Contracts & Free Agents

Breaking up the monotony of my daily fantasy baseball Player Profiles, I thought it would be a good thing to take a look around the league at some of the players who have signed deals or who are looking for a new home for the 2013 baseball season.

Jonathan Broxton received a 3-year deal, with a club option ($9 million), for $21 million to stay with the Reds. This means two things. Aroldis Chapman is headed to the starting rotation. It’s a risk after his magnificent season – 38 saves, 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 15.32 K/9 – but I think it’s a risk worth taking. In my opinion, and we see this every year, you don’t have to be an elite talent to have success in the 9th inning. Plus, Aroldis has to be more valuable pitching seven innings 30 times than just 71.2 innings out of the bullpen like he did last year, right (note: Reds’ pitching coach Bryan Price said Chapman will be on an IP count in ’13 but would not mention what the number is)? That is if the team has a viable 9th inning option to turn to. Broxton may not be that guy. I’m a big fan of the 2.22 GB/FB ratio he posted last season, and that 2.48 ERA is also a solid mark, but I’m still greatly concerned. Broxton’s heater is down three mph from his heyday, and his K/9 mark of 6.98 last season was four full batters below his career average. Four. He also walked fewer batters than even before (his BB/9 was down a full batter), and there is little reason to think he will be able to keep the number that low again. I see trouble ahead with Broxton working the 9th.

Zack Greinke is gonna get paid. Oh is he. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests that a source told him there might even be chance that Greinke will be able to better the record $161 million deal given to CC Sabathia. Even if he doesn’t get there, a deal of six years and $150 million seems immanently possible.

Jair Jurrjens is not likely to be back with the Braves. Who can blame them. He posted a 6.89 ERA and 1.86 WHIP last season in 11 outings while spending a large portion of the year in Triple-A where he didn’t exactly stand out (4-6, 4.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.85 K/9). He’s nothing more than a 5th starter in the big leagues despite the success that he has found in the past.

Francisco Liriano is now talking with the Twins who literally have one pitcher in their starting rotation – Scott Diamond. Apparently they haven’t gotten enough of a guy who has gone 15-22 with an ERA over 5.00 the past two years.

Wilton Lopez has been dealt to the Phillies (the deal isn’t official yet). Jonathan Papelbon is obviously locked into the 9th inning for the Phils, but Lopez will be an able bodied setup man. Coming off his best season (career bests in ERA 2.17, K/9 7.33 and GB/FB 2.60), Lopez should be an excellent setup man as well as a positive own in NL-only leagues.

Russell Martin is looking for a 4-year deal for $36-40 million. I think he’s been huffing paint. Still, it seems like he’ll get at least three years and $25 million from someone (John Heyman reports that the Pirates are likely to go that high). Martin last hit .250 in 2009, hasn’t stolen double-digit bags since 2009 and has watched his OBP go down 4-straight years to last seasons career worst .311. That’s a lot of junk to pay $8 mil a year for just to get 20 homers (13 of his 21 homers were at home last year where the ball flies out of the yard with frequency).

Andy Pettitte will pitch for the Yankees in 2013 after agreeing to a one year, $12 million deal. Pettitte is coming off a fantastic 12 start season that saw him post the second best ERA (2.87) and WHIP (1.14) of his career. Given that his career marks are 3.86 and 1.35, and that he is 40 years old, you’d be foolish to expect him to be as effective next season as he was last season.

Mark Reynolds seems unlikely to remain in Baltimore. Someone will pay the slugger even though he’s coming off a down season of .221 with 23 homers and 69 RBIs. Don’t forget that the previous three seasons (2009-11) that this guy averaged 38 homers, 91 RBIs and 87 runs scored a season.

Finally… Carlos Ruiz is a moron. Ruiz was suspended for 25 games for using Adderall (a medication for ADHD that is often used illegally by players to help sharpen their focus). Ruiz is an idiot for cheating, but there is also another layer of idiocy here. The first positive test for amphetamines results in further testing but NO suspension. That means that Ruiz failed the test – twice. I’m just gonna say it flat out – there is no doubt that Ruiz is a cheater.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

How is This Happening?

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’ve only said it about 1,629 times, and I’ve continued to write about it recently in Bonds, Ruth and Bautista? Sometimes, things occur that defy explanation. I could sit here and spend the next 13 weeks writing a massive compendium of a work detailing how this doesn’t make sense, or how that can’t possibly continue. More times than not I’m going to be right, but of course no one is 100 percent correct, not me, not historical track records, or even the numbers themselves (hello Jose Bautista).

Still, I remain undaunted.

I’m going to hit on a handful of hurlers that I think are pretty much sure bets to regress as the season moves forward. Before I list the actual hurlers I’d suggest you familiarize yourself with my thought process as to why the soon to be mentioned hurlers will be unable to remain on their current paths to greatness.

