Daily Joust – Wk 11: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late.
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Jake Arrieta (+43, $212,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
Arrieta dominated the Pirates in his last outing (1 ER in 7 IP) reminding everyone just how good he can be. Of course, the previous start his evil twin came out as he allowed 11 hits and nine runs in just four innings against the Phillies. He pitches in the toughest division in baseball (AL East), and consistency has always eluded him, but this is a young fella that does own a big arm (8.33 K/9, 3.13 K/BB this season).

Craig Gentry (+14, $91K)
Josh Hamilton is dealing with a nasty flu bug, and Nelson Cruz is seemingly always hurt somewhere, so Gentry has been generating a lot of excitement offensively this season in limited playing time. Craig has hit an uber impressive .349 while stealing nine bags in just 109 at-bats, and he has been raking it the past two weeks hitting .484 over his last 31 at-bats. Leonys Martin was called up which could eat into the playing time of Gentry, but he still makes a fine AL-only target.

Mike Minor (+30, $238K)
He’s finally found his game. In his last two starts Minor has allowed a total of two runs to drop his ERA by nearly a run to 6.01. Still, he walked six batters in those two outings signaling that everything isn’t totally “fixed” with his game. His skills far outpace that ERA and his WHIP (1.42) so buying low here certainly makes sense as the Braves have decided to return Kris Medlen to the pen to allow Minor and Randall Delgado to continue to start.

Alexei Ramirez (+17, $77K)
You’re killing me smalls. After improving to .245 with 18 RBI in May, June has been more of the same blah for Alexei as he has hit .212 with a .462 OPS in 52 at-bats. The only thing keeping him in the lineup at this point is his history of success cause he certainly hasn’t merited full time at-bats given his sickly .527 OPS through 64 games.

Jonathan Sanchez ($37, $207K)
A 2-start pitcher this week (HOU, STL) the enigma that is Sanchez continues to vex. In his return from injury he held the Brewers to one run in five innings and walking two batters has to been as an improvement for a guy who has issued 24 free passes in 30.1 innings. He’s not to the point where you can trust him – obviously – but if he goes out and looks solid this week it would be a great time to pounce.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Jose Altuve (-11, $91K)
After hitting .283 in May he’s upped that mark back to .317 in June, which just so happens to match his year mark. His speed is allowing him to leg out a few more hits than I expected, but it’s a long season. Given that he’s no power hitter, and that he doesn’t really draw walks either, he’s going to have to keep that average up or he’ll also see his steal total fall do to a lack of times on base to attempt a theft (his OBP is just .359 despite that .317 batting average).

Jose Bautista (-16, $118K)
Flashing the power bat that has produced 40 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs the past two years, Bautista is on pace to reach all of those marks yet again in 2012 (19 homers, 47 RBI, 42 runs scored in 66 games). However, like I’ve said about 97 times over the past two years, Bautista is NOT a .300 hitter, not even close. Batting .230 on the year, I’ll write it again – in a career that began in 2004 Jose Bautista has finished a season with a batting average over .265 one time – once. It’s an open question if he will make it two times this year.

J.A. Happ (-38, $155K)
Bombed in his last start (8 ER in 3.1 innings against Giants), Happ is sporting a 5.33 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Consider me shocked (if you could see my face right now you’d understand that I’m not shocked in the least – the guy just isn’t that good a pitcher). NL-only leaguers have had the benefit of Happ’s 76 KS in 72.2 innings, but even in that setup you’re paying a high price for some punchouts (as you can tell over at Fleaflicker, most people are doing the right thing an avoiding Happ).

Derek Lowe (-16, $181K)
If you had said back in March that on June 19th Lowe would have seven victories an a 3.78 ERA I’d have said he would have exceeded all expectations. However, he’s seen his ERA go from 2.15 to that 3.78 mark in his last four outings, though that could hardly be a shock for a guy who has only two more Ks than walks (28 Ks, 26 BBs) in 78.2 innings. Lowe is a middling innings eater who should only be used in certain matchups — and that K-rate is vomit inducing at 3.20 per nine.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 1: Did We Learn Anything?

