Around the Horn: April12, 2010

What is the deal with the massive amount of injuries to all-star caliber players in the opening month of the season? Here is a list of the players I’ll touch on today.

C: Miguel Montero

1B: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee

2B: Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones

SS: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Gonzalez

SP: Cliff Lee, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young

RP: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge

Also —

(1) Jack Cust accepts minor league deal. Does he have any value?

(2) Nelson Cruz bashing. Already has five homers leading to 38 HR, 85 RBI and 20 SB in his last 134 games.

(3) And Prince Fielder who wants at least $180 million, maybe more than $200, to sign long-term.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

2009 NL All-Star Team

Who were the best fantasy options in the National League in 2009? There are names that certainly jump to mind, guys like Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez, but there were also a couple of tricky calls as I filled out my ballot for the best that the Senior Circuit had to offer in 2009.

If you want to catch my thoughts on who I filled out my American League team with, click on the link to 2009 AL All-Star Team.

CATCHER:Brian McCann

Whether or not he could see at what he was swinging at (he will undergo another LASIK procedure for his eyes this offseason), McCann made enough loud contact to lead NL catchers in homers (21) and RBI (94) while hitting .281, He also managed to lead all catchers with a .834 OPS. This was the fourth straight year that he has knocked in at least 87 runs.

FIRST BASE:Albert Pujols

It’s not a tough call at all when you are talking about the best right-handed hitter of our generation, and flat out the most dominating offensive weapon at the dish in baseball in 2009 regardless of position. Pujols hit 47 homers, knocked in 135 runs, scored 124 times and even swiped 16 bases. He also finished third in the NL in average (.327), first in OBP (.443) and first in SLG (.658). That pretty much says it all.

SECOND BASE:Chase Utley

Though his average slumped to .282, Utley was one of just two second sackers in the NL who went 20/20 (the other was Brandon Phillips) as he socked 31 dingers while swiping a career best 23 bags. Utley also crossed home plate 112 times while knocking in 93 on his way to while posting a .905 OPS. That’s a hell of a season no matter where you play defense.

THIRD BASE:Mark Reynolds

I was this close to going with Pablo Sandoval. After all, the Kung Fu Panda bettered Reynolds in AVG (.330 to .260), OBP (.387 to .349), SLG (.556 to .543) and OPS (.934 to .892). Still, Reynolds went 40/20 while scoring 98 runs and knocking in 102, so he won out in the end.

SHORTSTOP:Hanley Ramirez

There is no debate here whatsoever. Hanley hit a league leading .342, socked 24 big flies, knocked in 106 runs, scored 101 of his own and swiped 27 bags as he posted a .954 OPS. No one, other than Troy Tulowitzki (.297-32-92-101-20), was even considered.

OUTFIELD:Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth

Braun hit .320 and led all NL outfielders with 114 RBI and 113 runs. Kemp went 20/20 while hitting .297 with 101 RBI and 97 runs. Werth also went 20/20 as he hit .268 with 36 homers with 99 RBI and 98 runs. Michael Bourne, an extremely unlikely name, almost made the cut with his 61 steals, a .285 average and 97 runs scored.

STARTING PITCHER:Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter

That’s the order these top-3 should be ranked in as well, a fact I discussed previously in The NL Cy Young Race .

RELIEF PITCHER:Jonathan Broxton

Really, is there any doubt here? Sure Heath Bell (42), Francisco Cordero (39), Ryan Franklin (38), Brian Wilson (38) and Trevor Hoffman (37) each had more than Broxton’s 36 saves, but Broxton led the group with seven victories while his 0.96 WHIP was third. However, it’s the 114 Ks that set him apart – no on else in the aforementioned group recorded even 85 punchouts.

By Ray Flowers

2009 AL All-Star Team

With the baseball regular season wrapped up, I thought I would spend a few minutes detailing for you the 2009 Fantasy All-Star Team for the American League. It’s certainly not an easy call naming just a handful of guys, I’m sure some of you will disagree with some of my choices, but here is my best effort to give you the names of the best guys the Junior Circuit had to offer.

CATCHER: Joe Mauer

Duh. When you lead the league in average (.365), OBP (.444) and SLG (.587) there is nothing this guy didn’t do in 2009.

FIRST BASE: Mark Teixeira

This was a really close race between Tex and Miguel Cabrera, but the Yankees’ slugger pulled just slightly ahead.

Teixeira: .292/.383/.565 with 39 homers, 122 RBI and 103 runs
Cabrera: .324/.396/.547 with 34 homers, 103 RBI and 96 runs

SECOND BASE:Ben Zobrist

While it pains me to pass on Robinson Cano (.320-25-85-103-5) and Aaron Hill (.289-36-108-103-6), I’m going to go with Zobrist who played 91 games at second base. Zobrist hit a strong .297, flashed a lot of power (27 homers, 91 RBI) and stole more bases than the other two combined (17).

THIRD BASE:Evan Longoria

He led the position with 33 homers and 113 RBI while coming in second in runs (100). Despite all that he hit 20 homers with only 58 RBI over his last 106 games. Chone Figgins was a hell of a backup option (.298-5-54-114-42).

SHORTSTOP:Derek Jeter

The Yankees’ captain led his position in average (.334) and runs (107) while at the same time hitting 18 homers with 66 RBI and 30 steals making this a rather easy call. Jason Bartlett might have caught him if he had stayed healthy for more than 137 games (.320-14-66-90-30).

OUTFIELD:Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Bobby Abreu

Ellsbury led baseball with 70 steals. Crawford managed to swipe 60 bags while hitting 15 homers and, knocking in 96 runs – all the while hitting .305. Abreu batted .293 with 103 RBI, 96 runs and 30 steals of his own. Tough to leave off Jason Bay (.267-36-119-103-13) and Adam Lind (.305-35-114-93-1), but their all-around games left them just on the outside.

STARTING PITCHER:Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez

I already broke down this battle in a previous piece titled The AL Cy Young Race .

RELIEF PITCHER:Joe Nathan

I’m skipping over the league leader in saves (Brian Fuentes had 48) as well as the man who is widely regarded as the best closer of all-time (Mariano Rivera) to go with the Twins’ hurler. Why? Nathan had 47 saves, a 2.10 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 89 Ks on the year while limiting batters to a .171 BAA, that’s why.

By Ray Flowes

The Ideal First Round

We are still months away from the 2010 major league season, shoot, we aren’t even to the World Series yet, but that doesn’t mean that I’m not knee deep in baseball data right now as we are beginning to put together out first 2010 Baseball Magazine (it should be out in time to stuff your holiday stocking). Given that, combined with our recent purchase of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship which uses 15 team leagues, I thought I would run through my ideal first round for 2010. It won’t be the last time I do this leading up to the actual draft weekend, but sitting here today this is how I see things playing out.

1- Hanley Ramirez
How is this for a three year average from a shortstop: .325-29-85-117-38. His steal total is dipping (51, 35 and 27), but the average has been over .330 two of the past three years and he knocked in 106 runs batting third this season.

2- Albert Pujols
I know, I know. How could he not be #1? At this point I’m putting him #2 because of his most recent elbow operation and the slight concern I have about that. You can read my thoughts on the matter at Is Perception Reality?

3- Alex Rodriguez
Showing, once again, what he can do when the stars align. If we add in the eight playoff games he has played this year he has produced a .293-35-111-88-15 line in just 132 games this season.

4- Ryan Braun
Strikes out too much without drawing walks (his 0.35 BB/K mark for his career is well below the 0.50 major league average), but he has managed to hit .308 in his three seasons. Doesn’t have the speed of Kemp (though he had 20 steals in ’09), but of the two this is the guy would could hit 40 homers with 120 RBI and a .330 batting average.

5- Matt Kemp
I don’t like the large K totals (153 and 139 the past two years), but how can I argue with a guy who in his second full season hit .297-26-101-97-34? 30/30 is the next step.

6- Miguel Cabrera
The best right handed power hitter in the AL who hasn’t been linked to performance enhancing drugs, Cabrera has hit at least .320 in four of five seasons while also knocked in at least 112 runs five times in six years.

7- Chase Utley
Shrugged off the hip surgery to produce spectacularly. He went 20/20 for the first time (31 homers, 23 steals), scored 100-runs for the fourth straight year and has now gone at least .280-22-93-93 in each of the past five seasons.

8- Ian Kinsler
How many players went 30/30 this past season? One, and he plays second base for the Rangers (he had 31 homers and 31 steals). Even though he hit only .253 he still scored 101 runs with 86 RBI.

9- Tim Lincecum
The best pitcher in the game. Period.

10- Ryan Howard
Wildly deficient in steals (10 career) and average (only once over .280 the past four years), but with 4-straight 45 homer, 135 RBI seasons who cares?

11- Jacoby Ellsbury
Major league steals leader (70) doesn’t have the power of Crawford, but he has more steal upside, has scored at least 94 runs each of the past two years, and upped his average .021 points in just his second full season (.301).

12- Carl Crawford
Even with a late season fade he still set a career best with 60 steals, his fifth 50+ steal season in seven years, while scoring 96 runs, hitting 15 bombs, and batting .305.

13- Mark Teixeira
I don’t think he takes the next step to outright greatness, but in that park, and with that lineup around him, he is as close as a guy can be to a completely lock to hit 30 homers with 100 RBI and a batting average of .280+ (6-straight years).

14- Roy Halladay
Yes Zack Greinke was better last season, but at the same time Halladay has been the most consistently excellent pitcher in the game the past four years. There is also the growing specter of Halladay being dealt, and that would likely help him in the “W” category much more than Greinke will be aided pitching for the Royals.

15- Mark Reynolds
Reynolds was the only man who hit 40 homers while knocking in 100 runs and stealing 20 bases. Reynolds set a major league record with 223 Ks, so I still worry about his ability to match his .260 mark from last season, and honestly, I would never take him this high, though some might even put him higher on the list so I added him, grudgingly, to the list.

By Ray Flowers

Friday's Fantasy Notes

As we head into what will be a glorious weekend of sports that includes NBA and NHL playoffs and game after game of MLB action, here are a few of the stories that really piqued my interest as I prepare myself to hit the shower and shave the old beard in my attempt, however feeble, to impress the ladies with my presence this weekend.

Rich Harden lasted just 3.2 innings on Friday against the Marlins as he was pounded for six hits, four walks and five runs as he left with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through his five starts. Amazingly, he has 37 K in his 24.2 IP, good for a stupendous 13.50 K/9 mark despite all the struggles with the strike zone. He is a real mixed bag right now. He has lasted six innings in three of his starts but has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in the other two.

One is going up, the other going down. Hanley Ramirez finally returned to the action on Friday, his first appearance since injuring his hand on Monday when he was hit by a pitch. He struck out in his lone at-bat. Down south in Texas, Josh Hamilton and his sore rib cage has finally resulted in the team placing him on the DL (retroactive to April 27th meaning he will be eligible to return on May 12th). As a result, Andruw Jones just may be looking at an increase in playing time, and as crazy as it sounds, he might actually deserve it. Through 32 at-bats this season he is batting a fantastic .344 with a 1.304 OPS thanks to a total of three home runs and five doubles. He has also scored 12 runs in only 11 games, and just maybe he has turned the corner after looking about as useful as pocket lint last season.

When was the last time you caught Bull Durham starring Kevin Costner, Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon? Do yourself a favor if its been a while, see it again. When the talk about classic sports movies, there may be no finer example on celluloid about baseball.

Ryan Theriot hit one home run last season in 580-AB. On Friday he went deep for the first time this season, in just his 22nd game, as he socked a grand slam. At the other end of the spectrum we have Carl Crawford who has the most at-bats this season without going deep (92). Only slightly better than him is Alex Rios who has gone deep just once in 101 ABs and Jacoby Ellsbury who has one tater in 94 ABs. As for Rios, what the hell has happened to his power at the dish? After going deep 24 times in 2007 Rios regressed to just 15 long balls last season and now sits with a grand total of 16 home runs in his last 736 at-bats. I don’t want to write the guy off, especially since I drafted him in multiple leagues this season, but that lack of pop is distressing, especially considering that he has swiped a mere two bags in 24 games this season.

The matchup everyone was hoping to see this NHL post season will happen as the Washington Capitals will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 2. Three of the most luminous stars in the game will face off in Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While Crosby has been great in his young career, his star is in danger of being eclipsed due to the play of Ovechkin and Malkin, two of the three finalists for the Hart Trophy this season (the NHL MVP). It will be one hell of a series with other stars like Mike Green and Alexander Semin also involved, so if you are one of those people who still are unsure about the game of hockey, this could certainly be the series that pushes you to the opinion of this writer – it is a great game, perhaps the best that can be viewed in person with it’s combination of skill, speed and physicality.