The easiest way to understand where I’m coming from is to give Which Pitchers Should I Target? a read. In that piece I lay out the basics which, simply put, say to target pitchers with a K/9 rate of 6.50 and a BB/9 mark of 3.30 or lower. Of course pitchers can have success not hitting both of those levels (let me be clear there are always pitchers who succeed without hitting both those targets), especially those that are ground ball hurlers, but it’s a nice general rule to go by when assembling a fantasy rotation. In addition, keep in mind that starting pitchers only contribute in four of the five traditional categories, so even if the guy has a “good” season, if he only strikes out 120 batters he really doesn’t help your squad that much.

With that, here are a handful of pitchers who it would be wise to deal now if you are in a mixed league before their seasons go from great to merely average (some of the names listed should be obvious, but based on the questions I get every day, it doesn’t seem like everyone is in agreement).

Note: xFIP is a measure that normalizes home run rates and tells you what a pitchers actual ERA should be based upon the factors that are in his control.

Nick Blackburn: 3.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.87 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 3.85 xFIP
Blackburn normally throws strikes, but he simply doesn’t miss any bats. He has offset that issue by inducing a career best 53 percent of batted balls toward the infield grass (career 47 percent). However, he’s giving up more liners than he has the last three years and his walk rate is also a career worst. Get out quick.

Zack Britton: 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.85 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 3.80 xFIP
Doing an even better job than Blackburn inducing grounders (56 percent), this rookie has been terrific. Still, there’s little other than his impressive ground ball rate to really like here. Given that fact, and that even in a best case scenario that the team could limit his innings late in the year, it would be wise to see if someone would give you starter #2 value for a guy who really is a #4 at best.

Jair Jurrjens: 1.56 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.15 K/9, 1.40 BB/9, 2.73 xFIP
You know he isn’t Greg Maddux so a regression is coming. The question is – how much? Here is what I see. He’s got the worst K-rate of his career, more than a full batter below his career mark. His walk rate is fantastic, but this is a guy who has for each of the past four years posted a mark of at least 3.14. Is he really going to cut that in half? His HR/9 rate is half of normal. His left on base percentage is 86 percent. For his career it’s 74.4. He does have a strong 1.59 GB/FB ratio, but that doesn’t make up for everything else.

Kyle Lohse: 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.96 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 3.61 xFIP
Unlike others on this list, Lohse has an extensive history of a decade of major league work. Beyond the obvious, things like never posting an ERA under 3.78 or a WHIP better than 1.27 in any season, are the following points. His K-rate is the 2nd worst of his 11 year career. He’s BB-rate is a full batter below his career mark. His HR/9 mark is literally a third of normal (0.36 compared to 1.11). His BABIP is .080 points below his career rate. His 80 percent LOB mark is 10 percentage points clear of his career rate. Oh, and his GB/FB ratio of 1.29 is only slightly better than his career 1.13 rate. You’re playing with fire if you continue to handle Lohse.

Charlie Morton: 2.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 4.21 BB/9, 3.89 xFIP
He looks like Roy Halladay with his revamped delivery and he has generated a rather amazing 62.5 percent ground ball rate leading to a stupendous 3.43 GB/FB ratio. I don’t think he can keep up that rate, but even if it falls to 2.43 he should be able to have real world success. Still, he’s just not a solid fantasy option in mixed leagues. He never strikes anyone out, walks more batters than the big league average, and though his line drive rate is the same as always, his BABIP is .262, a mere .047 points lower than normal. Oh, and don’t get me started on his 80 percent LOB mark which is only 15 percentage points better than his career rate.

Josh Tomlin: 2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.53 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 4.25 xFIP
Unlike others on this list who have had a lot of success because they have kept the ball on the ground, Tomlin has been nothing other than average in that category. In fact, he’s been worse than big league average with a 37 percent ground ball rate leading to a a terrible 0.89 GB/FB mark (the league average is usually about 1.10). So how has he had success? Sheer luck. He rarely misses a bat, and when the ball does hit the wood, he’s been about the luckiest cat on the planet. Though his line drive rate is nearly 22 percent, his BABIP is .175. You remember that the big league averages are 19-20 and .300 right? That means Tomlin is giving up more line drives than average but that he is somehow holding batters to a hit rate that is only 2/3 of normal. There is on way that trend will remain intact the rest of the season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 30, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes injured in batting practice. Should be OK.

(2) Nate McLouth still having concussion related symptoms.

(3) Erik Bedard nearing a return to big leagues.

(4) Bengie Molina to be moved to the Rangers?

(5) Clayton Richard has 10 Ks vs. the Rockies.

(6) Mike Gonzalez might be out until All-Star break.

(7) B.J. Upton out with quad injury.

(8) Jair Jurrjens returns for the Braves.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 25, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano goes bonkers in dugout is suspended.

(2) Jair Jurrjens likely to return to the rotation next Wednesday.

(3) Carlos Beltran back by Monday?

(4) Carl Crawford’s shoulder still bothering him.

(5) Aramis Ramirez back from thumb injury.

(6) Jake Peavy coming on strong.

(7) A big announcement coming on Monday.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May10, 2010

(1) Jair Jurrjens felt a pop in hamstring during rehab. Will be sent for an MRI.