There is finally a week of MLB games in the books. It might have two weeks for MLB to get all the teams on the field and playing, but how nice was it to see some action that actually counted? Did we learn anything in the first week of action? We learned that closers all over the place will have a hard time keeping their jobs if they keep this up. We learned how damaging losing one of your bullpen arms can be (see the Red Sox disastrous meltdown in the 9th with Andrew Bailey on the shelf after thumb surgery). We also learned that miracles can happen as the Mets started the year 3-0. What else did we learn that you might be able to apply to your Daily Joust fantasy baseball teams? So glad you asked.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Anyone who rostered Clayton Kershaw ($319,000 DJ Salary) on their DailyJoust club.

Kershaw, suffering from the flu, managed to toss just three scoreless innings before he had to remove himself from his Opening Day start. You pat him on the back for giving it the old college try, but he simply killed everyone who had him active, and that was a large amount of folks given that Kershaw was coming off a season in which he led NL hurlers in wins (21 – tied with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). Kershaw should be ready to take his turn in the rotation Tuesday in the Dodgers homer opener and the expectation is that he will be able to pitch as long as his performance dictates.

ALREADY MASHING

Yoenis Cespedes ($90K): His opening series, highlighted by that 462 foot bomb he blasted to dead center field, showed just what type of hitter Cespedes can be. However, pitchers will find his weaknesses. They will exploit his weaknesses. His swing is still very long and has holes. He’s never faced this level of competition on a daily basis. Speaking of that, he’s never played a season with 162 games. Cespedes has produced a nice prologue, but this book still has 25 chapters to go.

Zack Cozart ($76K): The Reds’ shortstop killed it in Week 1 going 6-for-11 with a homer and four RBI. That’s as good as it’s going to get. Expectations are very high for Cozart heading into his first full season. The good news is that his recovery from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm is complete. The bad news is that he isn’t as good a hitter as some think. Just look at his minor league numbers that include a .270 batting average, .332 OBP and .421 SLG. In 506 career games he hit 50 homers, stole 55 bases and produced that blah slash line. He’s simply not a prime time performer with a bat in his hand.

Rafael Furcal ($87K): After four games and 19 at-bats Furcal is hitting .526. As recently as 2010 he hit .300 with 22 steals, but he also appeared in 97 games that season, one of three years in the past four campaigns in which he didn’t appear in 100 games. That’s the key for the 34 year old – health. When he’s out there he can still produce, but the battle to drag his body out onto the field continues to be one that he often loses. Ride the hot hand, but realize that it’s all downhill from here.

Nick Markakis ($98K): Worries about his recovery from offseason abdominal surgery have been put to rest. It’s just three games, but Markakis has a triple, two homers an is hitting .556. One of the more stable commodities in the game, Markakis has produced at least 182 hits in each of the past five years. He plays everyday which helps to lead to the production, but he’s also failed to hit more than 18 homers the past three years, has seen his RBI total fail to hit 75 the past two years, and the last time he scored 80 runs was 2009. He’s consolid, but he’s unlikely to become a megastar in 2012.

ORIOLES PITCHERS

Through three games the Orioles are the best staff in baseball with a 1.00 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP as they led the club to a 3-0 start against the Twins. The real question though is – are the Orioles arms that good or are the Twins bats that bad? Go with the second choice. The Twins just didn’t hit the ball – at all – in the opening series of games. Here’s a quick run down of each of the Orioles hurlers who started those three games.

* Note: All three hurlers were/are great values given that the elite arms can approach or surpass $300,000.

Jake Arrieta ($151K): Win, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BBs, 4 Ks
Jason Hammel ($144K): Win, 8 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 3 BBs, 5 Ks
Tommy Hunter ($150K): Win, 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks

All three dominated the Twins and cost virtually nothing. If you were crazy enough to start any of them, the payoff was massive. Alas, none profile as strong long term options.

Arrieta is the best arm on this list. However, he struggled mightily at times during his first two seasons, an eventually had to have elbow surgery. He throw hard but still only struck out batters at a league average rate last season. He also walked batters like he was Jonathan Sanchez with a 4.45 per nine mark. Through 226.2 big league innings he has a 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.14 K/9 and 2.00 K/BB. It doesn’t get more bland than that.

