FanDuel Contest: $3000 Friday Tournament

Every Friday at BaseballGuys.com, I relay to you how you can sign up for a daily fantasy baseball game courtesy of FanDuel.com. Today is no different. I’ll spend a bit of time detailing how you can win some cash, and then I’ll give away all my secrets by letting you know who should, or shouldn’t, be in your lineup. Oh, and finally, I’m also going to be in the league, so you will get a shot to take down the obnoxious Ray Flowers.

* NOTE: This information about who to play on Friday is clearly something those of you in standard roto leagues should be looking at as well. Let’s just say guys like Prince Fielder and Dustin Pedroia may not be guys you want in your lineup Friday.

$3000 Friday Fantasy Baseball Tournament

You got $10 laying around? Do you want to spend it on a hot dog and beer? Sure you could do that, but in 15 minutes it would be gone. Well, until the hot dog starts repeating on you in about an hour an a half that is. Why not take that $10 and try to win part of the $3000 cash prize given away by FanDuel.com? Here’s what you do.

Sign up using this link.

Select your salary cap roster by 7 PM EDT, Friday.

Watch the games tonight. Pick up your cash (there are 37 spots that pay out… and even the 37th finisher doubles their initial investment).

So sign up, enjoy the night of games, and then win some cash. Maybe you’ll be able to buy a hot dog and a case of beer for your next Friday night.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brett Anderson

If you talk to some folks in the fantasy baseball world they will tell you they think that Brett Anderson of the Athletics can be a top-25 starting pitcher (the A’s seem to think so as well as they named him their Opening Day starter). You don’t have to draft him that highly this season, his ADP in NFBC Drafts is barely inside the top-40, so he should be viewed as a prime target on draft day right (for those of you interested, The Oracle currently has Brett Anderson inside his top-50 in his 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide)? Let’s see here…

Anderson had a solid rookie season in 2009. After coming into the year as one of the top-10 prospects in baseball according to Baseball America he went 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 175.1 innings (he also punched out 150 batters). However, the injuries then began to strike. After making 30 starts as a rookie he totaled just 32 starts in 2010-11. Anderson was terrific in 19 starts in year two with a 2.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but he made only 19 starts. In 2011 he lasted a mere 13 outings before he had to shut things down due to a wonky elbow that eventually required Tommy John surgery. Coming back from that injury in 2012 he tossed six games for the Athletics reminding everyone why there was so much interest in Anderson a few years ago (he went 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP). All told Anderson is 25-25 in his career with a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Those numbers certainly don’t jump off the page at you at all, but they are solid numbers for a young hurler who has spent his brief career in the American League.

Let’s take a look at some of his other career numbers.

Anderson owns a career minor league number of 9.4 punchouts per nine innings. Wow is right. The only way that I could be more impressed was if he didn’t walk anyone. Viola. For his 54 game minor league career his walk rate is under two per nine leading to a dominating 4.98 K/BB ratio. Simply, you can’t help but have success with a nearly 5:1 K/BB ratio. In fact, you will likely be a borderline dominant talent if you can do that. Anderson hasn’t been quite that good at the big league level though. He’s still not walking anyone with a 2.19 per nine mark, but the K-rate has really shrunk down to less than seven per nine innings (only in his rookie season has that mark been seven – the last three year’s he’s posted marks of 6.01, 6.59 and 6.43 per nine). As a result he’s given back 40 percent of that K/BB ratio with the Athletics, though a 3.14 career mark is still darn impressive (for his career Felix Hernandez owns a 3.10 mark, Jered Weaver is at 3.17 mark and Jake Peavy at 3.20.).

Anderson’s other calling card at the big league level has been his impressive ground ball tendencies. Anderson has posted a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent in each of his four seasons, and last year the mark was a career best at 59.8 (his career rate is 54.0 percent). When you don’t beat yourself with the free pass, and you keep the ball on the ground, success is very likely to follow.

Anderson’s health is key. It’s one thing to have an injury here or there. It’s another thing to have suffered injury induced reduction in your innings pitched total for 3-straight years. At this point the good news is that Anderson has been deemed healthy after a setback in Spring Training, and it seems like he has a legit shot to return to the 30 start total of his rookie season. However, it would be wise to avoid getting too aggressive with Anderson. After all, he did throw just 35 innings last season for the A’s after throwing only 25.1 innings in the minors. Would the A’s allow Anderson to throw 175.1 innings in 2013 as he did back in 2009? If he did he would be adding more than 100 innings to his total from last season. Even if the A’s let him go for 175 innings he’s not likely to be allowed to reach 200 innings, and that does somewhat cap his value somewhat. It’s also a concern that he’s only been able to throw 120 big league innings in only one of his four seasons, and that certainly increases the risk. Still, he’s a very talented arm who induces ground balls with the best of them, and that should leave the floor pretty elevated with Anderson as long as he can take the ball every five days. He’s a solid 4th starter type to add to you mixed league squad though one that may have a bit less upside than others would lead you to believe given the health concerns and the lack of punchouts.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

Cliff Lee (#3): He “missed,” but through no fault of his own. Lee won six games. S I X. Lee had a 3.16 ERA, the 15th best mark in baseball. Lee was the only pitcher in baseball with an ERA under 3.75 who failed to win at least 10 games. Lee also posted a 1.11 WHIP, the 10th best mark in the game. Lee also punched out 207 batters, the 10th best mark in baseball. Add in his 7.39 K/BB ratio, the best in baseball, and you have an elite hurler who was saddled by terrible support from his team.

Roy Halladay (#4): Failing to make 30 starts for the first time since 2004, Halladay had his first disappointing season since that year. Given his draft day cost 11 wins, a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 156.1 innings was a massive disappointment. Not only did he fail to throw 220 innings for the first time since 2005, he also had his lowest win total since ’04, his first ERA over 3.75 since 2004, and his worst WHIP in five years. It’s fair to wonder if the 35 year old will ever be dominant again.

Tim Lincecum (#6): Awful. I wanted to leave him off the list, to just ignore what happened, but of course I couldn’t. His ERA (5.18) was two runs above normal, and his K total was a five year low, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning with 190 in 186 innings. At least he wasn’t awful in the second half (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 Ks in 89.1 innings).

Jon Lester (#12): A rock for four years, that facade crumbled in 2012. Lester won only nine games after 4-straight 15 win seasons. He posted a 4.82 ERA after 4-straight years under 3.50. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, his highest mark in five years. He struck out 166 batters, his lowest total in four years. A letdown from a guy that seemed like such rock solid option on draft day.

Ricky Romero (#17): Just plain awful. See Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft.

Josh Beckett (#18): Won only seven games, lost a career worst 14, and saw his ERA bulge to 4.65. Beckett, who had struck out eight batters per nine in each of the past five seasons, didn’t even rack up seven per nine with a 6.97 mark, and the resulting 2.54 K/BB ratio was his worst mark since 2006. There’s no way around it – Beckett was a terrible disappointment.

Tommy Hanson (#23): He won a 4-year best 13 games while tossing 174.2 innings. He also basically matched his career mark with an 8.30 K/9 rate. However, he lost 10 games, saw his ERA soar to 4.48, and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. Clearly his shoulder wasn’t at 100 percent, and it’s fair to be concerned about his outlook moving forward if he truly has lost three mph off his heater.

Stephen Strasburg (#30): He won 15 games, struck out 197 batters, posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was spectacular. If only he had made four more starts…

Ubaldo Jimenez (#34): He’s never coming “back.” The first half version of 2010 was never going to return – he’s not the second coming of Bob Gibson – and at this point it’s fair to wonder if Ubaldo is even worth counting on at all in mixed leagues. Not only did he strike batters out at a career worst 7.28 per nine his walks exploded to a career worst 4.84. The resulting 1.51 K/BB ratio is really the only number you will need to focus on with Ubaldo – it signifies doom.

Johnny Cueto (#45): I admit it. I was wrong about Cueto. I wanted to see another year with strong work given that his 2011 effort was such an outlier compared to his performance over his first thee major league seasons. Consider Cueto to have definitively answered that call. Cueto is in line for NL CY Young consideration thanks to 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 Ks in a career best 217 innings.

Jake Peavy (#72): I didn’t think he, or Johan Santana, could do it. Santana failed as I expected (6-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117 innings), but Peavy was a fantasy star, especially given his draft day cost as Peavy went only 11-12, but he threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The ERA was his best mark since 2008, the WHIP his best since 2007, and 2012 was the first time that he pitched more than 120 innings in four years.

R.A. Dickey (#78): Oh come on, everyone missed on Dickey. Look back at your preseason guides and I think you’ll find my ranking was as favorable as most. Dickey had surgery on his abdominal tear and should be fine by opening day, so it’s not a real worry. Dickey won 20 games, was second in the NL in ERA (2.73) and first in strikeouts (230). A simply remakrbale season for a hurler who depends on a “trick” pitch almost exclusive. It might have been the most dominating season in the history of the game for a knuckleballer.

Jarrod Parker (#109): He won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the course of 181.1 innings. It was a great season by any measure. He was saddled with a 26 percent line drive rate, an incredibly high mark, or his effort might even have been a wee bit better.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July10, 2012

FIRST HALF SURPRISES

(1) Mike Trout most valuable players since call up.

(2) R.A. Dickey #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball.

(3) Edwin Encarnacion living up to expectations.

(4) Melky Cabrera excelling for Giants.

(5) Jason Kipnis 20/30 threat.

(6) Ian Desmond the top SS in fantasy.

(7) Jake Peavy and Johan Santana putting injury woes behind them?

(8) Lance Lynn has been great, but bullpen in future?

(9) Fernando Rodney best RP in game?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 3: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Bartolo Colon (+43 to $236,000 in Daily Joust salary): The A’s hurler has been fantabulistic this season striking out 19 batters while walking only two batters over 27.1 innings leading to a 2.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. This is as good as it gets. You can start him for the moment, he’s rolling right along after throwing 38-straight strikes in his last outing, but there is no chance he’ll keep this up so know that the good times will strop rolling – soon.

Jamie Moyer (+39, $179K): How he does it no one knows, but through three starts Moyer has a 2.55 ERA an a 1.30 WHIP. On the down side he has only six strikeouts through three starts, and check out the “offenses” that he has had success against: Astros, Giants, Padres. The only thing those three offenses have in common is that they are offensive on offense. Moyer has gotten batters out, and he’ll likely continue to do that at a respectable clip, but he’s not someone to count on.

Bruce Chen (+30, $220K): A younger version of Moyer? Not quite, but not too far off either. Chen is 0-1 through three starts but he has a 2.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. That along would be exciting. Add in 14 Ks and just two walks, and the excitement meter moves higher. Over his last 15 starts he is 7-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Pretty impressive stuff.

Jake Peavy (+20, $272K): Last year he had a 3.96 K/BB ratio, a bit under the radar given his 4.92 ERA. This season he’s racked up 21 Ks in just 19.2 innings, while walking only two batters leading to an otherwordly 10.50 K/BB ratio. He’s obviously not keeping this up, but it’s great to see that this once proud hurler is back to being an effective big league pitcher once again. A nice depth option.

A.J. Pierzynski (+12, $107K): Hitting .348 on the young season, A.J. has a .324 career OBP in over ,5,300 at-bats. A.J. is always a solid option at the plate, he’s hit at least .270 in five of the past six years, and he’s always around 10 homers and 55 RBI as a serviceable catcher two in mixed leagues. Make sure you don’t use his hot start to blind you to the facts (people aren’t ever at Fleaflicker where A.J. hasn’t exactly been a hot add to fantasy squads).

Jason Heyward (+11, $105K): Back to bashing, this former “superstar in training” is once again performing like a superstar in training. The five steals aren’t likely to be a pace he will be able to sustain, but it’s heartening to see that he’s cut his ground ball rate from 54 percent, his total his first two seasons, down to 40 percent this year. If he holds on to that gain he should have little problem surpassing his totals of 18 homers and 72 RBI from his rookie season.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Jon Lester (-20, down to $265K): Lester’s numbers look bad with that 5.82 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Still, before his last outing when he was bombed by the Rangers, that ERA stood at 2.40. It’s a sample size situation people. A big concern though is nine walks and just 12 Ks in 17 innings. Given how stable he has been the past few years it would be wise to remain patient, but it’s been a rough start.

Matt Garza (-10, +281K): There are no certainties in life. Still, I’m pretty damn certain that Garza will be what he always is at the end of the season, and that is one of the better non-elite arms in the game. Sure he was shelled in his last outing allowed two homers and six runs to the Marlins, but he still has a 3.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the year. Everyone would take that in a heartbeat if those were his season long numbers.

Brandon Morrow (-10, $245K): Concern is growing about his total of nine punchouts in 20 innings, so this is a big week for the righty who has starts against the Mariners and Royals. Lost amid concerns over his disappearing K-rate has been his 1.10 WHIP and the fact that he’s further dropped his walk rate down to 3.15 per nine (the number the last three years has been 5.68, 4.06 and 3.46).

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto has always had a good arm, one that excites scouts and fans alike, but he’s always had a big question mark surrounding his ability to stay healthy. He didn’t answer that concern in 2011 as he once again missed a bunch of starts due to injury, but he also did some rather interesting things when he was on the hill that deserve exploring.

NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw led the NL with a 2.28 ERA, just slightly ahead of the 2.31 mark posted by Cueto. However, Johnny threw only 156 innings this season before he was shut down with a strained lat (you need to toss 162 innings to be eligible to win the ERA title). This marked the fourth straight season that Cueto failed to throw 185 innings, but it was also the first time that he failed to last at least 171.1 frames. Do four years of work at this level prove that Cueto will never be a 200 inning a season guy? Of course not, but it’s also a clear cut warning that when you drat Cueto you should be setting your expectations at a 175 inning pitched season and nothing more.

So how did he post such a fantastic ERA that was more than a run an a half below his career mark of 3.83? That’s a great question. Here are a few possible explanations.

(1) He was lucky as all get out. His xFIP shows that his ERA should have been 3.90, just slightly off the 4.09 mark he posted in 2010 when his ERA was 3.64. Some further ammo for this argument is that his line drive rate was pretty darn low at 16.2 percent, 2.5 points below his career rate. Cueto also posted a BABIP of .249, another very low total. Given that his BABIP the first three years of his career was between .290 and .298 you have to be very concerned that he will be able to replicate that .249 mark from 2011.

(2) He became a new pitcher, and in so doing he was able to do things he had never done before. This isn’t a small point either. When I say he changed how he pitched we are talking about a radical shift.

Cueto has seen his K/9 rate go down for 3-straight years: 8.17, 6.93, 6.69 and 6.00. In the process he has gone from an impressive power arm to one that is more than a batter below the league average in K/9. That’s an awful trend, both in the real world and the fantasy game.

Cueto has offset some of the loss of strikeouts by walking fewer batters. He hasn’t seen his BB/9 go down 3-straight years, but it’s awful close: 3.52, 3.20, 2.71 and 2.71.

Still, despite the improvement in the free passes, because of the loss of punchouts, his 2.21 K/BB mark in 2011 was below the league average of 2.30 and below his career rate of 2.29.

Given all that, you’re probably still asking yourself, ‘but Ray, how did he have so much success given what appears to be some poor trends?’ Remember when I said he basically reinvented himself on the hill? I wasn’t kidding. No longer a dominating arm, Cueto has become a ground ball master. After posting a ground ball rate below 42 percent in each of his first three seasons, that number exploded in 2011 climbing all the way to 53.7 percent. If he had thrown six more innings, enough to qualify for the ERA title, that ground ball rate would have been the 11^th best mark in baseball. Think about that. He went from being a slightly below average ground ball hurler through three seasons to being an elite ground ball arm over night. That just doesn’t happen. IF, and it’s a huge if, he can keep the ground ball rate over 50 percent he won’t need to strike out eight guys per nine innings to have success. IF he can also keep the ball out of the air, perhaps he can replicate that 0.46 HR/9 mark that he posted in 2011 which was less than half his career rate.

So in Cueto you have a slightly unreliable arm who always seems to come down with an injury at some point. You also have a pitcher who has drastically changed him pitching style going from being Jake Peavy to Derek Lowe seemingly over night. If Cueto can replicate the ground ball rate from last season he’ll have a chance at a solid follow up to his 2011 effort, but even then it would be surprising if he was able to keep his ERA within a run of the 2.31 mark he posted last season.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Misses

In my last column I broke down my greatest “hits” of starting pitchers, those that I identified and suggested you add to your stable of hurlers for the 2011 season who succeeded. Today I’ll ding myself by pointing out the hurlers that failed to deliver based on my personal expectations.

For the “hits” see PART I.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

MISSES

Josh Johnson (#8): Shoulder woes limited Johnson to just nine starts and 60.1 innings in 2011. He was spectacular when on the hill with a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, not to mention 56 Ks in 60.1 innings, but his future is cloudy as he simply cannot be counted on to take the hill every five games.

Roy Oswalt (#13): Back woes limited him to his worst season, possibly ever. He won only nine games against 10 loses, lasted just 139 innings (his lowest total since 2003), and saw his K/9 dip to 6.02 (the worst mark of his career). He wasn’t horrible with a 3.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he was drafted to be a strong #2 hurler, not a depth play.

Chad Billingsley (#18): It’s time to give up on him becoming an elite pitcher, but he should still be better than he was this season. Chad produced a five year low with 11 victories, a career worst 4.21 ERA, a 5-year worst in K/9 (7.28) and a 5-year high in BB/9 (4.02). Simply put, he wasn’t very good, but he’s still only 27 years old and did toss 188 innings, his fourth straight year hitting that mark.

Francisco Liriano (#23): He will never be the pitcher he was before he blew his arm out, so put that thought out of your head as he’s lost three mph off his fastball since his heyday. As a result, his K/9 fell a batter and a half from his career rate, down to 7.50 per nine, and he was simply dreadful at throwing strikes walking 5.02 batters per nine innings. That’s just shameful.

Ryan Dempster (#25): The good – he threw more than 200 innings with at least 170 K’s for a fourth straight season. The bad – his ERA was awful at 4.80 and his WHIP wasn’t much better at 1.45. A lot of that has to do with his horrible start to the year, though his 3.70 xFIP was actually right in line with his previous three seasons (3.69, 3.76 and 3.74). He wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be.

Ricky Nolasco (#29): I give up. The guy has tantalizing skills including 4-straight years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.36, and his xFIP keeps saying that his ERA should be well below where it always is (5.06, 4.51 and 4.67 the last three years). I’m still gonna draft him late in 2012, but only at a point where I know he’ll give me value versus at a level that I hope he will be able to live up to.

Brett Anderson (#30): Couldn’t help this one as there was no way to predict that he would need Tommy John surgery in July. He ended the year 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (#31): He still owns hellacious stuff, see his 9.06 K/9 mark, but he rarely seems to know where it is going (see his ghastly 5.86 BB/9 mark). It’s as simple as this; until he starts throwing strikes he’s simply not someone that you can trust, at all.

John Lackey (#42): Seems like everything that could go wrong with the Boston righty did in 2011. He won 12 games, his 9th straight season of double-digits, but he threw a nine year low of 160 innings. The Sox may not have been complaining though given his 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Amazingly, his K/9 has gone down each of the last six years while his BB/9 has gone up each of the last four.

Ian Kennedy (#55): No one predicted this effort. I’ll tip my hat to the guy as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 Ks. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of repeating that effort, but he was dynamite in 2011.

Jake Peavy (#56): I thought putting him in the second half of the top-100 was being fair. Turns out, it wasn’t. Peavy only lasted 111.2 innings, posted an abysmal 4.92 ERA, and he has serious questions about whether or not he will ever be able to even take the ball 30 times a year again.

Michael Pineda (#95): Here is my quote, and my reasoning as to why he was so low in my original rankings. “I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.” I totally missed the time line which is why my ranking of him was so off.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June17, 2011

(1) Interleague play messes with players.

(2) Dan Uggla still can’t get her going.

(3) Jake Peavy to the bullpen?

(4) Daric Barton headed to minors?

(5) Ryan Vogelsong continues to amaze.

(6) Tommy Hanson dealing with shoulder woes.
(NOTE: After this video was posted the Braves put Hanson on the 15 DL after an MRI revealed shoulder inflammation).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 8, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy to DL with groin issue.

(2) Adam Dunn to get a few days off as did Alex Rios in an attempt to wake both up.

(3) Knees bothering Jimmy Rollins and Mark Teixeira.

(4) Carl Pavano pitching well of late, really.

(5) Justin Masterson has no wins in eight starts despite pitching well.

(5) Jason Heyward called out by Chipper Jones.

By Ray Flowers