(2) Jason Heyward to return on Tuesday from his groin injury.

(3) Huston Street off on minor league rehab stint – should be back in two weeks with the Rockies.

(4) Troy Tulowitzki will avoid DL but he will also likely miss a few days with his quadriceps injury.

(5) Oliver Perez will remain a starter for Mets despite 25 walks in 30 innings.

(6) Josh Beckett will have start pushed back to Friday with Tim Wakefield making a start.

(7) Dallas Braden perfect game anecdotes.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May6, 2010

(1) The Reds will not demote Drew Stubbs. You can also read My Tooth Hurts.

(2) Who is gonna lead off for the Marlins – Cameron Maybin, Chris Coghlan or Emilio Bonifacio?

(3) Jair Jurrjens to DL – replaced by Kris Medlen.

(4) Juan Uribe or Freddy Sanchez for Giants?

(5) Is Matt Garza a top-10 SP? You can also read Impact Report – Matt Garza.

(6) Lance Berkman will waive no-trade clause.

(7) Carlos Lee finally goes deep.

(8) What are the Orioles going to do in the 9th inning?

By Ray Flowers

What to Make of Jair Jurrjens?

I got into a debate with one of the guys who follows me on Twitter today, it actually turned into a multitude of voices offering their thoughts, about the validity of calling Jair Jurrjens an “ace.” Obviously Twitter is a poor place to debate that, no one can make a valid argument when you are looking at a limit of 140 characters, but it got me to thinking about the question which prompted this piece.

Jair Jurrjens was a wonderful fantasy piece last year as he posted a 2.60 ERA, the third best mark in the NL, on his way to 14 victories in 215 innings for the Braves. If your definition of an “ace” is an innings eater who wins game, I can accept the position that he was an ace last year. However, if you are claiming he is an ace because of his skill set or because of his future outlook, I’m afraid the outlook is much bleaker.

Even with his success last year there are plenty of reasons to be dubious about the potential for a repeat this season (and I’m not even referring to the health questions about his shoulder which introduce the proverbial wrench to the proceedings).

(1) Jurrjens struck out 6.36 batters per nine innings. The major league average last season was 6.99. Clearly, his rate was unimpressive.

(2) Jurrjens did produce a slightly better than average walk rate last season at 3.14 per nine, the average in the bigs was 3.46, but because of the poor strikeout total his K/BB mark of 2.03 was only one hundredth better than the league average of 2.02.

(3) Ground ball pitchers like Jurrjens can still be mighty effective at the above levels, but the problem is he lost a lot of those grounders last year as batters turned them into flyballs. After a 51.5 percent GB-rate in 2008, that number dropped all the way to 42.9 percent last season. As a result his terrific 1.94 G/F rate of ’08 fell to almost exactly the league average at 1.10 which puts his future performance in question.

A low strikeout mark, a middling K/BB rate, and a barely average G/F certainly doesn’t scream out third in the league in ERA now does it?

Furthermore, here are another couple of notes of worry.

(4) Jurrjens posted a left on base percentage mark of 79.4 percent. The big league average is usually right around 70 percent, and that 79.4 percent mark last year with fifth in baseball. Logic would dictate a regression in 2010, probably much closer to his 71 percent mark from 2008 than last year’s near 80 percent rate. For some context, only eight guys posted a mark of 79 percent last year, only four did it in 2008 and no one pulled off the feat in 2007 (min. 162 IP).

(5) Jurrjens didn’t record nearly as strong a number in a myriad of ERA related measures that he did with his raw ERA. Just take a look.

His ERC ERA was 3.04.
His FIP ERA was 3.68 (actually higher than his 3.59 mark in 2008 that led to a raw ERA of 3.68).
His DIPS ERA was 3.82.

What those three measures clearly point out is that Jurrjens was pretty lucky to post a sub 3.00 ERA last season.

Is Jurrjens an “ace”? I don’t think he will ever be an ace in the bigs or in the fantasy game. He simply doesn’t dominate hitters, and the failure for him to produce positive growth in a myriad of measure last year despite his ERA certainly throws into question whether or not he will ever be able to take the next step. Don’t get me wrong, Jurrjens is a fine pitcher, one that the Braves, and his fantasy owners, certainly will be happy with – that is if they expect his ERA to be 3.60 and not 2.60. Don’t be surprised if Jurrjens fails to repeat his ratios from last season even if he pitches a lot of innings and wins a lot of games for the Braves in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 3, 2010

(1) Phil Hughes in battle with Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves for Yanks 5^th starters spot.

(2) Jason Heyward greatest player of all-time. Just ask around

(3) Tim Hudson and Jeremy Bonderman throw two shutout innings apiece.

(4) Brad Lidge continues to show improvement with knee/elbow.

(6) Jair Jurrjens shoulder showing improvement.

(7) Lance Berkman’s knee not that bad. Should be fine.

(8) Aaron Harang named Reds’ Opening Day starter.

By Ray Flowers