progressing to late June return?

(4) Ryan Sweeney hitting .322 over the last calendar year. You can read more about this situation at By The Numbers.

(5) Derek Holland (shoulder) to try throwing on Friday.

(6) Omar Vizquel to miss weekend series. He’s been ripping it up at dish.

(7) Todd Wellemeyer to DL but no Madison Bumgarner. Why?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 8 , 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg makes his big league debut on Tuesday. You can read more of my thoughts about that in What can we expect from Stephen Strasburg who makes his debut on Tuesday?

(2) Mike Stanton makes his big league debut on Tuesday.

(3) Orlando Hudson to DL. J.J. Hardy has cortisone shot in wrist.

(4) Jeff Clement like to be sent down next week in favor of Steve Pearce.

(5) Brian Roberts and Mike Gonzalez hit roadblocks.

(6) Jacoby Ellsbury getting a second opinion on broken ribs.

By Ray Flowers

The Weekend is Here

I’ve got a date on Saturday with a pretty lady friend. She is coming over for dinner, so if you have any suggestions on what I should make to impress her – I’ve already thought of SPAM and a vat of wine so you don’t have to suggest those – let me know in the Comments section below.

Wait a second, this is a baseball website, right? Sorry about that.

* Mike Aviles is hitting .341 in 70 at-bats. Yeah, good job Royals for sending him down to the minors so you could give at bats to Chris Getz (.188) and Yuniesky Betancourt (.280, .301 OBP).

* Ryan Dempster will defer money so that the Cubs can try to improve their team. (1) Dempster is set to make $12.5 million this season. He will defer $3 million of that at “little or no interest” according to Ken Rosenthal. (2) Good for him. I mean when you’re making millions of duckets a year, why not defer a few bucks if it helps the team? If you can’t live off $9.5 million a year you are seriously in need of an adjustment – even if you are 50 Cent. If you didn’t notice that the picture above was 50 Cent by the way, you lose your street cred completely.

* Jacoby Ellsbury is back on the DL with continued pain in his side and there seems to be some growing animosity between the two sides. Ellsbury feels that the team completely misdiagnosed his injury which has led to all the problems and whispers that he wasn’t tough enough to play through pain. All I know is that he is killing fantasy owners with a mere nine games played this season. And don’t think we “experts” don’t know how you feel. On one of my teams this year I had Ellsbury, Joe Nathan who didn’t throw one pitch, Lance Berkman who missed weeks with his knee injury, Josh Beckett who has been awful and is now out with a back condition and Brian Roberts who has all of 14 at-bats this season. Yeah, it doesn’t get much worse than that does it?

* Adam Jones had an interesting experience when he was detained for hours when the Orioles went to Canada to face the Blue Jays. Apparently they thought he was a hoodlum. Perhaps they thought he was NFL player Pacman Jones? Newsflash – the easy way to tell if it was Pacman would be to have a hot stewardess walk by and see if he started “making it rain.”

* From the oddity file. Jay Bruce has a .247 career batting average with a homer every 19.2 ABs. The past three weeks he is hitting .328 with one homer in 67 at-bats. Go figure.

* Will Ohman has three saves in a career that spans 7+ big league seasons. He is now the primary closer in Baltimore.

* Grady Sizemore is still seeing specialist about his knee injury. The more doctors he visits the more likely it is that he is hearing information that he doesn’t really like, or worse yet, there is a disagreement amongst doctors as to what the best course of action would be. We should hear over the weekend what the plan is, but I’m starting to give some serious thought to the position that Sizemore may have played his last game in 2010. Who would have thought back in March that Carlos Beltran and Sizemore, combined, wouldn’t suit up for 162 games in 2010? Sure looks like it might happen at this point.

* My Jed Wars team is about ready to get medieval on some fools. I’ve got Derek Holland who was recently recalled, Chris Tillman who is on the verge of his first appearance with the Orioles and Daniel Hudson who should replace a useless Freddy Garcia at some point in the near future in Chicago. If two of those three hit – in addition to Wade Davis who is also on my squad – I’m gonna have a killer AL-only staff. Can you imagine if this was a keeper league?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May27, 2010

(1) No new injury with Jacoby Ellsbury. A DL trip is still possible though. Victor Martinez also out with his toe issue.

(2) Carlos Zambrano has appendicitis? A report says he was taken to the hospital.

(3) Carlos Marmol on amazing K pace – a historic one.

(4) John Ely is the real deal for the Dodgers.

(5) Matt Lindstrom blows 1st save chance in 23 tries.

(6) B.J. Upton struggling terribly in May.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May26, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury might be headed back to the DL.

(2) Bobby Jenks continues to struggle in 9th. Is it time for Matt Thornton?

(3) Brian Roberts to report to work on Friday.

(4) Carlos Ruiz dealing with some shoulder pain.

(5) J.A. Happ still a ways away from return.

(6) Max Scherzer finding his groove in minors.

By Ray Flowers