Hammel is slightly intriguing. Freed from Colorado, perhaps he will live up to expectations with the Orioles (though pitching in the AL East isn’t exactly going to be easy). Unfortunately he’s coming off a putrid season that resulted in career worsts in K/9 (he lost nearly two batters off the mark he posted in 2009-10), while his BB/9 rate climbed by more than a batter per nine innings. He does a decent job in limiting the fly balls, but nothing in this skill set raises the flag up the pole at the moment.

Hunter is as average as you get when you look at his skills – worse than that actually. His K/9 rate is 4.96 for his career, more than two batters below the league average. At least he doesn’t beat himself with the walk so the result is a rather impressive 3.00 K/BB ratio. Still, he doesn’t miss any bats, is slightly below the league average with a 1.00 GB/FB mark (1.10 is the league mark), and he was never able to convince the Rangers to given him more than 128 innings of work in a season which should tell you something.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 7, 2011

Photo by Stefanie Seskin

You asked on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, so here are my answers.

Ricky Romero – look to sell high or does he have the stuff to pitch like this all year? Not a keeper league – @brianmck558

I’m always one for selling high as it’s one of the best ways going to come out ahead in the long run. Question though – how can you sell high on a guy after one start? I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out this year. It seems like everyone playing fantasy baseball is ready to change their thoughts on every player on the diamond after a weeks worth of games. Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that we were all happy with our teams? Please give Around the Horn – Slow Starts a listen to help bring you down from the ledge.

As for Romero, like I said, I don’t know how one start will change his outlook in anyone’s eyes. He is what we thought he was. That is a stable, young hurler with a whole lot to like. In his second full season last year Romero upped his K/9 mark to 7.46, dropped his BB/9 mark to 3.51 and upped his GB/FB rate to 2.08. Add all of that together and you have a pitcher, who if anything, may have been slightly undervalued on draft day 2011.

Matt Thornton still safe for CWS? If not, whose the next in line? Chris Sale? – @atlnagel

Here we go again. Unfortunately some people will worry about their relievers now that we’ve seen the Angels totally panic with their 9th inning role (see Diamond Musings). Matt Thornton will be fine and he will hold on to the 9th inning role all year long in my opinion. For those of you who have forgotten, here is how Thornton ranks amongst all big league pitchers who have thrown 200-innings the past three years.

2nd in base runners per nine innings (9.58)
Fourth in K/9 (10.91)
Sixth in ERA (2.70)
Ninth K/BB (4.03)

I’ve said it before, but I truly think he is the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and the numbers certainly seem to support that position.

AL-only league. Should I drop Mark Buehrle for Jake Arrieta? – @canebluedevil

One of the most consist hurlers in the game, Buehrle had a rough spring and has followed that up with two less than exciting outings to start the year. Still, you know what you are going to get with him. (1) You’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s done that for 10-straight year. (2) You’ll get lots of innings as he has thrown at least 200-innings in each of the last 10 years. Moreover, Buehrle is the only pitcher in baseball who has hit both of those marks each of the past 10 years. (3) You’ll get a pitcher who is fairly certain not to hurt you in ERA (his mark has been 4.00 three of the past four years). There is no upside, but there would appear to be little downside.

Arrieta is a wild card. What happens when/if Justin Duchscherer and Brain Matusz return to action – will Arrieta hold on to his starting spot? Arrieta throws hard but his control isn’t terrific (his BB/9 rate if we combine his work at Triple-A and the majors last year was 4.26), and that doesn’t help when your off-speed stuff grades out as nothing more than average. He’s young and would seem to have the brighter future than Buehrle, but for 2011 I think the easy call is to go with the veteran lefty from Chicago.

Albert Pujols and Brett Anderson for J.P. Arencibia, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter. Who gains? – @faizalkhamisa

Arencebia is a wild card. Early reports suggest that he will start three of five games. Will that be enough to generate anything other than bottom level 2nd catcher value? Probably not. Carpenter is a stud, but is his outlook that much better than that of Anderson for 2011? Check out the numbers for the last two years.

Anderson: 7.04 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 3.36 K/BB, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Carpenter: 6.80 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

A lot closer than you thought, isn’t it?

Pujols is so good and so phenomenally consistent that I’d prefer the Pujols/Anderson side of the deal, and you know that pains me to say since I’m such a big supporter of Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers