Draft Day Challenge, May 2

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. A.J. Pierzynski

Wieters is always a strong option. He’s only faced Blanton three times but he has two hits. He’s also driven in five runs in his last four games.

I gotta be honest. It’s really hard to find a viable option at catcher Thursday based on matchups. Pierzynski is only 5-for-14 in his career, and he’s been hurt of late, but it’s against his former team so maybe he summons something special.

FIRST BASE
1. Mitch Moreland
2. Edwin Encarnacion

Mr. Moreland is batting .429 the past week with nine hits, including four doubles, in 21 at-bats. He faces Mr. Peavy, and their history only includes six at-bats. Moreland has stroked a hit three times, twice going deep, on his way to five RBIs.

Encarnacion has blasted five homers, driven in eight runs and has scored seven times the past seven days. He’s only 1-for-11 against Ryan Dempster.

SECOND BASE
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Omar Infante

Pedroia is hitting .435 the past week. He’s hitting .330 on the year. He’s hit .309 in his career against lefties. He faces lefty J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays.

The Tigers face Jordan Lyles in his first appearances of the 2013 season (he owns a 5.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 235.1 big league innings). Infante is batting .381 with two homers and seven runs scored over his last 23 plate appearances.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2.Manny Machado

Headley went deep Wednesday and he could keep the good times a rollin’ Thursday against Travis Wood a hurler he has beaten for six hits, including two big flies, in 12 at-bats.

Machado faces Mr. Blanton. Machado also has scored seven times the past week while batting, get this, .406 with an OPS of 1.112. He’s hot, hot, hot.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Yuniesky Betancourt

Andrus has had a disappointing start to the year. But things are slowly improving. He’s hitting .292 the past week and he faces Peavy whom he has four hits against in 12 at-bats.

Betancourt has four homers and seven RBIs in the past week. It’s a mirage. Maybe he can keep it going for another day against J. Westbrook whom he has gone 8-for-22 against in his career (.364).

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. B.J. Upton

Markakis faces the very hittable Joe Blanton Thursday, a righty whom he has rapped six hits against in 12 at-bats (he also driven in four runs).

It all starts today. Upton remembers he’s an elite talent. He faces homer prone Dan Haren who has, shockingly, given up homers to Upton. In 31 at-bats Upton is hitting .323, but it’s the five homers that really stick out.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Kyle Kendrick
2. Travis Wood
3. Ervin Santana
4. Jake Westbrook

Kendrick is the type of pitcher I avoid in roto leagues, he’s got soft skills, but if you’re looking at a one day matchup it’s not always so clear cut. Over his last four starts he is undefeated with a 1.29 ERA an a WHIP under 1.00. Now he faces the Marlins. He’s also 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA against the Marlins since 2010. Nuff said.

Wood has lasted at least six innings in all five of his starts and never allowed more than two earned runs. The Padres are not an offensive juggernaut by any means either.

Santana is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP the past three weeks. He plays in an early game, so hopefully you get this news on the quick. He faces a Rays club that is 10th in the AL in runs, is batting .244 with a .311 OBP, and one that has had long stretches of ineffectiveness.

I wrote earlier this week to sell Jake Westbrook in Surgers and Slumpers, so why am I suggesting you start him Thursday? Remember, we’re talking one start here, not 25. Westbrook does have an ERA under 1.00, and he faces Wily Peralta of the Brewers who hasn’t exactly been lights out. Westbrook also has a 3.06 ERA in his eight career starts against the Brew Crew.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to the site.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 12: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late.

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DJ?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Matt Holliday (+21, $128,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
And you were doubting him just a few weeks ago, admit it. Holliday is on fire over his last eight games as he’s produced 17 hits, two homers, 12 RBI and nine runs. In the process he’s jacked up his average to .299 on the year with 12 homers, 47 RBI and 48 runs scored. Guess what? That puts him on pace for his traditional .300-25-100-100 effort. The greats usually figure it out and end up producing by the time the season is over.

Tommy Milone (+70, $241)
Doesn’t it seem like his name should have two “L’s” in it? I need to talk to his parents about that. When a rookie starts the year 7-5 with a 1.21 WHIP you can’t help but be excited about it. However, his ERA is slightly below average at 4.13 and he’s taken the whole “I’m Clayton Richard and you only pitch me when I’m at home” situation to a whole other level. In eight starts on the road Milone is 2-4 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. In six starts at home in Oakland he’s the best pitcher ever at 5-1 with a 0.99 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. There’s your blue print on how to use him.

Chris Nelson (+20, $93K)
With Troy Tulowitzki out of action, Marco Scutaro has moved on to short leaving second base to Nelson. Displaying an uncommon power bat given his “game,” Nelson has gone deep three times with two doubles and a triple over his last eight games leading to nine RBIs. He’s also lifted his average from .226 to .268 the past 10 days thank to five games with at least two hits. He makes an excellent short term play given how hot he has been and for the fact that he should qualify at second and third in all leagues (many seem to be slow to the party, just take a look at his owned rate at Feaflicker).

Jake Westbrook (+105, $320K)
The last time he took the hill he tossed the 14th complete game of his career as he allowed only one unearned run to the Tigers. Over his last three outings he’s been “quality” each time out lasting at least six innings with no more than three earned runs allowed. One of the main reasons for his success is that he’s walked only two batters in those three games. It’s really pretty simple. When he avoids the free pass and keeps the ball down in the zone he has a lot of success. He’s a two-time starter this week against the Marlins and Pirates, and that would seem to make him a solid play this week.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Felix Doubront (-60, $274K)
After a run of 5-straight games allowing two or fewer earned runs, Felix has now permitted 12 earned runs over his last three starts as his ERA has gone from 3.75 to 4.31. The strikeouts are terrific, 85 in 79.1 innings is impressive, but his recent cold spell has knocked his ratios down to below league average (his WHIP is 1.35). He’s 8-3 and pitches for a strong squad, but it might be time to consider whether or not you should be counting on him to lead your fantasy rotation.

Bryce Harper (-19, $73K)
Hey, it was bound to happen. Bryce Harper might end up being the next Mickey Mantle as some say, but let’s not forget he can’t legally buy a Jack & Coke – not by a longshot – and that he isn’t exactly flush with professional experience at this stage of his life. At his current pace he’d produce the following numbers over 150 games (he’s played 50): 21 homers, 60 RBI, 95 runs and 14 steals. That’s impressive for any player no doubt, never mind one his age, but he’s seen his average fall .017 points the past 10 games (.286), the same total his OBP has dropped (.367). Everything is still impressive, but perhaps, just maybe, there’s a slowdown on the horizon?

Trevor Plouffe (-24, $87K)
Plouffe has a rather amazing 15 homers in just 175 at-bats this year thanks to his insane run the past month, but let’s keep things real here. He is batting .246 with a .327 OBP, hardly impressive numbers. He has 40 strikeouts in 175 at-bats. He has just one long ball and two RBI over his last eight games. You added him for nothing so who’s complaining, but his outlook in the second half of the season isn’t exactly golden.

Giancarlo Stanton (-21, $62K)
Look at his monthly totals. Maybe Jay Bruce has some company for the streakiest high level power bat in the game.

April: .247-1-9
May: .343-12-30
June: .205-3-5

Like I have said every time someone has asked me, this guy just isn’t a .300 hitter. His current mark of .274 seems about right, and he’s on pace for 35 homers and 100 RBIs which would also be impressive, but that transcendent season people were hoping for isn’t likely to materialize.

DAILY CONTEST

I’ve likely got some big news coming on this front this week, so keep an eye our for that. As for right now…

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 6: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ryan Dempster (+14, $357K in DailyJoust salary)
Working around an injury, Dempster has taken the hill five times this year with spectacular results: 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and never allowing more than two runs in a start. He’s also posted a 3.60 K/BB ratio while striking out 36 batters in 35.1 innings. You really can’t pitch much better than he has to this point. The only negative is the anemic offensive support that he has received as he’s failed to win a game, again, despite only allowing more than one run one time (he allowed two runs to the Brewers). Shame on you Cubs.

Christian Friedrich (+77, $228K)
Was recalled to take the spot of Guillermo Moscoso in the Rockies rotation and he had a solid first start allowing two runs, only one earned, over six innings against the Padres. However, the start was against the Padres, and it was at Petco, so that makes profiling the effort difficult. This left hander has had a rough couple of years after once being regarded as one of the better lefty pitching prospects in the game. Last season he went 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA at Double-A, so it would be wise to be very wary of him turning into Lance Lynn anytime soon.

Jimmy Rollins (+11, $72K)
No player on the Phils has struggled worse than Rollins with Howard-Utley out of the mix. Hitting just .230 with one homer the only thing keeping Rollins afloat is his seven steals. For a guy with a putrid .275 OBP his 17 runs scored in 35 games isn’t bad, and it’s not like he’s going to be losing any playing time, but this has still been a painfully slow start to the year. Just a season removed from 16 homers, 30 steals and 87 runs scored, did Rollins get “old” overnight? I’m betting he didn’t.

Yovani Gallardo (+48, $243K)
After that shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (8 ER in 2.0 IP) Gallardo, as he always does, rebounded in his last two outings to allow a total of five runs while striking out 12 batters in 12 innings. In one of the odder starts to a season of any arm out there, if you remove his two starts against the Cardinals – 14 ERA in 5.2 innings – here are his numbers from his other five starts: 2.45 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP. Just don’t pitch him when he faces the Cards and you would appear to be fine.

Jake Westbrook (+52, $323K)
We’ve seen plenty of pitchers have their career revived while pitching in St. Louis, so maybe Westbrook is the next arm in that line to do so. His 1.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through six starts are special, especially for a guy with carer marks of 4.27 and 1.39. Only once in six starts has he failed to produce a quality start, and he wasn’t awful in that outing allowing four runs. Through 41 innings he has a solid 2.70 K/BB ratio, but it’s one full batter above his career rate, while his 5.93 K/9 mark is also a batter above his carer norm. Pitchers don’t usually post career bests in those numbers in their 12th big league season. Solid but unspectacular, he has nowhere to go but down from here.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Homer Bailey (-47, $162)
Blessed with a big arm, Bailey simply cannot form any type of consistency. A run of 4-straight quality starts was broken up by a stinker against the Brewers as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings. He’s also been taken deep six times in six starts helping to explain his 4.93 ERA. His current K/BB rate of 1.85 points to just how middling a performer he continues to be (over at Fleaflicker he is only owned in seven percent of leagues). It certainly doesn’t seem like his rotation spot is in serious jeopardy, but at some point the Reds are going to need to see some improvement, or at least some consistency.

Asdrubal Cabrera (-19, $96K)
Hitting .315 on the season would be a tremendous accomplishment for a guy who owns a .283 career mark. However, Cabrera was hitting .356 literally a week ago so he’s clearly slumped a wee bit. Asdrubal one one RBI in his last seven games, and he has just three homers and two steals on the season. Where is the guy that went 25/17 last year? He’s just where I said he would be in his Player Profile – he’s gone.

Ross Detwiler (-52, $247K)
Ross has made six starts, has failed to allow more than three runs in an outing, owns a 2.10 ERA an a 1.02 WHIP through 34.1 innings. It’s impossible to find any fault with his efforts so far this year. As I’ve said before he doesn’t have the underlying skills to support this hot start, but he is generating a ground ball rate of 54 percent with 6.55 K’s per nine, so maybe the landing will be a soft one even when the regression comes. So maybe he isn’t going to win the Cy Young award this season but he’s still had a wonderful start to the season.

Dan Haren (-80, $227K)
If his current owner is panicking after he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start, or because he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, now is the time to pounce. Haren is sporting a 7.33 K/9 mark, slightly better than last season, and he’s currently walking a mere 1.88 batters per nine innings (career 1.89). He’s also been saddled with a .323 BABIP which might continue, but at the same time he’s never had a mark above .311 for a season and owns a career mark of .290. I’m also pretty confident he won’t end the year with a 22.9 percent line drive rate which would be a career worst. Given time to normalize Haren should do just that.

Ian Kennedy (-36, $229K)
He was never going to match last season, so put that out of your head (see his Player Profile). Still, prior to giving up six runs in his last outing, Kennedy had a 3.23 ERA through six starts showing that’s he’s still darn likely to be a successful arm. Through seven outings Kennedy owns an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio and his GB/FB, HR/F and line drive rates are all pretty darn similar to last season, so just pass on from the bad outing the last time he took the hill and realize this is still one fine fantasy option.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Quick Starting Pitchers

Most starting pitchers have only taken the mound two or three times. But as we all know in the fantasy game, it’s never too early to try an improve a fantasy squad. Given that line of thought, I decided to discuss some of the under the radar types that are off to strong starts for their respective clubs. I’ll assume the following for the sake of the discussion: we’re in a 12 team mixed league that starts nine pitchers on a weekly basis. There are certainly scenarios in this setup where every pitcher on this list might have some use, but that doesn’t mean any of them should be making 30 starts for you this season in a 12 team setup.

Blake Beavan, Mariners: 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
Beavan hasn’t beat himself in two starts issuing only one free pass, and that will be key for a guy who had only 42 strikeouts last year in 97 innings. Beavan pitches to contact and was successful doing that last year with a 4.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 15 starts. The problem is, that level of production is all you have a right to expect from the Mariners tall righty – and that just doesn’t move the needle.

Kevin Correia, Pirates: 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
In two starts he has been the quintessential ‘let the batters put the ball in play and let my defense work for me’ type. Through 12 innings he’s only walked three batters while striking out just five. However, he’s also pitched in two solid pitcher’s barns in Los Angeles and San Francisco, and that’s likely part of the reason for his success. Also, don’t fool yourself, Correia simply isn’t a very good hurler. For his career, and we’re over 900-innings now, he’s posted a 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.23 K/9 and 1.86 K/BB. Simply put, he’s as blah as blah gets though it should be noted that in his last 16 starts on the road his ERA is 2.45 while his WHIP is 1.09.

Matt Harrison, Rangers: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
The Twins and the White Sox did little against Harrison who has picked right up from where he was last season when he won 14 games with a 3.89 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Harrison has a heavy ball that leads to a lot of grounders, but he’s not an elite ground ball hurler (46 percent of batted balls). Given that he doesn’t miss many bats and that he had a career best 6.11 K/9 mark last season, his margin for error isn’t exactly large. With wins being variable, this isn’t a skill set that necessarily points to long term fantasy success, but he should be pretty solid.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
A first round selection in 2007, Porcello has the stuff to be a major asset to the Tigers. The Rays and White Sox witnessed that first hand as Rick went seven innings against both club while issuing just  single free pass in the process. Poised to produce a breakout, this ground ball ace still isn’t an overly intriguing fantasy option (52 percent of batted balls end up rolling through the infield grass). Why is that? The lack of strikeouts of course. I target starters with a K/9 mark of at least six. Through 91 big league starts Porcello has been deficient with a 4.84 mark. Again, real world success is certainly possible, but in 12 team mixed leagues Porcello is more of a match up option than someone you should be rolling out there every week.

Joe Saunders, D’backs: 1-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
A two-start pitcher this week, Saunders followed up seven shutout innings against the Padres by allowing one run over seven innings against the Pirates Monday. Saunders is as blah as it gets. Just take a look at his numbers over 163 career starts: 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.03 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, 1.27 GB/FB. Purely a matchup option, I’d hope that Saunders is only being used when he’s facing the Pirates or Padres, or when he’s starting twice in a week.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Like so many others on this list, Westbrook is a better real world pitcher than he is a fantasy weapon. Westbrook lasted seven innings in each of his first two starts, and his ratios are wonderful. Still, he has only four punchouts in the two games while he’s issued five free passes. Westbrook will win games, and he’s looked pretty strong since spring, but the guys has a career ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.39 and his career best for Ks is 128. I’ll pass.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers